2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by Trotsky
2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: April 14, 2014 03:38PM
Ridiculously early first pass TBRW prediction for 2015, based on the currently announced early departures:
1. Union (33 pts)
2. Colgate (29)
3. Cornell (26)
4. Quinnipiac (25)
5. Yale (24)
6. Dartmouth (21)
7. St. Lawrence (21)
8. Clarkson (21)
9. RPI (20)
10. Harvard (17)
11. Brown (15)
12. Princeton (12)
If Ghost leaves, Union would drop to 32 pts.
1. Union (33 pts)
2. Colgate (29)
3. Cornell (26)
4. Quinnipiac (25)
5. Yale (24)
6. Dartmouth (21)
7. St. Lawrence (21)
8. Clarkson (21)
9. RPI (20)
10. Harvard (17)
11. Brown (15)
12. Princeton (12)
RS PS Imp Prior WRet Ret Avg10 WInc Inc Nieu Pred Brown 17 0 -2 15 0.639 9.585 15.700 0.361 5.668 15.253 11 Clarkson 24 0 -4 20 0.637 12.740 21.400 0.363 7.768 20.508 8 Colgate 29 0 0 29 0.960 27.840 22.000 0.040 0.880 28.720 2 Cornell 26 0 0 26 0.621 16.146 27.300 0.379 10.347 26.493 3 Dartmouth 16 1 4 21 0.979 20.559 22.400 0.021 0.470 21.029 6 Harvard 16 0 1 17 0.922 15.674 21.900 0.078 1.708 17.382 10 Princeton 8 0 -2 6 0.549 3.294 19.500 0.451 8.795 12.089 12 Quinnipiac 28 0 -3 25 0.637 15.925 23.667 0.363 8.591 24.516 4 RPI 21 -1 1 21 0.522 10.962 19.200 0.478 9.178 20.140 9 SLU 18 0 2 20 0.361 7.220 21.600 0.639 13.802 21.022 7 Union 37 0 0 37 0.667 24.679 25.600 0.333 8.525 33.204 1 Yale 24 0 1 25 0.646 16.150 23.000 0.354 8.142 24.292 5
If Ghost leaves, Union would drop to 32 pts.
Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/2014 09:13AM by Trotsky.
Re: 2014 Off Season
Posted by: marty (---.nycap.res.rr.com)
Date: April 14, 2014 06:03PM
Trotsky
Ridiculously early first pass TBRW prediction for 2015, based on the currently announced early departures:
1. Union (33 pts)
2. Colgate (29)
3. Cornell (26)
4. Quinnipiac (25)
5. Yale (24)
6. Dartmouth (21)
7. St. Lawrence (21)
8. Clarkson (21)
9. RPI (20)
10. Harvard (17)
11. Brown (15)
12. Princeton (12)
RS PS Imp Prior WRet Ret Avg10 WInc Inc Nieu Pred Brown 17 0 -2 15 0.639 9.585 15.700 0.361 5.668 15.253 11 Clarkson 24 0 -4 20 0.637 12.740 21.400 0.363 7.768 20.508 8 Colgate 29 0 0 29 0.960 27.840 22.000 0.040 0.880 28.720 2 Cornell 26 0 0 26 0.621 16.146 27.300 0.379 10.347 26.493 3 Dartmouth 16 1 4 21 0.979 20.559 22.400 0.021 0.470 21.029 6 Harvard 16 0 1 17 0.922 15.674 21.900 0.078 1.708 17.382 10 Princeton 8 0 -2 6 0.549 3.294 19.500 0.451 8.795 12.089 12 Quinnipiac 28 0 -3 25 0.637 15.925 23.667 0.363 8.591 24.516 4 RPI 21 -1 1 21 0.522 10.962 19.200 0.478 9.178 20.140 9 SLU 18 0 2 20 0.361 7.220 21.600 0.639 13.802 21.022 7 Union 37 0 0 37 0.667 24.679 25.600 0.333 8.525 33.204 1 Yale 24 0 1 25 0.646 16.150 23.000 0.354 8.142 24.292 5
If Ghost leaves, Union would drop to 32 pts.
