numbers, formulations, predictions, and musings

so it is about that time now. one weekend left. we can all start saying what would be the best matchup for cornell and think about win/loss/tie combos that would be best for cornell for 1) ecac playoff pairing 2) computer rankings/comparisons.
so lemme just put down what i did and then stopped when i failed to recall the tie breakers for seedings... this is not woofing, just having fun with numbers!

team (record) @ team (record) winner new record, new record
brown (14-11-2) @ PU (9-16-2) brown wins ---> 15-11-2, 9-17-2
cornell (19-6-2) @ RPI (15-11-4) cornell wins --->20-6-2, 15-12-4
vermont (3-24-2) @ tech (13-13-6) clarkson wins ---> 3-25-2, 14-13-6
harvard (11-12-4) @ yale (8-17-2) harvard wins ----> 12-12-4, 8-18-2
'gate (13-15-2) @ union(12-12-6) tie ----> 13-15-3, 12-12-7
dc (12-10-5) @ SLU(T) (9-19-2) slu(t) wins ---> 12-11-5, 10-19-2

saturday
'gate @ RPI 'gate wins ---> 14-15-3, 15-13-4
cornell @ union cornell wins ---> 21-6-2, 12-13-7
vermont @ SLUT slut wins ---> 3-26-2, 11-19-2
dc @ clarkson clarkson wins ---> 12-12-5, 15-13-6
harvard @ PU harvard wins ---> 13-12-4, 9-18-2
brown @ yale browns wins ---> 16-11-2, 8-19-2

final ecac standings
1. cornell 36 points (21-6-2)
2. harvard 27 points (13-12-4)
clarkson 27 points (15-13-6)
4. brown 26 points (16-11-2)
5. gate 25 points (14-15-3)
6. dartmouth 23 points (12-12-5)
7. rpi 21 points (15-13-2)
8. st lawrence 20 points (11-19-2)
9. princeton 18 points (9-18-2)
. union 18 points (12-13-7)
11. yale 16 points (8-19-2)
12. vermont 7 points (3-26-2)

so my thoughts were this : get dc below .500 since cornell lost twice to them, harvard is a wash (though bad with comparisons?), clarkson above .500, brown above .500, bring gate to .500, rpi above .500 + aforementioned -- the only problem is that union loses two to bring 'gate above .500 and give cornell wins. so i changed it to a 'gate union tie. hopefully this would mean a cornell-PU playoff
so... if tie breakers make it be:

cornell v PU (cornell in two) cornell 23-6-2, 9-20-2
harvard v union (union in two) 13-14-2, 14-13-7
clarkson v slu(t) (SLU in two) 15-15-2, 13-19-2
brown v rpi (brown in two) 18-11-2, 15-15-2
'gate v dc ('gate in two) 16-15-3, 12-14-5

next round: (thurs)
union v slu (union wins) 15-13-7, 13-20-2

next round: semis
cornell v union cornell wins 24-6-2, 14-14-7
brown v 'gate 'gate wins 18-12-2, 17-15-3

final:
cornell v 'gate cornell wins 25-6-2, 17-16-2

final records .500+
cornell 25-6-2
'gate 17-16-2
brown 18-12-2
union 14-14-2
clarkson 15-15-2
rpi 15-15-2
record vs these guys according to my formulas... 10-0-0
holy crap that took a while. time to sleep. hope i did it correctly

ok make that 12-0-0. cant edit the message for some reason

Hey, I think I actually followed that.

Too bad Brown can't go 0-1-1 to finish 10th. Then Cornell could theoretically wind up with a Quint sweep counting as wins over TUC as well.

Will record against TUC actually swap some of the direct pairs? I was surprised to see how the 3 point weekend still stuck Cornell down in 11th in PWR.

JY, those aren't quite the right playoff matchups in the scenario you describe. Clarkson won the season series from Harvard 1-0-1, so they would finish second on the head-to-head tiebreaker. And Princeton and Union split, but Princeton would win the top-five tiebreaker, 5 points to 4, so they'd be ninth place, which would make the matchups Uion@Cornell, Princeton@Clarkson, SLU@Harvard, RPI@Brown, and Dartmouth@Colgate.

A tool you might want to use to work out hypotheticals is the ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script,
[slack.net] (also indexed at [slack.net] ), which will work out the standings including tiebreakers for any set of results you enter.

The self-service hypothetical interface to "You Are The Committee" ( [slack.net] ) can be used to work out the pairwise comparisons given hypothetical results, but with so many games left to play, there's no easy way to enter in all the results. (It gets a lot easier once we get down to the conference tournaments.)

jtw,
thanks, i could not find the tie breakers late last night so i just hoped for the best