ELynah Forum

Quote from: nyc94Not sure where else to put this:

There is a "New Topic" option. ::blush::

There are only 3145728 possible outcomes left before the tournament selections.  Fortunately, somebody ran them all, computed the pairwise and figured out who's in and out of the NCAA tournament for each outcome:

http://collegehockeyranked.com/2014/03/17/in-contention-teams-tournament-probabilities/

According to this analysis, Cornell has about a 50/50 chance to get in the tournament (based solely on outcomes that get them in the tournament - no account for the likelihood each team wins a given game).  Beating Union goes a long way to get Cornell in the tournament without winning the ECAC championship.  

This doesn't list the scenarios that gets Cornell to 14th in the pairwise after losing to Union, but apparently there are roughly 3145 such scenarios.  The most likely outcome if losing to Union is finishing 17th in the pairwise and starting golf and slow-pitch softball season.  

It would be cool if this analysis was combined with the KRACH to predict the results of each game.

Quote from: TrotskyAnd that, my friend, is what we in the biz call "shitty."

Perhaps another reason for the Ivy League to split from the ECAC.  

I don't see a good reason for the Ivy teams to remain in the ECAC, especially with the Big-10 creating the model of a "small" 6 team conference.  With a 20-game (2 home, 2 away against each team) Ivy regular season, that leaves 9 OOC games, which is 2 more than the current number for Ivy teams.

It also evens the playing field for everyone in the league and avoids any more discussion of the late start disadvantage, especially if you start the season with league games.  

I've heard an argument that the Ivy teams don't want to split because the Ivy League won't allow a post-season tournament, but with the post-season tournaments in basketball and lacrosse I suspect that argument is not valid any longer.

Schafer segment begins just after 32 mins: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/hockeyoncampus/  Coach discusses the ECAC generally, Yale game, "balanced" scoring and Iles.  

Warning: nothing earth-shattering.

The QU game was terrible.  The feed froze every 2-3 minutes for a few seconds.  It was brutal.  Maybe time to message the "Director."

Quote from: CowbellGuyHowever, we are working on a script that attempts to cobble together some of that data from public sources, so you may see some of it return.

The NCAA sucks.  

It was bad timing to release a new version of the Android app when we knew box scores / live stats would not be available immediately for NCAA games.  A bunch of folks down-rated the Android app as a result, oh well.  Fortunately, we got the some amount of box score information working in a semi-automated fashion.  Hopefully that approach will work for the FF.

Quote from: martyiPhone or Android?

Fortunately, the Android version doesn't get updated, so it doesn't have any problem of crashing after updates.

Thanks for the nice comments!  Kinda fun to look at this and here's another take:

Each league appears to have a home team bias.  Meaning home team is getting more PPO and less PIM per game.  So, shouldn't this continue for NC games?  Is it any worse when a NC opponents come to town?


In Leauge Home In-League Visitor In-League Home Protection Bias Home Team Tack-On Bias v NC
Average PIM PPO / Game Average PIM PPO / Game Average PIM PPO / Game Average PIM PPO / Game
AH 10.08        4.09 11.83 3.68 -1.75 0.41 1.20 -0.67
CCHA 11.61 4.32 13.46 4.01 -1.85 0.31 0.53 0.09
ECAC 12.38 4.4 13.25 3.94 -0.87 0.46 -0.57 0.77
HE 12.75 4.46 12.98 4.27 -0.23 0.19 -0.27 0.10
WCHA 12.88 3.98 12.99 3.63 -0.11 0.35 -0.81 0.08



By my calculation, this makes the ECAC stand out even worse.  The home team bias nearly accounts for the NC bias in PPO/game in the CCHA (additional 0.09), HE (additional 0.10) and WCHA (additional 0.08), because those officials appear to just favor the home teams consistently in those leagues regardless if the visitor is NC.  However, the ECAC averages an additional 0.77 PPO/game more for league teams against NC teams.

As @ursusminor pointed out, the discrepancy in AH bias might be more structural and related not to officials, but the talent level of the teams.  This suggest that lumping together the different NC opponents isn't a very good thing to do, but small sample size makes analysis of individual pairs of conferences unreliable (for example, only 1 AH team hosted a WCHA team).

