Rankings

JasonN95
And now Cornell has moved to 11th passing Union with its loss to Harvard.

... aaaaaaaaaand back into a tie for 13th.

huge games the next 2 weeks with Union and St Law. I dont think we can get swept either of the next 2 weeks and stay above the cut line. Oh if hockey was only a 20 min game..

With five games remaining. each game seems to increase with importance. Hanging around the 13th spot (pairwise) is precarious to say the least.
It would be nice to enter the post season firmly secured to an NCAA birth but that's not likely. The old saying, one game at a time is the only approach to
take beginning with Brown this afternoon. On paper, this should clearly be a CU win but if there is one thing I am certain of, there is no such thing.

upprdeck
huge games the next 2 weeks with Union and St Law. I dont think we can get swept either of the next 2 weeks and stay above the cut line. Oh if hockey was only a 20 min game..

As is so often the response to this sort of statement, if we get swept either of the next two weeks we probably don't really deserve an at-large berth anyway.

In any event, the Pairwise continues shifting all the way through the conference tournaments, too. I haven't remotely lost hope.

what does it say about the PWR that st cloud may be under .500 and still get into the tourney?

they are already under .500 in their league

they played a tough schedule though.

Blame RPI, Brown, and (to a slightly lesser degree) Colgate.

The rest of the ECAC seems to be about its usual strength, but the bottom three teams are dragging everything down.

Being at .500 is a requirement for getting into the tournament as an at-large bid. St. Cloud would be out.

so lets root for denver this week and CC next week.

Lets hope it doesn't come to this, but with two weekends left does anyone know what the tie breakers are for final standings for the season? CU quite possibly could tie for any spots from first thru fourth. I'm most curious about the 4th spot with Quin although that would require doing poorly these last four games.

I thought it was h2h and then maybe its record against team ahead of you.

1. Head-to-head record
2. League wins
3. Record against top four
4. Record against top eight
5. Goal differential head-to-head
6. Goal differential against top four
7. Goal differential against top eight

I'll post it all after the Beanpot results are in, but we're 12 in USCHO poll.

USCHO.com Division I Men's Poll
February 13, 2017
	Team	        (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Minnesota-Duluth   (44)	18- 5-5	993	1
2	Denver	           ( 6)	20- 6-4	955	2
3	Harvard		        17- 5-2	885	4
4	Boston University	19- 8-2	850	3
5	Minnesota		18- 8-2	773	5
6	Massachusetts-Lowell	19- 9-3	698	9
7	Union		        20- 8-2	665	6
8	Western Michigan	16- 8-4	615	8
9	Penn State		18- 6-2	614	10
10	Providence		18- 8-4	566	11
11	Boston College		18-11-2	496	7
12	Cornell		        16- 6-3	472	12
13	North Dakota		15-11-3	395	14
14	Ohio State		14- 8-6	369	12
15	Notre Dame		17- 9-4	310	16
16	Vermont		        17-10-3	252	15
17	St. Lawrence		15- 9-6	127	18
18	St. Cloud State		15-14-1	125	NR
19	Air Force		19- 8-5	111	20
20	Wisconsin		15-10-1	88	17
Others receiving votes: Omaha 51, Quinnipiac 40, 
Bemidji State 36, Michigan Tech 7, Clarkson 4, Canisius 3.

USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men's College Hockey Poll
February 13, 2017
	Team	              Points (First) Last Poll	Record
1	Univer Minnesota Duluth	506	(30)	1	18-5-5
2	University of Denver	478	(4)	2	20-6-4
3	Harvard University	420		5	17-5-2
4	Boston University	418		3	19-8-2
5	University of Minnesota	371		4	18-8-2
6	UMass Lowell	        279		10	19-9-3
7	Union College	        275		6	20-8-2
8	Penn State University	262		9	18-6-2
9	Western Michigan Univer	259		8	16-8-4
10	Providence College	210		12	18-8-4
11	Boston College	        186		7	18-11-2
12	Univer of North Dakota	128		11	15-11-3
13	Cornell University	116		15	16-6-3
14	Ohio State University	87		13	14-8-6
15	St Cloud State Univer	34		NR	15-14-1
Others receiving votes: University of Vermont 23, University of Notre Dame 19, 
St. Lawrence University 6, United States Air Force Academy 3.

Men’s Division I PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	               PWR	W-L-T	Win % Win % Rank RPI	RPI Rank
1	Minnesota-Duluth	59	18-5-5	.7321	3	.6078	1
2	Denver	                58	20-6-4	.7333	2	.5995	2
3	Harvard	                57	18-5-2	.7600	1	.5816*	3
4	Minnesota	        56	18-8-2	.6786	7	.5691*	4
5	Boston University	55	19-9-2	.6667	9t	.5673*	5
6	Penn State	        54	18-6-2	.7308	4	.5654*	6
7	Western Michigan	53	16-8-4	.6429	12	.5653	7
8t	Providence	        51	18-8-4	.6667	9t	.5581	8
8t	Massachusetts-Lowell	51	19-9-3	.6613	11	.5575	9
10	North Dakota	        50	15-11-3	.5690	24	.5550	10
11	Union	                49	20-8-2	.7000	5t	.5533*	11
12	St. Cloud State	        48	15-14-1	.5167	29t	.5507	12
13t	Cornell	                47	16-6-3	.7000	5t	.5496	13
13t	Boston College	        47	18-12-2	.5938	21	.5422	14
15	Ohio State	        45	14-8-6	.6071	15	.5421*	15
16	Vermont	                44	17-10-3	.6167	14	.5408	16
17	Omaha	                43	15-12-5	.5469	27	.5400	17
18	Notre Dame	        42	17-9-4	.6333	13	.5397	18
19	St. Lawrence	        41	15-9-6	.6000	17t	.5382	19

KRACH: Division I Men

Rank	Team	        Rating	RRWP Win % Rk	W-L-T	Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Minnesota-Duluth 518.5	.8275	3	18-5-5	0.7321	2.733	1	197.5
2	Denver	         468.1	.8128	2	20-6-4	0.7333	2.750	5	176.8
3	Harvard	         351.0	.7668	1	18-5-2	0.7600	3.167	23	117.0
4	Boston University290.3	.7327	9t	19-9-2	0.6667	2.000	9	148.7
5	Penn State	 281.9	.7272	4	18-6-2	0.7308	2.714	29	108.4
6	Minnesota	 278.4	.7249	7	18-8-2	0.6786	2.111	10	135.7
7	Western Michigan 272.1	.7205	12	16-8-4	0.6429	1.800	8	154.5
8	Providence	 261.7	.7129	9t	18-8-4	0.6667	2.000	13	134.0
9	Mass-Lowell	 255.5	.7082	11	19-9-3	0.6613	1.952	14	133.8
10	North Dakota	 238.6	.6946	24	15-11-3	0.5690	1.320	2	182.5
11	Cornell	         236.3	.6926	5t	16-6-3	0.7000	2.333	33	105.0
12	Union	         224.9	.6825	5t	20-8-2	0.7000	2.333	36	99.38
13	Vermont	         207.9	.6661	14	17-10-3	0.6167	1.609	15	131.3
14	Notre Dame	 202.3	.6604	13	17-9-4	0.6333	1.727	20	119.3
15	Boston College	 195.2	.6527	21	18-12-2	0.5938	1.462	11	135.2
16	St. Cloud State	 193.5	.6508	29t	15-14-1	0.5167	1.069	4	181.4
17	Omaha	         191.9	.6491	27	15-12-5	0.5469	1.207	7	159.9
18	Ohio State	 181.2	.6366	15	14-8-6	0.6071	1.545	21	119.1
19	St. Lawrence     180.7	.6360	17t	15-9-6	0.6000	1.500	18	122.1

USCHO.com Division I Women's Poll
February 13, 2017
	Team	      (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Wisconsin	(15)	27- 2-2	150	1
2	Minnesota-Duluth	20- 5-5	134	2
3	Clarkson		23- 4-5	110	4
4	Minnesota		23- 5-3	105	5
5	St. Lawrence		23- 4-3	97	3
6	Boston College		22- 4-5	79	6
7	Cornell		        17- 6-4	57	7
8	Robert Morris		19- 3-6	41	8
9	Princeton		16- 8-3	25	10
10	Quinnipiac		18- 8-6	16	9
Others receiving votes: Colgate 10, Northeastern 1.

