ELynah Forum

Am I the only one worried that Cornell or the ECAC could make the decision to play games without fans present in an attempt to prevent the spread of the Corona virus?

The decision was just made to not have spectators at the NCAA Division III basketball tournament at Johns Hopkins:

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/06/johns-hopkins-ncaa-basketball-tournament-canceled-coronavirus/
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/coronavirus-outbreak-ncaa-division-iii-tournament-without-fans

And last night I received an email message from Cornell Vice President Ryan Lombardi that said:

"Large On- and Off-Campus Events

Effective Monday, March 9, we are postponing or canceling large (more than 100 people), non-essential events or work-related gatherings scheduled through April 15. This includes events sponsored by the university, colleges, schools, departments or units, as well as student-sponsored events, where a significant number of participants are expected to travel to or from the region for the event. This policy does not include on-campus events where participation is primarily by Cornell audiences."

I'm guessing athletic events are not yet included in the above, since nothing is said about them explicitly, but even so, I am worried.

Thoughts?

I'm not "worried."  If it happens, it sucks yeah but it happens.

There's really no way to predict the likelihood at the moment.  It's like everything else (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SiB8GVMNJkE): balance the revenue of attendance against the expected value of the lawsuits if something happens.  If you're above the crossing point you let steerage in.

Quote from: andyw2100Am I the only one worried that Cornell or the ECAC could make the decision to play games without fans present in an attempt to prevent the spread of the Corona virus?

The decision was just made to not have spectators at the NCAA Division III basketball tournament at Johns Hopkins:

https://baltimore.cbslocal.com/2020/03/06/johns-hopkins-ncaa-basketball-tournament-canceled-coronavirus/
https://www.foxnews.com/sports/coronavirus-outbreak-ncaa-division-iii-tournament-without-fans

And last night I received an email message from Cornell Vice President Ryan Lombardi that said:

"Large On- and Off-Campus Events

Effective Monday, March 9, we are postponing or canceling large (more than 100 people), non-essential events or work-related gatherings scheduled through April 15. This includes events sponsored by the university, colleges, schools, departments or units, as well as student-sponsored events, where a significant number of participants are expected to travel to or from the region for the event. This policy does not include on-campus events where participation is primarily by Cornell audiences."

I'm guessing athletic events are not yet included in the above, since nothing is said about them explicitly, but even so, I am worried.

Thoughts?

Cornell probably doesn't know yet. It knows students and attending alumni will be pissed if they can't go to the games. Yes, they have to balance revenue vs. yada yada safety yada yada. But a place like Cornell is risk-averse.

It sounds as if the QF round games don't need to ban fans. They're kind of doing it on their own.

Perhaps non-student fans could simply act like grown-ass adults by being safe and smart and staying home if they are in a high-risk group, which, for this virus, includes unfortunately just being older, or are often in close contact with those in a high-risk group through living situation or employment. Then we wouldn't have to de-audience the games to protect them.

(After all, college dorms are pretty much built disease vectors, so community transmission is a certainty on college campuses. If you're in a high-risk group, it might be a good idea to avoid contact with, well, students of any age.)

If games ended up being played in front of exclusively college-aged audiences, I'd be pretty fine with that.

The CCC just put out a release that says the Rap concert will go on as planned in Barton Hall on March 22nd.  Concerts bring a large contingent of out of town folks to campus, so how serious is the administration ?  I can't see them not allowing fans in Lynah and at the same time allow 4,000 people to a concert in Barton.

Quote from: Cop at LynahThe CCC just put out a release that says the Rap concert will go on as planned in Barton Hall on March 22nd.  Concerts bring a large contingent of out of town folks to campus, so how serious is the administration ?  I can't see them not allowing fans in Lynah and at the same time allow 4,000 people to a concert in Barton.

That is great news! Thanks for sharing!

From today's Ithaca Journal (https://www.ithacajournal.com/story/news/local/2020/03/06/coronavirus-ny-cornell-restrictions-spring-break-events-visitors-hockey/4973674002/).

Next weekend is still on (so far).

