Just found this. http://www.uscho.com/news/id,11635/PairWiseSurprise.html
You Might Think They're NCAA-Bound, But The PairWise Disagrees
No. 15 (tie) Cornell: Simply put, the Big Red haven't played anybody yet. Cornell has a 2-1-1 record against TUCs, and while the winning percentage there (.6250) is good, the problem is that there are only four games in there. That's right — Cornell has only played four of its 17 games this season against teams with a .500 RPI or better (two against Michigan State, one against Harvard, and one against Rensselaer). A quick look at the Big Red's schedule shows why: Cornell's ECACHL schedule is ridiculously back-loaded. The Big Red's remaining opponents include Clarkson (twice), St. Lawrence (twice), Colgate (twice), Harvard and Rensselaer, all currently TUCs. A reasonable record in those games would enhance the Big Red's chances for an at-large bid if the team doesn't win the ECACHL tournament.
[quote cth95]A reasonable record in those games would enhance the Big Red's chances for an at-large bid if the team doesn't win the ECACHL tournament.[/quote]
And an "unreasonable" record in those games would mean we deserve to stay home.
Nothing new or surprising in that quote. We haven't played the tough part of our conference schedule yet and as Al says if we don't do well in that part we won't deserve to play for the national championship.
Gates ranking surprised me a bit - I guess I hadn't payed close attention to who they've played and beaten. Also MSU at #5 is a shock, since for a while there it looked like they were playing well below expectations. In both cases the PWR rank isn't too far away from the KRACH rank, so it makes sense.
Lot's of hockey left to be played. A timely ten game win streak would do wonders for our tournament chances. (Especially a ten game streak starting in March...)
How does the number of games vs TUC affect our PWR, except through the strength of schedule part of the RPI? This isn't lacrosse where SoS is the main criterion. I guess they're trying to say our RPI is worse than just looking at our record would lead you to believe, but number of games vs TUC is not a criterion.
[quote jtwcornell91]How does the number of games vs TUC affect our PWR, except through the strength of schedule part of the RPI? This isn't lacrosse where SoS is the main criterion. I guess they're trying to say our RPI is worse than just looking at our record would lead you to believe, but number of games vs TUC is not a criterion.[/quote]
Theres also the winning percentage against TUCs point in the PWR. Looking at the comparisons with all the people above us, we lose TUC and RPI to all of them.
But John's point is that it doesn't matter whether we are 2-1-1 against TUCs or 8-4-4. The TUC criteria would be the same either way. Our RPI would likely be a lot higher though.
[quote KeithK]But John's point is that it doesn't matter whether we are 2-1-1 against TUCs or 8-4-4. The TUC criteria would be the same either way. Our RPI would likely be a lot higher though.[/quote]
Yeah, I understood that.
Well I think 2 wins against SLU will really help, they are currently number 3 in the PWR ranking. Winning against SLU alone will significantly boost our RPI. Of the ECAC teams with a better RPI then us, it is only Harvard and SLU. For some reason, I think the 2 weekends against the North Country and the Harvard game will determine if we make it in or not. If we sweep those 5 games, I think we could be maybe a number 2 seed. The losses to Princeton and Union are going to kill us if we are a bubble team for making the tourney this year. Like everyone said there is still a lot of hockey to be played, hopefully we can win the same percentage of the games as we did in the first half.
We currently lose 10 PWR comparisons by having the lower RPI, if this changes for the better which it should based on who left we have left, we can gain back quite a few comparisons.
For the record, the PWR rankings cited in the article do not all match USCHO's PWR page. For example, on the ranking page SLU is listed as #6 (tie), not #3. I suspect the article was written a few days ago and is a little out of date.
I thikn it's also relevant to point out that if we had played more games against TUCs and had the same record (overall and TUC pct.), our PWR standing might be better due to H2H effects. The hypothetical extra TUC wins could swing individual comparisons that we currently tie or lose. Not that I think the author is making this point - he's just making the easy SoS argument.
Well the tie breaker on even comparisons is RPI and currently we are currently 21 in this ranking. With a better RPI even though I have not looked at it closely I think we would take another 5-6 comparisons. This weekend is just as big of a weekend as the MSU weekend. If we play as well as we seem them play in stretches, our spot in the PWR ranking will be significantly higher.
I think the article already factored in the 3-2-1 bonus
That would make SLU the third ranked PWR team
I've noticed that the PWR published on www.siouxsports.com matches exactly with the USCHO one, but the www.rpihockey.net one seems to have some differences.
[quote TCHL8842]Well I think 2 wins against SLU will really help, they are currently number 3 in the PWR ranking. Winning against SLU alone will significantly boost our RPI. [/quote]
Winning against SLU vs someone else doesn't matter, that's not how the mechanics of RPI work. If you're 20 - 10 at the end of the year it doesn't matter how those wins and losses are distributed. Against the same set of opponents you can flip the 10 losses to 10 entirely different teams and still have the same RPI.
[Q]
Winning against SLU vs someone else doesn't matter, that's not how the mechanics of RPI work. If you're 20 - 10 at the end of the year it doesn't matter how those wins and losses are distributed. Against the same set of opponents you can flip the 10 losses to 10 entirely different teams and still have the same RPI.
[/Q]
If the RPI is calculated by averaging the winning percentage of your opponents, as stated in the USCHO explanation, then it does matter slightly.
If every team played the same number of games, then who you lose to wouldn't matter. Since the Ivies play fewer games, the optimal strategy would be to have the 10 losses be against the Ivy teams, since beating them would have more of an effect on an Ivy team's winning percentage.
I seem to recall that your games are not included in an opponents record when computing OppWin% and OppOppWin%, in order to avoid double counting. If I am remembering correctly then it really does not matter who you beat.
[quote KeithK]I seem to recall that your games are not included in an opponents record when computing OppWin% and OppOppWin%, in order to avoid double counting. If I am remembering correctly then it really does not matter who you beat.[/quote]
You are correct, those games are subtracted.
Dont look now, but MSU is suddenly #9 in the RPI and #4 in the PWR.
[quote French Rage]Dont look now, but MSU is suddenly #9 in the RPI and #4 in the PWR.[/quote]
Root for MSU against Ferris and LSSU (last couple weekends). If they win those games (or 1-01 against LSSU), and we play decent down the stretch, that should give us two more comparisons.
QuoteDeltaOne81: Root for MSU against Ferris and LSSU (last couple weekends). If they win those games (or 1-01 against LSSU), and we play decent down the stretch, that should give us two more comparisons.
If we play well down the stretch we'll probably pick up those comparisons anyway. With the expected RPI bonus (.0033,.0022,.0011) we're winning the Ferris comparison right now.
Cornell is likely, with decent play, to pick up 4 or 5 comparisons. Just tonight (Sat) for example, as long as there's a winner in the VT-BC game we'll probably pick up one of those. A Colgate victory over St Law will bring us just a hair short of flipping the SLU comparison, and if we beat Hahvahd at home that will probably flip both Hahvahd and BU. The only ones that look untouchable are WI, Miami, MN and CC.
MSU has a strong schedule remaining, so it will be hard to catch them on RPI, but it's possible. I'd go the other way than you: root against MSU for the rest of the season. And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.
[quote Ken '70]And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.[/quote]
More to the point, root for Niagara to win the CHA tournament, thus granting them automatic TUC status regardless of RPI.
[quote Will][quote Ken '70]And hope Dartmouth drops from TUC and Niagara can find its way back in.[/quote]
More to the point, root for Niagara to win the CHA tournament, thus granting them automatic TUC status regardless of RPI.[/quote]
TUC, though, isn't that important for us this year. Of the 13 comparisons we're losing, every one could be flipped just by winning RPI. Only 2 comparisons, Harvard and BC, can be flipped just by winning TUC.
However, only 8 of those potential RPI flips are within reason (currently below .5600 to our .5358, with bonus). The ones where RPI flips are probably unreasonable are WI, Miami, CC, MN and SLU. But the overall SLU comparison can be flipped by any 2 of 3 of the remaining criteria, all of which are within reach.
Only two comparisons can be flipped by COP alone, that's MN and BU. For the former it would require MN to split, or worse, their season finale weekend with UMD while we beat Union. For the latter we need to beat Harvard while BU doesn't beat Harvard in the Beanpot.
Only one comparison can be flipped by H2H alone: Harvard.
It's really seems to be mostly about RPI from here on out.
Let's use this thread to discuss PWR. A new one started yesterday, but that one seems to have a drunk as its main contributor.
Cornell had almost the perfect day yesterday re: PWR. They had picked up 4 comparisons as a result of the afternoon games (they were winning both LSSU and Ferris before the evening games started). But the night games also helped a lot.
Colgate def. SLU - puts the SLU comp. in reach, despite SLU's insurmountable RPI advantage
Alaska Fairbanks def. OSU - flipped the RPI and the comparison to Cornell
Neb. Omaha def. MSU - tightens up the RPI difference a lot. Downside is MSU's loss hurts Cornell's Op %, but the prospect of winning the MSU comparison is far more important. That one may be the key to a 6th seed and eastern ice.
Niagara won - not a big deal, but helps Cornell's Op % and may eventually get Niagara to TUC
Yale def. RPI - dropping RPI from TUC and erasing a TUC tie from Cornell's record
BC def. Vermont - we just needed a winner in this one, didn't matter who. The TUC critria vs. UVM got stronger and the RPI flipped, giving Cornell the comparison
ME def. PVD - not huge, but it keeps a hot PVD at bay
HC def. Darmoth - bringing the Big Green to the brink of TUC oblivion and erasing one of Cornell's two TUC losses. TUC isn't a factor in Cornell winning any new comparisons, but it is a big factor in holding on to some of the ones we already have.
Of course, Cornell has to keep winning. Last year after the last weekend series in January Cornell was 15-4-2 and had a .5795 RPI (incl. bonus). From then through the Clarkson playoff series on March 12 Cornell went 8-0-1 but their RPI only went up to .5835, a .004 gain. So flipping RPI comparisons are not just about what you do, you need the other teams to come back to you.
One of the best days for the out-of-town scores you'll see, as a Cornell fan. Even MI lost, making that comparison somewhat stronger.
i had the same thought last night about things going the way of the big red in the out of town score board. pretty sweet.
And the upshot of all that is that with a .003/.002/.001, Cornell wins the 7th place tie with Michigan:
28 Wisco
27 Minny
26 Miami
24 BC
22 CC
22 MSU
20 Cornell
20 Michigan
Cornell's record is listed as 12-4-2 on the USCHO PWR site: http://www.uscho.com/polls/?data=pwr1m. I assume that's because the RIT game is dropped?
Oh come on - someone tell me that the RIT game counts. just cuz they play a couple D3 games doesnt make them not a D1 school. ??
eh
They're a D1 school. They're just in a probationary period for the first 2 (?) years, in which they are not eligible for the NCAA tournament, and therefore games against them do not count in whether other teams are eligible.
Jayson Moy did a chat for USCHO/CSTV today - see http://www.cstv.com/chat/012006aab.html
Of note at the bottom:
Mike Lentz (Lakeville, MN): Just because I'm curious who you think will be in there at the end, who's your picks to be in the Final Four?
Jayson Moy: Love the way Minnesota is playing right now. I love the way Wisconsin has looked all year. I'll take the two of them to start. And then I'll throw in Cornell, who seem to be just starting to gear up, and the fourth team, well, I'll go with Miami because I love their defense, Andy Greene and two goalies you can't go wrong with.
Really interesting weekend coming up in terms of PWR (ranks presume a 3/2/1 bonus).
#1 WI v. #3 MN (2 games)
#2 MI v. #5 FSU (2)
#4 BC v. #17 BU (1)
#7 UM v. #8 MSU (2)
#11 ND v. #24 SCSU (2)
#12 SLU v. #28 CCT (2)
#13 UNO v. #25 UAF (2)
#15 UNH v. #18 PC (1)
Everything could get mixed up this weekend. Three pairs or top ten teams playing series is really amazing. Time for the CCHA teams to start beating each other up.
as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite.
Bonus Weight
The committee adds a bonus to a team's RPI for "good wins." The amount of the bonus is kept secret, but you can add your best guess here and see how it would affect the PWR.
Road Neutral Home
(Switch To: Individual Comparisons Table)
.0003/2/1
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 1 18-4-2 .7917 1 .6086
2 Miami 27 3 17-4-4 .7600 2 .5820
3 Minnesota 26 6 16-6-4 .6923 3 .5792
4 Boston College 24 2 16-4-2 .7727 4 .5652
5t Michigan 21 14t 14-9-1 .6042 7 .5521
5t Ferris State 21 22t 12-8-6 .5769 9 .5479
5t Cornell 21 4 12-4-2 .7222 11 .5389
8 Colorado College 20 10t 17-10-1 .6250 8 .5516
9 Michigan State 19 24 14-10-5 .5690 12 .5379
10 North Dakota 18 10t 17-10-1 .6250 6 .5524
11t St. Lawrence 17 13 13-8-1 .6136 5 .5546
11t Nebraska-Omaha 17 27t 13-11-2 .5385 13 .5365
13 Harvard 16 21 10-7-2 .5789 18 .5333
14 Northern Michigan 15 26 14-11-1 .5577 14 .5351
15 New Hampshire 14 17 13-8-4 .6000 22 .5256
16t Boston University 13 18 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5351
16t Ohio State 13 27t 12-10-4 .5385 17 .5341
18 Providence 11 19t 13-9-1 .5870 10 .5411
19t Vermont 10 7 15-7-2 .6667 16 .5348
19t Denver 10 22t 14-10-2 .5769 19 .5322
21 Lake Superior 9 14t 12-7-5 .6042 20 .5322
22t Maine 8 10t 15-9-0 .6250 21 .5271
22t Bowling Green 8 36 12-14-1 .4630 27 .5103
24 St. Cloud State 7 25 12-9-3 .5625 23 .5222
25 Alaska-Fairbanks 6 32t 10-11-3 .4792 24 .5208
26 Colgate 4 9 13-6-5 .6458 25 .5177
27 Holy Cross 2 5 15-6-1 .7045 26 .5154
28 Clarkson 1 30 11-10-2 .5217 28 .5050
29 Dartmouth 0 37 8-10-1 .4474 29 .5050
[quote jy3]as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite (sic).[/quote]
Add the bonus. Cornell went down from 7 to 9 (now losing a 3 way tie for 7).
Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.
[quote TCHL8842]Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.[/quote]
it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.
[quote A-19]it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.[/quote]Any bracket that has us in Albany is fine by me.
[quote A-19][quote TCHL8842]Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.[/quote]
it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.[/quote]
If you threw in UNH as the 4 it'd be some party, but how do you reach that outcome? If MN is the one seed there, they'd have to be the one behind UW and another WCHA team. Right now MN would go to the ND regional, Miami would be in Albany, and BC would be in Worcester.
Minnesota would have to fall to a 2 seed before they end up out here if BC and Miami maintain position. Of course at this point it's just as likely that Cornell could be in a regional with pretty much any of the top 25 teams as being in the "revenge" region.
[quote Chris '03][quote jy3]as implied by ferris at #5, ferris beating michigan improved cornell 2nite (sic).[/quote]
Add the bonus. Cornell went down from 7 to 9 (now losing a 3 way tie for 7).[/quote]
i did, i think i did .0003/2/1 instead of .003/2/1 :)
[quote Chris '03][quote A-19][quote TCHL8842]Interesting that the newest brackets on USCHO has us as #8 playing #9 MSU.[/quote]
it could be the case this year that we're in albany for the ncaas with a bracket consisting of minnesota, cu, msu and some other team. that would be an interesting chance at revenge.[/quote]
If you threw in UNH as the 4 it'd be some party, but how do you reach that outcome? If MN is the one seed there, they'd have to be the one behind UW and another WCHA team. Right now MN would go to the ND regional, Miami would be in Albany, and BC would be in Worcester.
