Quarterfinal rooting interests

There are a few ways to look at rooting interests for this weekend:

1. What give CU the best path to an ECAC title.

2. What gives CU the best (outside) shot at an at large bid. (mess around with that here: [www.collegehockeynews.com])

3. What gives the ECAC the best shot at 3-4 teams in.

Most frustrating for both 2 and 3 is that Dartmouth (19) and Union (16) can't both win or lose this weekend. It seems quite likely that the winner is in a decent at large position going into AC while the loser is pretty much finished.

For Cornell, aside from the obvious, and substantial, work to be done in Hamden, is the best combination of winners RPI, SLU, Union?

For the ECAC, it helps most if a team locked into the tourney loses to open up a spot for a non-t-16 team to earn the bid. That's probably only Q with Yale at 11 and RPI 14. ECAC's best possible outcome (knowing no other results) is probably: COR def QU, YU def SLU, DC def UC (in 3), RPI def. BU; COR def RPI, DC def YU; COR def DC, RPI def YU. That gets you QU at large, Yale, Dartmouth, and RPI all probably in the mix between 10-16, and Cornell as the autobid (which could bump one of the other three).

Chris '03
There are a few ways to look at rooting interests for this weekend:

1. What give CU the best path to an ECAC title.

2. What gives CU the best (outside) shot at an at large bid. (mess around with that here: [www.collegehockeynews.com])

3. What gives the ECAC the best shot at 3-4 teams in.

Most frustrating for both 2 and 3 is that Dartmouth (19) and Union (16) can't both win or lose this weekend. It seems quite likely that the winner is in a decent at large position going into AC while the loser is pretty much finished.

For Cornell, aside from the obvious, and substantial, work to be done in Hamden, is the best combination of winners RPI, SLU, Union?

For the ECAC, it helps most if a team locked into the tourney loses to open up a spot for a non-t-16 team to earn the bid. That's probably only Q with Yale at 11 and RPI 14. ECAC's best possible outcome (knowing no other results) is probably: COR def QU, YU def SLU, DC def UC (in 3), RPI def. BU; COR def RPI, DC def YU; COR def DC, RPI def YU. That gets you QU at large, Yale, Dartmouth, and RPI all probably in the mix between 10-16, and Cornell as the autobid (which could bump one of the other three).

How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

interesting to play with the results.. change just the maine game and win one of the Denver games and we are in.. win both denver game and the princ home game and we are top 6..
sweeping Quin gets us pretty close though but is it possible to only win 1 of 2 in the ECAC final 4 and stay that close probably not unless also beating someone like Yale helps that much and the loss is to the right team.

css228
If we can beat Q ... we can beat anyone left

This is the key. It stands for not only the ECACs but the NCAAs. Defeating the #1 on their home ice twice would put a new face on this season.

css228
How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

Because it might be fun to look at all of the possibilities? It's not like any lack of focus by the folks here is going to hurt the team's chances of winning this weekend.

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

College hockey tourney quarterfinal action gets underway tonight with Maine @ UMass-Lowell.

Here is the online information from the Maine website (implies free audio from GoBlackBears):

Radio/TV: The games will be broadcast on the Black Bear Sports Radio Network 94.5FM and on GoBlackBears.com. Check out GoBlackBears.com for a complete list of radio affiliates. The Hockey East TV schedule has not been announced yet. Video streaming is available for a fee through the Hockey East website.

UM-Lowell uses our friends at Sidearm Sports and here is what they have posted.
Lowell, Mass. Tsongas Center GAME PREVIEW Radio: WUML 91.5 FM, WCAP AM 980

KeithK

css228
How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

Because it might be fun to look at all of the possibilities?

No! I demand that every thread on RedCast Forum deteriorate into a bitch-session about RedCast. Why waste our energy talking about interesting hockey things in the non-streaming world?

KeithK
It's not like any lack of focus by the folks here is going to hurt the team's chances of winning this weekend.

Twenty years of rooting for this team and you still don't know how it works?

RichH

KeithK

css228
How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

Because it might be fun to look at all of the possibilities?

No! I demand that every thread on RedCast Forum deteriorate into a bitch-session about RedCast. Why waste our energy talking about interesting hockey things in the non-streaming world?

Jerk.

Trotsky

RichH

KeithK

css228
How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

Because it might be fun to look at all of the possibilities?

No! I demand that every thread on RedCast Forum deteriorate into a bitch-session about RedCast. Why waste our energy talking about interesting hockey things in the non-streaming world?

Jerk.

Typical.

(Sorry, I'm contractually obligated. Continue.)

