ELynah Forum

The Cornell-Yale game is being broadcast live on NESN - for all of you who can't get last minute tickets.

Games that help the Big Red tonight (and why):

CCHA
OSU (RPI)
WMU (RPI)

ECAC
Bruno (TUC, RPI - 3rd game likely w/Cornell in ECAC semi)
Yale (RPI - RS and possible tourn. game)
Colgate, Vermont (RPI - possible 1st round foes)

HE
BC (no TUC for NE)
BU (RPI, kick Providence from at-large)
UMASS (Cornell maybe wins ME comparison)

WCHA
SCSU (no TUC for WI)
MN-Duluth (help's Big Red in MN comparison)
MSU (kickNoDak, edge Providence for last at-large)

Top 3: Bruno, BU, MN-Duluth
Want no chance of Providence in NCAA 1st round

Hate to say it, but the most likely upset is probably from the ECAC (Hahvahd).

Next would be Mich St.  Except for WMU, who they haven't played, they've beaten all the other CCHA teams at least once.

It's a long shot to think Merrimack or UMASS could win the HE tournament.

Likewise with Minn.-Duluth or lower in the WCHA.

A thread at USCHO.COM is speculating that if Providence doesn't make it then Cornell is going to Ann Arbor as #1 seed.  (Ithaca is much closer to the Mid West reg. site than Orono or Durham NH).  I don't believe it based on what the NCAA guidelines seem to say.

Providence is one of the hotest teams in country right now, hate to face them in game 1 in their home town. ::uhoh::

If Maine loses two comparisons they are now winning, and at least one is to UNH, then Maine goes to #4, everything being approx. equal.  That may mean they go west.  But you're right, it won't matter much for Cornell if Providence is still in the mix because UNH will be at Worcester while we're slugging it out against Prov., NoDak and Ohio St.

Providence has an excellent chance of losing the last at-large spot for several reasons:

1. They only make it if all 4 major conference tournaments are won by a top 14 PWR team.  If Harvard or Dartmouth win the ECAC tournament, for example, only the top 13 PWR teams make it, and Prov. is out (as of today).

2. The RPI difference between Prov. and MSU is .0034.  Prov. has 3 remaining RS games against teams with records of: .656, .656, .383.
MSU has 6 remaining RS games against records of: .750, .750, .797, .797, .469, .469.
If the TUC and COp comparisons don't change, MSU is in a good spot to win RPI and the entire comparison.

For this, and other seeding reasons, Cornell fans should be rooting for BU to win out.

Whether your playing in your golf league's tournament, the world cup, or the NCAA hockey tournament, playoffs always start off with (as an ideal):

1 v 16_____
8 v 9
                    ----------
4 v 13_____
5 v 12
                                ----------
2 v 15_____
7 v 10
                    ----------
3 v 14_____
6 v 11

The goal is that 1 plays 2 in the final; 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3 in the semis; 1 plays 8, 2 plays 7, 3 plays 6, and 4 plays 5 in the quarters: etc.

Add in rules about hosts having to play in a certain place and no first round matchups from the same conference and you get quickly to the brackets I hypothesized.

So 1, 8, 9 and 16 always go together as do 4, 5, 12 and 13, etc. in a 16 team format spread over 4 locations.

Obviously SCSU(9) flips with Ferris St.(10) instead of Ohio St(11) to get:

Worcester
Maine(2)
BU(6)
SCSU(9)
Al-Huntsville(15)


Providence
Cornell(3)
NoDak(7)
Ohio St. (11)
Providence(14)

Ann Arbor
UNH(4)
BC(5)
Michigan(12)
Denver(13)

Minneapolis
CC(1)
MN(
Ferris St. (10)
Mercyhurst(16)

Sorry, (too much time behind a snowblower today).

Providence probably won't make it (MSU will beat them out on RPI).  Maine also won't finish 2nd in PWR.  But let's go with your teams as they stand now.

The NCAA splits the 16 teams into 4 flights based on PWR, with 1 team from each flight at each regional. On a 1 v 16, 2 v 15 etc basis, with the traditional arrangement used in all competitions, as a starting point you'd have:

Worcester
Maine (2)
NoDak(7)
Ferris St(10)
Al-Huntsville(15)


Providence
Cornell(3)
BU(6)
Ohio St.(11)
Providence(14)

Ann Arbor
UNH(4)
BC(5)
Michigan(12)
Denver(13)

Minneapolis
CC(1)
MN(
St Cloud(9)
Mercyhurst(16)


The only 2 problems you have are that BU has to play at Worcester and MN can't play St Cloud. You don't violate the seedings much by flipping BU(6) and NoDak(7) to get BU to Worcester, and swapping St Cloud (9) for Ohio State (11).

