TL;DR version first:
Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best
seed the team can get with no help):
Quinnipiac 1 (1)
Harvard 2-3 (2)
Cornell 2-3 (3)
Colgate 4-6 (4)
St. Lawrence 4-5 (5)
Clarkson 5-8 (6)
Princeton 6-9 (7)
Rennselaer 6-11 (7)
Union 6-11 (8)
Brown 8-12 (11)
Yale 8-12 (11)
Dartmouth 10-12 (12)
And now the long-form version:
Once again, it's the ECAC Playoff Permutations! Quinnipiac has made things
a little easier by locking up the top slot, and Harvard and Cornell will
finish second and third in some order. Then, as they say on Gilligan's
Island, "and the rest."
Going into the final week of league play, here's a breakdown of where each
team in the ECAC could finish. For each ECAC team, I've listed the
following:
THIS WEEK: The team's games this week, its last two of the season.
ON THEIR OWN: The highest the team could finish with no help from the
competition. Generally, this involves a sweep in regulation.
BEST CASE: The highest the team could finish if everything goes right.
WORST CASE: The lowest the team could finish if everything goes wrong.
This generally involves getting swept while teams nearby in the
standings win.
TIEBREAKERS: How the team would fare if they finished the season tied with
some other team which is currently close (i.e. within 6 points) in the
standings. Note that there may be cases in which Team A "could win or
lose" the tiebreaker against Team B, depending on whether there are
more than just those two teams tied. For instance, Clarkson wins the
head-to-head points tiebreaker against Colgate 4-2; however, in a
three-way tie involving these two and St. Lawrence, Clarkson would
actually be seeded lower than Colgate. If a listed tiebreaker result
depends on more than just those two teams being tied, it is marked with
an asterisk:
Clarkson could win or lose* against Colgate
For two or more teams tied in the standings, the ECAC tiebreakers are:
1. Comparison of points in head-to-head games (non-conference meetings,
such as in tournaments, do not count).
2. League wins in regulation and overtime (shootout results do not apply).
3. Comparison of points against top four teams.
4. Comparison of points against top eight teams.
5. Goal differential head-to-head.
6. Goal differential against top four teams.
7. Goal differential against top eight teams.
Note that if the tie is among three or more teams, the tiebreaking steps are
used in order until a team, or multiple teams, is/are separated from the
"pack". Once that happens, the process starts all over to break the
remaining ties. For example, when the above steps are applied to a four-way
tie, once one team is separated out leaving a three-way tie, the procedure
goes back to the first step with the three remaining tied teams.
Without further ado, here's how the final week looks:
Harvard:
THIS WEEK: At St. Lawrence, at Clarkson.
ON THEIR OWN: Clinches second with four points on the weekend.
BEST CASE: Second.
WORST CASE: Finishes third if they lose twice (in regulation) and
Cornell picks up at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Cornell.
Cornell:
THIS WEEK: At Brown, at Yale.
ON THEIR OWN: Has wrapped up third and can do no better without help.
BEST CASE: Climbs to second with a regulation sweep if Harvard gets no
more than three points.
WORST CASE: Third.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Harvard.
Colgate:
THIS WEEK: At Yale, at Brown.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets fourth by winning both games in regulation.
BEST CASE: Fourth.
WORST CASE: Drops to sixth if they lose twice in regulation, Clarkson
gets a regulation sweep, and St. Lawrence gets at least one point.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats St. Lawrence; could win* or lose against Clarkson.
St. Lawrence:
THIS WEEK: Harvard, Dartmouth.
ON THEIR OWN: Has clinched fifth and can do no better without help.
BEST CASE: Would finish fourth with a regulation sweep if Colgate does
not get two wins in regulation.
WORST CASE: Fifth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Clarkson; loses to Colgate.
Clarkson:
THIS WEEK: Dartmouth, Harvard.
ON THEIR OWN: Takes sixth with two wins (not shootout wins).
BEST CASE: Clinches fifth with a regulation sweep if Colgate gets no
points.
WORST CASE: Slides to eighth if they get swept in regulation and
either Rensselaer and Union both get two regulation wins, or Princeton
defeats one of them and the other one sweeps in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to St. Lawrence; could win or
lose against Princeton; could win or lose* against Colgate; could win*
or lose against Union.