RichH

Trotsky

RichH

KeithK

css228
How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

Because it might be fun to look at all of the possibilities?

No! I demand that every thread on RedCast Forum deteriorate into a bitch-session about RedCast. Why waste our energy talking about interesting hockey things in the non-streaming world?

Jerk.

Typical.

(Sorry, I'm contractually obligated. Continue.)

Heretic.

The canonical response is:

Typical

Trotsky

RichH

Trotsky

RichH

KeithK

css228
How about we only focus on the enormous upset that we'll need to beat Q in a multigame series. If we can beat Q (which I don't think we wil), we can beat anyone left, and to me it does't really matter who is left. If we have to root for other teams, then obviously root for lower seeds. But first things first.

Because it might be fun to look at all of the possibilities?

No! I demand that every thread on RedCast Forum deteriorate into a bitch-session about RedCast. Why waste our energy talking about interesting hockey things in the non-streaming world?

Jerk.

Typical.

(Sorry, I'm contractually obligated. Continue.)

Heretic.

The canonical response is:

Typical

Wrong smiley.

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Yeah, well, going into Lake Placid in 1980, the Soviets had a +7 differential on the US team - in one game....

Robb

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Yeah, well, going into Lake Placid in 1980, the Soviets had a +7 differential on the US team - in one game....

Careful, he's going to come back and point out it's 2 of 3.

Jim Hyla

Robb

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Yeah, well, going into Lake Placid in 1980, the Soviets had a +7 differential on the US team - in one game....

Careful, he's going to come back and point out it's 2 of 3.

Well if we're tied after 1 period and Pecknold panics and pulls Hartzell for the series/this series magically gets move to Lynah so we have home ice, maybe I'll start to see some parallels.

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

And, of course, Q did lose to AIC this year....

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

They gotten a lot better the last month.

Q seems to be a little less effective.

The trend lines may cross.

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Trotsky

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

They gotten a lot better the last month.

Q seems to be a little less effective.

The trend lines may cross.

Or they may not. But I'd rather approach this weekend hoping for the best, dreaming about salvaging some of the high hopes for this season. It's more fun that way, certainly in the days leading up to the games.

Ben

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Perhaps, but our performance over the past month gives me the belief that win or lose we can make this a heck of a series. That being said, I don't put too much into Q's results the last few weeks of the regular season since any team could have struggled maintaining intensity under the circumstances.

Trotsky

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

They gotten a lot better the last month.

Q seems to be a little less effective.

The trend lines may cross.

This came up during a game chat around the time QU finally assummed the #1 mantle. What about them is so different this year from last? The 2011-12 edition of the Deerticks didn't post a single 4-point weekend, and only had a two instances where they won two straight after Dec. 1. So of course this year, after losing to Acadia (ex), RMU, Colgate, and AIC, a team like that will go off on a 21-game unbeaten streak. As much as we try to defend the ECAC nationally, I don't see how they've become a fearsome powerhouse. I link to TBRW's most-thourough-of-anywhere-else prediction system here: [www.tbrw.info] which had them lined up to finish 4th. Solid. Not invincible. They don't have an Austin Smith type scoring threat...just a balanced attack and excellent goaltending & defense. "Quinnipiac 2013: Getting it done."

So, if a shot-blocking defense and a solid goaltending is indeed their strength, it plays well to the Schafer playoff strategy, which is basically "hang with them defensively, and see if you get the bounce at the end." I like playing a team like that instead of a "go ahead and try to bottle up our pesky guys" like Yale. I really feel Quinnipiac's perception as a Beast is stronger right now than the reality.

I don't love our chances, obviously, but hey...what the hell?

RichH
So, if a shot-blocking defense and a solid goaltending is indeed their strength, it plays well to the Schafer playoff strategy, which is basically "hang with them defensively, and see if you get the bounce at the end." I like playing a team like that instead of a "go ahead and try to bottle up our pesky guys" like Yale. I really feel Quinnipiac's perception as a Beast is stronger right now than the reality.

I don't love our chances, obviously, but hey...what the hell?

Exactly. We have also had our share of games this year where we completely outplayed an opponent but couldn't buy a goal. Perhaps it will happen to them.

Twice.

Ben

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

I guess I'll sell my tickets for this weekend then since it's just a faulty premise that anything can happen.

I don't see a lot of people (anyone?) running around saying it's likely Cornell will win the series. I hardly think this thread does that.

Rooting interests for the typical RPI student

Ben

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

We should approach the series to have fun. For Christ sake, we're fans not gamblers. I'm not looking to make money this weekend. I want to have fun. Yes there's a good chance that we could lose, but what fun is it constantly saying we underperform, take too many penalties, have a no good PP and PK...