Minnesota would have to fall to a 2 seed before they end up out here if BC and Miami maintain position. Of course at this point it's just as likely that Cornell could be in a regional with pretty much any of the top 25 teams as being in the "revenge" region.[/quote]
In my opinion, this is not the year to get "revenge" against MN, I would rather wait until they don't have Kessel, Potulny or Irmen. They are a much better team than last year, without question. Well, that, and I don't think that our team is good enough to beat them. We have been giving up far too many odd man rushes off of overcommiting into the offensive zone and turning the puck over, at least like 2-3 per game, and the Gophers would bury those pucks. The Gophers and CC are teams that I do not want to see in our bracket come March (Also, look out for St. Cloud who is sneaky-good and on an influential run right now).
Something interesting...
In USCHO's "bracketology", only one hockey east team gets in. Sure, it's way too early to tell much, and it isn't exactly a great source, but it's nice to see hockey east's poor interconference record actually reflected for once.
A tournament with 4 ECAC teams and 1 HE team would be so hot.
Also one where we and Colgate are both in Albany.
granted harvard would be seeded ahead of us for that particular bracket to work... but i think i can live with them going out west instead of us:-)
Colgate is shown only because the bracket has to include the ECAC tournament winner. USCHO puts the current league point leader into that role by default.
Colgate is decidedly not "in" in any real world sense. They would have to win the ECAC tournamentt to get in, but you could put Brown or Princeton there just as well and get 4 ECAC teams in the NCAAs.
HE is likely to get 2 teams. With expected bonuses UNH is the last the at large qualifying today.
i think unh is the 15 seed if u use .003/2/1 today. tOSU is 14 so they are last out by colgate being in. of interesting note will be how far colgate will climb if they win out except against cornell (i hope) and then if they lose in the albany finals (to cornell i would hope! :)). i would be curious to see...no woofing intended woofing gods!
LGR!
You're right about UNH, I took a quick look and saw 14 next to them but didn't notice it was a tie that they would lose.
I use .33/.22/.11. Some post on USCHO said that someone examined the entrails of last year's RPI movements and discovered this was the more exact weighting. Who knows if it was true then and if the committee would not adjust the weighting year to year anyway?
Colgate would have to raise their RPI by about .02 to get in the hunt for an at large. They're also losing TUC quite badly to many teams they'd have to overtake. That's a lot of wood to chop. Near flawless in remainder of regular season, then meeting teams with high win %s in playoffs and losing to a non-TUC in final. Or something close to that.
[quote Ken '70]You're right about UNH, I took a quick look and saw 14 next to them but didn't notice it was a tie that they would lose.
I use .33/.22/.11. Some post on USCHO said that someone examined the entrails of last year's RPI movements and discovered this was the more exact weighting. Who knows if it was true then and if the committee would not adjust the weighting year to year anyway?
Colgate would have to raise their RPI by about .02 to get in the hunt for an at large. They're also losing TUC quite badly to many teams they'd have to overtake. That's a lot of wood to chop. Near flawless in remainder of regular season, then meeting teams with high win %s in playoffs and losing to a non-TUC in final. Or something close to that.[/quote]
i tend to use 0.0033/22/11 myself as well. 'gate could do it, but it will be a tough task. it would be sweet to have 4 ecac teams in it, though i fear that will be unlikely. i just want cornell to make it above all else of course :)
a win against clarkson will help slu(T) this weekend as that will improve their tuc status. we shall see.
the reason they claim there are 4 ecac teams in is because they give the autobid to whoever is currently winning the division, which happens to be 'gate for ecac
Games of interest:
Miami def. Ferris: time to start realing Ferris back
MI - MSU TIE: only result that helps Cornell
Clarkson def. SLU: keep Clarkson TUC
Union def. Darmoth: drop Big Green from TUC
BU def. BC: keep TUC advantage and comparison
UMD def. Mn St: jeez, can these guys ever win another game?
Also:
Hahvahd def. RPI: keep RPI from TUC
AF def. NO: keeps NO at bay on TUC and RPI
St CL def. UND: we can dream can't we? The RPI dif. is only(?) .015
I'd expect Cornell to take some hits on these tonight and maybe drop a couple comparisons, MI and BC being the most likely. A bad night and we're back on the bubble.
[quote Ken '70]Games of interest:
Miami def. Ferris: time to start realing Ferris back
MI - MSU TIE: only result that helps Cornell
Clarkson def. SLU: keep Clarkson TUC
Union def. Darmoth: drop Big Green from TUC
BU def. BC: keep TUC advantage and comparison
UMD def. Mn St: jeez, can these guys ever win another game?
Also:
Hahvahd def. RPI: keep RPI from TUC
AF def. NO: keeps NO at bay on TUC and RPI
St CL def. UND: we can dream can't we? The RPI dif. is only(?) .015
I'd expect Cornell to take some hits on these tonight and maybe drop a couple comparisons, MI and BC being the most likely. A bad night and we're back on the bubble.[/quote]
Pretty good night so far. Union and UMD didn't come through, but six out of eight (so far) ain't bad. Biggest problem is the hit on RPI from playing Brown, but can't do much about that.
.003/.002/.001 has us last in a three-way tie for 9th (a.k.a., 11th) with OSU and Harvard. Interesting pair comparisons:
Even though BC is #3, we're ahead in the comparison 2-1.
Even though Michigan is #7, we're ahead there too, 2-1.
OTOH, we trail #14 NoDak, 2-1 (though NoDak is probably irredeemable in record v. TUC).
The Harvard comparison is a virtual deal heat: 2-2, with Harvard ahead in RPI by only .013. Harvard still has the Beanpot to either put their TUC out of reach or, if they get destroyed, knock them down and give Cornell the comparison (assuming Cornell can win F N' F and keep the H2H comparison).
OSU has only a .017 lead in RPI.
BU and Cornell are tied 1-1 with BU's point coming on COp. So, if Harvard does win a 'Pot game with BU, we get the consolation of perhaps overtaking BU.
Last night was another good one for out of town results, we even got the beneficial tie between MI and MSU, but we still dropped three comparisons overall and our RPI dropped .0015. Such is the nature of the RPI and playing a 3-12-5 team as well as having some games like BC-BU where any winner will cause a comparison loss. But there's more good news than bad:
- RPI: the combined record of our remaining regular season Ops is .576, there are no more Browns
- Of the 11 comparisons we're losing, all can be flipped by just RPI, and 7 of those are within reach. Of those 7, the greatest distance is just .0117, and that's BU which can be flipped by COP alone - go Harvard!
- The RPI delta to 3 of the 7 is trivial: NO, OSU and HA. All could be flipped tonight
- The RPI delta to 2 is bordering on trivial: Ferris and MSU and could be closed within two games
- Even NoDak is now within reach. Their RPI dropped .0049 just last night with their loss to SCSU. The delta is just .0106
Though dropping 3 comparisons may seem like evidence to the contrary, last night was a strategic success.
Games of interest tonight:
- MI def. MSU: Due to last nights tie it's now OK for MI to go ahead and beat MSU
- Miami def. Ferris: Close the RPI gap
- ND def. OSU: RPI, flip the comparison
- AF def. NO: RPI, flip the comparison
- Clarkson def. SLU: SLU comp flipped to us last night. Another Clarkson win helps keep it that way.
- RPI def. Darmoth: Drop Darmoth from TUC, or a step in that direction
- UMASS def. BU: If HA can't take care of BU in B'pot, this helps bring BU's RPI closer
- SCSU def. NoDak: RPI delta
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI and moves NI closer to TUC
- HA def. Union: Pretty much the nail in the coffin for Union getting back to TUC
[quote Ken '79]
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI [/quote]
Please help me out. We had the same record in the same number of games against each team. Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum? In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?
nevermind.
[quote Trotsky][quote Ken '79]
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI [/quote]
Please help me out. We had the same record in the same number of games against each team. Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum? In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?[/quote]
You are correct.
In fact QU winning would actually help us more, because it would not only push up our Opp's winning percentage, but it would do the same for all ECAC teams, which would then push up our opponent's opponent's winning percentage, giving us a few more RPI points.
But... there's another consideration from a PWR perspective though, which is record against TUC. If Niagra pulls itself up to a TUC, that will give us two more wins in that column. Which could pull us up much more sigifnicant than a few ten-thousandths of a point in RPI.
But (final 'but')... it won't. Of all the comparisons we lose, we win the TUC column anyway in all but 3 of them - Wisconsin, Miami, and Harvard. Harvard is the only one that we can flip by winning the TUC anyway, but we can win that a lot easier by beating them ;). So, if we keep playing well, all the TUC "luck" in the world seems mostly irrelevant (Dartmouth dropping out, Niagra making it in, etc). Not that it can hurt.
[quote Trotsky][quote Ken '79]
- Niagara def. Quin: Helps our RPI [/quote]
Please help me out. We had the same record in the same number of games against each team. Why does it affect our RPI either way who wins -- isn't it zero-sum? In fact, wouldn't we root for QU on the chance that we have to roll up more games against them in the playoffs?[/quote]
It's due to relativeness: Our RPI is only important relative to other teams' RPI, obviously. When QU loses all teams that played QU lose in the SOS catagory and the same would be true, of course, for Niagara. While we get a zero-sum effect from a QU-NI game, teams that have not played QU and NI equally, as we have, don't. MI and HA are examples, and we are in close competition with both. Both played QU twice, neither played Niagara. Therefore our RPI relative to both is advantaged by a theoretical zero-sum outcome for us (NI wins and QU loses), as you point out, which is not a zero-sum outcome for them (QU loses, hurting their SOS rating, with no compensating NI games like we have).
I should have said "Helps our relative RPI" to have made it clearer.
QuoteDeltaOne81: But (final 'but')... it won't. Of all the comparisons we lose, we win the TUC column anyway in all but 3 of them - Wisconsin, Miami, and Harvard. Harvard is the only one that we can flip by winning the TUC anyway, but we can win that a lot easier by beating them ;). So, if we keep playing well, all the TUC "luck" in the world seems mostly irrelevant (Dartmouth dropping out, Niagra making it in, etc). Not that it can hurt.
Getting an at-large, or having a high seed or eastern ice, is as much a consideration of holding onto the comparisons you are currently winning as it is winning additional ones.
Of the 17 comparisons we are currently winning, 9 can be lost by just by a swing in TUC. The BC comparison, in particular, is hanging in the balance based on TUC. The others that we could lose just on a TUC swing are MI, PVD, SLU, DU, SCSU, Cogate, UVM and HC.
TUC is very important, and Niagara getting there is insurance against road, or home, losses in any of our remaining 6 TUC games.
In the strangely sensitive world of PWR, last night's results (Princeton loss to Robert Morris and Mich. win over WMU) dropped us from 10th to 13th with .003/.002/.001 bonuses and from 10th to 17th with .0004/.0025/.0001. As a KRACH advocate, I note that last night's results dropped us from 11th to 12th.
One might may the argument that any team that loses to a team that loses to Robert Morris should automatically be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. :-)
[quote Trotsky]One might may the argument that any team that loses to a team that loses to Robert Morris should automatically be eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. :-)[/quote]
Hmmmm...
I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.
[quote Section A Banshee]
I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]
With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon. :-P
[quote Jeff Hopkins '82][quote Section A Banshee]
I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]
With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon. :-P[/quote]
Or Paul Erdõs: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erd%C5%91s_number
[quote Jeff Hopkins '82][quote Section A Banshee]
I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]
With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon. :-P[/quote]
Of course, the fact that you can do that from any team to any other team is what makes everyone's KRACH finite.
[quote Jeff Hopkins '82][quote Section A Banshee]
I noticed that this year Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State. I was hoping WMU might have taken down someone more impressive.[/quote]
With that kind of a sequence, I was expecting we'd end up at Kevin Bacon. :-P[/quote]
OK, if you insist:
Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State, which defeated Cornell, which was watched at Yale by me, who knows Phil, owner of the Towne Crier Cafe in Pawling, NY, where a certain duo occasionally sing...and that duo would be Michael and Kevin Bacon.
[quote Killer]OK, if you insist:
Robert Morris has defeated Western Michigan, which defeated..... uh, Michigan State, which defeated Cornell, which was watched at Yale by me, who knows Phil, owner of the Towne Crier Cafe in Pawling, NY, where a certain duo occasionally sing...and that duo would be Michael and Kevin Bacon.[/quote]
You need to get out more.
[q]You need to get out more.[/q]Says the person with 1800 posts on this forum... :-P
someone with 1600+ is no one to talk...
Heh. I almost added that to my post.
[quote KeithK][q]You need to get out more.[/q]Says the person with 1800 posts on this forum... :-P[/quote]
Hey, I never denied that I should get out more too. :-D
The traveling Faithful getting some recognition as Moy moves the 4-seed to the Albany regional to boost attendance.
http://www.uscho.com/news/id,11773/BracketologyFeb12006.html
[quote BCrespi]The traveling Faithful getting some recognition as Moy moves the 4-seed to the Albany regional to boost attendance.
http://www.uscho.com/news/id,11773/BracketologyFeb12006.html[/quote]
yeah except when they add bonuses, WE'RE NOT EVEN IN THE TOURNEY :(
[quote Jason L][quote BCrespi]The traveling Faithful getting some recognition as Moy moves the 4-seed to the Albany regional to boost attendance.
http://www.uscho.com/news/id,11773/BracketologyFeb12006.html[/quote]
yeah except when they add bonuses, WE'RE NOT EVEN IN THE TOURNEY :([/quote]
Well, we're in with the .003/.002/.001 bonus. If the bonus gets bumped up to .004/.0025/.001, then we're out.
[quote Will][quote KeithK][q]You need to get out more.[/q]Says the person with 1800 posts on this forum... :-P[/quote]
Hey, I never denied that I should get out more too. :-D[/quote]
Ha, amateurs ;)
Referring to the Albany and Worcester regionals as "East" and "Northeast" is sort of a misnomer, since Worcester is almost due east from Albany. (Albany is actually just a smidge further north, so if one of them should be "Northeast", Albany is it.) Is there some NCAA rule that regionals have to be referred to by compass directions? Couldn't they just call them the "Albany" and "Worcester" regionals?
[quote Pete Godenschwager]If the bonus gets bumped up to .004/.0025/.001, then we're out.[/quote]
"Just win the ECACs, baby."
Cornell is listed as "Looking good, but pay attention to details" in the latest article about the PWR.
The gist of the article is that Cornell is on an unstable base right now (nothing we didn't know). We are in the meat of the schedule now, with 6 straight TUC games, and the article is saying that with so few TUCs so far any one loss hurts our impressive percentage much more. At least these games will also act to raise the RPI some as well.
Cornell is really in an excellent position right now. By Monday night at 11PM it's not at all out of the question Cornell could have flipped as many as 8 comparisons and lost maybe only 1 it's now winning.
Cornell needs 3 points this weekend to make serious headway. They now have to start winning the TUC games consistently. If they can, they're in a great position to make up a ton of ground without needing the out-of-towns to break perfectly every night.
At least 3 points against 15-6 Colgate and here's what can happen:
- UNO or LSSU will flip, maybe both. They're playing each other and they're only the slightest bit ahead of Cornell in RPI right now.
- An OSU split, or worse, at MI flips the OSU comparison
- Ferris could barely hang on if they sweep WMU. If not, it will flip.
- SCSU is playing 6-19 AA. Even if they sweep a 3 pt Cornell weekend will flip this one
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
- MSU is playing 9-14 ND, even a seep might not do it for them
- It's a bit far fetched, but a CC sweep of visiting NoDak could flip that one as well. More reasonably, a split in that series would make the NoDak advantage infinitesimal.
It's in Cornell's control to get to 5 or 6 in the PWR and stay home for the regionals. A #1 seed is even theoretically possible at this point. Just win.
[quote Ken '70] Just win.[/quote]You said it!:-P
[quote Ken '70]
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
[/quote]
It's Beanpawt time, huh? :-D
And on a bright side, even if BU wins, it firms the comparison with over Harvard, which is *very* close right now.
