Chances of bye if we beat Hahvahd

Hello,

Seeing as how non-TUC Hahvahd beat Clarkson tonight (amid other results) what are the chances that we get a bye into the NCAAs if we win tomorrow... I think at this point an at large bid must be sown up...

Thanks

actually hahvahd is a TUC if the season ended now at 14-14_ and if cornell beats them and the selection is sunday (as it will be) then hahvahd is not a tuc.
i was wondering the same thing. if cornell wins tomorrow, Cornell needs upsets mostly- msu to lose to nmu tomorrow, unh to beat maine, osu to beat umich, bama vs wayne state doesnt matter, and cc to beat scsu. just guesses, no math done.
ok plane leaves in 5.5 hrs. time to sleep!
way to go today, RED, keep it up tomorrow!!!!!

Based on my rough analysis, A CU victory tomorrow coupled with a loss by Maine to UNH in the Hockey East championship would put us in pretty good shape for a bye. Maine's win over BU tonight knocked BU out of a bye, but at the same time kept Cornell very much on the bubble as far as a tournament bid if we should lose tomorrow. If BU had beaten Maine, we would be pretty much assured of an NCAA bid at this point. My money is on Cornell and UNH tomorrow - I'll live with one more day of uncertainty.

I know most of the people in here love to go back and forth with the PWR rankings and figuring out where we'll stand if we beat this team and another team looses to another and so on and so forth, but Cornell is doing just what they should, going out and kicking ass. I honestly believe if we don't win tomorrow we don't deserve a bye, and if we do then we do, I don't need the PWR to tell me that. Personally, I'll be happy to see them beat Harvard and put them below .500, because, well, THEY SUCK!

Ah, sorry everyone, I'm just pissed off already on how the Boston Globe will portray the game tomorrow. I'm sure they'll pump up Harvard even though they're 14-14-4 and Cornell is 24-6-2 Don't mind me...

Now if I've been reading everything correctly, I believe that there is some degree of subjectivity allowed in the awarding of byes. Apparently tradition would dictate awarding a bye to a team that wins both the RS and tournament ECAC cahmpionships. That said, I still think a win tomorrow would leave us very much on the bye bubble.

UNH has never won a Hockey East championship. Maybe they're due.

(No lectures on probability theory, Keith.)

If we lose tommorrow, just in terms of an at-large bid, we should definitely hope that, from a rough analysis:

CCHA
Should hope that Mich St. wins the CCHA, but they're the only team currently ahead of us in PWR still left (Ohio St., Mich, and No. Mich are also left). So an upset could definitely be in the cards.

WCHA
Denver v. Minnesota--doesn't really matter, they're both going to make the tournament at #2 and #3 in PWR.

HE
Maine vs. UNH; should definitely hope that UNH will win, though its likely that regardless, as Maine is currently at #5 in the PWR, that they'll make the tourney also.

MAAC
Mercyhurst vs. Quinnipiac...This doesn't really matter; no other MAAC teams would threaten Cornell.

So I guess the only matchup we'd have to really pay attention to other than Harvard vs. Cornell is the CCHA tourney which finishes on Sunday. HUGE upsets in the other conferences-WCHA/HE-aren't really possible anymore. And I think we could afford an upset of Mich St. in that tourney, though I'm not sure how much our PWR would be brought down by a loss to Harvard (which would then def be a TUC), and a subsequent possible two wins by a team right behind Cornell-Mich or North. Mich.

Make sense?

I don't think the NCAA committee believes much in tradition.

For a number of years there was a "rule" that a team finishing first in the regular season and then winning its conference tournament would automatically be given a bye. Now there are five conferences and only four byes, so bye-bye bye rule.

My thoughts:

WCHA: Denver vs. Minn very much matters. If we win and Denver loses we'll flip the comparison with DU due to the TUC category. So definitely go Gophers! As for the consy, we've got both St.C and CC beat in comparison if we win, but CC could catch us on RPI if we lose and they win. So probably root for the Huskies.

HEA Definitely root for UNH. We may have a chance at passing Maine if they lose even though we definitely lose the comparison with them. We can't catch UNH in any way, shape or form so go Cats!

CCHA A little tricky here. I've only tried a subset of possibilities but I think the only scenario where we don't get at least an at-large bid is if there's a CCHA upset (NMU or OSU) and Michigan passes our RPI. But I don't Michigan can pass us without winning at the Joe. Worst I can come up with is us finishing ties in comparisons with UM but winning the H2H comp. So I think we're in already. If I'm right then root for MSU and UM to lose tomorrow to maximze our seeding potential - we might be able to pass MSU if they lose to NMU.

In other conferences, root for UAH to Wayne State (minor RPI help). The MAAC is entirely irrelevant. In the ECAC consy, I think an RPI win is slightly better because we played them 3 times rather than 2 for Clarkson (admittedly a miniscule difference).

A bye is a very o long shot the way things are looking at the moment.

HEA Definitely root for UNH. We may have a chance at passing Maine if they lose even though we definitely lose the comparison with them. We can't catch UNH in any way, shape or form so go Cats!


I think "we definitely lose the comparison with them" is a little strong - we're only 0.0029 apart in RPI, and while I haven't looked at the OPer and OOPer effects yet, a Maine loss and a CU win should put CU's RPI above Maine's, and the 2-2 comparison would go to Cornell based on RPI.

I know I had a reason for saying that we definitely lose the comparison with Maine but I can't see why right now. Maybe I was wrong. Hmm... Maybe I was thinking BU? Pretty sure that we can't win the comparison with them.

Well I ran what appears to be the nightmare scenario in JTW's script, and it looks like we still get in. If we lose, both Michigan and State lose in their semis, and Maine wins, we still get a bid (and actually get Mercyhurst in a 4-5 game in the one scenario I tried). Now this was completely unscientific on my part, but I think we'll be ok (especially because we're gonna beat Harvard )

If Miss Cleo can land in the FTC hinterlands for this why not you, too?

The process of awarding byes is not supposed to be subjective. They award the byes based on the pairwise comparisons. The problem is that in some scenarios, it's not clear what that means. Most of the time, the top four teams beat everyone else in the PWCs, but for instance if all of the favorites win today and tomorrow, except that NMU beats Michigan State, we end up 4th in the PWR, but we lose the individual comparison with BU, who lose the PWC with Michigan. Meanwhile, BU and Michigan lose PWCs to St. Cloud, who lose to us, etc. So "subjective" is not quite right. "Unpredictable in some unusual cases" would be more like it.

I agree, it's hard to imagine there will not be an at large bid even with a loss tonight, but let's make it a moot point. Just win, baby!

If all of the of the final comparisons are completely trasitive without any ties or craziness then awarding the byes will be trivial and not subjective. But if there is any craziness then it all depends on which objective way you consider the problem. And that could be considered subjective.

Bâby and everyon else, too.

St. Cloud just knocked off Colorado College - bumping Cornell up to 7 in PWR. Right now, it looks as though losses by Maine and Michigan State (and a win by Cornell, of course) will put us into a bye position. We're still uncomfortably close to being left out of the tournament should we lose, though. Let's go Red!

Excuse me, I meant the other way 'round - CC beat St. Cloud 2-1. Anyway, it was good for us. That's what matters right now.