Women’s National Collegiate PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	        PWR	W-L-T	Win % Win % Rank RPI	RPI Rank
1	Wisconsin	35	26-2-1	.9138	2	.6629*	2
2	St. Lawrence	34	23-3-2	.8571	3	.6213*	3
3	Minnesota-Duluth33	20-4-4	.7857	4	.6178*	4
4	Minnesota	32	22-5-3	.7833	5t	.6070*	5
5	Boston College	31	21-4-5	.7833	5t	.6034*	6
6	Clarkson	30	21-4-5	.7833	5t	.5992*	7
7	Cornell	        29	16-6-4	.6923	11	.5647*	8
8	Robert Morris	28	18-3-6	.7778	8	.5612*	9
9	Colgate	        27	21-7-3	.7258	9	.5587*	10
10	Quinnipiac	26	18-7-5	.6833	12	.5545*	11
11	Northeastern	25	19-10-3	.6406	14	.5520	12
12	Princeton	24	15-7-3	.6600	13	.5494*	13


KRACH: National Collegiate Women

Rank	Team	       Rating	RRWP Win % Rk	W-L-T	Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Wisconsin	1758.	.9342	1	27-2-2	0.9032	9.333	2	215.9
2	Minnesota-Duluth695.5	.8529	7	20-5-5	0.7500	3.000	1	241.9
3	Minnesota	618.9	.8388	4t	23-5-3	0.7903	3.769	3	173.3
4	Clarkson	530.3	.8186	3	23-4-5	0.7969	3.923	7	142.8
5	St. Lawrence	486.1	.8065	2	23-4-3	0.8167	4.455	13	116.7
6	Boston College	445.3	.7936	4t	22-4-5	0.7903	3.769	9	124.7
7	Cornell	        246.7	.6925	9	17-6-4	0.7037	2.375	17	107.6
8	Colgate	        205.6	.6565	8	22-7-3	0.7344	2.765	27	77.11
9	Robert Morris	201.3	.6521	6	19-3-6	0.7857	3.667	32	58.15
10	Quinnipiac	192.6	.6431	10	18-8-6	0.6562	1.909	19	103.0
11	Princeton	189.9	.6401	11	16-8-3	0.6481	1.842	18	105.5
12	Northeastern	189.2	.6394	12	19-10-3	0.6406	1.783	16	108.1

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Could someone please explain how BC lost to Northeastern but this seems to have had no effect on the pairwise ranking, in which we're tied with BC at 13th?

Swampy
Could someone please explain how BC lost to Northeastern but this seems to have had no effect on the pairwise ranking, in which we're tied with BC at 13th?

It didn't drop them behind any other teams in RPI, and it didn't flip their comparison with Providence, with whom they are behind in RPI but ahead in common opponents and head to head. Had the loss to NE been enough to make them lose to Providence in common opponents, that would have done it.

Out of curiosity, had Harvard won the Beanpot in 2016 and 2015 would that have put us in the NC$$?

Dafatone

Swampy
Could someone please explain how BC lost to Northeastern but this seems to have had no effect on the pairwise ranking, in which we're tied with BC at 13th?

It didn't drop them behind any other teams in RPI, and it didn't flip their comparison with Providence, with whom they are behind in RPI but ahead in common opponents and head to head. Had the loss to NE been enough to make them lose to Providence in common opponents, that would have done it.

it does however add some dynamic if those teams plays a series in the HE tourney.. Northeastern would flip that PWR if they were to win that series now.

same thing for us with STL this weekend. a win means they cant flip the pwr with them if we played again since it would probably only be a 1 game thing.

and beating union again would give us a shot to flip that one in a playoff game too.

Speculation about the outcome of games in which other teams play other teams apparently assumes Cornell's playoff future is out of their hands.
I hope this is not the case. I trust winning their remaining games will insure them success and there is no reason to praise or blame the luck of the draw.

Hooking
Speculation about the outcome of games in which other teams play other teams apparently assumes Cornell's playoff future is out of their hands.
I hope this is not the case. I trust winning their remaining games will insure them success and there is no reason to praise or blame the luck of the draw.

I don't see a soul here "blaming the luck of the draw." Only you, it would seem, with your unrelenting negativity, would even think of that. Looking ahead at the schedule of your team and those it's competing with for first place, a playoff slot, or whatever, whether it's major league baseball, the NFL, or any other sport, is something fans do as a matter of course. It's simply part of being a fan.

Al DeFlorio

Hooking
Speculation about the outcome of games in which other teams play other teams apparently assumes Cornell's playoff future is out of their hands.
I hope this is not the case. I trust winning their remaining games will insure them success and there is no reason to praise or blame the luck of the draw.

I don't see a soul here "blaming the luck of the draw." Only you, it would seem, with your unrelenting negativity, would even think of that. Looking ahead at the schedule of your team and those it's competing with for first place, a playoff slot, or whatever, whether it's major league baseball, the NFL, or any other sport, is something fans do as a matter of course. It's simply part of being a fan.

I gotta come down squarely with Al on this one. I truly believe that if Cornell takes care of business, they'll get into the NCAA tournament, and if they don't get in, they didn't take care of business. I don't believe that slipping from #15 to #16 and getting bumped for a lower-PWR-ranked ACA tournament winner means we got screwed, it means we finished too low to ensure ourselves a slot. Now, of course, truly crazy shit could happen - with six conferences now getting autobids, we could finish #11 and still get pushed down to #17 by a torrent of Cinderellas winning their conference tourneys. Then I would think we got screwed. But that's highly unlikely.

Yes, at this stage of the game, winning out should certainly mean we have a strong shot at an at-large bid.

As Al suggested, taking a closer look at how the math works doesn't mean we're looking for something to blame other than Cornell's performance if we don't get in. It just means we're geeks and nerds who enjoy looking at how the math works and speculating on how the math could shake out and affect us in different ways.

Beeeej
Yes, at this stage of the game, winning out should certainly mean we have a strong shot at an at-large bid.

Winning out means the auto bid and the national championship.

Hooking
Speculation about the outcome of games in which other teams play other teams apparently assumes Cornell's playoff future is out of their hands.

No.

Getting lucky is a necessary condition for making the tournament for all but the very best teams. Most teams in the NCAAs have more things break their way than not over the course of a season. It's silly to dismiss luck as a major factor in determining who comes out on top from a small sample of hockey games. Nothing wrong with scoreboard-watching.

I apologize for my apparently disturbing statement about "the luck of the draw". I wished to suggest that Cornell's playoff hopes truly ARE in the team's hands and it's best for the players and probably fans to concentrate on winning the remaining games, one at a time, rather than become distracted by teams Cornell won't even play again in the regular season - statistical analyses not withstanding. Focus upon Cornell winning rather than unscheduled opponent's winning or losing is not "negativity" in my book.

Beeeej
........taking a closer look at how the math works doesn't mean we're looking for something to blame other than Cornell's performance if we don't get in. It just means we're geeks and nerds who enjoy looking at how the math works and speculating on how the math could shake out and affect us in different ways.

And, a someone who is curious about such things, but not about to work it out for himself, I thank you "geeks and nerds" for offering up the results of your fun...

It is greatly appreciated... In my younger days, I used to do such things... Now, I read your musings & wait to see what happens.

redice
In my younger days, I used to do such things... Now, I read your musings & wait to see what happens.

This is true for pretty much all of us except John.

Sensitivity analysis allows us to better manage expectations. In some cases, it's "win or we are not as well off." In this case it's "win or we may be screwed."

Based on the Pair Wise Metrics on CHN, Cornell has a 76% chance of making the NCAA tournament. To quote that great scholar Al Davis, "Just won Bâby" and all will work itself out.

wakester2468
Based on the Pair Wise Metrics on CHN, Cornell has a 76% chance of making the NCAA tournament. To quote that great scholar Al Davis, "Just won Bâby" and all will work itself out.

74 on playoffstatus. Just win indeed.

BTW, beating SLU tonight moves us to 99% chance of a bye and 95 of top 3, while a loss drops us to 82 / 53.

CC-Denver and Miami-Minn-Duluth tonight in matchups of mediocre teams we've played versus the top two teams in the country.

