Opponents and Others, 2022-23

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Trotsky
The statement that the probabilities are too high has not been demonstrated empirically. They may be, they may not, but "feeling" they are too high is not a mathematical argument.

Easy enough to run the numbers. If people want to put some reality behind their gut feelings, they should.

Dafatone

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

I don't think Merrimack would pass us in that scenario. But I'm not certain. If they would, then it's possible that UMass Lowell could beat BU, then beat Merrimack in the finals and maybe Hockey East gets three bids. But I don't think so.

Otherwise, yeah, you summed it up well.
Otherwise yeah, I think that's right.

upprdeck
NDaK has to beat St cloud and then probably Denver unless they barf it up..

upprdeck
Yea we need just like 1 good thing to happen.

You can see a path to #7-9 seed as well

Whether thats a good thing or not hard to tell. It would mean No Harvard in the our Bracket I would think

Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

Dafatone

Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

I really liked Fargo for the two nights I was there. Couple fun bars, surprisingly good sushi.

The drive there was pretty desolate, and that's coming from someone who lives in a pretty desolate place.

BearLover

Dafatone

Trotsky
I've never been to North Dakota. How bad can it be? I've been to Potsdam.

I really liked Fargo for the two nights I was there. Couple fun bars, surprisingly good sushi.

The drive there was pretty desolate, and that's coming from someone who lives in a pretty desolate place.

How did you end up there?

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

Trotsky
The 1 and 4 conditions are loosely related (Gate has a slightly higher chance of winning the tournament if we beat Harvard) so you can't just multiply out the probabilities as if they were independent.

nshapiro

Trotsky
The 1 and 4 conditions are loosely related (Gate has a slightly higher chance of winning the tournament if we beat Harvard) so you can't just multiply out the probabilities as if they were independent.

I know.
I thought about accounting for that, but then decided that it wasn't worth it given the completely arbitrary (but hopefully reasonable) estimates I made for everything. I figured doing the simple calculation I did was sufficient to make my point.

nshapiro

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

nshapiro

nshapiro

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

Dafatone

nshapiro

nshapiro

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

upprdeck
QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.

Al DeFlorio

upprdeck
QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.

So I have to root for Q? Argh!

upprdeck
If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.

BearLover

upprdeck
If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.

Let’s go Q!

BearLover
Per nshapiro’s assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN’s model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell’s chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.

nshapiro

BearLover
Per nshapiro’s assumptions, that gives us a 98.2% chance of making the NCAAs. The vast majority of that probability comes from Colgate not winning the ECAC. BTW, CHN’s model, which gives Cornell a 99.7% shot, was quoted in the Daily Sun even though Cornell’s chances of making the tournament are probably around six times lower than what the model says.

I love that you are quoting my numbers, but you do know that conference final four win percentages were picked out of the air, just to prove that the Massey number was not unreasonable, and were further disproved by my realization that winning our semifinal was not sufficient. Also, you should quote my BS number accurately - it was 98.92%, not 98.2%

nshapiro

BearLover

upprdeck
If colgate were to win and the other bid stealers fall short the ECAC could get 4.. But why play with fire; First goal is get Cornell in.

Let’s go Q!

I'll roll the dice and bet some other bid stealers fail.
I'm rooting for an upstate NY ECAC final.

Dafatone

Al DeFlorio

upprdeck
QUin/Colgat kicks this off Friday.. I think it becomes a bit clearer before we even go on the ice.

So I have to root for Q? Argh!

Gotta root for Q, then if the unthinkable happens, gotta root for Sucks. I hate it.

Dafatone

nshapiro

nshapiro

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

arugula

Dafatone

nshapiro

nshapiro

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

scoop85

BearLover

Dafatone

CU2007
I assume after this weekend’s games are all complete, someone smarter than I am could figure out what needs to happen for us to get in IF we were to lose to Harvard?

We are currently 12th in the pairwise. Minnesota State is 13th. They're on to the CCHA finals. They'll only pass us if they win and we lose next round, in which case they get an autobid anyway. Alaska is 14th. They're done playing for the season, and we have enough of an RPI lead that we should remain ahead of them if we lose next round.

15th is Merrimack. They're in OT against BC right now, but I think they fall into the same "gotta win their tourney to pass us" territory that Minnesota State does, though maybe not. Let's go BC.

16th is Michigan State, they're losing to Minnesota. Same deal, they'd have to win two at which point they are in anyway.

