PWR Pedagogery
Posted by Robb
PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.99.202.62.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: January 31, 2010 03:58AM
This weekend definitely did not hurt our PWR. But what does the future hold? Here are some random things I notice as perusing the comparisons.
Obviously, we just want to win out, barring some bizarre circumstance. Example: we sweep RPI in the regular season and then face them in the conference title game, where an RPI win would put them into the top 25 of RPI and make them a TUC. It could be better for us to lose that game (PWR speaking, only, of course!) and get to count the 2-1 record against them in our TUC record, which will almost certainly be less than .667. The same thinking does not apply to facing Yale or Quinnipiac because even if we beat them in the RS, a loss in the title game would make us 1-2 against them, so we don't want that record to count.
Speaking of TUCs, we're currently 3-3-2, with TUC games against Yale and Union remaining, which would put us at exactly 10. Chances are that at least one game in Albany (assuming we make it) will be a TUC. However, SLU (and our 1-0-1 record against them) is currently at #24 in RPI, so we definitely want them to keep winning to remain a TUC. Our other TUC opponents (CC, UNH, NoDak) are all pretty solid TUCs, so those won’t change. We’re unlikely to get any help with teams becoming TUCs to our benefit. BU is just below the line at #28, but our 0-0-1 record against them won’t help. RPI has an outside shot at #31, but not too likely.
The RPI is the most critical factor, of course. If we were to win out (which we won't - keep your shirt on), our record would improve from 12-5-3 to 25-5-3 (.675 to .803). If our opponents and their opponents continue to win a the same rates, our RPI would then improve from .5422 all the way up to .5862, which would be good for 2nd best RPI. This won't happen, but it's just nice to know that not all is lost, even for those comparisons that hinge on RPI (lots of them, currently).
Breaking down the comparisons:
1. Miami: this comparison is toast. We’re tied on common opponents (COp) with none remaining, so that doesn’t count. We’d have to come close to winning out AND they’d have to tank to have a shot at catching their RPI, and we won’t catch their TUC record of 0.750.
2. Denver – they have 2 remaining vs UND, but even if they lose both, they’ll still have COp and TUC, so this one is toast, too.
3. Wisconsin – can’t catch them in COp (only Yale remaining for us), not likely in RPI – toast.
4. SCSU – We could actually catch them in Cop if they lose 2 to NoDak and we beat Brown, QU, and Union, especially if we get some bonus wins against those three in the ECAC tournament and SCSU loses to CC or NoDak in the WCHA tournament. We can definitely catch their .5278 TUC record. This one is not lost, but we must win our TUC games and Brown and QU, and cheer for NoDak.
5. BSU – our only common opponent is Niagara, so our record is always going to be better than theirs (they already have a loss and 2 games remaining). BSU will not get to 10 TUCs, so that won’t count, and we didn’t play head to head, so that won’t count. Therefore, this will always come down to RPI. We’ll have to go about 10-3 (assuming 2 games in Albany) to catch their .5572, which is tough but doable. Their RPI should also be dropping a bit, as they mostly have CHA games remaining, so 9-4 could probably do it, too.
6. UMD – They have 2 remaining vs. NoDak, and if they lose both, we’d be tied in COp, taking that point away from them. We can catch their .5278 TUC record, but it really doesn’t matter. If they get swept by NoDak, then the comparison comes down to TUC and RPI, so whoever owns RPI will take it. If they don’t get swept by NoDak, we’ll have to take TUC and RPI to win the comparison – either way, we have to catch them in RPI to take the comparison, which will take about a 9-4 record. Still, go Sioux!!!
7. FSU – Well, if Bowden stays on another year… Oh, right. Only common opponent is Yale, and we’ve both lost, so beating or tying Yale gives us this point. We’re both teetering on the edge of 10 TUC games and going .500 in those games, so that could easily go either way. Beating Yale could give us both the TUC and Cop, so that game is huge (duh). Oh, and in the meantime, Screw BU, FSU too!
8. UMass – If we sweep our remaining TUCs and they stumble a bit, we can catch their .6429 record. However, that’s unlikely, so we’ll probably have to flip both Cop and RPI to take this comparison. Fortunately, that’s pretty doable. 8-5 gets us to their current RPI, and we have common opponents remaining against QU, RPI, Union, and Yale. Going 2-1-1 in those regular season games will nose us ahead, and then we’d need to beat any of those teams we face in the playoffs. I’m going to put this comparison in the “control our own destiny” category. If we win our TUC and common opponent games and don’t screw up our non-TUC games, it won’t much matter what they do – we’ll take this comparison. Oh, and if they could lose a lot, that would be great, too.
9. UNH – again, their RPI is catchable with an 8-5 record, and the H2H point is huge. We also currently have COp, but we need to at least split our remaining games with Dartmouth and RPI to keep it. We only have 7 TUCs for this comparison (since the game against them doesn’t count), so we’d need to get 3 more TUC games and go at least 2-0-1 to catch their current TUC record. So, a very keepable comparison, as long as we do well against Dartmouth and RPI OR our TUCs.
10. Cornell – well, this one should be okay, as long as we don’t beat ourselves…
11. BC – They can’t catch us in COp, but TUC could be dicey, so this could easily come down to RPI, which is almost exactly tied. So we want BC to lose. A lot. And while I hate to see Harvard win, I’ll say that I’d like to see them in the Beanpot championship.
12. CC – they have a surprisingly bad TUC record, so that’s flipable, but it could swing a lot since they have 6 remaining + playoffs. They also have 2 remaining vs. NoDak, so we want NoDak to do better than 1-1 to take the COp (those are our only COp games with CC). If both TUC and COp flip to us, we don’t need to take RPI, which would require at least a 9-4 record, probably 10-3. Once again - Go Sioux and CC needs to suck.
13. MSU – Just an RPI comparison right now, which goes to them. That’s very catchable (.0042 ahead of us), though, as is their TUC record (.4688). We’re both 1.000 vs. common opponents, so we need to keep beating RPI and Clarkson to keep it that way.
14. UVM – We’re big BU and UHN fans here, as the COp can go either way. We also need to take care of Dartmouth and Yale. TUC is close, so we should also cheer for Northeastern over UVM if they meet in the HEA playoffs. RPI is tight.
15. Maine – Common opponents is close, so we need to take care of Princeton and Union and cheer for UNH and BU (2 games remaining vs. each). We’re both at .500 vs. TUCs, so that can go either way – they have 6 remaining to our 2.
16. NoDak – TUC probably won’t matter, unfortunately, since they won’t catch our record, but I doubt we’ll get 4 more TUC games. If they get a point off of CC (2 games remaining), then they’ll take the COp, making it all come down to RPI, where theirs will be going up due to the strength of the WCHA. So, go CC and we need UND to lose enough to keep their RPI down (while beating SCSU to help us with that one).
17. Yale – Well, H2H is obviously huge, so gotta win that game. We have so many common opponents remaining that that could go either way. They only have non-Cornell TUCs, so they’re not likely to get to 10 games, which is a shame because we should have a better TUC record. This will likely come down to a standings battle – if we stay ahead of them in the standings, we’ll have done well enough in our remaining games to keep this comparison.
18. Union – Just as with Yale, it’s an ECAC standings battle. Stay ahead of them in the standings, win the PWR comparison.
19. UML – TUC could go either way (both at .500), so we need to keep the COp by beating Colgate and Princeton and hope they lose to BU.
20. Michigan – We will keep the COp comparison, as we’re .833 to their .333. Our only remaining COp is RPI so even if (perish the thought) we lose 3 more games to RPI, we’d still have the comparison at .417 to .333. TUC could go either way, both at .500.
21. LSSU – Only COp is Union, and we both tied them, so need to beat Union to solidify this comparison. They will definitely get to 10 TUC games, which will help as they are only .188.
22. Minnesota – tied in COp, and they have 2 remaining vs. CC, so here’s a case where we want CC to win some games.
23. Northeastern – They can definitely win back the COp, with 3 remaining vs. BU and 2 vs. UNH. We probably actually want them to beat UNH (to help our comparison with UNH) and lose all 3 to BU. We’re in good shape on TUCs once we get to 10.
24. SLU – We are huge SLU fans the rest of the way. We need them to stay a TUC for so many comparisons! They could take back COp, but not if we keep winning, too – again, just watch the ECAC standings to know how this is going.
25. Notre Dame – They have the COp and will keep it due to their better performance vs. BU and the virtue of the fact that they tied UND in a single game while we split – they only have 1 game pulling them back down toward .500 while we have 2. Even if we beat Colgate 3 more times this year, we can’t catch them in COp. We should keep a higher RPI and our TUC is slightly ahead, so we are likely to keep this comparison – just a shame that the COps are keeping it so close.
So, to summarize our rooting interests:
Cornell
SLU over anybody but us
Miami, Denver, and Wisconsin over everyone, since we can't catch them anyway
NoDak over SCSU
NoDak over UMD
Anybody over FSU
Anybody over UMass
Anybody over BC
Anybody over MSU
BU and UNH over UVM and Maine
Non-TUCs vs. Nodak
BU over UML
Anybody over Michigan
Anybody over LSSU
CC over Minnesota
Northeastern over UNH
BU over Northeastern
Anybody over Notre Dame
CC and NoDak is the complicated one. If UND sweeps, they’ll have the COp against us. If CC sweeps, they’ll have the COp against us. And if neither sweeps, they’ll BOTH have the COp against us. Maybe their ice will just melt and they’ll cancel the series.
Obviously, we just want to win out, barring some bizarre circumstance. Example: we sweep RPI in the regular season and then face them in the conference title game, where an RPI win would put them into the top 25 of RPI and make them a TUC. It could be better for us to lose that game (PWR speaking, only, of course!) and get to count the 2-1 record against them in our TUC record, which will almost certainly be less than .667. The same thinking does not apply to facing Yale or Quinnipiac because even if we beat them in the RS, a loss in the title game would make us 1-2 against them, so we don't want that record to count.
Speaking of TUCs, we're currently 3-3-2, with TUC games against Yale and Union remaining, which would put us at exactly 10. Chances are that at least one game in Albany (assuming we make it) will be a TUC. However, SLU (and our 1-0-1 record against them) is currently at #24 in RPI, so we definitely want them to keep winning to remain a TUC. Our other TUC opponents (CC, UNH, NoDak) are all pretty solid TUCs, so those won’t change. We’re unlikely to get any help with teams becoming TUCs to our benefit. BU is just below the line at #28, but our 0-0-1 record against them won’t help. RPI has an outside shot at #31, but not too likely.