By my calculations, which admittedly have not always been perfect, Cornell has already clinched a first round bye. In the worst case scenario, there could either be a three way tie for 3rd, a 3 way tie for 4th, a 2 way tie for 3rd or a 2 way tie for 4th. In all instances, Cornell has the tie breaker beating STL
twice and splitting with Q. If it gets to the next tie breaking criteria which the record against the top four teams, Cornell also wins that and even with a loss against Union that record would be better than all others. I would like to know if anyone sees it differently.

wakester2468
By my calculations, which admittedly have not always been perfect, Cornell has already clinched a first round bye. In the worst case scenario, there could either be a three way tie for 3rd, a 3 way tie for 4th, a 2 way tie for 3rd or a 2 way tie for 4th. In all instances, Cornell has the tie breaker beating STL
twice and splitting with Q. If it gets to the next tie breaking criteria which the record against the top four teams, Cornell also wins that and even with a loss against Union that record would be better than all others. I would like to know if anyone sees it differently.

What about if Cornell loses out and Q wins out, Cornell and Q wold be tied with 27 points. Assume SLU wins enough games to get to 28 points. The second tiebreaker is league wins, which Q would have one more of if they win out.

You are correct. There still exists the chance with three CU losses and three Q wins that they end up with 13 win to our 12. That does appear to be the only combination where we lose a first round bye. Good catch.

lets hope they win tonight and take care of business vs RPI so that the union game is at worst for 2nd place.

if we are looking at stopping a 2 game losing streak and falling out of a first round bye the NCAA pwr will be having huge issues as well.

2 out of the next 3 and a 2nd round sweep probably puts us on the edge again.

3 for 3 and a sweep probably locks us in.

anything less is out of our control.

upprdeck
lets hope they win tonight and take care of business vs RPI so that the union game is at worst for 2nd place.

if we are looking at stopping a 2 game losing streak and falling out of a first round bye the NCAA pwr will be having huge issues as well.

2 out of the next 3 and a 2nd round sweep probably puts us on the edge again.

3 for 3 and a sweep probably locks us in.

anything less is out of our control.

You mean if we beat Union, it's at worst 2^nd, correct? If we lose to Union, I think our "at worst" could be third.

yes.. poorly worded.

I imagine this has been answered before, so forgive me for asking, but how do ties figure into PWR?

Currently 11th in PWR. Only 8 10-thousandths of a point behind Providence in RPICH.

USCHO is currently showing us at #10 in PWR, with Providence and SCS tied for 11th. In RPI, it's the reverse. Providence is #10, and we're #11 -- separated by 0.0005 points!

Anyone know why Providence wins their comparison with UMass-Lowell?

UML had the lead in RPI, Providence wins head-to-head. But the common opponents column is a tie, which should result in a tie in the comparison (with RPI being the tiebreaker).

Instead, USCHO has Providence winning 2-1, despite showing a 1-1-1.

Dafatone
Anyone know why Providence wins their comparison with UMass-Lowell?

UML had the lead in RPI, Providence wins head-to-head. But the common opponents column is a tie, which should result in a tie in the comparison (with RPI being the tiebreaker).

Instead, USCHO has Providence winning 2-1, despite showing a 1-1-1.

Huh. Apparently going 2-0 against another team doesn't just net you one "win" for the pairwise. It's a point per head to head victory.

Learn something new every day.

Swampy
USCHO is currently showing us at #10 in PWR, with Providence and SCS tied for 11th. In RPI, it's the reverse. Providence is #10, and we're #11 -- separated by 0.0005 points!

CHN currently has us in a tie for 9th with Providence after PSU's devastating OT loss to Minnesota.

RichH

Swampy
USCHO is currently showing us at #10 in PWR, with Providence and SCS tied for 11th. In RPI, it's the reverse. Providence is #10, and we're #11 -- separated by 0.0005 points!

CHN currently has us in a tie for 9th with Providence after PSU's devastating OT loss to Minnesota.

Hardly seems fair to drop far after losing to a team as good as Minnesota, but okay, I'll take it.

RichH

Swampy
USCHO is currently showing us at #10 in PWR, with Providence and SCS tied for 11th. In RPI, it's the reverse. Providence is #10, and we're #11 -- separated by 0.0005 points!

CHN currently has us in a tie for 9th with Providence after PSU's devastating OT loss to Minnesota.

I saw the last few minutes of that game. What a turnaround!!

A few observations after the Clarkson game tie. Unless significant upsets occur the last weekend, we are destined to finish 3rd. Harvard would have to lose twice at home, Union would have to lose twice while we sweep. Not sure I see Colgate beating Union. The other likely thing to happen is that Clarkson will finish 6th with St Lawrence and Quin finishing 4th and 5th with the possibility of that order reversed. Thus, now that we have secured a first round bye and most likely 3rd, the conclusion is that our quarterfinal match up is with Clarkson. Honestly, while we tied them last night, it was an away game and senior night for them. Of all possible match ups, in my opinion, this is preferable to Quinn or Yale who really bottled us up defensively recently.
In one week we will see if I know what the hell I am talking about

Clarkson has been a good matchup but really they have generated very little offense against us even while scoring goals.. 2 of the 3 last night were simple play mistakes by the D. hopefully the real Angello shows up. He as all over the ice last week and this weekend generated very little.

Jeff Hopkins '82

RichH

Swampy
USCHO is currently showing us at #10 in PWR, with Providence and SCS tied for 11th. In RPI, it's the reverse. Providence is #10, and we're #11 -- separated by 0.0005 points!

CHN currently has us in a tie for 9th with Providence after PSU's devastating OT loss to Minnesota.

I saw the last few minutes of that game. What a turnaround!!

Look at the shots.

wakester2468
A few observations after the Clarkson game tie. Unless significant upsets occur the last weekend, we are destined to finish 3rd. Harvard would have to lose twice at home, Union would have to lose twice while we sweep. Not sure I see Colgate beating Union. The other likely thing to happen is that Clarkson will finish 6th with St Lawrence and Quin finishing 4th and 5th with the possibility of that order reversed. Thus, now that we have secured a first round bye and most likely 3rd, the conclusion is that our quarterfinal match up is with Clarkson. Honestly, while we tied them last night, it was an away game and senior night for them. Of all possible match ups, in my opinion, this is preferable to Quinn or Yale who really bottled us up defensively recently.
In one week we will see if I know what the hell I am talking about

I think that's pretty sound analysis, except for the part where it assumes Clarkson will get through its first-round match-up with putative #11, RPI. In this case that happens to be a reasonably safe assumption, but it does bear mentioning.

PlayoffStatus.com has our odds at:

1 1%
2 15%
3 83%
4 1%

We are big Colgate and North Country fans next weekend (to be honest, if Harvard is going to shit the bed for one weekend I'd rather it be LP).


The odds for 6th are:

Qpc 1%
Clk 92%
Yal 7%


Looking at the difference between the most and second-most likely to finish in a given position:

 1 Uni/Hvd 15%
 2 Hvd/Uni 24
 3 Cor/Uni 70
 4 SLU/Qpc 68
 5 Qpc/SLU 68
 6 Clk/Yal 85
 7 Yal/Prn 46
 8 Drt/Prn 15
 9 Cgt/Drt 10
10 Cgt/Prn 5
11 RPI/Brn 96
12 Brn/RPI 96

I think Brown and RPI are probably going down in the QF. But Princeton is dangerous and they could be anywhere from 7 to 10, each with odds over 17%.

Current matchups:

12 Brn @ 5 Qpc
11 RPI @ 6 Clk
10 Prn @ 7 Yal
9 Drt @ 8 Cgt

If chalk in the first round, then:

8 Cgt @ 1 Uni
7 Yal @ 2 Hvd
6 Clk @ 3 Cor
5 Qpc @ 4 SLU

And if that held, then at LP:

4 SLU v 1 Uni
3 Cor v 2 Hvd

Going into the final weekend, we are in third, finishing the RS with Union/RPI. St. Lawrence 2 points behind Cornell, finishes at Dartmouth and Harvard. I believe St. Lawrence needs at least a win and tie (3 pts) and Cornell a 0-point weekend to pass us since we win the H2H tiebreaker vs. SLU.

