The Rest of the ECAC Reg Season

The final weekend is posted further down this thread.

Well, am I bummed? Yes
Upset? Yes
Pessimistic? No, at least not for the ECAC.
We could have (should have?) won the last 3 games against the number 2,4, & 6 team. Princeton was fatigue at the end, Dartmouth was uncharacteristic defensive lapses and bad luck, and Harvard was completely outplayed, except for PK. We have shown we can beat these teams. The rest of the schedule is favorable, but we have to say Yale is the best for the reg season.

Here's the rest of the season, with "power rankings" (SRS) for each team's remaining schedule. I gave 1 point for facing the first place team, 2 for second, etc..,Q & Hvd got 6.5 each. Then add them to get SRS. With that stat we have the easiest schedule. Compared to Princeton, our differences are we have RPI & Union and they have Dartmouth & Harvard.

         Pts SRS 
1  Yale  29  22.5 @Q,   @P,   Us,    gate
2  Prin  24  23.5 Bwn,  Yale, @Dmth, @Hvd
3  Us    23  31   RPI,  Unn,  @Yale, @Bwn
4  Dmth  22  22.5 @Clk, @SLU, Prin,  Q
5  SLU   19  28.5 Hvd,  Dmth, @Unn,  @RPI
6  Q     18  23.5 Yale, Bwn,  @Hvd,  @Dmth
   Hvd   18  22.5 @SLU, @Clk, Q,     Prin
8  Unn   17  28   @gate,@Us,  SLU,   Clk
9  Clk   15  28.5 Dmth, Hvd,  @RPI,  @Unn
10 RPI   13  28   @Us,  @gate,Clk,   SLU
11 gate  11  31   Unn,  RPI,  Bwn,   Yale
12 Brwn   7  22.5 @Prin,@Q,   gate,  Us

So we have the easiest remaining schedule. We are in good position against Prin, Dmth, Q, & Hvd; and OK against SLU. Certainly good position for fourth and OK for third or second. We need to tighten our D, keep our offensive pressure and on to playoffs.

It's a little concerning to see how opponents have played Cornell the second time around. Consider:

PU- @W, L
QU- @T, W
HU- W, @L
DC- W, @L
SLU- W, @L
CCT- W, @T
CG- @W, T, T

RPI- @W, ?
UC- @W, ?
YU- L, @?
BU- W, @?

So far the only result that has been matched or exceeded the second time through has been vs. QU. First time through the team went 9-1-1. Second time through it's 1-4-2. Of course some of that could be that the team has underperformed somewhat on the road (4-3-2 vs. 6-2-1) and some could be injuries. But the trend is not the best to say the least.

Could have been worse, since they stole a point in the 'Gate home game. But then again, they could very easily have just gone 3-0 against Princeton, Dartmouth and Harvard. It isn't as if they're getting blown out, or even out-played. As long as they don't panic, I think they will turn it around.

My feeling after the UMass game and Capital District trip was that the team wasn't the defensive force of 03 05 and 06. We were good but not great and there was a need to step up the offense - for the team to gel a bit more - before we could look beyond Albany. Our offense had to improve to make the goals for vs. goals against allow wins.

With the injuries, it didn't happen. Will it yet?

I think the offense was really moving during the Dartmouth game. I was very impressed with the speed and the breakout. I think breaking up Nash and Greening worked in that regard. Rather than having a great line with a big drop off after that, both of the first two lines skated and moved the puck well. The down side of this, of course, is that it also left us open to some good opportunities going back the other way.

As a side note, I have been really impressed with Barlow in the couple of games I have seen live. The Union game goes without saying, and it just seemed like he wanted the puck more and hustled to get it more than just about any other player on the ice at Dartmouth.

Fun. Plug in your game predictions and the final standings come out. If I set us up to win out, and Princeton doesn't, we finish second, and if the higher team wins in the first round we get Union. If Princeton wins out we wind up third, and there's all kinds of possibilities.

Try it here: "What If" Calculator

You can also set it up for other conferences.