The RPI is the most critical factor, of course. If we were to win out (which we won't - keep your shirt on), our record would improve from 12-5-3 to 25-5-3 (.675 to .803). If our opponents and their opponents continue to win a the same rates, our RPI would then improve from .5422 all the way up to .5862, which would be good for 2nd best RPI. This won't happen, but it's just nice to know that not all is lost, even for those comparisons that hinge on RPI (lots of them, currently).
Breaking down the comparisons:
1. Miami: this comparison is toast. We’re tied on common opponents (COp) with none remaining, so that doesn’t count. We’d have to come close to winning out AND they’d have to tank to have a shot at catching their RPI, and we won’t catch their TUC record of 0.750.
2. Denver – they have 2 remaining vs UND, but even if they lose both, they’ll still have COp and TUC, so this one is toast, too.
3. Wisconsin – can’t catch them in COp (only Yale remaining for us), not likely in RPI – toast.
4. SCSU – We could actually catch them in Cop if they lose 2 to NoDak and we beat Brown, QU, and Union, especially if we get some bonus wins against those three in the ECAC tournament and SCSU loses to CC or NoDak in the WCHA tournament. We can definitely catch their .5278 TUC record. This one is not lost, but we must win our TUC games and Brown and QU, and cheer for NoDak.
5. BSU – our only common opponent is Niagara, so our record is always going to be better than theirs (they already have a loss and 2 games remaining). BSU will not get to 10 TUCs, so that won’t count, and we didn’t play head to head, so that won’t count. Therefore, this will always come down to RPI. We’ll have to go about 10-3 (assuming 2 games in Albany) to catch their .5572, which is tough but doable. Their RPI should also be dropping a bit, as they mostly have CHA games remaining, so 9-4 could probably do it, too.
6. UMD – They have 2 remaining vs. NoDak, and if they lose both, we’d be tied in COp, taking that point away from them. We can catch their .5278 TUC record, but it really doesn’t matter. If they get swept by NoDak, then the comparison comes down to TUC and RPI, so whoever owns RPI will take it. If they don’t get swept by NoDak, we’ll have to take TUC and RPI to win the comparison – either way, we have to catch them in RPI to take the comparison, which will take about a 9-4 record. Still, go Sioux!!!
7. FSU – Well, if Bowden stays on another year… Oh, right. Only common opponent is Yale, and we’ve both lost, so beating or tying Yale gives us this point. We’re both teetering on the edge of 10 TUC games and going .500 in those games, so that could easily go either way. Beating Yale could give us both the TUC and Cop, so that game is huge (duh). Oh, and in the meantime, Screw BU, FSU too!
8. UMass – If we sweep our remaining TUCs and they stumble a bit, we can catch their .6429 record. However, that’s unlikely, so we’ll probably have to flip both Cop and RPI to take this comparison. Fortunately, that’s pretty doable. 8-5 gets us to their current RPI, and we have common opponents remaining against QU, RPI, Union, and Yale. Going 2-1-1 in those regular season games will nose us ahead, and then we’d need to beat any of those teams we face in the playoffs. I’m going to put this comparison in the “control our own destiny” category. If we win our TUC and common opponent games and don’t screw up our non-TUC games, it won’t much matter what they do – we’ll take this comparison. Oh, and if they could lose a lot, that would be great, too.
9. UNH – again, their RPI is catchable with an 8-5 record, and the H2H point is huge. We also currently have COp, but we need to at least split our remaining games with Dartmouth and RPI to keep it. We only have 7 TUCs for this comparison (since the game against them doesn’t count), so we’d need to get 3 more TUC games and go at least 2-0-1 to catch their current TUC record. So, a very keepable comparison, as long as we do well against Dartmouth and RPI OR our TUCs.
10. Cornell – well, this one should be okay, as long as we don’t beat ourselves…
11. BC – They can’t catch us in COp, but TUC could be dicey, so this could easily come down to RPI, which is almost exactly tied. So we want BC to lose. A lot. And while I hate to see Harvard win, I’ll say that I’d like to see them in the Beanpot championship.
12. CC – they have a surprisingly bad TUC record, so that’s flipable, but it could swing a lot since they have 6 remaining + playoffs. They also have 2 remaining vs. NoDak, so we want NoDak to do better than 1-1 to take the COp (those are our only COp games with CC). If both TUC and COp flip to us, we don’t need to take RPI, which would require at least a 9-4 record, probably 10-3. Once again - Go Sioux and CC needs to suck.
13. MSU – Just an RPI comparison right now, which goes to them. That’s very catchable (.0042 ahead of us), though, as is their TUC record (.4688). We’re both 1.000 vs. common opponents, so we need to keep beating RPI and Clarkson to keep it that way.
14. UVM – We’re big BU and UHN fans here, as the COp can go either way. We also need to take care of Dartmouth and Yale. TUC is close, so we should also cheer for Northeastern over UVM if they meet in the HEA playoffs. RPI is tight.
15. Maine – Common opponents is close, so we need to take care of Princeton and Union and cheer for UNH and BU (2 games remaining vs. each). We’re both at .500 vs. TUCs, so that can go either way – they have 6 remaining to our 2.
16. NoDak – TUC probably won’t matter, unfortunately, since they won’t catch our record, but I doubt we’ll get 4 more TUC games. If they get a point off of CC (2 games remaining), then they’ll take the COp, making it all come down to RPI, where theirs will be going up due to the strength of the WCHA. So, go CC and we need UND to lose enough to keep their RPI down (while beating SCSU to help us with that one).
17. Yale – Well, H2H is obviously huge, so gotta win that game. We have so many common opponents remaining that that could go either way. They only have non-Cornell TUCs, so they’re not likely to get to 10 games, which is a shame because we should have a better TUC record. This will likely come down to a standings battle – if we stay ahead of them in the standings, we’ll have done well enough in our remaining games to keep this comparison.
18. Union – Just as with Yale, it’s an ECAC standings battle. Stay ahead of them in the standings, win the PWR comparison.
19. UML – TUC could go either way (both at .500), so we need to keep the COp by beating Colgate and Princeton and hope they lose to BU.
20. Michigan – We will keep the COp comparison, as we’re .833 to their .333. Our only remaining COp is RPI so even if (perish the thought) we lose 3 more games to RPI, we’d still have the comparison at .417 to .333. TUC could go either way, both at .500.
21. LSSU – Only COp is Union, and we both tied them, so need to beat Union to solidify this comparison. They will definitely get to 10 TUC games, which will help as they are only .188.
22. Minnesota – tied in COp, and they have 2 remaining vs. CC, so here’s a case where we want CC to win some games.
23. Northeastern – They can definitely win back the COp, with 3 remaining vs. BU and 2 vs. UNH. We probably actually want them to beat UNH (to help our comparison with UNH) and lose all 3 to BU. We’re in good shape on TUCs once we get to 10.
24. SLU – We are huge SLU fans the rest of the way. We need them to stay a TUC for so many comparisons! They could take back COp, but not if we keep winning, too – again, just watch the ECAC standings to know how this is going.
25. Notre Dame – They have the COp and will keep it due to their better performance vs. BU and the virtue of the fact that they tied UND in a single game while we split – they only have 1 game pulling them back down toward .500 while we have 2. Even if we beat Colgate 3 more times this year, we can’t catch them in COp. We should keep a higher RPI and our TUC is slightly ahead, so we are likely to keep this comparison – just a shame that the COps are keeping it so close.
So, to summarize our rooting interests:
Cornell
SLU over anybody but us
Miami, Denver, and Wisconsin over everyone, since we can't catch them anyway
NoDak over SCSU
NoDak over UMD
Anybody over FSU
Anybody over UMass
Anybody over BC
Anybody over MSU
BU and UNH over UVM and Maine
Non-TUCs vs. Nodak
BU over UML
Anybody over Michigan
Anybody over LSSU
CC over Minnesota
Northeastern over UNH
BU over Northeastern
Anybody over Notre Dame
CC and NoDak is the complicated one. If UND sweeps, they’ll have the COp against us. If CC sweeps, they’ll have the COp against us. And if neither sweeps, they’ll BOTH have the COp against us. Maybe their ice will just melt and they’ll cancel the series.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 01/31/2010 04:04AM by Robb.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: ebilmes (---.nys.biz.rr.com)
Date: January 31, 2010 04:09AM
Thank you, thank you, for doing this.
As always, winning is key, but it's fun to look at the details. We've moved up around 9 spots in PWR since the Florida tournament; let's keep the momentum going.
As always, winning is key, but it's fun to look at the details. We've moved up around 9 spots in PWR since the Florida tournament; let's keep the momentum going.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: jeff '84 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: January 31, 2010 08:37AM
Wow. Thank you.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Rita (---.hsd1.fl.comcast.net)
Date: January 31, 2010 08:43AM
Quite the treatise! 
. Thank you for the national picture of "who to root for".
. Thank you for the national picture of "who to root for".
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: January 31, 2010 09:10AM
Agree, wow. This was something to wake up to.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: January 31, 2010 09:47AM
Very nicely done. Thanks!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: January 31, 2010 09:55AM
Excellent stuff! 
How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?
How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 01/31/2010 09:57AM by Trotsky.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.99.202.62.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: January 31, 2010 11:42AM
Actually not that badly. We just need BC's RPI to go down, and a win over Harvard probably won't change BC's RPI very much anyway.Trotsky
Excellent stuff!
How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: krug138 (146.145.243.---)
Date: February 01, 2010 03:57PM
Fantastic stuff, thanks for posting the PWR analysis.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 01, 2010 04:01PM
So Robb, you know that you have to provide weekly updates to this for the next six weeks, right? 
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.203-62.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 01, 2010 04:03PM
Definitely. I can't always bring myself to stay up to watch the games anyway, so I have to get my hockey fix Sunday mornings analyzing the results.KeithK
So Robb, you know that you have to provide weekly updates to this for the next six weeks, right?
Re: PWR Pedagogery - the other FSU
Posted by: billhoward (---.hsd1.nj.comcast.net)
Date: February 01, 2010 08:33PM
You jest, sir. But there are two FSUs playing hockey. This does not appear to be Ferris State. I'm not sure how this FSU prononuces ice hockey but let's not go there. They even have a hip-hop Noles hockey website and stream games for $7 a pop.Robb
7. FSU – Well, if Bowden stays on another year… Oh, right. Only common opponent is Yale, and we’ve both lost, so beating or tying Yale gives us this point. We’re both teetering on the edge of 10 TUC games and going .500 in those games, so that could easily go either way. Beating Yale could give us both the TUC and Cop, so that game is huge (duh). Oh, and in the meantime, Screw BU, FSU too!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.107-92.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 02, 2010 01:01AM
Well, the Beanpot dropped our RPI by a whopping .0001. Unfortunately, it did improve BC's RPI enough to take back the comparison with us for now. So Harvard's loss didn't hurt us that much, but BC's win did.Robb
Actually not that badly. We just need BC's RPI to go down, and a win over Harvard probably won't change BC's RPI very much anyway.Trotsky
Excellent stuff!
