TSN Ranks Riley Nash #33 for the upcoming draft

Bob McKenzie (hockey commentator and father of SLU's Mike McKenzie) put together a 1-60 ranking of draft prospects. He echoes the sentiment that a lot of draft watchers have, which is that Riley is unlikely to be a top-line or even top-two line player, but is a very safe bet to play in the NHL.

[www.tsn.ca]

Their table also includes numeric rankings from other publications:

TSN : 33
Central Scount Bureau: 64 (North American List)
Intl Scouting Service: 35
Red Line Report : 24
The Hockey News : 94

mckeens puts him at #46.

USA Today says Riley will go at #17 to my NY Rangers

Much higher than any other prediction I have seen.

Some more love from Kyle Woodllief of USA Today and the Red Line Report in a Q & A:

Vancouver, BC: What are your thoughts on some of the "other" BCHL forwards, like Riley Nash and Casey Pierro-Zabotel?

Kyle Woodlief: At Red Line, our staff loves Riley Nash, and I think he could go off the board possibly as high as #15 overall. A really well schooled, all-around player who can play it any way you want. Pierro-Zabotel is big and has a real good touch around the net and fine instincts at the offensive end of the rink. He has some other areas to work on, but with those tools I'd see him going in the 2nd round

If he goes that high the pressure for him to play major junior instead of cornell will be huge.

DILLIGAF
If he goes that high the pressure for him to play major junior instead of cornell will be huge.

Not necessarily - I think that largely depends on the team that drafts him, how far down the depth chart he is, what they want him to work on, and whether or not they offer him a contract of some kind to jump ship - but if he goes that high, plays well, and stays healthy, it's all but guaranteed that he won't be at Cornell for more than 2 years. Pokulok and LeNeveu were both drafted pretty high and they both left early to go straight into the AHL without any public discussion of major junior as an intermediate possibility. Then again, I don't think they were drafted until *after* they came to Cornell, but my memory is a bit fuzzy on these things.

I think you are right, it will depend somewhat on who drafts him and somewhat on who his "family advisor" is. Drafted that high, he stands to get a decent Major Junior contract too, which could sway him immediately.

Also, I think you are right, if he does make it to Cornell, it will not be a full 4 years. It will be a one and done or 2 and out for him.

The top programs deal with that every year. You count yourself lucky for what time you get with the very best players. See Minnesota, Maine, North Dakota, etc. The all recruit with the idea of losing freshmen and sophs.

It is the price of success.

DILLIGAF
Also, I think you are right, if he does make it to Cornell, it will not be a full 4 years. It will be a one and done or 2 and out for him.

The top programs deal with that every year. You count yourself lucky for what time you get with the very best players. See Minnesota, Maine, North Dakota, etc. The all recruit with the idea of losing freshmen and sophs.

It is the price of success.

Cornell's had its share of players bolting early to the pros, but it will never see a rate of this comparable to the schools you mentioned. Even if it matched those schools' rate of success, they still have one large advantage over Cornell in the ability to offer scholarships. That is not diminished when a player leaves early (he still got to play for free). Cornell's largest recruiting advantage over those schools is the value of the degree, and this is signficantly diminished when one leaves after a season or two.


Players leaving early might happen more than it used to, but it'll never be that common. Those players are just less likely to come to Ithaca in the first place.

BTW, the first round of the NHL draft is Friday 6/22 at 7 pm and is being televised on Versus, TSN and the NHL Network.

Is the NHL Network new? Is it available in the US or is it a Canadien thing? I'm just curious since I haven't seen it on my Direct TV programming guide.

Rita

Is the NHL Network new? Is it available in the US or is it a Canadien thing? I'm just curious since I haven't seen it on my Direct TV programming guide.

The NHL Network has been around for about six years (that's a guess). As far as I know, it's only been available in Canada. We need to start campaigning to get it included in either the Directv SportsPak or as part of the CenterIce package.

Tom Lento

DILLIGAF
If he goes that high the pressure for him to play major junior instead of cornell will be huge.

Not necessarily - I think that largely depends on the team that drafts him, how far down the depth chart he is, what they want him to work on, and whether or not they offer him a contract of some kind to jump ship - but if he goes that high, plays well, and stays healthy, it's all but guaranteed that he won't be at Cornell for more than 2 years. Pokulok and LeNeveu were both drafted pretty high and they both left early to go straight into the AHL without any public discussion of major junior as an intermediate possibility. Then again, I don't think they were drafted until *after* they came to Cornell, but my memory is a bit fuzzy on these things.

I have to figure that the opportunity to keep playing with Brendon will continue to be important to Riley - it was (presumably) part of why he decided to come play at Cornell instead of UND or somewhere else, and it's a factor that wasn't present in the decisions of guys like Lenny and Sasha to leave early.

I remember reading that Comcast was bringing the NHL Network to the US, but apparently that was a lie.

Well, off to the draft....heading downtown to see what the action is like. I'll report if anything interesting goes down on the floor..

DILLIGAF
If he goes that high the pressure for him to play major junior instead of cornell will be huge.

Not nessisarily, it all comes down to what the team that draft's him thinks of the Cornell program. Toews played two years and so will Okposo, and both are huge prospects (drafted #3 and #6 overall last year.)

What is so disturbing about the recent two defections is that neither Milo or Romano was offered a pro contract, but instead left to join teams on the junior level. It's hard to blame a kid when he inks a deal with an NHL team, but when they leave to join other youth teams it's a vote of no confidence in the Cornell program. Lets hope that Milo and Romano where isolated incidents and not indicative of a greater trend.

Nobody?

OK, I'll do it. Riley Nash to Edmonton at #21 (traded up from #30 to get him). Lowe says they had him in their top 13.

Edmonton just traded up to take Riley 21st

Impressive that Edmonton traded up for Riley. I'm also heartened that Lowe said his team's picks (3 out of the top 21) were geared toward the future.

Also rather interesting how much divergence there was among the various scouting organizations regarding many of the players, including Riley. Just goes to show how imperfect a science all this is.

I'll be safety-Trotsky tonight...

Riley becomes the 2nd first-round draftee in CU history and the 4th highest overall pick.

[www.tbrw.info]

Safety Trotsky...

For those who might be curious what the Oilers tend to do with college players they draft...

Last year they drafted defenseman Cody Wild, who plays for Providence, in the 5th round. He returned for his sophomore year last season, and appears to be staying at PC again this coming season.

