ELynah Forum

Soccer team opens the season with a 2-1 win at Cal Santa Barbara. That looks to be a quality win, the Gauchos (love that nickname) received votes in the last top 25 vote, enough to be an informal 28th.  Cornell had more shots and SOG.

I know there was a topic for the pre-season poll, but thought a more general topic was appropriate.

The season begins on Tuesday with a trip to Binghamton (okay, Vestal).  Pretty much everyone who played significant minutes the last time there was a Cornell basketball game (612 days ago, as Cornell sports information seems to like to say) is gone, so I have no earthly idea what to expect this year.  Only four guys who played regular minutes return.  Wing Jordon Jones who played himself into, and then out of, a starting spot as a Freshman, before missing the last half of the season with a injury; Dean Noll, who was the first guard off the bench; Kobe Dickson, who started the last six games after Boeheim was injured and averaged 10p-5R in that stretch; and rotational guard Greg Dolan.  Plus 11 guys who have never played a minute for Cornell. Some of those newcomers look intriguing, but this is basically a team reboot.

If the "possible starters" on the press notes is what the starting line-up looks like, it will be short.  Four guards and one forward with Jones, Dolan and Dickson starting along with VMI transfer Sarju Patel and Soph. Chris Manon.  Earl will likely be trying out a lot of combinations, but that possible starting line-up looks awfully small.

No idea what to expect, but the Ivies have really stratified into two tiers and I'd be happy if the guys were the best of the "have-nots," and some of the freshman and sophomores looked like solid building blocks, especially a couple of the bigs since Earl has six of them.  The first two games are at Bingo and Lafayette, neither of which is supposed to be good, so early wins are possible.

Over the weekend, the men knocked off Akron in OT.  That's the second win this season over a national semi-finalist from last year, which sounds like justification for their own thread.  Just don't look at Akron orMichigan State's record this year.  I swear they met in the final four last year and that Akron is perennial power in the sport.

Still, for a program that has managed 4 Ivy wins just twice since 1999, including last year, it is nice to see.

Quote from: ugarteProps to Cornell women's hoops for getting into the Ivy Tournament.

Thanks for bringing this up ugarte.  The women really deserve some attention.  They finished the season winning 5 of their last 8, even though it involved three Ivy road weekends.  They were overwhelmed at Harvard on Friday but then owned the fourth quarter of their play-in game at Dartmouth.  

The Yale Undergraduate Analytics Group has been doing weekly expectations for making the ILT.  In mid-February, they gave the women a 0.2% chance of making it.  That seems absurdly low, but that was the number.

The ILT match-up is versus Princeton who has dominated the Big Red lately (Cornell has one win in the last decade) but their last game was close.

It appears the regular starting rotation should all return next season.

Brian Earl's first year on the job starts with understandably low expectations as the Big Red was picked 7th in the pre-season media poll.  There are reasons to think this could be an interesting season.

The backcourt is the team's strength.  Sophomore Matt Morgan looks like an elite scorer.  He averaged nearly 19 points a game last season, shattering the school record for freshman scoring.  I'm not sure saying he'll leave Cornell as the school's all-time leading scorer qualifies as a hot take any more.  Senior Robert Hatter will be asked to run the point.  Robert is a puzzle in that he posts great stats but is really inefficient in doing so. Other guards likely to see the floor are: Senior Daryl Smith who is a very good all-around player, but not likely to shoot 60 percent from the field again; Senior JoJo Fallas who is a nice role player; and Sophomores Troy Whiteside and Joel Davis who both have potential, but need to polish their games. Whiteside had a 15 point game on the summer trip.

Cornell's problem last year was lack of production from the forwards.  Senior David Onuorah returns as the team's best rebounder and shotblocker, but he's never blossomed offensively.  It will be interesting to see if Earl can get him more involved.  Junior Jordan Abdur-Ra'oof started 25 games, but he will need to shoot better (31%) and rebound better (3 per game) if he wants to hold onto his job.

The player that was probably most excited about the coaching change was Sophomore forward Stone Gettings, the star recruit from last year's class.  Stone never found a role in BC's scheme, but he averaged 9 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists during the three games in Spain this Summer.  Plus, Donovan Wright is back and healthy and apparently played well during the Red-White scrimmage.  Cornell's team last season had a lot of issues, but they were arguably the worst rebounding team in the nation.  Wright and Gettings could help a lot there.

