Out of Conference games

[KeithK]

Using the current KRACH for probabilities, Cornell (227.4) should beat Princeton (58.5) about 4 out of 5 times.  Princeton should beat Robert Morris (24.46) about 7 out of 10 times.  So neither outcome (Princeton beating us or losing to RMU) is that unlikely, based onthe model.

[Beeeej]

[quote KeithK]Using the current KRACH for probabilities, Cornell (227.4) should beat Princeton (58.5) about 4 out of 5 times.  Princeton should beat Robert Morris (24.46) about 7 out of 10 times.  So neither outcome (Princeton beating us or losing to RMU) is that unlikely, based onthe model.[/quote]

Neither outcome on its own is that unusual, but based on those ratings and probabilities, both outcomes together should only happen about 3 out of 50 times.

Beeeej

[KeithK]

Yes.  But 6% isn't that small of a chance (16:1).

[Beeeej]

[quote KeithK]Yes.  But 6% isn't that small of a chance (16:1).[/quote]

Tell that to someone given a 6% chance of survival.

Okay, I know, it's just hockey.  But still, 6% is pretty damn small for most things.  It's certainly unlikely enough that it made most of us sit up and say, "Whoa."

Beeeej

[KeithK]

[q]Tell that to someone given a 6% chance of survival.[/q]Engineer to management: "This only has a 6% chance of failing. That's pretty small, so we don't need to worry about it."  Manager  tears the employee a new one.  So it's all about perspective.

[q]Okay, I know, it's just hockey. But still, 6% is pretty damn small for most things. It's certainly unlikely enough that it made most of us sit up and say, "Whoa."[/q]I see your point and don't disagree that it's a noteworthy event.  My point is really that I suspect that there are plenty of individual games in a hockey season where an unlikely result occurs.  Union tied Wisconsin last year.  I'm sure you can come up with lots of results that were around 6% likely.  Especially if you take pairs of games.

[jtwcornell91]

[quote KeithK]
[q]Okay, I know, it's just hockey. But still, 6% is pretty damn small for most things. It's certainly unlikely enough that it made most of us sit up and say, "Whoa."[/q]I see your point and don't disagree that it's a noteworthy event.  My point is really that I suspect that there are plenty of individual games in a hockey season where an unlikely result occurs.  Union tied Wisconsin last year.  I'm sure you can come up with lots of results that were around 6% likely.  Especially if you take pairs of games.[/quote]

Right, how many combinations of teams can you ask that about?  How many combinations of opponents and opponents' opponents has such a low probability that both upsets occur?

This is the curse of public perception in the face of a weak schedule.  You play 8 games against crappy teams that you should beat 7 times out of 8, but people remember the one you lost.  (E.g., some eejit on the USCHO board was claiming in 2003 that our loss to Colgate meant that we couldn't possibly be a top-five team.)

[Rita]

The February 3, 2006 "GET FUZZY" comic strip explains "Bucky Katt's" view on grammar. I apologize for adding to the thread drift, but I found this "Get Fuzzy" comic strip particularly amusing in light of the recent grammar discussion on ELF.

http://www.comics.com/comics/getfuzzy/index.html

[RatushnyFan]

Grammar Nazi/nazi humor.  :-D