Polls and NPI 2026

[andyw2100]

if you get WMU to lose to CC in 2 games there is a path for Cornell to 4th

CC got eliminated last weekend

That explains why the CHN tool I quoted numbers from a couple of days ago had us at 0% chance of higher than fifth.

[Trotsky]

11 after the Friday loss.

[BearLover]

At the moment it's looking like we are going to need one of Dartmouth, Providence, or not-OSU to win their conference.

[stereax]

At the moment it's looking like we are going to need one of Dartmouth, Providence, or not-OSU to win their conference.

Or Cornell, y'know

[ugarte]

At the moment it's looking like we are going to need one of Dartmouth, Providence, or not-OSU to win their conference.

Does Q not work? (nvm you mean that q lost game 1 also)

[BearLover]

At the moment it's looking like we are going to need one of Dartmouth, Providence, or not-OSU to win their conference.

Does Q not work?

It does but they lost tonight so they're an underdog to make it to the next round

But yeah, if they (or we, of course) win the ECAC then we're in

[stereax]

For the curious -

Losing today drops us to 54.53 in the NPI and puts us in 12th.

That means that we would need at least 2 conferences to autobid from the top 16.

NCHC will, all the remaining teams are top 16. B10 almost certainly will, unless OSU makes a miracle run. CCHA, from all my sims, looks like a one-bid conference (either Augustana takes the auto in top 16 or they slide out and whoever does autos in). AHA we know is autobid only. HEA and ECAC, who tf knows.

So even IF we get swept. We should still make it. Unless the hockey gods truly conspire against us.

As you were, LGR, and please make me have to come to Lynah at 4 pm on a Sunday. And then sort out bussing to Albany on a Thursday. 💜

[BearLover]

For the curious -

Losing today drops us to 54.53 in the NPI and puts us in 12th.

That means that we would need at least 2 conferences to autobid from the top 16.

NCHC will, all the remaining teams are top 16. B10 almost certainly will, unless OSU makes a miracle run. CCHA, from all my sims, looks like a one-bid conference (either Augustana takes the auto in top 16 or they slide out and whoever does autos in). AHA we know is autobid only. HEA and ECAC, who tf knows.

So even IF we get swept. We should still make it. Unless the hockey gods truly conspire against us.

As you were, LGR, and please make me have to come to Lynah at 4 pm on a Sunday. And then sort out bussing to Albany on a Thursday. 💜

The only way we can miss is via autobids. Nobody can pass us in NPI to knock us out; only autobids can. So AFAICT the only ways we can miss are
1. OSU winning the B10 [unlikely, maybe 15% chance], plus
2. someone other than Dartmouth/Quinnipiac winning the ECAC [somewhat likely at this point, given Q lost last night], plus
3. someone other than Providence winning HE [likely, giving they need to win 3 games in a row]

If we win the next two against Harvard we can still miss under the above scenario, if we then lose in the semis.

We clinch the NCAAs if OSU loses to MSU today. 

[stereax]

For the curious -

Losing today drops us to 54.53 in the NPI and puts us in 12th.

That means that we would need at least 2 conferences to autobid from the top 16.

NCHC will, all the remaining teams are top 16. B10 almost certainly will, unless OSU makes a miracle run. CCHA, from all my sims, looks like a one-bid conference (either Augustana takes the auto in top 16 or they slide out and whoever does autos in). AHA we know is autobid only. HEA and ECAC, who tf knows.

So even IF we get swept. We should still make it. Unless the hockey gods truly conspire against us.

As you were, LGR, and please make me have to come to Lynah at 4 pm on a Sunday. And then sort out bussing to Albany on a Thursday. 💜

The only way we can miss is via autobids. Nobody can pass us in NPI to knock us out; only autobids can. So AFAICT the only ways we can miss are
1. OSU winning the B10 [unlikely, maybe 15% chance], plus
2. someone other than Dartmouth/Quinnipiac winning the ECAC [somewhat likely at this point, given Q lost last night], plus
3. someone other than Providence winning HE [likely, giving they need to win 3 games in a row]

If we win the next two against Harvard we can still miss under the above scenario, if we then lose in the semis.

We clinch the NCAAs if OSU loses to MSU today. 

so what you're telling me is we gotta root for trey augustine