Maine Loses? Cornell #2 in PWR?

As shown on USCHO.

It appears that after tonight's results - pending the final outcomes of a few slightly less relevant games, obviously - we're #2 in RPI, KRACH, and PWR.

Wow.

Beeeej

Wow.

I went to the UMass-Maine game. Maine was bitchslapped. Not as close as the score indicated. A side benefit is that Jim Howard gave up four goals, so Lenny's lead in all relevant stats grows....

The excitement over being #2 is all probably for naught, though, unless we can get Providence the heck out of the tournament. A CU-PC first-rounder in Providence looms (lots of assumptions made about the ECACs, natch).


ZD

ZooeyDog wrote:

The excitement over being #2 is all probably for naught, though, unless we can get Providence the heck out of the tournament. A CU-PC first-rounder in Providence looms (lots of assumptions made about the ECACs, natch).

Damn BU, anyway.

Shoot. And now with Minnesota's win we're back to being tied with Maine in PWR (losing the comparison with the Gophers).

Hm. A little fluid, one supposes.

Let's just win the friggin' ECAC.

ZD

Yes, but we still win the individual comparison with ME and have the higher RPI, so we're ahead of ME any way you slice it. Nevertheless, we probably still end up as #1 in Providence so that ME/PC don't meet in the first round.

#1 in Providence would still beat #1 in Ann Arbor.

But Alabama-Huntsville at a neutral site would be a much better first-round draw than Providence at home. Of course then we'd have to hear fans of some fourth-place WCHA team talk smack about what an easy bracket they were in.

BTW, if you take away our win over RPI last night, we'd still be #2 in the RPI.

Heck, yeah! It just would have been nice to face a MAAC/CHA team at a neutral site rather than PC at home....

With Providence in there is no neutral site. Rather Cornell play on the road in an eastern regional than on the road at Yost or Mariucci. That they might put off the away game to round 2 out there does not matter, since this year's mission is to get all the way through to the F4.

come on, it's not like half of the rink wouldn't be cornell fans anyway. PC is no big deal....

As sweet as it's been to have all these high-flying western teams lose, is anyone else starting to get uncomfortable seeing three Hockey East teams bunch around us in PWR? (Let alone Providence's resurgence.) It's starting to look like the perfect excuse to send us west....

My opinion is it's a sad state of affairs when a team like Cornell has a truly terrific year, and we have to preoccupy ourselves with the idea of Providence looming at home ice (or Michigan, or Minnesota...). Am I the first one to say this: the rule to keep low seeds in their home building no matter what is $&%ing ridiculous. I know, I know, guaranteeing revenues for host buildings, whatever. And I know, God, I sound naive. But jeez, if you wanted to ensure packed buildings, play the regionals at the top-seeded schools' home sites, and let the NCAA control the revenues.

I know. Never happen. I'm a wuss. But the fact is, we probably *should* fear Minnesota, Michigan and even Providence on the road, in a one-game situation. At least a little.

GO BU!!!


ZD

> if you wanted to ensure packed buildings, play the regionals at the top-seeded schools' home sites

You can't do that, because then Cornell with 3800 would host a regional. Instead they want a venue with 8000 to host. Except then they can't fill the 8000. So they have to warp the rules to get a local team to play there.

Just weight PWR by home attendence, take the top 16 teams by revenue size, and be done with it.

[Q]But the fact is, we probably *should* fear Minnesota, Michigan and even Providence on the road, in a one-game situation. At least a little.[/Q]
Oh come on, it's the NCAA tournament, we should fear anybody in a one game situation. You may want to argue except the MAAC and the CHA champs, and I'd agree it's a lesser degree, but the fact is when you're playing at the top 16 (or at least 14) teams in the country, you're not really gonna get a day off. Everyone comes to play, and we better too. We can not like facing a firey Providence at Providence, but the tournament is supposed to be a real test and it will be.

Oh Fred, of course! But what is being said is that home ice can make a good team great and a great team unbeatable. Look at us!

Adam,

Fair enough, I'm not saying it doesn't suck. But I am saying that we have to go in there and do it. This team, simply from being in the ECAC, has had to work extra hard for every bit of recognition it got, and if the tourney ends up being the same way, then they better be prepared to do it (and I'm sure they will be). Besides, I don't think there's such a thing as unbeatable... just ask Union after last night.

If they could keep us tied in Lynah 'til 5 minutes left, then we can go in and take care of Providence in Providence. I guess what I'm saying is we knew it wouldn't be easy, and now it's a level harder, so what? I sucks, but it's the way the cards fall, and it's not worth bitching about the system over .

Btw, should Providence not make it, I think we'd end up in Worcester, since it's closer to us, and probably doesn't make a difference to Maine.

