With the BU win we move from 25 to 18. Holy shit.
Quote from: TrotskyWith the BU win we move from 25 to 18. Holy shit.
i guess it pays to win in 60
Cornell is functionally 5-1-3 and has a PWR weighted win% of 71% (this win% purports to adjust for home/road effects). Its nine opponents (counting Alaska twice) have a weighted win% of 29%. Outside of Alaska and BU, all of Cornell's opponents did not play hockey last year. Taken together, the above makes it feel like Cornell's position in the PWR, at #22, is a lot more justified than their position in the polls, at #10.
Most promising so far has been Cornell's ability to skate with the talent of Harvard and BU. Cornell was not obviously out-skilled in either of these matchups. But Cornell still has not played a good team that played hockey last season, so this Friday versus Clarkson will be by far their biggest test of the season.
Donaldson, Regush, and Leahy have not exactly torn it up at their new schools. Losing Galajda, though, feels like the difference between a team favored to make the NCAAs and a team favored to miss them. That is both a testament to Galajda (.943 sv% at Notre Dame) and the fact that goaltending is clearly the shakiest part of Cornell's roster.
I think a realistic goal is a top-4 ECAC seed. Nice job by the coaching staff to weather the storm of the lost season and resulting player defections. There's no reason why Cornell cannot be nationally competitive again in a couple of seasons. To the extent any of the players on the team have an extra year of eligibility (i.e., they took leaves of absences from their classes last year), that would help a lot.
Quote from: BearLoverCornell is functionally 5-1-3 and has a PWR weighted win% of 71% (this win% purports to adjust for home/road effects). Its nine opponents (counting Alaska twice) have a weighted win% of 29%. Outside of Alaska and BU, all of Cornell's opponents did not play hockey last year. Taken together, the above makes it feel like Cornell's position in the PWR, at #22, is a lot more justified than their position in the polls, at #10.
Most promising so far has been Cornell's ability to skate with the talent of Harvard and BU. Cornell was not obviously out-skilled in either of these matchups. But Cornell still has not played a good team that played hockey last season, so this Friday versus Clarkson will be by far their biggest test of the season.
Donaldson, Regush, and Leahy have not exactly torn it up at their new schools. Losing Galajda, though, feels like the difference between a team favored to make the NCAAs and a team favored to miss them. That is both a testament to Galajda (.943 sv% at Notre Dame) and the fact that goaltending is clearly the shakiest part of Cornell's roster.
I think a realistic goal is a top-4 ECAC seed. Nice job by the coaching staff to weather the storm of the lost season and resulting player defections. There's no reason why Cornell cannot be nationally competitive again in a couple of seasons. To the extent any of the players on the team have an extra year of eligibility (i.e., they took leaves of absences from their classes last year), that would help a lot.
i agree with all of this, though Leahy with 4 points in 6 games and a +5 on a 1-4-1 Vermont team seems pretty good tbh.
At this point, I would be extremely disappointed to finish behind any team not named Q (gag), Clarkson, or Harvard. None of the other teams look poised to grab that last first-round bye.
That said - long ways to go.
no idea on how Clarkson is
losing to STL/Union/RPI
splitting with Alaska/MTech
beating Wisc
ties with Quin/Canisius/Wisc
Still probably on the road the next test we need to pass..
Not as worried about the Goalies as the sloppy D in our own end on plays we have under control. The goalies seem to making save 1 pretty well so far.
Quote from: upprdeckNot as worried about the Goalies as the sloppy D in our own end on plays we have under control. The goalies seem to making save 1 pretty well so far.
I'm hopeful the defensive hijinks are a young team learning to play together. OTOH all four lines have just stepped into a rhythm together which is amazing and is either (1) blind luck, (2) incredible coaching, or (3) a demonstration that we have played crappy teams so far which will be summarily destroyed by North Dakota and Q.
Quote from: upprdeckno idea on how Clarkson is
losing to STL/Union/RPI
splitting with Alaska/MTech
beating Wisc
ties with Quin/Canisius/Wisc
Still probably on the road the next test we need to pass..
Not as worried about the Goalies as the sloppy D in our own end on plays we have under control. The goalies seem to making save 1 pretty well so far.
I wouldn't include Wisconsin on any list of impressive accomplishments. They are flat out terrible.
Quote from: adamwQuote from: upprdeckno idea on how Clarkson is
losing to STL/Union/RPI
splitting with Alaska/MTech
beating Wisc
ties with Quin/Canisius/Wisc
Still probably on the road the next test we need to pass..
Not as worried about the Goalies as the sloppy D in our own end on plays we have under control. The goalies seem to making save 1 pretty well so far.
I wouldn't include Wisconsin on any list of impressive accomplishments. They are flat out terrible.
