You Are The Committee

It probably deserves its own thread:

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

Assuming I did this correctly (which is a large leap of faith), Cornell still has a chance to make the tourney if disaster strikes and we lose 2 games in Albany. Losing to Princeton and St. Lawrence leaves us at #14 (behind Air Force, who would get an auto bid anyway), as long as all the other favorites win. With a three-way tie for 15th (Ohio St., Minnesota, and Minn.-Duluth), there wouldn't seem to be much wiggle room with non-ECAC results.

Ironically, this could also be the best-case scenario for the ECAC, as it would put all four finalists in the tournament (Yale at 5, SLU at 9t, and Princeton at 11t).

Actually, losing to Princeton and Yale would hurt us more, somehow, dropping us into a tie for 14th with Ohio State and Duluth. I have to stop playing with this, it's driving me crazy.

Just win, baby.

Like I said on a different thread, we should probably be rooting for all of the top teams in the other conferences to win their games next weekend. If the other conference finals are Denver-NoDak, Michigan-ND and BU-NU things look a lot better for us making it (and secondarily for the other ECAC teams).

One thing is certainL I am rooting for Duluth on Thursday.

There are some scenarios where we don't make it going 1-1 this weekend, based on three teams currently below us in PWR winning Hockey East, CCHA and WCHA Championships. Here's one:

Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern defeats Mass.-Lowell.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Northeastern.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Princeton defeats Cornell.
ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Yale.
ECAC Championship game: St. Lawrence defeats Princeton.
ECAC Consolation game: Cornell defeats Yale.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Bentley.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Alaska.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Notre Dame.
CCHA Championship game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Alaska.
WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats Denver.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: Denver defeats North Dakota.

In this scenario, UMD winds up #6 overall. However, if they lose the championship game, they don't even make the NCAA's.

For the most part though, it looks like we're likely to be in at 1-1 and out at 0-2.

Beat Princeton. Let's Go Red.

Cornell as a #1 seed, playing Miami (who just tanked in the playoffs) in Bridgeport:

# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Mass.-Lowell defeats Northeastern.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Mass.-Lowell.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Princeton.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Yale.
# ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Consolation game: Princeton defeats Yale.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Mercyhurst.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Bentley.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Alaska.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Alaska defeats Northern Michigan.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats Denver.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Consolation game: Denver and North Dakota tie.

There seems to be no way we flip comparisons with BU, Notre Dame, or Michigan, so you have to go after the WCHA. An upset special there and an upset of Northeastern in HE seems to do the trick.

Oh, and that pesky tie...

This scenario also keeps Minnesota out of the tournament, which is always a plus.

There are only 1,769,472 possibilities left. Someone want to run a script to bombard CHN or whelan's site and report min and max for everyone?

(j/k)

If someone wants to bombard us with the 1.7 million page views that it would take -- please feel free.

If we go 0-2 for the weekend we don't deserve to make it. And if we're going to go 1-1 for the weekend we better make darn sure the win is on Friday not Saturday. IMO the winner of the Princeton-Cornell game gets in. Both teams are close in the PWR and it's the rubber game for the season. I know "KRACH is King" and there are a million possibilities still out there but winning Friday I think does it.

Well KRACH has nothing to do with this -- but yes, winning Friday does it. So does winning Saturday.

Germ
If we go 0-2 for the weekend we don't deserve to make it.

This logic annoys me. (Don't take that personally, Germ - I see it a ton and it always does, not just you.) If we go 0-2 for the weekend but the PWR still somehow says we deserve an at-large bid, then we deserve to make it. Even if you want to look at it qualitatively rather than quantitatively, that would still be the case because it would probably mean that one or more other teams who had a chance to punch a ticket with a good weekend also went 0-2 (or, in the case of the WCHA 4-5 game participants, potentially 1-2).

Josh '99
If we go 0-2 for the weekend but the PWR still somehow says we deserve an at-large bid, then we deserve to make it.