Princeton:
THIS WEEK: At Rensselaer, at Union.
ON THEIR OWN: Four points would guarantee seventh place.
BEST CASE: Rises to sixth with a pair of regulation wins if Clarkson
gets no more than three points.
WORST CASE: Would finish ninth if they lose twice in regulation.
TIEBREAKERS: Could win or lose against Clarkson, Rensselaer, and
Union.
Rensselaer:
THIS WEEK: Princeton, Quinnipiac.
ON THEIR OWN: Wraps up seventh with a regulation sweep.
BEST CASE: Finishes sixth with two regulation wins if Clarkson loses
twice in regulation.
WORST CASE: Drops to eleventh if they lose twice in regulation, Union
gets at least one point, Brown gets at least four points, and Yale gets
at least five.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; loses to Clarkson and Brown; could win or
lose against Princeton and Union.
Union:
THIS WEEK: Quinnipiac, Princeton.
ON THEIR OWN: Gets eighth with a pair of wins in regulation.
BEST CASE: Climbs to sixth with a regulation sweep if Clarkson loses
a pair in regulation and Rensselaer does not beat Princeton in
regulation.
WORST CASE: Would fall to eleventh with two regulation losses if Brown
gets at least four points and Yale gets at least five.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Yale; could win or lose against Princeton,
Rensselaer, and Brown; could win or lose* against Clarkson.
Brown:
THIS WEEK: Cornell, Colgate.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than eleventh without help.
BEST CASE: Wraps up eighth with a pair of wins in regulation if
Rensselaer gets no more than two points, Union gets no more than one,
and either Yale does not sweep in regulation or St. Lawrence does not
finish fourth.
WORST CASE: Finishes twelfth if they lose twice in regulation, Yale
gets at least one point, and Dartmouth gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Rensselaer; loses to Dartmouth; could win or lose
against Union and Yale.
Yale:
THIS WEEK: Colgate, Cornell.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than eleventh without help.
BEST CASE: Takes eighth with two regulation wins if Rensselaer and
Union get no more than one point each and either Brown does not win two
regulation games or St. Lawrence finishes fourth.
WORST CASE: Ends up twelfth with two regulation losses if Dartmouth
gets at least three points.
TIEBREAKERS: Loses to Rensselaer, Union, and Dartmouth; could win or
lose against Brown.
Dartmouth:
THIS WEEK: At Clarkson, at St. Lawrence.
ON THEIR OWN: Can do no better than twelfth without help.
BEST CASE: Gets tenth with a regulation sweep if Brown and Yale get no
more than three points each.
WORST CASE: Twelfth.
TIEBREAKERS: Beats Brown and Yale.
Colgate has a higher ceiling and lower floor than SLU?
It's a little odd, but it's because Colgate loses the tiebreaker with Clarkson and St. Lawrence wins it; thus, if they finish tied with the Knights, the Saints would win the tiebreaker and be seeded fifth, while Colgate in the same situation would be sixth. (A three-way tie would put Colgate fourth, St. Lawrence fifth, and Clarkson sixth)
Oops, double post.
How can both Brown and Yale do no better than 11th without help? Shouldn't one be able to get 10th without help?
Quote from: ursusminorHow can both Brown and Yale do no better than 11th without help? Shouldn't one be able to get 10th without help?
It's because of the top 4 tiebreaker. If Brown and Yale both get two regulation wins, they'll still be tied in the standings. They split head-to-head and would have the same number of league wins, so it goes to record against the top 4 in the league, which would be Quinnipiac, Harvard, Cornell, and either Colgate or St. Lawrence. If it's Colgate, Brown wins the tiebreaker; if it's St. Lawrence, Yale does.
Quote from: Give My RegardsQuote from: ursusminorHow can both Brown and Yale do no better than 11th without help? Shouldn't one be able to get 10th without help?
It's because of the top 4 tiebreaker. If Brown and Yale both get two regulation wins, they'll still be tied in the standings. They split head-to-head and would have the same number of league wins, so it goes to record against the top 4 in the league, which would be Quinnipiac, Harvard, Cornell, and either Colgate or St. Lawrence. If it's Colgate, Brown wins the tiebreaker; if it's St. Lawrence, Yale does.
