adam picks BC to win it all

[crodger1]

I was really happy to see Adam on there.  And he handled it very well.  Kudos.

We've been very lucky to have Grady and now Adam as the Voice of the Big Red.

[jtwcornell91]

Hmm, I've been meaning to do something like this (although with a straight calculation of the probabilities for the different outcomes rather than a Monte Carlo), and I'm a little surprised to see that Cornell's KRACH advantage over Minnesota is enough to more than make up for their harder road to the title.  I suspect Minny still has better odds of making the Frozen Four.

[marty]

And Adam not under a 30 second time constraint shows he's up to a thoughtful criticism of the committee:

http://www.uscho.com/news/2003/03/24_006604.php

[pat]

Here are the odds calculated straight from KRACH. My method did not recalculate KRACH after every round, but I'm gambling that that these games wouldn't have a tremendous effect this late in the season.

Team                      win   place    show
Colorado College          3:1     5:3     1:2        
Cornell                   6:1     3:1     1:2        
Minnesota                 6:1     5:2     1:4        
New Hampshire             7:1     3:1     2:5        
Boston College           12:1     5:1    even        
Boston University        14:1     6:1     3:4        
Maine                    16:1     7:1     3:1        
North Dakota             29:1    11:1     5:2        
Michigan                 30:1    13:1     4:1        
Ferris State             34:1    13:1     3:1        
MSU-Mankato              41:1    15:1     3:1        
St. Cloud State          68:1    22:1     3:1        
Harvard                  74:1    23:1     3:1        
Ohio State               89:1    27:1     4:1        
Wayne State           41590:1  3100:1   611:1        
Mercyhurst          1766618:1 48256:1  6904:1        

Show hypothesizes a consolation game.



Post Edited (03-26-03 00:44)

[jtwcornell91]

I've done round-by-round probability breakdowns using KRACH and KASA (KRACH with home ice effects) to predict the probabilities.  Here are links to the HOCKEY-L posts:

http://lists.maine.edu/cgi/wa?A2=ind0303&L=hockey-l&D=0&F=P&P=30931&F=
http://lists.maine.edu/cgi/wa?A2=ind0303&L=hockey-l&D=0&P=31044

It looks like the KRACH odds are consistent with Matt's Monte Carlo.