Here, here. This is second only to "let the players decide it on the ice" as a meaningless playoff cliche. 20-8-4 + 0-2-0 = 18-10-4 + 2-0-0.

Deserve is what your record says it is.

I understand your points, but I'm also in Germ's camp on this. It's not so much that they don't deserve to be there based on year-long performance, but if a team drops a pair in the tourney, they're probably not playing very good hockey and it's unlikely that they'd be able to reverse that trend against better opponents. I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum, rather than a team that started hot but had the wheels fall off down the stretch.

CowbellGuy
I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum...

On the other hand, most seasons that's Harvard, and they haven't taken advantage of the opportunity in their last eleventy-teen appearances.

Beeeej

CowbellGuy
I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum...

On the other hand, most seasons that's Harvard, and they haven't taken advantage of the opportunity in their last eleventy-teen appearances.

In other words, sports momentum is a purely backwards-looking phenomenon. You have momentum right up until you don't.

CowbellGuy
I understand your points, but I'm also in Germ's camp on this. It's not so much that they don't deserve to be there based on year-long performance, but if a team drops a pair in the tourney, they're probably not playing very good hockey and it's unlikely that they'd be able to reverse that trend against better opponents. I guess I'd rather see the spot go to a team that had a rough start, but got it going late in the season and has some momentum, rather than a team that started hot but had the wheels fall off down the stretch.

Then they should bring back L16 as part of the selection criteria. That'd be fine by me.

Trotsky
20-8-4 + 0-2-0 = 18-10-4 + 2-0-0.

= (3-22-4 + 2-0-0) + 2-0-0

Trotsky

Josh '99
If we go 0-2 for the weekend but the PWR still somehow says we deserve an at-large bid, then we deserve to make it.

Here, here. This is second only to "let the players decide it on the ice" as a meaningless playoff cliche. 20-8-4 + 0-2-0 = 18-10-4 + 2-0-0.

Deserve is what your record says it is.

All depends on how you define "deserve". If you don't agree with the current system for awarding bids then you can easily think a team doersn't deserve to go even if the PWR says they qualify.

For example, I'd be happy with an additional rule that disqualifies a team that loses in the first round of their conference tournament. (But then I'd happy with... lets no rehash that argument.)

Scersk '97
Cornell as a #1 seed, playing Miami (who just tanked in the playoffs) in Bridgeport:

# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Mass.-Lowell defeats Northeastern.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Mass.-Lowell.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Princeton.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Yale.
# ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Consolation game: Princeton defeats Yale.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Mercyhurst.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Bentley.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats RIT.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Alaska.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Alaska defeats Northern Michigan.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats Denver.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Consolation game: Denver and North Dakota tie.

Is there still a rule that a TUC must have a winning percentage of .500 or better, because when I replace Minnesota-Duluth with Minnesota, the 25th team in the Pairwise list becomes

25 [IE] Minnesota State (Mk) 0 .5098

with a line through it.

If a .500 record is required, is TUC the .500+ teams in the RPI top 25 - which could yield a TUC list of less than 25 - or is it the top 25 .500+ teams in the RPI list?

I think the rule is that you're a TUC based on your RPI (regardless of your record), but you can't get an at-large bid if you're under 0.500 win %.

DeltaOne81
I think the rule is that you're a TUC based on your RPI (regardless of your record), but you can't get an at-large bid if you're under 0.500 win %.

Metaphysically, how are you a "team under consideration" if you are explicitly excluded from consideration?

DeltaOne81
I think the rule is that you're a TUC based on your RPI (regardless of your record), but you can't get an at-large bid if you're under 0.500 win %.

I don't think this is completely clear. Whelan and I debated this a few weeks ago. They definitely did change the rules to require a .500 record for an at large bid though.

Josh '99

DeltaOne81
I think the rule is that you're a TUC based on your RPI (regardless of your record), but you can't get an at-large bid if you're under 0.500 win %.