 1. Union   31 Pts.
 2. Harvard 30
 3. Cornell 28
 4. SLU     26
 5. Quinn   23 vs. Brown ECAC first round 
 6. Clark   21 vs. RPI 
 7. Yale    18 vs. Princeton
 8. Dart    16 vs. Colgate 
 9. Colgate 15
 9. Prince  15
11. RPI     10
12. Brown    7

In the quarterfinals in two weeks, the top four play the bottom four survivors, #1 say Union gets the lowest survivor, not the winner of the 8/9 games. We'd get the third-lowest survivor, right now #6 Clarkson. But if one 9-12 finisher wins, the third lowest could be Yale. Yale's forecheck seems as if it was created with Cornell in mind.

We are far more likely to draw Yale if we move above 3rd, but the odds of that are pretty low (16% combined).

Unless significant upsets occur the last weekend, we are destined to finish 3rd. Harvard would have to lose twice at home, Union would have to lose twice while we sweep. Not sure I see Colgate beating Union. The other likely thing to happen is that Clarkson will finish 6th with St Lawrence and Quin finishing 4th and 5th with the possibility of that order reversed. Thus, now that we have secured a first round bye and most likely 3rd, the conclusion is that our quarterfinal match up is with Clarkson. Honestly, while we tied them last night, it was an away game and senior night for them. Of all possible match ups, in my opinion, this is preferable to Quinn or Yale who really bottled us up defensively recently.
In one week we will see if I know what the hell I am talking about[/quote]

The above is not quite right.

We need to gain three points on Harvard and three points on Union to take first.

Harvard could lose and tie, Union could tie or lose on Friday night and if we win both games, we would take first.

If Harvard does lose twice, and Union loses Friday night, we could take first with a win over RPI and a tie with Union.

No games till next Thursday, so I'm posting the PWR and Krach now and I'll add the Polls tomorrow, even though they're meaningless.

Men’s Division I PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	        PWR	W-L-T	Win % Win % Rank RPI	RPI Rank
1	Denver	        59	22-6-4	.7500	2	.6033	1
2	Minnesota-Duluth58	19-5-6	.7333	3	.6032	2
3	Harvard	        57	20-5-2	.7778	1	.5838*	3
4	Minnesota	56	20-8-2	.7000	6	.5797*	4
5	Western Michigan55	18-8-4	.6667	11	.5727	5
6	Boston Univer	54	20-9-3	.6719	9t	.5634	6
7	Union	        53	22-8-2	.7188	4	.5567*	7
8	Mass-Lowell	51	20-9-3	.6719	9t	.5560	8
9t	Providence	50	18-9-5	.6406	12t	.5542	9
9t	Cornell	        50	17-6-4	.7037	5	.5535	10
11	Penn State	49	18-8-2	.6786	8	.5519*	11
12	St. Cloud State	48	15-14-1	.5167	29	.5497	12
13	Ohio State	47	16-8-6	.6333	14	.5471*	13
14	North Dakota	46	15-13-3	.5323	28	.5466	14
15t	Air Force	45	21-8-5	.6912	7	.5445*	15
15t	Notre Dame	45	18-9-5	.6406	12t	.5418	16
17t	Vermont	        43	17-10-5	.6094	18	.5415	17
17t	Boston College	43	18-12-4	.5882	21	.5410	18
19	Omaha	        41	15-12-5	.5469	26t	.5391	19
20	Wisconsin	40	17-10-1	.6250	15t	.5380	20
21t	Northeastern	38	15-12-5	.5469	26t	.5298	21
21t	St. Lawrence	38	15-10-7	.5781	23	.5286	22
21t	Quinnipiac	38	17-13-2	.5625	25	.5184	23

KRACH: Division I Men

Rank	Team	        Rating	RRWP  Win % Rk	W-L-T   Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Denver	        513.6	.8254	2	22-6-4	0.7500	3.000	6	178.2
2	Minnesota-Duluth509.5	.8243	3	19-5-6	0.7333	2.750	2	192.5
3	Harvard	        377.3	.7783	1	20-5-2	0.7778	3.500	23	114.1
4	Minnesota	320.6	.7502	6	20-8-2	0.7000	2.333	11	141.7
5	Western Michigan318.0	.7488	11	18-8-4	0.6667	2.000	7	162.9
6	Boston Univer	293.4	.7340	9t	20-9-3	0.6719	2.048	9	146.7
7	Mass-Lowell	261.6	.7122	9t	20-9-3	0.6719	2.048	15	130.8
8	Union	        248.2	.7019	4	22-8-2	0.7188	2.556	36	100.3
9	Cornell	        246.9	.7008	5	17-6-4	0.7037	2.375	32	107.6
10	Providence	242.5	.6973	12t	18-9-5	0.6406	1.783	12	138.6
11	Penn State	239.8	.6950	8	18-8-2	0.6786	2.111	22	116.8
12	Notre Dame	220.2	.6776	12t	18-9-5	0.6406	1.783	16	125.8
13	North Dakota	217.2	.6747	28	15-13-3	0.5323	1.138	3	191.6
14	Vermont	        209.0	.6668	18	17-10-5	0.6094	1.560	13	135.9
15	Boston College	200.8	.6583	21	18-12-4	0.5882	1.429	10	142.1
16	St. Cloud State	195.5	.6525	29	15-14-1	0.5167	1.069	5	183.3
17	Omaha	        193.4	.6503	26t	15-12-5	0.5469	1.207	8	161.2
18	Ohio State	192.2	.6489	14	16-8-6	0.6333	1.727	25	113.4
19	Wisconsin	191.5	.6481	15t	17-10-1	0.6250	1.667	21	117.0
20	St. Lawrence	164.4	.6147	23	15-10-7	0.5781	1.370	18	121.2

Women’s National Collegiate PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	       PWR	W-L-T	Win % Win % Rank RPI	RPI Rank
1	Wisconsin	35	27-2-3	.8906	2	.6639*	2
2	Clarkson	34	25-4-5	.8088	4	.6144*	3
3	Minnesota-Duluth33	22-5-5	.7656	7t	.6127*	4
4	St. Lawrence	32	24-4-4	.8125	3	.6100*	5
5	Minnesota	31	23-5-4	.7812	5	.6076*	6
6	Boston College	30	22-5-5	.7656	7t	.5953*	7
7	Cornell	        29	17-7-5	.6724	11t	.5644*	8
8	Princeton	28	18-8-3	.6724	11t	.5560*	9
9	Robert Morris	27	20-4-6	.7667	6	.5542*	10
10	Quinnipiac	26	20-8-6	.6765	10	.5525*	11
11	Colgate	        25	22-9-3	.6912	9	.5516*	12
12	Northeastern	24	19-11-3	.6212	14	.5442	14
13	Boston Univer	23	16-10-6	.5938	15	.5457	13
14	North Dakota	22	14-14-6	.5000	20t	.5181	16

KRACH: National Collegiate Women

Rank	Team	      Rating	RRWP Win % Rk	W-L-T	Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Wisconsin	1663.	.9307	1	27-2-3	0.8906	8.143	1	229.4
2	Minnesota-Duluth710.5	.8554	6t	22-5-5	0.7656	3.267	2	227.3
3	Minnesota	646.7	.8443	4	23-5-4	0.7812	3.571	3	190.2
4	Clarkson	611.1	.8373	3	25-4-5	0.8088	4.231	6	152.8
5	St. Lawrence	513.5	.8142	2	24-4-4	0.8125	4.333	9	126.0
6	Boston College	385.3	.7713	6t	22-5-5	0.7656	3.267	10	123.3
7	Cornell	        245.3	.6915	10	17-7-5	0.6724	2.053	11	122.7
8	Princeton	203.1	.6542	10	18-8-3	0.6724	2.053	18	101.6
9	Quinnipiac	199.4	.6504	9	20-8-6	0.6765	2.091	20	97.60
10	Colgate	        191.7	.6422	8	22-9-3	0.6912	2.238	21	87.85
11	Robert Morris	179.8	.6289	5	20-4-6	0.7667	3.286	33	57.37
12	Northeastern	175.1	.6233	12	19-11-3	0.6212	1.640	16	108.4
13	Boston Univer	174.6	.6227	13	16-10-6	0.5938	1.462	12	120.9
14	North Dakota	154.9	.5971	17	14-14-6	0.5000	1.000	5	154.9

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

87% chance of getting into the NCAA field according to today's CHN simulation.

This is our first run of the Matrix for 2017...It simulates out all the results the rest of the way, 20,000 times [t.co]

— College Hockey News (@chnews) February 19, 2017

RichH
87% chance of getting into the NCAA field according to today's CHN simulation.