Now that my fear about going to Ann Arbor has been resolved, this is the seedings I came up with by the current PWR:

West (Minn):
1) CC (closest to home)
2) Minn (host)
3) OSU (to avoid WCHA matchup, requires seed-swapping)
4) MAAC champ (to pair with #1)

Midwest (Ann Arbor):
1) BC (#4 so gets sent west)
2) UNH (avoid CCHA matchup, can't move hosts BU, Minn)
3) Mich (host)
4) MSU-Mankato (flipping down to 4, but faces weakest #1)

Northeast (Wor)
1) Cornell
2) BU (7)
3) SCSU (9)
4) DU

East (Prov)
1) Maine
2) Ferris (6)
3) UND (11)
4) CHA champ (to pair w/ #2)

Finally, don't expect us to pass Maine without Maine losing significantly. Why? Because we'd need to pass them in RPI, and the team we play on Friday has the worth "RPI Strength" in all of D-I hockey. Sigh.

I would be less annoyed at keeping the host school at home if it weren't the same cities every year (or two) - Worcester, Providence, Albany, Minneapolis, Ann Arbor, etc. I don't pay attention to these things but when they have a regional in Providence is PC always the host? What about Worcester? Is BU always the host or does it rotate amongst other nearby Hockey East schools? I know the distances in the West are greater but if they insist on the same arenas in the East then there shouldn't be an issue about host schools being at home. If PC fans can't drive to Worcester then they don't deserve to be called fans.

I could be wrong, but I think the host schools bid for the right to host - they find a suitable rink, rent it out, handle all kinds of details (tickets? concessions? etc), and "sell" those services to the NCAA. Whichever schools come up with the best packages (value-wise) are selected as hosts. Therefore, there's nothing to stop Cornell from bidding on hosting a regional. Obviously, it's a lot easier to put together a competitive package if your hometown happens to have the right-sized arena for such purposes, but Cornell could bid to host a regional in Albany, Worcester, Providence, Buffalo, etc, if Cornell's athletic department wanted to perform the duties so required to do so.

We do not know what those duties are, but presumably there's a contract between the NC$$ and the host school/venue, and it's all in there.

It can't be *that* big a financial hit to the school, or public institutions like Minnesota and Michigan couldn't get away with it during years of state budget deficits (he said naively). Other than keeping the team east, I don't know what Cornell would really gain from hosting a regional. This would be an interesting USCHO article -- how does hosting work, what does it mean, and who gets the cake?

Greg wrote:

It can't be *that* big a financial hit to the school, or public institutions like Minnesota and Michigan couldn't get away with it during years of state budget deficits (he said naively).

ROTFLMAO.

I don't think the athletics budget at Minnesota or Michigan has been audited by the state in decades.

I would settle for the 2007 Frozen Four at MSG. It would be no more out of place than the Republican convention in 2004. That's going to be a "riot".

According to USCHO, the 2005 Northeast regional has not been awarded although who knows when that page was last updated.

I know that schools do bid to host and as far back as I can recall, which is only about 8 years, BU has always been the host in Worcester. I did question earlier on another thread why BC with a bigger overall athletics reputation has never bid or at least never won? Apparently the NCAA has found good bidders in North Dakota and Colorado although not sure who is host for the respective events taking place in those states in future years. Cornell would probably have to bid on Albany.

1. I would probably rather see Cornell use it's money for other purposes than buying a hockey regional like for the hockey program itself
2. The other conferences look down on the ECAC. I wouldn't want the taunts of 'they only won because they were the hosts' which would surely be hurled at us if we hosted and won a regional.

1. Cornell should bid on it if you think it will be profitable, and then put the money into the program (or, perish the thought, toward academic scholarships). Heck, even if it were break-even or a small loss, it seems worthwhile when the team is on top.

2. The other conferences can taunt all they want. The taunts will sound pretty hollow if they are screaming at their televisions watching Cornell in the next round. I don't think PC will care if they beat us in their home, and I wouldn't care either. I don't know how much it matters, though. We can't really play at home because Ithaca doesn't have a large enough arena. Albany just isn't Ithaca. (Anyone know if the arena in Syracuse where the minor league hockey team plays (played?) is large enough to be an attractive host site?)

big red apple wrote:

(Anyone know if the arena in Syracuse where the minor league hockey team plays (played?) is large enough to be an attractive host site?)

The Syracuse War Memorial is a friggin' armpit not worthy of a NCAA regional. (However, the tiny 1954 Syracuse Nationals NBA championship banner in the NW corner of the ceiling is neat.)

Denver and Providence are tied in PWR, with USCHO breaking the tie by RPI. Do we know for sure if the NCAA selection committee will break a tie the same way or is this a case where it is vague enough that they would use "judgement" and end up picking Provicence because they are hosting a regional?

I thought about Syracuse but imagine if we didn't make the tournament. There would be four pretty grumpy teams wondering what the hell they are doing there, skating in front of thousands of empty seats. Of course, I wondered the same thing about North Dakota. I gather it works though.

About a month ago there was an article about the Women's regional in 2004 (?) being moved from New Haven to Providence because the city of New Haven decided to close the Coliseum. The decision to close the Coliseum was made last summer but there were/are protests against its demolition so any decision to move the regional was not made immediately. I think this demonstrates that the work load isn't so heavy in arranging a regional since it was done so quickly (especially when you are a repeat customer). But it also shows that the NCAA prefers the I-95 corridor between New Haven and Manchester, NH (site of a men's regional next year - the Verizon Wireless Arena - ugh) with an occasional jaunt to Albany.

