top 15 2/7
Posted by Greg Berge
top 15 2/7
Posted by: Greg Berge (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 01:05AM
W 01 Colorado College L 02 Maine (lost to #6 BC) W 03 North Dakota - 04 New Hampshire W 05 Cornell W 06 Boston College L 07 Minnesota (lost to #1 CC) W 08 Michigan W 09 Ferris State W 10 Ohio State L 11 Denver (lost to unranked UMD) W 12 Boston University W 13 Harvard - 14 Mankato State - 15 St. Cloud State
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Tub(a) (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 01:36AM
Am I right in thinking that the Maine loss coupled with a BU Beanpot win would be very good for us?
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 01:52AM
Are we talking polls or PWR?
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Greg Berge (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 02:03AM
Polls. PWR corrects itself at midnight every night, so there's no point.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 02:38AM
I doubt Maine'll drop beneath us, having still beaten us, and us having done nothing to prove that we deserve to be ahead of them. That is unless they lose again on Sunday, but seeing as they're playing Merrimack, that's not too likely.
We're not close enough to UNH in the polls (43 points) to pass them without them dropping something, even with the nice victory over Dmouth.
The BU win would be nice to make sure we don't drop below BC, but seeing as the game'll come after this week's poll is announced, it won't make a big difference anyway.
As far as PWR, we really can't go up without other people losing. We're currently tied for third with BC, and losing comparisons to 1 CC, 2 Maine, and 6 (losing tie for 5) UND .
In our CC comparison we lose all three categories. We're not passing them in RPI unless they serious stumble (currently over 0.0200 behind), we have a small shot to pass them in TUC wins, and since I think the rest of the games are conference for both teams, COp isn't changing. The best seems to be a 2-1 lose.
We're currently tied with Maine, but they take it on RPI . We win TUC and COp, but lose RPI and the 1 H2H . The again nearly 0.0200 difference in RPI isn't being overcome w/o a Maine stumble, so that one will stay with them.
UND wins RPI and we win TUC - both perfect against COp. The only way we can win that one is to pick up RPI, which is very doable, only trailing by 0.0010, but they'd need to stumble once to make it happen. Their schedule the rest of the way out doesn't look weak enough to drop them automatically.
On the flip side, there are only three comparisons that we currently barely win. BC we win 2-1, but a BU win against BC on Monday would solidify us in the COp category and probably give us the RPI one too, making it a 3-0 sweep.
vs. UNH we win 2-1, but lose the vital RPI category, and barely wining TUC . Root against UNH, especially against TUCs.
Finally, we beat Minn 2-1. COp we lose and likely isn't going anywhere, TUC we win well, but RPI we barely win. Root for Minny to drop one too.
So, overall analysis is barring some team (including us) breaking down, our PWR range appears to be 3 to 7ish, depending on how the stars align . Sure, no one probably wanted that much analysis, but it's 2:30 am and I had to do something before bed .
We're not close enough to UNH in the polls (43 points) to pass them without them dropping something, even with the nice victory over Dmouth.
The BU win would be nice to make sure we don't drop below BC, but seeing as the game'll come after this week's poll is announced, it won't make a big difference anyway.
As far as PWR, we really can't go up without other people losing. We're currently tied for third with BC, and losing comparisons to 1 CC, 2 Maine, and 6 (losing tie for 5) UND .
In our CC comparison we lose all three categories. We're not passing them in RPI unless they serious stumble (currently over 0.0200 behind), we have a small shot to pass them in TUC wins, and since I think the rest of the games are conference for both teams, COp isn't changing. The best seems to be a 2-1 lose.
We're currently tied with Maine, but they take it on RPI . We win TUC and COp, but lose RPI and the 1 H2H . The again nearly 0.0200 difference in RPI isn't being overcome w/o a Maine stumble, so that one will stay with them.
UND wins RPI and we win TUC - both perfect against COp. The only way we can win that one is to pick up RPI, which is very doable, only trailing by 0.0010, but they'd need to stumble once to make it happen. Their schedule the rest of the way out doesn't look weak enough to drop them automatically.
On the flip side, there are only three comparisons that we currently barely win. BC we win 2-1, but a BU win against BC on Monday would solidify us in the COp category and probably give us the RPI one too, making it a 3-0 sweep.
vs. UNH we win 2-1, but lose the vital RPI category, and barely wining TUC . Root against UNH, especially against TUCs.
Finally, we beat Minn 2-1. COp we lose and likely isn't going anywhere, TUC we win well, but RPI we barely win. Root for Minny to drop one too.
So, overall analysis is barring some team (including us) breaking down, our PWR range appears to be 3 to 7ish, depending on how the stars align . Sure, no one probably wanted that much analysis, but it's 2:30 am and I had to do something before bed .
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Greg Berge (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 02:53AM
BTW, with Maine losing Cornell now has the second best winning percentage in the nation. It would be great to finish strong and have the best, even if with SOS it wouldn't help us all that much.