This is our first run of the Matrix for 2017...It simulates out all the results the rest of the way, 20,000 times [t.co]

— College Hockey News (@chnews) February 19, 2017

I'm loving the 0.1% probability of some series of events that would result in us finishing #3 in the Pairwise - especially because it certainly has to mean us making a 6-0-0 run from here through Lake Placid (along with other external factors, obvs).

Beeeej

I'm loving the 0.1% probability of some series of events that would result in us finishing #3 in the Pairwise - especially because it certainly has to mean us making a 6-0-0 run from here through Lake Placid (along with other external factors, obvs).

And a 35% chance that we end up a 2-seed or higher.

And according to this: [playoffstatus.com] a 38% chance of being a two-seed or higher!

I have heard that there is no tie-breaker for the Cleary Cup. Can teams share it? Do you know if this is correct? If it is correct, is there a mathematical possibility that Cornell, Union, and Harvard could share the Cleary Cup?

Dutchman
I have heard that there is no tie-breaker for the Cleary Cup. Can teams share it? Do you know if this is correct? If it is correct, is there a mathematical possibility that Cornell, Union, and Harvard could share the Cleary Cup?

When it comes to Cleary it's all a pissing contest.

Ptui!

Dutchman
I have heard that there is no tie-breaker for the Cleary Cup.

This makes no sense to me. Why not just give it solely to the 1 seed?

Dutchman
I have heard that there is no tie-breaker for the Cleary Cup. Can teams share it? Do you know if this is correct? If it is correct, is there a mathematical possibility that Cornell, Union, and Harvard could share the Cleary Cup?

In case you don't understand, essentially none of us here care 2 cents about the Cleary Cup. That and $1 will get you a cup of coffee at McDonalds. It has no meaning at all. Now, being the number one seed is different, but getting a cup, well................

To pick seedng in the case of ties, you can find the rules at the ECAC site, but I'll do it for you.

Seeding for championship competition is based on total points accumulated during league contests. In the event teams are tied in the final regular-season standings, the following tiebreakers (listed in order of application) shall be used to determine seeding. (Note: Only League games apply):

Comparison of game results between tied teams (head to head).
Wins.
Comparison of results of games against the top four teams.
Comparison of results of games against the top eight teams.
Goal differential in head-to-head competition.
Goal differential in games against the top four teams.
Goal differential in games against the top eight teams.

In the case of ties among three or more schools, the criteria will be used in order until a team, or teams, is separated from the pack. At that point, the process will begin anew to break the "new" tie. In other words, when a four-way tie becomes a three-way tie, the three-way tie is treated as a "new" tie and the process begins with the first criterion.

Trotsky

Dutchman
I have heard that there is no tie-breaker for the Cleary Cup.

This makes no sense to me. Why not just give it solely to the 1 seed?

They award co-champs for everything in the Ivy league too, which is good because I wouldn't have gotten to watch us win a football title as an undergrad if there was a tiebreaker.

For what it's worth, here are today's polls.

USCHO.com Division I Men's Poll
February 20, 2017

	Team	       (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Denver	          (33)	22- 6-4	981	2
2	Minnesota-Duluth  (14)	19- 5-6	954	1
3	Harvard	          ( 3)	20- 5-2	913	3
4	Minnesota		20- 8-2	831	5
5	Massachusetts-Lowell	20- 9-3	734	6
6	Boston University	20- 9-3	733	4
7	Union		        22- 8-2	709	7
8	Western Michigan	18- 8-4	695	8
9	Cornell		        17- 6-4	555	12
10	Providence		18- 9-5	498	10
11	Penn State		18- 8-2	454	9
12	Ohio State		16- 8-6	447	14
13	Notre Dame		18- 9-5	412	15
14	Boston College		18-12-4	388	11
15	Vermont		        17-10-5	289	16
16	North Dakota		15-13-3	262	13
17	Air Force		21- 8-5	170	19
18	St. Cloud State		15-14-1	154	18
19	Wisconsin		17-10-1	136	20
20	St. Lawrence		15-10-7	74	17
Others receiving votes: Bemidji State 34, Omaha 33, Quinnipiac 17, 
Canisius 16, Michigan Tech 7, Minnesota State 3, Northeastern 1.

USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men's College Hockey Poll
February 20, 2017

	Team	              Points (First) Last Poll	Record
1	University of Denver	494	(21)	2	22-6-4
2	Minnesota Duluth	485	(13)	1	19-5-6
3	Harvard University	445		3	20-5-2
4	University of Minnesota	403		5	20-8-2
5	Boston University	353		4	20-9-3
6	Western Michigan Univer	316		9	18-8-4
7	UMass Lowell	        305		6	20-9-3
8	Union College	        303		7	22-8-2
9	Cornell University	201		13	17-6-4
10	Providence College	187		10	18-9-5
11	Penn State University	163		8	18-8-2
12	Ohio State University	140		14	16-8-6
13	Boston College	         97		11	18-12-4
14	University of Notre Dame 73		NR	18-9-5
15	Univer of North Dakota	 49		12	15-13-3
Others receiving votes: St. Cloud State University 29, University of Vermont 19, 
Air Force Academy 12, St. Lawrence University 4, Bemidji State University 1, University of Wisconsin 1.

USCHO.com Division I Women's Poll
February 20, 2017

	Team	      (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Wisconsin	(15)	27- 2-4	150	1
2	Minnesota-Duluth	22- 5-5	131	2
3	Clarkson		25- 4-5	115	3
4	Minnesota		23- 5-5	112	4
5	St. Lawrence		24- 4-4	92	5
6	Boston College		23- 5-5	74	6
7	Cornell		        17- 7-5	58	7
8	Princeton		18- 8-3	37	9
9	Robert Morris		20- 4-6	28	8
10	Quinnipiac		20- 8-6	23	10
Others receiving votes: Boston University 3, Colgate 1, Northeastern 1.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Hooking
Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Might as well go all the way and cheer for 10-0-0 and REALLY finish the season in style.

KenP

Hooking
Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Might as well go all the way and cheer for 10-0-0 and REALLY finish the season in style.

At that point, I don't give a flying expletive where it lands us in the PWR.

KenP

Hooking
Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Might as well go all the way and cheer for 10-0-0 and REALLY finish the season in style.

Note that Brown can go 10-4 to finish 14-25-2 and national champion.

Trotsky

KenP

Hooking
Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Might as well go all the way and cheer for 10-0-0 and REALLY finish the season in style.

Note that Brown can go 10-4 to finish 14-25-2 and national champion.

Let us know when it's time to enter that contest.

Doubt that today's AH game will change things much, so here's how it stands.

Men’s Division I PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	        PWR	W-L-T	Win % Win % Rank  RPI	RPI Rank
1	Denver	        59	24-6-4	.7647	2	.6045	1
2	Minnesota-Duluth58	20-5-7	.7344	3	.5992	2
3	Harvard	        57	22-5-2	.7931	1	.5868*	3
4	Minnesota	56	21-9-2	.6875	8	.5744*	4
5	Western Michigan55	19-8-5	.6719	10	.5725	5
6	Mass-Lowell	54	22-9-3	.6912	7	.5618	6
7	Boston Univer	53	21-10-3	.6618	11t	.5600	7
8	Union	        52	23-8-3	.7206	4	.5588*	8
9	Penn State	51	20-8-2	.7000	6	.5585*	9
10t	Cornell	        49	18-6-5	.7069	5	.5527	11
10t	Notre Dame	49	19-10-5	.6324	13	.5438	12
12	Providence	48	20-9-5	.6618	11t	.5549	10
13	Wisconsin	47	18-11-1	.6167	17	.5431	13
14	St. Cloud State	46	15-16-1	.4844	34	.5425	14
15	Ohio State	45	17-9-6	.6250	14t	.5421	15
16	North Dakota	44	16-14-3	.5303	28	.5418	16
17	Omaha	        43	16-13-5	.5441	26t	.5402	17
18	Air Force	42	22-9-5	.6806	9	.5388*	18
19t	Vermont	        41	18-11-5	.6029	19	.5379	19
19t	Boston College	41	18-14-4	.5556	25	.5341	20
21	St. Lawrence	39	16-11-7	.5735	22	.5291	21
22	Quinnipiac	38	19-13-2	.5882	21	.5217	23