Counterpoint?
Re: 2014 Off Season
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: April 14, 2014 06:20PM
One of me is going to look brilliant.marty
Counterpoint?
Re: 2014 Off Season
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: April 14, 2014 08:52PM
Trotsky
One of me is going to look brilliant.marty
Counterpoint?
So, is it the digital you, or the analog you? That is the question.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: 2014 Off Season
Posted by: marty (---.nycap.res.rr.com)
Date: April 14, 2014 08:59PM
Jim Hyla
Trotsky
One of me is going to look brilliant.marty
Counterpoint?
So, is it the digital you, or the analog you? That is the question.
I was thinking we had a right/left dilemma but since I don't understand where those damn numbers came from I'm at a loss...
Re: 2014 Off Season
Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.east.verizon.net)
Date: April 15, 2014 08:10AM
marty
Jim Hyla
Trotsky
One of me is going to look brilliant.marty
Counterpoint?
So, is it the digital you, or the analog you? That is the question.
I was thinking we had a right/left dilemma but since I don't understand where those damn numbers came from I'm at a loss...
Lets see if I remember this from past years. Not that Trotsky hasn't changed it many times in the past. RS is how many points the team had last year. PS is an adjustment due to upsets in the playoffs (and a reminder to me that RPI plays like crap when it counts). Imp is another adjustment for improvement in the second half of the season compared to the first. Both of these are zero sum adjustments. Prior is the sum of the three columns to the left.
WRet is a complicated calculation of how much of the teams strength is returning. It combines separate factors for forwards, d-men, and goalies. Ret = Prior*WRet, a measure of how many of the teams points are returning next season.
Up to this point things basically make sense to me. Now Trotsky wants to add in a factor for incoming players (but not including anything about them per se). Simultaneously this incorporates a measure of improvement in returning players. Avg10 is the average of how many points the team has had for the last 10 years, i.e., a measure of how good the team has been historically. WInc is the fraction of the team's points due to players who left, i.e. WInc=1-WRet. Inc=Avg10*WInc. So Trotsky is assuming that incoming players will play at a rate typical of how the team has done historically. That is as good as one could do without actually knowing anything about incoming players.
Nieu=Ret+Inc, a measure of how many points the team will have next season. Inc isn't zero sum. (I have forgotten if this is due to Vermont leaving and QU taking their place.) The sum of all the Nieu values is not 22*12=264. It's close but not exact. Pred is an ordering based on Nieu.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/2014 08:14AM by ursusminor.
Re: 2014 Off Season
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: April 15, 2014 09:13AM
Touchy subject. Given infinite time and resources I would go back, retro-apply all of my criteria to all of the data sets, figure out which have been most accurate, and stick with those. If you're curious, here is an index page for all the past calculations.ursusminor
Lets see if I remember this from past years. Not that Trotsky hasn't changed it many times in the past.
RS -- Pts in RS (normalize to 22 GP if different, the Elephant Walk Epicycle)
PS -- +1 / -1 for each upset win / loss in an ECAC PS series (no consy)
Imp -- Second half improvement in pts over first half; difference / 2 and rounded down.
Prior: RS + PS + Imp, representing the comparative strength of the team's returning components
WRet -- Weighted returning percentage. It's not complicated, just labor intensive. The percentage of scoring among the top six Fs that is returning weighted by 3 + the percentage of scoring among the top 4 D that is returning weighted by 2 + the percentage of all G minutes that is returning, all divided by 6. This represents the percentage of team performance to be attributed to current components.
Ret -- WRet * Prior. The total number of points contributed by the returning components.
WInc -- Weighted incoming percentage. 1 minus WRet. The idea is that a team's strength is a sum of its current configuration (returning components) and its baseline program strength, with the current component weighted by how much of the team strength is returning. If a team returned everybody their traditional strength wouldn't matter at all. Incoming strength is estimated as the average performance over the prior ten years. Note that this still takes into consideration atypical recent success (or failure) since the prior ten years includes the prior two or three.