KenPom projects 11-17 and 5-9, which is a three way tie for sixth with Penn and Brown.  Personally, I think the Red could challenge for 4th because it is a top heavy league.  Princeton and Harvard are the class of the league by a wide margin, but after that, meh.  Yale lost 4 starters (but will be good), Columbia is completely rebooting, Brown is a mess and Dartmouth is starting over with a new head coach.  With a couple of breaks, a .500 season, appearance in the Ivy Tourney and a trip to a "pay to play" post-season event is possible.

Edit:  Sorry, I missed that a topic had already been started.

Chris's topic looked like it was focused on NCAA tix, so I thought a string dedicated to the season made sense.  For a team that returns so much talent, there are a lot of changes.  I think only one guy returns at his weight from last year.  

125 This going to be Dalton Macri (Fr.).  Dalton could be the next great CU lightweight, he's ranked and has yet to take the mat.

133 Three time All-American Nahshon Garrett (Sr.) moves up a weight.  Nahshon really struggled to make weight last year; he's going to be a contender for a title at this weight.

141 Mark Grey (Jr.) will move up to what is probably his natural weight.  He started at 141 last year, but dropped down when no other 133 pound guy stepped up.  If he's healthy, he could be very good -- but that has been a big problem.  Backing up Mark are Dylan Realbuto (So.) Rob's kid Will (Fr.) and several others.

149 Chris Villalonga has graduated as an All-American.  The guy to watch is Joey Galasso (Fr.) who looked great wrestling for the Finger Lakes club.  Taylor Simaz (Jr.) is likely the best upperclassman.  Early tournaments will settle this.  

157 National runner-up Brian Realbuto is up two weights, opening up this weight.  The plan seems to be to have Dylan Palacio (Jr.) drop down from 165.  Dylan is a two-time national qualifier and one of the most exciting wrestlers on the team (in the sense no one, even Dylan, knows what he will do next).  Chris Dowdy (Sr.) has been rock solid and gives the team depth, plus two freshman could earn starts (Jon Jay Chavez and Kyle Simaz).  But Dylan is the favorite.

165 Duke Pickett (Sr.) drops down from 174 for his final season. Duke will be pushed by a trio of freshman (Dillon Artigliere, Drew Garcia and Brandon Womack), but every time I've assumed someone would knock Duke out of the starting line-up, Duke has proved me wrong.  So, I'm not making that prediction any more.

174 Brian Realbuto (Jr.) makes the rare two weight class jump.  He's already ranked in the top 5.  Yes, he's that good.

184 Gabe Dean (Jr.).  The Bear is the best in the nation.  

197 Jace Bennett has graduated, so this weight is wide open.  Owen Scott (Jr.) seems to be the favorite, but Jacob Taylor (So.) earned starts at 174 last year and if Steve Congenie (Jr.) heals he could be in the mix.  There will be a lot of shuffling here in the early season.

285 Jeramy Sweany (Fr.) will almost certainly start as a freshman for the first semester.  National qualifier Jacob Aiken Phillips (Sr.) will then return for his final semester and the two will try to the right to start at the EIWA tournament.  

The team is a prohibitive favorite in the Ivies, but Lehigh will make a tenth straight EIWA title a challenge (Cornell is probably a very slight favorite right now).  If everyone stays healthy (won't happen, it never does, this is a brutal sport), 7.5 weights are set.  The season kind of opens with the Bearcat Open next weekend; most of the team will be there by "unattached" so that the tournament doesn't count toward the number of permissible dates.

Not much call for baseball talk in these parts, but a shout out to the Big Red for taking a 2-0 lead into the bottom of the 8th against #1 UVA.  The bullpen couldn't hold it, but a heck of a starting job by McAfee.

The Big Red will shoot for a Ninth straight EIWA title this Friday/Saturday but will have to do it in the belly of the beast (or at Lehigh if you want to be specific).  Ugarte, please feel to correct my mistakes, but here is where the team stands.