In 2005 they drafted four college players. In the first round (#25 overall) the Oilers took Andrew Cogliano, a center who was headed to Michigan. He played two seasons there so far (28 points as a freshman, 50 as a sophomore) and signed a pro contract in May. In the second round they took Taylor Chorney, a defenseman who was headed to UND. Chorney had 18 points as a freshman, 31 as a sophomore, and seems to be going back for another year. In the fourth round was Chris Vande Velde, a center who played another year in junior after being drafted and started at UND this year. He had just 9 points as a freshman and will return to the Sioux. Finally, in the seventh round they drafted winger Matthew Glasser, who also played another year in juniors and then enrolled at Denver. Glasser only played 12 games as a freshman, had no points, and presumably doesn't have the Oil beating down his door quite yet.

The Oilers picked one college player in 2004, incoming Denver wing Geoff Paukovich. He's a big guy, lots of penalty minutes and not too many points type, and will be an assistant captain as a senior for the Pios this coming season.

Both of the college players the Oilers drafted in 2003 (Providence wing Colin McDonald in the second round and Michigan defenseman David Rohlfs in the fifth) stayed in college all four years.

There were a decent number of collegians drafted by Edmonton in 2002. In the second round they picked physical defenseman Matt Greene, who was headed to UND. Greene had 337 PIM in 3 seasons with the Sioux before signing a contract; he played 78 games for the Oilers this past season. In the next round was wing Brock Radunske, who had just finished his freshman year at Michigan State. Radunske played two more years in East Lansing before signing; he's bounced back and forth between the A and the ECHL since then. Then in the fifth round they picked goalie Glenn Fisher, who played another season in juniors before enrolling at Denver. He stayed all four years, mainly as a platoon goalie, and is projected to play in the ECHL next year. In the seventh round the Oil picked Patrick Murphy, who was headed to Northern Michigan. He stayed for all four years, never putting up more than 8 points in a season, and played a few games in the CHL this past season. Finally, in the (now non-existent) eighth round, they picked center Dwight Helminen, who had just finished his freshman year at Michigan. He stayed at Michigan for another two years, but since his rights were dealt to the Rangers in the meantime, it's not really relevant.

So in total that's 13 college players in the last five drafts. Of the players who are old enough to have been in college for all four years, four out of seven did so; the other three stayed for three years. Cogliano (a first-round pick who put up good numbers) was the only one to leave after two years.

I don't feel like looking back any further, but if anyone is curious, here's their draft history on HockeyDB. A preview of their 2001 draft: the craziness of Eddie Caron.

First of all, I'm horrified to see the asterisk next to Brendon Nash's name, but I'm hoping against hope that it's just a USCHO mistake:

[www.uscho.com]


[www.tsn.ca]
[q]"I was mostly Canucks growing up but the Oilers are a good fit," said Nash.

Nash will play college hockey at Cornell in the autumn and has some areas he wants to improve in his game.

"I got to get a better stride," he said. "I'm not quick enough. And I need a better shot, all NHL players have great shots."[/q]

[www.sbrforum.com]
[q]"I thought maybe I might go sometime in the middle of the second round, but when I saw them trade up, I had a good feeling," Nash said. "It feels great and I am looking forward to joining the Edmonton Oilers. I am planning on taking it year by year, and sometime soon I will hopefully be able to make an impact in the NHL."[/q]


[www.insidecollegehockey.com]
[q]The Big Red set their sights on championships every year. Nash is excited about the challenge.

"I think that's a good thing, having to go out there and perform every night is something I look forward to and having the pressure put on me, I really don't mind that at all. I think it'll make me get better and better each practice and each game. Hopefully we can bring a championship back there," Nash said.[/q]

[www.theglobeandmail.com]
[q]Duhatschek: What are the Oilers thinking?[/q]

[sports.espn.go.com]
[q]21. Riley Nash, C, Oilers: Nash is a bit of a long-term project, like Turris. He needs to put in a couple years against better competition after dominating the British Columbia Hockey League. Edmonton has the luxury of waiting on a player like Nash because of their strong system. Nash is not someone fantasy owners have to worry about for a long time.[/q]

evilnaturedrobot
[What is so disturbing about the recent two defections is that neither Milo or Romano was offered a pro contract, but instead left to join teams on the junior level. It's hard to blame a kid when he inks a deal with an NHL team, but when they leave to join other youth teams it's a vote of no confidence in the Cornell program.

Signing with a OHL team is hardly "joining a youth team". The CHL is the premier development league for the NHL. Those teams run budgets much larger than Cornell does and the players are paid. It is professional hockey.

But I do agree with you that you can consider it a vote of no confidence in Cornell.

Nice breakdown of that. That edmonton has kept their top prospects in college as much as they have surprises me. I would have expected much more of a CHL influence.

That being said, I do think you will see a lot of pressure for Nash to sign with a whl team and stay in western canada and develop in the Major Junior system.

Player development at top programs in the WCHA is much different than at cornell. You just don't see the same level of player development which is why players here leave early.

DILLIGAF
That being said, I do think you will see a lot of pressure for Nash to sign with a whl team and stay in western canada and develop in the Major Junior system.

That could be the case, but I like hearing this...

Oilers Vice President of Hockey Operations Kevin Prendergast: "He's got great hockey sense ... and he shows up to play every night. He's all over the ice. He's going to a good hockey school. He's a kid, in our estimation, who will play for sure and he's got all the skills to develop into a solid NHL player."
[insidecollegehockey.com]

I wonder how Ari feels about Nash going to Edmonton.

The Oilers moved up, dealing their 30th and 36th selections, to grab Nash, a rangy centre who was the BCHL's rookie of the year after collecting 83 points in 55 games. He's off to Cornell university, but expects to be on the professional tracks before long.

"I think I'll take it year by year," Nash said. "I probably won't stay the four years, but if I have to, I will."

Although Nash was ranked 64th among North American skaters by Central Scouting, Prendergast wanted to move up to get their man.

"He shows up to play every night and he plays all over the ice. He's not intimidated," he said of Nash.

"He's at his pace as far as turning pro, but here's a kid that, in our estimation is gonna play, for sure. He's got all the tools to be a solid NHL player."


GRR!!!

