tonight's ecac line

[pat]

Since my attempt to cram as many puns into two sentences as I could the other night went unnoticed (who starts sentences with "See, men"?), I thought I'd post something slightly more interesting. Here's the line on tonight's ECAC games:

                               odds  spread  over/under

Harvard     over RENSSELAER     7:1    -2       5½
Brown       over UNION         even     0       5
Clarkson    over PRINCETON      4:1    -2       5½
YALE        over St. Lawrence   3:1    -1½      7½
CORNELL     over Dartmouth      4:1    -3       6½
Vermont     over COLGATE        2:1    -½       6

Note: these are compiled from statistically-determined rankings (krach and chodr). I would not recommend using them to open your own book. In fact, if someone offers you Dartmouth and 3 points or RPI over Brown in the Big Red Freakout, I'd say take it. The rest of the week's schedule is off http://gneiss.geo.cornell.edu/odds/ .

To apply this to another thread, Vermont is statistically a better opponent than Colgate was. The odds for the Colgate win last week were 17:1; tomorrow's game against Vermont is at 10:1.

[Greg Berge]

That's cool.  Can you explain the basics of how you came up with the odds so I don't have to learn perl (although I really should learn perl and maybe that'd be motivation)?

[pat]

The odds are just the KRACH ratings of the favorite divided by the underdog. The routine rounds, except it allows for reasonable X:2 and X:3 values. The KRACH on USCHO doesn't include any information about home ice advantage, so neither does this. Craig Powers's calculation does (home team win percentage is +0.0477 predicted), but is two weeks behind.

[marty]

So can we place our bets on channel #lynah with paypal? ::nut::

[jeh25]

Ooooohhh! Now that's a damn good idea....

[kingpin248]

The ECAC favorites go 4-1-1 against the CHODR spread tonight. (Vermont failed to cover; Harvard pushed.)