125 -- Nahshon Garrett remains one of the nation's best.  He'll be the top seed and a heavy favorite.  
133 -- It's been a rough season for Mark Grey.  He started at 141, but was asked to cut back to 133.  He'll be seeded 3rd or 4th and only the top 3 finishers at EIWA are guaranteed a spot at the NCAA, so his potential semi-final against Lehigh's Beckman or Drexel's DeVoy will be huge. (Grey could get a wild card slot, but who wants to wait for that?)
141 -- It looks like Dylan Realbuto has emerged as our guy at this weight.  He looked solid at Iowa and the EIWA will send 5 at this weight.  The problem is that Dylan will almost certainly be unseeded, so he could have a very tough path.  He'll be fun to watch though.
149 -- This is Chris Villalonga's last ride. CV is the defending champ, but lost to Penn's Cobb in sudden victory this season so the top seed is uncertain.  IMHO Chis is the best 149 pound wrestler in the league, but he'll have to prove it.
157 -- Brian Realbuto is fully back from his injury and seems to get better each week.  He'll be the top seed and a big favorite as he's 2-0 against the likely #2 seed (Lehigh's Minotti). Bear in mind Columbia's Scheidel upset him last year in the EIWA quarter-finals.
165 -- Dylan Palacio is also getting better with each week.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the top seed, which could set up a semi-final against former teammate Marshall Peppleman (now doing a graduate year at Lehigh).  Dylan has three wins against Pep this year and you know the old saying "that it is hard to beat a good wrestler four times in a season."  {not actually a saying.}
174 -- Duke Pickett remains off the radar, but has put together a very solid season.  He's 3-1 on the mat against the top challengers at this weight, but is coming off a 2-1 loss to Lehigh's Martinez.  The NCAA had no love for the EIWA at this weight, as only the finalists will be guaranteed NCAA bids. The top seed would help clear his path.  
184 -- A loaded weight at the EIWA.  But Gabe Dean is the best of the bunch.  His bad day in Vegas seems a lifetime ago.
197 -- The EIWA's top four at this weight are all ranked between 8 and 13.  On any given day Jace Bennett could beat all of them.  Or lose to all of them.  Jace is the defending champ.
285 -- The EIWA gets 5 heavyweight bids.  I'd love to see JAP get one of them, but it's not likely considering the season he's had.

The margin between Cornell and Lehigh is such that the Big Red will be favored for the team title, but could lose it on a bad day -- especially in Bethleham.  I'd love to qualify ten for the NCAA, of course, but six seem highly likely with two more (Grey and Duke) being very doable.  The last two (li'l Realbuto and JAP) will be tough.

The good news is Shonn Miller is back and looks healthy.  Shonn is a defensive force (rebounding, protecting the rim) who can single-handedly move the Big Red from horrific on defense (#350 of 351 last season if you believe Ken Pomeroy) to merely bad.  At bad you have a chance of staying in games you just didn't have when the other team was scoring 1.2 points per possession.

Ivy hoops online did a pretty good player-by-player breakdown:  http://ivyhoopsonline.com/2014/10/27/cornell-roster-preview-2014-15-edition/.  There is some talent on this team, but not enough unless this freshman class is truly special or the sophomores make significant jumps.

KenPom starts the Big Red out at #318 in the nation, which is last in the Ivys by a fairly wide margin.  His computer is projecting 8 wins and a 3-11 league record.  That's probably about right.  10/11 wins and 5-9 in the league is probably the best case scenario; worst case is around 5 wins and 2-12.  (It is hard not to win five games in a full d1 season).

I thought the plan was to start a new thread for the NCAA qualifing tournament; my apologies ugarte if that was wrong.

Overall this season has had many positive surprises and very few disappointing ones.  The Ivy win streak is now up to 63 duals (I think).  An unprecendented 8th consecutive EIWA title is going to be earned on the mats, but the Big Red is favored to win in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year.  The freshman on this team (Grey, Realbuto, Palacio, and Dean) have been outstanding.  

The pre-seeds have a distinctly Red color (final seeds may vary, but probably won't to any significant degree)

125:  Nahshon Garret (So.) #1

133:  Mark Grey (Fr.) #2

141:  Mike Nevinger (Sr.) #2

149:  Chris Villalonga (Jr.) #1

157:  Brian Realbuto (Fr.) #2

165:  Dylan Palacio (Fr.) #1

174:  Duke Pickett (So.) #4

184:  Gabe Dean (Fr.) #1

197:  Jace Bennett (Jr.) #2

285:  Jacob Aiken-Phillips (Jr.) #5

Basketball opens with a 63-55 win over Western Michigan.  After Redcast started working (@$&^!!), the defense looked extremely aggressive with 8 steals and 13(!) blocks.  Biggest surprise was Freshman Nolan Cressler with 20 points in his debut.