RichH
First of all, I'm horrified to see the asterisk next to Brendon Nash's name, but I'm hoping against hope that it's just a USCHO mistake:

[www.uscho.com]

I wonder if this is somehow tied to Brendon's knee injury. Is the injury bad enough that they would have already decided that he's not part of the 2007-08 team? I hope the answer is: "no". I'd prefer it to be a USCHO mistake.

redice
I wonder if this is somehow tied to Brendon's knee injury. Is the injury bad enough that they would have already decided that he's not part of the 2007-08 team? I hope the answer is: "no". I'd prefer it to be a USCHO mistake.[/quote

He knee injury is comparable to the injury that Duante Culpepper suffered a couple of years ago. It would surprise me greatly that the elder Nash is able to play this season. Hopefully he will just be able to come back from it at some point, but this season is very unrealistic.

Wouldn't the notation be "medical redshirt" if he was still with the team? This doesn't bode well for the team.

What link does Riley have if his brother isn't playing?

DILLIGAF

redice
I wonder if this is somehow tied to Brendon's knee injury. Is the injury bad enough that they would have already decided that he's not part of the 2007-08 team? I hope the answer is: "no". I'd prefer it to be a USCHO mistake.[/quote

He knee injury is comparable to the injury that Duante Culpepper suffered a couple of years ago. It would surprise me greatly that the elder Nash is able to play this season. Hopefully he will just be able to come back from it at some point, but this season is very unrealistic.

Wouldn't the notation be "medical redshirt" if he was still with the team? This doesn't bode well for the team.

What link does Riley have if his brother isn't playing?

will some one please PM me with details?

DILLIGAF

evilnaturedrobot
[What is so disturbing about the recent two defections is that neither Milo or Romano was offered a pro contract, but instead left to join teams on the junior level. It's hard to blame a kid when he inks a deal with an NHL team, but when they leave to join other youth teams it's a vote of no confidence in the Cornell program.

Signing with a OHL team is hardly "joining a youth team". The CHL is the premier development league for the NHL. Those teams run budgets much larger than Cornell does and the players are paid. It is professional hockey.

But I do agree with you that you can consider it a vote of no confidence in Cornell.

By youth team I meen Junior level hockey. I don't want to get into the NCAA/CHL level of competition debate, but I think we can safely say that college hockey (due to the drasticaly older age of the players) is atleast comparable to the CHL, and probably a bit tougher. Leaving for the CHL is a lateral move in terms of competition, it's not like signing a pro contract and going to the NHL or AHL. What this says is that Romano and Milo didn't feel that they where going to develop at Cornell, and that is disconcerting.

evilnaturedrobot
What this says is that Romano and Milo didn't feel that they where going to develop at Cornell, and that is disconcerting.

In this we agree.

evilnaturedrobot
What this says is that Romano and Milo didn't feel that they where going to develop at Cornell, and that is disconcerting.

Based upon the information the team has publicly shared, it appears...
1) It was Romano's choice to leave the team.
2) It was not Milo's choice to leave the team.

DILLIGAF
I think you are right, it will depend somewhat on who drafts him and somewhat on who his "family advisor" is. Drafted that high, he stands to get a decent Major Junior contract too, which could sway him immediately.

Also, I think you are right, if he does make it to Cornell, it will not be a full 4 years. It will be a one and done or 2 and out for him.

The top programs deal with that every year. You count yourself lucky for what time you get with the very best players. See Minnesota, Maine, North Dakota, etc. The all recruit with the idea of losing freshmen and sophs.

It is the price of success.

Since his rights are owned by Swift Current in the WHL this will probably be the biggest obstacle for him. Edmonton is not a College recruiting team. All their past picks have not worked out in US College Hockey. Major Jr. is just more suited for the skilled and Pro level player. And since we [CU] never produce any NHL caliber fowards[except for Moulson, the jury is still out] he will do what Romano did, go to a better Hockey (Happy) place....Happy Gilmore

plrd78
And since we [CU] never produce any NHL caliber fowards

Nope, never. Nada.

ithacat

evilnaturedrobot
What this says is that Romano and Milo didn't feel that they where going to develop at Cornell, and that is disconcerting.

Based upon the information the team has publicly shared, it appears...
1) It was Romano's choice to leave the team.
2) It was not Milo's choice to leave the team.

What I've been told is that it was Milo's choice to leave the team, and that baseball had nothing to do with it. Take this for what it's worth, I don't claim that it's absolutely true, but it's what I've been told.

plrd78

DILLIGAF
I think you are right, it will depend somewhat on who drafts him and somewhat on who his "family advisor" is. Drafted that high, he stands to get a decent Major Junior contract too, which could sway him immediately.

Also, I think you are right, if he does make it to Cornell, it will not be a full 4 years. It will be a one and done or 2 and out for him.

The top programs deal with that every year. You count yourself lucky for what time you get with the very best players. See Minnesota, Maine, North Dakota, etc. The all recruit with the idea of losing freshmen and sophs.

It is the price of success.

Since his rights are owned by Swift Current in the WHL this will probably be the biggest obstacle for him. Edmonton is not a College recruiting team. All their past picks have not worked out in US College Hockey. Major Jr. is just more suited for the skilled and Pro level player. And since we [CU] never produce any NHL caliber fowards[except for Moulson, the jury is still out] he will do what Romano did, go to a better Hockey (Happy) place....Happy Gilmore

Edmonton's had pretty good success with Shawn Horcoff (Mich. St.) and Fernando Pisani (Providence), each of whom played all four years in college. More recently they've been collecting young college defenseman (Tom Gilbert, Matt Greene, Brad Winchester). So it doesn't seem that they have big problems with players taking the NCAA route.

DeltaOne81

plrd78
And since we [CU] never produce any NHL caliber fowards

Nope, never. Nada.

Have I missed something, is cornell considered a fast track to the NHL?
I think the gophers had 3 go last year alone.

What a sign of success when you have to go back to the mid to late 80's to find examples.

DILLIGAF

DeltaOne81

plrd78
And since we [CU] never produce any NHL caliber fowards

Nope, never. Nada.

Have I missed something, is cornell considered a fast track to the NHL?
I think the gophers had 3 go last year alone.

What a sign of success when you have to go back to the mid to late 80's to find examples.

plrd78, you are the one who typed never. DeltaOne81 was just pointing out that your statement was incorrect.

You have been on this forum long enough to know that incorrect statements will be corrected. If you wanted to indicate a certain timeframe in which Cornell had (or had not) produced NHL caliber forwards then you should have stated what years you wanted to consider.

