RPI, Union at Lynah - possible outcome

I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union. Is it likely?

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union. Is it likely?

Which Cornell team shows up? The team that played the first 2 periods against St. Cloud, or the one that played the third period?

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union.

Your mathematical prowess is stunning.

Brandon Thomas' article on this weekend in the Ithaca Journal

I see a 5 goal, breakout weekend for Dan Nicholls. I'm just sayin'. And the four points, of course. I've got a feeling.

Beeeej

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union.

Your mathematical prowess is stunning.

Man, you are such a dick sometimes...

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union. Is it likely?

No, it's not likely.

KRACH

11. RPI (12-5-3)
13. Union (13-6-3)
39. Cornell (6-8-1)

I'm hoping for 2 points. Anything above 1 is, IMHO, cake.

Trotsky

billhoward
KRACH

11. RPI (12-5-3)
13. Union (13-6-3)
39. Cornell (6-8-1)

I'm hoping for 2 points. Anything above 1 is, IMHO, cake.

According to KRACH, neglecting the possibility of a tie we'd have a 22.6% chance of beating RPI and a 23.7% chance of beating Union, giving us a 5.37% chance of a sweep. Of course, ties can happen, so the corresponding odds of four points would be even worse than that.

 

___________________________
JTW

Enjoy the latest hockey geek tools at [www.elynah.com]

Trotsky

Beeeej

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union.

Your mathematical prowess is stunning.

Man, you are such a dick sometimes...

The boys had better start winning or we'll all be at each others throats.

profudge
Brandon Thomas' article on this weekend in the Ithaca Journal

This is great news:

Whitney was cleared by a specialist in Boston to continue playing and undergo surgery after the season.

We thought he was lost for the season.

Troy-Record article.

Crowd in full voice on the TV feed, 40 minutes before game time.

Given the way both goalies have been playing, I'm optimistic. Minimum 2 points.

Men's hockey pre-game: No. 10 RPI at Cornell

Posted 1/14/2011 6:30 PM EST

Bonsoir from Lynah Rink, where the Cornell men's hockey team is getting set for its first home game in six weeks. Tenth-ranked RPI is in town, fresh off a split with the visiting North Country teams last weekend. The Big Red had an even more noteworthy weekend itself, extending its streak of blown third-period leads to five straight games while rebounding for a sweep at then-No. 19 Princeton and Quinnipiac.

The way I see it, we'll learn a lot about the Big Red this weekend. A true contender would need to take care of this weekend to the tune of at least two points. Even more importantly, the team has to just plain stop tossing away late leads. Good teams don't do that, and for a team built like Cornell, it can't do that.

The big news here is that our start time -- which was originally pushed back to 7:07 to accommodate TV -- has been pushed back further to at least 7:15, because of a late injury to the Big Red's Dan Nicholls. Details are sketchy at this point, but I sensed some frenetic activity in the rink to tend to the matter. Sounds pretty scary, actually. I'll pass along details as I know them ... but they're hard to come by at the moment. Vince Mihalek is the last-minute insertion.

As far as the lineups go, Cornell is dressing the same crew it had last weekend -- save for the Nicholls situation. That means that John Esposito and Sean Whitney have not yet been cleared to play. For RPI, the lines have been shuffled a little bit since it was last in action with Marty O'Grady now off the top line and out of the lineup.

Lineups are as follows ...

No. 10 RPI (12-5-3, 4-4 ECAC Hockey)
Forwards
22 Lee - 21 Polacek - 15 Helfrich
19 Cullen - 13 Malchuk - 18 Angers-Goulet
24 Rabbani - 4 Brutlag - 14 Burgdoerfer
28 Tinordi - 12 Rogic - 17 Smith

Defensemen
8 Bergin - 7 Foss
29 Bailen - 11 Dolan
2 Koudys - 5 Kennedy

Goalies
30 York ... 32 Merriam

CORNELL (6-8-1, 4-4)
Forwards
10 Kennedy - 12 Collins - 20 Mowrey
15 Craig - 17 Kary - 11 Mihalek
9 Roeszler - 16 Miller - 22 J. Devin
18 de Swardt - 21 Axell - 8 Jillson

Defensemen
7 Birch - 2 M. Devin
6 D'Agostino - 27 Brisson
24 Gotovets - 4 Ross

Goalies
35 Garman ... 33 Iles ... 31 Kanji

In-game updates will be available sporadically on my Twitter account ... www.twitter.com/BThomasIJ.