I've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

And, if Cornell wins those fanless NCAA's without me being there, I will carry hard-on for the rest of my life that I did NOT get to see that one either!!!   Son of a bitch!!!!!!

maybe they just dont allow people over 60 to attend any mass events..  there goes 75% of the home crowd.

cornell gets almost no money from hosting these playoff games anyway, they dont keep the ticket money and they dont kill it with revenue from concessions.

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

It might even become half as widespread as influenza by then.

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

correct.

what would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Now THAT'S the kind of existential question which makes this website worth following!

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

Quote from: osorojoNow THAT'S the kind of existential question which makes this website worth following!

Please go lick a Wuhan subway pole.

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

(https://i.imgur.com/nOtpynk.png)

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

+1000 (and increasing)

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

I certainly agree the numbers are increasing. However my point was not against that, but that to talk about them doubling every couple of days was wrong, and I think overly worrisome.

Our president tries to downplay the numbers and their risks. It's just as bad to overplay the numbers and risks. Right now, for most of the US, flu is a much bigger problem and we shouldn't over hype the problem of the new virus.

I'm not saying don't be concerned, but look at things logically and act accordingly.

I certainly do not feel any worry about going to CU games this weekend and unless things change a lot, no worry about the Quarters or LP.

It's certainly too far in the future to change plans for the regionals or Detroit.

Agreed.

Quote from: upprdeckwhat would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Quote from: upprdeckmaybe they just dont allow people over 60 to attend any mass events..  there goes 75% of the home crowd.

cornell gets almost no money from hosting these playoff games anyway, they dont keep the ticket money and they dont kill it with revenue from concessions.

But the coaches are paid from another pot of money. And the ECAC pays for travel, officiating costs and event staff. So it's a no-cost event. Plus think of the positive impact on the local economy. Think of all the drinking Cornell alums do before and after in all the Collegetown ba__

Quote from: billhoward

Quote from: upprdeckwhat would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: billhoward

Quote from: upprdeckwhat would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

It's probably a lot lower.

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: billhoward

Quote from: upprdeckwhat would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

It's probably a lot lower.

Thanks, good article and now I know where Bill got the 3.4 figure.

The 2% death rate for coronavirus was the one cited by China and then by US people. Only this week was it revised in the US to be 3.4%, there is belief the ratio may edge back to ~2%, and there is general agreement that the executive branch has not done a reassuring job including have a "hunch" about what the real number is.

The thing the public should bear in mind is that coronavirus appears to be 20x more likely to result in death than the average case of the flu in an average year. If you get it. And also that single number of 2% or 3.4% is on the order of 20 (or 34) times worse than getting the flu. And that a disprotionate number of fatal outcomes are in people of social security years.

Me, I haven't been to China in years. Our son came close to being hired to work in China helping their athletes prep for the 2022 Olympics. He was disappointed not to go. Now we're kind of glad he didn't.

I was also disappointed there's no toilet paper at Costco (we're down to a half-dozen six-packs). Instead, they put another 30 running feet of Bounty paper towels in place of the missing TP. Costco has a list of about 20 items you can only buy two of: TP, Purell, Lysol. I'd love to see them put a couple slow-selling items on just to move the inventory, like (this is NJ) a Taylor Hall / Devils jersey bobblehead doll.

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

ah fuck John's going to make another chart I don't understand

There's a good discussion of this between doctors on of all places USCHO Cafe.  One fun fact: lethality is contextual because infections can hit numbers that overwhelm local facilities.  So if hospitals have good funding and staffing patients can go through ventilation properly, lethality may only be in small fractions of a percent.  But places that cut their funding or have, I dunno, ludicrous social policies which disincentify quality medical service providers to live there, will be quickly overwhelmed and unable to provide proper end-to end treatment.  Result: lethality of 2-3% or even higher.

Bravo for life's little ironies.

millions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Quote from: upprdeckmillions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Agree, I suspect that the death ratio will end up something significantly below 1%. The above mentioned Vox article reported that when South Korea started doing something like mass testing, their death rate was measured around 0.5%.

Unfortunately it's easy to find stats that seem to suggest that this is like the worst thing ever, but with China's number of new cases decreasing, it may also be that the disease may not stay around as long as we think.

Mass hysteria is not what's needed at this time.

