I'll start (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Predictions.html).
[b]W L T Pts[/b]
[hr]
1 Quinnipiac 16 4 2 34
2 [color=#b31313]Cornell[/color] 12 6 4 28
3 Clarkson 12 8 2 26
4 Colgate 11 9 2 24
5 Union 11 9 2 24
6 Harvard 11 9 2 24
7 Dartmouth 10 9 3 23
8 Yale 7 12 3 17
9 Brown 7 13 2 16
10 Princeton 7 13 2 16
11 St. Lawrence 7 13 2 16
12 RPI 8 14 0 16
Quote from: Trotsky
Deleted because it doesn't make sense now.
Hyperlinks are your friend.
Quote from: TrotskyHyperlinks are your friend.
Not those on ELynah when one is colorblind. :-D
Thanks.
Pretty sure I asked the same question last year, but if I'm understanding correctly, isn't the "future" category mislabeled as it is looking at the "past" ten seasons?
Quote from: BearLoverPretty sure I asked the same question last year, but if I'm understanding correctly, isn't the "future" category mislabeled as it is looking at the "past" ten seasons?
Once upon a time, the Predictions weighted Past and Future factors based on the percentage of returning points and goaltender minutes:
The Future
Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming player: their quality and quantity.
Avg10 above, carried down.
Inc%, the estimate of quantity, is simply 1 - RP%.
Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, is the product of Avg10 and Inc%.
The idea was intuitive enough. A team would regress towards its traditional norms to the extent it was losing a large percentage of playing time and thus replicating its ordinary recruiting level, while it would maintain its more recent level of success -- good or ill -- to the extent it was returning a large percentage of playing time.
That calculation was:
1) A PITA
2) Not a great theoretical metric for the phenomenon it attempted to isolate
3) Not producing good predictions, and especially
4) See 1)
So I killed the percentage weighting. In doing so, yes, I accept that I eviscerated the Past vs Future division of the factors.
I'll think about changing some names. It is a fair critique; thank you.
Updated. Tell me what you think. You may have to right-click and "Reload frame."
Also I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).
Quote from: ursusminorQuote from: TrotskyHyperlinks are your friend.
Not those on ELynah when one is colorblind. :-D
Thanks.
Whoops, sorry. Here: http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Predictions.html
Quote from: TrotskyAlso I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).
Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...
BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.
Quote from: ursusminorQuote from: TrotskyAlso I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).
Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...
BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.
Did the administration change?
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: ursusminorQuote from: TrotskyAlso I fucked up the rank order, so please note the changes (ursusmajor's reply is now OBE).
Considering that I am even shorter than when I adopted the ursusminor handle, ...
BTW, considering how much turnover RPI had, #12 makes a lot of sense. OTOH, I am optimistic that RPI will get to Lake Placid for the first time in ages. Your algorithm doesn't include a factor for replacing a coach hired by a school administration that wanted RPI hockey to die with a coach who was able to get AIC to the top of the AHA four years in a row.
Did the administration change?
The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).
Of course the only reason
EVERYONE hated her is because she is a height challenged woman of color. But yeah, replaced by an alum that actually seems to care about the school and isn't afraid to casually talk to the students
ON CAMPUS WITHOUT A SECURITY ENTOURAGE.
It also helps that they have a newer AD along with the newer president
Quote from: martyQuote from: TrotskyDid the administration change?
The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).
It's nice (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/838-Sly-Pond-Rd-Fort-Ann-NY-12827/32889894_zpid/).
https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/84bb229b347b75f39a632fdabf03b868-cc_ft_768.webp;
Looks like RPI made a killing on the sale (bought $600k sold $1.1M just 5 years later). Good for them.
From a perusal of a lot of different social media posts it appears your dislike for her was... not unique. "Cunt of Biblical proportions" was one of the more kind assessments.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: martyQuote from: TrotskyDid the administration change?