Metaphysically, how are you a "team under consideration" if you are explicitly excluded from consideration?

You're under consideration until the point at which they look at your record?

Josh '99

DeltaOne81
I think the rule is that you're a TUC based on your RPI (regardless of your record), but you can't get an at-large bid if you're under 0.500 win %.

Metaphysically, how are you a "team under consideration" if you are explicitly excluded from consideration?

I guess it's just a nomenclature problem. Kind of like an AQ that doesn't meet the standards for TUC isn't "considered" a TUC, even though it's been by definition not only "considered" but "admitted."

This latter situation, IMHO, is a good thing, eliminating the former situation where the winner of the AHA tournament could influence who else would get in because it automatically became a TUC even though it otherwise wouldn't come close to being "considered" for the tournament. [Apologies for that awful sentence.]

Yes - I think it's to the point now where "TUC" is a misnomer. If they just change it to "Record vs. Top 25 RPI" then it solves the "problem" .... I think, therefore, it makes perfect sense to consider Mankato in that, and it's consistent, as Al said, with NOT considering the AHA tournament winner, for example (although this year, Air Force or RIT will be top 25 if they win it all)

Josh '99

Trotsky
20-8-4 + 0-2-0 = 18-10-4 + 2-0-0.

= (3-22-4 + 2-0-0) + 2-0-0

Nobody ever said an auto bid team was deserving.

adamw
Yes - I think it's to the point now where "TUC" is a misnomer. If they just change it to "Record vs. Top 25 RPI" then it solves the "problem" .... I think, therefore, it makes perfect sense to consider Mankato in that, and it's consistent, as Al said, with NOT considering the AHA tournament winner, for example (although this year, Air Force or RIT will be top 25 if they win it all)

They ought to drop the TUC criterion altogether. It's silly that one team gets beaucoup credit for being 3-1 against the #25 team while another team gets nothing for being 4-0 against #26.

*I* am the Committee??!! Why didn't anyone notify me? Sweet!!

OK. I hereby select the following teams:

1. Cornell
2. American International
3. Bentley
4. UConn
5. U. Illinois-Chicago
6. Kent State
7. Cornell's Club Hockey Team
8. St. Ignatius School for the Blind
9. Maplecrest Senior Rest Home
10. Girl Scout Troop 11, Morristown, Tennessee
11. My friend Bill who only has one leg
12. Brown's Class of 1928

That's it. 12-team tournament this year, and all regionals will be held at the Hartford XL Center. I probably won't be asked to be the committee next year after this, so I can bend the NCAA selection guidelines a little bit.

Wooo!!! Good Luck to all the teams!

RichH
10. Girl Scout Troop 11, Morristown, Tennessee

Ok, since I grew up an hour from there, I'll bite: ???

(and why wouldn't they be chosen as the #11 seed?)

Robb
(and why wouldn't they be chosen as the #11 seed?)

Ohhhh...Here comes the whining!

I went by a complicated, and super-secret mathematical algorithm I call "KRACHER."

I think some people on this board make Trekkies look well-adjusted.

Holiday gift idea for your favorite eLynah friend

RatushnyFan
I think some people on this board make Trekkies look well-adjusted.

Holiday gift idea for your favorite eLynah friend

Hey. It's not like anyone on this forum actually owns a chunk of the old boards from Lynah or anything...

Also, sports nerdery is generally more socially accepted than sci-fi nerdery.

RichH
*I* am the Committee??!! Why didn't anyone notify me? Sweet!!

OK. I hereby select the following teams:

1. Cornell
2. American International
3. Bentley
4. UConn
5. U. Illinois-Chicago
6. Kent State
7. Cornell's Club Hockey Team
8. St. Ignatius School for the Blind
9. Maplecrest Senior Rest Home
10. Girl Scout Troop 11, Morristown, Tennessee
11. My friend Bill who only has one leg
12. Brown's Class of 1928

I don't know how happy Bill will be when he finds out he got a bid. Probably relieved that he's got the blind folks in the first round.