Data source:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

I agree with the consensus here that there is a lot of variability in who is getting tested.  I bet the current number of infections in the US is a lot higher than 442 and consequently the mortality rate is much lower.  

The problem with only allowing young people to attend sporting events or any large gathering is that although they will probably be fine if they get the infection, they potentially become COVID-19 vectors.  

For the long pull, the whole planet needs to step up on the development of specific vaccines and non-specific anti-viral agents for upper respiratory infections.  This COVID-19 problem will be resolved at some point (months if we are very lucky, a year or two if we are not) but then something else is bound to come along with the next mutant form of coronavirus, H1N1 virus or whatever.  

Sorry for the soap-boxing.

Who says numbers don't lie.  The chart makes no sense, the totals don't come close to the sum of the figures

Quote from: Cop at LynahWho says numbers don't lie.  The chart makes no sense, the totals don't come close to the sum of the figures

Okay, I fixed the errors.

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: upprdeckmillions of people get the flu shot, thousands still die and unknown numbers get the flu but dont even know it because its so mild.

we are only really testing people that we think have it and we have no vaccine. if we tested everyone more people we may find out dramatically different numbers on how many have it and how many have serious symptoms.

Agree, I suspect that the death ratio will end up something significantly below 1%. The above mentioned Vox article reported that when South Korea started doing something like mass testing, their death rate was measured around 0.5%.

Unfortunately it's easy to find stats that seem to suggest that this is like the worst thing ever, but with China's number of new cases decreasing, it may also be that the disease may not stay around as long as we think.

Mass hysteria is not what's needed at this time.

+1

Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical :)

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in :)

Quote from: adamwI would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive.

Or, "worse," sued. Or, maybe, they'll turn out to have been right. This nation, for all the reasons mentioned above, is, when compared with the other rich nations of the world, uniquely ill-suited to dealing with a pandemic. Mass panic is probably unwarranted, but a little bit of panic, as I have seen mentioned even by experts in high places, goes a long way and may be beneficial in the face of a great many unknowns.

Too bad we didn't do useful things with the month or so of lead time that China bought us all with its typically autocratic but in this case useful response to the outbreak. Then we all could have been making decisions based on numbers instead of well- or ill-informed conjectures of what those numbers might turn out to be.

It's not hard to imagine lawsuits arising from people who attended a sporting event and within 14 days tested positive for coronavirus. BIG $!Sports venues are certain to be considering this fact while they decide whether or not to open to the public.

Quote from: adamw(A)Granted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical :)

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. (B)So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in :)

Adam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Quote from: Jim HylaAdam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant.  My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down.  We've seen it already, and there's only a couple hundred cases.  Events canceled.  Gyms closed to the public.  Johns Hopkins closed to the public over 3 cases.

Quote from: osorojoIt's not hard to imagine lawsuits arising from people who attended a sporting event and within 14 days tested positive for coronavirus. BIG $!Sports venues are certain to be considering this fact while they decide whether or not to open to the public.

It's like people have never heard of assumption of risk, or something.

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: billhoward

Quote from: upprdeckwhat would the flu numbers be if we tested for it?

Flu as in influenza? 8% afflicted (normal year), 0.1% die - 1 of 1000

COVID-19, we know the numerator (deaths) but not denominator (cases), 2% die - 20 of 1000 - but maybe it's 3.4%. The deaths by decade of age are around 1% for people through their forties at least, when the overall mortality rate as said to be 2%, then starts upward in your sixties. It's ~14% for people in the their seventies which means the last full Democratic debate, they should have had spray shields between Sanders, Biden and Warren. Those numbers are what I've found. Most of the deaths of the alte kakers, people had something else going on like asthma, emphysema, heart disease.

I was about to say both the president and vice president are in their 70s as well but, no, the VP is just 60 and must be using silver highlighting because it's all one color for him.

Bill, when you say we know the numerator (deaths), but not denominator (cases), why do you then say that the 2% mortality maybe 3.4%?

We don't know the denominator because only really sick people are tested. That means if we did wider testing the denominator would expand, but not the numerator.

So the death rate would go down, not up.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/5/21165973/coronavirus-death-rate-explained

It's probably a lot lower.