How badly is Harvard's annual public crapping of themselves in the Beanpot going to hurt us?
We still need to root hard against BC - they need to lose and lose and lose some more.
Edit: also just noticed that the Union/Clarkson game on Friday is big. If Union doesn't win, Michigan State will take back the COp point from Union and flip the comparison, putting them ahead of us and BC (disregarding other effects of that game and other results Friday night, of course). So, go U!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/02/2010 01:08AM by Robb.
Re: PWR Pedagogery - the other FSU
Posted by: ugarte (---.z75-46-65.customer.algx.net)
Date: February 02, 2010 10:29AM
If she's on the team, and that's the uniform, I like their business model.billhoward
They even have a hip-hop Noles hockey website and stream games for $7 a pop.
___________________________
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
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Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/02/2010 11:30AM by ugarte.
Re: PWR Pedagogery - the other FSU
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: February 02, 2010 04:08PM
I'd go to the games.ugarte
If she's on the team, and that's the uniform, I like their business model.billhoward
They even have a hip-hop Noles hockey website and stream games for $7 a pop.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: jkahn (---.73.146.216.biz.sta.networkgci.net)
Date: February 02, 2010 06:15PM
So the Beanpot results alone moved us from #10 to #13 in PWR, with not only BC but Michigan St. and CC moving ahead of us. If it weren't purely (or poorly) mathematical, I think flakey would be a good descriptor of the way PWR acts.
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: February 02, 2010 06:46PM
"Sensitive" is the preferred term.jkahn
So the Beanpot results alone moved us from #10 to #13 in PWR, with not only BC but Michigan St. and CC moving ahead of us. If it weren't purely (or poorly) mathematical, I think flakey would be a good descriptor of the way PWR acts.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.212.62.81.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 06, 2010 02:03AM
I won't do a complete update today, but many good things happened for us last night!
1. We won.
2. UMD lost - to MTU! Eeek. This dropped them from 6th into a tie with us for 8th.
3. FSU tied, which is not as good as a loss, but every little bit helps.
4. UMass forgot to show up vs. BC and got smacked down hard in PWR for it. We don't want BC to do TOO well, but this was great for us.
5. MSU lost, 2-0 to UAF, AND Union snuck by Clarkson, so we really improved up our position vs. MSU. (this game just got over, and isn't included in the numbers I'm seeing yet, but it wll help).
6. UNH lost, so that helped firm up that comparison
A win for us + bad results for 5 teams near us = up to 9th today! (tied for 8th, but we lose the comparison to UMD by .0006 in RPI)
Edit: now that the MSU/UAF game is included, it somehow cost UMD some other comparison - not tracking closely enough to know which one. They still have us by .0006 in RPI, but we're a comparison ahead. Of course, that leaves us tied with CC at 8th, but they're beating us in RPI by .008 (ours went up .0029 with the win last night), so it will take a several more wins to take the CC comparison even if they don't improve theirs any more.
1. We won.
2. UMD lost - to MTU! Eeek. This dropped them from 6th into a tie with us for 8th.
3. FSU tied, which is not as good as a loss, but every little bit helps.
4. UMass forgot to show up vs. BC and got smacked down hard in PWR for it. We don't want BC to do TOO well, but this was great for us.
5. MSU lost, 2-0 to UAF, AND Union snuck by Clarkson, so we really improved up our position vs. MSU. (this game just got over, and isn't included in the numbers I'm seeing yet, but it wll help).
6. UNH lost, so that helped firm up that comparison
A win for us + bad results for 5 teams near us = up to 9th today! (tied for 8th, but we lose the comparison to UMD by .0006 in RPI)
Edit: now that the MSU/UAF game is included, it somehow cost UMD some other comparison - not tracking closely enough to know which one. They still have us by .0006 in RPI, but we're a comparison ahead. Of course, that leaves us tied with CC at 8th, but they're beating us in RPI by .008 (ours went up .0029 with the win last night), so it will take a several more wins to take the CC comparison even if they don't improve theirs any more.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/06/2010 05:53AM by Robb.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 06, 2010 04:33PM
Robb
...AND Union snuck by Clarkson, so we really...
Buried a little humor in there, huh? Nice!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.203-62.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 07, 2010 02:07AM
Ummmm....yeah. Remember all that progress we made on Friday? Good thing, because it helped partially offset Saturday's...well, I won't say disaster.
The two biggies were our loss, and possibly just as importantly later on, SLU's loss. That's not what hurts us today, because our TUC record doesn't count yet anyway, but I'd been hoping that our TUC record would help us in the future. Without SLU as a TUC (they dropped to 28th), it won't.
Without further ado:
1. Miami: you can't untoast bread. See last week's screed.
2. Denver – toast.
3. Wisconsin – toast.
4. SCSU – I'm going to go ahead and call this one for SCSU. Our "theoretical maximum" RPI at the end of the regular season (we win out and our opponents' and their opponents' records stay the same) is down to .5655, and SCSU is sitting at .5663. Sure, we could win out and they could tank, but...
5. BSU – their RPI is .5549, so they are dangerously close to clinching this one. I'm going to hold off calling it for one more week
6. BC – did not get the memo that they're supposed to be losing. This one is still quite conceivably in play, thanks to our COp record. Even if SLU doesn't end up as a TUC, winning out should be good enough to catch them in RPI, and if SLU does become a TUC, we have a decent chance of catching them in TUC.
7. CC - either SLU has to become a TUC OR NoDak has to go better than 1-1 against them, thanks to our head-to-head loss. This is a real shame, because CC's TUC record stinks, and we could miss a golden opportunity at a PWR win.
8. Maine - We can still take COp with a win over Union and BU sweeping Maine, and we could take TUC (did I mention go SLU?), which is good, because it will take an 8-2-1 record from here on out to catch their .5448 RPI.
9. UMD - still looking for a NoDak sweep on Feb 19-20 to neutralize COp, and even then it will take 9-2 from us to catch their RPI.
10. UMass - The Q win helped our COp; still need to do well against RPI, Union, and Yale. Can definitely keep RPI, so just keep winning!
11. NoDak - Need CC to sweep and we need to keep winning.
12. MSU - We need to keep beating RPI and Clarkson, and everyone else.
13. FSU - Oh, how the mighty have fallen. A 1-point weekend vs. NMU dropped them 7 spots and puts them easily within striking distance.
14. UVM - All categories are very tight. Still big BU and UHN fans the last 2 weekends in February.
15. Cornell - damn you, Princeton.
16. UNH - gotta beat Dartmouth and RPI, and keep our RPI up.
17. Yale - very tight. watch the ECAC standings and our remaining H2H game.
18. Union - again an ECAC standings battle.
19. Alaska-something - I never know which AK is which, but we need to at least tie RPI to keep the COp point with these guys. We can catch their TUC and RPI by winning.
20. Michigan - We will have COp and can keep RPI by winning.
21. BU - We'll keep COp at least through the end of the regular season, so just need to keep winning for RPI purposes.
22. LSSU - need to beat Union for COp.
23. Minnesota - go CC, and we need to beat Harvard.
24. NMU - We're both perfect vs. our only COp, Clarkson, so we'd need to sweep Clarkson if we see them in the playoffs. Similar TUC records, but it will take a lot for them to catch us in RPI, so this is pretty secure.
25. Lowell - Colgate is only remaining COp, so we just need to take care of them and keep winning.
The two biggies were our loss, and possibly just as importantly later on, SLU's loss. That's not what hurts us today, because our TUC record doesn't count yet anyway, but I'd been hoping that our TUC record would help us in the future. Without SLU as a TUC (they dropped to 28th), it won't.
Without further ado:
1. Miami: you can't untoast bread. See last week's screed.
2. Denver – toast.
3. Wisconsin – toast.
4. SCSU – I'm going to go ahead and call this one for SCSU. Our "theoretical maximum" RPI at the end of the regular season (we win out and our opponents' and their opponents' records stay the same) is down to .5655, and SCSU is sitting at .5663. Sure, we could win out and they could tank, but...
5. BSU – their RPI is .5549, so they are dangerously close to clinching this one. I'm going to hold off calling it for one more week
6. BC – did not get the memo that they're supposed to be losing. This one is still quite conceivably in play, thanks to our COp record. Even if SLU doesn't end up as a TUC, winning out should be good enough to catch them in RPI, and if SLU does become a TUC, we have a decent chance of catching them in TUC.
7. CC - either SLU has to become a TUC OR NoDak has to go better than 1-1 against them, thanks to our head-to-head loss. This is a real shame, because CC's TUC record stinks, and we could miss a golden opportunity at a PWR win.
8. Maine - We can still take COp with a win over Union and BU sweeping Maine, and we could take TUC (did I mention go SLU?), which is good, because it will take an 8-2-1 record from here on out to catch their .5448 RPI.
9. UMD - still looking for a NoDak sweep on Feb 19-20 to neutralize COp, and even then it will take 9-2 from us to catch their RPI.
10. UMass - The Q win helped our COp; still need to do well against RPI, Union, and Yale. Can definitely keep RPI, so just keep winning!
11. NoDak - Need CC to sweep and we need to keep winning.
12. MSU - We need to keep beating RPI and Clarkson, and everyone else.
13. FSU - Oh, how the mighty have fallen. A 1-point weekend vs. NMU dropped them 7 spots and puts them easily within striking distance.
14. UVM - All categories are very tight. Still big BU and UHN fans the last 2 weekends in February.
15. Cornell - damn you, Princeton.
16. UNH - gotta beat Dartmouth and RPI, and keep our RPI up.
17. Yale - very tight. watch the ECAC standings and our remaining H2H game.
18. Union - again an ECAC standings battle.
19. Alaska-something - I never know which AK is which, but we need to at least tie RPI to keep the COp point with these guys. We can catch their TUC and RPI by winning.
20. Michigan - We will have COp and can keep RPI by winning.
21. BU - We'll keep COp at least through the end of the regular season, so just need to keep winning for RPI purposes.
22. LSSU - need to beat Union for COp.
23. Minnesota - go CC, and we need to beat Harvard.
24. NMU - We're both perfect vs. our only COp, Clarkson, so we'd need to sweep Clarkson if we see them in the playoffs. Similar TUC records, but it will take a lot for them to catch us in RPI, so this is pretty secure.
25. Lowell - Colgate is only remaining COp, so we just need to take care of them and keep winning.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/07/2010 02:09AM by Robb.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 07, 2010 07:48AM
I'm still amazed, thanks.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: krug138 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: February 08, 2010 07:36PM
Thanks again, keep up the good work. I look forward to this each week now.
