here is the new thread. old thread is -> here http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,79886
current rankings with .0033/.0022/.0011 bonus - 3/18/06 - after all games
note: hahvhad SUCKS is now the pink and not the crimson
Note2: clarkson NOT a TUC, niagara NOT a tuc, bemidji is due to their autobirth
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 5 26-10-3 .7051 1 .5788*
2 Minnesota 27 1 27-8-5 .7375 2 .5775*
3 Boston University 26 4 25-9-4 .7105 3 .5712
4 Michigan State 25 8 24-11-8 .6512 4 .5703
5 Harvard 24 9 21-11-2 .6471 5 .5664
6t Miami 22 2 26-8-4 .7368 6 .5620
6t North Dakota 22 11 27-15-1 .6395 7 .5602
6t Cornell 22 7 20-8-4 .6875 8 .5517
9 Michigan 20 19 21-14-5 .5875 9 .5479
10 Colorado College 19 14 24-15-2 .6098 10 .5461
11 Boston College 18 10 23-12-3 .6447 11 .5444
12t Maine 16 6 26-11-2 .6923 12 .5428
12t New Hampshire 16 16 20-12-7 .6026 13 .5405
12t Nebraska-Omaha 16 21t 20-14-6 .5750 15 .5361
15t Dartmouth 12 15 19-12-2 .6061 14 .5373
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15t Denver 12 20 21-15-3 .5769 17 .5274
15t Northern Michigan 12 21t 22-16-2 .5750 21 .5233
18 St. Cloud State 11 23 22-16-4 .5714 18 .5263
19 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 28 18-16-5 .5256 19 .5244
20 Ferris State 9 29 17-15-8 .5250 20 .5235
21t Holy Cross 7 3 26-9-2 .7297 16 .5333*
21t St. Lawrence 7 25t 20-16-2 .5526 22 .5183*
23 Ohio State 6 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5114
24 Vermont 5 25t 18-14-6 .5526 25 .5076
25 Lake Superior 4 30t 15-14-7 .5139 27 .5059
26t Colgate 3 18 20-13-6 .5897 23 .5171
26t Providence 3 30t 17-16-3 .5139 26 .5067
28t Bemidji State 2 17 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4945
28t Minnesota State 2 33 17-18-4 .4872 28 .5032
current rankings with 3/2/1 bonus
nRk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 5 26-10-3 .7051 1 .5782*
2 Minnesota 27 1 27-8-5 .7375 2 .5772*
3 Boston University 26 4 25-9-4 .7105 3 .5707
4 Michigan State 25 8 24-11-8 .6512 4 .5698
5 Harvard 24 9 21-11-2 .6471 5 .5655
6t Miami 22 2 26-8-4 .7368 6 .5620
6t North Dakota 22 11 27-15-1 .6395 7 .5596
6t Cornell 22 7 20-8-4 .6875 8 .5516
9 Michigan 20 19 21-14-5 .5875 9 .5478
10 Colorado College 19 14 24-15-2 .6098 10 .5453
11 Boston College 18 10 23-12-3 .6447 11 .5444
12t Maine 16 6 26-11-2 .6923 12 .5428
12t New Hampshire 16 16 20-12-7 .6026 13 .5403
12t Nebraska-Omaha 16 21t 20-14-6 .5750 15 .5360
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
15t Dartmouth 12 15 19-12-2 .6061 14 .5373
15t Denver 12 20 21-15-3 .5769 17 .5274
15t Northern Michigan 12 21t 22-16-2 .5750 21 .5233
18 St. Cloud State 11 23 22-16-4 .5714 18 .5263
19 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 28 18-16-5 .5256 19 .5241
20 Ferris State 9 29 17-15-8 .5250 20 .5235
21t Holy Cross 7 3 26-9-2 .7297 16 .5330*
21t St. Lawrence 7 25t 20-16-2 .5526 22 .5180*
23 Ohio State 6 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5111
24 Vermont 5 25t 18-14-6 .5526 25 .5075
25 Lake Superior 4 30t 15-14-7 .5139 27 .5059
26t Colgate 3 18 20-13-6 .5897 23 .5171
26t Providence 3 30t 17-16-3 .5139 26 .5067
28t Bemidji State 2 17 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4945
28t Minnesota State 2 33 17-18-4 .4872 28 .5028
Links:
uscho pwr http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php
sioux sports pwr http://www.siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwr.php
uscho krach http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=krach
usa today poll http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=usatoday&week=poll
uscho poll http://www.uscho.com/rankings/
ecac possibilities script for playoffs http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/ecac.cgi
build your own pairwise http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml:-D
just playing around with the build your own pwr thing. if we had beaten michigan state both games, we would be in 2nd place. I used all the default settings, just changed the score of that game to MS 2 COR 3
wow... that's nipping is in the ass...
If they win out, what are the chances of them finishing in the 6-3 range? If they sweep the first round and split in Albany, what are the chances? I know it will probably depend on who the opponents are, but I'm assuming they will have two of Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, and SLU.
Ok, completely honest question here, which requires that preface because otherwise it could come across as some type of flaming:
Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?
Personally, I'll pay attention to bands and seeds and regionals and opponents, and opponents' opponents in two situations -- if we start to fall towards borderline at-large, or if we start to rise to the top 4.
Otherwise, in a word, whatever. We'll play where we're sent, and there's no "better" or "worse" regional or set of opponents. If we want to make noise come March and (knock on wood) April, we'll have to beat good teams; that's not rocket science, obviously, but it makes all the PWR machinations seem like a waste of time. After all, who's to say that going out to Minnesota last year to play UM on their home ice wasn't the best possible scenario, taking all the pressure off the Big Red and nearly vaulting them to a Frozen Four?
All that being said, I'm glad we have so many folks around here willing to put the time in to figure out countless combinations and permutations. It's fun reading
[/semi-rant]
:-)
Because look what happened last year.
[quote calgARI '07]If they win out, what are the chances of them finishing in the 6-3 range? If they sweep the first round and split in Albany, what are the chances? I know it will probably depend on who the opponents are, but I'm assuming they will have two of Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, and SLU.[/quote]
PM me and I'll tell ya :-}
Sorry, Ari. Ya made it too easy.
Anyway, we currently lose to all the teams above us, and UND. Basically, in all those cases, winning RPI is about the only way for us to flip it.
Running it through JTW's script, using the mostly likely "win out scenario", I'm adding two wins over Union, one over Colgate and one over Dmouth. Would raise our RPI to .5568 and bring us to 6th.
Throwing in a few more Union, Colgate, and Dartmouth wins before then couldn't hurt either. But we would need some loses by the other teams. Luckily, with 3 or 4 WCHA and at least two CCHA teams in close competition, some loses are guaranteed.
There's one exception, which is that we could win the Miami comparison on Common Opponents. That could be helped by Miami playing and losing to MSU (plus that would help our RPI more). Also an over .500 record against Clarkson, SLU, or RPI would help us there too.
All in all, the guys just gotta show up and win and 3-6 (or, well, 6) is likely. Anything less, and probably not. I'm less interested in looking too deeply at what needs to happen elsewhere when we haven't shown that we can do what we need to do, but that's a quick look.
And if we end up 7, root for BU to get the opposing 2 (which looks possible if they do well and Miami and Wisc don't).
[quote Jordan 04]there's no "better" or "worse" regional[/quote]
From the fan perspective, I'll take three hours by car over half a day and who knows how many planes to get to North Dakota.
[quote Jordan 04]We'll play where we're sent, and there's no "better" or "worse" regional or set of opponents.[/quote]
There is when I live 20 minutes from Worcester and 2.5-3 hours from Albany... but many many moons from Fargo and Green Bay :)
[quote Jordan 04]Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?
...
All that being said, I'm glad we have so many folks around here willing to put the time in to figure out countless combinations and permutations. It's fun reading[/quote]
I think you just answered your own question.
[quote calgARI '07]Because look what happened last year.[/quote]
Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."
Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.
And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.
Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."
[quote nyc94][quote Jordan 04]there's no "better" or "worse" regional[/quote]
From the fan perspective, I'll take three hours by car over half a day and who knows how many planes to get to North Dakota.[/quote]
Fair enough, and I'd probably feel the same way about a drive up to Albany from the city, especially considering the Grand Forks possibility this year, which isn't quite as accessible as Minneapolis. But OTOH, having to fly out to Minnesota last year on 48-72 hours notice, and then experiencing that regional, was a helluva lot of fun.
[quote Jordan 04][quote calgARI '07]Because look what happened last year.[/quote]
Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."
Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.
And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.
Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."[/quote]
The fact that the team went unbeaten in their last 20 games, won the regular season title, post season title yet had to go out to Minnesota and play a road game on Olympic Ice. That was complete bull shit and had Cornell lost one of those games, it could have been a different story. They shouldn't go strictly by the PWR but because they do, we have to look at very closely. I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.
I'm not going to sugar coat anything about that game against Minnesota. Yeah, they took them to brink, but that after Cornell had finally adjusted to playing on bigger ice in a full road game. Had they played them on a regular sheet of ice at a neutral site, I believe Cornell would have won that game. That is how important the PWR is and that is why I and I think a lot of other people take it so seriously.
[quote calgARI '07][quote Jordan 04][quote calgARI '07]Because look what happened last year.[/quote]
Please, enlighten me on "what happened last year."
Because from my seat in Mariucci, it looked very much like we took a #1 seed on its home ice to the brink -- including completely dominating them in the last 20 minutes of play -- when nobody expected us too.
And that was a day after coming back from behind to defeat a strong Ohio State team.
Only in an imaginary world where people know the results of hypothetical games played again hypothetical opponents in Amherst or Worcester is there a "what happened last year."[/quote]
The fact that the team went unbeaten in their last 20 games, won the regular season title, post season title yet had to go out to Minnesota and play a road game on Olympic Ice. That was complete bull shit and had Cornell lost one of those games, it could have been a different story. They shouldn't go strictly by the PWR but because they do, we have to look at very closely. I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin.
