RPI and RPI & PWR

Even with a sweep of RPI this weekend, our RPI will decrease. That's because with an .8448 winning percentage, the two wins will only raise it to .8548. Playing RPI twice will, all other things being equal this weekend, lower our opponents' winning percentage by roughly the same .0100. However, since the latter factor gets a 50% weighting vs. only 25% for our own winning percentage, the RPI will drop by about .0025. So on this Forum, when we say RPI sucks, chances are we're not talking about the school.
Regarding PWR, of the closest teams below us, we win both the TUC and Common Opponents comparison and tie or win head-to-head against all but Minnesota, Maine and Ferris State - against Mn and FS we currently split those two comparisons (or in the Maine case we lost head-to-head). So if we drop below any of those in RPI, we'd lose those individual comparisons and could drop in PWR.
If it took us three games to win the RPI series, we'd drop about .0116 in RPI, and lose the comparisons to Minnesota and Maine. All this if course does not take into account other results for the weekend, but Maine's RPI isn't going to move much.
But we probably over analyze this stuff - let's just keep winning. Let's Go Red.



Post Edited (03-12-03 19:40)

If we don't sweep RPI this weekend, we deserve whatever harm this does to our RPI, PWR, KRACH, Vegas odds, whatever.

It's worth noting that the top ranked team, Colorado College, will suffer more from their first round WCHA opponent than we will. CC gets to play lowly 1-27-x alaska Anchorage, who's RPIStr factor is a bunch lower than the Engineers' (.2633, ranked #59 out of 60, compared to .3979 #50 for RPI). CC currently leads us by about .01 in RPI. If both of us sweep, that gap should drop by at least half. If we sweep and they somehow lose a game to UAA (an almost inconceivable event), we would pass them in RPI. When I calculated this using JTW's script I only added the direct games of consequence, so no secondary effects are included.

Minnesota plays Michigan Tech this weekend (#40 RPIstr, .4017). Ferris plays Lake Superior (.3251, #57). Maine, of course, will only be practicing.

[Q]But we probably over analyze this stuff - let's just keep winning. Let's Go Red.[/Q]"Probably", is probably understating it, but it is fun.

What are the odds for this weekend? I bet you could make some real money.

Can't say what Vegas (or your offshore Internet gambling venue of choice) would give you, but KRACH makes CC a 35-1 favorite over UAA, and Cornell about a 17-1 favorite over Rensselaer.

So RPI's probability of winning the series should be:

1/18*1/18 + 1/18*17/18*1/18 + 17/18*1/18*1/18 = 0.89%.


Must....resist....urge....to....comment....on....already....purchased....Albany....plane....tickets....

Less than 1%? Ha, we wish. See Vermont V. Clarkson, circa 2001.

   CORNELL             over Rensselaer          17:1   -3½   5½ 
   HARVARD             over Vermont              4:1   -3½   7½ 
   DARTMOUTH           over Colgate              3:1   -2    6½ 
   YALE                over Brown                3:2   -½    6  
   FERRIS STATE        over Lake Superior       17:1   -4    6  
   MICHIGAN            over Bowling Green        8:1   -3    7  
   COLORADO COLLEGE    over Alaska-Anchorage    35:1   -4½   6½ 
   Wayne State         over Air Force            6:1   -2    6½ 
   Bemidji State       over Findlay              3:1   -½    5  
   MINNESOTA           over Michigan Tech        6:1   -3    8  
   MSU-MANKATO         over Wisconsin            3:1   -1½   6½ 
   NORTH DAKOTA        over Denver               4:3    0    6½ 
   St. Cloud State     over MINNESOTA-DULUTH     3:2    0    6  
   MICHIGAN STATE      over Alaska-Fairbanks     5:3   -2    7½ 
   Notre Dame          over MIAMI               even   +1    5½ 
   NORTHERN MICHIGAN   over Western Michigan    even   -1    6½ 
   OHIO STATE          over Nebraska-Omaha       3:1   -1½   5  
   New Hampshire       over Massachusetts        2:1   -1½   6  
   Boston College      over Boston University   even   -½    6  

For the sportsbook uninitiated, could someone explain the columns of numbers? (E.g., why does it say that BC vs BU is even yet it looks like someone is giving the other a half goal, but then Bemidji is 3:1 favorites over Findlay with the same half goal difference?)

Sorry about that. The odds are from KRACH. The next two columns are spread and over/under, which are calculated from CHODR. That's why they don't necessarily agree.



Post Edited (03-13-03 13:14)

Brown's RPI at .498 after Friday win over Yale.

PWR after Friday's games:

01 CC
02 Cornell
03 BU
04 UNH
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05 Maine
05 Ferris
07 Minny
08 BC
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09 Mich
10 Mankato
11 NoDak
12 OSU
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13 Denver
13 St. Cloud
13 Harvard
13 Providence
13 MSU



Post Edited (03-15-03 00:04)