No, it's a lot more fun to look at what we've done in the last 9, maybe 10, games. We've played pretty well, good enough to have a decent chance. I don't think that gives us a good enough chance to bet my retirement on it, but if I could have gone this weekend, it was a good enough chance for me to spend money and time being there. So let all you naysayers stay home and carp, some of us will be there watching, others at home watching, but win or lose a lot of us will have fun. In the end that's what it's all about for me.

Jim Hyla
...win or lose a lot of us will have fun. In the end that's what it's all about for me.

Geez, who let the crazy guy in?

Greenberg '97

Jim Hyla
...win or lose a lot of us will have fun. In the end that's what it's all about for me.

Geez, who let the crazy guy in?

He may be a plant from Mars.

Jim Hyla
So let all you naysayers stay home and carp, some of us will be there watching, others at home watching, but win or lose a lot of us will have fun. In the end that's what it's all about for me.

What is the point of this? I shouted my throat out at every game this season, and I'm sticking around in Ithaca for another day to cheer for WICE. Don't tell me that an attempt to be objective about the men's team's chances is being a naysayer -- if they had performed better during the regular season, I'd have more evidence to suggest that they will play well against Q. MICE certainly have a better chance now than they did three weeks ago, but Q looked far better than us back in February.

Ben

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

Jordan 04

Ben
Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Jordan 04

Ben

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

<10%

Ben

Jordan 04

Ben
Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Ok, that's fair. I was thinking in the same range, circa 20%. I guess it's a matter of semantics, since I don't consider that "very unlikely."

Jim Hyla

No, it's a lot more fun to look at what we've done in the last 9, maybe 10, games. We've played pretty well, good enough to have a decent chance. I don't think that gives us a good enough chance to bet my retirement on it...

I believe the phrase we're all circling is "a puncher's chance."

Everybody shut the fuck up and be nice to each other. Now!

Don't make me come up there.

Jordan 04

Ben

Jordan 04

Ben
Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Ok, that's fair. I was thinking in the same range, circa 20%. I guess it's a matter of semantics, since I don't consider that "very unlikely."

Massey Ratings. I have no idea how good Massey is with college hockey.

(Also: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst)

Quinnipiac's wining percentage for the season is .779. Assume this is their expected record against an average opponent.
Cornell's is .500 very conveniently, because it makes my assumptions and math very simple.

If pQ is .779 and pC is .221, then the probability of a Cornell series win is:

.049 (sweep) + .038 (LWW) + .038 (WLW) = .125

12.5% chance of winning the series.

I'll take Massey. At 26% chance for each game, that's a whopping 16.7% chance of taking the series.

Robb
I'll take Massey. At 26% chance for each game, that's a whopping 16.7% chance of taking the series.

If you only take last weekend, then pC = 1.000 and pQ = .000

Weder

Jordan 04

Ben

Jordan 04

Ben
Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

15-20%? I think that's optimistic, but I feel like I have to give us some chance after the last few weeks.

Ok, that's fair. I was thinking in the same range, circa 20%. I guess it's a matter of semantics, since I don't consider that "very unlikely."

Massey Ratings. I have no idea how good Massey is with college hockey.

(Also: Cornell vs. Mercyhurst)

I chose to run a best of three simulation. Since ties are allowed in the simulation there are some assumptions that don't fit the reality of this weekend. Hit the simulation button 50 times. QPac won 29, Cornell 13 and there were 8 ties.

I don't think the simulation is random. On at least three occasions Cornell won back to back simulations - they won two three game series in a row.

Trotsky
Quinnipiac's wining percentage for the season is .779. Assume this is their expected record against an average opponent.
Cornell's is .500 very conveniently, because it makes my assumptions and math very simple.

If pQ is .779 and pC is .221, then the probability of a Cornell series win is:

.049 (sweep) + .038 (LWW) + .038 (WLW) = .125

12.5% chance of winning the series.

According to the latest KRACH per collegehockeynews, Cornell has an RRWP of 0.5383 while Q is at 0.7758. Using these figures Q has a 59% chance of winning any given game between the two teams, while Cornell has a 40.96% chance. Based on that, we have a 36.5% chance of winning the series.

This doesn't give Q any credit for being the home team. If we bump their chance of winning any given game to 65% from 59% (which I think is on the right order of magnitude for home vs. road) Cornell's series chances drop to 28%.

The above is purely based on the numbers in the ranking system. Take them with as many grains of salt as you like.