So you end up with:


Worcester
Maine(2)
BU(6)
Ferris St(10)
Al-Huntsville(15)


Providence
Cornell(3)
NoDak(7)
St Cloud (9)
Providence(14)

Ann Arbor
UNH(4)
BC(5)
Michigan(12)
Denver(13)

Minneapolis
CC(1)
MN(
Ohio State(11)
Mercyhurst(16)

Pretty straightforward.  Puts Cornell in the "Group of Death", as they say in soccer, but there's an excellent chance Maine will end up losing at least 2 comparisons it's now winning (NoDak, MN, UNH, SCSU are the most likely) so the Big Red may end up in Worcester with BU, Ferris St and Al-Hunstville.

How sweet it would be....

Three Harvard students were standing in back of me through the 1st period into the 2nd. About 5 minutes in, noticing there are seats available, the following exchange takes place:

1st student:    Hey, there are seats, lets's sit down.
2nd student:   OK, but I don't want to sit a Cornell section
3rd student:    Are you kidding, this whole place is a Cornell section!

No matter what losses Maine takes there is probably no chance that their RPI will drop below ours - even if Cornell wins out.  Remember, if Maine drops to 3 or 4 in HE, that means the winning % of their 1st round HE tournament opponent is that much higher, somewhat offsetting their losing.

There's no chance UMASS, Merrimack or any HE team other than NE and Lowell will drop from TUC.

Being pragmatic, we don't need to finish #1 east.  #2 east is just as good, so let Maine have it since their RPI will (95% probability) be higher than ours anyway.  

Maine winning out means at least BC or UNH, and maybe both, have a tournament loss, and 1 of them doesn't get to play another game (HE final) against a team with a high winning % (there's no consolation game in HE - so if you lose in the semis you're done).

The rational on Wisconsin, AA, NE changes somewhat in the league tournaments.  We want them to take their opening series to 3 games, aggravating the effect of their dismal records on their high RPI opponents.:-)

The out-of-towns get particularly interesting at this time of year.  Other things to root for (in addition to UND, CC, BC, UNH and MN tanking):

- Wisconsin continues to lose so a) it doesn't sneak back into TUC and 2) #2 WCHA seed (UND?) gets its RPI driven into the ground in it's 2 game playoff series. ::laugh::
- AA continues to lose, same rationale for WCHA #1 as 2), above.:-D
- Northeastern continues to lose so HE #1 (may we dare hope UNH?) gets its RPI nailed in round 1, and NE stays out of TUC.:-))
- Brown gets to TUC (we're not perfect against them, but a .750 in that category is mighty good to add)
- Maine, BU, Ohio State and WMU win out, or as close as possible since BU finishes at Maine (positive-sum game for our Op record)

It's hard to figure out playoff scenarios at this point, which are important since RPI and PWR are computed at the end of the tournaments, not the regular season.

But by the end of the RS, if Cornell wins out, their RPI will drop to between .594 and .595 because their opponents (Op) records are weak from here in.  Op records make up 50% of the RPI.

In contrast, before considering whether Maine wins or loses, their last 4 RS games will raise their RPI about .0014 based on Op records.  OpOp records are disregarded for this simple minded analysis.

So the question is, with Cornell at .5945 (best case) what would Maine's record have to be to drop it below that number.  The answer is that Maine cannot do better than a win and a tie if Cornell is to have any shot at them.

Practically speaking this means UMass (2-8-0 in their last 10) needs a tie with Maine next weekend and BU needs to sweep at Orono the next.  Don't hold your breath.

The bigger question for Cornell is can they hold onto their comparisons against other close competitors so they can get a #1 seed in the east?  We know their RPI will drop, perhaps below .5900. If so, what happens (pre league tournaments)?

UNH - Even if they lose RPI, TUC and COp will probably still win it for Cornell
BC - Same as UNH
BU - TUC and COp are closer than the 2 above, but Cornell's head to head wins means BU has to reverse all three criteria to win.  I'd bet on Cornell.
ND - Determined strickly on RPI.  They've got some tough games remaining plus two against RPI killer Wisconsin.  A tossup.
MN - Like ND, strictly an RPI decision.  Be conservative, call it a loss.
St. Cloud - If Cornell loses RPI then TUC becomes important.  But SCSU is playing AA and WI in 4 of the last 6, so I'd bet on Cornell winning RPI (unless they tank)
The rest - probably not at risk.

But even if this plays out for Cornell, UNH could still pick up comparsions from other teams, finish higher than the Big Red, and send them west as a #1, or lower, seed. ::nut::

In one goal or tie games (an ENG by either team that makes the final score > 1 goal is still a 1 goal game for these purposes) Cornell's record this season is:

                      W     L      T
Lenny             3     2      1
Non-Lenny     2     2      0

The 2 non-Lenny 1 goal losses were the Florida tournament, where Cornell has a long standing commitment to the organizers that it will not win the consolation game under any circumstances.

Last night's tie would have been a win except for his pedestrian handling of Brown's second goal.