You Are The Committee

Less fun, since Cornell's not involved, but if you want to see how ECAC participation in the NCAAs can be maximized:

[www.collegehockeynews.com]

With .003 bonus, the following results get Dartmouth, St. Lawrence, and Clarkson all into the tournament. Can anyone get Q in without the autobid?

CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan State.
ECACHL Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Clarkson.
ECACHL Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
ECACHL Championship game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
ECACHL Consolation game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Army defeats Sacred Heart.

not that anyone cares, but the following with a .003 bonus gives a 2-wat tie for 1st, 2 way tie for 3rd, 3-way tie for 5th, and 3 way tie for 8th. I bet the committee would shit a brick if that happened.

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Army.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Sacred Heart.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Connecticut.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Lake Superior defeats Notre Dame.
* CCHA Championship game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Notre Dame.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
* ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats St. Lawrence.
* ECAC Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Massachusetts defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Massachusetts.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.

and these results get clarkson and SLU in, with clarkson the number 4 seed

* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Connecticut defeats Army.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Air Force defeats Sacred Heart.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Air Force defeats Connecticut.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Lake Superior defeats Notre Dame.
* CCHA Championship game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Notre Dame.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
* ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats St. Lawrence.
* ECAC Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Massachusetts defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Massachusetts defeats Boston College.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Championship game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.



what can I say... I am bored in calculus...

Edit: there was a problem in the YATC script, when the user tried a different scenario without hitting "start over" - which has now been fixed by JTW. So disregard the interesting but incorrect results below.
Here's a really bizarre scenario, with mostly the favorites winning. I've just emailed it to Adam W. at CHN as I thought he'd find it interesting/strange/etc. In it SLU goes 1-1 but doesn't make it. Mich. Tech goes 0-1 but does. Vermont somehow makes the tournament. St. Cloud goes 0-2 but jumps ahead of Minn. who goes 2-0. And BU loses to UNH but jumps ahead of them. As I said in my email to Adam, am I hallucinating?

Bonus=.003
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Clarkson defeats Dartmouth.
ECAC Semifinal #1: St. Lawrence defeats Quinnipiac.
ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats St. Lawrence.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats Quinnipiac.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Boston College.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
WCHA Semifinal #2: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: Wisconsin defeats St. Cloud State.

1 [AQ] Notre Dame (Nt) 24
2t St. Cloud State (SC) 20
2t [AQ] Minnesota (Mn) 20
4t Boston University (BU) 19
4t [AQ] New Hampshire (NH) 19
4t [AQ] Clarkson (Ck) 19
7t Boston College (BC) 17
7t Maine (Me) 17
9t Massachusetts (MA) 16
9t North Dakota (ND) 16
11 Michigan (Mi) 15
12t Vermont (Vt) 11
12t Michigan State (MS) 11 .
12t Michigan Tech (MT) 11
12t Miami (Mm) 11
16t Colorado College (CC) 9
16t Denver (DU) 9
16t Wisconsin (Wi) 9
19 St. Lawrence (SL) 7
20t Dartmouth (Da) 6

Jeff, I think something went wonky on you; when I run that scenario in YATC or the slack/tbrw DIY script, I get a more sensible:

1  	[AQ] Minnesota (Mn)  	24  	.5839  	 	Nt  	Ck  	NH  	SC  	BU  	BC  	Mi  	MS  	ND  	MA  	SL  	Me  	Mm  	Da  	Wi  	DU  	MT  	CC  	Vt  	Qn  	SH  	LS  	Cr  	NO
2 	[AQ] Notre Dame (Nt) 	23 	.5805* 			Ck 	NH 	SC 	BU 	BC 	Mi 	MS 	ND 	MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
3 	[AQ] Clarkson (Ck) 	22 	.5653 				NH 	SC 	BU 	BC 	Mi 	MS 	ND 	MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
4 	[AQ] New Hampshire (NH) 	21 	.5694* 					SC 	BU 	BC 	Mi 	MS 	ND 	MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
5 	St. Cloud State (SC) 	20 	.5620 						BU 	BC 	Mi 	MS 	ND 	MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
6t 	Boston University (BU) 	18 	.5511 							BC 	Mi 		ND 	MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
6t 	Boston College (BC) 	18 	.5494* 								Mi 	MS 	ND 	MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
8t 	Michigan (Mi) 	16 	.5494 									MS 		MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
8t 	Michigan State (MS) 	16 	.5402 						BU 					MA 	SL 	Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
10 	North Dakota (ND) 	15 	.5570 								Mi 	MS 			SL 		Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
11 	Massachusetts (MA) 	14 	.5333 										ND 		SL 	Me 		Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
12t 	St. Lawrence (SL) 	13 	.5391 													Me 	Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
12t 	Maine (Me) 	13 	.5368 										ND 				Mm 	Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
14 	Miami (Mm) 	12 	.5349 											MA 				Da 	Wi 	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
15t 	Dartmouth (Da) 	9 	.5365 																Wi 	DU 		CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
15t 	Wisconsin (Wi) 	9 	.5286 																	DU 	MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
17t 	Denver (DU) 	8 	.5325 																		MT 	CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
17t 	Michigan Tech (MT) 	8 	.5223 															Da 				CC 	Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
19 	Colorado College (CC) 	6 	.5230 																				Vt 	Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
20 	Vermont (Vt) 	5 	.5233 																					Qn 	SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
21 	Quinnipiac (Qn) 	4 	.5168 																						SH 	LS 	Cr 	NO
22 	[AQ] Sacred Heart (SH) 	3 	.5139 																							LS 	Cr 	NO
23 	Lake Superior (LS) 	2 	.5127 																								Cr 	NO
24 	Cornell (Cr) 	1 	.5073 																									NO
25 	Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 	0 	.5052

If you can recreate your results, please email me the sequence of steps you go through.

John-
Email has been sent. I was able to recreate again this afternoon, but don't usually get the result posted above. There seems to be some inconsistency in the results. I do have a printed copy though, which I can fax to you, just to prove I'm not crazy.

jkahn
John-
Email has been sent. I was able to recreate again this afternoon, but don't usually get the result posted above. There seems to be some inconsistency in the results. I do have a printed copy though, which I can fax to you, just to prove I'm not crazy.

Well, do you really think that's enough to prove a point like that?

Jim Hyla

jkahn
John-
Email has been sent. I was able to recreate again this afternoon, but don't usually get the result posted above. There seems to be some inconsistency in the results. I do have a printed copy though, which I can fax to you, just to prove I'm not crazy.

Well, do you really think that's enough to prove a point like that?

and I thought ugarte was our resident lawyer/comedian
-guess I should've just said "to prove I'm not hallucinating" which is what I was concerned about when I saw the PWR's that resulted.

This would get all four of this weekend's ECAC final four teams into the NCAA tournament:

Bonus of .003:

# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Army defeats Connecticut.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats Army.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Notre Dame defeats Lake Superior.
# CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Clarkson.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Quinnipiac defeats St. Lawrence.
# ECAC Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Dartmouth.
# ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Clarkson.
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts.
# Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
# WCHA Play-in #1: Wisconsin defeats Michigan Tech.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
# WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota.
# WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.

Avash '05
This would get all four of this weekend's ECAC final four teams into the NCAA tournament:

Bonus of .003:

# Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.

That's all pretty reasonable-- except the whole University of No Hardware winning HEA

After Friday's results, we can still get two ECAC teams into the tournament. Clarkson has to win the AQ, and then the winner of the ECAC consolation seems to get in. A tie does not work, both teams would be out. I didn't play around too much with the results from other conferences, so that might affect things a little.

With .003 bonus,
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Army defeats Air Force.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan defeats Notre Dame.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan State defeats Lake Superior.
ECAC Championship game: Clarkson defeats Quinnipiac.
ECAC Consolation game: Dartmouth defeats St. Lawrence.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.

