tonight's ecac line

Since my attempt to cram as many puns into two sentences as I could the other night went unnoticed (who starts sentences with "See, men"?), I thought I'd post something slightly more interesting. Here's the line on tonight's ECAC games:

                               odds  spread  over/under

Harvard     over RENSSELAER     7:1    -2       5½
Brown       over UNION         even     0       5
Clarkson    over PRINCETON      4:1    -2       5½
YALE        over St. Lawrence   3:1    -1½      7½
CORNELL     over Dartmouth      4:1    -3       6½
Vermont     over COLGATE        2:1    -½       6

Note: these are compiled from statistically-determined rankings (krach and chodr). I would not recommend using them to open your own book. In fact, if someone offers you Dartmouth and 3 points or RPI over Brown in the Big Red Freakout, I'd say take it. The rest of the week's schedule is off [gneiss.geo.cornell.edu] .

To apply this to another thread, Vermont is statistically a better opponent than Colgate was. The odds for the Colgate win last week were 17:1; tomorrow's game against Vermont is at 10:1.

That's cool. Can you explain the basics of how you came up with the odds so I don't have to learn perl (although I really should learn perl and maybe that'd be motivation)?

The odds are just the KRACH ratings of the favorite divided by the underdog. The routine rounds, except it allows for reasonable X:2 and X:3 values. The KRACH on USCHO doesn't include any information about home ice advantage, so neither does this. Craig Powers's calculation does (home team win percentage is +0.0477 predicted), but is two weeks behind.

So can we place our bets on channel #lynah with paypal?

Ooooohhh! Now that's a damn good idea....

The ECAC favorites go 4-1-1 against the CHODR spread tonight. (Vermont failed to cover; Harvard pushed.)