BU terrible or worse?
With tonight's win we are at 17. Clarkson is 13.
Tomorrow night is... important.
Quote from: TrotskyWith tonight's win we are at 17. Clarkson is 13.
Tomorrow night is... important.
When I looked at the PWR immediately after the game, we were at 18 and Bemidji was at 17. Something happened soon thereafter, and we moved up to 17.
However, Bemidji is still playing and is up 4-0. They're going to move back past us when their game ends.
That said, tomorrow is yuge.
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: TrotskyWith tonight's win we are at 17. Clarkson is 13.
Tomorrow night is... important.
When I looked at the PWR immediately after the game, we were at 18 and Bemidji was at 17. Something happened soon thereafter, and we moved up to 17.
However, Bemidji is still playing and is up 4-0. They're going to move back past us when their game ends.
That said, tomorrow is yuge.
In a weird way, games against top teams aren't that important for the pairwise. Like, your RPI is based on your record and your strength of schedule (and your strength of schedule's schedule). These factors are separate. Beating a good team and losing to a bad one is the same, roughly, as flipping those results.
Still a huge game for the conference and as a measuring stick.
Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: TrotskyWith tonight's win we are at 17. Clarkson is 13.
Tomorrow night is... important.
When I looked at the PWR immediately after the game, we were at 18 and Bemidji was at 17. Something happened soon thereafter, and we moved up to 17.
However, Bemidji is still playing and is up 4-0. They're going to move back past us when their game ends.
That said, tomorrow is yuge.
In a weird way, games against top teams aren't that important for the pairwise. Like, your RPI is based on your record and your strength of schedule (and your strength of schedule's schedule). These factors are separate. Beating a good team and losing to a bad one is the same, roughly, as flipping those results.
Still a huge game for the conference and as a measuring stick.
Also remember that the record of a conference in games against each other is 0.500. So all that matters is your record, the record of your out of conference opponents, and your conference's record against other conferences. Everything else within the conference is a wash.
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: TrotskyWith tonight's win we are at 17. Clarkson is 13.
Tomorrow night is... important.
When I looked at the PWR immediately after the game, we were at 18 and Bemidji was at 17. Something happened soon thereafter, and we moved up to 17.
However, Bemidji is still playing and is up 4-0. They're going to move back past us when their game ends.
That said, tomorrow is yuge.
In a weird way, games against top teams aren't that important for the pairwise. Like, your RPI is based on your record and your strength of schedule (and your strength of schedule's schedule). These factors are separate. Beating a good team and losing to a bad one is the same, roughly, as flipping those results.
Still a huge game for the conference and as a measuring stick.
Also remember that the record of a conference in games against each other is 0.500. So all that matters is your record, the record of your out of conference opponents, and your conference's record against other conferences. Everything else within the conference is a wash.
Good point. Thrown slightly off kilter by the playoffs, where we might play certain teams more than others, and the in-conference success of those teams becomes a factor.
Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: DafatoneQuote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: TrotskyWith tonight's win we are at 17. Clarkson is 13.
Tomorrow night is... important.
When I looked at the PWR immediately after the game, we were at 18 and Bemidji was at 17. Something happened soon thereafter, and we moved up to 17.
However, Bemidji is still playing and is up 4-0. They're going to move back past us when their game ends.
That said, tomorrow is yuge.
In a weird way, games against top teams aren't that important for the pairwise. Like, your RPI is based on your record and your strength of schedule (and your strength of schedule's schedule). These factors are separate. Beating a good team and losing to a bad one is the same, roughly, as flipping those results.
Still a huge game for the conference and as a measuring stick.
Also remember that the record of a conference in games against each other is 0.500. So all that matters is your record, the record of your out of conference opponents, and your conference's record against other conferences. Everything else within the conference is a wash.
Good point. Thrown slightly off kilter by the playoffs, where we might play certain teams more than others, and the in-conference success of those teams becomes a factor.
Agreed. I should have clarified "regular season" record of a conference.
Nice visualization of PWR by Conference:
(https://i.redd.it/8ybkaqdx8oa81.png)
Edit: without St. Lawrence.
glad we didn't play LIU that last column is killing us
That's a surprisingly even spread across conferences (not counting AHA because who does?).
Quote from: TrotskyEdit: without St. Lawrence.
The top of SLU's logo shows just above Colgate's which is where it should be. They made all of the logos have the same width, so if one team with a logo that has more vertical extent than horizontal is one place above one whose logo has more vertical extent than horizontal, it can be hidden.
Thanks!
I was curious, so I ran it on CHN pairwise calculator - if we had split with ASU, we would be a very close second in the PWR. Same thing if we had held on to beat Clarkson (although we wouldn't be as close to first).