PS. I apologize to DILLIGAF for misquoting him/her.

I think our recent appearances in the Regional final game has put The Big Red on the radar screen of some kids that in the past would not have been interested in Cornell. So yes, that most likely means we now might have more talented players coming in, but once they are here, they may find that what Cornell offers really doesn't suit their needs.

It is disappointing to see two talented players leave after 1 year and not because they have signed with a NHL club. I hope Romano and Milo are two isolated incidents of kids that just picked the wrong college. Cornell is a special place, however, it is very demanding in terms of the hockey philosophy that the coaches employ and the academics and is probably not the best fit for a truly talented player.

Rita

DILLIGAF

DeltaOne81

plrd78
And since we [CU] never produce any NHL caliber fowards

Nope, never. Nada.

Have I missed something, is cornell considered a fast track to the NHL?
I think the gophers had 3 go last year alone.

What a sign of success when you have to go back to the mid to late 80's to find examples.

DILLIGAF, you are the one who typed never. DeltaOne81 was just pointing out that your statement was incorrect.

You have been on this forum long enough to know that incorrect statements will be corrected. If you wanted to indicate a certain timeframe in which Cornell had (or had not) produced NHL caliber forwards then you should have stated what years you wanted to consider.

If we're playing the Details Game, it was actually plrd78 who typed never (emphasis added).

I've got to admit, I'm actually with DILLIGAF on this one a bit. Cornell's record can't compare to the top-top-tier programs, and it's a bit silly to keep bringing up the rare handful of NHL success stories to try and convince ourselves otherwise. But you know what? We're an academically tough (well, depending on your major ) school in the middle of nowhere (donning asbestos suit...) that doesn't offer athletic scholarships. I think we do pretty well, considering.

ftyuv
I've got to admit, I'm actually with DILLIGAF on this one a bit. Cornell's record can't compare to the top-top-tier programs, and it's a bit silly to keep bringing up the rare handful of NHL success stories to try and convince ourselves otherwise. But you know what? We're an academically tough (well, depending on your major ) school in the middle of nowhere (donning asbestos suit...) that doesn't offer athletic scholarships. I think we do pretty well, considering.

I've kept my trap shut until now, but I think you hit the nail head-on, on both points: DILLIGAF is correct that it is -inducing to bring up 20 year old examples as anything relevant to today's program, and you are correct that we should be grateful for the level of success we have.

Neither, however, sheds any light on why we have had retention problems beyond the expected jump-to-N/AHL for the top tier. This is still a very open and very interesting question.

Kyle

krose
Neither, however, sheds any light on why we have had retention problems beyond the expected jump-to-N/AHL for the top tier. This is still a very open and very interesting question.

Do we actually have a retention problem for guys leaving the team for non- A/NHL purposes? Does two guys leaving actually constitute a problem? To me, it just a slight statistical anomaly that it happened twice in a year.

From the blog by the Swift Current Broncos play by play announcer...

Sometimes NHL teams prefer their high end picks to get used to the NHL grind by playing in the Western Hockey League or the CHL in general. The question did come up in the scrum. Lowe says he's ok with the College route but would "pick him up himself and deliver him personally to the WHL if Nash ever considered it." He says you have to respect the players wishes and it's something they will look at in the near future.

Doesn't sound like edmonton is a huge fan of cornell hockey.

DILLIGAF
From the blog by the Swift Current Broncos play by play announcer...

Sometimes NHL teams prefer their high end picks to get used to the NHL grind by playing in the Western Hockey League or the CHL in general. The question did come up in the scrum. Lowe says he's ok with the College route but would "pick him up himself and deliver him personally to the WHL if Nash ever considered it." He says you have to respect the players wishes and it's something they will look at in the near future.

Doesn't sound like edmonton is a huge fan of cornell hockey.

Perhaps, but you excluded the most important (at least for Cornell fans) section of the blog entry. Here it is in it's entirety:

The biggest interest for Bronco fans was the Edmonton Oilers selection of Riley Nash 21st overall. Nash is a Bronco bantam draft pick and has chosen the college route - he will attend Cornell University next season.

No one had Nash that high but the Oilers really like him. In a media scrum following the first round, Oilers General Manager Kevin Lowe stated that he really interviewed and tested well with them and he has a "fire in his belly to play in the NHL". The Oilers weren't too confident he would be around with their next pick so they decided to scoop him up.


Sometimes NHL teams prefer their high end picks to get used to the NHL grind by playing in the Western Hockey League or the CHL in general. The question did come up in the scrum. Lowe says he's ok with the College route but would "pick him up himself and deliver him personally to the WHL if Nash ever considered it." He says you have to respect the players wishes and it's something they will look at in the near future.


I congratulated and interviewed Riley Nash after he was taken and there's no doubt he's looking forward to going to Cornell next season. He has the utmost respect for the Broncos and the organization but just really wants to play College hockey.

At this point, he's a longshot to ever play in Swifty but who knows. I'm not going to hold my breath. Good luck to him.

[jonkeen.blogspot.com]

DILLIGAF
From the blog by the Swift Current Broncos play by play announcer...

Sometimes NHL teams prefer their high end picks to get used to the NHL grind by playing in the Western Hockey League or the CHL in general. The question did come up in the scrum. Lowe says he's ok with the College route but would "pick him up himself and deliver him personally to the WHL if Nash ever considered it." He says you have to respect the players wishes and it's something they will look at in the near future.

Doesn't sound like edmonton is a huge fan of cornell hockey.

Jeez, do you have to be so negative with EVERY SINGLE POST?

It sounds like Lowe is willing to let Nash decide what route he wants to take, which is the most important thing.

Might point was that edmonton isn't thrilled with his choice of going to cornell. That is true. To quote Lowe, "it's something they will look at in the near future".

Do you think that there won't be pressure to play in the WHL? He is a first round draft pick. The WHL will throw a lot of money to entice him to play. Is Cornell a fast track to the NHL like North Dakota or Michigan or Minnesota? Absolutely not. Riley Nash should listen closely to edmonton, they will say all the right things about college, but they will not want him in Ithaca. It isn't the right college for a first round kid on the fast track to the NHL.

[www.thepipelineshow.com]

DILLIGAF
Might point was that edmonton isn't thrilled with his choice of going to cornell. That is true. To quote Lowe, "it's something they will look at in the near future".