Thanks.
Quote from: Give My Regards
Possible ECAC tournament seedings (the number in parentheses is the best seed the team can get with no help):
Quinnipiac 1 (1)
Harvard 2-3 (2)
Cornell 2-3 (3)
Colgate 4-6 (4)
St. Lawrence 4-5 (5)
Clarkson 5-8 (6)
Princeton 6-9 (7)
Rennselaer 6-11 (7)
Union 6-11 (8)
Brown 8-12 (11)
Yale 8-12 (11)
Dartmouth 10-12 (12)
I like that the standings and permutations of matchups suggest we'll have a beatable QF opponent (even if it's Clarkson), that we'll likely make it to Lake Placid, that somebody else will deal with Quinnipiac Friday in Lake Placid, that we have a 4 in 10 chance of making the ECAC finals (we just have to believe Harvard is beatable), and we are predicted to have a 90% chance of making the NCAAs. The only thing better is the unlikely odds somebody knocks out Harvard or Q in the quarterfinals and then we wouldn't see the survivor (Q and H shouldn't both lose) until the title game.
We clinched 3rd because SLU shat themselves. We stay there unless (1) we beat Yale in regulation and (2) Harvard loses at Clarkson in regulation, in which case we finish 2nd.
Quote from: TrotskyWe clinched 3rd because SLU shat themselves. We stay there unless (1) we beat Yale in regulation and (2) Harvard loses at Clarkson in regulation, in which case we finish 2nd.
One advantage of finishing second is, if for some reason, Quinnipiac loses in the quarters, a Cornell-Harvard likely matchup is Saturday night. But first, need to clear the quarterfinals hurdle. As a 2-3 matchup, we'd be in the 7:30 not 4:00 Friday game, more time to get to LP if you try to get in a half day of work Friday.
Q aint losing until Placid. They aren't going to lose a best-of-three against at best the 8.
I am very hopeful we join Q and Harvard who I think are a lock to get to Placid. The 4-slot is going to be a shitshow; could be anybody.
As of right now the 6 is Clarkson. That is suboptimal.
Quote from: TrotskyI am very hopeful we join Q and Harvard who I think are a lock to get to Placid. The 4-slot is going to be a shitshow; could be anybody.
Disagree. If any team is ripe for a quarters upset, it's Harvard. I hope their habit of letting games slide to 3x3 overtime gets them booted, because their "special purpose" is gone in the playoffs.
Much greater likelihood of this, of course, if they find a way to lose to Clarkson tomorrow and we hold off the snowballing Bulldog juggernaut. Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.
Quote from: Scersk '97Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.
Or us.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: Scersk '97Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.
Or us.
In the quarters. In the quarters!
Quote from: Scersk '97Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: Scersk '97Any of SLU, Clarkson, or Colgate would give Harvard fits.
Or us.
In the quarters. In the quarters!
Actually, now that I understand your drift, my fervent hope is to avoid Colgate. My greatest fear is always a goalie standing on his head.
Quote from: TrotskyQ aint losing until Placid. They aren't going to lose a best-of-three against at best the 8.
I am very hopeful we join Q and Harvard who I think are a lock to get to Placid. The 4-slot is going to be a shitshow; could be anybody.
As of right now the 6 is Clarkson. That is suboptimal.
I keep saying Dartmouth is better than their record (how could they be worse). Would be hilarious if they won their first round match-up and took out Q.
Maybe Shane can do that. He looked better tonight han he has in a while on those big second period saves.
Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: TrotskyQ aint losing until Placid. They aren't going to lose a best-of-three against at best the 8.
I am very hopeful we join Q and Harvard who I think are a lock to get to Placid. The 4-slot is going to be a shitshow; could be anybody.
As of right now the 6 is Clarkson. That is suboptimal.
I keep saying Dartmouth is better than their record (how could they be worse). Would be hilarious if they won their first round match-up and took out Q.