Edit: make clear the home and visitor columns are for in-league games.  I think this is the analysis @Trotsky is suggesting in the previous post (this was started before I saw that post).

Quote from: MattSI think, and I could very well be wrong, that the AHA and ECAC use some of the same officials. Or at least they use to. What that might do to the conclusions I am not sure.

It makes things look even worse for the ECAC.  Excluding AH-ECAC games from the analysis on the assumption the officials shouldn't have a league bias because they come from both leagues shifts the ECAC "apparent bias" to even more protecting - with an average of 1.4 additional PPO / game when an ECAC team plays at home against a NC opponent.  In addition, AH appears to hate their teams even more.

         Apparent Protection Bias   
        Average PIM   PPO / Game
AH      -0.93           -0.30
ECAC   -1.58           1.40

In light of Schafer complaining about WCHA protecting their league and making stuff up, I took a look to see if there is any truth to this matter.  A little analysis is dangerous, but here goes nothing.  A few notes: includes 164 non-conference (nc) games with boxes available that are non-tournament games where the home team league is assumed to have provided the officials.  Excludes common league opponents playing in NC games.  PPO = power play opportunities.


 @ Home Against NC Team   NC Oppontents   Apparent Protection Bias
Average PIM PPO / Game Average PIM PPO / Game Average PIM PPO / Game
AH 9.41        3.70        9.97        3.96        -0.55        -0.26
CCHA 12.72        4.47        14.04        4.07        -1.32        0.40
ECAC 12.93        5.03        14.38        3.81        -1.44        1.23
HE 10.98        4.74        11.48        4.45        -0.50        0.29
WCHA 13.28        3.87        14.20        3.44        -0.92        0.43


This would suggest the ECAC is the worst offender.  The ECAC gives their league an average of 1.23 more PPO / game when playing a NC opponent.  The only league that is not biased would be Atlantic Hockey which appears to hate their teams.

Ok, but is this any different from the way penalties are called in the league? "D" mean Delta in the header.

In Conference @ Home v NC Team On Road v NC Team @ Home v NC Team On Road v NC Team
PIM PPO PIM PPO PIM PPO D PIM D PPO D PIM D PPO
AH 10.96 3.89 9.41 3.70 11.43 3.79 -1.54 -0.19 2.02 0.10
CCHA 12.54 4.17 12.72 4.47 10.15 3.83 0.18 0.31 -2.57 -0.64
ECAC 12.82 4.17 12.93 5.03 13.71 4.19 0.12 0.86 0.78 -0.85
HE 12.87 4.37 10.98 4.74 16.56 3.58 -1.89 0.38 5.58 -1.16
WCHA 12.94 3.81 13.28 3.87 12.58 4.86 0.35 0.06 -0.70 1.00


This is a little weird.  It suggests at home AH and HE schools are penalized less vs NC school whereas CCHA, ECAC and WCHA are penalized slightly more.  All leagues except AH enjoy more PPO / game as the home team in NC games than they typically get in conference with ECAC being the worst again.  As the visitor in NC games, CCHA and WCHA teams are penalized less than in conference, but HE, AH and ECAC are penalized more.  The CCHA, ECAC and HE get fewer PPO / game on the road in NC games than in conference, but the WCHA and AH teams enjoy more PPO/game - including the WCHA that average 1 additional PPO / game as the visitor in NC games!  

I'm sure there is some better analysis to be done (none of this takes the variance into account - how are PIM distributed anyway?!?!), but perhaps this is interesting to some people.


Here's some of the "raw" data (rows are visiting teams, columns are home teams):