Where I'm going with this is that we are likely finishing 12th, with some possible autobids finishing ahead of us to push us backwards which is a wash. If we lose next round, it all comes down to how many teams outside the top 16 get autobids. Atlantic Hockey is a given. CCHA hurts us cause it's either Northern Michigan stealing a spot or Minnesota State likely passing us and stealing a spot. So we're rooting for favorites everywhere else.

Go Denver. EDIT: Or Saint Cloud State. Root for BU (if we can stomach it). Root for Colgate to not win the ECAC. Root for Minnesota to beat MSU or, if they lose, Michigan to beat MSU. I think if two of those four things happen, we are in good shape.

Or we could just win a game or two next weekend.

MSU lost, so there will be no autobid outside the top 12 from the Big 10. Seems like at this point, for Cornell to miss, all the following would need to occur:
(1) Cornell loses to Harvard
(2) Colgate wins the ECAC
(3) BU does not win Hockey East*
(4) Denver/SCSU does not win the NCHC

*maybe this could also be satisfied by Merrimack winning the semis and then losing to BU in the finals, i.e. they pass us for an at-large bid. So we want Merrimack to lose next round to be sure.

CHN’s probability matrix today gives us a 99.7% chance of making the NCAAs based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Not sure if trolling.

Don’t look at the matrix.

It severely overestimates the likelihood of higher seeds winning (i.e., auto-bids outside the top 16). Our chances are high, but not that high.

No, not trolling. I’m not a stats guy but 20,000 Monte Carlo simualtions, I presume, accounts for all types of outcomes. But it does seem anecdotally to be too high.

Sorry, didn’t mean to accuse you of trolling. This has been discussed in some other threads in the last week or so. The issue is that the model relies on KRACH rankings to predict the likelihood of different outcomes. So the 20,000 simulations are based on flawed probabilities.

Sure, the data coming out is only as good as the data going in.

I don't think that the 99.7% probability is so crazy.

If we just set some simple assumptions:

Probability of
#1 seed winning tournament = 40%
#2 seed winning tournament = 30%
#3 seed winning tournament = 20%
#4 seed winning tournament = 10%

#2 seed beating #3 seed = 60%

then the probability of each of these failing is:

1. We beat Harvard 60%
2. BU wins HE 60%
3. Denver or SCSU wins NCHC 30%
4. Colgate does not win ECAC 10%

so probability of all failing is .6 * .6 * .3 * .1 = .0108 = 1.08%
so probability of Cornell advancing = 100 - 1.08 = 98.92%

Which is 0.78% off of the Monte Carlo result...
of course, it also gives Cornell almost 3x the odds that we miss the tournament than the Monte Carlo does,

Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

I just realized that beating Hahvahd is not sufficient. We could be 12th in PWR but there might be as many as 5 bid stealers below us if we lose to Colgate in the final

I'll be damned. Beat Harvard, lose to Colgate, everything else goes wrong, and we are still out.

I'm not even sure our next game matters.

Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

Chris '03
Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Trotsky
If the West captures your soul, you won't be genuinely happy anywhere else.

Scersk '97

Chris '03
Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!

arugula
Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

Trotsky

arugula
Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

The former.

Jeff Hopkins '82

Scersk '97

Chris '03
Not interested in seeing Harvard pull even with 12 titles and four since Cornell's most recent title thank you very much. Would rather see the Quinnipiac win if I had to choose in this fictitious game.

Flaming pile of asteroid-obliterated rubble it is, then!

Exactly.

FTR, I just did a YATC with Colgate losing to Q, us losing to Sucks, Q beating Sucks, and all the other bid-stealers winning. We make the tourney at #12.

If we beat Sucks and lose to Q, and all the other bid-stealers win, we make the tourney at #10.

If we win out and all the other bid-stealers win, we finish at #7.

If we win out and all favorites win, we finish at #8 (which means Fargo). Meh.

ugarte

Trotsky

arugula
Which do you prefer, beating Harvard and missing the tournament or losing to Harvard and making the tournament? I think the latter. Hate wins out

The former.

Even though it's just the semifinal?* Man, I like to win the conference tournament but ...



* I know that facing Harvard in the final doesn't present a dilemma because of the autobid. Put that aside. Thank you.

ugarte
i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final

Trotsky

ugarte
i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final

Order within category is assumed. I'm perceptive, not perverse.

ugarte

Trotsky

ugarte
i assume that was supposed to start with NCAA final

Order within category is assumed. I'm perceptive, not perverse.

No, I mean you have both NCAA SF and NCAA F4. I was setting you up to edit and reply "what do you mean?"