The witch is gone as is her mansion in the Adirondacks that virtually no one knew she had negotiated (demanded?).
It's nice (https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/838-Sly-Pond-Rd-Fort-Ann-NY-12827/32889894_zpid/).
https://photos.zillowstatic.com/fp/84bb229b347b75f39a632fdabf03b868-cc_ft_768.webp;
Looks like RPI made a killing on the sale (bought $600k sold $1.1M just 5 years later). Good for them.
From a perusal of a lot of different social media posts it appears your dislike for her was... not unique. "Cunt of Biblical proportions" was one of the more kind assessments.
I'm stealing that one to use later.
I mean it works both bad and good.
Quote from: TrotskyI mean it works both bad and good.
Nice one
A lot larger uncertainty this year than most with a new head coach.
Quote from: TrotskyI'll start (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Predictions.html).
[b]W L T Pts[/b]
[hr]
1 Quinnipiac 16 4 2 34
2 [color=#b31313]Cornell[/color] 12 6 4 28
3 Clarkson 12 8 2 26
4 Colgate 11 9 2 24
5 Union 11 9 2 24
6 Harvard 11 9 2 24
7 Dartmouth 10 9 3 23
8 Yale 7 12 3 17
9 Brown 7 13 2 16
10 Princeton 7 13 2 16
11 St. Lawrence 7 13 2 16
12 RPI 8 14 0 16
Looking at that without looking at where it came from, it looks like RPI should be #9 since wins is the first tie-breaker. I'd rather have us indeed predicted as #12 since it can make RPI louse up your predictions worse if say half of RPI's portal additions and other new players perform as hoped. Note that Neutral Zone ranked RPI as #1 in the country in Portal additions (https://neutralzone.com/transfer-portal-team-rankings/). ::whistle:: Granted, I do not agree that simply adding the value of each new player makes sense. RPI was #33 is the country in other recruits (#5 in the ECAC). And then there is the expected benefit of a coach who got AIC out of the toilet. :-D
And you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.
Quote from: billhowardAnd you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.
Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.
Quote from: ursusminorLooking at that without looking at where it came from, it looks like RPI should be #9 since wins is the first tie-breaker.
Look where it came from. It's right. Where by right I mean the ass I pulled it from is ISO compliant.
Quote from: ursusminorQuote from: billhowardAnd you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.
Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.
RPI reddit (not even hockey) was 10x more amplified. She unified the entire campus community. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all hated her.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: ursusminorQuote from: billhowardAnd you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.
Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.
RPI reddit (not even hockey) was 10x more amplified. She unified the entire campus community. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all hated her.
There still are fans who think that Seth Appert should not have been fired.
Quote from: ursusminorQuote from: TrotskyQuote from: ursusminorQuote from: billhowardAnd you are also one of the ones elated that Shirley Ann Jackson has since decamped RPI? IIRC, SAJ was going to be in the 2017-2021 cabinet of President H Clinton except that hit a roadblock.
Yes. I don't think that any of the RPI fans who post on USCHO were sad when SAJ retired.
RPI reddit (not even hockey) was 10x more amplified. She unified the entire campus community. The sportos, motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all hated her.
There still are fans who think that Seth Appert should not have been fired.
"Where you stand depends on where you sit."
We are third in the ECAC preseason poll. https://cornellbigred.com/news/2025/9/25/mens-ice-hockey-2025-26-ecac-hockey-preseason-poll-release.aspx
Seems reasonable.
Quote from: chimpfoodWe are third in the ECAC preseason poll. https://cornellbigred.com/news/2025/9/25/mens-ice-hockey-2025-26-ecac-hockey-preseason-poll-release.aspx
Clarkson ahead of Cornell doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me
Quote from: BearLoverQuote from: chimpfoodWe are third in the ECAC preseason poll. https://cornellbigred.com/news/2025/9/25/mens-ice-hockey-2025-26-ecac-hockey-preseason-poll-release.aspx
Clarkson ahead of Cornell doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me
Most the league isn't up Cornell's ass as far as we here are, and they see Cornell losing half their team and their GOAT coach.
