We're a damn good ...

[Greg Berge]

I've also heard the team thinksthey have a shot at a bye if they can win the title.  Frankly, I think that's... improbable (being charitable here), but he I wouldn't complain...

[Erica]

Actually, I know the team isn't "scared." I was referring to some of the people on the forum. Maybe scared isn't the best word, but you know what I mean.

[Keith K]

I can come up with a number of entirely plausible scenarios that would put Cornell in the top 4 come next Sunday.  Josh found some as well.  Now if you believe the committee will award byes strictly by the numbers then it's very possible though admittedly not likely.

Aside from the obvious advantage to having a bye I would absolutely *love* to hear all of the howling from out west if Cornell and 2 HE schools were to get byes.

[min \'97]

I've done a little history checking on the TBRW's webite (thanks, Greg Berge) and here's what I found:

a) Since 1988, when the NCAA tourney expanded to 12 teams, ECAC RS winners who also captured the ECAC tournament crown were awarded byes in the first round (1990 Colgate, 1994 Harvard, 1999 Clarkson and 2000 SLU).  The notable exception was the 1991 Clarkson team.

b) Also since 1988, all ECAC RS winners made it to the NCAA tourney if they at least made it to the ECAC final four/five.  The 1992 Harvard and 2001 Clarkson teams were upset in their QF series, and thus were not invited to the NCAA tourney.

c) Point b is interesting/surprising because, from a historical point of view, the eventual finish of the RS winners in Placid does not seem to matter for the NCAA tourney selection. The 1998 Yale team went 0 for 2 in the tournament, but still got an at-large bid.

Having said so, I acknowledge the inductive logic used here, and the fact that I am overlooking so many other factors at work (i.e. PWR, strengh of schedule, strength of conference, poll position, team's overall record, rule changes, etc.). Nothing is ever certain given the subjective nature of the selection process.  But if this Cornell team goes 2-0 in Placid (let's all pray to that), then I think that a bye in the NCAA tourney is not that uncalled for if we only look at the precedents...   :-)

[Josh '99]

KeithK '93 wrote:

Aside from the obvious advantage to having a bye I would absolutely *love* to hear all of the howling from out west if Cornell and 2 HE schools were to get byes.

Wow, did you find a way for Cornell and UNH and BU (or Maine, I suppose) ALL to get byes?  Man, the western posters on USCHO would BITCH about that.

[jtwcornell91]

Also remember that from (I think) 1995 to 2000, all regular season champions were automatically given tournament bids (not technically auto-bids, but the difference is irrelevant) thanks to the "Colorado College Rule".

And from 1997 to 2000, anyone who won a RS and tournament title automatically got a bye.

[Keith K]

Assuming I didn't type in the games incorrectly, here's what I did:  Cornell beats RPI and then Clarkson, BU beats UNH in HEA. CC beats Minn in WCHA and UM over MSU in CCHA.  Pretty sure that left UNH, BU, Minn and Cornell as the top 4.  Cornell would then win comparisons with Denver and St. Cloud due to the TUC category.

Of course, this was using the manual script so I could've made a mistake and also the file of scores I used is at home and I'm not.

Like I said, if it could happen I would absolutely LOVE to see it.

[Josh '99]

KeithK '93 wrote:

Like I said, if it could happen I would absolutely LOVE to see it.

Except that then Cornell would probably wind up going west.  BU is the host, so they have to stay east, and with UNH being #1 in PWR now and probably still being #1 at the end of your scenario, the committee would have a hard time sending them.

At lease, I GUESS that's the way it'd wind up working out.

[Keith K]

Yeah, we'd definitely end up as West #2 in the scenario I drew up.  Which isn't quite as nice as being an east bye but I'd take it.  And it would be great in term's of upsetting the westerners. :-D

[Greg Berge]

> Nothing is ever certain given the subjective nature of the selection process

It's really not at all subjective anymore.  Going by the PWR and then the seeding logic recreated in programs like John Whelan's, the field and even the seedings have been nearly perfectly predicted the last few years.

Historical trends in selection mean nothing.  If Cornell finishes in the top 4 in PWR, they'll get a bye, otherwise they will not.  If Cornell doesn't get an autobid and they finish close to the top 7 in PWR among other at large contenders, and they win the comparisons with the teams around them, they'll get a bid.  Otherwise, they will not.

> Wow, did you find a way for Cornell and UNH and BU (or Maine, I suppose) ALL to get byes?

That would be the funniest damn thing anyone has ever seen.  Good lord, everybody west of T-burg would be reaching for their shotguns.  Now I definitely have something to root for!  ;-)

[jtwcornell91]

Greg Berge wrote:

It's really not at all subjective anymore.  Going by the PWR and then the seeding logic recreated in programs like John Whelan's, the field and even the seedings have been nearly perfectly predicted the last few years.

Of course, they have always found a way to surprise at least me.  But not with respect to assignment of byes, which is the point here.