164 Non-Conference Games Played
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH - 11 19 7 2 -
CCHA 4 - 6 1 12 -
ECAC 7 8 1 16 10 -
HE - 2 9 - 9 -
WCHA 1 7 3 4 - 2
Ind 9 2 4 2 6 -
NC Visit Team PIM / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH - 14.36 10.21 12.14 9 -
CCHA 4 - 9 14 13.58 -
ECAC 9.86 16.13 - 10.75 18.1 -
HE - 12 21 - 16.67 -
WCHA 10 18.71 18.67 9.5 - 6
Ind 16 9 13 11 13.67 -
NC Home Team PIM / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH - 14.55 9.32 13.14 10 -
CCHA 7 - 10.17 12 11.5 -
ECAC 10.43 14.25 - 10.25 14.9 -
HE - 13.5 19.67 - 16 -
WCHA 10 15.29 16 9.5 - 20.5
Ind 10.22 6 9.5 10 14 -
NC Visit Team PPO / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH - 4.27 3.89 4 3 -
CCHA 3.25 - 3.33 5 3.75 -
ECAC 4.14 5.5 - 3.5 3.6 -
HE - 3.5 4.56 - 2.67 -
WCHA 5 4.57 4 4.75 - 6
Ind 3.44 2.5 3.25 5 4.17 -
NC Home Team PPO / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH - 4.55 4.42 3.57 2.5 -
CCHA 2 - 4 6 4.42 -
ECAC 4 4.88 5 4.13 3.8 -
HE - 3.5 - - 4.44 -
WCHA 5 5.43 8 4.5 - 3
Ind 3.78 4 3.75 5.5 4.17 -

Conference Games Played
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH 65 - - - - -
CCHA - 72 - - - -
ECAC - - 48 - - -
HE - - - 56 - -
WCHA - - - - 82 -
Ind - - - - - -
Conf Visit Team PIM / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH 11.83 - - - - -
CCHA - 13.46 - - - -
ECAC - - 13.25 - - -
HE - - - 12.98 - -
WCHA - - - - 12.99 -
Ind - - - - - -
Conf Home Team PIM / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH 10.08 - - - - -
CCHA - 11.61 - - - -
ECAC - - 12.38 - - -
HE - - - 12.75 - -
WCHA - - - - 12.88 -
Ind - - - - - -
Conf Visit Team PPO / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH 3.68 - - - - -
CCHA - 4.01 - - - -
ECAC - - 3.94 - - -
HE - - - 4.27 - -
WCHA - - - - 3.63 -
Ind - - - - - -
Conf Home Team PPO / Game
V/H AH CCHA ECAC HE WCHA Ind
AH 4.09 - - - - -
CCHA - 4.32 - - - -
ECAC - - 4.4 - - -
HE - - - 4.46 - -
WCHA - - - - 3.98 -
Ind - - - - - -

                                       
A note on the raw data is that in EVERY league, the home team enjoys more PPO and fewer PIM!

Quote from: marty4.11 is now available at the online Android market, whatever it is called.

0.4.14 is now available (has been for a couple weeks).  With the addition of Penn State, all earlier versions (25% of devices are running earlier versions) will fail to run consistently.

For the curious - here's a list of % active device installs by version number:   
14: 74.86 %
11: 22.73 %
10: 1.09 %
9: 0.51 %
8: 0.78 %
5: 0.03 %

Thank you to those who update or allow auto-updates!  Running an earlier version?  No support for you!

0.4.15 is expected in the next couple of weeks.  It will add news, favorite team(s) designation, tale-of-the-tape, detailed game summaries and some other under the hood improvements.

Quote from: jtn27I just realized that probably sounded ungracious considering that you probably put a lot of work into making this and don't expect any compensation.

There are ads in the MarketPlace version ... ::innocent::

Quote from: CowbellGuyYou can expect that by next season.

Really?  Making promises to help with the Android App now!?!?  ::banana::

Quote from: JDeafv

Quote from: cbuckserThank you.  Thank you.  I didn't know this would ever get done, given Age's strong preference for Apple products.

I know beggars shouldn't be choosers, but will future releases be compatible with older versions of Android?  Or will I need to flash a CM7 ROM?

Glad you like it.  Nope, sorry.  No plans to support earlier than API 10.

Quote from: Chris 02How come this won't support any early versions of Android?  I'm stuck with version 2.2 on my phone.

Sorry, but some good news the demands has been large enough to motivate support for earlier versions of Android!

Compatibility with earlier versions of the SDK is a work in progress.  Not ready for prime time yet.

CHN Go! The Android College Hockey News App is available from the Google Play.

Download here!

Upgrades include:
- Automatically refresh game details page for live games
- Select number of days to load on live scoreboard
- PWR rankings break ties correctly
- Live scores on team details page
- New main page layout
- Stability enhancements
- Timezone corrections for game times
- Automatic updates from marketplace

Note: To anyone who installed via direct links, you may have to manually UNINSTALL the existing version before downloading, but that depends on your device.

Have fun!