Unless you are saying it could have been Dartmouth 2nd. I could see that.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: BearLoverQuote from: chimpfoodWe are third in the ECAC preseason poll. https://cornellbigred.com/news/2025/9/25/mens-ice-hockey-2025-26-ecac-hockey-preseason-poll-release.aspx
Clarkson ahead of Cornell doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me
Most the league isn't up Cornell's ass as far as we here are, and they see Cornell losing half their team and their GOAT coach.
Unless you are saying it could have been Dartmouth 2nd. I could see that.
I am just saying that Cornell looks like a better team than Clarkson (and also Dartmouth for that matter). From a quick skim of who these teams added and who they lost, Clarkson (and certainly Dartmouth) still seem a step behind Cornell. Obviously I don't have much to go off of here but the USCHO poll which has Cornell 17 and Clarkson 22 seems more reasonable.
"We will know
When it is time to know"
Cornell is the 10th youngest team in the country. The only teams younger are entirely ones stocked with high end recruits: in order, BU (youngest), UMich, BC, MSU, Denver, Harvard, Minn, Providence, NoDak.
Amazingly, despite being young, Cornell is the heaviest team in the entire country. Our freshmen haven't even hit Teagle yet. We are also the second tallest team in the country, after UMass-Lowell.
Posted my yearly ECAC preview this morning. I have Cornell 3rd, not as much scoring depth as past years but love the defense and Cournoyer in the net. Hope you all enjoy!
https://www.rpifieldhouse.com/p/ecac-preview-2025-26
Quote from: sezenack on October 02, 2025, 10:21:41 AMPosted my yearly ECAC preview this morning. I have Cornell 3rd, not as much scoring depth as past years but love the defense and Cournoyer in the net. Hope you all enjoy!
https://www.rpifieldhouse.com/p/ecac-preview-2025-26
I appreciate your good work as usual. The only thing missing is an explanation of how the model works.
I agree with you that Q is by far the best team in the league on paper. Cornell needs to figure out a way to compete with them in recruiting older players.
The reason to be more bullish on Cornell is that almost everyone had a down year last season. Castagna in particular was massively unlucky. I also just don't think the rest of the league is very good aside from Q.
I agree Harvard is underrated. Too much talent and they didn't lose much.
Quote from: BearLover on October 02, 2025, 11:53:04 AMI agree Harvard is underrated. Too much talent and they didn't lose much.
Except that they almost always have too much talent and always seem to find a way to under utilize it.
Quote from: Jim Hyla on October 02, 2025, 01:20:55 PMQuote from: BearLover on October 02, 2025, 11:53:04 AMI agree Harvard is underrated. Too much talent and they didn't lose much.
Except that they almost always have too much talent and always seem to find a way to under utilize it.
That's the best part.
Gradually filling in (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Preseason.html). Keep em coming.
Quote from: Trotsky on October 02, 2025, 03:37:29 PMGradually filling in (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Preseason.html). Keep em coming.
TBRW on that page has Yale twice and no RPI.
Quote from: ursusminor on October 02, 2025, 03:58:16 PMQuote from: Trotsky on October 02, 2025, 03:37:29 PMGradually filling in (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2026/2026_Preseason.html). Keep em coming.
TBRW on that page has Yale twice and no RPI.
Sounds right...
Fixed. Thank you.
USCHO (https://www.uscho.com/2025/10/04/ecac-hockey-2025-25-mens-hockey-season-preview-according-to-commish-the-magic-of-our-league-is-that-anybody-on-any-given-night-can-win):
01. Quinnipiac
02. Clarkson
03. Union
04. Cornell
05. Harvard
06. Colgate
07. Dartmouth
07. Princeton
09. Brown
10. RPI
11. St. Lawrence
12. Yale
CHN (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2025/10/07_ECAC-Team-Preview-Capsules.php):
01. Quinnipiac
02. Cornell
03. Harvard
04. Dartmouth
05. Clarkson
05. Union
07. Colgate
08. Brown
09. Princeton
10. Yale
11. St. Lawrence
12. RPI
This required a little interpretation because their prediction as listed is not mathematically possible, but I think it's clear what they meant.