Wrobo named First team all-Ivy, quite the way for the senior to go out.

Miller is ROY.

Gray had a very nice Ivy season and earned HM honors (one of only two).

A nice win for the hoops team deserved a shout out.

I know correlation is not necessarily evidence of causation, but I can't help but think that the Big Red first rate second half (39-30) is at least slightly related to their taking just three three point shots in the half (missed them all).  Cornell penetrated at will, though they paid for some of those drives as the Tigers blocked 9 shots.  Cornell's pressure really bothered Princeton and the Big Red just looked quicker.  That quickness helped on the boards, as Cornell outrebounded the much taller Tigers 42-41.  

And this wasn't just a last hurrah by the seniors; 'ski was his usual steady self, but Ferry was way off (0 points).  Of the 11 guys who played, 6 were freshman or sophomores and Miller (Fr.), Cancer (Fr.) and Tarwater (Soph.) combined for 39 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 4 blocks and 3 steals.  

The only real downside (and Al be glad you were paying attention to hockey) was that Princeton turned this into a free throw shooting contest for the last 2:30 and Cornell was a painful 8 of 17 at the line.  Awful way to end the game.

With just a D3 game to go before the Ivy season starts (and with the last basketball thread containing too much Harvard talk) I thought I would check back with Ken Pomeroy to see what his site says about the squad.

KenPom now says Cornell is the 186th best basketball team in the nation and sixth best in the Ivies.  Cornell is now a slightly above average defensive team.  In the last decade only the 2010 team was better rated on that end.  Unfortunately, the offense is regressing and has its worst offensive ranking since 2006 when the team was also 4-9 heading into league play.  Some other numbers/observations based in the order they drive me insane and should be fixable.

1)  This team takes too many threes.  I think we all know that, but the numbers are astounding.  Only seven teams take more threes as a percentage of all shots, which would be high even for the Coach D years.  Here's why that's a big problem: for the first time in years, this is not an elite three point shooting team.  In fact, it is approximately 200th in the nation.  And that number is bouyed by Drew shooting at a 43% clip.  In the past, Cornell could get lucky with a hot shooting night and pull of an upset; the numbers say we cannot expect that to happen this year.  In fact, Cornell has shot better than 40% from the behind the arc twice this season, the Binghamton win and the Illinois loss.*  In comparison, the three Ivy Champs all shot over 40% from behind the arc for the season.  Cornell needs to get the ball down low to Eitan and Josh, get Miller to stop relying on long-range jumpers, and get more dribble penetration from its guards.  If the Big Red can do that, and they should be able to, that offensive rating should rise significantly.  If they continue to pass the ball around the outside and chuck up a three, it won't.

2)  The foul line does us no favors.  Cornell is in the bottom quarter at getting to the line and slightly below average at hitting what foul shots they get.  (Al, the numbers include Wroblewski's 86%.  Take him out of the equation and the rest of the team would be ranked about #300.  And, yes, there is no excuse for that.)  The Big Red is even worse at sending the other team to the line where opponents continue to hit at a ridiculous 75%; only nine teams have a worse FT "defense."  (Weird note, you would think FT defense is largely random, right?  I would, at least.  Cornell has been horrible in that category every year since 2003.  That team finished 6-14.  If anyone has an explanation, I would love to hear it.)  Too many of our fouls are 30 feet away from the bucket, which should be avoidable.  Our guards are doing a better job on trying to penetrate and draw fouls, so maybe this stat will even out a bit.

3)  This team gives up too many offsensive rebounds.  Offsensive rebounding remains dreadful (#335 of 345) and defensive rebounding has fallen off to decidedly below average.  Unfortunately, this is unlikely to change this season.  We play with a lot of three guard sets and our post players are poor rebounders.  Rebounding average doesn't tell the whole story, but Josh is fourth on the team (behind two guards) and Eitan sixth.  This could be a real impediment to pulling off an upset over Harvard or Yale (and perhaps Princeton and Columbia who are both good keeping teams off the offensive glass).