RichH
8. St. Ignatius School for the Blind

I hear most of their players want to go pro as refs

ugarte

RichH
*I* am the Committee??!! Why didn't anyone notify me? Sweet!!

OK. I hereby select the following teams:

1. Cornell
2. American International
3. Bentley
4. UConn
5. U. Illinois-Chicago
6. Kent State
7. Cornell's Club Hockey Team
8. St. Ignatius School for the Blind
9. Maplecrest Senior Rest Home
10. Girl Scout Troop 11, Morristown, Tennessee
11. My friend Bill who only has one leg
12. Brown's Class of 1928

I don't know how happy Bill will be when he finds out he got a bid. Probably relieved that he's got the blind folks in the first round.

No - he'd get Kent State (top 4 byes, 5-12, 6-11, etc in the first round), unless of course Bill is hosting one of the 6-team regionals or has enough double-secret RPI bonus points to justify some seed-swapping... /pedant

ugarte

RichH
*I* am the Committee??!! Why didn't anyone notify me? Sweet!!

OK. I hereby select the following teams:

1. Cornell
2. American International
3. Bentley
4. UConn
5. U. Illinois-Chicago
6. Kent State
7. Cornell's Club Hockey Team
8. St. Ignatius School for the Blind
9. Maplecrest Senior Rest Home
10. Girl Scout Troop 11, Morristown, Tennessee
11. My friend Bill who only has one leg
12. Brown's Class of 1928

I don't know how happy Bill will be when he finds out he got a bid. Probably relieved that he's got the blind folks in the first round.

Do the top 4 teams get a bye? If so, "Bill" has to dodge Kent State, The Seniors and the Blind battle it out for the right to face Cornell (unless they reseed after round 1).

Will the concession stands be selling Girl Scout Cookies, courtesy of Troop 11 (hey it is going to take a few tanks of gas to get from TN to CT)?

RichH
Hey. It's not like anyone on this forum actually owns a chunk of the old boards from Lynah or anything...

And a piece of one of the bench---err, I mean, who?

Has anyone found a way where UMass-Lowell makes the tournament without winning Hockey East?

Chris 02
Has anyone found a way where UMass-Lowell makes the tournament without winning Hockey East?

Has anyone tried?

Jim Hyla

Chris 02
Has anyone found a way where UMass-Lowell makes the tournament without winning Hockey East?

Has anyone tried?

Just responding to Rita's post on the other thread of "It's quiet".

I tried, but was not successful.

I tried a YATC, with every lower seed beating the higher ranked seed. We end up 14th in the PWR, but miss the tournament because NMU gets the CCHA autobid. If I let NMU lose the CCHA championship game to Alaska, we finish 12th.

I also tried the same approach, but instead have us win out (beating SLU in the championship). We finish 5th in the PWR. That same result holds regardless of what happens in the CCHA. Various things in Hockey East move us to a tie for 5th, but for the most part we're indifferent to the HE results, too. If, however, we beat Yale instead of SLU, we finish 6th behind Yale in 5th.

And there's something about North Dakota winning that is bad for us. I haven't figured out what it is yet. But UND winning even one game drops us several positions. Western bias.

Duluth leads Minnesota 1-0 after 1 in the WCHA play-in game

A little more YATC: If we lose both games this weekend there are plenty of ways we still make the tournament. All of them involve North Dakota winning and Duluth not winning another game. Some of them put us in a 3 way tie with Minny and Duluth for the last two spots. That could be scary. Other than that, upsets by the 3 and 4 seeds are generally bad for us.

Just win.

So far I've run 288 of the remaining 864 possibilities on CHN (33%). That's every case with Air Force winning the AHA title, except those with a tie in the CCHA consolation (just because, no good reason). Some observations:

1) As expected, we have almost certainly clinched a bid. If we beat Yale we'll probably be a #2. If we lose we're probably a #3.