Quote from: from the vox articleIn South Korea, for example, where they are testing thousands of people every day, they've picked up more than 6,088 people with the virus. Among those, 35 have died. That's a case fatality rate, for the moment, of around 0.5 percent.

Isn't this the most hopeful part of the above linked article?  I think that unless we see a large increase in Korean cases that the ultimate rate will be less than 1%.  Am I missing something?

Quote from: adamwGranted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical :)

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in :)

If I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

Quote from: rediceIf I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe :)

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

Quote"What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings."

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: rediceIf I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe :)

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

Quote"What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings."

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Speaking of assholes....

RPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Jim HylaAdam, B follows A. So don't do A.

Bill Nye has a nice podcast called "Science Rules." But I would add, "only if we let it."

So let's start letting it.

Well, I have nothing to do with B, Jim ... So what I say or don't about A is irrelevant.  My point was that - regardless of the numbers - sports leagues are going to be shutting things down.  We've seen it already, and there's only a couple hundred cases.  Events canceled.  Gyms closed to the public.  Johns Hopkins closed to the public over 3 cases.

You in particular, no, you don't control B. However the combined hysteria about this could easily lead to an unnecessary B and I would have liked to think that you didn't contrbute to that hysteria.

Then in another post you say:

QuoteBTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either

Now that's what I mean by contributing to hysteria. Damn, as of 3/7 there were 80k cases in China and you're talking about 1 million. There is just no scientific reason to be saying that, AT THIS TIME. Could it happen, sure and I could get hit by lightning. But it's not raining, so although there is heat lightning and you can have lightning in snowstorms, it's not something that I'm going to worry about, right now.

I thought you were a man of math and statistics. Well the statistics say that there aren't 1 million cases worldwide yet. So let's not promote that we could have a million here until we have some data to support the claim.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the FF being played with no fans, only you in the press will get to enjoy it. But I'd also bet that it won't be that way because of stats, but due to hysteria. I just wish that intelligent people wouldn't add to that hysteria, or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And that's too bad for the rest of us.

Quote from: Jim HylaI thought you were a man of math and statistics. Well the statistics say that there aren't 1 million cases worldwide yet. So let's not promote that we could have a million here until we have some data to support the claim.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on the FF being played with no fans, only you in the press will get to enjoy it. But I'd also bet that it won't be that way because of stats, but due to hysteria. I just wish that intelligent people wouldn't add to that hysteria, or it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

And that's too bad for the rest of us.

The mistake you are making Jim is thinking that I am hysterical about that number. I am not hysterical whatsoever. I am saying it matter of factly.  Even if it hit 1 million, I'd have no problem going to any of these events myself.  Me saying that is based upon numerous articles - from scientists, based on math - that suggest that number will be easily hit. I'll go dig them up for you.

Quote from: adamwGranted my numbers about being in the millions by end of March may be considered hysteria - but I am not personally hysterical :)

I would go to LP and the NCAAs with no real concern, personally, and I'm 49. But I do believe we will continue to see over-reactions by sports leagues and other places of large gatherings - because everyone is afraid that, if they don't do something, they'll get blasted for being clueless or insensitive. So there's going to be this groundswell of peer pressure, so to speak, for sports leagues to take action.  That's just my prediction. I hope it's wrong.

Hopefully if they play these games in closed buildings, they'll let the media in :)

The media will be in because there'll be video. And radio. Each team will have a school photographer. And once they're in, how to you keep out other media? The ECAC will lawyer up and want other media to sign waivers.

Quote from: redice

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: rediceIf I don't get in:   ::asshole::

:-)

Do you need an assistant for the tourney, Adam?

hmmm - maybe :)

BTW - I'm still not ready to concede that the 1 million number is certainly wrong, either ... cases in Westchester, where this started in NY, jumped from 12 to 80 just in a few days.

Here's Cuomo today...

Quote"What happened in the Westchester County was, the person who was positive was in a very large gathering. An infected person in a large gathering can infect many people quickly. We want to avoid large gatherings."

That doesn't bode well for sporting events.

Speaking of assholes....