TBRW has one that actually counts tiebreakers, which the siouxsports one doesn't. You post the actual scores of the games, not the winners, and it does all the tiebreaks for you very cleanly and explicitly.

Great!! Tell me the scores of the rest of the games!

TimV
Plug in your game predictions and the final standings come out. If I set us up to win out, and Princeton doesn't, we finish second, ... If Princeton wins out we wind up third,...

I figured that out without a fancy program!

daredevilcu
TBRW has one that actually counts tiebreakers, which the siouxsports one doesn't. You post the actual scores of the games, not the winners, and it does all the tiebreaks for you very cleanly and explicitly.

ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script

Heh! Right...

Interesting statistics similar to the ECAC PPS and the TBRW tools posted on this site...looks like they don't consider ties in their analysis.

[www.playoffstatus.com]

And it's got data for other "leagues" and sports also.

Just. Win. Bâby.

Trotsky
Just. Win. Bâby.

Is Schafer bringing him back to beat up on Erik Burgdoerfer?

ursusminor

Trotsky
Just. Win. Bâby.

Is Schafer bringing him back to beat up on Erik Burgdoerfer?

Only iof this guy is unavailable.

Trotsky

ursusminor

Trotsky
Just. Win. Bâby.

Is Schafer bringing him back to beat up on Erik Burgdoerfer?

Only iof this guy is unavailable.

Just remember that Erik's father taught him all he knows [www.rpiathletics.com]. (See under Personal.)

So here is next weekend. A fast try on John's ECAC Poss. Script and if we beat Yale, the only way to get first is for 'gate to also beat them or if they tie, we need SLU to get fourth over Dartmouth as Yale lost and tied SLU but beat Dartmouth twice. Of course Princeton needs to lose a game as well.

         Pts SRS 
1  Yale  30  14   Us,    gate
2  Prin  28  10.5 @Dmth, @Hvd
3  Us    27  13   @Yale, @Bwn
4  Dmth  22  9    Prin,  Q
   SLU   22  18.5 @Unn,  @RPI
6  Hvd   20  9    Q,     Prin
7  Q     19  10.5 @Hvd,  @Dmth
8  Unn   18  13   SLU,   Clk
   Clk   18  18.5 @RPI,  @Unn
11 gate  14  13   Bwn,   Yale
10 RPI   13  13   Clk,   SLU
12 Brwn   9  14   gate,  Us

You know, someone could have fun with with the head-to-head predicted winning percentages here and the probability of various final standings. Of course, it wouldn't quite work because the model doesn't include ties...

Jim Hyla
A fast try on John's ECAC Poss. Script and if we beat Yale, the only way to get first is for 'gate to also beat them or if they tie, we need SLU to get fourth over Dartmouth as Yale lost and tied SLU but beat Dartmouth twice. Of course Princeton needs to lose a game as well.

And we can't have Harvard get fourth; Yale wins the tiebreaker with us with either Dartmouth or Harvard in fourth. Go SLU.

Chalk this up as another ridiculous ECAC season. The only thing completely predictable was Brown - they're guaranteed to finish last now.

daredevilcu
Chalk this up as another ridiculous ECAC season. The only thing completely predictable was Brown - they're guaranteed to finish last now.

So do you dislike parity or uncertainty?

Not at all! I'm actually a little disappointed that Brown is already completely out of the hunt for any spot, and that 1-3 is cemented, just orders aren't determined.

Jim Hyla
And we can't have Harvard get fourth...

It's remarkable that a team that went two months without a win and almost a year without a road win could be in line for a bye.

Chris '03

Jim Hyla
And we can't have Harvard get fourth...

It's remarkable that a team that went two months without a win and almost a year without a road win could be in line for a bye.

They really should play for ties this next weekend. 7-7-8 would be a sweet record. Sweet!

"We'll tie anybody, anywhere!"

Or perhaps they could go for Boeing sponsorship.

Scersk '97

Chris '03

Jim Hyla
And we can't have Harvard get fourth...

It's remarkable that a team that went two months without a win and almost a year without a road win could be in line for a bye.