KRACH: Division I Men

Rank	Team	       Rating	RRWP  Win % Rk	W-L-T  Win %  Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Denver	        554.9	.8356	2	24-6-4	0.7647	3.250	6	178.0
2	Minnesota-Duluth503.9	.8223	3	20-5-7	0.7344	2.765	5	189.0
3	Harvard	        420.2	.7953	1	22-5-2	0.7931	3.833	22	116.2
4	Western Michigan315.3	.7469	10	19-8-5	0.6719	2.048	8	157.6
5	Minnesota	307.2	.7422	8	21-9-2	0.6875	2.200	11	143.3
6	Mass-Lowell	294.8	.7347	7	22-9-3	0.6912	2.238	13	135.1
7	Boston Univer	292.1	.7330	11t	21-10-3	0.6618	1.957	9	152.4
8	Union	        258.3	.7095	4	23-8-3	0.7206	2.579	35	103.3
9	Cornell	        253.4	.7057	5	18-6-5	0.7069	2.412	29	108.6
10	Penn State	251.4	.7041	6	20-8-2	0.7000	2.333	26	111.1
11	Providence	250.8	.7037	11t	20-9-5	0.6618	1.957	15	130.9
12	Notre Dame	226.4	.6831	13	19-10-5	0.6324	1.720	14	133.8
13	North Dakota	214.4	.6718	28	16-14-3	0.5303	1.129	4	190.5
14	Vermont	        203.7	.6611	19	18-11-5	0.6029	1.519	12	135.8
15	Wisconsin	199.2	.6564	17	18-11-1	0.6167	1.609	18	125.8
16	Omaha	        196.8	.6537	26t	16-13-5	0.5441	1.194	7	165.7
17	Ohio State	183.5	.6387	14t	17-9-6	0.6250	1.667	25	111.9
18	Boston College	183.3	.6385	25	18-14-4	0.5556	1.250	10	147.6
19	St. Cloud State	182.5	.6375	34	15-16-1	0.4844	0.939	3	193.9
20	St. Lawrence	166.3	.6171	22	16-11-7	0.5735	1.345	19	124.7
21	Northeastern	152.1	.5971	26t	16-13-5	0.5441	1.194	17	128.1
22	Quinnipiac	150.7	.5949	21	19-13-2	0.5882	1.429	31	106.6



Women’s National Collegiate PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	        PWR	W-L-T   Win % Win % Rank  RPI	RPI Rank
1	Wisconsin	35	29-2-4	.8857	2	.6587*	2
2	Clarkson	34	27-4-5	.8194	4	.6140*	3
3	Minnesota-Duluth33	24-5-5	.7794	7	.6135*	4
4	St. Lawrence	32	26-4-4	.8235	3	.6122*	5
5	Minnesota	31	24-6-5	.7571	8	.6008*	6
6	Boston College	30	25-5-5	.7857	5	.5999*	7
7	Cornell	        29	19-7-5	.6935	10	.5725*	8
8	Princeton	28	19-9-3	.6613	12	.5551*	9
9	Robert Morris	27	22-4-6	.7812	6	.5545*	10
10	Quinnipiac	26	21-9-6	.6667	11	.5515*	12
11	Northeastern	25	21-11-3	.6429	14	.5499	13
12	Boston Univer	24	18-11-6	.6000	15	.5446	14

KRACH: National Collegiate Women

Rank	Team	      Rating	RRWP  Win % Rk	W-L-T   Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Wisconsin	1591.	.9273	1	29-2-4	0.8857	7.750	1	227.3
2	Minnesota-Duluth733.0	.8583	6	24-5-5	0.7794	3.533	2	217.2
3	Clarkson	635.7	.8415	3	27-4-5	0.8194	4.538	7	148.3
4	Minnesota	588.4	.8317	7	24-6-5	0.7571	3.118	3	196.1
5	St. Lawrence	543.7	.8213	2	26-4-4	0.8235	4.667	10	124.0
6	Boston College	423.1	.7852	4	25-5-5	0.7857	3.667	11	120.9
7	Cornell	        286.8	.7201	8	19-7-5	0.6935	2.263	9	130.4
8	Princeton	203.6	.6540	10	19-9-3	0.6613	1.952	18	106.6
9	Quinnipiac	200.3	.6508	9	21-9-6	0.6667	2.000	20	102.2
10	Northeastern	190.3	.6403	12	21-11-3	0.6429	1.800	17	107.6
11	Robert Morris	185.3	.6347	5	22-4-6	0.7812	3.571	33	54.49
12	Colgate	        172.1	.6193	11	22-11-3	0.6528	1.880	21	93.24
13	Boston Univer	171.9	.6190	13	18-11-6	0.6000	1.500	14	115.9
14	North Dakota	153.5	.5947	17	15-15-6	0.5000	1.000	6	153.5

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

Trotsky

KenP

Hooking
Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Might as well go all the way and cheer for 10-0-0 and REALLY finish the season in style.

Note that Brown can go 10-4 to finish 14-25-2 and national champion.

Wouldn't it have to be 10-2? They can lose a game each in the first and QF rounds, but from there on out they have to win, right?

French Rage

Trotsky

KenP

Hooking
Well said. Winning is everything. 6-0-0!

Might as well go all the way and cheer for 10-0-0 and REALLY finish the season in style.

Note that Brown can go 10-4 to finish 14-25-2 and national champion.

Wouldn't it have to be 10-2? They can lose a game each in the first and QF rounds, but from there on out they have to win, right?

This was prior to the final RS weekend, so they could be swept 0-2, then go 2-1, 2-1, 2-0, 4-0.

In the event they were swept 0-2, so, everything going according to plan.

Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

scoop85
Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

This site has us at 83%.

[playoffstatus.com]

andyw2100

scoop85
Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

This site has us at 83%.

[playoffstatus.com]

That's last week's PWR standings.

scoop85
Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

True, but of course the Matrix would give us a very good chance of winning the series, which is why they give us a very good chance of the NCAAs.

98% sounds high, but there's a decent gap between the top 12 teams in RPI and the 13th.

Keep in mind St. Cloud has a losing record and at this time is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. That provides extra cushion for Cornell.

KenP
Keep in mind St. Cloud has a losing record and at this time is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. That provides extra cushion for Cornell.

They have two games with Colorado College, then a playoff with a higher seed.

We likely need them to get swept in that playoff.

As has been mentioned here before, it's silly just how much they get rewarded for going 2-7 against the top two teams.

The battle for at an large berth for the NCAA's is, at minimum, limited to the 14th place and above in Pairwise rankings. The AQ from Atlantic Hockey league and WHCA are going to take 15th and 16th seeds, as none of their teams are currently inside the top 16 . If there is some really weird upset champion in any other conference tournament it will be an even slimmer opening.

Need to sweep the home quarterfinal series at minimum.

The Atlantic Hockey and WHCA champs will take spots 15 & 16, thus diminishing CU's options for at large bid.

Cop at Lynah
The Atlantic Hockey and WHCA champs will take spots 15 & 16, thus diminishing CU's options for at large bid.

You know that the math already takes that into account, right?

Yep. All they have to do is win out and past statistics be damned. I have a tough time applying the statistical strategies of well-paid advisors in a net-zero market to my love of Cornell Hockey.

does it really matter if the Atlantic Hockey and WHCA champs comes in 15-16 or 1-2?? either way its a 1 bid league and leaves the same number of at large bids.

the ecac has 3 team in now and i could see ST.L or maybe Quin get hot
HEast has 4 in with BC/Vermont stealing a bid
b10 has 4 with no one else
nchc 3 with St.Cl/NDak/Omaha at around .500 but not sure any of them can win the title
atlantic 1
whca 1


big games this weekend

PSU/Wisc
msu/osu

cc/stcloud
mass/prov
den/omaha
miami/nd

Dafatone

KenP
Keep in mind St. Cloud has a losing record and at this time is not eligible for the NCAA tournament. That provides extra cushion for Cornell.

They have two games with Colorado College, then a playoff with a higher seed.

We likely need them to get swept in that playoff.

As has been mentioned here before, it's silly just how much they get rewarded for going 2-7 against the top two teams.

If Colorado College can pull off just 1 tie, St. Cloud would need to advance past their first round to be NCAA-tournament eligible. Pretty sure we're all CC fans this weekend.

Beeeej

andyw2100

scoop85
Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

This site has us at 83%.

