Best time to pull the goalie

I'm reading the new book by Jon Wertheim, Scorecasting, which uses statistics to dispel many sports axioms. One of the main premises of the book is that coaches are afraid to make controversial calls such as going for it on fourth down in football, even if the statistics back them up, because they're not commonly accepted by fans and the media (i.e. Bill Belechick). According to the book, NHL coaches pull their goalies too late (on average with only 1:08 left in the game when down by one goal and with 1:30 left when down by two). If they pulled their goalie one or two minutes earlier it would increase the chances of tying the game from 11.6 percent to 17.6 percent. His premise is that coaches are so averse to the potential loss of an ENG that they wait until the last possible moment, which actually reduces their chances of winning. Even though he studied the NHL, I would assume the statistics are comparable for college hockey. Personally, I've always felt most coaches, including Schafer, wait too long to pull their goalies. A lot of times, a coach waits until one minute is left, but has to wait even longer due to a faceoff being at center ice or in his own team's end. The bottom line is that a loss is a loss, whether it's 3-1 on an ENG, or 2-1.

dbilmes
I'm reading the new book by Jon Wertheim, Scorecasting, which uses statistics to dispel many sports axioms. One of the main premises of the book is that coaches are afraid to make controversial calls such as going for it on fourth down in football, even if the statistics back them up, because they're not commonly accepted by fans and the media (i.e. Bill Belechick). According to the book, NHL coaches pull their goalies too late (on average with only 1:08 left in the game when down by one goal and with 1:30 left when down by two). If they pulled their goalie one or two minutes earlier it would increase the chances of tying the game from 11.6 percent to 17.6 percent. His premise is that coaches are so averse to the potential loss of an ENG that they wait until the last possible moment, which actually reduces their chances of winning. Even though he studied the NHL, I would assume the statistics are comparable for college hockey. Personally, I've always felt most coaches, including Schafer, wait too long to pull their goalies. A lot of times, a coach waits until one minute is left, but has to wait even longer due to a faceoff being at center ice or in his own team's end. The bottom line is that a loss is a loss, whether it's 3-1 on an ENG, or 2-1.

Within one weekend:
Schafer pulls Underhill with >5 minutes left (down 4-1)
Schafer pulls Burt with >2 minutes left (down 3-1)

Jacob 03

dbilmes
I'm reading the new book by Jon Wertheim, Scorecasting, which uses statistics to dispel many sports axioms. One of the main premises of the book is that coaches are afraid to make controversial calls such as going for it on fourth down in football, even if the statistics back them up, because they're not commonly accepted by fans and the media (i.e. Bill Belechick). According to the book, NHL coaches pull their goalies too late (on average with only 1:08 left in the game when down by one goal and with 1:30 left when down by two). If they pulled their goalie one or two minutes earlier it would increase the chances of tying the game from 11.6 percent to 17.6 percent. His premise is that coaches are so averse to the potential loss of an ENG that they wait until the last possible moment, which actually reduces their chances of winning. Even though he studied the NHL, I would assume the statistics are comparable for college hockey. Personally, I've always felt most coaches, including Schafer, wait too long to pull their goalies. A lot of times, a coach waits until one minute is left, but has to wait even longer due to a faceoff being at center ice or in his own team's end. The bottom line is that a loss is a loss, whether it's 3-1 on an ENG, or 2-1.

Within one weekend:
Schafer pulls Underhill with >5 minutes left (down 4-1)
Schafer pulls Burt with >2 minutes left (down 3-1)

Wasn't that the season where we pulled the goalie so often and for so long that our empty net had a better GAA than most of Clarkson's goalies?