Can I give +1000? (In regards to the asshole comment)

Good point: Rural areas without enough docs, and ventilators, higher fatality rate. I was hung up on how the fatality rate moves up for people over 60 especially if you underlying problems.

Hard to believe from seeing that all-silver hair, but Mike Pence is only 60, so if the unforeseen happens to the boss ...

and Klobuchar should stick close by the phone, too.

Don't shake hands, don't kiss babies, don't kiss babes, don't massage shoulders.

Meanwhile, I want the ECAC to Not Panic. I want to see the games in person.

Quote from: adamwRPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

If you watch on video, how would you know if Harvard closed its doors. The tipoff would be there's nobody there, and that could be a typical Harvard game in the healthiest of times.

Good stuff. A place such as Switzerland with good medical for everybody, I could see a low fatlity percentage, but it's a small sample size. We don't know how many cases there really are in each country.

If there are fatalities on the cruise ships we don't let dock at US ports, does it go on somebody else's tally?

I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.  

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places).  Also a high percentage of the male population smokes.  How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?  

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up.  That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?  

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan.  What is the demographic that frequents that type of market?  My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population.  If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Quote from: adamwRPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Quote from: andyw2100

Quote from: adamwRPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage?  Hold it at a neutral site.  Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If you tried to find toilet paper at Costco, you'd suspect pandemic. Costco replaced ~30 feet of toilet paper pallet area with another 30 feet of Bounty paper towels. Meanwhile, who needs TP? Costco is selling a basic Toto Washlet for $300. Their top line model with e-water is up near $1000.

How busy can Albany's Civic Center be? Or Messa?

Quote from: billhowardHow busy can Albany's Civic Center be? Or Messa?

They stopped the crowd from coming because of Cuomo's recommendation for events in New York.  The key is getting out of New York State.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.  

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places).  Also a high percentage of the male population smokes.  How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?  

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up.  That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?  

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan.  What is the demographic that frequents that type of market?  My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population.  If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Data suggests those who die are older and have underlying health issues. Trying to recall if researchers say poor health increases the fatality rate among young age groups. That seems likely. China's health care facilities may not be as good as in other developed countries.

Albany Times-Union Center hosts both NCAA basketball then hockey regionals last 2 weeks of March. At least, slated to host.

Quote from: billhoward

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82I've made this point on another non-hockey board, but let me make it here.  

1) Don't forget that China has major problems with pollution (and Wuhan has historically been one of the worst places).  Also a high percentage of the male population smokes.  How do those impact the mortality of a respiratory virus in China relative to the rest of the world?  

2) China's first reaction to the virus was to cover it up.  That certainly facilitated the spread, but how did that lack of treatment in the early phases impact the fatality rate?  

3) They're pretty sure this started in the exotic wet market in Wuhan.  What is the demographic that frequents that type of market?  My gut instinct is older and poorer relative to the general population.  If that is so, then the first exposures. i.e. the ones that received the least medical attention, would also skew older and poorer.

Clearly there's not enough data to tell if this creates a difference in mortality between China and other places, although the data from Korea suggest there is certainly the possibility of it.

Data suggests those who die are older and have underlying health issues. Trying to recall if researchers say poor health increases the fatality rate among young age groups. That seems likely. China's health care facilities may not be as good as in other developed countries.

Speaking from personal experience, they are not.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: andyw2100

Quote from: adamwRPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage?  Hold it at a neutral site.  Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If the rationale is that there are cases in Troy so let's not stick a lot of people from Troy together in a confined space, I don't see how having those Troyians (?) gather in a different venue mitigates the concern, or how you convince Yale or Dartmouth to play host to those folks.

Indian Wells cancelled.  thats a pretty big deal

Quote from: adamwRPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

This is the Troy Record's take (https://www.troyrecord.com/sports/rpi-men-s-hockey-quarterfinal-series-to-be-played-without/article_03d3a4e8-6180-11ea-a80d-a3be3ddaebd8.html) on the closed quarterfinals.  It has AD comments which is more than the simple questioning of Coach Dave Smith (https://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/RPI-will-play-playoff-series-in-front-of-no-fans-15115184.php) as reported in the Times Union.