.845 Colorado College .818 Cornell .810 North Dakota .793 Maine .732 Ohio State
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 08:54AM
Greg wrote:
The PWR on USCHO updates itself instantly from their score database. (I.e., if the table is older than the latest score, it's recalculated.) My PWR on slack is dynamically generated at 2:41 each morning, but at this point the only thing it has that USCHO's doesn't is the breakdown of opponents for each team. So you should go to USCHO unless you're trying to see who the TUCs are, or which teams are contributing how to the RPI SOS.
Polls. PWR corrects itself at midnight every night, so there's no point.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Robb (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 09:15AM
We especially need to root against UNH and BC - if they sneak ahead of us in any sort of PWR tiebreaker scenario, hello Western Regionals as a #1 seed. Playing UMinn @ Mariucci is not my idea of fun....
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: curoadkill (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 11:25AM
When judging the TUC criteria vs. HEA schools, remember that they all have a bunch of wins vs. current TUC Northeastern, whose winning percentage is about .350, but RPI is exactly .500. If/when NE falls out, it'll be a big help in thosre comparisons (especially vs. UNH).
Also regarding the UND comparison, we still have COP left with them. We need to beat Yale (on the road... for the first time in forever...) and Princeton to stay perfect in COP.
EDIT: It seems that since last night, NE has somehow fallen out of TUC. I guess some late game had a weird effect. But their RPI is now .4995. Anyway, it's really amazing to look at the comparison between Maine and CC. It may come down to whether Michigan Tech or Northeastern are TUCs at the end. If Tech falls out, CC losses 3 wins and a tie and the comparison gets much tighter between the two. It's annoying that the side affect of changing the criteria for TUC involves letting crappy teams in good conferences influence the top so damn much.
Also regarding the UND comparison, we still have COP left with them. We need to beat Yale (on the road... for the first time in forever...) and Princeton to stay perfect in COP.
EDIT: It seems that since last night, NE has somehow fallen out of TUC. I guess some late game had a weird effect. But their RPI is now .4995. Anyway, it's really amazing to look at the comparison between Maine and CC. It may come down to whether Michigan Tech or Northeastern are TUCs at the end. If Tech falls out, CC losses 3 wins and a tie and the comparison gets much tighter between the two. It's annoying that the side affect of changing the criteria for TUC involves letting crappy teams in good conferences influence the top so damn much.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 12:07PM
Likewise, if Clarkson makes it to a TUC, and if we beat Brown again and they do anyway, then that also helps us there. Good point about Yale/Princeton. The Yale game gets even bigger now.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: nyc94 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 03:29PM
It seems to me that the number one seeds and region assignments are going to hinge on the outcome of the conference tournaments - especially the Hockey East tournament and us winning the ECAC tournament. Forgetting PWR for a moment, I think it is perceived that if we are any good (by which I mean top four good) we will win the ECAC and if we don't then we aren't worthy of a #1 seed. Assuming Maine, New Hampshire and BC all hover around the top five in both the polls and PWR then the Hockey East tournament winner will (likely) get a number one seed as a "reward". If we lose the tournament then the Hockey East or WCHA runner up has a strong claim on a #1.
Are there any wrenches in this year's placements like the travel restrictions last year or the flipping of the east-west 5 and six seeds of the old 12 team field days? Or are they just going to do it like basketball and rank their top 16 and then place the teams where they fall according to a preset model - after taking geography into account for the number ones? Are they going to try to avoid intraconference matchups in the first round? Multiple rounds? I remember reading an explanation on USCHO and thinking it was like Thunderdome - there are no rules.
Are there any wrenches in this year's placements like the travel restrictions last year or the flipping of the east-west 5 and six seeds of the old 12 team field days? Or are they just going to do it like basketball and rank their top 16 and then place the teams where they fall according to a preset model - after taking geography into account for the number ones? Are they going to try to avoid intraconference matchups in the first round? Multiple rounds? I remember reading an explanation on USCHO and thinking it was like Thunderdome - there are no rules.
Tournament seeding
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 04:09PM
There were never rules, but there was a combination of guidelines and precedent that made it possible to make some educated guesses. This year, with the NCAA D1 Men's Championship Handbook still "coming soon" and no past 16-team hockey tournaments to go by, we don't even have that.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 04:20PM
EDIT: JTW makes a good point, but this is how it worked in the past. Also, before anyone catches me, they're not actually determined by PWR, but they're determined by a similar process with identical results.
From how I understand it, after the 16 teams are decided by PWR/autobids, the seedings are decided by:
1) How good the team is
2) Avoiding intra-conference matchups in the first two rounds
3) Attendence draw
"First two rounds" this year, effectively means region, so they'll try not to put a team from the same conference in the same region. However, with 4 very good, eastern New England HEA teams (Maine, UNH, BC, BU), chances are two of them will be in the same region... cause you know if they send both BU and BC west, there'll be hell to pay, or at least hear (plus, isn't BU hosting Worcester again?).
