Wrestling 2025-26

Started by ugarte, November 04, 2025, 01:42:56 AM

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ugarte

#45
Updated with the latest Coaches Rank and RPI. Additionally, the bids allocated to the conferences have been released and there weren't any surprises.
Quote from: ugarte on February 25, 2026, 12:02:12 AM                Flo WIN IM TOM AWN CWR WSt SHP CR   RPI
125: Greg D. NR NR NR NR NR NR 50 43 NR   43
133: Ferrara 17 17 13 15 14 12 18 21 16   14
141: Cornella 6 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6    5
149: Joy 4 3 3 4 2 2 3 2 3    1
157: Shapiro 2 4 2 1 1 3 1 2 3   xx
165: Rogers NR NR NR NR NR NR 66 33 xx   xx
174: Ruiz 2 2 2 2 5 2 2 4 2   xx
184: Cerchio  NR xx NR NR NR NR 50 17 xx   xx
197: Hanning NR NR NR NR NR NR 87 56 NR   47 
285: Davis 29 NR NR NR NR NR 48 33 NR   30



NCAA automatic bids up for grabs at the ILT:
125: 2 Tricky and depends on seeding. If he faces anyone but McGowan before the final, Diakomihalis is capable of getting there through Motyka or Bah.
133: 2 Ferrara shouldn't have an issue but will get an at-large anyway.
141: 3 Ditto re: Cornella.
149: 3 Ditto re: Joy
157: 4 Ditto re: Shapiro.
165: 3 Rogers is going to be the 6 seed out of 6. I don't see a path.
174: 2 See above, re: ditto, re: Ruiz.
184: 1 Not out of reach for Cerchio to beat Columbia's Curtis but I wouldn't assume it. Hansen was winning when he got injured. EDIT: Columbia's Ayzerov returned from injury and replaced Curtis in their ILT lineup. This is a tougher opponent for Cerchio imo and I'm much less optimistic now.
197: 1 Brown's Reall is good. I don't see this happening given Hanning's year.
285: 2 Davis has beaten both Semenenko and Mueller in the past. Doable, but this hasn't been his year. He'll only need to beat one of them to reach the final.

ugarte

#46
The wrestling ILT is Sunday, starting at 10am at Columbia in the basketball gym (with only one side of the stands open). Tickets still available but the Cornell section (back of H) and Columbia section (front of H) are sold out.

Also, the All-Ivy teams were announced. Meyer Shapiro named Wrestler of the Year; Jaxon Joy, Rookie of the Year. First team for the two of them, as well as Vince Cornella and Simon Ruiz. Ferrara and Cerchio are second team. Cy Kruse gets HM, though he is not even our starter.

In another update, Columbia did not actually put Ayzerov in the ILT lineup. I suspect that they submitted Ayzerov's name for the last poll/RPI in order to have him receive a qualifying ranking. To get an AQ allocation for the conference, you need two of three on CR/RPI/Win% over .700; he didn't have a good enough record but DID have the RPI and reputation. After the polls came out, Columbia probably held a wrestle-off and Curtis earned the start on the mat.  Because Curtis has high enough RPI and record, he retains the bid for the conference as a replacement, which wouldn't have been true in reverse.

It barely makes a difference, since the Ivies are a one-bid conference at 184 but it matters a little, particularly for Cerchio (or Curtis himself). After the AQs are earned, the formula for at-large bids includes "one place outside of an allocated spot" - so second place will get that criteria. ON THE OTHER HAND, if the conference only has an automatic bid for the winner - one they get regardless of qualifying wrestlers - second place isn't worth anything. Cerchio has a slim chance of receiving an at-large bid if he finishes in second place. Actually, very slim, and I hope he gets moved to the third seed. At 5-0, it's the only way he'll get an eighth match under his belt without a devastating loss in the semis. Curtis probably still makes the tournament as at-large with a loss to Cerchio, though.

ugarte

#47
After some time to unwind, thoughts from top to bottom:

125: Greg Diakomihalis finished in 4th at 2-2 with WBF in both of his wins. Alas, this was a two-bid weight class, so it all came down to his rematch with Motyka in the semis. In the dual, he lost 1-0. Unlike the first match, there was a lot more scoring attempted, but for naught. 1-1 heading to SV. Both nearly scored, with GD looking like he had it near the end. In SV, GD took a surprisingly ill-advised shot, overextended and got countered. The third-place match was just a formality for GD, since he wouldn't have been eligible for an at-large. Bah, on the other hand is technically eligible but unlikely. He has a win over Motkya and a third-place finish.