I'm not going to sugar coat anything about that game against Minnesota. Yeah, they took them to brink, but that after Cornell had finally adjusted to playing on bigger ice in a full road game. Had they played them on a regular sheet of ice at a neutral site, I believe Cornell would have won that game. That is how important the PWR is and that is why I and I think a lot of other people take it so seriously.[/quote]
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the point Jordan's trying to make is why bother analyzing every possible scenario when whatever happens is going to happen and the committee's going to send Cornell wherever their criteria tells them to? It's not a question of how "fair" is it to get sent someplace as much as it is a question of "does it matter how many statistical analyses you compute when the end result will be the same." I think "it's a fun read" is probably the only real answer. :-D
[quote Jordan 04]
Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?[/quote]
Well, I can give you a list of people who care. I don't care as much as some, so I'll take a stab at an answer.
1) Cheering interest. I'm fine with saying "just let the chips fall where they may" on game nights and looking at the numbers after the fact. But knowing through the work of people here that Northern Michigan beating Bowling Green in the CCHA consolation game most likely gives us a matchup with CHA champion Alabama-Huntsville instead of a date with Denver ahead of time is pretty nifty and gives me reason to actually get into games around the nation. Ken '70 has done a pretty good job at keeping tabs on CU rooting interest so far.
2) Historical continuity and committee accountability. JTW knows what the committee did differently in '03 vs. '02, and can try to apply that knowledge to what should happen this year, and can actually have numerical proof that someone got screwed in the selection. Probably more than any other sport that I can think of. And if this knowledge can be further utilized to have an effect on the system itself, well, that's pretty remarkable that fans can have that great an impact. The KRACH movement gained momentum due to work like this.
3) It's fun and interesting to read.
4) Interest diversity. I may not be very interested in what Justin Milo does on the ice until he's physically on the hill. But that doesn't mean that others don't enjoy following the future Big Red skaters. PWR possibilities may seem like a waste of time to you, but isn't this whole damn forum...nay...this whole CU hockey obsession, in the grand scheme of things, a huge waste of time? :-D Dryden, I sure hope not.
[quote Section A Banshee]
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but I think the point Jordan's trying to make is why bother analyzing every possible scenario when whatever happens is going to happen and the committee's going to send Cornell wherever their criteria tells them to? It's not a question of how "fair" is it to get sent someplace as much as it is a question of "does it matter how many statistical analyses you compute when the end result will be the same." I think "it's a fun read" is probably the only real answer. :-D[/quote]
It does give you a reason to root for one team over another in the other league tournaments. Sort of like how the weekly football pool makes me care about Jets v. Texans.
[quote calgARI '07] I do not want to go play a road game in North Dakota or Wisconsin. [/quote]
For the record, the GB regional is a neutral venue. It may be in Wisconsin but it is not Wisconsin's home ice nor are they host (MTU). In fact there is at least one scenario (NoDak as a 4 with BU, MN, Miami, and WI as 1's) that puts Wisconsin in Albany as a 1 seed.
I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.
[quote Chris '03]I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.[/quote]I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website (http://www.ncaasports.com/icehockey/mens/schedules/) says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?
[quote jmh30][quote Chris '03]I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.[/quote]I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website (http://www.ncaasports.com/icehockey/mens/schedules/) says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?[/quote]
I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.
i like updating the rankings b/c i like to procrastinate :)
[quote Jordan 04]Ok, completely honest question here, which requires that preface because otherwise it could come across as some type of flaming:
Why does everyone pay such god-damn close attention to this? Who cares?
[/quote]
The same reason we watch a bunch of kids whack a piece of rubber while sliding around on ice. By pretending it's important we can willingly fool our brains into producing pleasurable neuro-chemical reactions.
It's a neat trick when you think about it.
That's why I like reading all of this stuff! :-D
[quote Jacob '06][quote jmh30][quote Chris '03]I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.[/quote]I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website (http://www.ncaasports.com/icehockey/mens/schedules/) says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?[/quote]
I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.[/quote]
That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything. ::rolleyes::
[quote Steve M][quote Jacob '06]I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.[/quote]
That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything. ::rolleyes::[/quote]
Before you go assuming some massive anti-Cornell conspiracy, are you aware that any school designated as the "host" of a regional has chosen to be involved, and has been actively involved, in the bidding process? Last I heard, Cornell didn't bid on that regional, the conference did.
Beeeej
[quote Steve M][quote Jacob '06][quote jmh30][quote Chris '03]I doubt this is your point, but if you're trying to say that a Cornell vs. Wisconsin in a regional game in GB is unfair, I'd call that a stretch. The same argument would have to apply to Cornell vs. Wisconsin in Rochester next year.[/quote]I've asked this before, and it's probably been answered before, but who's the host of the Rochester regional? The NCAA website (http://www.ncaasports.com/icehockey/mens/schedules/) says the ECAC Hockey League is the host, but does anyone know whether any particular school is part of that?[/quote]
I'm pretty sure I saw someone here or on USCHO say that it is just the league, so no team will get put there by default.[/quote]
That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything. ::rolleyes::[/quote]Come on, Cornell could have applied to the NCAA to hold a tourney. That's what the ECAC did and they got it. BU regularly does this at Worcester.
I think some of us are too paranoid. ::nut::
[quote schoaff]The same reason we watch a bunch of kids whack a piece of rubber while sliding around on ice. By pretending it's important we can willingly fool our brains into producing pleasurable neuro-chemical reactions.
It's a neat trick when you think about it.[/quote]
Yes. Yes, it is. Well said.
[quote Jim Hyla][quote Steve M]
That figures. The ECAC wouldn't want to give Cornell an unfair advantage or anything. ::rolleyes::[/quote]Come on, Cornell could have applied to the NCAA to hold a tourney. That's what the ECAC did and they got it. BU regularly does this at Worcester.
I think some of us are too paranoid. ::nut::[/quote]
Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.
[quote Winnabago]
Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.[/quote]
Wait. You trust our athletic director (note the capitalization) with anything that needs to be organized??!? He's in charge of the people who have recently brought you such events as the Hockey ticket sprint-n-beatdown '05, and the forms-that-slipped-our-mind-so-students-have-to-pay-for-sports-now-apalooza. If they were given an NCAA hockey regional, I'm sure teams would show up to find a squash court set up instead of ice.
Now if it were wrestling, we'd be all set.
[quote RichH][quote Winnabago]
Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.[/quote]
Wait. You trust our athletic director (note the capitalization) with anything that needs to be organized??!? He's in charge of the people who have recently brought you such events as the Hockey ticket sprint-n-beatdown '05, and the forms-that-slipped-our-mind-so-students-have-to-pay-for-sports-now-apalooza. If they were given an NCAA hockey regional, I'm sure teams would show up to find a squash court set up instead of ice.
Now if it were wrestling, we'd be all set.[/quote]
There's a lot of pent-up frustration showing, Rich. I'll play along, though. Obviously Schafer understands the advantage host teams have, so why is it such a stretch, or a better question might be: why isn't this a bigger issue to him, the players, and contributing alumni? 90% of D1 doesn't even try to host, and many that do attempt it, don't go on to make the tourney. We could have an advantage, gained through off-ice work, that doesn't seem to be the big issue for those who are responsible for it. Does coach just not have that much sway?
[quote Winnabago][quote RichH][quote Winnabago]
Ok, I'll ask the question. Is there a financial or other IVY-related reason that Cornell does not apply to host a regional at Blue Cross or the OnCenter? I would imagine that there is significant cost to rent the building, but that would be offset by ticket revenue (and the NCAA distributes teams to help attendance). They use Rochester as a neutral site already, so it can't be that much of a stretch. If RPI can host, our boosters surely can manage it.[/quote]
Wait. You trust our athletic director (note the capitalization) with anything that needs to be organized??!? He's in charge of the people who have recently brought you such events as the Hockey ticket sprint-n-beatdown '05, and the forms-that-slipped-our-mind-so-students-have-to-pay-for-sports-now-apalooza. If they were given an NCAA hockey regional, I'm sure teams would show up to find a squash court set up instead of ice.
Now if it were wrestling, we'd be all set.[/quote]
There's a lot of pent-up frustration showing, Rich. I'll play along, though. Obviously Schafer understands the advantage host teams have, so why is it such a stretch, or a better question might be: why isn't this a bigger issue to him, the players, and contributing alumni? 90% of D1 doesn't even try to host, and many that do attempt it, don't go on to make the tourney. We could have an advantage, gained through off-ice work, that doesn't seem to be the big issue for those who are responsible for it. Does coach just not have that much sway?[/quote]
Cornell hosted an NCAA men's lacrosse regional on campus in 2004 and came out of it looking not so good. They just weren't prepared for the amount of people that showed up. I cannot speak to whether hockey would have more or less personnel issues, but I figure if Cornell athletics can't take care of business in their own backyard, they probably couldn't do it in Rochester.
Wouldn't the arena shoulder some/most of the burden on the day of the event?
plus maybe with the renovations the athletic department doesnt have the cash - the university could kick in some cash but they dont have it either ::rolleyes::
this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/02_tourney.php
[quote A-19]this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/02_tourney.php[/quote]
Who honestly believes that we deserve a #1 seed?
[quote ebilmes][quote A-19]this article indicates that cornell cannot attain a #1 seed: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/02_tourney.php[/quote]
Who honestly believes that we deserve a #1 seed?[/quote]
If we won out, and other things happened that mathematically delivered unto us a #1 seed, we'd "deserve" a #1 seed.
Beeeej
There are two ways to look at the PWR at this point: root for the chips to fall so that Cornell finishes as high as possible or root for the chips to fall in such a way that lets Cornell stay east for the NCAAs. There are probably some overlaps and certainly some differences.
The easier analysis is the Cornell maximizing scenario. Here's some things to root for:
- Cornell to win out.
- Niagara to win the CHA. 2 TUC wins could come in handy.
- Canisius to win the AHA somehow some way. Again, a TUC win would help.
- Cornell to play (and beat) at least one of SLU/Clarkson/RPI. That would break the CoP tie with Miami and help flip that comparison (Cornell would still need some help in RPI)
- North Dakota to do some losing. Cornell flips that comparison if it can close a .0058 RPI gap. The CoP and TUC are split and won't change.
- Clarkson to either lose the next two, bow out with an RPI < .500 or play and be swept by Cornell next week.
- Loses by Union and RPI tonight dropped their RPI to below .4900 which should be low enough that even with series wins they don't threaten to be TUC's. Both teams bowing out wouldn't hurt though given Cornell's record against them this season.