Do you think that there won't be pressure to play in the WHL? He is a first round draft pick. The WHL will throw a lot of money to entice him to play. Is Cornell a fast track to the NHL like North Dakota or Michigan or Minnesota? Absolutely not. Riley Nash should listen closely to edmonton, they will say all the right things about college, but they will not want him in Ithaca. It isn't the right college for a first round kid on the fast track to the NHL.

I am NOT a hockey talent evaluator, so take this with a big grain of salt, but I find it hard to belive that Edmonton "isn't thrilled" with Nash attending Cornell. It isn't like Edmonton drafted him and then Nash announced his decision to attend Cornell.

It has been known for a few months that Riley Nash is going to Cornell. Given that his brother his there, one would think that Riley is very aware of Cornell's hockey philosophy and should have fully evaluated (with his parents and "family advisor" how Cornell fits into is plan of becoming an NHL player.

Also, Edmonton knew going into the draft that Riley was going to Cornell, and should have a good idea of Cornell's hockey philosophy as well. I would like to think that Edmonton did "its homework" with respect to Nash and what Nash's goals are for his hockey career. Evidently having their draft picks play in the WHL is not such a deal breaker for Edmonton. If it was, I'm sure there were other players within 10-15 draft spots as Nash that would have been more amenable to playing in the WHL as an Oiler draft pick.

These kids are 18 years old, and for the most part I think it is pretty hard to determine how a kid is going to develop over the next 2-3 years. So as long as the draft is for 18 year old kids (and not 20 year old kids) my position would be (if I were the GM) to let the kids play for the next 2 years where ever the kid thinks he will be most comfortable. Then, after those 2 years, evaluate their progress (physically and mentally) and how they now fit into your organization. A lot can change in 2 years, to both the kid and to the coaching/management staff of the team that drafted him.

DILLIGAF

Is Cornell a fast track to the NHL like North Dakota or Michigan or Minnesota? Absolutely not. Riley Nash should listen closely to edmonton, they will say all the right things about college, but they will not want him in Ithaca. It isn't the right college for a first round kid on the fast track to the NHL.

If you want to make the point that major juniors is more appealing to NHL teams than the college route, fine; but your assertion that going to North Dakota, Michigan, etc. would be any different for "fast tracking" to the NHL than going to Cornell is nonsense. Ed O'Byrne will likely be wearing a Canadiens jersey in the near future, and just look at the Anaheim roster to see how much an ECAC career impeded the aspirations of McDonald, Marchant, etc.

scoop85

DILLIGAF

Is Cornell a fast track to the NHL like North Dakota or Michigan or Minnesota? Absolutely not. Riley Nash should listen closely to edmonton, they will say all the right things about college, but they will not want him in Ithaca. It isn't the right college for a first round kid on the fast track to the NHL.

If you want to make the point that major juniors is more appealing to NHL teams than the college route, fine; but your assertion that going to North Dakota, Michigan, etc. would be any different for "fast tracking" to the NHL than going to Cornell is nonsense. Ed O'Byrne will likely be wearing a Canadiens jersey in the near future, and just look at the Anaheim roster to see how much an ECAC career impeded the aspirations of McDonald, Marchant, etc.

Couldn't agree more. If you are good enough, you will make it. If you are good enough they will find you.

scoop85
Ed O'Byrne will likely be wearing a Canadiens jersey in the near future,

Never heard of him.

ursusminor

scoop85
Ed O'Byrne will likely be wearing a Canadiens jersey in the near future,

Never heard of him.

He and D'Brickashaw Pokulok left Cornell to sign pro contracts last summer.

More interview clips here:

[oilers.nhl.com]

Basically, the common theme in the Edmonton media: "So...Cornell. Why??!!" and reading between the lines, "how can we get this kid out of there?"

I just hope all this attention and talk in his ears doesn't make him lose sight of the fact that he's going to have to work hard here and there's still a lot of development to do in Ithaca, and lots of great resources for him to do it. It's obvious that Joe Edmonton Radio-Guy doesn't understand one thing about NCAA hockey in general and CU hockey in particular.

they will want him in the NHL in 2 years. Your first round pick isn't a long term project.

one could argue he knows Cornell Hockey all too well.

and one would be wrong.

Guy Flaming? is that a real name?

DILLIGAF
one could argue he knows Cornell Hockey all too well.

And clearly you're determined to make that argument over and over and over and over and over and over and over. We get it.

Not necessarily. First off, the WCHA is a much better conference then the ECAC, so if I'm an NHL GM who wants my 1st rounder to improve, where would I want him to play?

Second, how many games does Cornell play in a season relative to the WCHA or WHL for that matter? Again, as an NHL GM, where would you want your investment?

I'm not saying Cornell or any ECAC school can't send kids to the NHL. I'm just saying that it does have some significant hurdles to overcome relative to other teams.

Plus, when you factor in Cornell's annual abysmal non-conference schedule (I know, enough already), that's just another thorn in the side....

bothman
Plus, when you factor in Cornell's annual abysmal non-conference schedule (I know, enough already), that's just another thorn in the side....

I guess going 0-8 in four years of Beanpots is better preparation for the big leagues?

(Oh, sorry, 1-7, Harvard did at least manage to beat Northeastern once in their last four tries.)

bothman
Not necessarily. First off, the WCHA is a much better conference then the ECAC, so if I'm an NHL GM who wants my 1st rounder to improve, where would I want him to play?

Second, how many games does Cornell play in a season relative to the WCHA or WHL for that matter? Again, as an NHL GM, where would you want your investment?

I'm not saying Cornell or any ECAC school can't send kids to the NHL. I'm just saying that it does have some significant hurdles to overcome relative to other teams.

I don't think you're giving enough consideration to the level of talent coming in. The WCHA gets the most talented players; therefore, they produce the most NHLers. I don't think it has as much to do with the difference in actual player development between the leagues. Good players will make it to the NHL regardless of whether they play in the ECAC or the WCHA.

Robb

bothman
Not necessarily. First off, the WCHA is a much better conference then the ECAC, so if I'm an NHL GM who wants my 1st rounder to improve, where would I want him to play?

Second, how many games does Cornell play in a season relative to the WCHA or WHL for that matter? Again, as an NHL GM, where would you want your investment?

I'm not saying Cornell or any ECAC school can't send kids to the NHL. I'm just saying that it does have some significant hurdles to overcome relative to other teams.