I know we'd love for SLU to climb back into the ranks of TUC's, but what about RPI? If they become a TUC wouldn't it be just as good or even better if we beat them a second time? SLU is 28th in RPI and RPI(Rensselaer) is 29th in RPI, so both are close to the top 25. Best case would be for both teams to make it, assuming we don't lose to RPI, correct?
I know we'd love for SLU to climb back into the ranks of TUC's, but what about RPI? If they become a TUC wouldn't it be just as good or even better if we beat them a second time? SLU is 28th in RPI and RPI(Rensselaer) is 29th in RPI, so both are close to the top 25. Best case would be for both teams to make it, assuming we don't lose to RPI, correct?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.client.stsn.net)
Date: February 09, 2010 02:33AM
Absolutely correct. The first time I did it, RPI was well below the line, but they're moving up fast - keep it up, RPI!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.airproducts.com)
Date: February 11, 2010 05:29PM
Of course, we need to beat RPI at Lynah in a couple weeks for them to help us as a TUC.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.172.62.81.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 14, 2010 05:45AM
Sigh. Huge opportunity lost in OT last night.
It's time to maybe start rooting AGAINST RPI and SLU so that they don't become TUCs so we won't get to 10 games. As of right now, if our TUC record (2-4-2, .375) counted, it would cost us three comparisons that we're currently winning: UNH, UMass, and UVM. Add in our current 2-0-1 against RPI and SLU and we'd be at 4-4-3, .500. UVM and UMass are also at exactly .500, so those would stay with us, but UNH is .526 (and excluding the game against them, we'd be at 3-4-3, .450, so that would still flip to them. So our TUC record isn't a major millstone around our necks, but it isn't going to be all that helpful, either.
Our (approximate) "theoretical maximum" for RPI dropped from .5655 to .5575, so we just cannot afford any more losses until Albany if we're serious about an at-large bid.
The run down:
1-4. No change
5. BSU - okay, so we didn't have a great weekend, but at least we didn't lose to RMU. Still clinging to a shred of hope, as their RPI fell to .5510. Keep on losing, BSU!
6. BC - no change. Still mostly an RPI battle. Would be nice if Lowell remained a TUC in case our record vs. TUCs ends up counting, since BC is 1-2 against them. However, if RPI and SLU become TUCs, then they're probably taking Lowell's place - catch 22. We'll always have COp!
7. CC - they are dangerously close to clinching RPI against us. They finish with the gauntlet of Minnesota (ok, maybe not a gauntlet - nice calfskin gloves, perhaps?), NoDak, and DU. They'll lose some of those, but get an SoS boost from NoDak and DU, so I doubt their RPI will shift much.
8. Yale - Still in play. We still have COp, so "all" we have to do to take this comparison is flip RPI. NO MORE LOSSES!
9. UMD - again, flipping RPI would do it. They have COp for now, with 2 remaining vs. NoDak. If they get swept, we'd be tied in COp. Their TUC is also a catchable .4412, but we simply have to show up for the Union, SLU and RPI games. I think we will get to 10 TUC games (9 RS + at least one in the ECACs), but the only way that matters is if they get swept by NoDak AND we beat Clarkson in the ECACs. Then we would have the COp and TUC points to outweigh their RPI advantage.
10. UNH - COp hinges on our upcoming games with RPI and Dartmouth, and we must keep COp to keep this PWR comparison. 3 points will do it, but a split is not good enough. And if BU/UNH meet in the HEA playoffs, go Terriers!
11. MSU - Just going to be an RPI comparison. Need to sweep Clarkson and RPI to keep up with their perfect COp record, but we can't flip COp to our side, so even then, we'd still have to overtake them in RPI.
12. UVM - thin, thin marginal win on RPI right now. They have COp, but 4 games remaining against BU and UNH. Even if we flip COp, it won't help if UVM flips RPI, so we just need to win. A lot.
13. NoDak - Well, at least their upcoming games against CC don't seem so critical now since we're already losing the comparisons to both. It will just come down to RPI, so we now want NoDak to lose a few (to hurt their own RPI) but not so many that it hurts OUR RPI.
14. Cornell - eek. Gotta cheer for BSU in the CHA tourney. The silver lining would be the hilarity of 50% of the CHA getting bids.
15. UMass - winning on RPI. We could flip COp back to us by beating RPI and Union, but it won't matter if we can't keep RPI.
16. FSU - Oh, how short a time we knew ye. With only 1 win in their last 6 games... what? what's that? They STILL have the PWR comparison over us??? Ugh. We have to take their RPI, so they need to keep losing some more.
17. Maine - They got swept by BU (good), but we needed a point from Yale to take COp (tied at .500 now), so that will come down to whether we do better against Princeton/SLU/Union in the playoffs than they do against UNH/BU. That's bet I would take. Unfortunately, it won't matter without keeping RPI, so Maine needs to lose some more.
18. BU - their two wins vs. Maine were not enough to catch us in RPI, but juuuust barely. We want them to go about .500 the rest of the way, beating the TUCs around us like they did with Maine, but then losing to some losers - Providence next weekend would fit the bill nicely!
19. Alaska - only common opponent is RPI, so this must be the CCHA Alaska. Hmmm. Still not sure. Anyway, need to at least tie RPI to keep COp, but (broken record) we also have to keep the RPI comparison.
20-25. NU/Union/NMU/LSSU/UNO/Lowell - I'm lumping all of these in together because the story is the same: we either have (or are tied for) COp and are beating them in RPI. With the exception of Union, they all just come down to RPI, since that trumps the COp comparison, no matter which way it goes. For Union, if they beat us and take COp, then that would overcome our lead in RPI.
Looking at the bigger picture, it's interesting that so many comparisons come down to RPI only. This is because our TUC record doesn't count right now, thanks to the rest of the ECAC sucking. We tried our best - heck, 5 of our 7 non-conference games were against TUCs. Hard to argue with that scheduling, but when there are only 2 other ECAC TUCs, that only gets you to 9 regular season games. I have to think that we'll face either Yale or Union in the ECACs to get to 10, but it's not guaranteed. I'm sort of giving up hope that RPI or SLU are going to crawl back above #25 at this point.
Also, of those 8 TUC games we've played so far, we tied BU, split with NoDak, and tied Union, so H2H is only coming into play for 3 out of the 25 PWR comparisons for us - UNH, CC, and Yale. So for 21 of the 24 comparisons, there's no H2H component and no TUC component, so those all come down just to RPI. Man, I could have saved myself a lot of work if I'd put it into those terms earlier!
It's time to maybe start rooting AGAINST RPI and SLU so that they don't become TUCs so we won't get to 10 games. As of right now, if our TUC record (2-4-2, .375) counted, it would cost us three comparisons that we're currently winning: UNH, UMass, and UVM. Add in our current 2-0-1 against RPI and SLU and we'd be at 4-4-3, .500. UVM and UMass are also at exactly .500, so those would stay with us, but UNH is .526 (and excluding the game against them, we'd be at 3-4-3, .450, so that would still flip to them. So our TUC record isn't a major millstone around our necks, but it isn't going to be all that helpful, either.
Our (approximate) "theoretical maximum" for RPI dropped from .5655 to .5575, so we just cannot afford any more losses until Albany if we're serious about an at-large bid.
The run down:
1-4. No change
5. BSU - okay, so we didn't have a great weekend, but at least we didn't lose to RMU. Still clinging to a shred of hope, as their RPI fell to .5510. Keep on losing, BSU!
6. BC - no change. Still mostly an RPI battle. Would be nice if Lowell remained a TUC in case our record vs. TUCs ends up counting, since BC is 1-2 against them. However, if RPI and SLU become TUCs, then they're probably taking Lowell's place - catch 22. We'll always have COp!
7. CC - they are dangerously close to clinching RPI against us. They finish with the gauntlet of Minnesota (ok, maybe not a gauntlet - nice calfskin gloves, perhaps?), NoDak, and DU. They'll lose some of those, but get an SoS boost from NoDak and DU, so I doubt their RPI will shift much.
8. Yale - Still in play. We still have COp, so "all" we have to do to take this comparison is flip RPI. NO MORE LOSSES!
9. UMD - again, flipping RPI would do it. They have COp for now, with 2 remaining vs. NoDak. If they get swept, we'd be tied in COp. Their TUC is also a catchable .4412, but we simply have to show up for the Union, SLU and RPI games. I think we will get to 10 TUC games (9 RS + at least one in the ECACs), but the only way that matters is if they get swept by NoDak AND we beat Clarkson in the ECACs. Then we would have the COp and TUC points to outweigh their RPI advantage.
10. UNH - COp hinges on our upcoming games with RPI and Dartmouth, and we must keep COp to keep this PWR comparison. 3 points will do it, but a split is not good enough. And if BU/UNH meet in the HEA playoffs, go Terriers!
11. MSU - Just going to be an RPI comparison. Need to sweep Clarkson and RPI to keep up with their perfect COp record, but we can't flip COp to our side, so even then, we'd still have to overtake them in RPI.
12. UVM - thin, thin marginal win on RPI right now. They have COp, but 4 games remaining against BU and UNH. Even if we flip COp, it won't help if UVM flips RPI, so we just need to win. A lot.
13. NoDak - Well, at least their upcoming games against CC don't seem so critical now since we're already losing the comparisons to both. It will just come down to RPI, so we now want NoDak to lose a few (to hurt their own RPI) but not so many that it hurts OUR RPI.
14. Cornell - eek. Gotta cheer for BSU in the CHA tourney. The silver lining would be the hilarity of 50% of the CHA getting bids.
15. UMass - winning on RPI. We could flip COp back to us by beating RPI and Union, but it won't matter if we can't keep RPI.
16. FSU - Oh, how short a time we knew ye. With only 1 win in their last 6 games... what? what's that? They STILL have the PWR comparison over us??? Ugh. We have to take their RPI, so they need to keep losing some more.
17. Maine - They got swept by BU (good), but we needed a point from Yale to take COp (tied at .500 now), so that will come down to whether we do better against Princeton/SLU/Union in the playoffs than they do against UNH/BU. That's bet I would take. Unfortunately, it won't matter without keeping RPI, so Maine needs to lose some more.
18. BU - their two wins vs. Maine were not enough to catch us in RPI, but juuuust barely. We want them to go about .500 the rest of the way, beating the TUCs around us like they did with Maine, but then losing to some losers - Providence next weekend would fit the bill nicely!
19. Alaska - only common opponent is RPI, so this must be the CCHA Alaska. Hmmm. Still not sure. Anyway, need to at least tie RPI to keep COp, but (broken record) we also have to keep the RPI comparison.
