TBRW (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2025/2025_Predictions.html)
As always the way this works is, I put this out, you find the math errors, I fix it. Thank you.
1. Quinnipiac
2. [color=#d61616]Cornell[/color]
3. Colgate
4. Dartmouth
5. Clarkson
6. Harvard
7. Union
8. Yale
9. St. Lawrence
10. Princeton
11. RPI
12. Brown
In the comparison of the coaches' poll and TBRW, are the higher numbers better?
Quote from: dbilmesIn the comparison of the coaches' poll and TBRW, are the higher numbers better?
Lower is better, hence the stars.
I'll throw a guess out there
1. Quinnipiac
2. Cornell
3. Harvard
4. Colgate
5. Clarkson
6. Princeton
7. Dartmouth
8. Yale
9. Union
10. Saint lawrence
11. Brown
12. RPI
Quote from: TrotskyTBRW (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2025/2025_Predictions.html)
As always the way this works is, I put this out, you find the math errors, I fix it. Thank you.
1. Quinnipiac
2. [color=#d61616]Cornell[/color]
3. Colgate
4. Dartmouth
5. Clarkson
6. Harvard
7. Union
8. Yale
9. St. Lawrence
10. Princeton
11. RPI
12. Brown
I'm confused by this part:
"Secondly, we want to make the same two estimates for the incoming players: their quality and quantity.
Avg10 above, carried down.
Fut, the relative estimate of incoming strength, equals Avg10 / 2."
You say that the "future" metric considers "quantity" of incoming players, but as far as I can tell, you're just dividing average past program success by 2, regardless of whether the incoming class has 3 players or 15 players. Seems to me the "future" metric is just another measurement of the past?
RPI grad Stephen Zenack's model's prediction and his own with lengthy discussion. Also first, second, and third team, rookie team, etc.
https://thefieldhouse.substack.com/p/ecac-preview-2024-25
His model picks Cornell #2, and he picks Cornell #1. The latter must be why he asked me to post this here. :)
I won't list who from Cornell is listed for the various honors. They are at the end.
Quote from: ursusminorRPI grad Stephen Sezenack's model's prediction and his own with lengthy discussion. Also first, second, and third team, rookie team, etc.
https://thefieldhouse.substack.com/p/ecac-preview-2024-25
His model picks Cornell #2, and he picks Cornell #1. The latter must be why he asked me to post this here. :)
I won't list who from Cornell is listed for the various honors. They are at the end.
I am only one and a half teams into this, but I can already confidently say that this is the best and most in-depth college hockey season preview I have ever read. When you build a thoughtful model AND do your homework (and are aware of the limitations of your model), this is what you get.
Anyway, I was about to throw out my prediction. I see now that the above-mentioned blog came to similar conclusions. The below gaps are meant to indicate a drop-off between 2/3 and 7/8.
1. Cornell
2. Quinnipiac
3. Harvard
4. Dartmouth
5. Union
6. Colgate
7. Clarkson
8. Princeton
9. RPI
10. Brown
11. St. Lawrence
12. Yale
Quote from: BearLoverQuote from: ursusminorRPI grad Stephen Sezenack's model's prediction and his own with lengthy discussion. Also first, second, and third team, rookie team, etc.
https://thefieldhouse.substack.com/p/ecac-preview-2024-25
His model picks Cornell #2, and he picks Cornell #1. The latter must be why he asked me to post this here. :)
I won't list who from Cornell is listed for the various honors. They are at the end.
I am only one and a half teams into this, but I can already confidently say that this is the best and most in-depth college hockey season preview I have ever read. When you build a thoughtful model AND do your homework (and are aware of the limitations of your model), this is what you get.
Exactly what I thought when I saw "the model says Q but I say Cornell."
Quote from: BearLoverAnyway, I was about to throw out my prediction. I see now that the above-mentioned blog came to similar conclusions. The below gaps are meant to indicate a drop-off between 2/3 and 7/8.
1. Cornell
2. Quinnipiac
3. Harvard
4. Dartmouth
5. Union
6. Colgate
7. Clarkson
8. Princeton
9. RPI
10. Brown
11. St. Lawrence
12. Yale
Yeah I think those groupings are nigh-on inarguable. I could maybe see Union drop or Princeton rise.
CHN with some very interesting notes and predictions. https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2024/10/07_ECAC-Team-Preview-Capsules.php
At the risk of sounding stupid, he refers to the sacred seven. What is this?
Quote from: arugulaAt the risk of sounding stupid, he refers to the sacred seven. What is this?
6 defensemen and goalie?
Quote from: Al DeFlorioQuote from: arugulaAt the risk of sounding stupid, he refers to the sacred seven. What is this?
6 defensemen and goalie?
That's how I took it.
BU transfer Jeremy Wilmer had 2 of Quinnipaic's 3 goals last night vs Penn State. It's funny that (at least from what I can remember) Wilmer was left off all of the preseason predictions for ECAC first team/second team. I guess people forgot about him because he was transferring from another conference. But a point-per-game player at BU should easily slot in as one of the best players in the ECAC. Anyway, another example of Quinnipiac immediately reloading with transfers.