- If Harvard plays SLU next week, it would help if they lost at least once. A 2-0 TUC boost for the Crimson would flip the comparison in Harvard's favor. The CU/HU comparison could be big in determining whether Cornell is a 2 or 3 seed down the line. Beating SLU 2-0 flips the comparison. Beating them 2-1 does not. It also goes without saying that if the two meet Cornell has to win.
- Maine to do some losing. Cornell currently leads the comparison 2-1 but is losing RPI by .0015. A loss to UMass tomorrow would be nice. A quick exit from the HEA tourney would be nicer. Could be rooting for Vermont at Alfond next week.
- Denver to stop winning! As I write this CC tied them up 6x5. Win or Tie, DU will probably flip the Cornell comparison. Cornell leads in RPI by .0006 for now.
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.
- There's obviously more to root for, but these are a few to start.
The analysis of keeping Cornell east is much more difficult. If by some miracle Cornell rises to a 1 seed, they'd be in Albany unless UND falls to a 4 and all hell breaks loose with intraconference matchups out west. Strictly by bracket integrity, presuming the WCHA teams hold 1-2 in the overall, Cornell finishing 7,8,9, or 10 is a ticket west. There are so many teams fighting for those spots right now that it's hard to nail down any formula. Someone else is welcome to run through those possibilities.
With all Fri. results now in, the DU tie flipped the Cornell comparison and Cornell is now alone in 10th:
Rk Team PWR Record W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Minnesota 29 1 24-6-5 .7571 1 .5863
2 Wisconsin 28 4 22-9-3 .6912 2 .5761
3 Miami 27 2 23-7-4 .7353 4 .5661
4t BU 25 7 20-9-4 .6667 3 .5661
4t Michigan State 25 10t 20-10-8 .6316 5 .5604
6 Colorado College24 10t 23-13-2 .6316 6 .5503
7t North Dakota 21 15 22-14-1 .6081 7 .5487
7t Harvard 21 12 17-10-2 .6207 8 .5455
7t Nebraska-Omaha 21 18 19-12-6 .5946 13 .5429
10 Cornell 20 6 17-7-4 .6786 11 .5431
11t Maine 19 5 23-10-2 .6857 9 .5445
11t Denver 19 17 20-13-3 .5972 10 .5439
13 Michigan 18 24 18-13-5 .5694 12 .5430
14 Boston College 17 9 20-10-3 .6515 14 .5367
15 New Hampshire 16 20 17-11-7 .5857 16 .5319
16 Dartmouth 14 19 16-11-2 .5862 15 .5331
17 Northern Mich 12 21 20-14-2 .5833 22 .5224
18 Providence 11 25t 17-13-3 .5606 20 .5246
19t Ferris State 10 29 16-13-8 .5405 17 .5315
19t St. Lawrence 10 22 18-13-2 .5758 18 .5281*
21 UAF 9 30t 16-14-5 .5286 21 .5241
22 Vermont 8 16 18-11-6 .6000 24 .5194
23 Ohio State 7 37 15-18-5 .4605 25 .5187
24t Holy Cross 5 3 22-9-2 .6970 19 .5268
24t Colgate 5 13 18-10-6 .6176 23 .5200
26t Sacred Heart 4 8 20-10-2 .6563 27 .5161
26t St. Cloud 4 23 18-13-4 .5714 26 .5173
28t Lake Superior 3 30t 15-13-7 .5286 28 .5148
28t Minnesota St 3 33 16-16-4 .5000 29 .5039
30 Clarkson 0 32 16-15-3 .5147 30 .5008
Canisius?
[quote nyc94]Canisius?[/quote]
Yeah. Don't wins last year count for the PWR this year? I totally thought that game wa this year when I wrote that. ::uhoh:: I think everything else is right.
Since the AHA champ doesn't have much of an impact on Cornell so I'll root for Canisius now. Go Griffs...
[quote Chris '03]The easier analysis is the Cornell maximizing scenario. Here's some things to root for:
- Cornell to win out.
- Niagara to win the CHA. 2 TUC wins could come in handy.
- Canisius to win the AHA somehow some way. Again, a TUC win would help.
- Cornell to play (and beat) at least one of SLU/Clarkson/RPI. That would break the CoP tie with Miami and help flip that comparison (Cornell would still need some help in RPI)
- North Dakota to do some losing. Cornell flips that comparison if it can close a .0058 RPI gap. The CoP and TUC are split and won't change.
- Clarkson to either lose the next two, bow out with an RPI < .500 or play and be swept by Cornell next week.
- Loses by Union and RPI tonight dropped their RPI to below .4900 which should be low enough that even with series wins they don't threaten to be TUC's. Both teams bowing out wouldn't hurt though given Cornell's record against them this season.
- If Harvard plays SLU next week, it would help if they lost at least once. A 2-0 TUC boost for the Crimson would flip the comparison in Harvard's favor. The CU/HU comparison could be big in determining whether Cornell is a 2 or 3 seed down the line. Beating SLU 2-0 flips the comparison. Beating them 2-1 does not. It also goes without saying that if the two meet Cornell has to win.
- Maine to do some losing. Cornell currently leads the comparison 2-1 but is losing RPI by .0015. A loss to UMass tomorrow would be nice. A quick exit from the HEA tourney would be nicer. Could be rooting for Vermont at Alfond next week.
- Denver to stop winning! As I write this CC tied them up 6x5. Win or Tie, DU will probably flip the Cornell comparison. Cornell leads in RPI by .0006 for now.
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope.
- There's obviously more to root for, but these are a few to start. [/quote] ::nut:: ::nut:: ::nut:: I think it's time for bed.
I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus? Because without it, Cornell is alone in 7th. Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?
clarkson becoming a tuc hurt. root for them to lose two more. plus isnt it hard to get tickets from the clarkson ticket office?
I'd say root for exactly the same results tonight. That way we play Clarkson and, while winning, either 1) knock them from TUC - Good, or 2) beat them twice while they hang on to TUC and thus we add two more TUC wins - Good
We want to control our destiny re: Clarkson's TUC status, not have them play someone else and stay TUC.
Another reason to play them is they'll come in with a 17-15 record, so we may get a small RPI boost from beating them. Playing and beating Brown, Yale, Princeton, Union, QU or even RPI wouldn't be as helpful.
[quote Chris '03]
- Mankato to go back to their losing ways and get swept next week in the WCHA playoffs. Hopefully it's enough get their .5041 RPI back under .500. Right now they are giving TUC wins to all the WCHA contenders. The only benefit of the Mavs being a TUC is that they manhandled Wisco last week. If Cornell plays and beats SLU down the road (it would have to be in Albany), they'll take the CoP with WI. The TUC is .6800 to .6250 in WI's favor at the moment but is close enough to flip (especially the way WI has struggled down the stretch). WI has the RPI. All in all it's probably better for the Mavs to get their RPI down under .500. Once we know their opponent, it'll be easier to tell if that's a realistic hope. [/quote]
UMD's RPI will stay about where it is with another result like friday. Since they're at .500 they are at the exact point where a win or a loss has the highest impact on their own record, which is 25% of RPI. Losing again tonight drops their win % to .486 which is enough to almost offset adding another instance of MN's record to their Opp record column.
They're playing at DU in the WCHA quarters. They'll lose two more there putting their win % at .463, even if they win one of three. They don't need to get swept.
There's only one case of a TUC having a losing record, that's OSU which has the highest strength of schedule in the country. UMD's is currently 32nd, and they'll being playing Denver who's win rank is only 17th.
No way they stay TUC, unless they win 2 more games.
[quote calgARI '07]I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?[/quote]
No, but it is sure they'll use some bonus, and its been in that range. The numbers aren't released.
[quote calgARI '07]Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?[/quote]
You're a smart guy, Ari. I suggest you take some time to learn how the PWR works a bit more. So you know why no one can just answer that question. Or if you already do know and are just being lazy, well that I totallly respect ;)
http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=pwrexplanation
[quote DeltaOne81][quote calgARI '07]I really don't know this PWR stuff but is it a sure-thing that they do the 33-22-11 bonus?[/quote]
No, but it is sure they'll use some bonus, and its been in that range. The numbers aren't released.
[quote calgARI '07]Additionally, lets say Cornell wins out, what are the chances of them cracking the top 6 (where they need to be to stay east it seems)?[/quote]
You're a smart guy, Ari. I suggest you take some time to learn how the PWR works a bit more. So you know why no one can just answer that question. Or if you already do know and are just being lazy, well that I totallly respect ;)
http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=pwrexplanation[/quote]
Sometimes I feel like I really understand it whereas others I just don't know. I just want to go to Albany or Worcester and really dont wanna go to North Dakota or Wisconsin. Maybe I'll just start praying or something.
yeah i know what u mean ari. I just want to go to ithaca for the playoffs next weekend...cant find tickets. clarkson is usually a bitch to get tix from...I hope cornell plays someone other than clarkson. :)
PWR maybe makes sense if you just capture one snapshot at season's end (or seeding time) and it is what it is. Following it daily as the season winds down, you see that Cornell is unchanged as a team and unchanged in its abilities to play hockey (in sickness or health), yet our potential seed and playoff location bounces around if North Dakota wins or RPI loses. Especially vexing when we're affected by a team that plays a team we never played.
Or is it like democracy ... worst form of government except everything tried before?
[quote Ken '70]
UMD's RPI will stay about where it is with another result like friday. Since they're at .500 they are at the exact point where a win or a loss has the highest impact on their own record, which is 25% of RPI. Losing again tonight drops their win % to .486 which is enough to almost offset adding another instance of MN's record to their Opp record column.
[/quote] Could you explain what you mean by that? When a team is at 1.000, a loss has its greatest impact on its record. When a team is at .000, a win has its greatest impact on its record.
I am reading all of these PWR threads so that I will understand it in the one year in the distant future when it will make a difference to RPI. ::rolleyes:: Probably they will have changed the system seven times before that, or I'll be dead ... or both.
the short answer. I'll have others provide the full mathematical analysis
RPI = 25% of the team's record, 50% of opponent's records, 25% of opponents' opponent's records.
Opponent's records exclude your games aginst them - similarly for OO records.
So it's possible that even if you beat a team (e.g. Brown; Northeastern, etc), your RPI will go down because of the weight on opponent's records.