On the bright side, the defensive numbers are looking good.  Top 100 in turning the other team over and top 30 in three point defense.  That can keep a team in games (and has this season).  The regular FG defense is below average, but that's largely a function of giving up too many shots off offensive rebounds.  Bunce and Harmon have minutes waiting for them when they arrive in Ithaca next year.

I like to think this is a young team, but KenPom disagrees and says its about the same as Harvard as there are lots of minutes being given to Seniors (Chris and Drew are always on the court) and Juniors (Josh, Eitan, Miles and Johnathan).  Personally, I would be maximizing the minutes of Cancer, Miller, Cherry and to a lesser extent Tarwater, LaMore and Giddens.  This team isn't winning the league or playing in the post-season.  I'd rather build for the future, even if it means finishing in the second division.

Again, sorry for the wordiness.  There is a reason courts place limits on those of us who are lawyers.::whistle::

* edited to fix a factual error, sorry about that.

Ken's website is now a pay site, so no links and only a few specifics out of fairness to him.  Overall, he would label Cornell as decidedly average.  The Big Red is the #175 team in the nation (out of 345) and projects to basically a five hundred season.

Some of his numbers aren't surprising:  The Big Red is a lousy offensive rebounding team (bottom 10 percent), relies too heavily on the three ball (only 25 teams are more dependant), fouls too much and doesn't draw enought fouls (both well below average).  Philly is now saying "tell me something I didn't know".

But, Cornell is in the top 100 in the nation in forcing turnovers and getting steals, so some of Courtney's pressure defense teaching is bringing results.  They pass well (top ten percent in assists) and play great defense on three ball as teams are hitting just 25% of their three pointers against Cornell (#14!).  Lehigh's 3-24 performance from behind the arc may not have been a non-repeatable fluke.  Oh, defensive rebounding is actually above average, didn't expect that.

One weird stat is that Cornell can't buy a break when the other team goes to the line, as opponents are hitting an astounding 77.5% from the line (only six teams have a worse free throw "defense").  Both Buffalo and American could have turned into wins with a few more free throws misses from the other guys.  You have to figure that percentage will go down.  (FYI, Harvard has the best FT defense in the country, but I haven't watched enough Crimson Basketball to know how big a factor that is in any of their wins).

A little wordy, but the geek in me got on a roll.

So much for going into exams with a winning record.

The good news -- 1)  Wroblewski shot the ball well and had his best game of the season.  21 points, 6 assists, 4 Rebounds.  Maybe the shooting slump is over.  2)  Figini played like the post player the team needs him to be.  14 points, 5 rebounds and no three point attempts until the last minute when taking the three was the thing to do.  3)  Miller and Cancer keep playing well -- freshman mistakes aside.  After Ski, they are Cornell's most talented players.

The bad news -- Well, everything else.  American is a very ordinary team, but Cornell was on its heels most of the game.  Cornell looked lost on screens, doubling the ball after a screen time after time and leaving the screener wide open.  I guess that could be the way they are being taught, but I hope not.  Stopping dribble penetration is hit and miss.  On offense, there are too many guys willing to stand around the perimeter, chuck threes and hope to get hot.  When Cornell pushes tempo they look good.  Similarly, the offense is solid when they they try to penetrate and/or pass the ball into the post.  But there are too many three point "shooters" to play either offense.

Cornell now has a game against the Patriot League favorite (Lehigh) before the exam break and are staring a 3-11 start in the face, and that assumes a win in the first game back after exams.  Yeah, I may be overreacting to a pair of losses in winnable games, but this wasn't the start I was hoping for.

Nice home win and we have two freshman starters.  Cancer played 32 minutes (7 pts, 5 Reb, 4 Asts, and 4 rookie TO's).  Miller had 10 points and 6 boards over 28 minutes.  In the last minute of a one point game, Miller pulled down a huge rebound and Cornell set up a play for Cancer to post-up his man.  He hit the finger roll and the Big Red hit 7 of 8 from the line to secure the win.  Eitan and Figini combined for 21 points and 8 rebounds.

Hard to believe this hasn't gotten a mention yet.  Minnesota is stacked; every projected starter is ranked in the top 10.  Based on rankings, Cornell is only favored at three weights with Dake, Bosak and Simaz.  This is a huge early test but could be a coming out party for a couple youngsters.  It will have to be to get the win.