[quote Ken '70]It's in Cornell's control to get to 5 or 6 in the PWR and stay home for the regionals. [/quote]
For a lot of reasons, even a 5 or 6 doesn't guarantee an eastern regional. Note that the committee's guidelines say the top four, in order, get sent to the closest regional. Wisconsin or Minneapolis at #1 are closest to Green Bay. If Miami were #2, Albany is the next closest for them and even Worcester is closer than Grand Forks. Of course, the committee will do whatever it wants anyway.
Speaking of ridiculously uncertain circumstances, with a .003/.002/.001 Cornell is currently (Thursday afternoon) in a 5-way tie for 10th (i.e., the difference between on the cusp of a 3-seed and being eliminated would resolve in tie-break procedures): http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php?roadbon=.003&neutbon=.002&homebon=.001&grid=
[quote Trotsky]Speaking of ridiculously uncertain circumstances, with a .003/.002/.001 Cornell is currently (Thursday afternoon) in a 5-way tie for 10th (i.e., the difference between on the cusp of a 3-seed and being eliminated would resolve in tie-break procedures): http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php?roadbon=.003&neutbon=.002&homebon=.001&grid=[/quote]Stupid Princeton.* :-(
* Yes, I am more upset with losing the game, but I still choose to blame Princeton.)
BTW, has anybody ever definitely determined that substituting, say, 2 losses to Miami for 2 wins against Niagara cannot, be definition, improve Cornell in the PWR?
[quote Trotsky]BTW, has anybody ever definitely determined that substituting, say, 2 losses to Miami for 2 wins against Niagara cannot, be definition, improve Cornell in the PWR?[/quote]Well, the common opponents, TUC and H2H categories are based purely on wins. So adding losses instead of wins can only hurt you there. The switch could only help in the RPI category and would if the SoS differential exceeded the Win% differential.
Of course there's a lot of hockey to be played. Miami, WI and MN all have weak schedules to finish the RS. WI is pretty far ahead, maybe Miami can get MN. Just have the feeling Miami is due to cool off a bit, maybe 4-2-1 to finish.
[quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02
[quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved.[/quote]
And, besides, this is the Beanpot. Horses for courses.
[quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?
[quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.
[quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]
Or genius
[quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]
Or genius[/quote]
This is what happens when people quote messages...
[quote Trotsky][quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]
Or genius[/quote]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.
[quote Al DeFlorio]
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/quote]
You mean something like this?
http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,79426,79498,sv=2#msg-79498 :-P
[quote Trotsky]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]
Yeah I admit that is a bit of an eye sore.
[quote Al DeFlorio][quote Trotsky][quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]
Or genius[/quote]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/quote]
I disagree.
[q]But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/q]May I suggest a manual quote or at least some editing for these cases?
[quote Trotsky]I disagree.[/quote]Which makes you both wrong and frequently inscrutable.
[quote Trotsky][quote Al DeFlorio][quote Trotsky][quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]
Or genius[/quote]
This is what happens when people quote messages...[/quote]
But it's still preferable to putting a message at the bottom of the thread that responds or refers to a message buried somewhere above in the middle of the thread, but doesn't quote it.[/quote]
I disagree.[/quote]
ooh lets make a huge one of these ;)
pending cc and und...und losing to CC will help cornell possibly flip the und comparison if not make it easier...
with 33/22/11 bonus
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 2 19-6-2 .7407 1 .6057
2 Minnesota 27 6 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5957
3 Miami 26 1 19-5-4 .7500 3 .5770
4 Colorado College 25 11 17-10-1 .6250 4 .5596
5 Boston University 24 10 15-8-2 .6400 5 .5506
6t Boston College 22 5 17-6-2 .7200 6 .5505
6t Nebraska-Omaha 22 25 15-11-3 .5690 7 .5473
8t Michigan State 20 23 15-10-7 .5781 9 .5448
8t Cornell 20 4 14-4-3 .7381 12 .5419
10 Michigan 19 18 15-10-3 .5893 8 .5454
11t Ohio State 16 27t 14-11-4 .5517 14 .5397
11t Harvard 16 17 12-8-2 .5909 18 .5318
13t Providence 15 20t 14-10-1 .5800 11 .5419
13t St. Cloud State 15 12t 15-9-3 .6111 17 .5325
15 Ferris State 14 27t 13-10-6 .5517 13 .5405
16 North Dakota 13 19 17-12-1 .5833 10 .5432
17t Lake Superior 11 12t 14-8-5 .6111 16 .5335
17t Denver 11 14 16-10-2 .6071 20 .5309
19 Maine 10 7t 18-9-0 .6667 19 .5312
20t Alaska-Fairbanks 9 35 11-12-4 .4815 21 .5276
20t St. Lawrence 9 20t 14-10-1 .5800 15 .5384
20t New Hampshire 9 26 13-10-4 .5556 22 .5213
23 Vermont 7 7t 17-8-2 .6667 24 .5211
24 Northern Michigan 6 27t 15-12-2 .5517 27 .5153
25 Colgate 4 9 15-7-5 .6481 23 .5213
26t Bowling Green 3 39 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5025
26t Dartmouth 3 30 11-10-1 .5227 25 .5187
28 Holy Cross 2 3 18-6-1 .7400 26 .5183
29 Clarkson 0 31t 12-12-2 .5000 29 .5012
well und wins and storms up the computer rankings...and cc gets caught at #4 and we are alone at #8. lets get another win tomorrow RED!
33/22/11
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 28 2 19-6-2 .7407 1 .6041
2 Minnesota 27 6 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5958
3 Miami 26 1 19-5-4 .7500 3 .5772
4t Colorado College 23 14 17-11-1 .6034 4 .5551
4t Boston College 23 5 17-6-2 .7200 5 .5505
4t Boston University 23 10 15-8-2 .6400 6 .5501
7 Nebraska-Omaha 21 25 15-11-3 .5690 8 .5472
8 Cornell 20 4 14-4-3 .7381 11 .5419
9 Michigan State 19 23 15-10-7 .5781 10 .5447
10 Michigan 18 19 15-10-3 .5893 9 .5450
11 North Dakota 17 16 18-12-1 .5968 7 .5482
12t Ohio State 16 27t 14-11-4 .5517 14 .5389
12t Harvard 16 18 12-8-2 .5909 18 .5325
14 Providence 15 20t 14-10-1 .5800 12 .5419
15t St. Cloud State 14 11t 15-9-3 .6111 17 .5328
15t Ferris State 14 27t 13-10-6 .5517 13 .5405
17 Denver 12 13 16-10-2 .6071 20 .5305
18 Lake Superior 11 11t 14-8-5 .6111 16 .5335
19t Maine 10 7t 18-9-0 .6667 19 .5308
19t New Hampshire 10 26 13-10-4 .5556 22 .5219
21t Alaska-Fairbanks 9 35 11-12-4 .4815 21 .5275
21t St. Lawrence 9 20t 14-10-1 .5800 15 .5383
23 Vermont 7 7t 17-8-2 .6667 24 .5211
24 Northern Michigan 6 27t 15-12-2 .5517 27 .5152
25 Colgate 4 9 15-7-5 .6481 23 .5213
26t Bowling Green 3 39 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5024
26t Dartmouth 3 30 11-10-1 .5227 25 .5187
28 Holy Cross 2 3 18-6-1 .7400 26 .5183
29 Clarkson 0 31t 12-12-2 .5000 29 .5012
Looks like we need to be Clarkson fans for a while, especially if (not a woof) we beat them again next weekend. We're not in danger of losing any comparisons right now if Clarkson drops out, but a better record vs TUC is always a good thing. Niagara is at .4888, but their remaining games include Air Force (5-15-1) twice, Wayne State (5-15-5) twice, and RMU (7-15-2) twice, so I don't see how they could possibly become a TUC, regardless of the outcomes of those games. Union may have a better shot at becoming a TUC - they're at .4882. However, their remaining schedule (with two notable exceptions) is a who's who of the dregs of the ECAC: Brown, Quinnipiac, Princeton, RPI, and Yale. If they find a way to meet Clarkson in the first round, they'd have the complete list of the bottom half in the standings.
So I think we're unlikely to pick up any TUC points by teams moving up - we just need to hope that Clarkson stays above .500.
[quote redhair34][quote Killer][quote ugarte][quote Killer][quote Ken '70]
...
- Harvard beats BU Monday night, the BU comp swings to us
...
[/quote]
Gotta go with BU in this one. They looked confused and lifeless for a good part of the game that they tied at Harvard last November, but what I've seen lately (quite a few of their games get televised in the Boston area) says they're vastly improved. I'm guessing that Harvard will come out fast, get an early goal or two, but then BU will take control and the final will be 4(or 5)-2. Just my $0.02[/quote]First Ari, now you. When did predicting game flow replace predicting the final score? Or just picking a winner?[/quote]
:-P Gives me more chances to look foolish when all is said and done.[/quote]
Or genius[/quote]In his NFL.com column this year, Gregg Easterbook (AKA Tuesday Morning Quarterback) took each game and matched the New York Times' predictions against his generic prediction of Home Team 20, Visiting Team 17. I think his generic prediction blew the NYT's predictions out of the water.
Which is to say, if you try to look like a genius and succeed, great, but more often you're going to look like you're just talking out your ass.
[quote Robb]Niagara is at .4888, but their remaining games include Air Force (5-15-1) twice, Wayne State (5-15-5) twice, and RMU (7-15-2) twice, so I don't see how they could possibly become a TUC, regardless of the outcomes of those games.[/quote]In other words, root for Niagara in the CHA tournament.
Looking at the comparisons we're losing (after all games on Feb 3):
UND: We're losing the comparison 2-1. We lose RPI .5482 to .5419. We're unlikely to take that back, though they do have 2 games remaining with UMD (8-17-4) and 2 with MTU (6-18-3), so there's a chance. We appear pretty secure on TUC: .7143 for us and .3947 for them, but our .7143 is based on a 5-2 record, so we'd have to drop 6 games to TUCs to be below them at 5-8 (.3846). Of course, their TUC record could improve, too, but if we drop 5 or 6 games to TUCs between now and selection, the UND comparison will be the least of our problems! To win this comparison, we have to get the common opponents back in our favor. Our common opponents are Harvard, UMD, Northeastern, and MSU. They're at 5-2 (.7143) and we're at 3-1-1 (.700). They have 2 remaining vs. UMD and we have 1 vs. Harvard, plus possible playoff matchups with those same teams. If UMD can take one game and we beat Harvard, they'd be at 6-3 (.6667) and we'd be at 4-1-1 (.7500), winning the comparison. OTOH, if UND sweeps UMD, they'll be up to .7778, so we'd need to beat Harvard again in the ECAC tournament to get up to 5-1-1 (.7857). Of course, UND could also meed UMD in the WCHA playoffs, so this one is going to be tight - go UMD!
MSU: lose the comparison 2-2 on RPI tiebreaker, .5447 to .5419. MSU's RPI is definitely going to go up with 2 games remaining vs. Miami (19-5-4) and 2 vs. LSSU (14-8-5), so we probably can't take RPI. For this comparison, our TUC is 4-1 (games vs. MSU don't count) to their 9-8-6, so we'd have to drop at least 4 TUC games to be below them - again, could happen, but it had better not. Interestingly, we have no common opponents, just head-to-head with each other of 1-1, which obviously won't change. I think MSU keeps the comparison, based on their RPI. I guess we can hope that they tank badly enough for their record to drop to cancel out their RPI SOS bump, but that seems unlikely, and would probably be bad for some other comparisons for us (common opponents, etc).
UNO: we lose the comparison 2-1. UNO has RPI at .5472 to .5419. Our upcomming opponents are remarkably similar: several games against teams just over .500 (LSSU, NMU, and UMich for them, Gate, Clarkson, SLU, Harvard, Dartmouth, Union for us), but they have two stinkers (WMUx2) and we only have one, RPI. This still seems like a tossup - we need to have a much better record in our last few games than UNO does. Unfortunately, they look like they're flying right now (beat LSSU, no slouch, 8-0 tonight!). Their TUC is closer at 12-8-2 (.5909) to our .7143. On the surface, that looks secure, but remember that our TUC record is only 5-2. Two losses to TUCs would put us at 5-4 (.5556). Still, we should manage to keep TUC. They have common opponents right now at 4-1 (.8000) to 2-1-1 (.6250). The common opponents are MSU and Yale. Even if we beat Yale 3 more times (1 RS and 2 playoffs), that only gets us up to 5-1-1 (.7857). Therefore, we need help from MSU - they need to beat UNO in the playoffs for us to win common opponents. RPI could still flip, too, so this one is probably still a tossup.
BU: lose the comparison 1-1 on RPI of .5501 to .5419. BU still has Northeastern (2x, maybe 3 in the 'pot) and UMass on the schedule, but also Harvard, UNHx2, Vermontx2, and possibly BC in the 'pot. Their RPI will probably rise, so I don't think we'll catch them. Their record vs TUC is 8-5-2 (.6000), so it's pretty much the same story as UNO - as long as we don't tank horribly against our remaining TUCs, we'll probably keep this point. Right now, common opponents is tied at 2-1-1. The common opponents are Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth, and Northeastern. We each have 3 more games currently scheduled (Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth for us and Harvard and Northeasternx2 for them, plus could see Northeastern again in the 'pot, too.) vs. common opponents. Northeastern (1-18-6) is as close to a sure thing as you can get and the Harvard game is in the BU invitational, so I'm guessing that BU will do better in their games (3-0, perhaps 4-0) than we will do vs.Harvard, RPI, and Dartmouth - we'll probably drop a point somewhere in there, and that will give the point to BU. On the other hand, chances are that we'll see at least one of our common opponents in the ECAC playoffs, so even if we both sweep the remaining 3 games and both end up at 5-1-1, we'll have more of a chance to improve in the playoffs than BU will, so we could still take the point. Either way, go Harvard and go Northeastern.
CC: we lose 2-1. CC has RPI by .0132, so we probably won't get that. We have TUC pretty secure (they're only at .4412), so we have to flip common opponents: Union, UMD, and MSU. They're at 3-1 with 2 games remaining vs UMD. We only have Union once, and we're at 1-2-1. Even if UMD sweeps (yeah, right) and we beat Union, the best we do is tie at .500, so CC keeps the comparison 1-1 on RPI tiebreaker, unless we get another win vs. Union in the playoffs and CC doesn't beat UMD in the WCHA playoffs. Either way, go UMD.
Miami: we lose 1-1 on RPI, where they are crushing us, .5772 to .5419. Not gonna happen. We have TUC at .7143, but they are right behind at 13-5-2 (.7000). If we do worse than .700 in our remaining TUC games (Gate, Clarkson (for now), SLU, Dartmouth, and Harvard), this will flip back to Miami, so we need 7 points (3-1-1) in those games just to stay even. If Miami goes better than .700 in THEIR remaining TUC games (all 6 of their remaining games are TUCs), then we'd need to do even better to keep this point. Go Miami's opponents and go us. Common opponents (Clarkson, SLU, RPI, MSU) are even at 2-0-1, we need to do better in our 3 remaining games (Clarkson, SLU, and RPI) than they do in theirs (MSUx2). From above, I don't think we'll retake the MSU comparison anyway, so go MSU, which will help us keep TUC and win common opponents vs. Miami.
UMinn: we lose 2-1. Their RPI is untouchable at .5958. Their TUC is .6389, so we'll again need to be in the range of 3-1-1 or better vs. our remaining TUCs to keep this point. They have common opponents (UMD, MSU, Union, Niagara) 3-1-2 to 3-2-1. They have Duluth twice more and we have Union, so if we beat Union, that'll get us to 4-2-1 (.6429). so we'd need UMD to at least split to take UMinn down to 4-2-2 (.6250) to take the point. If UMinn sweeps UMD to get to 5-1-2 (.7500), we can't catch them even if we beat Union 3 times to get to 6-2-1 (.7222), so we'd need UMD to beat UMinn in their playoffs. Whatever - go UMD. That's our only hope for flipping this comparison.