20-25. NU/Union/NMU/LSSU/UNO/Lowell - I'm lumping all of these in together because the story is the same: we either have (or are tied for) COp and are beating them in RPI. With the exception of Union, they all just come down to RPI, since that trumps the COp comparison, no matter which way it goes. For Union, if they beat us and take COp, then that would overcome our lead in RPI.
Looking at the bigger picture, it's interesting that so many comparisons come down to RPI only. This is because our TUC record doesn't count right now, thanks to the rest of the ECAC sucking. We tried our best - heck, 5 of our 7 non-conference games were against TUCs. Hard to argue with that scheduling, but when there are only 2 other ECAC TUCs, that only gets you to 9 regular season games. I have to think that we'll face either Yale or Union in the ECACs to get to 10, but it's not guaranteed. I'm sort of giving up hope that RPI or SLU are going to crawl back above #25 at this point.
Also, of those 8 TUC games we've played so far, we tied BU, split with NoDak, and tied Union, so H2H is only coming into play for 3 out of the 25 PWR comparisons for us - UNH, CC, and Yale. So for 21 of the 24 comparisons, there's no H2H component and no TUC component, so those all come down just to RPI. Man, I could have saved myself a lot of work if I'd put it into those terms earlier!
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/14/2010 05:50AM by Robb.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: February 14, 2010 12:02PM
These run-downs are amazing, Robb (even when they're a a little depressing). Thanks again.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: andyw2100 (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 14, 2010 12:11PM
Trotsky
These run-downs are amazing, Robb (even when they're a a little depressing). Thanks again.
What he said!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.203-62.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 17, 2010 02:58AM
Quick note from the wacky world of PWR: it won't be fun for MSU fans this morning to wake up and find that Cornell's win dropped them from #11 to #14. We overtook their RPI to win the comparison for now, so they dropped down to 12 PWR wins, along with NoDak who wins the comparison with MSU.
The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid. UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD. Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16. In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.
Lots of PWR action left this season for sure!
The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid. UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD. Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16. In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.
Lots of PWR action left this season for sure!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: krug138 (146.145.243.---)
Date: February 17, 2010 10:01AM
Great stuff, thanks again and keep it coming!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: ugarte (---.z75-46-65.customer.algx.net)
Date: February 17, 2010 11:35AM
This froth may clear up a little now that UVM has dumped their #2 scorer.Robb
The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid. UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD. Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16. In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.
___________________________
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.raytheon.com)
Date: February 17, 2010 12:26PM
From the article quoted on the Milo thread it sounds like he's only one of several problems: two other guys leaving the team and two injuries. Never know when a team will "rally from adversity" however.ugarte
This froth may clear up a little now that UVM has dumped their #2 scorer.Robb
The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid. UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD. Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16. In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.203-62.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 17, 2010 01:18PM
That, and nothing short of finding out Milo was involved in, say, some sort of hazing scandal that cancels the rest of their season will take away their wins over Denver and UMD, so even if UVM keeps tanking they'll still have COp over lots of WCHA teams. Of course, if they keep tanking, those "frothy" PWC wins will be raising them from 20th to 16th (instead of from 16th to 12th) so they'll be out of the tournament. Those PWC wins will probably continue to haunt some teams in the tournament, though. SCSU is a lock for the tournament, but they lose the comparison to UVM right now because of UVM's big wins. SCSU is very close to flipping both COp and TUC with UVM, though, so that won't last unless SCSU swoons down the stretch (and when has that ever happened?Trotsky
From the article quoted on the Milo thread it sounds like he's only one of several problems: two other guys leaving the team and two injuries. Never know when a team will "rally from adversity" however.ugarte
This froth may clear up a little now that UVM has dumped their #2 scorer.Robb
The comparisons in the 9-15 range are incredibly close, with lots of "froth" on the individual comparisons grid. UVM wins an incredible 4 comparisons with teams above them, thanks in large part to their 2-1 record vs. Denver and UMD. Add in a few more big TUC wins in HEA, and the PWR puts them far above their RPI at #16. In turn, 4 teams ranked below UVM beat them, too, because UVM's RPI is low.
)
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.airproducts.com)
Date: February 17, 2010 04:55PM
My (selfish) take:
Part of me wants Cornell to finish in the 11-14 slot in the PWR. That way we'll stay east for a change. Unless BC makes a mighty push, the 1 and 2 seeds will be out west. Therefore, 7, 8, 9 and 10 will also be out west (barring same-conference matchups) and 11-14 stay east.
OTOH, if we end up 9 or 10, we get an easier opponent, someone whose RPI is much closer to our and is likely more comparable in talent to us.
What to do, What to do?
Part of me wants Cornell to finish in the 11-14 slot in the PWR. That way we'll stay east for a change. Unless BC makes a mighty push, the 1 and 2 seeds will be out west. Therefore, 7, 8, 9 and 10 will also be out west (barring same-conference matchups) and 11-14 stay east.
OTOH, if we end up 9 or 10, we get an easier opponent, someone whose RPI is much closer to our and is likely more comparable in talent to us.
What to do, What to do?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: RichH (167.225.107.---)
Date: February 17, 2010 05:18PM
Jeff Hopkins '82
What to do, What to do?
Just win, baby.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: jkahn (---.73.146.216.biz.sta.networkgci.net)
Date: February 17, 2010 05:32PM
Exactly what I thought when I read Jeff H.'s post. Anyway, things likely will get juggled somewhat with six WCHA teams in the mix. And right now, for instance, BC is 6, we're 10 and NH and UVM are 11-12. So we'd get moved east at 10 to play BC. Of course it won't be that way at the finish, but as Al D. (not the elynah Al D.). and Rich H. say, just win, baby.RichH
Jeff Hopkins '82
What to do, What to do?
Just win, baby.
___________________________
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Jeff Kahn '70 '72
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.115.197.118.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: February 20, 2010 04:02PM
Yeah, that what I thought as I was writing it.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.105-92.cust.bluewin.ch)
Date: February 21, 2010 04:30AM
Well this is painful.
I think we can pretty much put to rest any hope that RPI or SLU will be TUCs, so RPI (the index) just became a whole lot more important. Our max RPI is now down to about .5479, which would put us about 7th best. I'm going to go ahead and call that we can't finish above any of the 6 who are currently better than that (also 1-6 in PWR), so the rundown starts with:
7. NoDak - we have to win out and they need to lose a few games for us to have a shot at catching their RPI. CC series next weekend will determine who keeps the COp comparison, but it doesn't really matter, because even if CC sweeps NoDak we still have to catch NoDak's RPI to win the PWC, so I think we should actually be rooting for NoDak next weekend to help with our CC comparison, and then hope that NoDak gets swept out of the WCHA playoffs.
8. UNH - Ugh. The loss to Dartmouth gives them the COp for now. To win back the PWC, we either need to take their RPI (currently .5419, so this essentially requires winning out) OR beat RPI (the school) and then win more vs. RPI and Dartmouth in the ECACs than UNH does vs. BU to take back COp.
9. BC - We actually have the COp comparison pretty solidly, so we don't have to beat their RPI (which would require winning out) if we beat two more TUCs (Union + Union or Yale in the playoffs) and they don't beat many more TUCs. They have 2 vs. UNH this weekend. If BC or UNH sweeps, we have a pretty fair shot at beating the loser and will never catch the winner. On the other hand, if they split and the cards align juuuuust right, we might still be able to take back both.
10. MSU - can take their RPI with a 4-1-1 record or better. If we don't do that, we can't win this PWC. We're both perfect in our COp games vs. RPI and Clarkson, so only bad things can happen if/when we play them again. Since we can't take the COp, TUC alone wouldn't be enough if we don't beat their RPI, so this is just an RPI comparison.
11. UMD - Taking RPI would do it, but that will take a 5-1 or better, so essentially requires winning out. The only other way to win is to take the TUC and COp categories. TUC is possible, but we need 2 wins and they can't do better than about .500 in their remaining TUC games. Unfortunately, COp is a lot tougher - we need another win vs. Clarkson. Clarkson has clinched last place (which I predicted in the USCHO pick the standings competition - go me), so the only way we can see them in the playoffs is to get first place (take 3 or 4 MORE points than Yale gets next weekend) and Clarkson wins their first round series.
12. FSU - Either have to take their RPI (doable with 4-1-1) or get two TUC wins, one of which must be against Yale to also take COp.
13. Union - Jeez. I can't believe Union is ahead of us now. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Anyway, their RPI is ahead of ours by .0001, so that's certainly catchable. They also have the slimmest of margins in COp, and of course the H2H game(s) remaining. This really just comes down to our H2H with them - if we beat them, we'll get the RPI boost needed to take this back while theirs will fall.
14. Alaska - I just noticed that the logo shown on Sioux Sports's PWR list has a polar bear, so these must be the ones with the awesome exploding polar bear videos. I guess this must be Fairbanks, then, since it's not a Seawolf. Anyway, we need to keep RPI to win this comparison. We can't catch their TUC even with 2 more wins, so regardless of what happens with COp (can keep by beating RPI), we'll need to beat them in RPI to win the comparison.
15. Cornell - still holding onto an at-large bid by the skin of no tournament upsets. Gotta be huge BSU fans in the CHA tournament. It's a pretty safe bet that one of the top 5 WCHA teams will win (90% according to playoffstatus.com), that one of the top 4 CCHA teams will win (77%), and that Yale, Cornell or Union takes the ECAC (77%), so the only one I really worry about is HEA, where we need UNH or BC to win - per playoffstatus.com, there's a 60% chance that someone else will be HEA champion, so #15 is more likely to be on the outside looking in than it is to get an at-large bid.
16. Maine - we theoretically could win this comparison without keeping RPI, but it would involve our getting two more TUC wins (with the win over Union giving us the COp comparison as well) AND Maine losing at least 2 more TUC games. Not too likely, so we pretty much just have to keep RPI.
17. CC - laid two eggs this weekend vs. Minny - one goose egg and one, um, chicken egg, I guess. And yet, they still have a better RPI and that darn H2H win. We have to take back RPI to overcome the H2H loss, and that will take 5-0-1 or better.
18-25. NU/UVM/UNO/UNM/BU/UML/Minny/UMich - again, a lumped group where we just need to keep RPI to keep winning the comparisons. The only two of note are that Minny's sweep of CC gives them the COp, which we can't get back unless we beat Harvard a couple more times AND they lose to CC/UND. Therefore, if we lose 2 more TUC games (so that TUC counts) then they'd have us in COp and TUC, so they'd take the comparison even if we stay ahead in RPI. Similarly, our loss to Dartmouth gives UVM the COp over us, but they have 2 remaining vs. BU. We'd like BU to take at least 3 points there to flip COp back to us AND put TUC in our camp once we get our 2 more TUC games.