This system needs to be reworked if one game can make that much of a difference. I know, I know, it is still relatively early in the season, things will change, etc...
Quote from: Todd RI was curious, so I ran it on CHN pairwise calculator - if we had split with ASU, we would be a very close second in the PWR. Same thing if we had held on to beat Clarkson (although we wouldn't be as close to first).
This system needs to be reworked if one game can make that much of a difference. I know, I know, it is still relatively early in the season, things will change, etc...
Holy crap! I just checked as well to confirm. That is enormously screwy.
KRACH for the win, as always.
Using the current ratings, we're second in the league behind Quinnipiac, are very likely to beat (defined as having a rating more than twice the opponent's rating) any team not named QU, Harvard, or Clarkson, and have the "potential" (defined as where we would sit at twice our rating, i.e., if things go well the rest of the season) to be a top-8 team nationally. That seems about right.
i see the same results if we had not lost the Havard game as well..
Fix the dumbest of "wins"—the Brown game—and we're #8.
PWR is practically just RPI. RPI is a function of win%, opponent's win%, and opponent's opponent's win%. With some adjustments for home and away games, RPI doesn't care who you beat, just your record.
So the difference between flipping one game or another is minimal.
Frankly, the best thing a team can do is play more road games than home games. The home/away adjustment is way too much, in my opinion. Home losses and road wins are multiplied by 1.2, home wins and road losses by 0.8. That's a 50% difference (or 33%, I guess, depending on perspective).
so win this weekend and really win out against all the teams we should. also likely why PWR takes a jump in all the discussion as all the games we are discussing are road games.
now beat Clark/Har at home and take care of business against the bad teams.. cant stub your toe 2-3 times against them down the stretch.
Quote from: DafatonePWR is practically just RPI. RPI is a function of win%, opponent's win%, and opponent's opponent's win%. With some adjustments for home and away games, RPI doesn't care who you beat, just your record.
So the difference between flipping one game or another is minimal.
Frankly, the best thing a team can do is play more road games than home games. The home/away adjustment is way too much, in my opinion. Home losses and road wins are multiplied by 1.2, home wins and road losses by 0.8. That's a 50% difference (or 33%, I guess, depending on perspective).
The home/away adjustment is certainly too much to fix the difference in difficulty of winning away vs. winning at home, but I have read that it was designed to encourage certain schools to play more road games. Conceivably this is apocryphal.
if you go win road games against better teams it helps your PWR? isnt that really what they want to see to grow the sport..
Cornell went to ASU and UND and split and the PWR went up, we could have played 4 home games against bad teams, but we wouldnt have gained anything as a team or the sport..
i guess the question would be if they had a tool to swap out games.. switch it so we play RIT or someone at home and win and see what the PWR would have done.
Quote from: upprdeckif you go win road games against better teams it helps your PWR? isnt that really what they want to see to grow the sport..
Cornell went to ASU and UND and split and the PWR went up, we could have played 4 home games against bad teams, but we wouldnt have gained anything as a team or the sport..
i guess the question would be if they had a tool to swap out games.. switch it so we play RIT or someone at home and win and see what the PWR would have done.
I'd rather they just mandate something like "must play a certain number or percentage of road games for postseason eligibility." Though that would be a mess in COVID times.
Now 14th after last night, thus putting us exactly back to our position before ASU.
Quote from: TrotskyNow 14th after last night, thus putting us exactly back to our position before ASU.
I think Cornell was ~18 before ASU, ~27 after ASU, and ~14 after ND. We haven't moved in the last week.
Quote from: BearLoverQuote from: TrotskyNow 14th after last night, thus putting us exactly back to our position before ASU.
I think Cornell was ~18 before ASU, ~27 after ASU, and ~14 after ND. We haven't moved in the last week.
OK, thanks. That makes more sense.
We inch up to 13 PWR.
If you run the pairwise probability matrix on CHN for the rest of the season they move us to 3 and QUin down to 15.. must be something about Quin schedule they dont like.
Quote from: upprdeckIf you run the pairwise probability matrix on CHN for the rest of the season they move us to 3 and QUin down to 15.. must be something about Quin schedule they dont like.
Wonder if a weak ecac drags down rpi for Q by season end
Quote from: upprdeckIf you run the pairwise probability matrix on CHN for the rest of the season they move us to 3 and QUin down to 15.. must be something about Quin schedule they dont like.
Haven't even begun to run the matrix yet for this season - that's probably 2 years old ... but reminds me I need to hide the link.
BTW - discovered a glitch in our Pairwise Customizer that wasn't properly accounting for OTs (grrrr) ... any previous tries through the Customizer by anyone, please redo it. I think I saw a reference here somewhere that Cornell would move up into top 5 had it defeated Clarkson. However, it only moves them to 10 if you try it now.