Wisconsin: we lose 2-1. Again, an unassailable RPI of .6041, and a pretty similar story on TUCs: they're at .6842, so we need to go about 3-1-1 vs our remaining TUCs to keep this point. If we can do this, this again comes down to common opponents: SLU, MSU, UMD. They're 3-1, we're 2-1-1. They have one game remaining vs. UMD and we have one with SLU. Obviously, we need to win and they need to lose. If Wisconsin beats UMD tomorrow night, they'll be at 4-1 (.8000) so we wouldn't be able to catch them even with 3 wins vs. SLU (5-1-1 = .7857). We'd need to get 3 wins vs SLU and have UMD beat Wisconsin in the WCHAs.
So, to summarize my thoughts: The only comparison that seems mathematically out of reach is the MSU one - oh, to have that weekend in Nov to do over! Our fate is almost entirely in UMD's hands - if they were to go on a tear right now and win out, we'd probably pick up comparisons vs Wisconsin, UMinn, and UND. It looks like extra wins in the ECAC playoffs over Union, SLU, Clarkson, RPI, Harvard, or Yale have the potential to help us win some of these comparisons, so we want to stay away from Colgate, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac, Brown, and Princeton.
Teams to cheer for: UMD in a big way, MSU, Harvard and Northeastern (vs. BU)
Teams to cheer against: all of the teams we're losing to except MSU.
I think that's it. Time for -> ::snore::
[quote jmh30]In his NFL.com column this year, Gregg Easterbook (AKA Tuesday Morning Quarterback) took each game and matched the New York Times' predictions against his generic prediction of Home Team 20, Visiting Team 17. I think his generic prediction blew the NYT's predictions out of the water.
Which is to say, if you try to look like a genius and succeed, great, but more often you're going to look like you're just talking out your ass.[/quote]
Maybe it's like index funds vs. managed.;-)
strong work. i am way too lazy to DO that :)LGR! (and too tired to type)
let us start it off with a nice tv win tonight! (no woofing)
Wall Street Journal has measured stock pickers against a dartboard. They might have used a chimp, but it would have been insulting to one side.
[quote Robb]Looking at the comparisons we're losing (after all games on Feb 3):
UND: We're losing the comparison 2-1. We lose RPI .5482 to .5419. We're unlikely to take that back, though they do have 2 games remaining with UMD (8-17-4) and 2 with MTU (6-18-3),
MSU: lose the comparison 2-2 on RPI tiebreaker, .5447 to .5419. MSU's RPI is definitely going to go up with 2 games remaining vs. Miami (19-5-4) and 2 vs. LSSU (14-8-5), so we probably can't take RPI.
UNO: we lose the comparison 2-1. UNO has RPI at .5472 to .5419. RPI could still flip, too, so this one is probably still a tossup.
BU: lose the comparison 1-1 on RPI of .5501 to .5419. Right now, common opponents is tied at 2-1-1.
Teams to cheer for: UMD in a big way, MSU, Harvard and Northeastern (vs. BU)
Teams to cheer against: all of the teams we're losing to except MSU.
[/quote]
Nice job.
I disagree with your asumptions about RPI vs. a number of teams. Before yesterday's games Cornell's RPI was .5323, after beating Colgate it was .5419, an increase of .0096 in one game (using .33/.22/.11 bonus). NoDak, BU, MSU and UNO are all within that range - or just one win away from being caught, or nearly so. BU isn't playing tonight, so we could be ahead or close to it by the time they take the ice against Harvard on Monday (a win or tie by HA would have us winning all 3 criteria in the BU comparison).
We do need some help in the out-of-towns tonight, particularly CC beating NoDak. Also LSSU def. UNO, and ND at least tieing MSU. If all that happened, everything else being equal (which you can never count on), we'd be a #1 seed tomorrow morning with 24 comparisons.
Even when things don't shake out perfectly tonight, these 4 comparisons are all very flip-able. It's all about RPI (and COP in BU's case), and the RPIs are really very close.
If we keep playing well PWR 4 or 5 is do-able, and there is no practical difference between the two at this point.
You're probably right. I know I've been surprised in the past just how much movement there can be in RPI even at this point in the season. When you say "no practical difference between the two at this point," you just mean that it's impossible to say whether good results would get us to 4 or 5, right? Because there's a HUGE difference in being the #4 and #5 team - just look at us last year, having to go to Minny as the #5. If you're the #4 seed, you get to go to a regional close to home, and there's a decent chance you'd be facing the AHA or CHA autobid in the first round. A #5 seed can get sent to Siberia or Timbuktu and has a chance of playing the #9 team in the country - huge difference there.
[quote Robb]You're probably right. I know I've been surprised in the past just how much movement there can be in RPI even at this point in the season. When you say "no practical difference between the two at this point," you just mean that it's impossible to say whether good results would get us to 4 or 5, right? Because there's a HUGE difference in being the #4 and #5 team - just look at us last year, having to go to Minny as the #5. If you're the #4 seed, you get to go to a regional close to home, and there's a decent chance you'd be facing the AHA or CHA autobid in the first round. A #5 seed can get sent to Siberia or Timbuktu and has a chance of playing the #9 team in the country - huge difference there.[/quote]
This isn't last year, and won't be. PWR 4 is going to be playing in the east, whether it's Miami, Cornell, BC, or CC. Therefore 5 is going to be playing in the east. With MN and WI pretty much set for 1 and 2, baring meltdown, even a 6 seed gets eastern ice. 3 through 6 playing east is a pretty wide landing area, let's just keep winning and we'll be in there.
[quote Ken '70]
This isn't last year, and won't be. PWR 4 is going to be playing in the east, whether it's Miami, Cornell, BC, or CC. Therefore 5 is going to be playing in the east. With MN and WI pretty much set for 1 and 2, baring meltdown, even a 6 seed gets eastern ice. 3 through 6 playing east is a pretty wide landing area, let's just keep winning and we'll be in there.[/quote]
Yeah, but they don't put as much emphasis on keeping the 1-16, 2-15 matchups as they do other things - intraconference matchups, banding, etc, so you're still somewhat rolling the dice as a 5 seed, where a 4 seed is a sure thing.
How did you arrive at the conclusion that a 6 seed gets eastern ice? Are you assuming that 2 of the 5-8 band will be from the WCHA, so they'd keep us east to avoid a potential second round intraconference matchup?
[quote Robb][quote Ken '70]
This isn't last year, and won't be. PWR 4 is going to be playing in the east, whether it's Miami, Cornell, BC, or CC. Therefore 5 is going to be playing in the east. With MN and WI pretty much set for 1 and 2, baring meltdown, even a 6 seed gets eastern ice. 3 through 6 playing east is a pretty wide landing area, let's just keep winning and we'll be in there.[/quote]
Yeah, but they don't put as much emphasis on keeping the 1-16, 2-15 matchups as they do other things - intraconference matchups, banding, etc, so you're still somewhat rolling the dice as a 5 seed, where a 4 seed is a sure thing.
How did you arrive at the conclusion that a 6 seed gets eastern ice? Are you assuming that 2 of the 5-8 band will be from the WCHA, so they'd keep us east to avoid a potential second round intraconference matchup?[/quote]
These days they don't worry about intraconference matchups in the second round, only the first. They do seem to have concentrated more on the 1-16 seeding in recent years, but it's not codified, and changes in committee personnel could change the way the whim of the committee plays out. And you never know when they'll pull something like "we let them decide it on the ice" out of their keysters.
btw, i was looking on uscho. who are the hosts of the sites this year?
[quote Robb] Yeah, but they don't put as much emphasis on keeping the 1-16, 2-15 matchups as they do other things - intraconference matchups, banding, etc, so you're still somewhat rolling the dice as a 5 seed, where a 4 seed is a sure thing.
How did you arrive at the conclusion that a 6 seed gets eastern ice? Are you assuming that 2 of the 5-8 band will be from the WCHA, so they'd keep us east to avoid a potential second round intraconference matchup?[/quote]
1-16, etc is the default setup. They vary it if first round interfconference matchups occur or to put a host school where it has to be. They really don't exercise much discretion outside of these bounds.
PWR 1 & 2 get to play as close to home as possible. The top 4 are now all closer to Grand Forks and Green Bay than Albany or Worcester. The top 2 therefore go west, 3 and 4 go east. Since 3 plays 6 and 4 plays 5, all of those will be in either Albany or Worcester.
The only team close to upsetting this is BC, and they have too much wood to chop to get to PWR 1 or 2.
[quote jy3]btw, i was looking on uscho. who are the hosts of the sites this year?[/quote]
East (Albany, NY): RPI and the ECAC
Northeast (Worcester, MA): Boston University
Midwest (Green Bay, WI) Michigan Tech
West (Grand Forks, ND) :University of North Dakota
http://www.ncaa.org/releases/champsites/2003062701cs.htm
[quote nyc94][quote jy3]btw, i was looking on uscho. who are the hosts of the sites this year?[/quote]
East (Albany, NY): RPI and the ECAC
Northeast (Worcester, MA): Boston University
Midwest (Green Bay, WI) Michigan Tech
West (Grand Forks, ND) :University of North Dakota
http://www.ncaa.org/releases/champsites/2003062701cs.htm[/quote]
Doesn't bode well for Michigan. They've made the Frozen Four six times in the past ten years: three-for-three from regionals in Yost; one-for-one from a regional in E. Lansing (one hour from Ann Arbor); and two-for-three from regionals in Grand Rapids (two hours from Ann Arbor). In three regionals not held in Michigan, they've been bounced every time.
Just at a quick glance, I think we have the best TUC record in the PWR ranking. All we got to do is keep on winning and the RPI should slowly improve. Also if you add the game versus RIT, we are tied for the best record in the nation.
[quote TCHL8842]Just at a quick glance, I think we have the best TUC record in the PWR ranking. All we got to do is keep on winning and the RPI should slowly improve. Also if you add the game versus RIT, we are tied for the best record in the nation.[/quote]
that seems true. only in the minne wisc table do they have a better tuc record b/c the games against minne are gone. at least in my quick glance.
Wisconsin vs Cornell
.5964 1 RPI 0 .5408
12-5-2 .6842 0 TUC 1 .7143 5-2-0
3-1-0 .7500 1 COp 0 .6250 2-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 1
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwr.php
Don't look now but Cornell is at number 4 in the pairwise rankings!
I know a lot could change, especially as the games out west come in.....But this is awesome to see.
So Cornell is a 1 seed as of right now. RPI took a huge leap tonight to .5512 after bonuses. However, this is before the WCHA scores are in. Just keep winning.
Yeah, it seems like they leap around 10pm and then slide by 1am.
6 wins from the RS title.
10 wins from the ECAC title.
14 wins... ;-)
Well, well. Way to go UMD Bulldogs.
That drops Wisco's common opponents record to 3-2 (.600) and we're at 2-1-1, so we should take this comparison for now. We must beat SLU to keep it.
Edit: and Ken '70 was very right about RPI. We went from .5416 to .5512 in one game by beating a strong team. We won't get that much of a boost from our remaining games, and MSU will get more of a boost from some of their games, but this is not as cut and dried as I thought. Back in November, after that 1-point weekend vs. RPI/Union, I never would have dreamed that this team would even be in the running for a #1 seed. Wow.
looking at the PWR rankings as of 10:48, the only 3 teams that we are losing comparisons to are Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Miami. From what the Robb just said, it seems like we should be able to flip the Wisconsin comparison once the PWR get updated. And Cornell can easily flip the Miami comparison later in the season, as CU and Miami are tied in record against common opponents, but CU has 3 games left against teams that Miami has faced. Still left on the schedule: RPI, Clarkson, St. Lawrence.
With the update at 10:57 EDT, Cornell is now 5th in RPI:
1 Minny
2 Wisco
3 Miami
4 CC
5 Cornell
Honestly, I never would have thought Cornell could climb to the best RPI among all Eastern teams. That's astonishing.
[quote Trotsky]With the update at 10:57 EDT, Cornell is now 5th in RPI:
1 Minny
2 Wisco
3 Miami
4 CC
5 Cornell
Honestly, I never would have thought Cornell could climb to the best RPI among all Eastern teams. That's astonishing.[/quote]
With either .0033/.0022/.0011 or .003/.002/.001, we're #4 but lose the CC comparison, in addition to Minny and Miami
Yep, the short version of the individual comparisons is:
Losses:
Wisco: Cornell
Minny: Wisco
Miami: Wisco, Minny
Cornell: Minny, Miami, CC
Miami is definitely in reach, and we're just .001 behind CC in the decisive RPI.
cc is up 3-2 with 8 left...
[quote jy3]cc is up 3-2 with 8 left...[/quote]
... and it has been a great game to listen to, after returning from seeing Cornell on tv (Center City Phila., thank you Hillel :-) )
But I was surprised to hear that CC has scored few goals of late.
Atr this rate, I'd love for CC to play Cornell in an NCAA round.
As of 11:30, with a 3,2,1 Cornell is tied with Miami at #3. Based on the comparison Miami gets 3 and we get 4, but I'll take that :-P
Or as I said when I first ran the results...holy shit, we're a 1 seed! ::banana::
CC defeats North Dakota 3-2
First time in 2006 they scored 3 goals, their anouncers say.
yep here is the updated set of rankings with 33/22/11
as a 4 seed we would likely be in mass
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 26 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5924
1t Minnesota 26 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5920
3 Miami 25 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5755
4 Cornell 24 2t 15-4-3 .7500 5 .5524
5 Colorado College 23 12 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5561
6 Boston College 22 4 17-6-2 .7200 6 .5517
7t Boston University 20 9 15-8-2 .6400 8 .5486
7t Michigan 20 16 16-10-3 .6034 7 .5495
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 24t 15-11-4 .5667 9 .5476
10t Michigan State 17 18t 16-10-7 .5909 10 .5461
10t Harvard 17 18t 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5331
12t Ohio State 15 29 14-12-4 .5333 14 .5354
12t Providence 15 22 14-10-2 .5769 13 .5404
14 St. Cloud State 14 10t 16-9-3 .6250 16 .5327
15 Ferris State 13 24t 14-10-6 .5667 12 .5407
16 North Dakota 11 21 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5453
17t New Hampshire 10 23 14-10-4 .5714 22 .5244
17t Lake Superior 10 14t 14-8-6 .6071 17 .5322
17t Denver 10 14t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5294
20 St. Lawrence 8 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5303
21 Maine 7 8 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5265
22t Northern Michigan 6 24t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5176
22t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5285
24 Vermont 5 7 17-8-3 .6607 23 .5241
25 Bowling Green 4 38t 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5001
26 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 24 .5209
27 Colgate 2 10t 15-8-5 .6250 25 .5205
28 Dartmouth 0 30 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5132
[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]As of 11:30, with a 3,2,1 Cornell is tied with Miami at #3. Based on the comparison Miami gets 3 and we get 4, but I'll take that :-P
[/quote]
CC's win is now incorporated into the PWR, so Cornell's brief hold on the CC comparison is flipped back over to the Tigers leaving Cornell alone in the 4 spot.
CC's RPI went from .5517 to .5561 with the win using the 33/22/11 model. Cornell ends the night at .5524.
[quote Chris '03][quote Jeff Hopkins '82]As of 11:30, with a 3,2,1 Cornell is tied with Miami at #3. Based on the comparison Miami gets 3 and we get 4, but I'll take that :-P
[/quote]
Cornell ends the night at .5524.[/quote]
An hour later, make that .5514, tied for third with Miami, bonus or no bonus.
Gotta love the stabilty of the system that moves us from out of the tourney to a #1 seed in one weekend.:-D
Almost as important, given the instability of the PWR at times, our RPI is 5th. Yes, it comes down to PWR in the end, but its ALOT easier to do well in the PWR when your PWR is helping you, not hurting you.