I don't think you're giving enough consideration to the level of talent coming in. The WCHA gets the most talented players; therefore, they produce the most NHLers. I don't think it has as much to do with the difference in actual player development between the leagues. Good players will make it to the NHL regardless of whether they play in the ECAC or the WCHA.

It would be interesting to see a breakdown, by league (or even by ncaa vs. minors), of how long a similarly-drafted player spends in the AHL before making it up to the NHL. Does the average 30th pick end up in the AHL longer if he ends up going to the ECAC than if he goes to the WHCA or WHA?

There is perhaps a bit to be said for the "if you're good, you'll find a way to make it" argument. The question, though, is whether it'll take you longer to "make it" not as far. I'm far from an expert in this, but it seems to me that even the highest level of talent will go further faster if it's better cultivated.

Robb

bothman
Not necessarily. First off, the WCHA is a much better conference then the ECAC, so if I'm an NHL GM who wants my 1st rounder to improve, where would I want him to play?

Second, how many games does Cornell play in a season relative to the WCHA or WHL for that matter? Again, as an NHL GM, where would you want your investment?

I'm not saying Cornell or any ECAC school can't send kids to the NHL. I'm just saying that it does have some significant hurdles to overcome relative to other teams.

I don't think you're giving enough consideration to the level of talent coming in. The WCHA gets the most talented players; therefore, they produce the most NHLers. I don't think it has as much to do with the difference in actual player development between the leagues. Good players will make it to the NHL regardless of whether they play in the ECAC or the WCHA.

I don't buy that. Besides having a tautological conclusion (players good enough to make the NHL will make it), it is counterfactual. Because the difference between the top of the AHL and the bottom of NHL is so small, whether a player is stunted for a year or two in college may make a difference in getting to the NHL. If the WCHA has better competition, it is a better environment for development. If the WHL is more like the NHL, it is a better enviroment for development. If Cornell uses a style that doesn't play to Nash's natural strengths it may teach him new strengths ... but may also hinder his development.

I agree with Josh that DILLIGAF is being a smug prick about the whole thing but why all the contortions to deny the essential truth of what he is saying? I would bet that nobody in Edmonton wants Nash to come to Cornell. They also probably don't want to make a big stink about a smart kid attending an Ivy League school with his brother. So instead of straightforward requests to skip out on a commitment, you get two-faced PR-driven public statements that confirm that Cornell isn't the team's first choice but praise the choice anyway.

DILLIGAF
they will want him in the NHL in 2 years. Your first round pick isn't a long term project.

Edmonton has two other first round picks from this year to rush to the NHL.

[www.nhl.com]

DILLIGAF
From the blog by the Swift Current Broncos play by play announcer...

Sometimes NHL teams prefer their high end picks to get used to the NHL grind by playing in the Western Hockey League or the CHL in general. The question did come up in the scrum. Lowe says he's ok with the College route but would "pick him up himself and deliver him personally to the WHL if Nash ever considered it." He says you have to respect the players wishes and it's something they will look at in the near future.

Doesn't sound like edmonton is a huge fan of cornell hockey.

However, it sounds like Riley Nash is. Personally, I think that's more important.

[edited DILLIGAF to emphasize what I think is important]

ftyuv
It would be interesting to see a breakdown, by league (or even by ncaa vs. minors), of how long a similarly-drafted player spends in the AHL before making it up to the NHL. Does the average 30th pick end up in the AHL longer if he ends up going to the ECAC than if he goes to the WHCA or WHA?

It's an interesting concept, actually, but I think you'd probably run into issues of sample size. Certainly there aren't enough 30th picks (let alone 30th picks choosing the college route) for the "average 30th pick" to have much statistical meaning, but maybe if you broke it down into "average player picked from 1-15", "average player picked from 15 to 30", "average player picked in the second round", something like that, you might have something worthwhile.

Its not the end of the world that this kid won't (likely) stay all 4 years. It was a major coup for him to commit to CU a few months ago- and we were all singing the praises of Prince Riley, heir to Nieuwendyk's crown.
So what no one respects the Cornell program. That is new?
So what if he can't stay for 4 years. Lets have him for two. great!
I'm glad Romano and Milo are gone. Bad eggs. They didn't exactly help our team to the best of seasons last year did they?
What kind of player is Nash? Smart 2-way player. Just what we need. And Edmonton, apparently. My guess is that they want to keep him smart, and Cornell a good place to start. He could also use about 20 lbs of mass. hmmm... Cornell has one of the best reputations for turning skinny lanky smart guys into hulking skating linebackers. Its going to be great. Don't worry Oilers fans, this kid is in good hands with El Schafer.

ugarte

Robb

bothman
Not necessarily. First off, the WCHA is a much better conference then the ECAC, so if I'm an NHL GM who wants my 1st rounder to improve, where would I want him to play?

Second, how many games does Cornell play in a season relative to the WCHA or WHL for that matter? Again, as an NHL GM, where would you want your investment?

I'm not saying Cornell or any ECAC school can't send kids to the NHL. I'm just saying that it does have some significant hurdles to overcome relative to other teams.

I don't think you're giving enough consideration to the level of talent coming in. The WCHA gets the most talented players; therefore, they produce the most NHLers. I don't think it has as much to do with the difference in actual player development between the leagues. Good players will make it to the NHL regardless of whether they play in the ECAC or the WCHA.

I don't buy that. Besides having a tautological conclusion (players good enough to make the NHL will make it), it is counterfactual. Because the difference between the top of the AHL and the bottom of NHL is so small, whether a player is stunted for a year or two in college may make a difference in getting to the NHL.

I disagree that it's tautological - the original post seemed to focus on the sheer numbers of NHL players produced, and I think you need to "control for" the level of talent in the two leagues when talking about their player development. I'm not sure what you think is counterfactual. I don't think there are too many "facts" in this discussion - just lots of opinions!

Sidney Crosby could probably have sat on his couch eating doritoes for 2 years and still played in the NHL, but that doesn't mean that's a good method of player development. Damian Rocke could have played in the WCHA for 10 years (can you imagine the PIMs???) and would never have sniffed the ECHL, much less the NHL.