Been following Cornell hockey since 1966! Only saw Cornell lose one game at Lynah during my four undergrad years. Was at Lake Placid in 1970. Was at the US-USSR game in Lake Placid 1980. Was at the CU-Providence 6-5OT game in 1979. Also have seen all-too-many melt-downs and missed opportunities. We'll be at Q because Cornell is playing and has a shot! LGR!!!

given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games . if they dont do that then the worst we do is have a shot on sunday. if you use only the current streak of games the last 4 weeks our chances improve a ton.

upprdeck
given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

Trotsky

upprdeck
given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

"Don't tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

css228

Jordan 04

Ben

Chris '03

css228

Jordan 04

css228
If we can beat Q... we can beat anyone left

This is the team that recently tied Brown at home, and lost to Harvard, right?

Why can't we beat them? As is always the case in the league, anybody can beat anybody left, without it being too much of a surprise.

Because we take a lot of idiotic penalties and our penalty kill sucks? Because we only have one dangerous offensive line? Because we lose the neutral zone with regularity? Because our power play is anemic? I don't know, pick a reason. We have to beat them twice at home in three games when they have a +6 goal differential against us. That seems likely...

Who said beating Q was likely? How's the kill been in the last 8? How many stupid penalties over that stretch? (Don't tell me performance against Yale, RPI, and Union doesn't count.)

Jordan's point is that anything can happen in this conference. Hell, Vermont, a year removed from having their season canceled, took out Clarkson at Cheel in a 10 vs 1 series.

Not really, but even if we accept this premise, it would be wiser to prepare for the higher likelihood of Q thrashing us 8-0 over two games than thinking about AC. In the same way, I don't remember people worrying about rust for us and pushing Dartmouth's chances last year. Home teams with byes have that advantage for a reason: they're better. That doesn't make an upset impossible, but it is very unlikely, and we should approach the series that way.

Out of curiosity, what do you consider "very unlikely"? What % of the time does Cornell win this upcoming series?

<10%

Ill take those odds if u want to be book?10-1. Let me know if ur game for it. Ill put 50 on Cornell. I get 500 if we win.

Larry72

Trotsky

upprdeck
given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

"Don't tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

"Oh, no, no, no, Mister Spock, we didn't beat the odds. We didn't have a chance. The Organians raided the game."

Trotsky

Larry72

Trotsky

upprdeck
given all the numbers being thrown around what are the odds Q sweeps us 4 games .

The prior two games are in the books, so the odds of those are 100%.

The odds of a sweep with pQ = .779 are simply that squared, 60.6%

"Don't tell me the odds!" - Han Solo

"Oh, no, no, no, Mister Spock, we didn't beat the odds. We didn't have a chance. The Organians raided the game."

A mixing multiple universes are we now!

"For any event, there is an infinite number of possible outcomes. Our choices determine which outcome will follow. But there is a theory in quantum physics that all possibilities that could happen do happen in alternate quantum realities." - Data

My reality chooses an outcome where Cornell can win!

OK, fine.

"Anything that happens, happens."
"Anything that, in happening, causes something else to happen, causes something else to happen."
"Anything that, in happening, causes itself to happen again, happens again."
"It doesn't necessarily do it in chronological order, though."
-- Douglas Adams

(Kind of seemed like it summed up the whole ECACH to me)

Give My Regards
OK, fine.

"Anything that happens, happens."
"Anything that, in happening, causes something else to happen, causes something else to happen."
"Anything that, in happening, causes itself to happen again, happens again."
"It doesn't necessarily do it in chronological order, though."
-- Douglas Adams

(Kind of seemed like it summed up the whole ECACH to me)

If Zaphod Beeblebrox shows up in a red sweater and skates, then I'll believe. Until then, enjoy the games.

The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia
Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

Jeff Hopkins '82

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia
Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

Oh yeah — "Don't drive on the railroad tracks!"

KeithK

Trotsky
Quinnipiac's wining percentage for the season is .779. Assume this is their expected record against an average opponent.
Cornell's is .500 very conveniently, because it makes my assumptions and math very simple.

If pQ is .779 and pC is .221, then the probability of a Cornell series win is:

.049 (sweep) + .038 (LWW) + .038 (WLW) = .125

12.5% chance of winning the series.

According to the latest KRACH per collegehockeynews, Cornell has an RRWP of 0.5383 while Q is at 0.7758. Using these figures Q has a 59% chance of winning any given game between the two teams, while Cornell has a 40.96% chance. Based on that, we have a 36.5% chance of winning the series.

This doesn't give Q any credit for being the home team. If we bump their chance of winning any given game to 65% from 59% (which I think is on the right order of magnitude for home vs. road) Cornell's series chances drop to 28%.

The above is purely based on the numbers in the ranking system. Take them with as many grains of salt as you like.