Team A has a 19-1 record, or .9500. They win their next game to go to 20-1, their win % increases to .9524, an increase of .0024, (25% of which flows to RPI).
Team B has a 10-10 record, or .5000. They win their next game to go to 11-10. Their new winning % is .5238. an increase of .238, about 100 times larger increase in winning % than team A.
The delta as to the absolute effect of an incremental win or loss is greater as you get closer to .5000, from either direction. The greatest single gain, or loss, a team can experience is at it moves from .5000.
Therefore the further you are from .5000 the greater the effect of your next opponent's winning % on your RPI relative to the gain/loss you get from winning/losing the game.
Sorry, the above is true only as you move away from .5000, not toward it. UMD will be moving away from .5000 tonight, hopefully south. Apologize for the confusion. ::nut::
[quote Ken '70]Sorry, the above is true only as you move away from .5000, not toward it. UMD will be moving away from .5000 tonight, hopefully south. Apologize for the confusion. ::nut::[/quote] Exactly. In your previous message, ".238" should be ".0238", thus about 10 times bigger than .0024, not 100, but it doesn't change your point.
[quote Ken '70]
The delta as to the absolute effect of an incremental win or loss is greater as you get closer to .5000, from either direction. The greatest single gain, or loss, a team can experience is at it moves from .5000.
Therefore the further you are from .5000 the greater the effect of your next opponent's winning % on your RPI relative to the gain/loss you get from winning/losing the game.[/quote]
If you have a perfect record, a loss will drop your RPI further than a loss would if you were at 0.5000 prior to the loss. A win then helps you not at all, other than adding to a buffer if you were to eventually lose (where the RPI drop would be less severe).
As we consider teams with RPI of 0.5000 more than teams with a Brown-like RPI as the "bottom rung," a win certainly does help the 0.5000 team more than the 1.0000 in terms of RPI change, but a loss hurts the 1.0000 team (Minnesota) more than the 0.5000 team (Clarkson).
[quote billhoward]Or is it like democracy ... worst form of government except everything tried before?[/quote]
Wow, Bill. I think one of your phrases finally hit the nail on the head. PWR is far from perfect, but if you compare it to what football, basketball, or lacrosse do, you should be very greatful for it.
I suppose you're a fan of subjective decisions you could like basketball, but everyone's entitled to be wrong ;). Football is just messed up, and lacrosse is ust dreadful (love the sport, hate the selection process).
in other sports, cornell is 217 in rpi in mens hoops :)
und won
uno is winning
Niagara is very close to becoming a TUC - showing as .4989 on Hockey@SiouxSports.com - with the .003 bonus for its away quality win. I'm not sure what win they have constitutes quality (Alabama-Huntsville?)so perhaps this website isn't correct. Anyway I believe they are getting close.
It would seem that the Big Red's pairwise rating would jump significantly if Niagara makes it to the "upper level". Can someone decipher if the Purple Eagles can become a TUC and the impact that will have to Cornell's PWR?
[quote Brad Crispell]Can someone decipher if the Purple Eagles can become a TUC and the impact that will have to Cornell's PWR?[/quote]
They could assure TUC status by winning the CHA tournament.
[quote Brad Crispell]Niagara is very close to becoming a TUC - showing as .4989 on Hockey@SiouxSports.com - with the .003 bonus for its away quality win. I'm not sure what win they have constitutes quality[/quote]
December 30, 2005: Niagara 6, New Hampshire 2. http://www.collegehockeystats.net/0506/boxes/mniaunh1.d30
[quote Brad Crispell]I'm not sure what win they have constitutes quality (Alabama-Huntsville?)/quote]
You can't get a quality win in a conference game.
or a nonconference game against a conference foe
still 1-0 SLU after 2
1-1 third period, 2:54 in
no... this cannot be like last night... no more overtime...
2-1 SLU 11 min left
[quote me]2-1 SLU 11 min left[/quote]
This game is being updated in three threads.
2-2 8:40 left or played in the third. Sounds like it was a divinesque goal.
updated with the slu(t) result.
Just to point out the wacky nature of the PWR, and to return to a topic that someone broached a few weeks ago, I ran JTW's DIY PWR script and changed that MSU loss to a win. If that had happened, we would've been the #1 overall seed in the tournament at this point.
What this type of behavior says about the PWR is clear; what this small difference between supremacy and struggle says about our team is less clear. Are we a lucky streak away from ECAC and national championships, or are we the talented also-rans? I guess we'll find out.
Adam provides another very good breakdown of the current PWR situation.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2006/03/07_ncaabracket.php
[Q]10. Cornell — This is the first team in the list that is truly vulnerable to not making the tournament, though Cornell is likely in already. The Big Red didn't play, but slipped a couple of spots. It could've been worse, had Union defeated Yale (don't ask). You know what's amazing? If Cornell had swept its season-opening series against Michigan State, instead of splitting, the Big Red would be the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament right now. What does that say about the nature of the Pairwise? Especially since that would make them only No. 10 in KRACH.[/Q]
[Q]What does that say about the nature of the Pairwise? Especially since that would make them only No. 10 in KRACH.[/Q]
It tells me that PWR > KRACH. :-D
Since I'm too lazy to look myself, can someone quickly say how the MSU flip would vault us to #1? It's obviously not RPI. Is it just that that flips COp against a bunch of western teams?
[quote KeithK]Since I'm too lazy to look myself, can someone quickly say how the MSU flip would vault us to #1? It's obviously not RPI. Is it just that that just flip COp against a bunch of western teams?[/quote]
RPI would be .5544. Cornell would be tied with Minnesota with 30 comparison wins and wins the comparison with Minnesota while losing the comparison with BU.
In the case of Minnesota we are currently losing 3-0 (RPI, TUC, ComOp). With the MSU win Cornell would take TUC and ComOp and win 2-1. With Wisconsin we are currently losing 2-0 (ComOp is tied) and with the MSU win we would take the comparison 2-1, gaining ComOp and TUC. Same case with Miami. With MSU we are currently tied 2-2 and they win on RPI. Shift a head to head game to us and we win that one 3-1.
This is our fault. If only we'd have started the PWR threads and intense discussion sooner, the team would have known exactly what to do to get that #1 seed...
Edit: originally taken down in the interest of being nonconfrontational, then put up due to KeithK's inconsiderate quoting...
[quote ebilmes]This is our fault. If only we'd have started the PWR threads and intense discussion sooner, the team would have known exactly what to do to get that #1 seed...[/quote]I blame Whelan. If only he'd had his PWR script up and running for this season back in October, the team might have known they had to sweep MSU. We needed the ability to predict the entire season in advance.
Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October. OK, I blame someone else for not stepping up and doing it! Not me, of course. I'm blameless.
Edit: Heh, caught ebilmes before the edit. :-D
[quote KeithK]Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October.[/quote]
You mean like whether my apartment had flooded and how many advanced civilizations of mold and maggots had arisen in my refrigerator? ::panic::
[quote jtwcornell91][quote KeithK]Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October.[/quote]
You mean like whether my apartment had flooded and how many advanced civilizations of mold and maggots had arisen in my refrigerator? ::panic::[/quote]\\
Well its about damn time the molds and maggots started pulling their own weight around here. Is getting a PWR script up and running pre-season really *that* much to ask? ;-)
[quote jtwcornell91][quote KeithK]Well, maybe John had other things to worry about in October.[/quote]
You mean like whether my apartment had flooded and how many advanced civilizations of mold and maggots had arisen in my refrigerator? ::panic::[/quote]
ouch, that sux, john. they have all been exterminated I hope :) spores can be a bitch, ask ripley http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0078748/
Robert Morris just beat Air Force 4-3 in the CHA quarterfinals which is interesting only in that they will play Niagara in tomorrow's semifinals. This is interesting only in that Niagara is still alive to win the CHA autobid and become a TUC. And as of right now adding two more TUC wins does nothing for us.
Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?
[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?[/quote]
Niagara is not in any danger of becoming a top 15 team.
[quote nyc94][quote Jeff Hopkins '82]Does Niagara winning the CHA autobid get us secret mystery RPI bonus points or only get us TUC wins?[/quote]
Niagara is not in any danger of becoming a top 15 team.[/quote]
OK thanks. I didn't know whether the criterion was being a tournament team, or something else.
[quote nyc94] This is interesting only in that Niagara is still alive to win the CHA autobid and become a TUC. And as of right now adding two more TUC wins does nothing for us.[/quote]
but it could certainly mean something by March 18.
Big night with crazy results. UMD beat Denver, Mankato beat NoDak, UNO lost, MSU lost, Niagara a TUC (for now), etc.
Among other things, Cornell flipped the Miami comparison.
I haven't thought it all the way through, but it looks like if the season ended today Cornell would be in Miami's bracket in Albany.
Cornell now t5 with the 33/22/11 bonus:
1 Minnesota 31 1 26-6-5 .7703 1 .5858*
2 Wisconsin 30 3 24-9-3 .7083 2 .5794*
3t Miami 28 2 24-7-4 .7429 3 .5635*
3t Boston U 28 7 22-9-4 .6857 4 .5591
5t Michigan State 26 12t 20-11-8 .6154 5 .5567
5t Cornell 26 6 18-7-4 .6897 8 .5467
7 Colorado Coll 23 12t 23-14-2 .6154 10 .5461
8t North Dakota 22 14 23-15-1 .6026 6 .5479
8t Michigan 22 21t 19-13-5 .5811 7 .5469
8t Nebraska-Omaha 22 19 20-13-6 .5897 12 .5418
8t Harvard 22 15t 17-11-2 .6000 11 .5461
8t Maine 22 5 25-10-2 .7027 9 .5465
13t Boston College 19 8 22-11-3 .6528 13 .5411
13t New Hampshire 19 11 20-11-7 .6184 14 .5397
13t Denver 19 21t 20-14-3 .5811 15 .5365
16 Dartmouth 16 15t 17-11-2 .6000 16 .5347
17 Ferris State 15 29 17-14-8 .5385 17 .5318
18 N Michigan 14 18 21-14-2 .5946 20 .5250
19 Alaska-F 12 26 18-14-5 .5541 18 .5305
20t Holy Cross 11 4 23-9-2 .7059 19 .5266
20t St. Lawrence 11 20 20-14-2 .5833 21 .5240*
22 MinnesotaState 9 34 17-16-4 .5135 28 .5083
23t Vermont 8 27 18-14-6 .5526 27 .5084
23t St. Cloud 8 24 19-14-4 .5676 22 .5204
25t Colgate 7 15t 18-11-6 .6000 23 .5154
25t Ohio State 7 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5141
27t Providence 6 31t 17-16-3 .5139 25 .5098
27t Lake Superior 6 31t 15-14-7 .5139 26 .5087
29 Sacred Heart 4 9 20-11-2 .6364 29 .5078
30 Clarkson 2 31t 17-16-3 .5139 31 .5005
31 Mercyhurst 1 10 20-12-1 .6212 30 .5013
32 Niagara 0 25 18-14-1 .5606 32 .5000
I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005. This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status? (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)
Crazy 5 way tie for 8th.
Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Harvard (11)
4 UNH (14)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 BC (13)
Problems - 6 Cornell / 11 Harvard, 4 BU / 13 BC
The Cornell issue is easily repaired by sending Harvard to Worcester in replace of Maine. Neither team would mind that flip too much and seems most fair.
BU/BC is tricker. Cant move BU. 13 BC flipping with 14 UNH useless. So next is 13 BC with 15 AHA/CHA. Leaving:
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 BC (13)
Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNH (14)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Harvard (11)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Only teams with a right to complain are Wisc (who is deprived of the supposed patsy) and BC - who has to travel to Green Bay and face #2 in the country.
Anything I get wrong?
Conclusion: yes, be #6 or above is pretty key for us staying east.
Well I like the spot we are in now, 2 weekends in Albany wont be that bad
If someone other than Cornell or Harvard wins the ECAC there are going to be some grumpy Hockey East fans.
[quote DeltaOIne81]
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (7)
3 UNO (10)
4 BC (13)
Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNH (14)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 Harvard (11)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Only teams with a right to complain are Wisc (who is deprived of the supposed patsy) and BC - who has to travel to Green Bay and face #2 in the country.
Anything I get wrong? [/quote]
Very similar to what USCHO came up with. They have Dartmouth in instead of UNH, possibly because BC and UNH play each other next week, guaranteeing 2 losses for one of them. They put Dartmouth in Worcester and sent the AHA/CHA team you had there to Green Bay. BC is placed in Albany instead of UNH.
http://www.uscho.com/pdf/general/2006bracket.pdf
Edit: no, they gave the #1 seeds in each tournament the projected "autobid," and that's how Dartmouth got into their projected bracket.
[quote RichH]
Very similar to what USCHO came up with. They have Dartmouth in instead of UNH, possibly because BC and UNH play each other next week, guaranteeing 2 losses for one of them. They put Dartmouth in Worcester and sent the AHA/CHA team you had there to Green Bay. BC is placed in Albany instead of UNH.
[/quote]
I know you edited your post but I'm just pointing out that next week would be single elimination semifinals and final. And Hockey East doesn't play a consolation game so those teams can only have one more loss each, max.
[quote nyc94]I know you edited your post but I'm just pointing out that next week would be single elimination semifinals and final. And Hockey East doesn't play a consolation game so those teams can only have one more loss each, max.[/quote]
Ah, you're right. I've got 3-game series on the brain for some reason this week. :-)
[quote jmh30]I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005. This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status? (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)[/quote]
It is very, very tight and depends on outcomes of other games that effect Clarkson's Op and OpOp %s. They need Niagara, Umass, SLU, MIami and Bemidji to almost all win tonight and then to have continued success. It also will help Clarkson stay TUC if Cornell continues to win since Clarkson has 4 instances of Cornell in its Op column.
However, I don't think it matters much. I ran a script where most favorites, or teams that won last night, continue to win. If Cornell wins its next two but loses the ECAC final, they're still in 6th playing either BU or Miami in the east. If Cornell wins the final they're in Albany (as #4) playing Miami.
Cornell is in pretty good shape if they just win, which they've had trouble doing when needed from a PWR perspective.
[quote Ken '70][quote jmh30]I noticed that after tonight's result, Clarkson's RPI is down to .5005. This may have already been asked, but, if Cornell wins tomorrow night, will they drop below .5 and out of TUC status? (At that point it'd be good for them to remain a TUC, because a 3-1-0 record against them helps Cornell's TUC record.)[/quote]
It is very, very tight and depends on outcomes of other games that effect Clarkson's Op and OpOp %s. They need Niagara, Umass, SLU, MIami and Bemidji to almost all win tonight and then to have continued success. It also will help Clarkson stay TUC if Cornell continues to win since Clarkson has 4 instances of Cornell in its Op column.[/quote]
This is one of those stupid PWR things where it might actually end up better for Cornell to beat Clarkson 2-1 in the series rather than sweeping, if the extra win for Clarkson keeps them as a TUC AND it improves Cornell's TUC record enough to flip a comparison. Of course, we won't know that until the end of the conference tournaments when all the games are played and we can flop the result in the DIY script, but it's possible.
Stupid PWR.
[quote Ken '70]Cornell is in pretty good shape if they just win, which they've had trouble doing when needed from a PWR perspective.[/quote]I beg to differ, Cornell is in great shape if they just win.:-D
updated the first post with the new rankings. didnt have access til this AM to a computer :)
It's worth noting that Niagara is a TUC with the 33-22-11 bonus but not with 3-2-1. It's that close.
Quick question...
Haven't been following this closely, but when/why did 33-22-11 replace 3-2-1 as the likely bonus?
[quote jy3]updated the first post with the new rankings. didnt have access til this AM to a computer :)[/quote]
You spelled Cornell wrong...
I believe the song goes, "C-O-R-N-E-DOUBLE L...."
[quote Tub(a)]Quick question...
Haven't been following this closely, but when/why did 33-22-11 replace 3-2-1 as the likely bonus?[/quote]
After each selection show, people try to 'reverse engineer' what the bonus was based on who ended up where. Apparently some people determined that what they were using was more like 33-22-11 than 3-2-1.
[quote Robb]This is one of those stupid PWR things where it might actually end up better for Cornell to beat Clarkson 2-1 in the series rather than sweeping, if the extra win for Clarkson keeps them as a TUC AND it improves Cornell's TUC record enough to flip a comparison. Of course, we won't know that until the end of the conference tournaments when all the games are played and we can flop the result in the DIY script, but it's possible.
Stupid PWR.[/quote]
The worst scenario for Cornell is the one described above. Their TUC record is 10-4-1, or .7000. Beating Clarkson 2-1 makes their TUC 11-5-1, or .6765. If Cornell just wins tonight and Clarkson drops for good, then their TUC is 9-3-1, or .7308. In the case of losing to Clarkson tonight but winning tomorrow, not only would it hurt their TUC % but they'd take a RPI hit, which is far more important than TUC right now.
PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.
[quote TCHL8842]Well I like the spot we are in now, 2 weekends in Albany wont be that bad[/quote]While I might still prefer going to Lake Placid over going to Albany, I MUCH prefer Albany to Grand Forks.
[quote Ken '70]
PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI.[/quote]
I was actually thinking this last night. It would have eliminated that DU-CC controversy last year anyway.
[quote Ken '70]PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.[/quote]
AAAARGH! :-( RPI, KRACH, and the arbitrarily chosen criteria of PWR all depend only on the "actual result on the ice". Don't perpetuate the ridiculous fallacy that rating systems which deal with the unavoidable complications of an unbalanced schedule are somehow not determined by game results.
[quote jtwcornell91][quote Ken '70]PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.[/quote]
AAAARGH! :-( RPI, KRACH, and the arbitrarily chosen criteria of PWR all depend only on the "actual result on the ice". Don't perpetuate the ridiculous fallacy that rating systems which deal with the unavoidable complications of an unbalanced schedule are somehow not determined by game results.[/quote]
I think the main point Ken was trying to make was that Head to Head was a preferable tiebreaker vs. how teams did against the schedule as a whole.
[quote jtwcornell91][quote Ken '70]PWR is a pretty good way of sorting teams except that I'd make the tie-breaker H2H, when available, before RPI. It's always better to have an actual result on the ice decide things rather than a mathematical abstraction like RPI or KRACH.[/quote]
AAAARGH! :-( RPI, KRACH, and the arbitrarily chosen criteria of PWR all depend only on the "actual result on the ice". Don't perpetuate the ridiculous fallacy that rating systems which deal with the unavoidable complications of an unbalanced schedule are somehow not determined by game results.[/quote]
The result of how two teams actually did against each other as a means of breaking ties in an otherwise more complex system can hardly be called arbitrary. RPI and KRACH are mathematical abstractions drawn from real results, but not the results themselves.
But this is a religious argument for you, so I'll bow out at this point. Reasoning against an Islamic jihadist or KRACH devotee is equally futile.
[quote Ken '70]
The worst scenario for Cornell is the one described above. Their TUC record is 10-4-1, or .7000. Beating Clarkson 2-1 makes their TUC 11-5-1, or .6765. If Cornell just wins tonight and Clarkson drops for good, then their TUC is 9-3-1, or .7308. In the case of losing to Clarkson tonight but winning tomorrow, not only would it hurt their TUC % but they'd take a RPI hit, which is far more important than TUC right now.[/quote]
I think your point is correct, but we're already 2-1 vs. Clarkson, so if they drop out of TUC, then wouldn't our TUC record go to 8-3-1 (.7083) instead of .7308?
Best case scenario is that we sweep them AND they remain a TUC, which would get us to 11-4-1 (.7188). Of course, our "current" 10-4-1 is dependent upon Niagara "remaining" a TUC, which they are only with at least a 33/22/11 bonus (exactly at .500 RPI right now) or winning their tourney. If they tack on two more wins but lose their conference championship, then perhaps a 3/2/1 bonus will still get them to TUC status, but it'll be close.
Go Purple Eagles!!!!
Speaking again of Niagara, they are tied with Robert Morris at 2-2 late in the second.