- 1a) We can still be a #3 if UML and NoDak win.

2) Yale seems locked into the 5 slot and so would be a #2 seed.

3) In almost every case I've run the loser of the ECAC consy staying home and the winner gettign a bid. Princeton gets the bid with a tie. However, if Mich, NMU and UMD win and NoDak ties Wisc, SLU could lose out to Minnesota (see #6).

4) The top 4 (BU, ND, DU, Mich) seem pretty locked in. Michigan and Denver can switch places if Michigan wins and Denver loses.

5) Minnesota can still sneak into the tournament. So far it looks like they need NMU and BU to win tomorrow to give them a chance.

6) Miami has appears to be backing into the tournament even after losing in the CCHA quarterfinals. They can even get a #3 seed by finishing 12th.

7) Likewise, OSU gets in most of the time if Lowell doesn't beat BU.

----

Just completed 24 cases with Mercyhurst winning, which has more effect than I had guessed. Biggest difference is that Mercyhurst helps Minnesota get in, often at the expense of SLU.

KeithK
1) As expected, we have almost certainly clinched a bid.

Have you found a nightmare scenario or are you saying "almost" because you haven't run all of the scenarios?

 

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I could not find a nightmare scenario of Cornell getting left out. The lowest I could get Cornell was #11 with all the upsets. I did not go nuts, though

ugarte

KeithK
1) As expected, we have almost certainly clinched a bid.

Have you found a nightmare scenario or are you saying "almost" because you haven't run all of the scenarios?

No nightmare scenarios. I'm quite confidant that we are a lock now. But I haven't run all of the scenarios so I figured I'd put that disclaimer in.

I think I stopped at 313 out of 864. After four hours of clicking I had had enough. (Needed something to do to keep me awake.)

Cornell is 12th if Yale and Princeton win, UML upsets BU, WI beats NoDak, MNDuluth beats DU and Mercyhurst wins.

But it's meaningless in any case. Cornell is in no matter what and there are no scenarios I've found for Cornell to logically stay east.

From the standpoint of NCAAs tonight's game is meaningless unless you're fretting about being in the Notre Dame or Denver bracket.

There is one chance to play in the BU bracket: we win, NoDak wins and DU wins. Inthat case even though we finish 7th the committee may flip us to the BU bracket in 8th to avoid a first round (8 v 9) matchup between Vermont and Northeastern.

I know they seed in bands, but they tend to respect traditional seedings (e.g., 1-8-9-16) if there's no reason not to.

We can all take solace in the fact that if Princeton wins tonight, both Miami and Ohio State wind up in the 4-band. Since those 2 can't play Notre Dame or Michigan, that means that BU, the probable #1 seed who would have gotten to play Bemidji, gets to play Ohio State or Miami. Sounds like us back in '03.

KeithK
So far I've run 288 of the remaining 864 possibilities on CHN (33%). That's every case with Air Force winning the AHA title, except those with a tie in the CCHA consolation (just because, no good reason). Some observations:

1) As expected, we have almost certainly clinched a bid. If we beat Yale we'll probably be a #2. If we lose we're probably a #3.

- 1a) We can still be a #3 if UML and NoDak win.

2) Yale seems locked into the 5 slot and so would be a #2 seed.

3) In almost every case I've run the loser of the ECAC consy staying home and the winner gettign a bid. Princeton gets the bid with a tie. However, if Mich, NMU and UMD win and NoDak ties Wisc, SLU could lose out to Minnesota (see #6).

4) The top 4 (BU, ND, DU, Mich) seem pretty locked in. Michigan and Denver can switch places if Michigan wins and Denver loses.

5) Minnesota can still sneak into the tournament. So far it looks like they need NMU and BU to win tomorrow to give them a chance.

6) Miami has appears to be backing into the tournament even after losing in the CCHA quarterfinals. They can even get a #3 seed by finishing 12th.