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)

ugarte

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)

Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

ugarte

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)

Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

marty

ugarte

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Michael Hodge (F, Union)
Reid Leibold (F, RPI)
James McIsaac (F, RPI)
Henri Schreifels (F, RPI)
Matthew Hubbarde (F, Dartmouth)
Greg Japchen (D, Union)

Not a great look for Kathy Hochul

But seriously, the lasting legacy of Shirley Jackson.

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

Trotsky

dbilmes
Here's a list of ECAC players in Transfer Portal that was posted on Twitter earlier today.

I thought I had read that Peter Muzyka entered the portal.

Qpc 0
Hvd 0
Cor 1
SLU 2
Cgt 0
Clk 0
RPI 5
Uni 4
Prn 3
Yal 3
Brn 7
Drt 4

12 Post
10 Franklin Pierce
 9 Maine
 9 Syracuse
 7 St. Cloud
 7 SLU
 6 Merrimack

scoop85
You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.

scoop85
You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.

upprdeck

scoop85
You can always withdraw your name and stay at your school.

Only partially true.

If you go into the portal the school does not have to hold your scholie for you if they dont want to.

Trotsky
The full portal. It's... extensive.

Totals for ECAC teams:

Qpc 0
Hvd 0
Cor 1
SLU 2
Cgt 0
Clk 0
RPI 5
Uni 4
Prn 3
Yal 3
Brn 7
Drt 4

If you go into the portal and nobody picks you up can you play for your old school or are you DQed?

upprdeck
I wonder if the ivy school could pull the financial aid package deal as part of this if they wanted?

upprdeck
I wonder if the ivy school could pull the financial aid package deal as part of this if they wanted?

ursusminor
I don't know what list you are looking at, but RPI has 6, the three mentioned by Dbilmes, Klee, Mahshie, and Walsh.

The Montreal Canadiens have announced that the team has agreed to terms on a three-year, entry-level contract with Harvard sophomore forward Sean Farrell.

Farrell gives up his remaining eligibility with the Crimson.

Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.

BearLover

Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.

Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.

Scersk '97

BearLover

Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.

Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.

I don't care about the draft.

But, if you want to see it that way, I guess Harvard can crush us with all their 5th- and 6th-rounders that Teddy will surely bring to full flower as he has in the past. And, anyway, a few of our guys are going to be drafted, obviously Walsh.

Scersk '97

BearLover

Scersk '97
So next year's Harvard-Cornell games are going to be our high-powered offense, with our drafted and likely to be drafted group coming in, against their shut-down defense. Wild.

Harvard will be less talented next year. But in terms of drafted forwards, they’ll still be crushing us. With Stienburg and Malone graduating, the only drafted forward on next year’s team may be freshman Luke Devlin, as compared to maybe seven or so for Harvard.

I don't care about the draft.

But, if you want to see it that way, I guess Harvard can crush us with all their 5th- and 6th-rounders that Teddy will surely bring to full flower as he has in the past. And, anyway, a few of our guys are going to be drafted, obviously Walsh.

Trotsky
Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.

Trotsky
Every player from Massachusetts who goes to Harvard, BC, or BU is, by definition, a blue chippah. They all have little halos.

Trotsky
Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.

scoop85

Trotsky
Today reminds us blue chippahs are a double-edged sword.

Farrell was only a 4th rounder, so probably doesn’t fit the definition of blue chipper by draft status.

Trotsky
Every player from Massachusetts who goes to Harvard, BC, or BU is, by definition, a blue chippah. They all have little halos.

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

Scersk '97

BearLover
Quinnipiac has now made the frozen four three times since the last time Cornell did. What a disgrace.

And between 1980 and 2003, Harvard made it five times and won a championship. And between 2003 and now, Union made it twice, and Harvard and Yale made it once each, and Yale and Union won championships. And there was a once a stretch in which the ECAC very rarely had more than two teams in the tournament, and two times (2001 and 2004) we only had one. This year we had four, and we recently commonly get three, with 2021 as an obvious aberration.

So, what exactly is your point? It's not an exact fucking science. There are ups and downs. But in no way is how this program has performed at any time during Schafer's tenure a disgrace. I loved the team when I was in school; we play much better hockey at a consistently higher level now. I would have loved for us to win a championship when I was young, but it was a pipe dream; it's basically never a pipe dream now.

I only engage because your analysis in other situations warrants it. Go touch some grass and get some fucking perspective.

(And anyway, QU was lucky to escape that one. I expect them to get blasted at the Frozen Four.)

BearLover
In my opinion, it is disgraceful that a totally random school no one has ever heard of with zero hockey tradition and zero academic standards went division 1 like 25 years ago and surpassed the Cornell hockey program. It was demoralizing when Yale and Union won, too.