In the rating that makes sense but doesn't matter, we're up to #7.
http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/krach.shtml
Look at the top three. It's very tight at the top of the KRACH. ::twitch::
well lets hope sucks wins tomorrow. that will help them and the ecac. it could help them flip the comparison with us later...but Cornell will prevent that from happening with a win at lynah I hope. Of note, they win the tuc comparison which i thought was interesting.
[quote jy3]yep here is the updated set of rankings with 33/22/11
as a 4 seed we would likely be in mass
[/quote]
First of all, thanks to all of you who really understand this stuff, and post the details for those of us who are interested. I'm especially aprreciative of the detailed posts by Ken, and the one in the past couple of days by Robb. Thanks guys.
But now on to my immediate question...
As the number four overall seed, why would we be in Worcester instead of Albany? I thought there was some "rule" about placing the number one seeds as close to home as possible. And while Albany may be mariginally closer than Massachusetts for whatever other school is being sent east (I haven't checked a map, and am somehwat geographically challeneged) Albany is significantly closer to Ithaca than Worcester is. So why wouldn't we wind up in Albany? What am I missing?
Andy W.
Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?
The current USCHO projection has us in Albany. (#1 Wisconsin to Green Bay, #2 Minnesota to Grand Forks, ND, #3 Miami to Worcester) My guess is USCHO is assuming the Committee won't distinguish between Albany and Worcester for any team that would likely have to fly to their regional.
In the immortal words of Al Davis, "Just win, baby." Keep winning and things will take care of themselves.
[quote andyw2100]As the number four overall seed, why would we be in Worcester instead of Albany? I thought there was some "rule" about placing the number one seeds as close to home as possible. And while Albany may be mariginally closer than Massachusetts for whatever other school is being sent east (I haven't checked a map, and am somehwat geographically challeneged) Albany is significantly closer to Ithaca than Worcester is. So why wouldn't we wind up in Albany? What am I missing?[/quote]
[quote redGrinch]Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?[/quote]
[quote nyc94]The current USCHO projection has us in Albany. (#1 Wisconsin to Green Bay, #2 Minnesota to Grand Forks, ND, #3 Miami to Worcester) My guess is USCHO is assuming the Committee won't distinguish between Albany and Worcester for any team that would likely have to fly to their regional.[/quote]
You all make basically the same point, and the answer is, there's no way to know for sure what the committee will do. As nyc94 said, USCHO is guessing that they won't distinquish the difference. But they could elect to follow the rules exactly and send us to Worcester (being 2 towns over from Worcester, I wouldn't mind ;) ).
As for the Albany/RPI/ECAC connection, it doesn't force the committee to do anything - and is officially just a monetary connection for the league - but when you combine that with the point above, if the season were to end today, I wouldn't be surprised if they did put us in Albany. But again, who knows.
That being said, chances are it won't shake out just like this, so we may never know. The committee has no leeway in who makes it (unless you're a conspiracy theorist on the bonus points thing), but they do have a little bit of interpretation involved in some of the placing rules.
[quote redGrinch]Well, on a similar note.... does anyone know the effect of having the ECAC host Albany with respect to ECAC teams going there? Put another way, BU has to go to Worcester; UND would go to Grand Forks. We if RPI were going, they'd be tied to Albany. But what effect, if any does having the ECAC be a host have on teams placed there..... or is it strictly a money thing for the conference?[/quote]
Do we have enough data to know whether the committee would try to keep BU's bracket (1-16, 2-15, wise) together in Worcester, and that could be the deciding factor in which #1 seed gets sent to Worcester?
I always thought that they set location of #1 seeds before others so this shouldn't happen... of course that means it will.
[quote nr53]I always thought that they set location of #1 seeds before others so this shouldn't happen... of course that means it will.[/quote]
They do. Step #1 is to seat the #1 seeds in geographic order.
Doesn't mean they couldn't do somethingelse, but thems the rules.
A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO: What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?
So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany. Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup. So what do they do? The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup. Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job. The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.
The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.
Yikes. I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND. Not that that's a stretch...
That would be screw jobs in consecutive seasons. I don't think they'd do that. At least, not if they had any excuse not to.
Good lord, was that a quadruple negative..?
I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.
[quote Robb]A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO: What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?
So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany. Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup. So what do they do? The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup. Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job. The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.
The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.
Yikes. I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND. Not that that's a stretch...[/quote]
[quote Robb]The only comparison that seems mathematically out of reach is the MSU one - oh, to have that weekend in Nov to do over![/quote]
October, believe it or not. :-)
Beeeej
[quote Jordan 04]I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.[/quote]
I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect. ::worry::
So who wants to give us the short answer on how the 3 possible outcomes for each of tonight's Beanpot games would impact our PWR. I assume we are rooting for NU and Harvard in these early round games, but what do I know.
quick and simple and hopefully near target
bc/ne - a win by northeastern would help separate bc from us by dropping their winning % and also by dropping their RPI of course. It would also help us in common opponent as we beat NE and bc would then have lost to them. I am not sure how this would change any of BCs comparisons with other teams or ours with other teams...
sucks/bu - this is a bit more complicated. A loss by BU and a win by sucks helps us for common opponent and raises the oppopp win % and opp win % for the ECAC overall. My main concern is how this will harm us in our comparison with sucks down the road.
any other takers on this?
EDIT:
also...a bc win could lift their rpi above ours and give them the COp thereby flipping the comparison
also...a bu win could lift their rpi above ours (seems unlikely) and give them the COp comparison -> flipping it as well.
here are the current comparisons with 33/22/11
Cornell vs Boston College
.5538 1 RPI 0 .5518
5-2-0 .7143 1 TUC 0 .5769 7-5-1
3-1-0 .7500 1 COp 0 .7000 3-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
3 TOT 0
cornell vs bu
5538 1 RPI 0 .5486
5-2-0 .7143 1 TUC 0 .6000 8-5-2
2-1-1 .6250 0 COp 0 .6250 2-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 0
Cornell vs Harvard
.5538 1 RPI 0 .5345
4-2-0 .6667 0 TUC 1 .7222 6-2-1
10-3-2 .7333 1 COp 0 .5938 9-6-1
1-0-0 1 H2H 0 0-1-0
3 TOT 1
[quote Cornell95]So who wants to give us the short answer on how the 3 possible outcomes for each of tonight's Beanpot games would impact our PWR. I assume we are rooting for NU and Harvard in these early round games, but what do I know.[/quote]
The short answer: yup :)
If someone else feels like working out all the details, feel free
Short answer - RPI is bases 50% on average winning percentage of opponents. Since we played Northeastern once and have two games vs. Harvard, their wins help our RPI and their loses hurt it. We may end up in some tight RPI battles, which is a key criteria in PWR, as it is also used as a tiebreaker. Only downside is the risk of losing the comparison to Harvard - but I'll be rooting for NE and H tonight.
[quote Section A Banshee][quote Jordan 04]I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.[/quote]
I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect. ::worry::[/quote]
With the caveat that I've only played about half of the pep band's songs, and that I last played them 5+(?) years ago, and assuming I'm not in class at the time, I'd bring my flute to Grand Forks if you'd bring a flip folder of music :)
[quote Liz '05][quote Section A Banshee][quote Jordan 04]I don't see what's so scary. We'd go to North Dakota and try to win 2 games to get to the Frozen Four, just as any team would.[/quote]
I'd have to say that getting a band to Grand Forks is a pretty scary prospect. ::worry::[/quote]
With the caveat that I've only played about half of the pep band's songs, and that I last played them 5+(?) years ago, and assuming I'm not in class at the time, I'd bring my flute to Grand Forks if you'd bring a flip folder of music :)[/quote]And that's not a scary prospect?:-D
I dont know if this has been mentioned, but we are currently tied 1-1 with Miami, them winning RPI, us winning TUC, and COp being a tie (them winning the tie on RPI). We next play SLU/Tech who they were 1-0-1 against, so a sweep is crucial to win that comparision; additionally, they play 2 against MSU the week after, so MSU taking at least 3 is crucial there. If we were to flip that, we'd would be tied with Wisconsion for 1st with 25, our only losing comparision being against Minnesota, who plays two against Denver soon, so we should root for Denver there.
And so forth.
[quote French Rage]And so forth.[/quote]
Po tee weet.
Are either/both of the following true?:
If Cornell wins their final 6 RS games and sweeps through the 4 game ECAC playoffs, they:
1) are guaranteed a 1-seed?
2) are guaranteed to stay East?
I don't think it guarantees a #1 seed. I can imagine how we could lose both the BC and Wisc comparisons even with 10 more wins. Wisconsin just has to swap either the TUC criteria (5-2-0 vs. 12-5-2) or the COp criteria (2-1-1 vs. 3-2) and maintain an RPI lead to do win that comparison. Either seems possible with the right combination of games. BC needs to flip two of the three comparisons. But RPI is very close (.5527 vs. .5518) and could easily switch due to SoS, while COp is also close (3-1 vs. 3-1-1). Needless to say Miami and Minny would also have to hold their advantages over us.
So I do not think running the table would guarantee us a #1 seed. That said, I think a #1 seed would be extremely unlikely because at least one of the nearby teams is likely to slip up just enough to keep/put us ahead.
As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.
[quote KeithK]As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.[/quote]
That's not true... while we're talking dream land of sweeping the rest of the season ;) (not that it couldn't happen, just that it'd be an awfully nice dream), a #1 seed would pretty much guarantee us eastern ice unless we get beaten out for that by two other eastern teams. Not impossible, but not too too likely. I guess RPI making a #1 seed could throw a wrench in the works, but, um... yeah.
[quote DeltaOne81][quote KeithK]As for staying east, I don't think there are ever any guarantees.[/quote]
That's not true... while we're talking dream land of sweeping the rest of the season ;) (not that it couldn't happen, just that it'd be an awfully nice dream), a #1 seed would pretty much guarantee us eastern ice unless we get beaten out for that by two other eastern teams. Not impossible, but not too too likely. I guess RPI making a #1 seed could throw a wrench in the works, but, um... yeah.[/quote]Agreed, a #1 seed would guarantee that we would stay east unless two other eastern teams (BU, BC probably) passed us. But I just finished saying that I don't think a clean sweep guarantees us a #1 seed. So a sweep also won't guarantee that we stay east.
[quote Trotsky][quote French Rage]And so forth.[/quote]
Po tee weet.
Are either/both of the following true?:
If Cornell wins their final 6 RS games and sweeps through the 4 game ECAC playoffs, they:
1) are guaranteed a 1-seed?
2) are guaranteed to stay East?[/quote]
Po tee weet??
[quote Robb]A scary possibility was mentioned over on USCHO: What if UND makes the tournament as the #13 overall seed and we're the #4 overall seed?
So they place Minnesota in Grand Forks, Wisconsin in Green Bay, Miami in Worcester, and Cornell in Albany. Next thing they do is put UND in Grand Forks, creating an intra-conference matchup. So what do they do? The serpentine bracket would call for the #4 seed to face #13, and #13 has to be at home, so swapping us to UND would help maintain "competitive equity" (or was it "bracket integrity" - I never remember which is which) AND avoid a first-round intraconference matchup. Also, we're the lowest #1 seed, so of any of the 4 #1 seeds, we'd be the one most deserving of a screw job. The only argument I could see for sending Miami there instead of us is that Miami has to fly anyway, while Cornell is quite close to Albany.
The arguments against doing it are that it would screw 2 #1 seeds (think Minnesota wants to play in Albany?), and if UND gets in, they're probably the 5th WCHA team, in which case the committee has said that they'll allow some leeway in avoiding intraconference matchups.
Yikes. I think in addition to being big UMD fans, we need to start rooting really hard against UND. Not that that's a stretch...[/quote]
possible but I would think unlikely - more likely, they'd let UND play the 5 seed, make them play in Grand Forks, and then if they win, play Minnesota; the committee historically has seemed more willing to screw over 2 seeds (like us last year!)
more reason for us to win out, and not get put in the 2 seed position where they can mess with us (unless as been mentioned before, somehow 3 eastern teams are in tHE PWR top 4).
[quote KeithK]Agreed, a #1 seed would guarantee that we would stay east unless two other eastern teams (BU, BC probably) passed us. [/quote]
Even a #1 isn't a guarantee. Some things that could screw that up:
1) Miami is closer to Albany and Worcester than it is to Grand Forks.
2) What would the committe do if No. Dakota ends up a possible team in our natural bracket, e.g. 5, 12 or 13 if we're #4.
3) The committee can do anything it wants. Last year we were 5 and BU was 12. They could've just switched 5-12 for 6-11 and kept us east, but probably didn't want to do that since 6 was Michigan who they wanted in Grand Rapids. We ended up with a 5-10 match-up and a rationalization that it was about keeping 4 with 5. It's really not worth speculating until we see the final PWR and even then, there can be surprises.
33/22/11 after the first beanpot game
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 26 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5925
1t Minnesota 26 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5921
3 Miami 25 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5755
4 Cornell 24 2t 15-4-3 .7500 5 .5537
5 Colorado College 23 12 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5562
6t Boston University 21 9 15-8-2 .6400 7 .5488
6t Michigan 21 16 16-10-3 .6034 6 .5496
8 Boston College 20 4 18-6-2 .7308 8 .5487
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 24t 15-11-4 .5667 9 .5480
10t Michigan State 17 18t 16-10-7 .5909 10 .5462
10t Harvard 17 18t 12-8-2 .5909 15 .5346
12t Ohio State 15 29 14-12-4 .5333 14 .5354
12t Providence 15 22 14-10-2 .5769 13 .5407
14 St. Cloud State 14 10t 16-9-3 .6250 16 .5328
15 Ferris State 13 24t 14-10-6 .5667 12 .5408
16 North Dakota 11 21 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5453
17t New Hampshire 10 23 14-10-4 .5714 22 .5248
17t Lake Superior 10 14t 14-8-6 .6071 17 .5323
17t Denver 10 14t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5294
20 St. Lawrence 8 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5310
21 Maine 7 8 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5263
22t Northern Michigan 6 24t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5176
22t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5285
24 Vermont 5 7 17-8-3 .6607 23 .5244
25 Bowling Green 4 38t 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5001
26 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 25 .5197
27 Colgate 2 10t 15-8-5 .6250 24 .5216
28 Dartmouth 0 30 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5145
as predicted... the red fall
33/22/11
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 26 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5925
1t Minnesota 26 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5920
3 Miami 25 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5755
4t Colorado College 23 12 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5564
4t Boston University 23 8 16-8-2 .6538 5 .5540
4t Cornell 23 2t 15-4-3 .7500 6 .5529
7 Michigan 21 16 16-10-3 .6034 7 .5495
8 Boston College 20 4 18-6-2 .7308 8 .5494
9 Nebraska-Omaha 19 23t 15-11-4 .5667 9 .5479
10 Michigan State 17 18t 16-10-7 .5909 10 .5461
11 Harvard 16 26 12-9-2 .5652 17 .5311
12t Ohio State 15 29 14-12-4 .5333 14 .5354
12t Providence 15 21 14-10-2 .5769 12 .5416
14 St. Cloud State 14 10t 16-9-3 .6250 15 .5327
15 Ferris State 13 23t 14-10-6 .5667 13 .5408
16 North Dakota 11 20 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5445
17t Lake Superior 10 14t 14-8-6 .6071 16 .5323
17t Denver 10 14t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5297
19 New Hampshire 9 22 14-10-4 .5714 23 .5247
20 St. Lawrence 8 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5303
21 Maine 7 9 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5275
22t Vermont 6 7 17-8-3 .6607 22 .5248
22t Northern Michigan 6 23t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5176
22t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5285
25 Bowling Green 4 38t 12-16-1 .4310 28 .5001
26 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 25 .5196
27 Colgate 2 10t 15-8-5 .6250 24 .5209
28 Dartmouth 0 30 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5134
here is the comparison that changed for cornell:
Boston University vs Cornell
.5540 1 RPI 0 .5529
9-5-2 .6250 0 TUC 1 .7143 5-2-0
3-1-1 .7000 1 COp 0 .6250 2-1-1
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 1
So if we beat Harvard will that boost our RPI enough to flip the comparison back to us?