Wouldn't QU beating Clarkson get both teams in as well?

Andy'07
Wouldn't QU beating Clarkson get both teams in as well?

Yes, I agree because I can't believe Clarkson stays home.

marty

Andy'07
Wouldn't QU beating Clarkson get both teams in as well?

Yes, I agree because I can't believe Clarkson stays home.

Oops, yeah that would also get two. I suppose I was trying to get three.

Here's a scenario where we still get 3:

Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Army defeats Air Force.
CCHA Championship game: Notre Dame defeats Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Lake Superior defeats Michigan State.
ECAC Championship game: Quinnipiac defeats Clarkson.
ECAC Consolation game: St. Lawrence defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Boston College.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.

Note: all this is predicated on a 0.0030 q-win bonus. Bonuses of 0.040 or higher really hurt SLU

We can get 3 in. Q has to be #3 by winning the title. Then SLU ends up in a 2-way tie for 12th - which they should win, but even if they don't, 12 and 13 would both get in, as there are no more (other than Q) conference finalists who aren't already in the top 10 (UND is lowest at tied for 10th).

A tie would leave it very very close for SLU - but looks like 13th and they'd still make it.

Although I haven't played around much with many other conference results, so there's a decent chance other things could effect it. Long story short: the consy game is unusually important (for SLU). And I can't find a way that gets Dartmouth in, even with Wisconsin falling past them and Clarkson winning (so Q doesn't take up an at-large), I can only see them tied for 15th.

Edit: Okay, I see a way that Dartmouth ends up in a 4 way tie for 14th with a win, a tie which they *should* win (highest RPI and they beat 2 of the 3 other teams in PWC).

So here's a reverse question, other than with a high bonus, can anyone fin a way we only get 1 in?

DeltaOne81

So here's a reverse question, other than with a high bonus, can anyone fin a way we only get 1 in?

If Dartmouth and Clarkson win, there's a good chance we only get one. Dartmouth has a chance to get in, but it depends on a lot of other things happening.

jkahn

DeltaOne81

So here's a reverse question, other than with a high bonus, can anyone fin a way we only get 1 in?

If Dartmouth and Clarkson win, there's a good chance we only get one. Dartmouth has a chance to get in, but it depends on a lot of other things happening.

Anyone with time to play with these want to single out the games in other conference that matter most for this?

With .003 and favorites winning I tweaked individual games to see what would happen.

A LSSU win gets SLU out of the 12t up to an 11t, where an Air Force upset and Michigan upset did nothing to remove the 12th place tie. An Air Force win did get Clarkson a 1 seed for sure though.

A MSU/LSSU tie gets SLU to a 4 way tie for 10th, with SLU having the highest RPI (which is the tie breaker IIRC). A SCSU/UW tie does little to change the current view of the PWR.

A BC win or a Wisc. win both get Clarkson a sure 1 seed, but SLU stays tied at 12.

A ND upset of Minny gets SLU into 12th alone, Clarkson stays in a a messy tie for 3rd.

Obviously, a SLU loss to DC is the most important decision, dropping them all the way to 17th. As well as QU beating Clarkson to get another team in with the AQ.

So all the favorites winning the other games, the important individual games look to be SLU winning of course, followed by LSSU winning or tying, Air Force, BC, or Wisc. winning.

As far as combinations look, again with .003 and favorites winning other games...(bolded combos appear to be the "best" ECAC scenario)

All upsets except for SLU puts them alone in 10th.

Air Force and LSSU winning puts SLU 11t and Clarkson 3t.

Air Force and BC winning puts SLU in a 3 way tie for 11th (with the highest RPI) and Clarkson alone in 4th.

Air Force and Wisc. winning puts Clarkson alone in 3rd and SLU unchanged from 12t.

Air Force and NoDak winning put SLU in a tie for 11th again with the highest RPI.