Here is the Schenectady Gazette's article. (https://dailygazette.com/article/2020/03/08/fans-won-t-be-able-to-attend-rpi-harvard-ecac-hockey-tournament-quarterfinals)

Quote from: JasonN95

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: andyw2100

Quote from: adamwRPI just closed its doors to fans for this weekend ... I expect Cornell/Clarkson will do the same eventually.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php

I'm not sure how I feel about the following, but would be interested in others' thoughts.

I wonder if the ECAC would consider moving the game to Harvard. Yes, RPI earned the right to host the game, but if they aren't going to allow fans, are they really hosting? Were I an RPI fan, I'd prefer the option of driving to Cambridge and being able to watch the game in a college hockey environment as opposed to having the game played in an empty arena at RPI.

Edit: RPI could still have the "last change" advantage.

Why give Sucks a fan advantage?  Hold it at a neutral site.  Thompson isn't being used, nor is the Whale.

If the rationale is that there are cases in Troy so let's not stick a lot of people from Troy together in a confined space, I don't see how having those Troyians (?) gather in a different venue mitigates the concern, or how you convince Yale or Dartmouth to play host to those folks.

Agreed.  But then if the goal is to keep "Trojans" from infecting other cities, why would you allow them to go to Boston/Allston?

Now it's time to be logical:  The NY outbreak is primarily among the Orthodox Jewish community in Westchester and Rockland Counties.  How many Orthodox Jews will be attending a hockey game two hours away on Friday night or Saturday?  

And is there ANY evidence that the virus has spread due to attendance at a sports venue?  Not that I've seen.  The majority of cases outside of China were initiated by returning tourists, first from China, then from Iran and Italy.  And there's a big difference between people "trapped" on a bus or especially a cruise ship for one or two weeks versus people in an arena for three hours. Those are incubators.  Is an arena?

But again, lack of data is leading to extreme reactions.

Quote from: upprdeckIndian Wells cancelled.  thats a pretty big deal

For those, like me, who wondered, here:

Indian Wells Tennis Tournament Canceled Because of Coronavirus Outbreak (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/08/sports/coronavirus-indian-wells-canceled.html)

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwI've already predicted the NCAAs will be played in front of no fans. Lake Placid - not as sure right now. But I would not be surprised one iota. Cases are doubling every couple days or so? With that rate, it would be in the millions by end of March.

Cases are doubling partially because there are finally tests available for patients to be tested. Initially, if you couldn't be tested, you couldn't be diagnosed. Now that testing is available, cases are being found.

So that data interpretation is not valid. Yes cases are increasing, but we don't really know at what rate.

The fact the we couldn't test before is another example of our government failure. The WHO had a testing kit, but we had to try and develop a better one. And that test kit turned out to be in error, setting back the whole process.

Whether they are actual new cases, or existing ones we had not been able to test for previously, the point is that the number of known cases are still going up, and that is not going to make people feel any safer about having large crowds get together.

ah fuck John's going to make another chart I don't understand

More proof that I'm not a "real statistician" is that I have trouble getting inspired by biological applications.

Columbia is shut down i was told and will re-open with all classes held remotely or online only.

Quote from: upprdeckColumbia is shut down i was told and will re-open with all classes held remotely or online only.

Classes are suspended today and tomorrow and will go remote for the rest of the week, but the university is not "shut down."
https://preparedness.columbia.edu/news/update-covid-19-and-class-activity

I was just going by what the kids who go there told me.  I heard remote classes possibly for the rest of the semester from Profs down there.  Shut down in the sense of kids going to school  I guess was too literal a term to use.   Unless you send everyone home it wont really be shut down.

Cornell's silence on athletics events is deafening. Several thousand alumni and fans who aren't students have plans for one of Cornell's most high-profile winter/spring sports weekends ever in Ithaca:

* #1 Women's hockey NCAA tournament game Saturday 2 pm
* #2 Men's lacrosse plays former #1 Yale Saturday 1 pm
* #1 Men's hockey plays Friday and Saturday night (Sunday, too, maybe, but statistically unlikely)
* And some other sports

As of Monday, Cornell U's last update on its plans https://www.cornell.edu/coronavirus/ was last Thursday. There's nothing even saying "We recognize there's a lot of sportsing coming up and some of it's high-level sportsing and we're thinking about how to keep the campus safe and also let fans recognize and support their teams. And for those of you planning a visit, please stop by cornell.edu/bequests first."