1992
First Round
#10 RPI 5 #7 Vermont 1
#9 Princeton 5 #8 Colgate 4 (2 ot)
Quarterfinals
#10 RPI 4 #1 Harvard 3 (ot)
#2 St. Lawrence 6 #9 Princeton 3
#3 Clarkson 8 #6 Brown 3
#5 Cornell 5 #4 Yale 1
Semifinals
Cornell 4, Clarkson 3 (2 ot)
St. Lawrence 6, RPI 5 (2 ot)
Championship
St. Lawrence 4, Cornell 2
Quote from: TrotskyMaybe Shane can do that. He looked better tonight han he has in a while on those big second period saves.
I'll be diplomatic and say that I think our best chances always lie in playing a strong possession game, netting some early goals, and then blocking a lot of shots.
Is the ECAC tournament a bracket or is it reseeded at the end of each round?
Quote from: chimpfoodIs the ECAC tournament a bracket or is it reseeded at the end of each round?
Re-seeded.
Quote from: DafatoneI keep saying Dartmouth is better than their record (how could they be worse). Would be hilarious if they won their first round match-up and took out Q.
Any early upset of a top-five (top ten?) team messes up the wildcard NCAA slots available for a, say, Cornell or other team not winning the the league tournament.
Que sera, sera (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADIa7IGbfR4).
MSU beating ND in a sweep would be a help hard to know if that would move MSU up enough to be a danger. ND not winning either game didnt do us any favors to keep ND under .500
I doubt Lindenwood is gonna help us much vs Alaska
NDak beating Omaha might be of some help?
How in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
just that one win over denver makes a big difference moves them up 7 spots..
Quote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
They have played 11 home games and 21 road games. Which makes sense because who wants to go there. But as I've ranted about, road wins are 1.5x better than home wins and road losses are 66% as bad as home losses.
If you play lots of road games and have a generally good season, you're in great shape.
Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
They have played 11 home games and 21 road games. Which makes sense because who wants to go there. But as I've ranted about, road wins are 1.5x better than home wins and road losses are 66% as bad as home losses.
If you play lots of road games and have a generally good season, you're in great shape.
So basically they found a loophole. Need to tweak that formula this off-season.
Quote from: CU2007Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
They have played 11 home games and 21 road games. Which makes sense because who wants to go there. But as I've ranted about, road wins are 1.5x better than home wins and road losses are 66% as bad as home losses.
If you play lots of road games and have a generally good season, you're in great shape.
So basically they found a loophole. Need to tweak that formula this off-season.
For what it's worth, they appear to have a slightly tougher schedule than we do and a slightly better record. Though I don't know if strength of schedule factors in home/away.
Quote from: CU2007Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
They have played 11 home games and 21 road games. Which makes sense because who wants to go there. But as I've ranted about, road wins are 1.5x better than home wins and road losses are 66% as bad as home losses.
If you play lots of road games and have a generally good season, you're in great shape.
So basically they found a loophole. Need to tweak that formula this off-season.
the loophole is "being in exile"
Quote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
Where do you see splitting pairs with those teams?
Alaska swept all 4 meetings with Arizona State. And have swept every other lesser opponent.
Their splits are against Omaha, Denver and Notre Dame. So there you go
Quote from: adamwQuote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
Where do you see splitting pairs with those teams?
Alaska swept all 4 meetings with Arizona State. And have swept every other lesser opponent.
Their splits are against Omaha, Denver and Notre Dame. So there you go
I must have rad it wrong, I thought I saw them splitting all their LIU and UAA games.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: adamwQuote from: TrotskyHow in the did Alaska get so high? They've been splitting pairs against such luminaries as LIU and ASU all season.
Did they find an exploit in the algorithm?
Where do you see splitting pairs with those teams?
Alaska swept all 4 meetings with Arizona State. And have swept every other lesser opponent.
Their splits are against Omaha, Denver and Notre Dame. So there you go
I must have rad it wrong, I thought I saw them splitting all their LIU and UAA games.
i see a win and a tie against AIC, a win and an OT loss on the road v. St. Thomas and a 3-1 record vs LIU. Also, 6-0 vs UAA but two wins were in OT. https://www.uscho.com/scoreboard/alaska/mens-hockey/2022-2023/