Well, that's a pretty bleak picture, I have to say. 1-7 are gone, and taking back the comparisons from 8-12 essentially require winning out (which would give us the auto-bid anyway). #13 is Union, who we can take with H2H win(s). Without winning out, then, 13th is about the best we can hope for in PWR, so we're clinging to an auto-bid by the skin of our teeth. We can probably stand one more loss, but almost certainly not two. So we don't QUITE have to win the ECAC championship to make it, but we will if we drop a game next weekend.
I can't believe THIS team (Greening, Nash, Gallagher, Scrivens) is so close to missing the NCAAs. Considering the hopes we had upon learning that Nash and Greening were coming back... Just too painful to think about.
OTOH, if we sweep next weekend and make it to the ECAC championship game, it's possible we could still end up with a 3 seed, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.
Let's Go Red!!!!
I think we can pretty much put to rest any hope that RPI or SLU will be TUCs, so RPI (the index) just became a whole lot more important. Our max RPI is now down to about .5479, which would put us about 7th best. I'm going to go ahead and call that we can't finish above any of the 6 who are currently better than that (also 1-6 in PWR), so the rundown starts with:
7. NoDak - we have to win out and they need to lose a few games for us to have a shot at catching their RPI. CC series next weekend will determine who keeps the COp comparison, but it doesn't really matter, because even if CC sweeps NoDak we still have to catch NoDak's RPI to win the PWC, so I think we should actually be rooting for NoDak next weekend to help with our CC comparison, and then hope that NoDak gets swept out of the WCHA playoffs.
8. UNH - Ugh. The loss to Dartmouth gives them the COp for now. To win back the PWC, we either need to take their RPI (currently .5419, so this essentially requires winning out) OR beat RPI (the school) and then win more vs. RPI and Dartmouth in the ECACs than UNH does vs. BU to take back COp.
9. BC - We actually have the COp comparison pretty solidly, so we don't have to beat their RPI (which would require winning out) if we beat two more TUCs (Union + Union or Yale in the playoffs) and they don't beat many more TUCs. They have 2 vs. UNH this weekend. If BC or UNH sweeps, we have a pretty fair shot at beating the loser and will never catch the winner. On the other hand, if they split and the cards align juuuuust right, we might still be able to take back both.
10. MSU - can take their RPI with a 4-1-1 record or better. If we don't do that, we can't win this PWC. We're both perfect in our COp games vs. RPI and Clarkson, so only bad things can happen if/when we play them again. Since we can't take the COp, TUC alone wouldn't be enough if we don't beat their RPI, so this is just an RPI comparison.
11. UMD - Taking RPI would do it, but that will take a 5-1 or better, so essentially requires winning out. The only other way to win is to take the TUC and COp categories. TUC is possible, but we need 2 wins and they can't do better than about .500 in their remaining TUC games. Unfortunately, COp is a lot tougher - we need another win vs. Clarkson. Clarkson has clinched last place (which I predicted in the USCHO pick the standings competition - go me), so the only way we can see them in the playoffs is to get first place (take 3 or 4 MORE points than Yale gets next weekend) and Clarkson wins their first round series.
12. FSU - Either have to take their RPI (doable with 4-1-1) or get two TUC wins, one of which must be against Yale to also take COp.
13. Union - Jeez. I can't believe Union is ahead of us now. Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Anyway, their RPI is ahead of ours by .0001, so that's certainly catchable. They also have the slimmest of margins in COp, and of course the H2H game(s) remaining. This really just comes down to our H2H with them - if we beat them, we'll get the RPI boost needed to take this back while theirs will fall.
14. Alaska - I just noticed that the logo shown on Sioux Sports's PWR list has a polar bear, so these must be the ones with the awesome exploding polar bear videos. I guess this must be Fairbanks, then, since it's not a Seawolf. Anyway, we need to keep RPI to win this comparison. We can't catch their TUC even with 2 more wins, so regardless of what happens with COp (can keep by beating RPI), we'll need to beat them in RPI to win the comparison.
15. Cornell - still holding onto an at-large bid by the skin of no tournament upsets. Gotta be huge BSU fans in the CHA tournament. It's a pretty safe bet that one of the top 5 WCHA teams will win (90% according to playoffstatus.com), that one of the top 4 CCHA teams will win (77%), and that Yale, Cornell or Union takes the ECAC (77%), so the only one I really worry about is HEA, where we need UNH or BC to win - per playoffstatus.com, there's a 60% chance that someone else will be HEA champion, so #15 is more likely to be on the outside looking in than it is to get an at-large bid.
16. Maine - we theoretically could win this comparison without keeping RPI, but it would involve our getting two more TUC wins (with the win over Union giving us the COp comparison as well) AND Maine losing at least 2 more TUC games. Not too likely, so we pretty much just have to keep RPI.
17. CC - laid two eggs this weekend vs. Minny - one goose egg and one, um, chicken egg, I guess. And yet, they still have a better RPI and that darn H2H win. We have to take back RPI to overcome the H2H loss, and that will take 5-0-1 or better.
18-25. NU/UVM/UNO/UNM/BU/UML/Minny/UMich - again, a lumped group where we just need to keep RPI to keep winning the comparisons. The only two of note are that Minny's sweep of CC gives them the COp, which we can't get back unless we beat Harvard a couple more times AND they lose to CC/UND. Therefore, if we lose 2 more TUC games (so that TUC counts) then they'd have us in COp and TUC, so they'd take the comparison even if we stay ahead in RPI. Similarly, our loss to Dartmouth gives UVM the COp over us, but they have 2 remaining vs. BU. We'd like BU to take at least 3 points there to flip COp back to us AND put TUC in our camp once we get our 2 more TUC games.
Well, that's a pretty bleak picture, I have to say. 1-7 are gone, and taking back the comparisons from 8-12 essentially require winning out (which would give us the auto-bid anyway). #13 is Union, who we can take with H2H win(s). Without winning out, then, 13th is about the best we can hope for in PWR, so we're clinging to an auto-bid by the skin of our teeth. We can probably stand one more loss, but almost certainly not two. So we don't QUITE have to win the ECAC championship to make it, but we will if we drop a game next weekend.
I can't believe THIS team (Greening, Nash, Gallagher, Scrivens) is so close to missing the NCAAs. Considering the hopes we had upon learning that Nash and Greening were coming back... Just too painful to think about.
OTOH, if we sweep next weekend and make it to the ECAC championship game, it's possible we could still end up with a 3 seed, so I'm not giving up hope just yet.
Let's Go Red!!!!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: jeff '84 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: February 21, 2010 08:07AM
Thanks!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: February 21, 2010 09:21AM
Brilliant as always. Thanks Robb.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: krug138 (---.dyn.optonline.net)
Date: February 21, 2010 09:39AM
Thanks Robb
Let's go Red!
Let's go Red!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: ebilmes (---.nys.biz.rr.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 01:11AM
Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?
[playoffstatus.com]
[playoffstatus.com]
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 07:39AM
Now we are down to 20%, but the sig. stat is no (zero) chance if we lose the conf. tourney. But that assumes all teams win and lose games as expected.ebilmes
Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?
[playoffstatus.com]
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: billhoward (---.hsd1.nj.comcast.net)
Date: February 22, 2010 11:14AM
Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Kyle Rose (---.deploy.akamaitechnologies.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 11:38AM
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 01:24PM
But they said that about SU's BB from last year till this, and look at what happened there.Kyle Rose
Especially with this lineup. What a waste of a graduating (and likely early-departure) class, followed next year by what is sure to be an ugly rebuilding season.billhoward
Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Kyle Rose (---.deploy.akamaitechnologies.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 01:37PM
I never give up all hope, but I just look at who's (definitely+likely) leaving and who's staying, and an awful lot of underclassmen will have to step up big-time to fill the void. It's just really too bad that this team couldn't get it together: on paper, they're at least as good as '03, but they have been unable to get over their inconsistency.Jim Hyla
But they said that about SU's BB from last year till this, and look at what happened there.Kyle Rose
Especially with this lineup. What a waste of a graduating (and likely early-departure) class, followed next year by what is sure to be an ugly rebuilding season.billhoward
Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 02:01PM
I don't disagree, I was responding to the "what is sure to be an ugly rebuilding season.". I'm just saying it doesn't have to be.Kyle Rose
I never give up all hope, but I just look at who's (definitely+likely) leaving and who's staying, and an awful lot of underclassmen will have to step up big-time to fill the void. It's just really too bad that this team couldn't get it together: on paper, they're at least as good as '03, but they have been unable to get over their inconsistency.Jim Hyla
But they said that about SU's BB from last year till this, and look at what happened there.Kyle Rose
Especially with this lineup. What a waste of a graduating (and likely early-departure) class, followed next year by what is sure to be an ugly rebuilding season.billhoward
Would be a sad way to mark the 40th anniversary of the 29-0 season.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: mikek (---.GD-AIS.COM)
Date: February 22, 2010 02:15PM
Jim Hyla
Now we are down to 20%, but the sig. stat is no (zero) chance if we lose the conf. tourney. But that assumes all teams win and lose games as expected.ebilmes
Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?
[playoffstatus.com]
That 0% seems a little fishy. We have a better chance of making the tourney if we win based on expected performance than if we win all games and then lose the con. final (to Yale presumably)?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: ugarte (---.z75-46-65.customer.algx.net)
Date: February 22, 2010 03:18PM
I think it means that we have 0% chance if we fail to win out if every non-Cornell game goes according to expectations. It is possible that a combination of non-Cornell results could provide a cushion for us to get into the tournament without winning ECACs.mikek
Jim Hyla
Now we are down to 20%, but the sig. stat is no (zero) chance if we lose the conf. tourney. But that assumes all teams win and lose games as expected.ebilmes
Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?
[playoffstatus.com]
That 0% seems a little fishy. We have a better chance of making the tourney if we win based on expected performance than if we win all games and then lose the con. final (to Yale presumably)?
Right?
___________________________
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
quality tweets | bluesky (twitter 2) | ALAB Series podcast | Other podcasts and writing
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: mikek (---.GD-AIS.COM)
Date: February 22, 2010 03:54PM
ugarte
I think it means that we have 0% chance if we fail to win out if every non-Cornell game goes according to expectations. It is possible that a combination of non-Cornell results could provide a cushion for us to get into the tournament without winning ECACs.mikek
Jim Hyla
Now we are down to 20%, but the sig. stat is no (zero) chance if we lose the conf. tourney. But that assumes all teams win and lose games as expected.ebilmes
Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?