Using KRACH, it's the KRACH rating and not the RRWP that should be used in the calculation. Quinnipiac is 376.3 and Cornell is 118.2. So Q's chance of winning each game (per KRACH) is 376.3/(376.3+118.2)=76.1%. Our chances of winning the series using KRACH then compute to 14.4%. That being said, it is not impossible. 6 to 1 underdogs can win. Let's Go Red.

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Has the Clarkson one always been the first one?

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

They didn't lose in 56....

Where's Rich S. when you need(le) him?

The Starman highlights our series on USCHO.

They did get a good season out of a player I really respect in Greg Miller. Miller is a tremendous playmaker and also has added a scoring threat to his resume. He can make his linemates better and we have seen him have that impact on Bruins draft pick Brian Ferlin. Ferlin, who plays on the right of Miller, is developing into a good NHL prospect.

Joakim Ryan and Nick D’Agostino, a pair of defensemen drafted by San Jose and Pittsburgh, respectively, combined for close to 40 points and give Cornell an offensive one-two punch from the back end. Andy Iles, an Ithaca native who grew up watching the Big Red, gets another shot at getting the hometown team into the national tourney after an accomplished career in front of the Lynah faithful.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Does he know something that I don't?

And Nate Owen picks Q in 3. As does Ken Schott.

ursusminor

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Has the Clarkson one always been the first one?

I didn't remember, so I didn't number them.

I think it's actually this:

First Law: Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Second Law: Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Third Law: Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Zeroth Law: Harvard sucks.

marty

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

They didn't lose in 56....

That's because they wussed out of the playoffs.

Trotsky

ursusminor

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Has the Clarkson one always been the first one?

I didn't remember, so I didn't number them.

I think it's actually this:

First Law: Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Second Law: Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Third Law: Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

Zeroth Law: Harvard sucks.

Cogito ergo Harvard sux.

Jim Hyla
...win or lose a lot of us will have fun. In the end that's what it's all about for me.

Hey Trotsky, if you're going to get into canon this is when canon dictates someone say "Jerk" - not when a guy gets all (even pretend) jerky. Jeez.

NB: Don't do it, person who is about to do it. Resist.

ugarte

Jim Hyla
...win or lose a lot of us will have fun. In the end that's what it's all about for me.

Hey Trotsky, if you're going to get into canon this is when canon dictates someone say "Jerk" - not when a guy gets all (even pretend) jerky. Jeez.

I thought it was understood that everyone posting here is a jerk simply by posting here.

jkahn
Using KRACH, it's the KRACH rating and not the RRWP that should be used in the calculation. Quinnipiac is 376.3 and Cornell is 118.2. So Q's chance of winning each game (per KRACH) is 376.3/(376.3+118.2)=76.1%. Our chances of winning the series using KRACH then compute to 14.4%. That being said, it is not impossible. 6 to 1 underdogs can win. Let's Go Red.

Really? OK. I did a quick google search that day to remind me of how to do it and either I misread it in my haste (I try not to spend too long doing these things at work) or the place I was reading had it wrong.

Trotsky

marty

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

They didn't lose in 56....

That's because they wussed out of the playoffs.

... which is why I hope Rich S. is lurking.

Trivia question:

Where did Clarkson's undefeated team stay during the 1956 championship series held in Colorado Springs?

marty

Trotsky

marty

Trotsky
The 3 Laws are:

Never bet against Clarkson in the RS or for them in the playoffs.
Never bet for Cornell in the RS or against them in the playoffs.
Never bet for or against RPI under any circumstances.

They didn't lose in 56....

That's because they wussed out of the playoffs.

... which is why I hope Rich S. is lurking.

Trivia question:

Where did Clarkson's undefeated team stay during the 1956 championship series held in Colorado Springs?

LOL

The odds just got a lot better.

20 combined ECAC final four appearances among this year's teams: Brown (9), Yale (6), Union (3), Quinnipiac (2).

AC attendance is likely to be... sparse.

3 combined ECAC titles. To put that in perspective, BU has 5 ECAC titles and their last one was 2 months after Jimmy Carter's inauguration.

Trotsky
20 combined ECAC final four appearances among this year's teams: Brown (9), Yale (6), Union (3), Quinnipiac (2).

AC attendance is likely to be... sparse.

3 combined ECAC titles. To put that in perspective, BU has 5 ECAC titles and their last one was 2 months after Jimmy Carter's inauguration.

Since RPI last made it to championship weekend, the venue has changed three times (including the impending move back to LP).

kingpin248
Since RPI last made it to championship weekend, the venue has changed three times (including the impending move back to LP).

A good omen for us.