[playoffstatus.com]

That's last week's PWR standings.

It shows an update date of today, at 8:00 AM.

I did notice that it showed Cornell 9th instead of tenth, and thought that was odd.

Checking the site again now, and refreshing, changes nothing, so I'm not sure what's going on.

Edit: This page on that site does seem to have us 10th in Pairwise, but the 83% chance of making the tournament is consistent with their other page.

[playoffstatus.com]

Hooking
Yep. All they have to do is win out and past statistics be damned. I have a tough time applying the statistical strategies of well-paid advisors in a net-zero market to my love of Cornell Hockey.

I don't. It still comes down to win every game from now on and then fuck the Homecoming Queen/King/Both.

scoop85
Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

The probability matrix, as I've argued before, overvalues the chances of a stronger team beating a weaker team. For instance, look at Harvard: the model gives them a 45% chance of winning the ECAC tournament. In a tournament with (functionally) eight teams, including two other top ten teams, one team being almost even money to win the whole thing in a game as random as hockey feels wrong. I believe this to be true even given the 2/3 structure of the first round reducing randomness as well as the fact that Harvard is clearly one of the top teams in the country. Cornell twice this year nearly beat Harvard; Union beat them once. RPI beat Harvard. If this were basketball, the probabilities in this matrix would seem much more reasonable.

FWIW, our poll rank in the last poll of February:

2017  9
2016 18
2015 --
2014 11
2013 --
2012 13
2011 25
2010  9
2009 11
2008 24
2007 20
2006  8
2005  2
2004 18
2003  2
2002  9
2001 19
2000 --

Polls

USCHO.com Division I Men's Poll
February 27, 2017
	Team	     (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Denver	        (43)	24- 6-4	990	1
2	Harvard	        ( 3)	22- 5-2	928	3
3	Minnesota-Duluth( 4)	20- 5-7	924	2
4	Massachusetts-Lowell	22- 9-3	835	5
5	Minnesota		21- 9-2	788	4
6	Union		        23- 8-3	707	7
7	Boston University	21-10-3	703	6
8	Western Michigan	19- 8-5	680	8
9	Cornell		        18- 6-5	587	9
10	Providence		20- 9-5	532	10
11	Penn State		20- 8-2	506	11
12	Notre Dame		19-10-5	461	13
13	Ohio State		17- 9-6	393	12
14	Vermont		        18-11-5	294	15
15	North Dakota		16-14-3	252	16
16	Wisconsin		18-11-1	238	19
17	Boston College		18-14-4	223	14
18	Air Force		22- 9-5	125	17
19	St. Cloud State		15-16-1	80	18
20	St. Lawrence		16-11-7	66	20
Others receiving votes: Omaha 57, Bemidji State 45, Canisius 36, 
Quinnipiac 32, Minnesota State 8, Michigan Tech 7, Northeastern 3.

USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men's College Hockey Poll
February 27, 2017
	Team	              Points (First) Last Poll	Record
1	University of Denver	503	(28)	1	24-6-4
T2	Harvard University	462	(3)	3	22-5-2
T2	Univer Minnesota Duluth	462	(3)	2	20-5-7
4	UMass Lowell	        386		7	22-9-3
5	University of Minnesota	380		4	21-9-2
6	Boston University	327		5	21-10-3
7	Union College	        300		8	23-8-3
8	Western Michigan Univer	295		6	19-8-5
9	Cornell University	221		9	18-6-5
10	Penn State University	188		11	20-8-2
11	Providence College	183		10	20-9-5
12	University of Notre Dame141		14	19-10-5
13	Ohio State University	94		12	17-9-6
14	University of Wisconsin	39		NR	18-11-1
15	University North Dakota	33		15	16-14-3
Others receiving votes: Boston College 32, University of Vermont 16, 
St. Cloud State University 10, St. Lawrence University 4, United States Air Force Academy 4.

USCHO.com Division I Women's Poll
February 27, 2017
	Team	      (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Wisconsin	(15)	29- 2-4	150	1
2	Minnesota-Duluth	24- 5-5	134	2
3	Clarkson		27- 4-5	118	3
4	St. Lawrence		26- 4-4	101	5
5	Minnesota		25- 6-5	96	4
6	Boston College		25- 5-5	76	6
7	Cornell		        19- 7-5	59	7
8	Princeton		20- 9-3	40	8
9	Robert Morris		22- 4-6	34	9
10	Quinnipiac		21-10-6	9	10
Others receiving votes: Boston University 4, Northeastern 4.

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

BearLover

scoop85
Geez, I just checked CHN's probability matrix and they have us at a 98% chance of making the NCAA's. While I like that number, I'm still uptight about it. I'll feel much better if we win our QF series in 2 straight.

The probability matrix, as I've argued before, overvalues the chances of a stronger team beating a weaker team. For instance, look at Harvard: the model gives them a 45% chance of winning the ECAC tournament. In a tournament with (functionally) eight teams, including two other top ten teams, one team being almost even money to win the whole thing in a game as random as hockey feels wrong. I believe this to be true even given the 2/3 structure of the first round reducing randomness as well as the fact that Harvard is clearly one of the top teams in the country. Cornell twice this year nearly beat Harvard; Union beat them once. RPI beat Harvard. If this were basketball, the probabilities in this matrix would seem much more reasonable.

I alluded to this earlier: The probability matrix isn't the one doing the overvaluing, it's KRACH. All the probability matrix is doing is taking the probabilities from KRACH and running 20,000 random iterations of the season based on those probabilities.

Even money for an 8-team tournament is 12.5%. With Harvard at 45%, they are going to win 3.6 times more than the average team. If you put them head to head, Harvard's record is 3.6-1, or 78.2%. Harvard's actual winning percentage is 79.3%. (77.3% in conference). Those are pretty close.

USCHO.com Division I Men's Poll
March 06, 2017
	Team	      (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Denver	        (48)	26- 6-4	997	1
2	Harvard	        ( 1)	22- 5-2	937	2
3	Minnesota-Duluth( 1)	21- 6-7	902	3
4	Massachusetts-Lowell	22- 9-3	841	4
5	Minnesota		22-10-2	753	5
6	Union		        23- 8-3	739	6
7	Western Michigan	20- 9-5	702	8
8	Boston University	21-10-3	697	7
9	Cornell		        18- 6-5	593	9
10	Providence		22- 9-5	559	10
11	Penn State		21- 9-2	478	11
12	Notre Dame		19-10-5	462	12
13	Vermont		        20-11-5	374	14
14	North Dakota		18-14-3	336	15
15	Ohio State		18-10-6	291	13
16	Wisconsin		19-12-1	282	16
17	Boston College		18-14-4	174	17
18	Air Force		22- 9-5	133	18
19	St. Lawrence		16-11-7	66	20
20	St. Cloud State		16-17-1	55	19
Others receiving votes: Quinnipiac 37, Canisius 26, Bemidji State 22, 
Omaha 18, Michigan Tech 10, Minnesota State 9, Northeastern 7.

USA Today/USA Hockey Magazine Men's College Hockey Poll
March 6, 2017
	Team	             Points  (First) Last Poll	Record
1	University of Denver	509	(33)	1	26-6-4
2	Harvard University	463	(1)	T2	22-5-2
3	Univer Minnesota Duluth	447		T2	21-6-7
4	UMass Lowell	        389		4	22-9-3
5	University of Minnesota	353		5	22-10-2
6	Boston University	325		6	21-10-3
7	Union College	        310		7	23-8-3
8	Western Michigan Univer	309		8	20-9-5
9	Cornell University	223		9	18-6-5
10	Providence College	188		11	22-9-5
11	Penn State University	182		10	21-9-2
12	University Notre Dame	134		12	19-10-5
13	University North Dakota	72		15	18-14-3
14	University of Vermont	58		NR	20-11-5
15	Ohio State University	54		13	18-10-6
Others receiving votes: University of Wisconsin 39, Boston College 15, 
St. Lawrence University 6, United States Air Force Academy 4.

