WTF Redux

[Lisa McGill \'97]

Not to revive the angst, but the hubby came up with this bit, which I thought was interesting:
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Due to lack of desire for actual work, I've used the KRACH ratings to
predict the chance each higher-seeded team has for victory in round 1.

   Cornell over MSU           68.0%
   BC over OSU                66.2%

   BU over Harvard            64.4%
   UNH over St. Cloud         69.8%


   Col. Coll. over Wayne St.  95.1%
   Maine over Michigan        55.6%

   Ferris St. over N. Dakota  48.4%
   Minnesota over Mercyhurst  97.6%

Granted this doesn't take home ice advantage into account, so the
Maine/Michigan duel is probably even, and Minnesota/Mercyhurst probably
strains up toward 99%.

  Now let's pretend they seeded 16 teams based only on KRACH, without regard
for region or interconference blah blah blah.

   Col. Coll. over OSU        75.9%
   Michigan over N. Dakota    51.4%

   Minnesota over Denver      66.5%
   BC over Providence         62.8%


   Cornell over Harvard       73.6%
   BU over Ferris St.         57.3%

   UNH over St. Cloud         69.8%
   Maine over MSU             59.2%

Aside from the near-bye reaped by Minnesota (rather than Cornell) in the real
pairings, the real pairings confer an advantage to BC, BU, OSU, Harvard,
Ferris St., and N. Dakota, while disadvantaging Cornell, Maine, MSU, and
Michigan. Colorado is unaffected if you consider admitting only 14 teams under
KRACH and giving first-round byes, and you assume a game against Wayne St. is
effectively a bye.

Notice that in the real tournament Cornell is playing a stronger team (#11 in
the KRACH ratings!) than they would have even in the fake tournament where
only the highest-quality teams are admitted. Also a tougher team than they had
to defeat to win the ECAC title.

[jkahn]

One step further.  The probability of reaching the Frozen Four using KRACH:
East:
Cornell  43.7%
Minn. St.  14.8%
BC  31.3%
OSU  10.2%

Northeast:
UNH  43.3%
St. Cloud  12.7%
BU  31.5%
Harvard  12.5%

Midwest:
CC  60.5%
Wayne St.  0.4%
Maine  23.0%
Mich.  16.1%

West:
Minn. 59.2%
Mercyh.  0.1%
FS  19.4%
UND  21.4%

If we were flipped with the #1 in other regionals, our probability in the Norteast would be 47.3%, the Midwest 58.5% and the West 65.2%.  So we are in the toughest spot of the four number ones for sure.  And Minnesota is in the easiest spot, and that doesn't even figure in the home advantage.

[jtwcornell91]

I've actually worked this out for all four rounds:

http://lists.maine.edu/cgi/wa?A2=ind0303&L=hockey-l&D=0&F=P&P=30931&F=

We have a worse chance than Minnesota of making the F4 but a better chance of winning the whole tournament since our better KRACH gives us improved odds of winning if we make it that far.

I also did the whole thing with KASA, which considers home ice advantage:

http://lists.maine.edu/cgi/wa?A2=ind0303&L=hockey-l&D=0&P=31044

Minnesota's odds don't get much better, but Michigan's do.