[quote ugarte]So if we beat Harvard will that boost our RPI enough to flip the comparison back to us?[/quote]
It would at least make our cop a tie which makes it 1-1 so they still win on RPI if theirs is higher.
I really, really need a life:
There are 203 regular season games left. That doesn't sound so bad. But each game can have 3 outcomes, win, loss, or draw. Thats 3^203 possibilities, which, if you can trust Excel to handle such large figures, comes out to 7.2x10^96. Throw on top of that that the conference playoffs involve 23 2-of-3 series (4 possibilities each: 2-0, 2-1, 1-2, and 0-2) and 28 single elimination games (only 2 possibilities: W or L), and you're up to 1.4x10^119 remaining possibilities.
For reference, there are an estimated ~1x10^79 atoms in the universe, so we're WAY beyond that. To examine all of the possibilities in a year, you'd need to look at about 4.3x10^111 possibilities per second. If you wanted to give yourself a little more leisurely pace, say, the lifetime of the universe (~14B years), you could take it easy at a mere 3.1x10^101 (31 googol!) possibilities per second.
So asking about how one specific result will or won't affect our seeding on selection Sunday is not as easy as it appears! ;) Also, you can't really ask whether beating one team is good enough to flip a comparison - what if, heaven forbid, we beat Harvard but lost all our other games? I daresay we would not win the BU comparison (or many others!) after that.
Since my last assessment was overly pessimistic on RPI, let's focus on that for a minute:
Assuming that we end up playing 33 games before selection Sunday (sweeping our playoff series), each win is worth 1/33*.25 = .007576 points in RPI. So if we win out, our record's contribution to our RPI will be 27.5*.007576 = .2083 (26 wins and 3 ties). Our SOS based on our 23 games played is .4857, and our remaining opponents are at .5536 (SLU), 0.5000 (CKN), 0.5652 (HU), 0.5217 (DC), 0.4483 (RPI), and 0.5333 (UC). Assuming they keep up those win percentages, our SOS by the end of the regular season will be up to .4929, or .0072 higher than now. Our opponent's opponent's percentage is at .506. That will probably drop a little bit, since all the ECAC teams are just playing each other, but I'll ignore that for now. Our final non-bonus RPI would then be: .2083 + .5*.4929 + .25*.506 = .5813. To cancel out the fact that I didn't adjust our op-op percentage, I also didn't give our SOS a bump for the good teams that we'll face in the ECAC playoffs. Add in a .0011 bonus for beating MSU at home, and we would end up at .5824. As of now, that would put us in 3rd in RPI, which seems pretty consistent - there are usually only a couple of teams flirting with .6, so .5813 is not too shabby. 3rd in RPI combined with 1st in TUC (which we would almost certainly be if we won out) should be enough to flip the BU comparison back to us and earn a #1 seed. Of course, if BU goes and wins out, too, they'll be doing it against stronger competition, so they might still edge us out.
[quote jkahn]
2) What would the committe do if No. Dakota ends up a possible team in our natural bracket, e.g. 5, 12 or 13 if we're #4.[/quote]
I haven't looked at this year's championship handbook, but if they followed the prescription they laid out in last years, this would only matter if North Dakota were a 4-seed (doesn't matter if they're 13, 14, 15, or 16). In that case, they would be in Grand Forks and no WCHA team could be there as a 1-seed. So if Minny and Wisco are in the top four, one presumably goes to Green Bay and the other to either Albany or Worcester. The overall #4 probably lands in ND in that scenario,
Of course, the committee demonstrated last year with that "we let them settle it on the ice" horseshit that their own power trips are more important than the procedures spelled out in the handbook.
I would just like to point out that, in the above post, like on uscho, our record is listed as 15-4-3 when it is actually 16-4-3. I do not know why this is but would assume that that would have some bearing on the rankings.
[quote Patrick]I would just like to point out that, in the above post, like on uscho, our record is listed as 15-4-3 when it is actually 16-4-3. I do not know why this is but would assume that that would have some bearing on the rankings.[/quote]
RIT doesnt count.
[quote Robb] Of course, if BU goes and wins out, too, they'll be doing it against stronger competition, so they might still edge us out.[/quote]
BU enjoys its current lofty position because it has previoulsy played a strong schedule. That's not true for the rest of the season. W-L-T record of their remaining RS is about 105-101-30 because they've got the RPI-killer, Northeaster, twice. I think our remaining opponents have a higher win % than BUs.
We'll be 1 seed for sure if we win out, and in fact as long as our winning % in our remaining games is at least as high as our close competitors (BU,UNO,MSU,OSU,Ferris) we'll win all those comparisons and that will most likely make us a 1 seed. Their's math behind that, just don't have time to explain it now.
Probably true. Our playoff series should be against a better team than theirs, too - they're likely to get UMass (11-15) or Lowell (10-16-1) (Aside: how much must it suck to be Merrimack - looking UP in the HEA standings at a team that has one win on the season!) while we should end up with someone like Yale (8-12-3), RPI (11-14-4), or Clarkson (13-13-2). Their RPI can't go down because of that, of course, but ours might still go up. Their possible games at the Fleet look pretty simliar to ours, too, e.g. UNH (14-10-4) and BC (16-8-2) to our Harvard (12-9-2) and Colgate (15-8-5).
So I take that back, too - looks like we have a fairly similar strength of remaining schedule as BU. It should come down to who does better against that schedule, particularly our common opponents: Harvard, RPI, Dartmouth for us and Northeastern for them.
[quote Robb]Probably true. Our playoff series should be against a better team than theirs, too - they're likely to get UMass (11-15) or Lowell (10-16-1) (Aside: how much must it suck to be Merrimack - looking UP in the HEA standings at a team that has one win on the season!).[/quote]
As much as it sucks for UMass to *be* that one loser to Northeastern -- and by shut out!
new rankings about the michigan and michigan state wins this week.
33/22/11
still 4t but lose the RPI tie breaker. note that bu has us by .0005 rpi...thank michigan state for that bump :)
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1t Wisconsin 25 5t 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5927
1t Minnesota 25 5t 18-6-4 .7143 2 .5925
3 Miami 24 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5741
4t Colorado College 22 12t 18-11-1 .6167 4 .5563
4t Cornell 22 2t 15-4-3 .7500 6 .5535
6 Boston University 21 8 16-8-2 .6538 5 .5540
7t Michigan State 19 17 17-10-7 .6029 7 .5497
7t Boston College 19 4 18-6-2 .7308 8 .5496
7t Nebraska-Omaha 19 23t 15-11-4 .5667 10 .5485
10 Michigan 18 12t 17-10-3 .6167 9 .5493
11 Harvard 15 26 12-9-2 .5652 16 .5311
12t Ohio State 14 30 14-13-4 .5161 15 .5322
12t Providence 14 21 14-10-2 .5769 12 .5416
14 St. Cloud State 13 10t 16-9-3 .6250 14 .5327
15 Ferris State 12 23t 14-10-6 .5667 13 .5404
16t Denver 10 15t 16-10-2 .6071 19 .5298
16t North Dakota 10 20 18-13-1 .5781 11 .5447
18 Lake Superior 8 15t 14-8-6 .6071 17 .5308
19t St. Lawrence 7 27t 14-11-1 .5577 18 .5303
19t New Hampshire 7 22 14-10-4 .5714 23 .5248
21t Alaska-Fairbanks 6 35 11-13-4 .4643 20 .5297
21t Maine 6 9 18-10-0 .6429 21 .5274
21t Vermont 6 7 17-8-3 .6607 22 .5249
24 Northern Michigan 5 23t 16-12-2 .5667 26 .5178
25 Holy Cross 3 2t 19-6-1 .7500 25 .5203
26 Colgate 1 10t 15-8-5 .6250 24 .5206
27 Dartmouth 0 29 11-10-2 .5217 27 .5135
well...the loss dropped us obviously. another factor that is huge for tonight is that clarkson became a tuc with their win. a large factor down the road is that north dakota now has the COP on us. awaiting the late games before the rankings are fully in the books after 2nite.
I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?
Im seeing 18 both with and without the bonus.
[quote calgARI '07]I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?[/quote]
RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.
[quote Will][quote calgARI '07]I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?[/quote]
RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.[/quote]For things likely addressed that I don't remember the answer to, would including RIT help or hurt us? Sure, we have the extra win, but ...
[quote ugarte][quote Will][quote calgARI '07]I'm sure this has been addressed, but why is Cornell only being given 15 wins in the PWR when they actually have 16?[/quote]
RIT doesn't count because this is their first year in D-I and thus they are ineligible for the NCAA tournament.[/quote]For things likely addressed that I don't remember the answer to, would including RIT help or hurt us? Sure, we have the extra win, but ...[/quote]
According to JTW's script ( http://www.slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006 )
Adding RIT right now would add 0.0015 to our RPI, but we'd still be 11th (in RPI). So as of this moment, it would help us, but little enough to not make a difference.
couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.
33/22/11 after the games last night
results to look for tonight.
1. cornell over SLU(T) obviously - win is good, win vs a tuc better
2. colgate over clarkson - only if we win (otherwise they overtake us in the ecachl standings) - may knock clarkson below tuc status which would be nice...
3. princeton over dc - get dc towards being out of tuc status... we lost to them. also separate us in the standings
4. nmu over neb o - neb o is ahead of cornell
5. lssu over michigan - may bunch things up as lssu will rise but michigan will fall and they are ahead of cornell
6. ferris state and notre dame - i think a notre dame upset would be good here, although some teams between us and ferris may get extra comparisons with a ferris loss
7. fairbanks and bgsu - not sure how close to tuc bgsu is...fairbanks is a long way away from a bid
8. niagara - always root for them to win to become a tuc, improve our oppopp% and possibly for them to win their tourney to become a tuc.
9. uhn merrimack - uhn needs some help. a win for them may solidify their position but it will keep their comparison over cc from flipping down the road to a cc comparison win
10 . maine uvm - a uvm win will hurt maine as they are tied for #14. this will likely help the ecachl down the road...
11. umass providence - providence is close to cornell...let them lose
12. scsu and cc - cc is ahead of cornell...
13. denver mankato - denver holds the comparison over michigan. this will likely not change that comparison.
14. minnesota and mich tech - obviously a loss by minne would be good since they are ahead of cornell.
15. tOSU wisconsin - wi is ahead of cornell... a win for tOSU may make them move a lot....
I think that is it for 2nites games. i may be wrong, didnt look into each one too much.
the biggest thing - if cornell wins and nothing else above happens I will be happy :)
LGR!
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 27 6 19-7-2 .7143 1 .5928
2 Minnesota 26 4 19-6-4 .7241 2 .5894
3 Miami 25 2 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5753
4 Colorado College 23 10 19-11-1 .6290 4 .5639
5t Boston University 22 7 17-8-2 .6667 5 .5566
5t Boston College 22 3 19-6-2 .7407 6 .5550
5t Nebraska-Omaha 22 22 16-11-4 .5806 7 .5519
8 Michigan State 20 17 17-10-7 .6029 8 .5484
9 Cornell 18 5 15-5-3 .7174 11 .5427
10 Harvard 17 21 13-9-2 .5833 15 .5350
11 Michigan 16 18 17-11-3 .5968 10 .5458
12t Providence 14 26 14-11-2 .5556 12 .5393
12t North Dakota 14 23 18-13-1 .5781 9 .5462
14t St. Lawrence 13 24t 15-11-1 .5741 14 .5351
14t Maine 13 8 19-10-0 .6552 13 .5357
14t Ohio State 13 31 14-13-4 .5161 16 .5343
17 Denver 11 11t 17-10-2 .6207 19 .5328
18t St. Cloud State 10 15t 16-10-3 .6034 21 .5275
18t Ferris State 10 27t 14-11-6 .5484 17 .5343
20t Alaska-Fairbanks 8 33 12-13-4 .4828 20 .5311
20t New Hampshire 8 20 15-10-4 .5862 24 .5230
22 Lake Superior 7 11t 15-8-6 .6207 18 .5343
23 Holy Cross 6 1 20-6-1 .7593 22 .5236
24 Vermont 5 9 17-9-3 .6379 23 .5235
25t Dartmouth 3 29 12-10-2 .5417 25 .5170
25t Northern Michigan 3 27t 16-13-2 .5484 27 .5112
27t Colgate 1 15t 15-9-5 .6034 26 .5129
27t Clarkson 1 32 13-13-2 .5000 28 .5020
The obvious problem with Cornell at 9 as of today is not only playing in the Wisconsin regional, but playing Michigan State in the first round ::uhoh::
[quote DeltaOne81]Adding RIT right now would add 0.0015 to our RPI, but we'd still be 11th (in RPI). So as of this moment, it would help us, but little enough to not make a difference.[/quote]
Interesting. At the time, the win over RIT actually hurt our RPI. They must have won a few games.
[quote jy3]couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.[/quote]
Last I heard that minimum was 20, not 25. And there's no problem including RIT; you just leave out their games against non-D1 opponents.
[quote Tub(a)]The obvious problem with Cornell at 9 as of today is not only playing in the Wisconsin regional, but playing Michigan State in the first round ::uhoh::[/quote]That doesn't strike me as a problem. I'd love to get another crack at them. I'd guess the team would too.
[quote jtwcornell91][quote jy3]couple of things...it would be tough to include RIT since they played some dIII schools this year. I think that if you were to include them they would meet the 25 game vs dI school minimum.[/quote]
Last I heard that minimum was 20, not 25. And there's no problem including RIT; you just leave out their games against non-D1 opponents.[/quote]
yeah i wasnt sure if it was 20 or 25. i meant to say that if we get rid of the dIII games they could be counted..
something interesting...scheduling RIT does nothing for the team yet it took up an OOC slot and counted towards the ivy limit. that stinks. although, it may have convinced coach that the team should host the rochester regional :)
Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.
[quote Jim Hyla]Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.[/quote]This isn't to take issue with you, Jim, but with what seems to be the prevailing dichotomy of views: namely, that people are either concentrating on the ECAC, or concentrating on the NCAA. Seems to me that the goal all the time (and I'd guess this is the way Schafer and the team view things) should be to concentrate on winning the next game on the schedule. The rest, whether it's PWR or ECAC playoff matchups, is just idle speculation.
[quote jmh30][quote Jim Hyla]Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.[/quote]This isn't to take issue with you, Jim, but with what seems to be the prevailing dichotomy of views: namely, that people are either concentrating on the ECAC, or concentrating on the NCAA. Seems to me that the goal all the time (and I'd guess this is the way Schafer and the team view things) should be to concentrate on winning the next game on the schedule. The rest, whether it's PWR or ECAC playoff matchups, is just idle speculation.[/quote]Yeah, that's actually what I meant. When I said win the ECAC, I meant the RS title, that is let's take care of the upcoming games and then the tourney. and then worry about the NCAA. The team has put itself in a difficult position for a high seed.
I should have realized that most of the time when we say win the ECAC we mean the tourney. My confusing post.
[quote jmh30][quote Tub(a)]The obvious problem with Cornell at 9 as of today is not only playing in the Wisconsin regional, but playing Michigan State in the first round ::uhoh::[/quote]That doesn't strike me as a problem. I'd love to get another crack at them. I'd guess the team would too.[/quote]
Personally a regional that potentially means games vs. MSU and Wisconsin seems like a pretty good matchup. Cornell matches up reasonably well with both. They know what to expect from MSU and have proven capable of beating them on two weeks practice. It may seem crazy to say that the top team in the PWR is a good matchup but if I had to choose a WCHA team between Minnesota, defending champion Denver (I know they're on the outside looking in now), NoDak at home (ditto), CC, and Wisconsin (playing with the added pressure of trying to play in a "home" frozen four), I'd take WI just about everytime (unless CC decides to stop scoring again). They don't play a typical WCHA run and gun kind of game. They are a lot like the eastern teams that rely on strong defense and opportunistic offense. Of course there's a lot of hockey to go and Cornell has almost as good a chance of seeing BC and Lake State in Albany as MSU and Wisco come March.