Also, an article about New Haven said they made more money on concerts than they did on sporting events (minor league hockey) and they had been losing concerts to the Meadows, south of Hartford (Connecticut residents correct me on this one) since the Meadows opened in the 90s.

Careful, John, in dissing the War Memorial. Cornell won its first NCAA championship there.

Worcester wasn't such a great "home" ice for BU last year, when they lost to Maine despite having a bye. While it's entirely possible Cornell could lose to Providence--or any of the other top 14 PWR teams--in the first round, I'm not sure the Dunk gives Providence a "home" advantage like Mariucci or (especially) Yost, where Minnesota and Michigan play their home games and where season ticket holders will snap up a high percentage of tickets not sold at the other schools.

[Q]Denver and Providence are tied in PWR, with USCHO breaking the tie by RPI. Do we know for sure if the NCAA selection committee will break a tie the same way or is this a case where it is vague enough that they would use "judgement" and end up picking Provicence because they are hosting a regional?[/Q]
Hosting/close teams come into play when decided where to put/seed someone, but if it came into selecting who made the tournament at all, that'd be a downright scandal, IMNSHO. The most likely thing for the committee to use to break a tie is the head-to-head pairwise comparison, but that's just an educated guess. After that (if it's tied w/o the RPI tiebreaker), I'd say head-to-head record. After that, it's really up to them to decide what category best decides which team is better. They might consider which teams you win comparisons against, or consider record vs. TUC, or RPI - whatever they think is the best reflection, but it has to be subjective, and I'm 99% sure it has to reflect one of the excepted category. I suppose if they were perfectly tied in all those, they might look at "big wins" or something, but it should all be record-based, and not subjective. Btw, USCHO pretty much just uses RPI to break ties because it's easy.

[Q]I thought about Syracuse but imagine if we didn't make the tournament. There would be four pretty grumpy teams wondering what the hell they are doing there, skating in front of thousands of empty seats. Of course, I wondered the same thing about North Dakota. I gather it works though.[/Q]
Oh wah , like Syracuse is that far. I know it's not in the heart of eastern hockey country, but it's not more than a 6 hour drive from Boston. They can fly if they want. If Colorado can host a regional next year, BU can deal with Syracuse.

Neil Shapiro '83 wrote:

Denver and Providence are tied in PWR, with USCHO breaking the tie by RPI. Do we know for sure if the NCAA selection committee will break a tie the same way or is this a case where it is vague enough that they would use "judgement" and end up picking Provicence because they are hosting a regional?

Assuming nothing has changed, what the NCAA actually looks at is comparisons among bubble teams, so the key fact is that DU wins the comparison with Providence (see [uscho.com] ), not that they have the higher RPI. We've seen no indication that the committee cares who's hosting when they select the field.

DeltaOne81 '03 wrote:

The most likely thing for the committee to use to break a tie is the head-to-head pairwise comparison, but that's just an educated guess. After that (if it's tied w/o the RPI tiebreaker), I'd say head-to-head record.

That would only be necessary in the phenomenally unlikely scenario of the two teams having exactly the same RPI. Because (repeat after me) THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A TIED PAIRWISE COMPARISON, a decision between two teams can always be made on the basis of the direct pairwise comparison.

Now, if it's a decision among three teams, each of which wins one PWC and loses one, they break that tie with RPI. That's how they decided to send Cornell West instead of Vermont and UHN in 1997.

John:

2 team league, teams A and B.
They split two games.
Is that a tied pairwise comparison?

Greg wrote:

2 team league, teams A and B.
They split two games.
Is that a tied pairwise comparison?

In that situation, RPI itself is not even defined (because neither team has an "opponents' winning percentage" once head-to-head games are left out). Suffice it to say that a PWC can only be tied if two teams have identical RPIs, which is a situation which will, practically speaking, never happen, and which was not the situation Fred was describing.

Wow. I can see into the future.

[uscho.com]

Bringing the worst ice in the NHL to the NCAA.

But I'm not complaining - I would love to have the tournament in my backyard.

So who's figured out what our RPI's gonna be if and when we've beaten Princeton? How much does it drop us, relative to, say, a BU win at Orono tonight?



ZD

You can't figure out what the RPI will be without also factoring in all the other results, though you can figure out what adding a W or L will do, given a hypothetical set of other results. IIRC, the penalty for beating RPI was around .004

But ooo, ooo (I hope I spelled Horshack correctly), here is a question for the mathematicati.

DEFINE every possible permutation of outcomes in tonight's game other than the Cornell game as p1, p2, p3, .... pn.

DEFINE Cornell's RPI after a win tonight for the xth permutation of other games as wx, their RPI after a loss tonight for the xth permutation as lx, for a tie as tx.

THEN, is (wx - lx) the same for all x?

In longer words, is the difference between our RPI after a win tonight as opposed to a loss the same no matter what else happens around the NCAA?