7) Likewise, OSU gets in most of the time if Lowell doesn't beat BU.

----

Just completed 24 cases with Mercyhurst winning, which has more effect than I had guessed. Biggest difference is that Mercyhurst helps Minnesota get in, often at the expense of SLU.

Keith - I cannot find any scenarios where Mercyhurst wins, and it manages to keep SLU out even with SLU winning. Can you help me out here. Even in scenario No. 3 above - I don't see it.

7. There are numerous wacky scenarios involving Ohio State. It comes down to their comparison with Air Force, by miniscule RPI percentage points either way, based upon various other games that you'd otherwise think would have no effect. Get enough RPI pts to win the AFA comparison, and OSU gets in - don't win that comparison - and they are out.

I have a scenario where Wisconsin wins the consy - and loses out on a bid by .0003 RPI to Ohio State.

yup you are correct - I see Cornell 12th there too with those outcomes now thanks. So that seems to be the lowest

If Cornell wins tonight, we are definitely going west right? Yale is locked into Bridgeport as host.

Can anyone find a Cornell-winning scenario where we might get to stay out here on the east coast?

Oat
If Cornell wins tonight, we are definitely going west right? Yale is locked into Bridgeport as host.

Can anyone find a Cornell-winning scenario where we might get to stay out here on the east coast?

It's basically as Ken70 suggested above. If Cornell ends up a #2 seed, they will not go to Bridgeport, and so the ranking must match them with UNH or suggest that the committee adjust the brackets in order to avoid an all HE first-round game.

If we lose tonight and all the favorites win, we end up a 3 seed, with Duluth, Vermont and the other ECAC school. UHN ends up in the 2-band. In that case, the committee does have the option of putting us in Manchester. We'd be the closest to a 8-9 pairing with UHN. But they could also conclude that attendance in Manchester is no problem and send us to Grand Rapids to boost attendance at that bracket.

Pretty much all the other scenarios I've found with us losing tonight, have UNH in the three band with us and another ECAC school. In that case, we're going west.

It gets more complicated if we win.

If all the favorites win except us, God only knows what the committee will do. I suspect that we'll have a chance at playing in Manchester. They need to move NU somewhere to avoid the match-up with UVM and UHN. If they keep NoDak in Minneapolis for attendance, then we go to Manchester and NU goes to Grand Rapids. However, they do have the option of sending us out west and NoDak to Manchester. Not sure why they'd do it, but the option is there.

If NoDak loses instead, UVM and NU are the other two 2 seeds, and we go to Manchester.

Beyond that, it's way too complicated if other upsets start happening. All I can see is we don't want all upsets. That lets Minnesota back in. We don't want that.

Didn't Manchester sell out in December when they had the regionals there in 07 or 06?

Note... it's pretty well established that the committee has not given a hoot about attendance since the 16-team tournament started in 2003. This is still bandied about every year by the old-timers (like me) who think that this is still the case ... but it's been clear every year since 2003 that the only thing the committee cares about is keeping the purity of 1-16-8-9, 2-15-7-10, etc... if possible, obviously, after adjusting for other factors.

There is no instance that I know of where attendance was a factor - except when Air Force was swapped with the CHA champ in order to keep them in Colorado Springs two years ago. But they have been more for travel concerns than anything.

i.e. all talk of how the "committee may choose to keep team 'x' here because of attendance" is completely meaningless.

Wasn't there a fleeting mention of less lengthy travel for teams during 2007 or 2008? I don't read Jason's committee articles carefully so I don't know if he has mentioned it this year.

adamw
Keith - I cannot find any scenarios where Mercyhurst wins, and it manages to keep SLU out even with SLU winning. Can you help me out here. Even in scenario No. 3 above - I don't see it.

I had a whole spreadsheet showing all of the combinations that I ran. I still have it, but it's at work, where I was running them. So I can check it tonight at midnight Pacific after it doesn't matter anymore.

t's entirely possible I mistyped or misread stuff. I was up all night.