133: Tyler Ferrara had a great tournament, going 2-0 and taking home his first Ivy title. He won a close match against Evan Gursoy - a Columbia freshman that I think will keep improving - and then winning his rematch with Mougalian in the final by MD, 12-2. Mougalian had a big knee brace on and the Penn fans I was sitting with (long story) said that he wasn't the same since getting hurt. No doubt, as he won a 2-0 slog with Rivera in the semis and didn't attack well in either match.

141: Vince Cornella went 2-0 and won his second Ivy title. He took it easy, coasting to a 14-3 MD in the opening round instead of pushing for a tech and 5-3 over 2x AA Composto in the final, playing defense in the third. 3-0 vs Composto this year.

149: Jaxon Joy went 2-0 and won his first Ivy title. He also didn't push too hard. He couldn't really help but tech the Harvard kid in the opening round, but he mostly played defense and beat Wasilewski 2-0.

157: Meyer Shapiro, what the hell!? Easy tech over Kai Owen in the first round then a sleepwalk against Swisher, giving up the only two TDs of the match. No bueno and it's going to hurt his seed in a very deep 157.

165: Benny Rogers, like Diakomihalis, had to get to the finals for a chance at a bid. Also, like Diakomihalis, he went 2-2, dominated in both of his wins, had a hearbreaking close loss in his semifinal match. Unlike Diakomihalis, 2-2 was a surprisingly good outcome. Rogers reversed a major decision by beating Seefeldt in the opening round in SV, shocking the gym. In his semifinal match, he appeared to have taken an 8-6 lead with takedown at the end of the second period plus back points. I've watched the review a couple of times and it the NF2 count probably wouldn't get awarded if it hadn't been, but reversing the call was insane. Clear :02 on the clock when he starts the count. Alas, that changed the score to 6-6, with Whalen sitting on 1:09 RT. Whalen avoided a second stall warning in the third but also took no risks and Rogers lost 7-6. Hard to say what would have happened if Whalen had to press the action in the third, but that was a shitty way to lose. After losing the 3/5 match, he dominated Cangro to take 5th. A nice tournament for a guy who will probably get squeezed out of the lineup next year but I suspect the review still stings.

174: Simon Ruiz won his second straight ILT. Dominating tech fall in the semis then an 8-2 win in the semis that was wilder than it looked. Ruiz had the only TD of the first period. In the second, shortly after Ruiz passed 1:00 RT, Fine hit a nice switch for a reversal. Fine wiped out the RT but made a mistake in the closing seconds. Ruiz got to his feet and turned to face Fine. Rather than relinquish control, Fine tried to hold on for the last few seconds of the period. Ruiz threw Fine to his back for a reversal and NF3. Exploding a 3-2 lead to 8-2. Fine couldn't break through Ruiz's defense in the third and that's how it ended.

184: Louie Cerchio went 1-1, losing in the ILT finals and ending his season. After a dominant 12-3 MD in the opening round, Cerchio wasn't able to avenge Curtis Hansen's injury at Joe Curtis's hands in the final. I heard from someone else at the tournament (with an insider connection to the team I will not reveal) that Curtis has injured four opponents this year, including Ayzerov in practice. WrestleStat backs up the other two competition injuries and I can tell you that he was working Cerchio's knee in a very dangerous way. Verdict? I reverse my judgment that he didn't hurt Hansen on purpose. He's at least reckless in how he wrestles. That said, Cerchio couldn't finish his shots and Curtis could. Without the extra match being the 3 seed would have given him, Cerchio finishes 6-1 and won't be eligible for an at-large AFAICT. No good wins, no eligibility for CR or RPI. 184 will be interesting next year with Dellagatta returning and Elijah Diakomihalis arriving. Less interesting if Ruiz outgrows 174.