Trotsky

Beeeej

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union.

Your mathematical prowess is stunning.

Man, you are such a dick sometimes...

Well, the way I wrote it, I left myself open.

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union. Is it likely?

More likely than it was a couple of hours ago.

Shall we have to start talking about an 8 point weekends? (Please forgive me woofing gods I merely raise the possibility as a mathematical construct.)

I hope that Nicholls is alright, saw your Tweet

Cornell wins over top 10 (by USCHO Poll) teams at Lynah Rink since Schafer became coach:

11/15/1996 #1 Vermont
02/06/1999 #8 Princeton
11/19/1999 #6 St. Lawrence
02/19/2000 #10 RPI
10/28/2005 #10 Michigan State
01/20/2006 #10 St. Lawrence
02/02/2007 #8 Clarkson
01/22/2010 #5 North Dakota
01/14/2011 #10 RPI

RPI is #10?? When did that happen?

Jordan 04
RPI is #10?? When did that happen?

that would be this week as they dropped from #8.

They have been winning games in which they were outplayed quite often this year -of course I am basing this on the home games I have seen. The most memorable was the win over BU. Jack Parker's head exploded at the end of the third. He got a bench minor followed by a game misconduct. Those two penalties and his reaction were worth the price of the season tickets.

That said I was worried that the game could have ended 5-1 on the other side. It was great to see our D keep their team in check. Great effort - thanks to the team for a good time.

Brandon Thomas's discussion about Dan Nicholls being out of last night's game due to two seizures before the game. That's why the game started so late.

His article about the game.

billhoward
I'm thinking a four-point weekend is possible against RPI and Union. Is it likely?

Not looking good.

Still a good job overall to get 2 points out of that weekend.

We'll see whether they can win the games they ought to next weekend.

Union is probably the #2/3 team in the conference. 4 points next weekend and 2 more in Cambridge?

Here's Brandon's article and blog on the game.

Trotsky
We'll see whether they can win the games they ought to next weekend.

Agreed. Indeed, if one looks at the various schedules and takes a quick gander at JTW's ECAC-restricted Bradley-Terry, one notices that, if we can win the games we should, we are right in the thick of it for a top 4 finish—surprise, surprise.

For examples, Clarkson has not played Yale yet, and Princeton has played neither Union nor RPI yet. RPI probably has the easiest road home, but we've seen this weekend that they are quite vulnerable.

So, if we can win the games we should, and the leaders win the games they should, we might squeak a good finish out. (Actually, as long as we can avoid 7th or 8th, there will be a good enough chance to make it to AC.)

In a season when the rest of our ECAC peers are doing so well in PWR, have we, fans and hockey team alike, accepted that we are destined for a mediocre performance for the rest of year? What happened to the enthusiasm and attentiveness to detail at Princeton and against RPI? I just read Brandon's article and blog and feel like there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the team's talent this year nor their ability to perform. Schafer's comment after the game further confirmed that fact. Our downfall seems to lie within our execution, and a lot of that has to do with enthusiasm and attitude on game night.

"Before you can win, you have to believe you are worthy." - Mike Ditka

Well said. Cornell is better than its record and that wouldn't be hard. Young teams and well-coached teams are often improved down the stretch. If nothing else, that makes more sense than "two goals, the most dangerous lead in hockey."

Nothing like replying to yourself.

Anyway, the ECAC leader primed for a fall? Princeton. Next week they play Union and RPI for the first time this season. Honestly, I expect us to be ahead of or tied with Princeton by the end of next weekend. A first-round bye is looking ever more reasonable.

Looking at Greg's chart of ECAC points by place, one can note that in top-6 vs. bottom-6 seasons, teams generally need 28 or so points to get fourth. That would require us to go 6-2 over the next eight, which I think is doable if not likely. We shall see.

Scersk '97
Nothing like replying to yourself.

Anyway, the ECAC leader primed for a fall? Princeton. Next week they play Union and RPI for the first time this season. Honestly, I expect us to be ahead of or tied with Princeton by the end of next weekend. A first-round bye is looking ever more reasonable.

