Bracketology Starts

[marty]

Cornell needs to start "hosting" Albany regionals, whatever that bullsh-t entails.  Ideally hosting would be banned, but while we still have this stupid system we might as well use it.

Except that Albany was most recently dismissed as a site by three NCAA.  The good news is that the facility was upgraded this year.  Anyone that wants to check it out can attend the Mayor's Cup this Saturday.  Onion vs RIP.

[Weder]

Cornell needs to start "hosting" Albany regionals, whatever that bullsh-t entails.  Ideally hosting would be banned, but while we still have this stupid system we might as well use it.

What are the criteria for a host city? There's an AHL rink and lots of hotels in Syracuse, Rochester, etc.

Elmira? Binghamton?

Looks like the arena needs to seat 5,000 and be "modern," and there should be six "full-service" hotels nearby.

[Swampy]

Today on USCHO, bracketology has us in Bridgeport playing BC, with Minny D and tOSU in the other game.

Sorry, I misread the date on Jim's post above.

[upprdeck]

oncenter seats 6100+

bigger issue that the cornell Ath Dept barely has time to even promote local events let along a big event.

how many people actually used the free food coupons they handed out after the game last week?  coupons that had a 2 day life.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

It's all wrong.  BC leading Hockey East is just a way to rationalize having another eastern team in the bracketology.  And with BC in the bracketology, it shifts us into New England on the justification of attendance.

[Dafatone]

I'd think the #2 overall seed should get a team that has to travel a bit more. But attendance and whatnot.

[Swampy]

It's all wrong.  BC leading Hockey East is just a way to rationalize having another eastern team in the bracketology.  And with BC in the bracketology, it shifts us into New England on the justification of attendance.

Because current within-league standing depends partly on how many games teams have played, the methodology uses the current winning % in the league to guesstimate which team wins the league's eventual automatic bid. In this case, BC is both in first place and has the highest winning % (75.0%)¹. Northeastern and Providence, the other two Hockey East teams in this week's brackets, are included because of their standing in the pairwise.

An obvious, but perhaps unavoidable, weakness of this method concerns upsets over high-ranking favorite in conference championships. The six leagues each have an auto-bid, so ten of the 16 are selected at large. But say an underdog wins a conference championship, then one of the previous favorites might bump a weaker team. E.g., BC is currently tied for 17th in the pairwise, so if the conference championship were this weekend, BC would have to win it to be included in the NCAA. If Providence (currently tied for 9th) or Northeastern (currently 13) were to win, then HE would get only 2 bids. If a team other than these two or BC (e.g., BU) were to win, then HE would still get 3 bids.

In terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's. Using today's data, the other four teams will make the tournament no matter what, because they are all in the top 10 of the pairwise. But if, say, Providence were to win the HE championship and teams outside the top 14 in pairwise win the conference championships in the B1G, ECAC, NCAC, and WCHA, this would add 4 auto-bids to the mix and bump Northeastern out of the tourney. HE would then get only one bid: Providence, attendance be damned.

¹USCHO labels the column "Win %" but actually reports decimal proportions. Here I've written the number as a percentage to be consistent.

²Numbers in parentheses are ranks in the pairwise. A number followed by "t" indicates the team is tied with one or more other teams.

[Beeeej]

In terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

[Swampy]

In terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

You are correct.

I assumed the word "current" in my first sentence made this clear: everything is based on data available today and as if the season ended today. Obviously the assumption was wrong.

[Beeeej]

In terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

You are correct.

I assumed the word "current" in my first sentence made this clear: everything is based on data available today and as if the season ended today. Obviously the assumption was wrong.

It was actually the word "current" that made me parse the next sentence the way I did. :-) Doesn't matter, we agree on what the reality is.

[Jeff Hopkins '82]

In terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

You are correct.

I assumed the word "current" in my first sentence made this clear: everything is based on data available today and as if the season ended today. Obviously the assumption was wrong.

It was actually the word "current" that made me parse the next sentence the way I did. :-) Doesn't matter, we agree on what the reality is.

I understand the basis.  I just don't believe it will be worth worrying about, because I don't believe BC will be there by the end.

[Jim Hyla]

I'l post it all later, but almost no movement in this week's picks for the 2018 NCAA tournament.

We remain in Bridgeport against BC.

[andyw2100]

We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

[KenP]

We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

if we win out we are guaranteed #3 or better.

[Jim Hyla]

This week's brackets

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
11 Minnesota vs. 8 Omaha

East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
10 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Minnesota State

West Regional (Sioux Falls):
14 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Ohio State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Western Michigan vs. 4 Clarkson
9 Providence vs. 5 Denver

Conference breakdowns

NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

This week's movement:

Out: None

In: None