Next year someone should code up a program that runs through all the possible outcomes, kind of like what fivethirtyeight.com had for the elections.

St. Lawrence and Minnesota are out. Lowell is in control of its destiny: win and they get the autobid, lose and Ohio State gets the last at large slot.

Brackets, at least how I see them, assuming Duluth, Notre Dame, and BU go on to win:

NE   1 BU
     8 North Dakota
    10 UNH
    15 Ohio State

MW   2 Notre Dame
     7 Minnesota-Duluth
    11 Cornell
    16 Bemidji State

W    3 Denver
     6 Northeastern
    12 Princeton
    13 Miami

E    4 Michigan
     5 Yale
     9 Vermont
    14 Air Force

Ah, the only thing that will get Red Berenson to go East: the NCAA.

Shuffling is required for two inter-conference #1-#4 games, and kudos to Air Force for not being one of the two bottom seeds. Quite the reward.

The "logjam" in the #2/#3 seeds looks to work out logically, if not happily. Hosts at home really screwed everybody (including us) this year.

Can't be unhappy with our bracket. Duluth is on fire, but they're probably beatable. As for Notre Dame, we can do to them what Jeff Jackson's Lake St. teams did: clutch and grab. Not really a "speed team" in the bunch.

The group of death? No question its the east regional. Yale is a dangerous team, and so is Air Force. Vermont will be champing at the bit after their (typical) quarterfinal exit.

Should be interesting: I almost wish that I weren't planning to be en México and could hit Grand Rapids. It's grrrrrreat! Or is that Battle Creek...

Assuming UMD holds its lead:
1 [AQ] Boston University
2 [AQ] Notre Dame
3 Denver
4 Michigan
5 [AQ] Yale
6t Northeastern
6t [AQ] Minnesota-Duluth
8 North Dakota
9 Vermont
10 New Hampshire
11 Cornell
12 Princeton
13 Miami
14 [AQ] Air Force
15t Ohio State

Likely Brackets:
Manchester: BU, No. Dak., UNH, OSU
Grand Rapids: Notre Dame, UMD, Cornell, Bemidji
Minn: Denver, NE, Princeton, Miami
Bridgeport: Michigan, Yale, Vermont, AF

Note: with Yale and UNH hosting regionals, Vt. is the only 3 seed that can play Yale to avoid intra-conference matchups, and the other 3 3 seeds effectively move up one slot each. Question: Would the committee flip NE and UMD to put UMD in Minneapolis?

EDIT: Nevermind, I can't count and got that backwards. You guys are right and we probably go to Grand Rapids and play UMD.

I obviously don't type as fast as Scersk, but we apparently think alike. Let's see if the committee has something different in mind. With UNH a 3 and Yale a 2, it looks like they could only put us in Grand Rapids or Minneapolis.

Jacob '06
I feel like they have to give the higher seeded Northeastern the lower seeded Cornell however they do it. That means we play northeastern in either grand rapids or minneapolis

That's the big question. Do they do a swap or just slide everyone up to accommodate the 5/9 matchup.

5/9
6/12 NU/PU
7/11 UMD/CU
8/10 UNH/ND

or

5/9
6/11 NU/CU
7/10 UMD/UNH
8/12 ND/PU

My guess is that every 2 seed gets a bonus based on the YU/UVM lock. It would be unfair to just flip PU and UVM.

I'll sign up right now for ND/UMD/CU/BSU in grand rapids. That's about as good a draw as Cornell can hope for. I have a feeling it'll be CU/UMD @ Minnesota with DU for some reason with PU/NU in Michigan and ND's bracket. The committee has a good bit of wiggle room given the way the hosts are mucking things up in the middle.

marty
Wasn't there a fleeting mention of less lengthy travel for teams during 2007 or 2008? I don't read Jason's committee articles carefully so I don't know if he has mentioned it this year.

No, it was discussed as a possibility of this year, but was put on hold in February.

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