jtwcornell91

Jacob 03

dbilmes
I'm reading the new book by Jon Wertheim, Scorecasting, which uses statistics to dispel many sports axioms. One of the main premises of the book is that coaches are afraid to make controversial calls such as going for it on fourth down in football, even if the statistics back them up, because they're not commonly accepted by fans and the media (i.e. Bill Belechick). According to the book, NHL coaches pull their goalies too late (on average with only 1:08 left in the game when down by one goal and with 1:30 left when down by two). If they pulled their goalie one or two minutes earlier it would increase the chances of tying the game from 11.6 percent to 17.6 percent. His premise is that coaches are so averse to the potential loss of an ENG that they wait until the last possible moment, which actually reduces their chances of winning. Even though he studied the NHL, I would assume the statistics are comparable for college hockey. Personally, I've always felt most coaches, including Schafer, wait too long to pull their goalies. A lot of times, a coach waits until one minute is left, but has to wait even longer due to a faceoff being at center ice or in his own team's end. The bottom line is that a loss is a loss, whether it's 3-1 on an ENG, or 2-1.

Within one weekend:
Schafer pulls Underhill with >5 minutes left (down 4-1)
Schafer pulls Burt with >2 minutes left (down 3-1)

Wasn't that the season where we pulled the goalie so often and for so long that our empty net had a better GAA than most of Clarkson's goalies?

"Twenty-two to nine. Twenty-two to nine."

Chris '03

jtwcornell91

Jacob 03

dbilmes
I'm reading the new book by Jon Wertheim, Scorecasting, which uses statistics to dispel many sports axioms. One of the main premises of the book is that coaches are afraid to make controversial calls such as going for it on fourth down in football, even if the statistics back them up, because they're not commonly accepted by fans and the media (i.e. Bill Belechick). According to the book, NHL coaches pull their goalies too late (on average with only 1:08 left in the game when down by one goal and with 1:30 left when down by two). If they pulled their goalie one or two minutes earlier it would increase the chances of tying the game from 11.6 percent to 17.6 percent. His premise is that coaches are so averse to the potential loss of an ENG that they wait until the last possible moment, which actually reduces their chances of winning. Even though he studied the NHL, I would assume the statistics are comparable for college hockey. Personally, I've always felt most coaches, including Schafer, wait too long to pull their goalies. A lot of times, a coach waits until one minute is left, but has to wait even longer due to a faceoff being at center ice or in his own team's end. The bottom line is that a loss is a loss, whether it's 3-1 on an ENG, or 2-1.

Within one weekend:
Schafer pulls Underhill with >5 minutes left (down 4-1)
Schafer pulls Burt with >2 minutes left (down 3-1)

Wasn't that the season where we pulled the goalie so often and for so long that our empty net had a better GAA than most of Clarkson's goalies?

"Twenty-two to nine. Twenty-two to nine."

That was fun.

Chris '03

jtwcornell91

Jacob 03

dbilmes
I'm reading the new book by Jon Wertheim, Scorecasting, which uses statistics to dispel many sports axioms. One of the main premises of the book is that coaches are afraid to make controversial calls such as going for it on fourth down in football, even if the statistics back them up, because they're not commonly accepted by fans and the media (i.e. Bill Belechick). According to the book, NHL coaches pull their goalies too late (on average with only 1:08 left in the game when down by one goal and with 1:30 left when down by two). If they pulled their goalie one or two minutes earlier it would increase the chances of tying the game from 11.6 percent to 17.6 percent. His premise is that coaches are so averse to the potential loss of an ENG that they wait until the last possible moment, which actually reduces their chances of winning. Even though he studied the NHL, I would assume the statistics are comparable for college hockey. Personally, I've always felt most coaches, including Schafer, wait too long to pull their goalies. A lot of times, a coach waits until one minute is left, but has to wait even longer due to a faceoff being at center ice or in his own team's end. The bottom line is that a loss is a loss, whether it's 3-1 on an ENG, or 2-1.

Within one weekend:
Schafer pulls Underhill with >5 minutes left (down 4-1)
Schafer pulls Burt with >2 minutes left (down 3-1)

Wasn't that the season where we pulled the goalie so often and for so long that our empty net had a better GAA than most of Clarkson's goalies?

"Twenty-two to nine. Twenty-two to nine."

Is that 8:38 AM or PM?