[quote Jim Hyla]Well I think we can forget about this for a while and concentrate on winning the ECAC.[/quote]
With electrons being free and all, and our having nearly infinite free time, or so it seems, there's no reason the players can't concentrate on winning the ECAC tournament and leave to us the task of figuring out who is the ideal matchup.
33/22/11
sacred heart is now a tuc...
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 29 4 20-7-2 .7241 1 .5948
2 Minnesota 28 5 19-6-5 .7167 2 .5854
3 Miami 27 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5753
4t Boston University 24 7 17-8-2 .6667 5 .5583
4t Boston College 24 2 19-6-2 .7407 6 .5545
4t Nebraska-Omaha 24 19 17-11-4 .5938 7 .5544
7 Colorado College 23 14t 19-12-1 .6094 4 .5615
8t Michigan 21 14t 18-11-3 .6094 8 .5515
8t Michigan State 21 16 17-10-7 .6029 9 .5492
10 Cornell 20 6 15-5-4 .7083 11 .5430
11t Ohio State 18 31t 14-14-4 .5000 16 .5344
11t Harvard 18 21t 13-9-2 .5833 15 .5348
13 Providence 17 24t 15-11-2 .5714 12 .5417
14t Maine 15 8 19-10-1 .6500 13 .5392
14t Denver 15 9t 18-10-2 .6333 17 .5343
16t St. Cloud State 14 12 17-10-3 .6167 18 .5332
16t St. Lawrence 14 24t 15-11-2 .5714 14 .5376
18 North Dakota 13 23 18-13-1 .5781 10 .5455
19 New Hampshire 11 21t 15-10-5 .5833 23 .5178
20 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 31t 13-13-4 5000 19 .5329
21 Lake Superior 9 17t 15-9-6 .6000 20 .5311
22t Ferris State 8 29t 14-12-6 .5313 21 .5300
22t Vermont 8 9t 17-9-4 .6333 22 .5271
24 Dartmouth 7 26 13-10-2 .5600 24 .5178
25t Holy Cross 5 3 20-7-1 .7321 25 .5167
25t Northern Michigan 5 29t 16-14-2 .5313 27 .5091
27 Colgate 3 17t 15-9-6 .6000 26 .5122
28t Notre Dame 2 39 11-16-3 .4167 28 .5029
28t Clarkson 2 31t 13-13-3 .5000 29 .5027
30 Sacred Heart 0 13 16-10-1 .6111 30 .5020
slight change in rpi for cornell and sucks
Harvard .5348 -> .5329
cornell .5430 -> .5433
bc-bu game pending
[quote jy3]slight change in rpi for cornell and sucks
Harvard .5348 -> .5329
cornell .5430 -> .5433
bc-bu game pending[/quote]
A good example of how poor a measure RPI is. We'll actually get a bigger positive effect in the long run from Harvard's win, as we play them twice and Northeastern only once.
[quote jkahn][quote jy3]slight change in rpi for cornell and sucks
Harvard .5348 -> .5329
cornell .5430 -> .5433
bc-bu game pending[/quote]
A good example of how poor a measure RPI is. We'll actually get a bigger positive effect in the long run from Harvard's win, as we play them twice and Northeastern only once.[/quote]
that is true
33/22/11 with the bu over bc in the beanpot
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 29 3 20-7-2 .7241 1 .5949
2 Minnesota 28 4 19-6-5 .7167 2 .5854
3 Miami 27 1 20-5-4 .7586 3 .5752
4 Boston University 26 7 18-8-2 .6786 4 .5660
5 Nebraska-Omaha 24 20 17-11-4 .5938 6 .5543
6t Colorado College 22 14t 19-12-1 .6094 5 .5618
6t Michigan 22 14t 18-11-3 .6094 7 .5511
6t Boston College 22 5 19-7-2 .7143 8 .5509
9 Michigan State 21 16 17-10-7 .6029 9 .5492
10 Cornell 20 6 15-5-4 .7083 11 .5432
11 Harvard 18 17t 14-9-2 .6000 18 .5331
12t Ohio State 17 31t 14-14-4 .5000 16 .5344
12t Providence 17 24t 15-11-2 .5714 12 .5409
14 Denver 16 9t 18-10-2 .6333 15 .5346
15 Maine 15 8 19-10-1 .6500 13 .5390
16t St. Cloud State 14 12 17-10-3 .6167 17 .5333
16t St. Lawrence 14 24t 15-11-2 .5714 14 .5379
18 North Dakota 13 23 18-13-1 .5781 10 .5456
19 New Hampshire 11 22 15-10-5 .5833 24 .5173
20 Alaska-Fairbanks 10 31t 13-13-4 .5000 19 .5328
21 Lake Superior 9 17t 15-9-6 .6000 20 .5310
22t Ferris State 8 29t 14-12-6 .5313 21 .5296
22t Vermont 8 9t 17-9-4 .6333 22 .5255
24 Dartmouth 7 26 13-10-2 .5600 23 .5187
25t Holy Cross 5 2 20-7-1 .7321 25 .5167
25t Northern Michigan 5 29t 16-14-2 .5313 27 .5091
27t Colgate 3 17t 15-9-6 .6000 26 .5125
27t Clarkson 3 31t 13-13-3 .5000 28 .5029
29 Notre Dame 1 39 11-16-3 .4167 29 .5028
30 Sacred Heart 0 13 16-10-1 .6111 30 .5020
Last night's Beanpot results had the enormous impact of moving us from a first-round matchup against Michigan in Wisconsin... to a first-round matchup against Michigan in North Dakota. Woo.
Beeeej
...and meanwhile Sucks gets to stay in Albany.
So, in the spirit of Bill Maher's "New Rules", here's a new rule:
If you can't regularly fill your own arena, and when you do, most of the fans are rooting against you, then you never get to play in a regional anywhere near home. You get sent to the most god-forsaken, faraway spot available.
Harvard's got 2 chances in 2 regionals right now. Little oops from the bracketologist. ::screwy::
yeah the albany sucks should be tOSU
No he just thinks they are that deserving of two first round losses this year :-D
Bracket Inflation? :-)
well pending some late games with the 33/22/11 we are alone at 7th
33/22/11
SLU(T) jumps, SUCKS falls, we rise. neb-o keeps getting it done with a huge win at michigan.
Rk Team PWR Record RPIRk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Wisconsin 29 3 21-7-2 .7333 1 .5931
2 Minnesota 28 4 20-6-5 .7258 2 .5899
3 Miami 27 1 21-6-4 .7419 3 .5734
4 Nebraska-Omaha 25 16 18-11-4 .6061 6 .5554
5 Boston University 24 8 18-9-2 .6552 5 .5586
6t Colorado College 23 14 19-12-1 .6094 4 .5610
6t Michigan State 23 10 18-10-7 .6143 7 .5552
8 Cornell 22 5 16-5-4 .7200 8 .5497
9 Michigan 21 19t 18-12-3 .5909 9 .5484
10 Boston College 19 6 19-8-2 .6897 11 .5456
11 Denver 17 11t 18-11-2 .6129 14 .5350
12t St. Lawrence 16 21 16-11-2 .5862 13 .5360
12t Maine 16 7 20-10-1 .6613 12 .5441
12t Ohio State 16 34 14-15-5 .4853 16 .5302
12t Harvard 16 23 14-10-2 .5769 18 .5283
16t Alaska-Fairbanks 13 33 13-13-4 .5000 15 .5320
16t St. Cloud State 13 17t 17-11-3 .5968 20 .5271
16t North Dakota 13 19t 19-13-1 .5909 10 .5468
19t Providence 12 25 16-12-2 .5667 19 .5276
19t New Hampshire 12 17t 16-10-5 .5968 21 .5262
21 Ferris State 9 29 14-12-7 .5303 17 .5284
22 Lake Superior 8 22 15-10-6 .5806 22 .5251
23t Holy Cross 7 2 21-7-1 .7414 23 .5226
23t Vermont 7 11t 17-10-4 .6129 24 .5195
25 Northern Michigan 6 27 17-14-2 .5455 27 .5131
26 Dartmouth 5 28 13-11-2 .5385 25 .5169
27 Colgate 4 11t 16-9-6 .6129 26 .5161
28 Clarkson 3 31 14-13-3 .5167 28 .5049
29 Notre Dame 1 38 12-16-3 .4355 29 .5041
30 Sacred Heart 0 9 17-10-1 .6250 30 .5006
Despite the debacle upstate last week we're still in excellent position for eastern ice. Out of town results loom large in this but let's start with what we control.
If we win tonight we flip the BU comparison by virtue of COP. We'd then be at 23 comps and tied with BU and MSU, but still 8th overall because we'd still be losing the RPI tie breaker to both.
At this point the Miami-MSU game becomes important. It's a win-win for us, but one outcome is ultimately better. If MSU wins then we'll win the Miami comparison because COP flips to us. We're now at 24 comps, but an MSU win will cause them to pick up their comp with BU, so we'll now be in 7th, still losing the tie with MSU but now ahead of BU, and still heading west. And MSU will lengthen their RPI lead over us. I'm rooting for Miami tonight. Although it won't result in an immediate pickup it will put MSU's RPI within striking distance. Ultimately, winning the MSU comp by virtue of RPI will be more important to us than winning the Miami comp because of COP.
Other significant games tonight include:
Mich over UNO: close the RPI distance with UNO so that their RPI killing visit to WMU next week closes the deal for us.
Brown over Clarkson: maintaining our TUC % helps us defend where we are rather than pick up new comparisons, but we're on the edge in enough of those so we need all the help we can get. Let's get Clarkson out of TUC.
Colgate over Dartmouth: it will be a longshot for Dartmouth to drop from TUC, but it's still possible. We also need Colgate to stay TUC.
UNH over BU: winning the BU comparison by RPI is more important than squeaking through on COP. With BU having 2 left against NU this is very possible. BU losing again tonight helps a lot.
Maine over BC: We need to keep the slim RPI advantage we have over BC.
UMD over NoDak: If we end up as a 1 seed and NoDak makes the tournament as a low seed, and host, we could still end up heading west. We want NoDak out.
With the end of the RS in sight, we could very possibly pick up 3 comparisons by then: UNO, BU and MSU - getting us #4 overall. Even CC and Miami (though probably mutually exclusive with, and less desireable than, MSU) are possible. Just win.
One other thought. If UND makes it, they'll likely be a 4 seed. That means that at least one of the AH and CHA teams will stay east. If we are a 1 seed (unlikely), we might get one of them. Unless of course they send us west to avoid a WCHA vs WCHA first round match-up.
Oh, never mind. Just win.
[quote Jeff Hopkins '82]One other thought. If UND makes it, they'll likely be a 4 seed. That means that at least one of the AH and CHA teams will stay east. If we are a 1 seed (unlikely), we might get one of them. Unless of course they send us west to avoid a WCHA vs WCHA first round match-up.[/quote]
They'd have to do the latter. Its in the rules.
Alone in 8th using 33/22/11. Doesn't seem to have killed us too much (though I don't know the details about comparisons).
33/22/11
DOESNT Look like it hurt too much but it made comparisons that were in reach far from reach now. a loss today and a win next month is better than a win now and a loss then :)
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Minnesota 29 1 21-6-5 .7344 1 .5934
2 Wisconsin 28 3 21-7-3 .7258 2 .5888
3 Miami 27 4 21-7-4 .7188 3 .5701
4t Boston University 25 7t 19-9-2 .6667 4 .5640
4t Michigan State 25 10t 19-10-7 .6250 5 .5618
6 Nebraska-Omaha 24 14t 18-11-5 .6029 7 .5546
7 Colorado College 23 9 21-12-1 .6324 6 .5590
8 Cornell 21 5 16-6-4 .6923 11 .5442
9t Maine 20 6 21-10-1 .6719 8 .5502
9t Michigan 20 20 18-12-4 .5882 9 .5496
11 Boston College 18 7t 19-9-2 .6667 12 .5421
12t Ohio State 17 32t 15-15-5 .5000 16 .5316
12t Harvard 17 19 15-10-2 .5926 14 .5356
14t St. Lawrence 15 16 17-11-2 .6000 13 .5357
14t Denver 15 17t 18-12-2 .5938 15 .5342
16 North Dakota 14 14t 20-13-1 .6029 10 .5488
17t Alaska-Fairbanks 12 32t13-13-5 .5000 18 .5267
17t Providence 12 24 16-12-2 .5667 17 .5277
17t New Hampshire 12 22t 16-11-5 .5781 19 .5258
20 St. Cloud State 11 22t 17-12-3 .5781 23 .5206
21 Holy Cross 10 2 21-7-2 .7333 20 .5251
22 Northern Michigan 9 26 18-14-2 .5588 26 .5180
23 Vermont 8 10t 18-10-4 .6250 24 .5194
24 Ferris State 7 31 14-13-7 .5147 21 .5234
25 Lake Superior 5 25 15-11-6 .5625 25 .5185
26t Colgate 4 17t 16-10-6 .5938 27 .5115
26t Dartmouth 4 27 14-11-2 .5556 22 .5223
28 Clarkson 2 29 15-13-3 .5323 28 .5035
29 Notre Dame 1 39 12-16-4 .4375 29 .5022
30 Mercyhurst 0 13 17-11-1 .6034 30 .5009
Things are still pretty fragile (i.e. highly variable) Pairwise. For example, immediately after the loss last night, we were #10 and Harvard #11, for all of 33/22/11, 3/2/1, and 0/0/0. But with the subsequent BC loss and Michigan tie dropping those two down and the Maine and OSU wins moving those two up, we wound up at #8 and Harvard at #13. It just shows how quick and quirky things move even when you're not playing. Next week's games are very important to making sure we secure a tournament spot - and Union is especially important to the PWR as they're real close to being a TUC and a Cornell loss would add 0-2 to our TUC record.
[quote DeltaOne81][quote Jeff Hopkins '82]One other thought. If UND makes it, they'll likely be a 4 seed. That means that at least one of the AH and CHA teams will stay east. If we are a 1 seed (unlikely), we might get one of them. Unless of course they send us west to avoid a WCHA vs WCHA first round match-up.[/quote]
They'd have to do the latter. Its in the rules.[/quote]
They could send a CCHA school (especially UNO) to Grand Forks instead of us. They wouldn't have to woory about attendance if UND made the tourney, and might have a problem with attendance, without an eastern team as a 1 seed there.
Glad to see St. Lawrence back in the picture.
[quote canuck89]Glad to see St. Lawrence back in the picture.[/quote]
yes, i would not mind hahvahd and slu(T) making the tourney. besides us going west right now, the current set up wouldnt be bad thing for the ecachl
Don't want to be an alarmist, but our NCAA berth is certainly not a sure thing. Union and RPI are just under being TUC, and TUC is currently winning us a lot of comparisons. Tonight is big in helping us avoid adding 0-2 to our TUC record. An RPI win vs. 'gate tonight could add another 0-1-1. Whether RPI and Union end up TUC will depend not only on tonight but the ECACHL tourney as well.
Tonight's a very big one. Let's Go Red.
National tournament predictions don't look especially relevant after the last few weeks. We're 1-3-1 with our defensemen all hurt. I'm not sure we could beat the CHA auto bid winner at Lynah right now.