Live box score at http://www.collegehockeyamerica.com/2005/tournament/msemi1.htm
[quote Robb]
Go Purple Eagles!!!![/quote]
Niagara squandered a two goal lead and is tied with RMU at the end of 2 periods
[quote Ken '70]The result of how two teams actually did against each other as a means of breaking ties in an otherwise more complex system can hardly be called arbitrary.[/quote]
I didn't say using head-to-head results as a tiebreaker was arbitrary. I said the selection criteria that make up the PWR were arbitrarily chosen. Why is a TUC a team with an RPI above .500 and not just above .600? Why are the RPI weights 25-50-25? Why is the "quality wins" bonus whatever it is? But my point is that any of these measures is still a way of quantifying the results of an entire season.
[quote Ken '70]RPI and KRACH are mathematical abstractions drawn from real results, but not the results themselves.[/quote]
So is winning percentage, but we still use that to determine the final standings within a league. So is a point system that makes a win worth 3 points and an overtime or shootout loss worth 1. Does that mean the NHL doesn't choose playoff teams based on the results of games, because they convert those results into points first?
[quote Ken '70]But this is a religious argument for you, so I'll bow out at this point. Reasoning against an Islamic jihadist or KRACH devotee is equally futile.[/quote]
I see. Anyone who disagrees with your opinion about the best way to rank teams--or even considers as valid something other your preferred system--is a fanatic. Wonderful rhetorical tactic. Have fun with your ball at home.
Niagara up 3-2.
[quote French Rage]Niagara up 3-2.[/quote]
Final: Niagara 3, Robt Morris 2.
Niagara's RPI is now .4992 so they are a TUC with the 3-2-1 bonus (not only 33-22-11)
[quote nyc94]Niagara's RPI is now .4992 so they are a TUC with the 3-2-1 bonus (not only 33-22-11)[/quote]
I remember a lot of whining about having Niagara on the schedule at the beginning of the year, and I was probably part of it.
I don't know if Schafer got lucky or knew something that we didn't, but this would obviously be huge for CU.
After tonight's ECAC results, Clarkson's RPI now stands at .4997. *sigh*
Clarkson's RPI falls to .4997 with several western games still in progress. They have no quality wins.
Niagara at .4982 with a quality road win at UNH. And they play Bemidji Sunday in the CHA finals.
[quote jmh30]After tonight's ECAC results, Clarkson's RPI now stands at .4997. *sigh*[/quote]
Since we played 3 games worth of Hockey this weekend, think we can convince the NCAA to at least give them credit for an extra tie?
[quote nyc94].4997[/quote]
Stupid cliff.
[quote Robb][quote nyc94].4997[/quote]
Stupid cliff.[/quote]
It doesn't matter much, we're .7083 vs. TUC w/o them - 8-3-1.
With then we'd be 11-4-1, or .7188 .
If we had lost to them allowing them to be a TUC, we'd be 11-5-1, or .6765.
So at least there's no "if we had lost we'd be better" situation like Wisc had last (?) year.
And it makes no difference in any of our TUC categories at the moment, nevertheless overall comparisons. I guess it could when its all said and done, but, by then, Clarkson could be TUC with a few Miami, etc wins.
I expect clarksons RPI to go up when all is said and done since Opp win % is 50% of the RPI. Right now only Quinny and Bemidji are below Clarkson in RPI and not by much. I didn't try any math, but since everyone left is going to be playing higher RPI teams I'fd think that the RPI of the group would go up over the remaining games.
Cross your fingers. We'll know the chances much better tomorrow night.
---------------
Clarkson's opponents that are still playing are:
Niagra, Bemidji
Miami
Quinny, Colgate, SLU, Harvard, Cornell, Harvard
Plugging in 33/22/11, we're alone in 6th. For 3/2/1, we're tied for 5th still.
After Saturday's games:
Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 CC (8)
3 UND (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 Harvard (7)
3 Mich (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (11)
4 UNO (14)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 BC (12)
4 UNH (13)
Problems:
8 CC / 9 UND
3 Miami / 14 UNO
4 BU / 13 UNH
Flipping UNO/UNH solves both their problems.
CC/UND, well, they can't move UND (host), so they have to move CC. It makes most sense to switch #8 CC with #7 Harvard. And it also makes the least geographical changes. Here's hoping they'd go with that.
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 Harvard (7)
3 UND (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 CC (8)
3 Mich (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Albany
1 Miami (3)
2 Cornell (6)
3 Maine (11)
4 UNH (13)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 MSU (5)
3 BC (12)
4 UNO (14)
Harvard can complain because they play a harder #3 than they should in their own barn. CC is a bit further from home. If UNH wants to complain about being in Albany instead of Worcester, then they're a buncha whiners ;)
we all know it's U-H-N ... c'mon now, you were there ::laugh::
[Q]
Posted by jmh30
After tonight's ECAC results, Clarkson's RPI now stands at .4997. *sigh* [/Q]
Can Clarkson's RPI move up without them playing? (ie depending on outcome of other games?)
Yes - your RPI depends on your opponents' records in all games, not just the ones they play before you hit the golf course...:-D
Just for the record, there are still a couple of comparisons we can flip:
North Dakota: They pretty much need to lose tonight and we need to keep winning. Then we can flip RPI - there's only 0.0004 between us - and take the comparison.
Wisconsin: If we play SLU next week, we can get a COP win and flip that comparison.
All the others strike me as out of reach.
For those that care, the great circle distance from Ithaca to:
Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm
All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.
Larry '72
[quote Larry72]For those that care, the great circle distance from Ithaca to:
Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm
All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.
Larry '72[/quote]
So, what have we learned? Even flying, Grand Forks is still pretty frakkin' far away! :-P :-D
pffft..and the fact that there is no real airport in grand forks....so you have to fly into another city then drive :P
[quote Will][quote Larry72]For those that care, the great circle distance from Ithaca to:
Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm
All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.
Larry '72[/quote]
So, what have we learned? Even flying, Grand Forks is still pretty frakkin' far away! :-P :-D[/quote]
[quote Larry72]
Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm
All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.[/quote]
Dang. This optics jock thought those were nanometers.
The Quantum Regionals!
Pretty ironic that they don't have a real airport, considering that they have such a strong aviation program at UND...
[quote ben03]we all know it's U-H-N ... c'mon now, you were there ::laugh::[/quote]
Well, actually I wasn't. Was there for QU and was watching the UHN game from my dorm lounge. But sorry, I'll never make that mistake again ;)
[quote RichH][quote Larry72]
Grand Forks 931nm - For comparison, Orlando is only 876nm
Green Bay 521nm
Worcester 204nm
Albany 118nm
All distances are in nautical miles and to/from the airport.[/quote]
Dang. This optics jock thought those were nanometers.
The Quantum Regionals![/quote]
So we've got the UND Fighting Infrareds (NCAA can't get too mad at that, can they?), Green Bay is about right, and that leaves New York and Mass. as ultra-blue states.... **] **] **]
With Niagra's loss in the CHA title game today:
RPI:
31 Clarkson .4997
32 Niagara .4982
33 Quinnipiac .4934
A combined 7-1 against them
< sigh >
But Niagara has a quality road win at UHN, good for at least .003
Can we pull Clarkson RPI up enough if we win the ECACs to make them a TUC. RPI is based on 25% winning percentage, 50% opponent winning percentage, and 25% opponent-opponent winning percentage. Since we have played Clarkson 4 times, we might be able to pull them up the 0.0003 points to make them a TUC.
Apparently USCHO considers that neutral. But it was at the Whitt. Anyone know why?
[quote TCHL8842]Can we pull Clarkson RPI up enough if we win the ECACs to make them a TUC. RPI is based on 25% winning percentage, 50% opponent winning percentage, and 25% opponent-opponent winning percentage. Since we have played Clarkson 4 times, we might be able to pull them up the 0.0003 points to make them a TUC.[/quote]
Yes, probably, root for Miami and a few others in this respect too.
Niagra also played QU.. twice. So root for the Q tonight.
But it seems like USCHO is giving Niagra a home bonus for the UNH win whenever I try is. What's going on?? (On both the PWR and RPI screens).
oh, okay
I think the Niagra loss hadn't propogated through to the RPI screen yet.
Now that it has, Niagra is .4961, so the away win brings them to .4991.
So root for UHN (shudder) to keep them top 15. And root for Q to pull them up. And Minn (shudder #2).
And for Clarkson, they only still active teams that can pull them up are us and Miami.
after the niagara loss we lose .0011 and we fall to 8th with 33/22/11
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Minnesota 30 1 27-6-5 .7763 1 .5856*
2 Wisconsin 29 3 25-9-3 .7162 2 .5787*
3t Miami 27 2 25-7-4 .7500 3 .5630
3t Boston University 27 7 23-9-4 .6944 4 .5607
5 Michigan State 25 10t 21-11-8 .6250 5 .5600
6t Harvard 24 14t 18-11-2 .6129 6 .5511
6t Colorado College 24 10t 24-14-2 .6250 8 .5498
6t Cornell 24 6 19-7-4 .7000 9 .5497
9 North Dakota 23 16 24-15-1 .6125 7 .5510
10 Michigan 21 20t 20-13-5 .5921 10 .5487
11t Maine 19 5 26-10-2 .7105 11 .5483
11t Boston College 19 8 22-11-3 .6528 12 .5412
11t New Hampshire 19 12 20-11-7 .6184 13 .5393
14 Nebraska-Omaha 18 22 20-14-6 .5750 14 .5382
15 Denver 16 20t 21-14-3 .5921 15 .5367
16 Dartmouth 15 14t 18-11-2 .6129 16 .5358
17 Northern Michigan 14 18 22-14-2 .6053 18 .5276
18 Ferris State 13 29 17-15-8 .5250 17 .5299
19 Alaska-Fairbanks 12 27 18-15-5 .5395 19 .5275
20 Holy Cross 11 4 24-9-2 .7143 20 .5267*
21 St. Lawrence 10 23 20-15-2 .5676 21 .5208*
22 St. Cloud State 8 25t 19-15-4 .5526 22 .5185
23 Ohio State 7 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5136
24t Providence 6 30t 17-16-3 .5139 25 .5087
24t Lake Superior 6 30t 15-14-7 .5139 26 .5086
26t Vermont 5 25t 18-14-6 .5526 27 .5075
26t Colgate 5 17 19-11-6 .6111 23 .5180
28t Minnesota State 3 32t 17-17-4 .5000 28 .5061
28t Sacred Heart 3 13 20-12-2 .6176 30 .5003
30 Bemidji State 2 19 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4943
31 Mercyhurst 0 9 21-12-1 .6324 29 .5022
with .003/.002/.001 bonuses we are 6th
North Dakota 3 Minnesota State 0 [end of 2nd]
Colorado College 0 Saint Cloud State 0 [end of 1st]
going to update the rankings on the first page after the scores are done. lets try not to update scores here as that is why the previous thread was huge and unwieldy :)
Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.