Avg10 -- Average pts last 10 seasons. (In Qpc's case, that's an avg of 9 seasons)
Inc -- WInc * Avg 10. The total number of points contributed by the incoming components.
Nieu -- Ret + Inc. Total expected points.
Pred -- Rank order of Nieu.
As Ralph points out, Nieu is not exactly normalized to a 22 game season, but it's really close (this year's error is .0024).
I think this is the best balance between methodological defensibility and practicality of collection that I've had, but I'm open to suggestions.
Edited 7 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/2014 10:15AM by Trotsky.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Scersk '97 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: April 15, 2014 12:02PM
Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
The only squads to exchange "pods" are predicted to be Dartmouth and RPI.
The only squads to exchange "pods" are predicted to be Dartmouth and RPI.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: ursusminor (---.washdc.east.verizon.net)
Date: April 15, 2014 01:48PM
Trotsky
If Ghost leaves, Union would drop to 32 pts.
He signed today.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: April 15, 2014 02:06PM
ursusminor
Trotsky
If Ghost leaves, Union would drop to 32 pts.
He signed today.
Updated calculations:
RS PS Imp Prior WRet Ret Avg10 WInc Inc Nieu Pred Brown 17 0 -2 15 0.639 9.585 15.700 0.361 5.668 15.253 11 Clarkson 24 0 -4 20 0.637 12.740 21.400 0.363 7.768 20.508 8 Colgate 29 0 0 29 0.960 27.840 22.000 0.040 0.880 28.720 2 Cornell 26 0 0 26 0.621 16.146 27.300 0.379 10.347 26.493 3 Dartmouth 16 1 4 21 0.979 20.559 22.400 0.021 0.470 21.029 6 Harvard 16 0 1 17 0.922 15.674 21.900 0.078 1.708 17.382 10 Princeton 8 0 -2 6 0.549 3.294 19.500 0.451 8.795 12.089 12 Quinnipiac 28 0 -3 25 0.637 15.925 23.667 0.363 8.591 24.516 4 RPI 21 -1 1 21 0.522 10.962 19.200 0.478 9.178 20.140 9 SLU 18 0 2 20 0.361 7.220 21.600 0.639 13.802 21.022 7 Union 37 0 0 37 0.554 20.498 25.600 0.446 11.418 31.916 1 Yale 24 0 1 25 0.646 16.150 23.000 0.354 8.142 24.292 5
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: April 15, 2014 02:14PM
And here's a comparison of Nieu 2015 predicted points with 2014 actuals:
Rounding results in 263 rather than 264 (12*22) points. The closest team under .5 is Cornell, so if we award Cornell the make up point to make the percentages all work out, we get:
2014 2015 Diff Brown 17 15 -2 Clarkson 24 21 -3 Colgate 29 29 0 Cornell 26 26 0 Dartmouth 16 21 +5 Harvard 16 17 +1 Princeton 8 12 +4 Quinnipiac 28 25 -3 RPI 21 20 -1 SLU 18 21 +3 Union 37 32 -5 Yale 24 24 0
Rounding results in 263 rather than 264 (12*22) points. The closest team under .5 is Cornell, so if we award Cornell the make up point to make the percentages all work out, we get:
2014 2015 Diff Brown 17 15 -2 Clarkson 24 21 -3 Colgate 29 29 0 Cornell 26 27 +1 Dartmouth 16 21 +5 Harvard 16 17 +1 Princeton 8 12 +4 Quinnipiac 28 25 -3 RPI 21 20 -1 SLU 18 21 +3 Union 37 32 -5 Yale 24 24 0
Edited 8 time(s). Last edit at 04/15/2014 02:19PM by Trotsky.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Dutchman (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: April 18, 2014 11:03AM
The seniors on the Union team, Carr, Bodie, Sullivan, Hatch, Ikkala, and the Ghost (jr), refused to accept defeat as an outcome. Their combined leadership cannot be replaced. There is no way we can reload fast enought. We are going to be tough, but doubtful we end up on top of the ECAC. Someone elses turn.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: April 18, 2014 11:29AM
I'd have hoped so, but the pure numbers say otherwise. The "problem" is that Union's average over ten isn't bad enough to drop them too far. Even though they lose a ton, their typical replacement player projects to the second-best in the conference (25.6, second only to Cornell's 27.3). Union's going to regress, but the mean towards which they are regressing is itself competitive.Dutchman
The seniors on the Union team, Carr, Bodie, Sullivan, Hatch, Ikkala, and the Ghost (jr), refused to accept defeat as an outcome. Their combined leadership cannot be replaced. There is no way we can reload fast enought. We are going to be tough, but doubtful we end up on top of the ECAC. Someone elses turn.
