I started this to see our odds, and then I decided to complete it for everyone else. Enjoy.
Wisc 480.2
Cor 232.5
CC 289.0
BSU 110.4
Cornell odds to beat CC:
232.5 / 521.5 = 44.5%
... Wisc:
232.5 / 640.7 = 32.6%
... BSU
232.5 / 342.9 = 67.8%
Wisc odds to beat BSU:
480.2 / 590.6 = 81.3%
... CC:
480.2 / 769.2 = 62.4%
CC odds to beat BSU:
289 / 399.4 = 72.4%
odds to advance to the Frozen Four:
Wisc:
(81.3%)*(44.5%*67.4% + 55.5%*62.4%) = 52.5%
Cornell:
(44.5%)*(81.3%*32.6% + 18.7%*67.8%) = 17.4%
CC:
(55.5%)*(81.3%*37.6% + 18.7%*72.4%) = 24.5%
BSU:
(18.7%)*(44.5%*32.2% + 55.5%*27.6%) = 5.6%
Discuss... :)
That 17.4% seems accurate to me. I watched the Minnesota/St. Cloud game on TV and was amazed at the pure offensive talent of some of those Minnesota guys. When Potulny has an opening to the net, it's a safe bet it'll be a goal. Same as with a couple other guys on the Minnesota team (Irmen comes to mind). And yet Wisconsin shut them down. If Wisconsin shuts out Minnesota, would Cornell be able to muster anything (assuming they would get by CC)? I am highly skeptical... When Cornell gets a chance at a bit of net, it's a safe bet it'll be a near miss no goal. Cornell has to play its system flawlessly to defeat the pure offensive talent of the WCHA, and I don't think they're up to it this year. Of course, there is a chance, but not a big one. That's why I think the 17.4% chance to get to the FF is just about right. Maybe about one out of every five regionals Cornell would string together two fantastic games and go to the FF. Of course, I think CC might be a bit easier than Bucky, but to go 2 for 2... :-/
Regardless, I'm looking forward to the games.