[playoffstatus.com]
That 0% seems a little fishy. We have a better chance of making the tourney if we win based on expected performance than if we win all games and then lose the con. final (to Yale presumably)?
Right?
The way I read it is we have a 20% chance if every game including Cornell's goes to expectation. If we win out and then lose in the final and all other games go to expectation then we have a 0% chance. Seems to suggest we'd be better off losing 2 games than 1... Could it be a PWR quirk that beating Union twice (I imagine that would be the expected semi matchup) actually hurts their value so much (maybe eliminates them as a TUC) that it drags us down?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: ursusminor (---.res.east.verizon.net)
Date: February 22, 2010 03:58PM
There has got to be something wrong with the algorithms used on that site. On this page [playoffstatus.com] the ECAC games being played next Friday are ranked as to importance in the standings on a 0 to 100 basis. Somehow the RPI-Colgate game received a score of 114. 
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 22, 2010 05:20PM
I think it means that we are expected to beat all the teams we will play except Yale and maybe toss-up with Union. Therefore we have good probability of winning all the games up to Yale in the ECAC finals. If we win all of those, but lose to Yale we can't go. However, we also have a chance of losing one of those games up to the finals, therefore with our expected probabilities we have a 20% chance of going. For example, we lose to Union but then win the tourney, we go. But if we lose to Union, the chance of winning the tourney lessens, thus the 20%.
Yale is in a better shape because they are more likely to beat the teams they are playing than we are. Also their current position is such that even if the lose the finals they go. However if they lose a game before the finals it drops their chance to 66%.
Maybe?
Yale is in a better shape because they are more likely to beat the teams they are playing than we are. Also their current position is such that even if the lose the finals they go. However if they lose a game before the finals it drops their chance to 66%.
Maybe?
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: marty (---.sub-75-195-82.myvzw.com)
Date: February 23, 2010 08:56AM
ursusminor
There has got to be something wrong with the algorithms used on that site. On this page [playoffstatus.com] the ECAC games being played next Friday are ranked as to importance in the standings on a 0 to 100 basis. Somehow the RPI-Colgate game received a score of 114.
Maybe someone at Colgate divided by zero? An engineer would never make such an error.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: kaelistus (---.hfc.comcastbusiness.net)
Date: February 23, 2010 01:30PM
All those numbers look very iffy to me. I don't trust the math that determines the Cornell vs Union game is the least important game of next week.
___________________________
Kaelistus == Felix Rodriguez
'Screw Cornell Athletics' is a registered trademark of Cornell University
Kaelistus == Felix Rodriguez
'Screw Cornell Athletics' is a registered trademark of Cornell University
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.dc.dc.cox.net)
Date: February 23, 2010 01:56PM
That could be because it's only important for 2 or 3 teams, while games in the middle of the pack can affect 8 or 9.kaelistus
All those numbers look very iffy to me. I don't trust the math that determines the Cornell vs Union game is the least important game of next week.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: ursusminor (---.nrl.navy.mil)
Date: February 24, 2010 06:10AM
I suspect that is correct, and also the teams can't move far in the standings based upon the result.Trotsky
That could be because it's only important for 2 or 3 teams, while games in the middle of the pack can affect 8 or 9.kaelistus
All those numbers look very iffy to me. I don't trust the math that determines the Cornell vs Union game is the least important game of next week.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: February 24, 2010 07:35AM
Hey, we're up to 24% and <1% if we lose conf tourney. At least it's not 0 like it was.ebilmes
Am I reading this correctly that Cornell only has a 22% chance of making the NCAA tournament, according to their statistical projections?
[playoffstatus.com]
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: mikek (---.GD-AIS.COM)
Date: February 27, 2010 01:09PM
Up to #10 after beating Union Friday. Let's hope we can avoid the Saturday let down this weekend. It being senior night tonight I don't see intensity or motivation being a problem though.
Not many comparisons out there left to win though. BC, UNH, and CC are the only ones we have a shot at.
7. BC - we need to get to 10 TUC and beat their record (currently .500, our record would be .500 with one more win).
8. ND - Probably can't win this baring a collapse and at least 2 losses to CC.
9. UNH - Lots of possibilities are in play with UNH. Their rpi is reachable but we need them to lose some games. TUCs could come into play if we get 2 more (Union in semis and Yale in final is the only way). We would have to win both (making this moot as we would have won the ECAC, but I'll go on anyway) and have them lose at least 2 TUC games. We can even up COp with a win vs. RPI tonight and take the comparison with one positive COp result in either the HE or ECAC playoffs. We have H2H so we just need one of those comparisons to go the other way.
BC and UNH play 2 next week so our rooting interest in that should be interesting.
16. CC - To beat CC we need them to lose to ND tonight which would give us the COp comparison and probably allow us to pass them in rpi if we beat RPI.
Things below us get pretty complicated if we get to 10 TUC games. Lots of teams are sitting at .500 or just 1 game above in TUC which is probably just out of our range. We could get to 5-4-2 but that would mean we got the autobid. For non title scenarios we could only get to .500 if we beat Union in the semis and lost to someone other than Yale in the championship. We hold the COp in a lot of those close TUC matchups right now so we could survive losing the TUC comparisons, but depending on playoff matchups things could go the other way. RPI seems to be a COp in many of our close matchups so a win tonight is crucial for both COp and maintaining our rpi.
If we lost to RPI tonight we would likely lose the Mich St. and Alaska comparisons if TUC becomes a factor.
We also stand to lose the Vermont comparison if TUC becomes a factor. We could win back the COp comparsion with the right playoff matchup and results. We either need them to lose to BU on Sunday or if they beat BU then have BU fall apart and no longer be a TUC.
Still lots of different ways for things to shake out depending on what side of 10 TUC games we fall on. As usual just winning is the simplest solution.
Not many comparisons out there left to win though. BC, UNH, and CC are the only ones we have a shot at.
7. BC - we need to get to 10 TUC and beat their record (currently .500, our record would be .500 with one more win).
8. ND - Probably can't win this baring a collapse and at least 2 losses to CC.
9. UNH - Lots of possibilities are in play with UNH. Their rpi is reachable but we need them to lose some games. TUCs could come into play if we get 2 more (Union in semis and Yale in final is the only way). We would have to win both (making this moot as we would have won the ECAC, but I'll go on anyway) and have them lose at least 2 TUC games. We can even up COp with a win vs. RPI tonight and take the comparison with one positive COp result in either the HE or ECAC playoffs. We have H2H so we just need one of those comparisons to go the other way.
BC and UNH play 2 next week so our rooting interest in that should be interesting.
16. CC - To beat CC we need them to lose to ND tonight which would give us the COp comparison and probably allow us to pass them in rpi if we beat RPI.
Things below us get pretty complicated if we get to 10 TUC games. Lots of teams are sitting at .500 or just 1 game above in TUC which is probably just out of our range. We could get to 5-4-2 but that would mean we got the autobid. For non title scenarios we could only get to .500 if we beat Union in the semis and lost to someone other than Yale in the championship. We hold the COp in a lot of those close TUC matchups right now so we could survive losing the TUC comparisons, but depending on playoff matchups things could go the other way. RPI seems to be a COp in many of our close matchups so a win tonight is crucial for both COp and maintaining our rpi.
If we lost to RPI tonight we would likely lose the Mich St. and Alaska comparisons if TUC becomes a factor.
We also stand to lose the Vermont comparison if TUC becomes a factor. We could win back the COp comparsion with the right playoff matchup and results. We either need them to lose to BU on Sunday or if they beat BU then have BU fall apart and no longer be a TUC.
Still lots of different ways for things to shake out depending on what side of 10 TUC games we fall on. As usual just winning is the simplest solution.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 27, 2010 02:03PM
Thanks again. Please lets us know which teams we should cheer for next weekend.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (---.client.stsn.net)
Date: February 27, 2010 07:25PM
Good - I nominate mikek to do the honors in the morning. I'm staying up to watch the game tonight (dammit!) after having worked approximately 75 hours this week, and at least another 12 to go tomorrow. Big work deadline on Monday...
In the meantime, here's all the wisdom I can muster: winning = good. losing = bad.
LGR!
In the meantime, here's all the wisdom I can muster: winning = good. losing = bad.
LGR!
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: scoop85 (---.hvc.res.rr.com)
Date: February 27, 2010 09:41PM
Robb
Good - I nominate mikek to do the honors in the morning. I'm staying up to watch the game tonight (dammit!) after having worked approximately 75 hours this week, and at least another 12 to go tomorrow. Big work deadline on Monday...
In the meantime, here's all the wisdom I can muster: winning = good. losing = bad.
LGR!
And tonight's tie does what?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: mikek (---.GD-AIS.COM)
Date: February 28, 2010 10:04AM
Ok but today's verison will be shorter, just had some time to kill yesterday... Tie actually didn't hurt too bad, at least for now. We lost the COp comparison to Mich St, but we stayed ahead in RPI as they tied with Bowling Green. We we're able keep the COp with Alaska, a loss would have meant we we're even.
The UMD comparison could be interesting. We are currently tied with them in COp and could take the TUC category with a win against Union and a loss to Yale. We need them to get in a playoff matchup with CC or North Dakota (preferrable because we don't want CC to win much) and lose.
We got a couple favorable results last night with Mich St. and Ferris both tying inferior opponents. Even though we kept the Alaska comparison they moved past us into 9th and we dropped to 11th. We're still just clinging to that RPI cliff though with 4 or 5 teams hanging around right behind us just waiting for us to lose.
I think we defininitely need to root for BU against Vermont today as it will be hard for BU to catch our RPI and we have the COp solidly in hand.
The UMD comparison could be interesting. We are currently tied with them in COp and could take the TUC category with a win against Union and a loss to Yale. We need them to get in a playoff matchup with CC or North Dakota (preferrable because we don't want CC to win much) and lose.
We got a couple favorable results last night with Mich St. and Ferris both tying inferior opponents. Even though we kept the Alaska comparison they moved past us into 9th and we dropped to 11th. We're still just clinging to that RPI cliff though with 4 or 5 teams hanging around right behind us just waiting for us to lose.
I think we defininitely need to root for BU against Vermont today as it will be hard for BU to catch our RPI and we have the COp solidly in hand.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: upperdeck (---.syrcny.east.verizon.net)
Date: February 28, 2010 12:34PM
what exactly has VT managed to do to be ranked so high in PWR yet almost didnt even qualify for the hockey east playoffs? the OC results of 6-1 managed to carry them thru such a poor reg season?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: mikek (---.ph.ph.cox.net)
Date: February 28, 2010 01:09PM
upperdeck
what exactly has VT managed to do to be ranked so high in PWR yet almost didnt even qualify for the hockey east playoffs? the OC results of 6-1 managed to carry them thru such a poor reg season?