While actually winning your conference tournament is not something that's explicitly looked at (excluding getting an autobid), the one thing it did make me realize, is that out of Maine, UNH, BC, and BU, 3 of them have to lose a game near the end of the season! And better yet, unless they falter early, they have to lose a TUC game! Which might vault us ahead of them enough to capture the #1 in the east or NE.
Our best chances to stay east (IMHO) are finishing as one of the top 2 eastern teams in the PWR, and getting a #1 seed or finish as a 4-8 team, so they don't feel pressure to put us in the west as a #1, and instead give us a #2 in one of the east regionals. Of course, while PWR has always managed to predict the field correctly, I have never seen anyone guess the seedings correctly. The committee always seems to come up with some way to juggle it that no one expected.
From how I understand it, after the 16 teams are decided by PWR/autobids, the seedings are decided by:
1) How good the team is
2) Avoiding intra-conference matchups in the first two rounds
3) Attendence draw
"First two rounds" this year, effectively means region, so they'll try not to put a team from the same conference in the same region. However, with 4 very good, eastern New England HEA teams (Maine, UNH, BC, BU), chances are two of them will be in the same region... cause you know if they send both BU and BC west, there'll be hell to pay, or at least hear (plus, isn't BU hosting Worcester again?).
While actually winning your conference tournament is not something that's explicitly looked at (excluding getting an autobid), the one thing it did make me realize, is that out of Maine, UNH, BC, and BU, 3 of them have to lose a game near the end of the season! And better yet, unless they falter early, they have to lose a TUC game! Which might vault us ahead of them enough to capture the #1 in the east or NE.
Our best chances to stay east (IMHO) are finishing as one of the top 2 eastern teams in the PWR, and getting a #1 seed or finish as a 4-8 team, so they don't feel pressure to put us in the west as a #1, and instead give us a #2 in one of the east regionals. Of course, while PWR has always managed to predict the field correctly, I have never seen anyone guess the seedings correctly. The committee always seems to come up with some way to juggle it that no one expected.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 04:24PM
DeltaOne81 '03 wrote:
Except when Quinnipiac was in the top 12 in PWR.
PWR has always managed to predict the field correctly
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---)
Date: February 08, 2003 04:38PM
I knew, no matter how careful I was, you'd find something . At least I covered myself on two of the three "almost but not exactly" points.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Chris 02 (---)
Date: February 09, 2003 09:28AM
Sunday,Saturday,Friday
-,L,W 01 Colorado College (split to #7 Minnesota) W,-,L 02 Maine (lost to #6 BC) -,L,W 03 North Dakota (split with unranked Michigan Tech) L,-,- 04 New Hampshire (lost to unranked Providence) -,W,W 05 Cornell -,-,W 06 Boston College (beat #2 Maine) -,W,L 07 Minnesota (split #1 CC) -,W,W 08 Michigan -,W,W 09 Ferris State -,W,W 10 Ohio State -,L,L 11 Denver (lost to unranked UMD) -,-,W 12 Boston University -,-,W 13 Harvard -,-,- 14 Mankato State -,-,- 15 St. Cloud State
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: jtwcornell91 (---)
Date: February 09, 2003 09:53AM
Chris '02 wrote:
To clarify, both games were against MTU, so you should write "split with unranked Michigan Tech" to be consistent.
Saturday's results (Friday)
L,W 03 North Dakota (lost to unranked Michigan Tech)
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: DeltaOne81 (---)
Date: February 09, 2003 12:17PM
True... actually, the main USCHO PWR page breaks it by RPI, having us lose the tie, but the "individual comparison chart" page has us winning the tie, probably for the head to head comparison reason. But hopefully BU can win their 28983457th Beanpot tomorrow and eliminate the concern at all.
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Section A (---)
Date: February 09, 2003 04:08PM
Ohio State's goaltender Mike Betz looks very midget-like in front of the goal on the front page of USCHO - sort of funny actually.
(didn't feel like starting a new thread to mention this, so since OSU is in the top 15, I thought this'd be the place for it )
(didn't feel like starting a new thread to mention this, so since OSU is in the top 15, I thought this'd be the place for it )
Re: top 15 2/7
Posted by: Josh '99 (---)
Date: February 09, 2003 07:14PM
Chris '02 wrote:
In HE Sunday games, #4 UNH lost at unranked Providence, and #2 Maine beat unranked Merrimack at home.
L,W 01 Colorado College (split to #7 Minnesota) -,L 02 Maine (lost to #6 BC) L,W 03 North Dakota (split with unranked Michigan Tech) -,- 04 New Hampshire W,W 05 Cornell -,W 06 Boston College (beat #2 Maine) W,L 07 Minnesota (split #1 CC) W,W 08 Michigan W,W 09 Ferris State W,W 10 Ohio State L,L 11 Denver (lost to unranked UMD) -,W 12 Boston University -,W 13 Harvard -,- 14 Mankato State -,- 15 St. Cloud State
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