Looking at Greg's chart of ECAC points by place, one can note that in top-6 vs. bottom-6 seasons, teams generally need 28 or so points to get fourth. That would require us to go 6-2 over the next eight, which I think is doable if not likely. We shall see.

6-2 might be asking a lot, considering that we have to play RPI, Yale and Union on the road. But it never hurts to aim high!

scoop85
6-2 might be asking a lot, considering that we have to play RPI, Yale and Union on the road. But it never hurts to aim high!

Our newly found (remembered?) ability to tie on the road might come in handy. No shame in a hard-fought road tie.

I'd put our most likely path to "6-2" as two ties, a freak win, and a freak loss. So, 5-1-2. I'll prognosticate ties at RPI and Yale, a freak win at Union, a crucial win over Dartmouth at home, and a freak loss to Brown.

Cornell really wants to get to third not just fourth in the ECACs or hope one of the 5-12 teams advances to the quarterfinals. It would be best to avoid meeting #1 Yale as long as possible.

I think if the standings stay as they are right now, we are in a pretty good position for the post season.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we are 6th, we will play #11 Harvard first round.

Then if we win, we will play #3 Princeton.

These two teams I'm confident that we can beat if we just show up with the desire to play. We don't need to excel, but just enough effort to beat them by a goal or two.

We may be saying the same things differently and you're presuming the first-round play-in goes according to rating. IIRC, pairings are fluid. After both the first and second round, the highest survivor plays the lowest survivor. If Yale remains #1, after the first round bye Yale does not play the winner of the 8/9 play-in game but whoever's left that's worst. With a fixed seeding, last year #1 Yale would have played #8 Harvard (first round winner over #9 Princeton) but instead the Bulldogs got to feast on #11 Brown, upset winner over #6 RPI. And Yale promptly lost 2 games to 1. See this 2010 playoff grid: [www.insidecollegehockey.com]

Last year two of the first-round lower seeds won and in the quarterfinals two lower seeds won.

billhoward
We may be saying the same things differently and you're presuming the first-round play-in goes according to rating. IIRC, pairings are fluid. After both the first and second round, the highest survivor plays the lowest survivor. If Yale remains #1, after the first round bye Yale does not play the winner of the 8/9 play-in game but whoever's left that's worst. With a fixed seeding, last year #1 Yale would have played #8 Harvard (first round winner over #9 Princeton) but instead the Bulldogs got to feast on #11 Brown, upset winner over #6 RPI. And Yale promptly lost 2 games to 1. See this 2010 playoff grid: [www.insidecollegehockey.com]

Last year two of the first-round lower seeds won and in the quarterfinals two lower seeds won.

Yeah, I don't think one should assume rankings narrowly predict outcomes. The latter often depends on match-ups. Given the record over the past few years, we can safely say that Cornell does not match up well against Yale.

Swampy

billhoward
We may be saying the same things differently and you're presuming the first-round play-in goes according to rating. IIRC, pairings are fluid. After both the first and second round, the highest survivor plays the lowest survivor. If Yale remains #1, after the first round bye Yale does not play the winner of the 8/9 play-in game but whoever's left that's worst. With a fixed seeding, last year #1 Yale would have played #8 Harvard (first round winner over #9 Princeton) but instead the Bulldogs got to feast on #11 Brown, upset winner over #6 RPI. And Yale promptly lost 2 games to 1. See this 2010 playoff grid: [www.insidecollegehockey.com]

Last year two of the first-round lower seeds won and in the quarterfinals two lower seeds won.

Yeah, I don't think one should assume rankings narrowly predict outcomes. The latter often depends on match-ups. Given the record over the past few years, we can safely say that Cornell does not match up well against Yale.

Except that we were fine against them at Lynah in December. I am considering the no goal under Rondeau as he slid backward over the goal line. On balance they were the better team against us, but this Saturday it looked like Yale was playing against the Pee-wees from RIP with RIP winning that game. One note on the game Saturday. RIP scored twice on a pivotal power play. They were leading 2-1 when a delayed penalty was called. They scored before the whistle and then again when on the 5x4 pp. The resulting 4-1 spread made the rest of the game much less exciting.