Wins against Denver and UMD are helping their COp against the WCHA and their TUC record isn't bad considering their overall record. They stand to steal the comparison against us if we get to 10 TUC games (the Dartmouth loss could haunt us here). We need them lose to BU today and then either lose again to BU or UNH in the playoffs (if they make it...) or we need to win against SLU, Dartmouth, or Yale.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.twcny.res.rr.com)
Date: February 28, 2010 02:58PM
Yale means we win the ECAC's, I'll take that. Dartmouth could be quarter-finals, or SLU in the semis. LGRmikek
upperdeck
what exactly has VT managed to do to be ranked so high in PWR yet almost didnt even qualify for the hockey east playoffs? the OC results of 6-1 managed to carry them thru such a poor reg season?
Wins against Denver and UMD are helping their COp against the WCHA and their TUC record isn't bad considering their overall record. They stand to steal the comparison against us if we get to 10 TUC games (the Dartmouth loss could haunt us here). We need them lose to BU today and then either lose again to BU or UNH in the playoffs (if they make it...) or we need to win against SLU, Dartmouth, or Yale.
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: February 28, 2010 02:59PM
We could also beat Yale in the consy.Jim Hyla
Yale means we win the ECAC's, I'll take that. Dartmouth could be quarter-finals, or SLU in the semis. LGR
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (195.33.34.---)
Date: February 28, 2010 03:24PM
I seem to recall that we still need a win over Clarkson for one of the CoPs. Now THAT would be sweet to get!
(you do the math)
(you do the math)
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Dpperk29 (128.153.223.---)
Date: February 28, 2010 04:48PM
Robb
I seem to recall that we still need a win over Clarkson for one of the CoPs. Now THAT would be sweet to get!
(you do the math)
Cya in the semifinals!
___________________________
"That damn bell at Clarkson." -Ken Dryden in reference to his hatred for the Clarkson Bell.
"That damn bell at Clarkson." -Ken Dryden in reference to his hatred for the Clarkson Bell.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.115.197.118.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: February 28, 2010 04:53PM
Robb
I seem to recall that we still need a win over Clarkson for one of the CoPs. Now THAT would be sweet to get!
(you do the math)
Unfortunately, one of those was with Michigan State. And last night's tie makes that COP un-winnable. But a Clarkson win would flip COP with Minn-Duluth. More likely scenario is we flip that with a CC or UND win over Duluth.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: March 01, 2010 11:46AM
Al Davis isn't exactly the greatest example anymore. Quote stil works.Trotsky
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: adamw (209.71.42.---)
Date: March 05, 2010 12:49PM
upperdeck
what exactly has VT managed to do to be ranked so high in PWR yet almost didnt even qualify for the hockey east playoffs? the OC results of 6-1 managed to carry them thru such a poor reg season?
They still might not qualify - since there's a week remaining in the regular season .... But it's very tightly compacted. 2 or 3 points separate 4th from 9th.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Al DeFlorio (---.hsd1.ma.comcast.net)
Date: March 06, 2010 09:06AM
Now #11, three comparisons behind UHN.
___________________________
Al DeFlorio '65
Al DeFlorio '65
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Nathan Chicowdy 92 (66.28.239.---)
Date: March 11, 2010 02:27PM
Can someone please, please provide an updated PWR assessment for the coming weekend? Can BU face UnivNoHardware in the HE tourney and flip the CoP for us? Would CoP even matter for that comparison if we advance to Albany? Is NoHardware the only comparison that is up for grabs and is not 100% RPI-dependent? I need my PWR fix here, people.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Robb (67.201.120.---)
Date: March 11, 2010 04:16PM
Sorry - travelling for work again, working ~80 hours per week, so I'm lucky to be checking in at all. Someone else is going to have to pick up the slack!
The good news is that my travels are not that far from Albany...
The good news is that my travels are not that far from Albany...
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: amerks127 (---.arts.cornell.edu)
Date: March 11, 2010 04:38PM
Nathan Chicowdy 92
Can someone please, please provide an updated PWR assessment for the coming weekend? Can BU face UnivNoHardware in the HE tourney and flip the CoP for us? Would CoP even matter for that comparison if we advance to Albany? Is NoHardware the only comparison that is up for grabs and is not 100% RPI-dependent? I need my PWR fix here, people.
I'm not a PWR expert, but here's the best synopsis of what you need to know: A series of Cornell victories will take care of everything else.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: KeithK (---.external.lmco.com)
Date: March 11, 2010 07:26PM
Didn't JTW have a possibilities script for the NCAAs in previous years? Are you slacking John?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: French Rage (---.packetdesign.com)
Date: March 11, 2010 07:28PM
amerks127
Nathan Chicowdy 92
Can someone please, please provide an updated PWR assessment for the coming weekend? Can BU face UnivNoHardware in the HE tourney and flip the CoP for us? Would CoP even matter for that comparison if we advance to Albany? Is NoHardware the only comparison that is up for grabs and is not 100% RPI-dependent? I need my PWR fix here, people.
I'm not a PWR expert, but here's the best synopsis of what you need to know: A series of Cornell victories will take care of everything else.
Win the next 8 and I like our chances of winning the championship.
___________________________
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
03/23/02: Maine 4, Harvard 3
03/28/03: BU 6, Harvard 4
03/26/04: Maine 5, Harvard 4
03/26/05: UNH 3, Harvard 2
03/25/06: Maine 6, Harvard 1
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (Moderator)
Date: March 11, 2010 11:58PM
KeithK
Didn't JTW have a possibilities script for the NCAAs in previous years? Are you slacking John?
[www.collegehockeynews.com]
You are the Committee
This tool will be ready for use following the conclusion of the best-of-3 playoff series on the March 13-15 weekend.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: RichH (65.14.229.---)
Date: March 12, 2010 08:03AM
jtwcornell91
This tool will be ready for use following the conclusion of the best-of-3 playoff series on the March 13-15 weekend.
Oh, COME ON. Am I going to have to be the one to make the joke?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jim Hyla (---.arthritishealthdoctors.com)
Date: March 12, 2010 08:21AM
What do you mean, they're going to celebrate on the ice? There is an appropriate emoticon, but....RichH
jtwcornell91
This tool will be ready for use following the conclusion of the best-of-3 playoff series on the March 13-15 weekend.
Oh, COME ON. Am I going to have to be the one to make the joke?
___________________________
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
"Cornell Fans Made the Timbers Tremble", Boston Globe, March/1970
Cornell lawyers stopped the candy throwing. Jan/2005
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: mikek (---.GD-AIS.COM)
Date: March 12, 2010 03:22PM
Important PWR matchups for this weekend:
UMD vs. CC - best case scenario is probably a CC victory in 3 games. This would give us the COp against UMD and put some distance between us in rpi. Might allow CC to catch up in rpi but we should be fine if we win.
CCHA playoffs - not sure who we want here as we are surrounded by CCHA teams in the PWR. We want Mich to beat Mich St. We want Miami to continue to win so no bids get stolen. The other two matchups feature PWR teams around us on both sides. Probably want Alaska since they are already ahead of us and UNO since they are the furthest behind and we have the COp comparison against both.
HEA playoffs - Also a complicated PWR situation here as there are lots of teams in the 16 - 23 range. Probably want UMass, Mass-Lowell, and Vermont all to lose as they are the closest to us. BU beating UNH in the finals would win us the UNH comparison, but that would also give BU a bid so I don't think we want that. I think we want BU to win this week so they stay a TUC. Vermont beating UNH probably wouldn't be bad as it would likely give us the UNH comparison (could cost us VT comparison though).
Overall the PWR situation is still very messy at this point and its hard to know who to root for this weekend.
UMD vs. CC - best case scenario is probably a CC victory in 3 games. This would give us the COp against UMD and put some distance between us in rpi. Might allow CC to catch up in rpi but we should be fine if we win.
CCHA playoffs - not sure who we want here as we are surrounded by CCHA teams in the PWR. We want Mich to beat Mich St. We want Miami to continue to win so no bids get stolen. The other two matchups feature PWR teams around us on both sides. Probably want Alaska since they are already ahead of us and UNO since they are the furthest behind and we have the COp comparison against both.
HEA playoffs - Also a complicated PWR situation here as there are lots of teams in the 16 - 23 range. Probably want UMass, Mass-Lowell, and Vermont all to lose as they are the closest to us. BU beating UNH in the finals would win us the UNH comparison, but that would also give BU a bid so I don't think we want that. I think we want BU to win this week so they stay a TUC. Vermont beating UNH probably wouldn't be bad as it would likely give us the UNH comparison (could cost us VT comparison though).
Overall the PWR situation is still very messy at this point and its hard to know who to root for this weekend.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.115.197.118.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 13, 2010 07:58AM
Amazing how Alaska dropped with the one loss. I haven't worked it out, but if they lose again to NMU, AK will probably stay below us, even if we don't win out.
Also fascinating is that if Yale loses again, we could actually flip the comparison with them. Go figure.
And Union down to only 1 comparison, If they lose to Q again, they may no longer stay a TUC, and that may take TUC record out of play for us.
Also fascinating is that if Yale loses again, we could actually flip the comparison with them. Go figure.
And Union down to only 1 comparison, If they lose to Q again, they may no longer stay a TUC, and that may take TUC record out of play for us.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Trotsky (---.hsd1.md.comcast.net)
Date: March 13, 2010 10:50AM
So, wait. Who we rooting or now?
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.115.197.118.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 13, 2010 11:41AM
Trotsky
So, wait. Who we rooting for now?
That would be Cornell.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: nyc94 (---.cable.mindspring.com)
Date: March 13, 2010 01:14PM
Trotsky
So, wait. Who we rooting or now?
I'm starting with Robert Morris to beat Bemidji in the CHA consolation game at 4 PM. I don't think we can pass them without winning out so it's just out of spite.
Re: PWR Pedagogery
Posted by: Jeff Hopkins '82 (---.115.197.118.res-cmts.sm.ptd.net)
Date: March 13, 2010 02:19PM
nyc94
Trotsky
So, wait. Who we rooting or now?
I'm starting with Robert Morris to beat Bemidji in the CHA consolation game at 4 PM. I don't think we can pass them without winning out so it's just out of spite.
Actually, that's right. If Bemidji loses and we win out, we pass them in RPI and flip the comparison. If they win tonight, we can't catch them in RPI and will lose the comparison.
In fact, if Bemidji lose tonight, the comparison St. Cloud and UHN will flip, too. I don't think Bemidji will drop out of an at-large bid, but it could be close.
Edit: After their tie in the consy, we might still catch them in RPI but it'll be by fractional points. It may depend on who we play.
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