197: Aiden Hanning went 2-2 and finished in 4th. The two wins were both dominant but the competion was weak. He wrestled better against Reall and Cosgrove than he had in the past but lost both. His results were in line with a season that placed him outside of the NQ tier of wrestlers. Hard to see how Jude Correa doesn't take his starting spot in the lineup next year.

285: Ashton Davis went 3-1 to finish third in a 2-bid conference and - like Davis and Rodgers before him - barely lost the all-or-nothing semifinal. Davis dominated the lower echelon of the conference, winning his opening match by tech fall, his consolation SF by fall in :18 and the third place match by fall in :58. In the semifinal, the match was tied 1-1 at :39 in the third when he was hit with a ticky-tack stalling call. This came back to bite him when Mueller was backing him out as the clock was winding down. Another stall call with under :10 would cost him the match, so he fought to stay in-bounds, but it left him vulnerable. Mueller took him down straight to his back for a late 7 point move and an 8-1 win. Davis had a rough season but tbh I think he's a lot more likely to be the starter next year than a lot of people think. Nothing from Dellagatta's year at SCRTC indicates to me that he's a sure-thing improvement.

In the end, Cornell ran away with the team title. Five wrestlers received automatic bids, four wrestlers won titles, every wrestler won at least one match and nobody finished in 6th.

Diakomihalis, Rogers, Cerchio and Hanning don't appear to be eligible for an at-large bid. Davis is technically eligible (win over a qualified wrestler and third place in a 2-bid weight) but a very long shot.

Final scores:
Cornell   132.5
Columbia  118
Penn      116.5
Princeton  85
Brown      78
Harvard    70

ugarte

No surprise; Davis didn't get an at-large bid. 5 to NCAAs. Seeds won't be out for a bit.

Ivy bid count(Ivy champs):
Columbia: 7(3)
Penn: 6(1)
Cornell: 5(4)
Princeton: 5(1)
Brown: 3(1)
Harvard: 1(0)

Really great showing from the Lions and Quakers. Cornell is still projected for a much higher place at the national tournament because our top guys are projected to rack up bonus and placement points.

ugarte

Brackets are out.

133: [11] Ferrara
141: [6] Cornella
149: [2] Joy
157: [3] Shapiro
174: [2] Ruiz

Ruiz has a really tough path for a 2 seed imo. A first round opponent who gave him a scare earlier in the season, a returning all-american likely in the second round, a guy who beat him last year as a potential QF opponent - and that's before he gets to the guys who are considered dangerous.  Meanwhile, Joy seems to have a glide path to the final. Most of the danger is on the other side of the bracket and the 3 seed is Penn's Wasilewski, who he has beaten twice this year.

The other guys have about the paths you'd expect from their seeds. A lot of potential second round rematches with Ivy guys which have typically gone well for us. The most interesting are rematches of the ILT finals for Shapiro in the QF and Cornella in the second round.

ugarte

This is where everyone thinks everyone stands heading into the tournament. There is an official last CR and I used the WrestleStat approximation for RPI.

                Flo WIN* IM TOM AWN CWR WSt SHP CR   RPI   Seed
125: Greg D. NR xx NR NR NR NR 34 40 NR   47
133: Ferrara 12 xx 10 12 10 10 14 17 11    7    11
141: Cornella 6 xx 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    6     6
149: Joy 2 xx 2 2 2 2 3 2 2    1     2
157: Shapiro 6 xx 3 3 3 5 1 4 5    2     3
165: Rogers NR xx NR NR NR NR 57 36 NR   36^
174: Ruiz 2 xx 2 2 2 2 2 5 2    2     2
184: Cerchio  NR xx NR NR NR NR 47 21 xx   21^
197: Hanning NR xx NR NR NR NR 89 53 NR   52
285: Davis 27 xx NR NR NR NR 45 32 32   33
TEAM NCAA: 8 xx 7 7 -- 7 6 7 --   --

* I doubt WIN is going to put out a post-conference ranking if they don't have it out yet.
^ Cerchio and Rogers don't qualify for an official RPI, but that's where they'd be.