ECAC 2026 Predictions and Pre-season Polls Omnibus

I'll start.

  	 	          W      L      T      Pts


 1  Quinnipiac	         16	 4	2	34
 2  Cornell	         12	 6	4	28
 3  Clarkson	         12	 8	2	26
 4  Colgate	         11	 9	2	24
 5  Union	         11	 9	2	24
 6  Harvard	         11	 9	2	24
 7  Dartmouth	         10	 9	3	23
 8  Yale	          7	12	3	17
 9  Brown	          7	13	2	16
10  Princeton	          7	13	2	16
11  St. Lawrence          7	13	2	16
12  RPI	                  8	14	0	16

Trotsky

Deleted because it doesn't make sense now.

Hyperlinks are your friend.

Trotsky
Hyperlinks are your friend.

Not those on ELynah when one is colorblind.

Thanks.

Pretty sure I asked the same question last year, but if I’m understanding correctly, isn’t the “future” category mislabeled as it is looking at the “past” ten seasons?

BearLover
Pretty sure I asked the same question last year, but if I’m understanding correctly, isn’t the “future” category mislabeled as it is looking at the “past” ten seasons?

Once upon a time, the Predictions weighted Past and Future factors based on the percentage of returning points and goaltender minutes:

The Future
Secondly,  we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming player: their quality and quantity.

Avg10 above, carried down.

Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.

Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.

The idea was intuitive enough. A team would regress towards its traditional norms to the extent it was losing a large percentage of playing time and thus replicating its ordinary recruiting level, while it would maintain its more recent level of success -- good or ill -- to the extent it was returning a large percentage of playing time.

That calculation was:

1) A PITA
2) Not a great theoretical metric for the phenomenon it attempted to isolate
3) Not producing good predictions, and especially
4) See 1)

So I killed the percentage weighting. In doing so, yes, I accept that I eviscerated the Past vs Future division of the factors.

I'll think about changing some names. It is a fair critique; thank you.

Updated. Tell me what you think. You may have to right-click and "Reload frame."

Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

ursusminor

Trotsky
Hyperlinks are your friend.

Not those on ELynah when one is colorblind.

Thanks.

Whoops, sorry. Here: [www.tbrw.info]

Trotsky
Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...

BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.

ursusminor

Trotsky
Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...

BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.

Did the administration change?

Trotsky

ursusminor

Trotsky
Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).

Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...

BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.

Did the administration change?

The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).

Of course the only reason EVERYONE hated her is because she is a height challenged woman of color. But yeah, replaced by an alum that actually seems to care about the school and isn't afraid to casually talk to the students ON CAMPUS WITHOUT A SECURITY ENTOURAGE.

It also helps that they have a newer AD along with the newer president

marty

Trotsky
Did the administration change?

The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).

It's nice.

[photos.zillowstatic.com];

Looks like RPI made a killing on the sale (bought $600k sold $1.1M just 5 years later). Good for them.

From a perusal of a lot of different social media posts it appears your dislike for her was... not unique. "Cunt of Biblical proportions" was one of the more kind assessments.

Trotsky

marty

Trotsky
Did the administration change?

The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).

It's nice.

[photos.zillowstatic.com];

Looks like RPI made a killing on the sale (bought $600k sold $1.1M just 5 years later). Good for them.

From a perusal of a lot of different social media posts it appears your dislike for her was... not unique. "Cunt of Biblical proportions" was one of the more kind assessments.

I'm stealing that one to use later.

I mean it works both bad and good.

Trotsky
I mean it works both bad and good.

Nice one

A lot larger uncertainty this year than most with a new head coach.

Trotsky
I'll start.

  	 	          W      L      T      Pts


 1  Quinnipiac	         16	 4	2	34
 2  Cornell	         12	 6	4	28
 3  Clarkson	         12	 8	2	26
 4  Colgate	         11	 9	2	24
 5  Union	         11	 9	2	24
 6  Harvard	         11	 9	2	24
 7  Dartmouth	         10	 9	3	23
 8  Yale	          7	12	3	17
 9  Brown	          7	13	2	16
10  Princeton	          7	13	2	16
11  St. Lawrence          7	13	2	16
12  RPI	                  8	14	0	16

Looking at that without looking at where it came from, it looks like RPI should be #9 since wins is the first tie-breaker. I'd rather have us indeed predicted as #12 since it can make RPI louse up your predictions worse if say half of RPI's portal additions and other new players perform as hoped. Note that Neutral Zone ranked RPI as #1 in the country in Portal additions. Granted, I do not agree that simply adding the value of each new player makes sense. RPI was #33 is the country in other recruits (#5 in the ECAC). And then there is the expected benefit of a coach who got AIC out of the toilet.

And you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.

billhoward
And you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.

Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.

ursusminor
Looking at that without looking at where it came from, it looks like RPI should be #9 since wins is the first tie-breaker.

Look where it came from. It's right. Where by right I mean the ass I pulled it from is ISO compliant.

ursusminor

billhoward
And you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.

Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.

RPI reddit (not even hockey) was 10x more amplified. She unified the entire campus community. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all hated her.

Trotsky

ursusminor

billhoward
And you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.

Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.

RPI reddit (not even hockey) was 10x more amplified. She unified the entire campus community. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all hated her.

There still are fans who think that Seth Appert should not have been fired.

ursusminor

Trotsky

ursusminor

billhoward
And you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.

Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.

RPI reddit (not even hockey) was 10x more amplified. She unified the entire campus community. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all hated her.

There still are fans who think that Seth Appert should not have been fired.

"Where you stand depends on where you sit."

We are third in the ECAC preseason poll. [cornellbigred.com]

Seems reasonable.

chimpfood
We are third in the ECAC preseason poll. [cornellbigred.com]

Clarkson ahead of Cornell doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me

BearLover

chimpfood
We are third in the ECAC preseason poll. [cornellbigred.com]

Clarkson ahead of Cornell doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me

Most the league isn't up Cornell's ass as far as we here are, and they see Cornell losing half their team and their GOAT coach.

Unless you are saying it could have been Dartmouth 2nd. I could see that.

Trotsky

BearLover

chimpfood
We are third in the ECAC preseason poll. [cornellbigred.com]

Clarkson ahead of Cornell doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me

Most the league isn't up Cornell's ass as far as we here are, and they see Cornell losing half their team and their GOAT coach.

Unless you are saying it could have been Dartmouth 2nd. I could see that.

I am just saying that Cornell looks like a better team than Clarkson (and also Dartmouth for that matter). From a quick skim of who these teams added and who they lost, Clarkson (and certainly Dartmouth) still seem a step behind Cornell. Obviously I don’t have much to go off of here but the USCHO poll which has Cornell 17 and Clarkson 22 seems more reasonable.

"We will know
When it is time to know"