To rate the leagues' ability to develop players, you'd have to do something like: ignore the 1st and 2nd round picks - those guys are probably going to make the dance regardless. But of the guys drafted in the 3rd-6th (or however many they did) rounds, what % of the WCHA 3rd rounders make it to the NHL vs the ECAC? 4th? 5th? 6th? Then you'd have some sort of measure of whether guys who were rated as similar prospects going into college had a significant difference in their development while they were at college.

Sure, you can opine that playing against better competition in the WCHA would raise a mid-round draft pick's level of play, but I can just as easily opine that that same player would have developed more at an ECAC school because he'd get more ice time, PP time, PK time, and have to shoulder a leadership role.

Do you always have to be so negative...

DILLIGAF
Do you always have to be so negative...

Hahahaha. Thanks for the laugh

Robb
To rate the leagues' ability to develop players, you'd have to do something like: ignore the 1st and 2nd round picks - those guys are probably going to make the dance regardless.

I think it was DILLIGAF who said that first round picks aren't long-term projects, which I thought was a stretch at best. This comment is along the same lines, and I don't buy it either, although I do agree with your basic premise that we should control for draft position.

Statistically speaking, only about 50-60% of first rounders from the 90s have made it to an NHL career (200 games or more). I'd guess that 80-90% get at least a cup of coffee at the highest level. So yes, first rounders are probably going to hit the NHL, but the number of guys who start their NHL career within 2 years is quite a lot smaller.

Second round - the probability drops rapidly, and I'd guess it's in the 25-30% range for guys with 200+ games. Less than 12% of players taken in the third round or later play 200+ games in the NHL.

[proicehockey.about.com]

Therefore, it seems like a player's environment between draft day and his first NHL game should still be important for the early round picks. However, it's impossible to reliably compare major junior to college, since college has only recently started to attract a reasonable proportion of early round draft picks. When you start dividing it up into ECAC vs. WCHA, much less Cornell vs. North Dakota, you're in small sample size territory.

Besides, depending on the player and the program you never really know which route will be better. I don't buy the argument that major junior is fundamentally better - it may be, but the reasons I've seen are all tied in to the fact that major junior was *the* feeder system for the pros for many years. I do realize that most NHL GMs believe Major Junior is better, and 20 years ago they were right, but now it's not so clear.

Tom Lento

Robb
To rate the leagues' ability to develop players, you'd have to do something like: ignore the 1st and 2nd round picks - those guys are probably going to make the dance regardless.

I think it was DILLIGAF who said that first round picks aren't long-term projects, which I thought was a stretch at best. This comment is along the same lines, and I don't buy it either, although I do agree with your basic premise that we should control for draft position.

Statistically speaking, only about 50-60% of first rounders from the 90s have made it to an NHL career (200 games or more). I'd guess that 80-90% get at least a cup of coffee at the highest level. So yes, first rounders are probably going to hit the NHL, but the number of guys who start their NHL career within 2 years is quite a lot smaller.

Second round - the probability drops rapidly, and I'd guess it's in the 25-30% range for guys with 200+ games. Less than 12% of players taken in the third round or later play 200+ games in the NHL.

Wow. I don't follow the NHL nearly enough to realize that the percentages were that low. I stand corrected - even first and second rounders need a good development environment to "make it." I gues there are really only a handful of "can't miss" prospects each year, not two rounds' worth.

especially not in this draft, which might end up being the weakest since the diasaster of 1999.

All of these stats are great, but let's put down our calculators and engineering degrees for a second and take a step back. As a GM, I want my guy playing as many games as possible against the best competition possible (both in games and at practice). I think we probably all agree on that.

Given that premise, it's hard to argue the ECAC as the best spot for a high draft pick.

bothman
All of these stats are great, but let's put down our calculators and engineering degrees for a second and take a step back. As a GM, I want my guy playing as many games as possible against the best competition possible (both in games and at practice). I think we probably all agree on that.

Nope, we don't all agree on that. If I'm a GM, I want my guys to take whichever route has been proven to (you know, based on actual evidence) do the best job of developing players. If that turns out to be a league with more games, so be it - but I'd keep an open mind unless/until I had enough evidence to convince me one way or the other.

Robb

bothman
All of these stats are great, but let's put down our calculators and engineering degrees for a second and take a step back. As a GM, I want my guy playing as many games as possible against the best competition possible (both in games and at practice). I think we probably all agree on that.

Nope, we don't all agree on that. If I'm a GM, I want my guys to take whichever route has been proven to (you know, based on actual evidence) do the best job of developing players. If that turns out to be a league with more games, so be it - but I'd keep an open mind unless/until I had enough evidence to convince me one way or the other.

Bothman, when I first read your comment, I thought "that makes a lot of sense."
But, upon further reflection I have to add: what about player development in areas that don't involve games/practices? I'm referring to the infamous weight room. Can anyone argue that a player will have more time in the weight room at Cornell than he would have while keeping a heavier game/practice schedule in some other league? Any of us who remember Joe N. (adding weight each of his three years at CU to go from a highly-skilled player to a dynamic player) can attest to the value of the weight room.

Doesn't Riley Nash fit into the category of being a player who needs to bulk up to become dynamic?

redice
Can anyone argue that a player will have more time in the weight room at Cornell than he would have while keeping a heavier game/practice schedule in some other league?

Yeah, actually I can. Sure, playing fewer games might mean more time for weights but attending classes and doing homework makes takes away training time. A kid in major juniors who has nothing to do besides practice and work out should have more time to work out than someone who has to do schoolwork.

Likewise, I'm sure Cornell means a lot more school time than at least several of the WCHA schools. Even if you're an Hotelie.

KeithK

redice
Can anyone argue that a player will have more time in the weight room at Cornell than he would have while keeping a heavier game/practice schedule in some other league?

Yeah, actually I can. Sure, playing fewer games might mean more time for weights but attending classes and doing homework makes takes away training time. A kid in major juniors who has nothing to do besides practice and work out should have more time to work out than someone who has to do schoolwork.

Likewise, I'm sure Cornell means a lot more school time than at least several of the WCHA schools. Even if you're an Hotelie.

And I, as GM, want to see guys that not only can handle pressure situations,but excel in spite of the pressure to succeed, either in the class room, locker room or playoff game 7.

The Rancor
And I, as GM

Until one of you hosers actually becomes a GM of an NHL team, I will continue to laugh at your Monday morning quarterbacking. I suspect they know their business much better than you do, and if they want draftees to play in Juniors or the WCHA, I suspect they have a good reason for it even though I don't know what that is.