Men’s Division I PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	       PWR	W-L-T  Win % Win % Rank	RPI	RPI Rank
1	Denver	        59	26-6-4	.7778	2	.6067	1
2	Minnesota-Duluth58	21-6-7	.7206	3t	.5972	2
3	Harvard	        57	22-5-2	.7931	1	.5875*	3
4	Western Michigan56	20-9-5	.6618	11t	.5721	4
5	Minnesota	55	22-10-2	.6765	10	.5715*	5
6	Mass-Lowell	54	22-9-3	.6912	6	.5618	6
7	Boston Univer   53	21-10-3	.6618	11t	.5615	7
8	Union	        52	23-8-3	.7206	3t	.5590*	8
9	Penn State	51	21-9-2	.6875	7	.5554*	9
10	Cornell	        49	18-6-5	.7069	5	.5519	11
11t	Providence	48	22-9-5	.6806	8t	.5552	10
11t	North Dakota	48	18-14-3	.5571	26	.5473	12
13t	Wisconsin	47	19-12-1	.6094	20	.5456	13
13t	Notre Dame	47	19-10-5	.6324	14	.5453	14
15	Vermont	        45	20-11-5	.6250	15t	.5406	15
16	Air Force	44	22-9-5	.6806	8t	.5388	16
17	Ohio State	43	18-10-6	.6176	17t	.5377	17
18t	St. Cloud State	42	16-17-1	.4853	35	.5371	18
18t	Boston College	42	18-14-4	.5556	27	.5345	19

KRACH: Division I Men

Rank	Team	       Rating	RRWP Win % Rk	W-L-T	Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Denver	        599.1	.8453	2	26-6-4	0.7778	3.500	6	178.7
2	Minnesota-Duluth489.9	.8181	3t	21-6-7	0.7206	2.579	3	196.0
3	Harvard	        426.7	.7974	1	22-5-2	0.7931	3.833	22	118.0
4	Western Michigan328.1	.7538	11t	20-9-5	0.6618	1.957	8	171.2
5	Boston Univer	297.5	.7361	11t	21-10-3	0.6618	1.957	9	155.2
6	Mass-Lowell	294.8	.7344	6	22-9-3	0.6912	2.238	12	135.1
7	Minnesota	284.1	.7275	10	22-10-2	0.6765	2.091	11	139.0
8	Union	        262.3	.7122	3t	23-8-3	0.7206	2.579	33	104.9
9	Providence	257.4	.7085	8t	22-9-5	0.6806	2.130	20	123.5
10	Cornell	        253.1	.7053	5	18-6-5	0.7069	2.412	27	108.5
11	Penn State	246.0	.6997	7	21-9-2	0.6875	2.200	25	114.8
12	North Dakota	231.3	.6873	26	18-14-3	0.5571	1.258	4	185.1
13	Notre Dame	227.5	.6838	14	19-10-5	0.6324	1.720	13	134.4
14	Vermont	        216.1	.6733	15t	20-11-5	0.6250	1.667	15	131.5
15	Wisconsin	202.1	.6593	20	19-12-1	0.6094	1.560	16	131.4
16	Omaha	        185.5	.6409	32	16-15-5	0.5139	1.057	7	175.7
17	Boston College	185.1	.6405	27	18-14-4	0.5556	1.250	10	149.0
18	St. Cloud State	173.4	.6262	35	16-17-1	0.4853	0.943	5	183.6
19	Ohio State	168.9	.6204	17t	18-10-6	0.6176	1.615	31	106.1

USCHO.com Division I Women's Poll
March 06, 2017
	Team	     (First)	Record	Points	Last Poll
1	Wisconsin	(15)	31- 2-4	150	1
2	Clarkson		29- 4-5	129	3
3	Minnesota-Duluth	25- 6-5	125	2
4	Boston College		27- 5-5	98	6
5	Minnesota		25- 7-5	87	5
6	St. Lawrence		26- 5-4	84	4
7	Cornell		        20- 8-5	61	7
8	Robert Morris		24- 4-6	46	9
9	Princeton		20-10-3	26	8
10	Northeastern		22-12-3	17	NR
Others receiving votes: Quinnipiac 2.

Women’s National Collegiate PairWise Rankings

Rank	Team	        PWR	W-L-T	Win % Win % Rank RPI	RPI Rank
1	Wisconsin	35	31-2-4	.8919	2	.6670*	2
2	Clarkson	34	29-4-5	.8289	3	.6226*	3
3	Minnesota-Duluth33	25-6-5	.7639	7	.6130*	4
4	Boston College	32	27-5-5	.7973	5	.6055*	5
5	St. Lawrence	31	26-5-4	.8000	4	.6047*	6
6	Minnesota	30	25-7-5	.7432	8	.5969*	7
7	Cornell	        29	20-8-5	.6818	9	.5733*	8
8	Robert Morris	28	24-4-6	.7941	6	.5586*	9
9	Princeton	27	20-10-3	.6515	11	.5539*	10

KRACH: National Collegiate Women

Rank	Team	       Rating	RRWP  Win % Rk	W-L-T	Win % Win Ratio	SOS Rk	SOS
1	Wisconsin	1837.	.9356	1	31-2-4	0.8919	8.250	2	246.8
2	Minnesota-Duluth780.5	.8644	6	25-6-5	0.7639	3.235	1	250.9
3	Clarkson	708.0	.8535	2	29-4-5	0.8289	4.846	7	154.9
4	Minnesota	579.3	.8289	7	25-7-5	0.7432	2.895	3	206.9
5	St. Lawrence	483.6	.8043	3	26-5-4	0.8000	4.000	10	127.3
6	Boston College	460.6	.7972	4	27-5-5	0.7973	3.933	11	122.8
7	Cornell	        302.0	.7289	8	20-8-5	0.6818	2.143	8	144.4
8	Princeton	207.4	.6575	10	20-10-3	0.6515	1.870	17	113.1
9	Robert Morris	198.7	.6489	5	24-4-6	0.7941	3.857	33	54.20

Read more: [www.uscho.com]

KGR11
I alluded to this earlier: The probability matrix isn't the one doing the overvaluing, it's KRACH. All the probability matrix is doing is taking the probabilities from KRACH and running 20,000 random iterations of the season based on those probabilities.

Even money for an 8-team tournament is 12.5%. With Harvard at 45%, they are going to win 3.6 times more than the average team. If you put them head to head, Harvard's record is 3.6-1, or 78.2%. Harvard's actual winning percentage is 79.3%. (77.3% in conference). Those are pretty close.

If someone had a better way to "randomly" distribute wins in a simulation, I am all ears.

After the Friday loss, at 11 pm we're 13 in PWR.

Trotsky
After the Friday loss, at 11 pm we're 13 in PWR.

We were at 14 right after the game, so I'll take it.

Pending other action, the win tonight didn't budge us out of 13th in the Pairwise.

EDIT: As of 10:03pm, other action has moved us up to 12th. (Yes, I did verify our record had been updated when we were still 13th.)

I don't know if we'd have to win again in Lake Placid to preserve the lead but if we win tomorrow we almost certainly flip the comparison with Providence. We're pnly .0007 behind the Friars in RPI (for that matter we're .0026 behind NoDak and .0028 behind the Irish). Losing tomorrow could certainly drop us behind Penn State, since we're only .0016 ahead.

*Edited to show end-of-night RPI.

up to 11.. we need to win tomorrow , i think PSU loses next week so its hit or miss who would stay on top.

upprdeck
up to 11.. we need to win tomorrow , i think PSU loses next week so its hit or miss who would stay on top.

USCHO shows us as "tied" for 11th with Providence, but our RPI is still behind Providence's. CHN's Pairwise script is down, so I can't check whether it still shows us at 12th, but I think they just display differently and we're effectively 12th in both.

EDIT: Yup, CHN's back up and shows us 12th with the same data.

Now we're alone in 12th anyway, as Providence and NoDak are now "tied" for 10th.

It'll settle down soon.

Beeeej
Now we're alone in 12th anyway, as Providence and NoDak are now "tied" for 10th.

It'll settle down soon.

8 days at most.

ugarte
I don't know if we'd have to win again in Lake Placid to preserve the lead but if we win tomorrow we almost certainly flip the comparison with Providence. We're pnly .0007 behind the Friars in RPI (for that matter we're .0026 behind NoDak and .0028 behind the Irish). Losing tomorrow could certainly drop us behind Penn State, since we're only .0016 ahead.

*Edited to show end-of-night RPI.

As predicted, Cornell (for the moment) flips the Providence comparison and is alone in 11th. Trails ND and ND by .0001 in RPI! I wonder if our RPI can move enough after SLU/QU to move us ahead (for the moment).