33/22/11 as of this AM
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Minnesota 30 1 22-6-5 .7424 1 .5895
2 Wisconsin 29 4 21-8-3 .7031 2 .5803
3 Miami 28 2 22-7-4 .7273 3 .5698
4t Boston University 26 8 19-9-3 .6613 4 .5650
4t Michigan State 26 10 20-10-7 .6351 5 .5625
6t Colorado College 24 9 22-12-1 .6429 6 .5574
6t Nebraska-Omaha 24 17 18-11-6 .6000 8 .5521
8t North Dakota 21 14 21-13-1 .6143 7 .5529
8t Harvard 21 15 16-10-2 .6071 12 .5423
8t Cornell 21 7 16-7-4 .6667 13 .5387
11t Maine 20 5 22-10-1 .6818 9 .5485
11t Michigan 20 19 18-12-5 .5857 10 .5484
13 Boston College 19 6 20-9-2 .6774 11 .5435
14 Ohio State 17 34 15-16-5 .4861 17 .5281
15 Providence 15 25t 16-12-3 .5645 16 .5288
16t Denver 14 21t 18-13-2 .5758 14 .5316
16t St. Lawrence 14 20 17-12-2 .5806 15 .5314
18t New Hampshire 12 21t 16-11-6 .5758 21 .5229
18t Dartmouth 12 23t 15-11-2 .5714 18 .5266
20t Holy Cross 11 3 21-8-2 .7097 20 .5230
20t St. Cloud State 11 18 18-12-3 .5909 22 .5226
20t Northern Michigan 11 23t 19-14-2 .5714 25 .5199
23 Ferris State 9 32 14-13-8 .5143 19 .5234
24 Vermont 8 12 18-10-5 .6212 23 .5217
25 Alaska-Fairbanks 6 33 14-14-5 .5000 24 .5208
26 Lake Superior 5 28 15-12-6 .5455 26 .5170
27 Sacred Heart 4 11 18-10-2 .6333 28 .5081
28t Notre Dame 3 39 13-16-4 .4545 29 .5055
28t Colgate 3 16 17-10-6 .6061 27 .5150
30 Clarkson 1 30 15-14-3 .5156 31 .5006
31 Mercyhurst 0 13 18-11-1 .6167 30 .5023
[quote jkahn]
Tonight's a very big one. Let's Go Red.[/quote]
Big win. I feel a whole lot better now, despite being on a 13 hour airplane flight between these last two posts.
I know it's early, but anyone else see the potential nightmare of going to Grand Forks to play UND? And then Minnesota. I think Michigan deserves that fate more than anyone else, for the hell that WCHA teams have had for going to play at Yost or Grand Rapids against Mich for a regional.
[quote redGrinch]I know it's early, but anyone else see the potential nightmare of going to Grand Forks to play UND? And then Minnesota. I think Michigan deserves that fate more than anyone else, for the hell that WCHA teams have had for going to play at Yost or Grand Rapids against Mich for a regional.[/quote]
We should hope to be in UND's band... to 1) avoid playing them, and 2) give us a 2 in 3 shot to stay east.
Given the up and down nature of this year's team and the lack of depth on D, all eyes really ought to turn towards the ECACs as the Big Achievement for this season. If the Red win it all in Albany, I won't be disappointed if they get sent to Ulan Bator.
Does that mean that we should drop a few in the PWR? I always get incensed this time of year when such inane scenarios start to play out. Come on, it has to be a neutral game, no matter what. Am I the only one who feels like it's a big part of the western dominance lately in the tourney? They're getting home games and revenue out of the national tournament! Playing anyone on their home olympic ice sheet is a fate that should go to the autobid teams, not to some major conference champion. Ok, sorry.::snore:: ::snore::
Does anyone know what size ice the Green Bay arena has? I see that Michigan Tech is the host, but it's not their regular ice. Resch is tied to UW-GB. It's refreshing that it's almost a "neutral site." Also, looking ahead to 2007, can it be anyone except us as the host in Rochester? Am I too optimistic about it?
[quote Trotsky]Given the up and down nature of this year's team and the lack of depth on D, all eyes really ought to turn towards the ECACs as the Big Achievement for this season. If the Red win it all in Albany, I won't be disappointed if they get sent to Ulan Bator.[/quote]
Agree 100%.
[quote Trotsky]Given the up and down nature of this year's team and the lack of depth on D, all eyes really ought to turn towards the ECACs as the Big Achievement for this season. If the Red win it all in Albany, I won't be disappointed if they get sent to Ulan Bator.[/quote]
200x100 rink there and a sign that says, "Go Gophers," with our luck.
[quote Winnabago]Does anyone know what size ice the Green Bay arena has? I see that Michigan Tech is the host, but it's not their regular ice. Resch is tied to UW-GB. It's refreshing that it's almost a "neutral site." Also, looking ahead to 2007, can it be anyone except us as the host in Rochester? Am I too optimistic about it?[/quote]
Both Green Bay and Fargo are regulation North American rinks. So at least there's that this year.
[quote Winnabago]Does that mean that we should drop a few in the PWR? I always get incensed this time of year when such inane scenarios start to play out. Come on, it has to be a neutral game, no matter what. Am I the only one who feels like it's a big part of the western dominance lately in the tourney? They're getting home games and revenue out of the national tournament! Playing anyone on their home olympic ice sheet is a fate that should go to the autobid teams, not to some major conference champion. Ok, sorry.::snore:: ::snore::
Does anyone know what size ice the Green Bay arena has? I see that Michigan Tech is the host, but it's not their regular ice. Resch is tied to UW-GB. It's refreshing that it's almost a "neutral site." Also, looking ahead to 2007, can it be anyone except us as the host in Rochester? Am I too optimistic about it?[/quote]
FYI, Engelstad is NHL size; I believe Green Bay is also. Also ECACHL is the host for Rochester - all host data can be found here: http://www.ncaasports.com/icehockey/mens/schedules/
It's been discussed before, but the problem with western regional sites is there just aren't too many neutral site rinks that can be used.... Grand Rapids; maybe Cleveland. Not as many AHL-sized arenas out there. The reality is that there just aren't too many applications for western regional sites so the schools with the large rinks step in.
Next year both western sites are standard NA rinks too - the AHL rink in Grand Rapids and the Pepsi Center in Denver.
2008, unfortuantely is CC and UW's home sites, with widths of 100 and 97 feet, respectively.
2009 we return (hopefully not we literally) to Mariucci, but the other is the AHL rink in Grand Rapids again.
Denver scored 5 in the third to beat NoDak 7-3 tonight. That should flip the DU/ND comparison and give Harvard/Cornell a three comparison lead over North Dakota and move DU back into tourney position at #14 at the moment. We'll see what holds up next week (Denver plays CC, NoDak plays MTU).
yeah with 33/22/11 we are tied with SUCKS for 7th. this is pending the minnesota result
[quote redGrinch]
FYI, Engelstad is NHL size; I believe Green Bay is also. Also ECACHL is the host for Rochester - all host data can be found here: http://www.ncaasports.com/icehockey/mens/schedules/
It's been discussed before, but the problem with western regional sites is there just aren't too many neutral site rinks that can be used.... Grand Rapids; maybe Cleveland. Not as many AHL-sized arenas out there. The reality is that there just aren't too many applications for western regional sites so the schools with the large rinks step in.[/quote]
Thanks for the link. I can't find anything online about Green Bay, but apparently Engelstad has two sheets in the building at different sizes - for practice depending on the opponent, I guess, but the main arena is definitely 200x85. It would be a shame to play NoDak there, especially for a team that's a higher seed.
I guess the only real certainty is to be the host. The ECACHL and RPI are listed as hosts this year. Is there a similar relationship to Rochester next year for us? Geographically, it's our backyard.
If this has already been discussed, sorry. ::doh::
minne beats the seawolves and clinches first place...
33/22/11
Rk Team PWR Record RPI
Rk W-L-T Win % Rk RPI
1 Minnesota 29 1 23-6-5 .7500 1 .5867
2 Wisconsin 28 5 21-9-3 .6818 2 .5739
3 Miami 27 2 23-7-4 .7353 4 .5678
4 Boston University 26 7t 19-9-4 .6563 3 .5689
5 Michigan State 25 11 20-10-8 .6316 5 .5604
6 Colorado College 24 9 23-12-1 .6528 6 .5550
7t Cornell 22 6 17-7-4 .6786 10 .5422
7t Harvard 22 12 17-10-2 .6207 9 .5447
9t North Dakota 19 15 21-14-1 .5972 7 .5491
9t Maine 19 3 23-10-1 .6912 8 .5471
9t Michigan 19 24 18-13-5 .5694 11 .5422
9t Nebraska-Omaha 19 21t 18-12-6 .5833 12 .5418
13 Boston College 17 7t 20-10-2 .6563 14 .5362
14t New Hampshire 16 17t 17-11-6 .5882 16 .5293
------
14t Denver 16 17t 19-13-2 .5882 13 .5370
16t Dartmouth 12 20 16-11-2 .5862 15 .5319
16t Northern Michigan 12 21t 20-14-2 .5833 23 .5233
18t Ohio State 11 36 15-17-5 .4730 21 .5237
18t Providence 11 26t 16-13-3 .5469 19 .5255
20t St. Lawrence 10 25 17-13-2 .5625 18 .5270
20t Vermont 10 13t 18-10-6 .6176 20 .5242
22 Ferris State 9 30 15-13-8 .5278 17 .5279
23 St. Cloud State 7 17t 18-12-4 .5882 26 .5204
24 Alaska-Fairbanks 6 31 15-14-5 .5147 24 .5213
25t Lake Superior 5 28 15-12-7 .5441 25 .5205
25t Minnesota State 5 32t 16-16-4 .5000 29 .5036
27t Holy Cross 3 4 21-9-2 .6875 22 .5234
27t Sacred Heart 3 10 19-10-2 .6452 28 .5170
29 Notre Dame 2 39 13-17-4 .4412 30 .5023
30 Colgate 1 13t 18-10-6 .6176 27 .5198
So NoDak moved up like... 5 or 6 places by losing to Denver? PWR confuses me.
[quote Dafatone]So NoDak moved up like... 5 or 6 places by losing to Denver? PWR confuses me.[/quote]
One more reason to wonder about NCAA absolutism of banding the teams -- you're one of 4 1-seeds, 2-seeds, 3-seeds, 4-seeds, and can't be moved out of band to accommodate other problems. The lowest 2-seed is essentially the same as the highest 3-seed, and maybe given the dynamics, maybe not a lot different than the highest of the 4-seeds.
Someone should calculate a margin of error. If nothing else, consider how much a team's PWR changes over any one week ... or how much it changes if the team's result isn't counted and you only calculate what the other teams did.
The two worst things about the hockey seeding are a) when the committee has little flexibility and b) when it has a lot.
[quote Dafatone]So NoDak moved up like... 5 or 6 places by losing to Denver? PWR confuses me.[/quote]
No, they were higher after Friday night, when they BEAT Denver. They split on the weekend with a good team, so they moved up.
Oh, okay, they split with Denver. Makes sense, though the jump they took was huge.
[quote Dafatone]Oh, okay, they split with Denver. Makes sense, though the jump they took was huge.[/quote]
Go to http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2006/rankings.diy.shtml, run the script and look at which comparisons North Dakota is winning now. Then go to the list of games played and erase the ones from this weekend (they're listed by date in year, month, day format with no hyphens or spaces) and make sure to check "Specify Results". Run the script again and compare which comparisons they were winning before the weekend.
Aside from having to travel to GB, our draw right now in the NCAAs is pretty good. UNO, and with a win, a Wisconsin team that's struggling. Who knows what the eventual draw will be, but this one isn't so bad. Also, good to see Harvard finally sent West.
So do we think that Cornell needs to get 5th or 6th to stay east? Is it a sure-thing that Minnesota and Wisconsin stay top 2?
I think a big X-Factor could be Niagra. They have been playing well of late (swept Bemidji this weekend). If they win the CHA tournament that will give us two more wins over TUC's. I'm not sure if it would help us win any comparisons, but at the least it would be some insurance if we bow out early of the ECAC tournament (against a TUC). PWR junkies please correct me if I'm wrong.
[quote jkahn][quote jkahn]
Tonight's a very big one. Let's Go Red.[/quote]
Big win. I feel a whole lot better now, despite being on a 13 hour airplane flight between these last two posts.[/quote]
Just used JTW's slack.net script to see how big last night's win was. We would've dropped to 13th with a loss last night.
[quote jkahn]Just used JTW's slack.net script to see how big last night's win was. We would've dropped to 13th with a loss last night.[/quote]
Meaning that we'd better sweep our QF opponent rather than going 2-1... ::uhoh::
Every team beating us in a comparison is doing so by RPI alone, excluding Wisconsin and Minny - they are just beating us in everything.
With teams we are currently winning comparisons against (like Sucks, BC, Michigan, UNO, etc) we already have the TUC upperhand. So Niagara becoming a TUC won't help us win anymore comparions, but it will go a long way to making sure we don't lose any.
Losing in the playoffs is not an option now, the RPI won't go down with a win anymore but it can certainly drop if we lose - so just keep winning
[quote oceanst41]Every team beating us in a comparison is doing so by RPI alone, excluding Wisconsin and Minny - they are just beating us in everything.
With teams we are currently winning comparisons against (like Sucks, BC, Michigan, UNO, etc) we already have the TUC upperhand. So Niagara becoming a TUC won't help us win anymore comparions, but it will go a long way to making sure we don't lose any.
Losing in the playoffs is not an option now, the RPI won't go down with a win anymore but it can certainly drop if we lose - so just keep winning[/quote]
so given that, can we move up in pairwise to let's say #4 by winning against 2 non-tuc twice, and two tucs in albany? ie. will winning out actually increase the rpi enough that we can become a #1 seed?
Its distinctly possible, but depends a lot on what the teams ahead of us do. If a few of them lose, absolutely. If most of them win out, then I would doubt it.
Right now, the goal has gotta be to get to the 6-3 range as the Western teams have the top two spots all but sewn up. If Cornell wins out, how likely is it that they get into the 6-3 range? And if Cornell sweeps the QF and split in Albany, what are the chnaces of that happening?
Hate to say it, but even at a lower seed, we could be given to the Albany regional provided we aren't required to be screwed over.
[quote Ack]Hate to say it, but even at a lower seed, we could be given to the Albany regional provided we aren't required to be screwed over.[/quote]
If MN and WI are predestined for one and two, then seven, eight, nine, ten, fifteen, and sixteen look to be headed west. Unless, that is, the dreaded intraconference first-round matchup rears its ugly head.
[quote Al DeFlorio][quote Ack]Hate to say it, but even at a lower seed, we could be given to the Albany regional provided we aren't required to be screwed over.[/quote]
If MN and WI are predestined for one and two, then seven, eight, nine, ten, fifteen, and sixteen look to be headed west. Unless, that is, the dreaded intraconference first-round matchup rears its ugly head.[/quote]
Which poses some really interesting problems if UND makes it in to the tournament as a 4 seed in their regional. Neither Wisc or Minny would be able to be the 1 seed there. It would likely be Miami @UND, UMN @ Green Bay (Wisc isn't actually the host), and UW sent out east.
From what I played around with we would need help, i.e. MSU or BU tanking it early in their playoffs
[quote Al DeFlorio][quote Ack]Hate to say it, but even at a lower seed, we could be given to the Albany regional provided we aren't required to be screwed over.[/quote]
If MN and WI are predestined for one and two, then seven, eight, nine, ten, fifteen, and sixteen look to be headed west. Unless, that is, the dreaded intraconference first-round matchup rears its ugly head.[/quote]
... sticking it to another school with rabid fans who'll pack an arena within a couple hours drive.
Might I be so bold as to suggest that this thread be closed on 2/28 and a new thread started for March PWR discussions? It is getting a little large to navigate IMNSHO
Kevin
Agreed. The recruit one should be restarted also. I think it might be more unwieldy than the unwieldy thread it was meant to replace. ::nut::
Yes, we are definitely in need of a new "playoff edition" of the 2005-2006 PWR thread (I was thinking that last night, just not up to suggesting it). Maybe we can call the new thread "By the Numbers: How to get to Grand Forks, ND". ;-)
Yes, I know way too early to be speculating how the committee will send us to ND. We need to focus on getting Cornell to Albany!!
EDIT: Albany for the ECACHL!
Maybe not so bad. This years recruits look small so hopefully they're fast and can use the space.:-D
i can create it tomorrow AM after I get back from call
well pm not AM :)
here is the new thread
http://elf.elynah.com/read.php?1,87391