Maddening. One challenge for Cornell (Day Hall) is that when you operate out of Ithaca, you don't need your A-game to ignore the Ithaca Journal and Daily Sun on a daily basis. It's only when something really big happens such as another incident involving Greeks, suicides even if Cornell's rate is no different than other big schools (14 per 100,000 students per year across most colleges), or a challenge to admissions protocols.

Be nice to hear from Cornell. I've got my bags packed for Ithaca.

There is this from Friday's Ithaca Journal:

Quote from: Ashley Biviano, IJAthletic events are not affected, said Jeremy Hartigan, associate director of athletics for communications, because attendance is largely Cornell-based.

Hartigan added, "It's obviously a rapidly changing landscape we're viewing, and that answer could change in the future." https://www.ithacajournal.com/story/news/local/2020/03/06/coronavirus-ny-cornell-restrictions-spring-break-events-visitors-hockey/4973674002/

Lots of meetings but no one really knows what the best course of action is.

Quote from: upprdeckLots of meetings but no one really knows what the best course of action is.

Put Cornell's vice-president in charge of the response.

Princeton tells students to go on spring break and then preferably stay home. Classes will be virtual instruction. Hed written by someone taught to never include the most important part of the message in the headline: "President Eisgruber Updates University on Next Steps Regarding COVID-19 to Ensure Health and Well-Being of the Entire Community"

Quote from: Princeton Office of CommunicationsThough we recognize that a personal, "high touch" educational environment is one of Princeton's great strengths, we also recognize that these are extraordinary times that require exceptional measures to deal with a health risk that affects us all.  For that reason, we are creating, supporting, and mandating alternative ways of meeting our academic and other programmatic requirements in ways consistent with social distancing.  This will include a mandatory, temporary move for all lectures, seminars, and precepts to virtual instruction starting on Monday, March 23.  We encourage students to consider staying home after Spring Break.  If students choose to remain home after Spring Break, we will make sure that they are able to meet their academic requirements remotely. https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/03/09/president-eisgruber-updates-university-next-steps-regarding-covid-19-ensure-health

will the Ivies stick together on this.   of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

Quote from: upprdeckwill the Ivies stick together on this.   of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

And the Ivies have a LOT of international students.

Princeton has already made its choice. Columbia has cancelled classes for Monday/Tuesday 3/9-10 then virtual the rest of the week, then nothing said about after that.

Quote from: upprdeckwill the Ivies stick together on this.   of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

There's not yet a reason for the Ivies to form a uniform school policy.

As of right now, it's likely that CU and Dartmouth would have less current risk than more metropolitan schools.

I think the issue is what happens when kids go home for break and come back.

Quote from: upprdeckI think the issue is what happens when kids go home for break and come back.

I agree, if you go to an endemic area, you should be treated just like any other person who travels.

But that doesn't mean you have to close it to everyone.

Might be simpler, however.

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: upprdeckwill the Ivies stick together on this.   of course staying home not an option for many who dont go home

There's not yet a reason for the Ivies to form a uniform school policy.

As of right now, it's likely that CU and Dartmouth would have less current risk than more metropolitan schools.

And the vet school doesn't treat civet cats.

Press pool report coming out of VP Pence's office last week had it as "civic cat." Memes followed quickly.

I'm chuckling at Dartmouth being low-risk given that medical resident who managed to go to a Tuck business school party after being told to self quarantine. My semi-retired physician parents (with backgrounds in public health and infectious disease) are both affiliated with Dartmouth college, med-school, and hospital and are....unimpressed by the current response.

I'm currently sitting in the airport in Hong Kong flying back to Shanghai later today and it will be interesting to see how things go (Shanghai has aggressive health screening in place for inbound flights).  My fiance flew back yesterday and managed to get out of airport in 1.5 hours with no restrictions on her movement or directive to self quarantine.  Meanwhile one of my colleagues who also flew back yesterday took 6 hours to clear the airport and is telling me that all Americans will be required to self-quarantine.