Everything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
Quote from: Trotsky on October 10, 2025, 04:49:08 AMEverything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
Good to see they think we're better than St. Thomas!
Quote from: Trotsky on October 10, 2025, 04:49:08 AMEverything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
This is the only ranking I've seen this season which puts Cornell ahead of Quinnipiac.
Quote from: dbilmes on October 10, 2025, 03:21:01 PMQuote from: Trotsky on October 10, 2025, 04:49:08 AMEverything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
This is the only ranking I've seen this season which puts Cornell ahead of Quinnipiac.
best off to ignore them - not a credible source whatsoever.
Quote from: adamw on October 14, 2025, 10:01:51 PMQuote from: dbilmes on October 10, 2025, 03:21:01 PMQuote from: Trotsky on October 10, 2025, 04:49:08 AMEverything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
This is the only ranking I've seen this season which puts Cornell ahead of Quinnipiac.
best off to ignore them - not a credible source whatsoever.
Is ECH the outfit that was created to "lift the visibility of college hockey as a recruiting destination for athletes," or something, and IIRC it had a "here's 50k be our figurehead" like Ron Francis or somebody?
I'm dredging my admittedly poor memory and that's what I come up with.
Their website leads with their merch store which seems to signal they are the Quinnipiac of college hockey reportage.
Quote from: Trotsky on October 21, 2025, 01:40:04 PMQuote from: adamw on October 14, 2025, 10:01:51 PMQuote from: dbilmes on October 10, 2025, 03:21:01 PMQuote from: Trotsky on October 10, 2025, 04:49:08 AMEverything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
This is the only ranking I've seen this season which puts Cornell ahead of Quinnipiac.
best off to ignore them - not a credible source whatsoever.
Is ECH the outfit that was created to "lift the visibility of college hockey as a recruiting destination for athletes," or something, and IIRC it had a "here's 50k be our figurehead" like Ron Francis or somebody?
I'm dredging my admittedly poor memory and that's what I come up with.
Their website leads with their merch store which seems to signal they are the Quinnipiac of college hockey reportage.
Were you thinking of College Hockey Inc.?
Quote from: Jim Hyla on October 23, 2025, 01:32:43 PMQuote from: Trotsky on October 21, 2025, 01:40:04 PMQuote from: adamw on October 14, 2025, 10:01:51 PMQuote from: dbilmes on October 10, 2025, 03:21:01 PMQuote from: Trotsky on October 10, 2025, 04:49:08 AMEverything College Hockey (https://www.echlocker.com/blog/ech-preseason-top-20-rankings) (ECH) NCAA Top 20 Prediction:
01. W. Michigan
02. Penn State
03. Michigan State
04. BU
05. BC
06. Maine
07. Denver
08. Connecticut
09. Michigan
10. Minnesota
11. Ohio State
12. Masachusetts
13. North Dakota
14. Arizona State
15. Providence
16. Cornell
17. Quinnipiac
18. Wisconsin
19. Northeastern
20. St. Thomas
This is the only ranking I've seen this season which puts Cornell ahead of Quinnipiac.
best off to ignore them - not a credible source whatsoever.
Is ECH the outfit that was created to "lift the visibility of college hockey as a recruiting destination for athletes," or something, and IIRC it had a "here's 50k be our figurehead" like Ron Francis or somebody?
I'm dredging my admittedly poor memory and that's what I come up with.
Their website leads with their merch store which seems to signal they are the Quinnipiac of college hockey reportage.
Were you thinking of College Hockey Inc.?
Yeah, that. That right there.