It could all fall apart, of course (Cornell '13 comes painfully to mind), but if the methodology has any merit Union's natural state just isn't bad enough anymore. This is unnerving.
The theoretical "0% Returning" rankings:
1 Cornell 27.3 2 Union 25.6 3 Quinnipiac 23.7 4 Yale 23.0 5 Dartmouth 22.4 6 Colgate 22.0 7 Harvard 21.9 8 SLU 21.6 9 Clarkson 21.4 10 Princeton 19.5 11 RPI 19.2 12 Brown 15.7
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 04/18/2014 11:40AM by Trotsky.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: marty (---.albyny.fios.verizon.net)
Date: April 18, 2014 12:44PM
Dutchman
The seniors on the Union team, Carr, Bodie, Sullivan, Hatch, Ikkala, and the Ghost (jr), refused to accept defeat as an outcome. Their combined leadership cannot be replaced. There is no way we can reload fast enought. We are going to be tough, but doubtful we end up on top of the ECAC. Someone elses turn.
An admirable if not obvious attempt at reverse woofing. May the wrath of those gods have their way.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: April 18, 2014 12:58PM
Sandbagging is not a crime.marty
Dutchman
The seniors on the Union team, Carr, Bodie, Sullivan, Hatch, Ikkala, and the Ghost (jr), refused to accept defeat as an outcome. Their combined leadership cannot be replaced. There is no way we can reload fast enought. We are going to be tough, but doubtful we end up on top of the ECAC. Someone elses turn.
An admirable if not obvious attempt at reverse woofing. May the wrath of those gods have their way.
It is, however, an impiety.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: June 12, 2014 10:03AM
As this is (sort of) the Summer Thread: there's a post on USCHO Fan Forum that Ben Syer interviewed for the vacant Princeton head coach job.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: CAS (---.hsd1.nj.comcast.net)
Date: June 12, 2014 10:55AM
Re the Princeton job, College Hockey News had a story yesterday that Union and Quinnipiac assistants were among those who interviewed on campus for the job. There was no mention of Ben Syer in the story.
Re: 2015 Way Too Early Predictions
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: June 12, 2014 10:58AM
CAS
Re the Princeton job, College Hockey News had a story yesterday that Union and Quinnipiac assistants were among those who interviewed on campus for the job. There was no mention of Ben Syer in the story.
Source.
Sources have indicated that at least seven Division I assistant coaches are also being carefully considered, including Keith Fisher (Penn State, former Princeton assistant), Joe Bonnett (Colorado College), Ben Barr (Providence), Kyle Wallack (Vermont), Joe Dumais (Union), Bill Riga (Quinnipiac) and Ben Syer (Cornell).
To be fair, that says he was "carefully considered." The USCHO post either mischaracterized this or relied on some additional uncited information:
Cornell associate head Ben Syer has applied for the head coach opening at Princeton. He's one of a handful of applicants getting interviewed......per Mike McMahon.
I have asked the USCHO poster for clarification.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/12/2014 11:03AM by Trotsky.
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