They really should play for ties this next weekend. 7-7-8 would be a sweet record. Sweet!

"We'll tie anybody, anywhere!"

Or perhaps they could go for Boeing sponsorship.

I say cancel one game and shoot for the symmetric 7-7-7.

Anyone know how the SLU Dartmouth tiebreak for 4th works? If they end up tied.

SLU would win a two way tiebreaker based on record against Top 4. The Saints have 7 points against Yale, Princeton and Cornell while the Big Green have no more than 4 (if they beat Princeton Friday). If Harvard or Q leapfrogged them SLU would still win the tiebreak (obviously not for 4th anymore though).

A quick inspection of Whelan's Head to Head points table doesn't show any scenarios where a multi team tie would leave Dartmouth ahead of SLU. But I haven't tried running the scenarios.

Dafatone
Anyone know how the SLU Dartmouth tiebreak for 4th works? If they end up tied.

They split their season series, so it would go to the second tiebreaker, league wins. Assuming they both swept, Dartmouth would win that one, 12-11.

Top 4 is the third tiebreaker. The ECAC added league wins as the second tiebreaker last season.

Forgot -- if St. Lawrence goes 1-1 on the weekend and Dartmouth ties twice, then they'd both have 11 league wins and the Top 4 tiebreaker, which would favor St. Lawrence, would come into play.

My bad, I missed that change. (Really stupid change IMO.)

Agreed, although it does have the virtue (?) of making a lot of the potential ties way easier to resolve.

Give My Regards

Dafatone
Anyone know how the SLU Dartmouth tiebreak for 4th works? If they end up tied.

They split their season series, so it would go to the second tiebreaker, league wins. Assuming they both swept, Dartmouth would win that one, 12-11.

Top 4 is the third tiebreaker. The ECAC added league wins as the second tiebreaker last season.

I thought the "infinite loop" scenario from 2007 was pretty cool.

KeithK
My bad, I missed that change. (Really stupid change IMO.)

Right. Is a tie worth only .99 points? Who gets the other .02?

Al DeFlorio

KeithK
My bad, I missed that change. (Really stupid change IMO.)

Right. Is a tie worth only .99 points? Who gets the other .02?

Richard Pryor.

Al DeFlorio

KeithK
My bad, I missed that change. (Really stupid change IMO.)

Right. Is a tie worth only .99 points? Who gets the other .02?

It's part of the Global War on Ties (GWOT). It's supposed to make teams play more aggressively and risk losing in order to get the win, because I know if I'm at point and I pinch in too much and my man blows past me for an overtime breakaway game winner, in the locker room coach will say, "it's okay, son, I know you were just trying to get us that fifth-tier tie-breaker."

Cornell (27 pts.) could still take second in the ECAC, despite the loss to Yale.

Brown has been playing better lately, but I think it's very likely the Big Red will beat them tomorrow.

Princeton (28 pts.) will face Harvard (they are 0-7-5 away and 8-3-1 at home).

My answer is probably in this thread somewhere, but if Cornell and Princeton tie for second, what are the tiebreakers and who will get second?

ryeguy
My answer is probably in this thread somewhere, but if Cornell and Princeton tie for second, what are the tiebreakers and who will get second?

They tied for head-to-head. It should be record vs top 4.
Edit:New this year is the total wins category. So we lose that no matter what.

lynah80
Cornell (27 pts.) could still take second in the ECAC, despite the loss to Yale.

Brown has been playing better lately, but I think it's very likely the Big Red will beat them tomorrow.

Princeton (28 pts.) will face Harvard (they are 0-7-5 away and 8-3-1 at home).

And I'd sure rather be second than third.

lynah80

Princeton (28 pts.) will face Harvard (they are 0-7-5 away and 8-3-1 at home).

Harvard also has this pesky tendency not to lose games in February not played at the Garden, especially at home. February 27, 2004 marks the last time H dropped a home conference game in February (6-4 to Vermont). They have a pretty impressive overall conference record in February too lately.

Someone else please start the game thread tonight, as I have been sucking lately.