[quote Trotsky]Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.[/quote]
UMD
SCSU
Mankato
[quote Trotsky]Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.[/quote]
Duluth and St. Cloud I'm pretty sure are no brainers.
NoDak and MSU-M have different reasons for each. While MSU-M being under .500 RPI would be nice, I don't think a loss tonight would do it. Thus, root for them to beat NoDak and help flip the NoDak-CU comparison and keep control of it in CU's hands next week with ND idle.
[quote redhair34][quote Trotsky]Somebody please tell me for whom I am rooting in the remaining games tonight.[/quote]
UMD
SCSU
Mankato[/quote]
Thanks. Go Second-rate Minnesota Schools!!!
NoDak wins 3-0.
UMD scores 3 unanswered goals and takes a 3-1 lead over Denver::twitch:: . A loss for Denver will end their bid for 3 straight NC titles.
Under 7 minutes in the second period at CC, with the hosts trailing St. Cloud 1-0.
Minnesota-Duluth trying for the upset, up 3-1 at Denver.
Now 4-1 UMD.
SCSU 1 CC 0, through 2.
after the nodak win we are alone at #6 with 33/22/11
umd winning would be huge for cornell as we played them, for the ecachl as that would mean denver will likely fall below dartmouth -> one more possible ecachl for a remote chance at an at large if dartmouth doesnt win albany
SCSU goes back up 2-1 with 13:10 to go in Colorado Springs.
UMD up 4-1 and with a 5x3 with 12 minutes to go. Denver in serious trouble.
EAG Goal. 4-2 now with 5 to play.
St. Cloud 3 CC 1, 4 minutes to go.
SCSU 3 CC 1 2:30 left.
5 min major just called on CC's Sertich of all people.
... 1 minute left in DU's season (hopefully), 1 minute...
SCSU 3 CC 1 final
ENG for UMD... now a little pushing and scoving in the corners
5-2 UMD with 0:13 left
UMD 5 DU 2 Final. UMD scoread an ENG with 30 sec remaining
Final in Denver!
#2 & #5 in the WCHA knocked off...
awaiting PWR implications...
[quote DeltaOne81]... 1 minute left in DU's season (hopefully), 1 minute...[/quote]
Man, this game makes Clarkson look tame. These guys have been nailing each other hard since Denver went down by 3. When Denver started to pull their goalie, things settled down but the empty netter brought back the bad blood. These guys play with a lot of anger...makes me think of the Clarkson player repeatedly smashing his stick on the goal post and the ice after their season ended.
Oh well, DU is done.
St. Cloud wins 3-1.
i think all is in the books and in the rankings. updated the first post :)
I'm getting 5th with no bonus and 33-22-11, 6th with 3-2-1.
Now t5th with the 33/22/11 bonus in play. The bottoms of the bracket is getting infested with HEA teams. At first glance looks like Worcester could be CU/Maine and BU/UNO.
1 Minnesota 30 1 27-6-5 .7763 1 .5853*
2 Wisconsin 29 3 25-9-3 .7162 2 .5777*
3t Michigan State 27 9 22-11-8 .6341 3 .5629
3t Boston U 27 7 23-9-4 .6944 4 .5628
5t Cornell 25 6 19-7-4 .7000 8 .5501
5t Miami 25 2 25-7-4 .7500 5 .5627
7t Harvard 24 11 19-11-2 .6250 6 .5557
7t North Dakota 24 12 25-15-1 .6220 7 .5541
9 Michigan 22 20 20-13-5 .5921 9 .5478
10 Colorado C 21 17 24-15-2 .6098 10 .5470
11 New Hampshire 20 14 20-11-7 .6184 12 .5417
12 Maine 19 5 26-10-2 .7105 11 .5456
13t Boston College 18 8 22-11-3 .6528 13 .5414
13t Nebraska-Omaha 18 22 20-14-6 .5750 14 .5376
15 Dartmouth 15 16 18-11-2 .6129 15 .5357
16t Denver 14 21 21-15-3 .5769 17 .5297
16t Northern Mich 14 18 22-14-2 .6053 18 .5278
18t Ferris State 13 29 17-15-8 .5250 19 .5262
18t Holy Cross 13 4 24-9-2 .7143 16 .5300*
20 Alaska-F 11 28 18-16-5 .5256 20 .5251
21 St. Cloud 10 23 20-15-4 .5641 21 .5232
22 St. Lawrence 8 25t 20-16-2 .5526 23 .5183*
23t Ohio State 7 37 15-19-5 .4487 24 .5130
23t Vermont 7 25t 18-14-6 .5526 25 .5089
25t Lake Superior 6 30t 15-14-7 .5139 26 .5087
25t Colgate 6 13 20-11-6 .6216 22 .5217
27 Providence 4 30t 17-16-3 .5139 27 .5087
28t Minnesota St 3 33 17-18-4 .4872 28 .5041
28t Sacred Heart 3 15 20-12-2 .6176 30 .5003
30 Bemidji State 2 19 20-13-3 .5972 33 .4947
31 Mercyhurst 0 10 21-12-1 .6324 29 .5022
Obligatory question:
Does Cornell have shot at a 1st seed?
deleted...erroneous
With 33/22/11 bonus...
[Q]
Rk Team PWR RPI
1 Minnesota 30 .5853*
2 Wisconsin 29 .5777*
3t Michigan State 27 .5629
3t Boston University 27 .5628
5t Cornell 25 .5501
5t Miami 25 .5627
7t Harvard 24 .5557
7t North Dakota 24 .5541
9 Michigan 22 .5478
10 Colorado College 21 .5470
11 New Hampshire 20 .5417
12 Maine 19 .5456
13t Boston College 18 .5414
13t Nebraska-Omaha 18 .5376
15 Dartmouth 15 .5357
16t Denver 14 .5297
16t Northern Michigan14 .5278 [/Q]
With 33/22/11 bonus, as of Sunday night:
Initial 1-16, 2-15, etc placings:
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 Harvard (7)
3 CC (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Albany
1 MSU (3)
2 Miami (6)
3 UNH (11)
4 UNO (14)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 Cornell (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 BC (13)
Problems:
3 MSU / 14 UNO
4 BU / 13 BC
Easy fix: Flipping UNO/BC solves both problems.
Grand Forks:
1 Minn (1)
2 UND (8)
3 Mich (9)
4 AHA/CHA (16)
Green Bay
1 Wisc (2)
2 Harvard (7)
3 CC (10)
4 AHA/CHA (15)
Albany
1 MSU (3)
2 Miami (6)
3 UNH (11)
4 BC (13)
Worcester
1 BU (4)
2 Cornell (5)
3 Maine (12)
4 UNO (14)
BC may not be thrilled with going to Albany instead of Worcester, but big freakin' wah (anyone else notice my comments are getting progressively more sarcastic? ;) )
I am updating the first post as well, so people can just look at that if they want to :)
bc can complain all they want. after todays selection show for bball, at least they werent screwed like cinci
How about some best and worse case scenario's? What is the lowest Cornell could finish? What is the highest? Is there any possibility of Minnesota or Wisconsin falling out of the top two?
After all this speculation, it's almost weird to think that we'll know for certain in a week.
[quote calgARI '07]How about some best and worse case scenario's? What is the lowest Cornell could finish? What is the highest? Is there any possibility of Minnesota or Wisconsin falling out of the top two?[/quote]
Ah, *now* is the time to start asking this ;)
Except, well, now is not the time... because its 12:10 am and I need to get to bed. But assuming that JTW or USCHO gets their You Are the Committee script up soon, you can bet you'll have plenty of answers to this in the next few days.
Wait... do we somehow win the tiebreaker against Miami? I thought it was RPI, which we're behind on.
[quote Dafatone]Wait... do we somehow win the tiebreaker against Miami? I thought it was RPI, which we're behind on.[/quote]we win the pairwise comparison against them... we're behind on RPI, but ahead on TUC win % and COP win %.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/yatc.php
Cornell in 2nd (GO UMD!):
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Harvard defeats Dartmouth.
* ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats North Dakota.
Cornell at 13 :`(:
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
* Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
* Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Holy Cross.
* CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
* CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan.
* CCHA Consolation game: Northern Michigan defeats Michigan State.
* ECAC Semifinal #2: Colgate defeats Cornell.
* ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
* ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Colgate.
* ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Cornell.
* Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
* Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston University defeats New Hampshire.
* Hockey East Championship game: Boston University defeats Maine.
* WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
* WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
* WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
* WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
* WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats St. Cloud State.
Curious to see what other extremes people come up with :)
Used 33/22/11
One more interesting thing:
The most likely finish if we win the semi and lose the final is 8th with Minnesota in 1st. Since Green Bay is slightly closer to Minneapolis than Grand Forks, that would likely put us in Green Bay without Wisconsin. That would be
Minnesota
Cornell
Michigan
Mercyhurst
for a very interesting bracket.
But that is all loser talk :-P
Cornell in 3rd...
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Mercyhurst defeats Bentley.
# Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Holy Cross defeats Connecticut.
# Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Holy Cross defeats Mercyhurst.
# CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
# CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Northern Michigan.
# CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Michigan State.
# CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
# ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
# ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
# ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats Dartmouth.
# ECAC Consolation game: Harvard defeats Colgate.
# Hockey East Semifinal #2: Maine defeats Boston College.
# Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
# Hockey East Championship game: Maine defeats New Hampshire.
# WCHA Play-in #1: St. Cloud State defeats Minnesota-Duluth.
# WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
# WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota defeats St. Cloud State.
# WCHA Championship game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
------------------------------------------------------------------
This seems like a realistic possibility. We need to win ECAC championship and then have UNH knock off BU (I got the same result for .003 vs. .0033 etc. for bonuses).