LSSU and Michigan winning puts SLU up to a 3 way tie for 10th (2nd highest RPI)

LSSU and Wisc. winning get SLU to a 11t (highest RPI) and Clarkson to 3rd alone

LSSU and NoDak winning get SLU to a 10t (highest RPI)

WCHA upsets (Wisc. and NoDak) yield Clarkson alone in 3rd and SLU tied with UMass for 11th (SLU having the higest RPI).

An important one here - SLU, QU, LSSU win and Clarkson is alone in 5th, QU gets the AQ and SLU is tied with Maine at 11 (SLU has the highest RPI) - Similarly, if SLU, QU, BC, and NoDak win (only SLU ties UMass at 11) or if SLU, QU, Wisc., and NoDak win.

Most of the other combinations keep SLU around their current 12th spot or bump them up to 11th but hurt Clarkson a lot, so I didn't include them. I think it's all correct.

Adam Wodon has a live pairwise blog going at
[blog.collegehockeynews.com]

jtw,

Do you have the page available where you can see what would happen if you change the results of some games? I am curious if RPI's victory over Denver early in the year had the effect of getting SLU in the Tourney over Denver.

ursusminor
jtw,

Do you have the page available where you can see what would happen if you change the results of some games? I am curious if RPI's victory over Denver early in the year had the effect of getting SLU in the Tourney over Denver.

I'm not John, but... seeing as its 5 AM in Berlin...

[slack.net]

(use 'specify results' towards the bottom)

Thanks, DeltaOne81.

Good grief. Assuming I did it correctly, RPI's victory not only got SLU in over Denver, it put Clarkson in 3rd instead of 6th.

Actually, I am happy that there is a second ECAC team and would have preferred three, but helping Clarkson shouldn't be on the agenda.

ursusminor
Good grief. Assuming I did it correctly, RPI's victory not only got SLU in over Denver, it put Clarkson in 3rd instead of 6th.

Actually, I am happy that there is a second ECAC team and would have preferred three, but helping Clarkson shouldn't be on the agenda.

I think your only issue was you did it too soon. I think the script updates at 2 AM, if I remember correctly, so it didn't have yesterday's games yet when you did it. Therefore it didn't have Clarkson's victory of UNH's loss or several other things that pushed Clarkson up...

(Make sure you unclick 'Include RIT' too)

So I ran it now, and it does knock SLU out, but Clarkson stays at 3.

Same thing with our win over UNH. Take that away and clarkson stays at 3, but SLU is sitting home next weekend.

It does make sense. Out of conference wins are important. It raises the whole conference. For instance, RPI's (the team here, not the ranking) win over DU raised their win %age, which means that for whichever team played them, their opponent's win %age is that much higher, and we all play them twice.

Okay, so now all of the league has a higher opponent's win %age. That means for every game we play in league, our opponent's opponent's win %age is higher. So it impacts our RPI positively for every league game we play.

Btw, another way both those things hurt, is they knock us out of being a TUC, and SLU was of course 2-0 against us.

DeltaOne81
\
I'm not John, but... seeing as its 5 AM in Berlin...

Actually, I'm in Louisiana this week, but it was beer o'clock in the Irish pub I was in, so thanks for the pickup.

I thought that games against RIT do count which is waht JTW sttes in his script. If I uncheck that button, SLU is 18th. Counting RIT, whom SLU beat, is a big effect.

ursusminor
I thought that games against RIT do count which is waht JTW sttes in his script. If I uncheck that button, SLU is 18th. Counting RIT, whom SLU beat, is a big effect.

You're right. John's text says that. Interesting. I take it back

ursusminor
I thought that games against RIT do count which is waht JTW sttes in his script. If I uncheck that button, SLU is 18th. Counting RIT, whom SLU beat, is a big effect.

As I understand it, RIT is a Team Under Consideration who was never actually under consideration. In other words, games against them count, but RIT doesn't get the benefit of being eligible for the NCAA Tournament.