Kyle

krose

The Rancor
And I, as GM

Until one of you hosers actually becomes a GM of an NHL team, I will continue to laugh at your Monday morning quarterbacking. I suspect they know their business much better than you do, and if they want draftees to play in Juniors or the WCHA, I suspect they have a good reason for it even though I don't know what that is.

Kyle

I suspect there is not one correct answer here. It's partially a matter of opinion (the GMs', not ours) and, in other cases, the varying developmental needs of the particular player.

krose

The Rancor
And I, as GM

Until one of you hosers actually becomes a GM of an NHL team, I will continue to laugh at your Monday morning quarterbacking. I suspect they know their business much better than you do, and if they want draftees to play in Juniors or the WCHA, I suspect they have a good reason for it even though I don't know what that is.

I second this. GMs probably get a lot of stuff wrong, as Moneyball and the statheads that influenced it 'proved.' But those folks had reason to believe that the conventional wisdom was wrong and did the legwork to back up their theories.

The idle speculation here appears to have no basis in fact - there AREN'T a disproportionate number of players coming out of the ECAC or Cornell, though some do. It is nothing more than grasping at straws to justify the decision - on hockey development grounds - to go to Cornell over the leagues generally regarded as the best places to be prepared for the NHL because of theories like "developing leadership skills" and "additional ice time."

If Nash couldn't get the ice time he needs to develop at a WCHA school or a WHL team, he wasn't going to make the NHL anyway.

krose

The Rancor
And I, as GM

Until one of you hosers actually becomes a GM of an NHL team, I will continue to laugh at your Monday morning quarterbacking.

I think it's more of off-season quarterbacking

ftyuv

krose

The Rancor
And I, as GM

Until one of you hosers actually becomes a GM of an NHL team, I will continue to laugh at your Monday morning quarterbacking.

I think it's more of off-season quarterbacking

exactly!

Somthing to consider is the kind of player that Riley Nash is, or atleast the kind of player that we've been told he is. By all accounts, Riley is a responcible two-way player with nice, but not elite (atleast not by 1st round pick standards) offensive skills who doesn't shy away from contact. Is this not the prototypical Cornell top line player?

It's not about finding the absolute best developmental path, it's about finding the best route for the player in question. Riley and Schafer sound like a good fit.

evilnaturedrobot
Somthing to consider is the kind of player that Riley Nash is, or atleast the kind of player that we've been told he is. By all accounts, Riley is a responcible two-way player with nice, but not elite (atleast not by 1st round pick standards) offensive skills who doesn't shy away from contact. Is this not the prototypical Cornell top line player?

It's not about finding the absolute best developmental path, it's about finding the best route for the player in question. Riley and Schafer sound like a good fit.

Well said.

thank you.

Arthur: The Cornell goal was scored by number ? Riley Nash!
Crowd: Nash!
A: Assisted by number 24, Brendon Nash!
C: Nash!
A: and number 26, Topher Scott.
C: Scott!
A; Time of the goal, 1:21 First Period.
C: First period!


My prediction...

O'Byrne, Pokulok, Romano...why must the players with fun names to shout leave early?

evilnaturedrobot
O'Byrne, Pokulok, Romano...why must the players with fun names to shout leave early?

We did get four years out of a player whose name sounded like a brand of Canadian beer.

I didn't know that they brew Schaefer in Canada.

evilnaturedrobot
O'Byrne, Pokulok, Romano...why must the players with fun names to shout leave early?

Mike Sancimino played for 4 years.

evilnaturedrobot
O'Byrne, Pokulok, Romano...why must the players with fun names to shout leave early?

Along the lines of fun names to shout was Pegs, but with all of Lynah at once, it sometimes came out slightly lisped: "PEGA-WAH-WO!"

[www.uscho.com]

According to this, Brendon Nash has left the team. Didn't see it anywhere else so it must be a typo im hoping? I know that Galiardi has left Dartmouth and he and Brendon are the only two players listed here as "no longer with team". Sorry if this has been spoken of before.

ryeguy
http://www.uscho.com/agate/item,draft07.html

According to this, Brendon Nash has left the team. Didn't see it anywhere else so it must be a typo im hoping? I know that Galiardi has left Dartmouth and he and Brendon are the only two players listed here as "no longer with team". Sorry if this has been spoken of before.

I think it's just a typo. Someone posted it a few weeks ago IIRC. Brendon is still on the official roster at cornellbigred.com (Romano and Milo were removed from that site very soon after news of their departures broke).

ryeguy
http://www.uscho.com/agate/item,draft07.html

According to this, Brendon Nash has left the team. Didn't see it anywhere else so it must be a typo im hoping? I know that Galiardi has left Dartmouth and he and Brendon are the only two players listed here as "no longer with team". Sorry if this has been spoken of before.

I believe it was mentioned. It seems pretty clear that it was a mistake by USCHO. I bet it was a cut-and-paste error with TJ Galiardi which left the asterisk in. Riley Nash has been interviewed well after that list came out, and he keeps talking about how one of the big reasons he's going to Cornell is to play with his brother. There was also a hockeysfuture article about NCAA draft eligible players (which ranked Brendon #6 in the NCAA) where Schafer talks about how important he was as a freshman, and what he expects from him going forward. There was talk about an injury and him maybe not being ready for the beginning of the season, but I highly doubt he's "no longer with the team."

Articles in today's Ithaca Journal about Nash and the other freshmen.

KILL DEVONS KILL!!!
KILL NICHOLS KILL!!
SCORE ROESZLER SCORE!!

Nash-ville. I'm only upset that I didn't think of that.

And why did I have to read these articles? It only made me excited. This is the end of June...the next month is October, right?

RichH
And why did I have to read these articles? It only made me excited. This is the end of June...the next month is October, right?

I wish.

[www.hockeysfuture.com]

The player development coach for the Oilers has some pretty nice (worrisome?) words about Riley's progress so far this year. It might be a good sign that he mentions that Riley has to get bigger, which he can certainly do at Cornell so maybe they'll let us have him for another year...

nr53
http://www.hockeysfuture.com/articles/10192/oilers_ncaa_prospects_update/

The player development coach for the Oilers has some pretty nice (worrisome?) words about Riley's progress so far this year. It might be a good sign that he mentions that Riley has to get bigger, which he can certainly do at Cornell so maybe they'll let us have him for another year...

I'd be surprised if he stays any less or more than two years.