[quote Tub(a)]One more interesting thing:
The most likely finish if we win the semi and lose the final is 8th with Minnesota in 1st. Since Green Bay is slightly closer to Minneapolis than Grand Forks, that would likely put us in Green Bay without Wisconsin. That would be
Minnesota
Cornell
Michigan
Mercyhurst
for a very interesting bracket. [/quote]
With all the locals angry that we're the Red/White team that showed up.
Actually we can end up 5th and in worcester when loosing the final and allowing for Dartmouth to get in, but it would require upsets in the other leagues.
[Q]
You have specified the following tournament results:
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Bentley defeats Mercyhurst.
Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Connecticut defeats Holy Cross.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Connecticut defeats Bentley.
CCHA Semifinal #2: Michigan State defeats Michigan.
CCHA Semifinal #1: Northern Michigan defeats Miami.
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Northern Michigan.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Miami.
ECAC Semifinal #2: Cornell defeats Colgate.
ECAC Semifinal #1: Dartmouth defeats Harvard.
ECAC Championship game: Dartmouth defeats Cornell.
ECAC Consolation game: Colgate defeats Harvard.
Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston College defeats Maine.
Hockey East Semifinal #1: New Hampshire defeats Boston University.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats New Hampshire.
WCHA Play-in #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats St. Cloud State.
WCHA Semifinal #2: Wisconsin defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Semifinal #1: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Minnesota.
WCHA Championship game: Minnesota-Duluth defeats Wisconsin.
WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Minnesota.
[/Q]
Here's a question... can anyone find a scenario where we're out of the tournament? If the worst anyone can come up with is 13th, then that's not a bad situation. Not that I want to see that, but hey, it should keep us east (assuming that the AHA/Bemidji will be sent west as the patsies)
[quote DeltaOne81]Here's a question... can anyone find a scenario where we're out of the tournament? If the worst anyone can come up with is 13th, then that's not a bad situation. Not that I want to see that, but hey, it should keep us east (assuming that the AHA/Bemidji will be sent west as the patsies)[/quote]
13th would still knock them out if there were 2 surprise winners in the major conference tournaments. 13 + 2 dark horses + 2 minor conference winners = SOL.
[quote Trotsky][quote DeltaOne81]Here's a question... can anyone find a scenario where we're out of the tournament? If the worst anyone can come up with is 13th, then that's not a bad situation. Not that I want to see that, but hey, it should keep us east (assuming that the AHA/Bemidji will be sent west as the patsies)[/quote]
13th would still knock them out if there were 2 surprise winners in the major conference tournaments. 13 + 2 dark horses + 2 minor conference winners = SOL.[/quote]
Yeah, but the #13 scenario layed out by Tub(a) has Miami, Dartmouth, BU, & Minn. Which is at most 1 upset, but Dartmouth with 2 wins is probably in anyway.
We all probably agree that right now winning the ECACs is the most important goal. That being said, anyone care to figure out what the worst possible seed we could have in the tournament would be, assuming we win our next two?
Thanks.
Andy
andy, you probably already have done this but... check out the possibilities thread :)
updated the first post with post-scsu win rankings :)
For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.
double posted
[quote nyc94]For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.[/quote]
yeah it was a joke obviously, i can just make them bold
[quote jy3][quote nyc94]For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.[/quote]
yeah it was a joke obviously, i can just make them bold[/quote]
Oh I got the joke :-) it's just now I actually want to read the numbers without my face an inch from the screen. :-)
[quote nyc94][quote jy3][quote nyc94]For what it's worth, the pink lettering barely shows up on my screen. Maybe find something closer to crimson.[/quote]
yeah it was a joke obviously, i can just make them bold[/quote]
Oh I got the joke :-) it's just now I actually want to read the numbers without my face an inch from the screen. :-)[/quote]
did the bold help?
i think all the early games are in, rankings updated
[quote jy3]did the bold help?[/quote]
Since you asked, no, not really. It could just be the combination of my screen and the lighting conditions. I just tried turning out the lights and I can see it a little better. :-)
going to wait until all games are final for 2nite. right now cornell is tied for 5th with SUCKS. north dakota losing tomorrow will help us flip that comparison. cornell just needs to win and get some help to get a #1 seed. LGR!
Cross-posted from the other scores thread. I haven't seen how Cornell can get a number one seed yet...
----------------------------------------
t Root against North Dakota. They are the only team that can hurt us from my rough calculations. Regardless of who wins this WCHA game or the ECACHL, if North Dakota wins Cornell is heading west on a 3/2/1 bonus.
On a 33/22/11 A Cornell win puts them in Albany as 5, and a loss puts them west.
On any other bonus higher (or lower) than 33/22/11 Cornell appears to be stuck in 7th and headed west regardless of the ECACHL result.
It is still impossible to figure out every permutation, but these are the most likely outcomes as of right now.
tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east
I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...
[quote abmarks]tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east
I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...[/quote]
i *think* that was ruined by north dakota winning 2nite. i might be wrong...
scsu upsets #1 minne.
this could mean bad things for cornell as und-scsu seems unlikely to have another upset but who knows.
Here is a scenario where we can be a #1 seed
Pairwise Comparisons
Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Minnesota (Mn) 29 .5839*
2 Wisconsin (Wi) 28 .5723*
3 Michigan State (MS) 27 .5709
4t Cornell (Cr) 25 .5598
4t Miami (Mm) 25 .5618
6 Boston University (BU) 24 .5598
7t Harvard (Ha) 22 .5570
7t North Dakota (ND) 22 .5538
9t Boston College (BC) 20 .5504
9t Michigan (Mi) 20 .5484
11 Colorado College (CC) 18 .5469
12 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 17 .5358
13 New Hampshire (NH) 16 .5364
14t St. Cloud State (SC) 15 .5327
14t Holy Cross (HC) 15 .5226
14t Maine (Me) 15 .5431
28 Bemidji State (BS) 3 .4936
30 Bentley (By) 0 .4749
Quality-Win Bonus Factors
You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.0033 per quality road win
.0022 per quality neutral-ice win
.0011 per quality home win.
User-Specified Results
You have specified the following tournament results:
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.
[quote nshapiro]Here is a scenario where we can be a #1 seed
Pairwise Comparisons
Rk Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Minnesota (Mn) 29 .5839*
2 Wisconsin (Wi) 28 .5723*
3 Michigan State (MS) 27 .5709
4t Cornell (Cr) 25 .5598
4t Miami (Mm) 25 .5618
6 Boston University (BU) 24 .5598
7t Harvard (Ha) 22 .5570
7t North Dakota (ND) 22 .5538
9t Boston College (BC) 20 .5504
9t Michigan (Mi) 20 .5484
11 Colorado College (CC) 18 .5469
12 Nebraska-Omaha (NO) 17 .5358
13 New Hampshire (NH) 16 .5364
14t St. Cloud State (SC) 15 .5327
14t Holy Cross (HC) 15 .5226
14t Maine (Me) 15 .5431
28 Bemidji State (BS) 3 .4936
30 Bentley (By) 0 .4749
Quality-Win Bonus Factors
You have specified the following weights for quality win bonuses:
.0033 per quality road win
.0022 per quality neutral-ice win
.0011 per quality home win.
User-Specified Results
You have specified the following tournament results:
CCHA Championship game: Michigan State defeats Miami.
CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
ECACHL Championship game: Cornell defeats Harvard.
ECACHL Consolation game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth.
Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats North Dakota.
WCHA Consolation game: Minnesota defeats Wisconsin.
Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Bentley defeats Holy Cross.[/quote]
I just ran one with BU winning that put us in Worcester.
Go Bentley and SCSU!
[quote abmarks]tuba- assuming no upsets here on out and minny winning tonight, 33/22/11 makes us #6 overall - and east
I played with a bunch of things and cant find any #1seed scenario...[/quote]
From the other thread, with a 33/22/11 the best we can do is 5 (by 0.0001). If it's 3/2/1, we can finish 4. To do that, we need MSU to beat Miami, SCSU to beat UND, BC to beat BU, and Colgate to beat Dartmouth. Don't hold your breath. More likely, we finish 5th or 6th.
If we lose, we drop to 8th in pretty much any combination of games I've found. Since UND is in the same band as us, in all likelihood, that means we go to Green Bay.
Just win.
EDIT: I assumed HC beats Bentley. If Bentley wins, it appears that we can get the 1 seed with a 33/22/11 (as noted above).
Jeff, If ties are broken by RPI then I agree...but if ties are broken by the head-to-head pairwise comparison, as implied by the ordering from USCHO, then we can be a 4 seed - see my previous post just above
Edit - never mind...just saw your edit
ok, gonna update the first post with 33/22/11 and 3/2/1
I know that it is meaningless, but that does anyone have the ability to rerun the PWR calculation including Friday's games? I am curious as to the effect of HC's victory and the CCHA implosion on the placings.
[quote ursaminor]I know that it is meaningless, but that does anyone have the ability to rerun the PWR calculation including Friday's games? I am curious as to the effect of HC's victory and the CCHA implosion on the placings.[/quote]
Looks like http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml is still pulling results from CHN so Fridays games are included.
[quote nyc94][quote ursaminor]I know that it is meaningless, but that does anyone have the ability to rerun the PWR calculation including Friday's games? I am curious as to the effect of HC's victory and the CCHA implosion on the placings.[/quote]
Looks like http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml is still pulling results from CHN so Fridays games are included.[/quote]
Oh, really? That shouldn't be happening.
But you can use the DIY script at the address above to add the games by hand.
[quote jtwcornell91]Oh, really? That shouldn't be happening.
But you can use the DIY script at the address above to add the games by hand.[/quote]
I was going to suggest entering the results manually and was checking past results to make sure I got the team abbreviations and formatting correct. Last night's results are there.
[quote nyc94][quote jtwcornell91]Oh, really? That shouldn't be happening.
But you can use the DIY script at the address above to add the games by hand.[/quote]
I was going to suggest entering the results manually and was checking past results to make sure I got the team abbreviations and formatting correct. Last night's results are there.[/quote]
Here those are, BTW, now that I've taken them out of the default file.
20060324 BC 5 Mm 0 nc
20060324 HC 4 Mn 3 nc
20060324 Mi 1 ND 5 NC
20060324 NO 2 BU 9 nc
Thanks nyc94 and jtwcornell91.