Since there's been a long discussion re death rates in this thread I'll throw in my parents' comments (based on many years of doing medical projects in China) which are that China struggles to offer strong ICU care, so they strongly suspect a lot of the deaths of otherwise young/healthy individuals have been a result of operator error with ventilators and various other machines used during care.

This whole thing shouldn't result in panic but is worth taking seriously, with the serious response being to really properly wash hands (20-30 seconds with good soap, top of hand, each finger, palms, and finger tips/nails), everything else is security theater though masks do at least stop one from touching one's face.

Quote from: cu15520-30 seconds with good soap

Please define "good" soap?  Are you telling my Dial Gold bars are going to kill me?

Your Dial Gold bars definitely have it out for you...;)

I think pretty much any bar soap is fine as long as it allows you to work up a good lather as it's the mechanical action you get from the hand washing that removes the bad juju.  The key is really taking the time to get both sides of the hand, each finger and especially the finger tips (it's generally the area around the nails that stays dirty when they do cleanliness trials in hospitals).  In ORs they use sterile scrubbers to get under and around each nail, but you can get pretty much the same effect from little wooden scraper sticks that you can buy online.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: cu15520-30 seconds with good soap

Please define "good" soap?  Are you telling my Dial Gold bars are going to kill me?

Actually, when I went in for a surgical procedure in June, they told me Dial antibacterial soap was sufficient for creating a sterile situation for the procedure.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: cu15520-30 seconds with good soap

Please define "good" soap?  Are you telling my Dial Gold bars are going to kill me?

Actually, when I went in for a surgical procedure in June, they told me Dial antibacterial soap was sufficient for creating a sterile situation for the procedure.

If you want the real good stuff look for chlorhexadine gluconate.  But that is overkill for this disease in my opinion.  I have some in the house, I believe, that is a left over from a pre-surgical scrub and I never even considered looking for it, let alone using it.

But it is wonderful in that it not only kills most bugs but it gets into your skin (https://hibiclens.com/) (or oral tissue (https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/company-us/all-3m-products/~/peridex-3M-ESPE-Peridex-Chlorhexidine-Gluconate-0-12-Oral-Rinse/?N=5002385+3294768941&rt=rud) ) and keeps on killing for 24 hours or so IIRC.

CU155 you raise an interesting point that I've been wondering about.

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4% (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html). But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th (https://pnhp.org/news/americas-ranking-on-amenable-mortality-is-an-embarrassment/), just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

Quote from: SwampyCU155 you raise an interesting point that I've been wondering about.

We're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4% (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html). But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

Definitely depends on the area's demographics. One of the reasons cited for cancelling the Indian Wells tennis tournament is that it is in Palm Springs - an area flush with elderly retired folks.

Quote from: SwampyWe're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4% (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html). But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th (https://pnhp.org/news/americas-ranking-on-amenable-mortality-is-an-embarrassment/), just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this.  Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: SwampyWe're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4% (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html). But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th (https://pnhp.org/news/americas-ranking-on-amenable-mortality-is-an-embarrassment/), just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this.  Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

I don't know that the healthcare system is unprepared, most of the issues seem to be related to the feds.

At least in Syracuse the system seems ready, but they don't have enough tests to check anyone who is ill. They still have to do the screening process, which is silly. If you want to get good stats, reassure the populace and isolate early cases, you need to test people who are sick and worried.

2 years ago I had a fever and body aches, felt terrible. Wondering if it was the flu, I got tested. It was negative and as soon as my fever was gone and I felt up to it, I went back to work. If I had the flu, I probably would have stayed out a couple of days more.

Early detection is important in infectious diseases.

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: SwampyWe're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4% (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html). But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th (https://pnhp.org/news/americas-ranking-on-amenable-mortality-is-an-embarrassment/), just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this.  Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

I don't know that the healthcare system is unprepared, most of the issues seem to be related to the feds.

At least in Syracuse the system seems ready, but they don't have enough tests to check anyone who is ill. They still have to do the screening process, which is silly. If you want to get good stats, reassure the populace and isolate early cases, you need to test people who are sick and worried.

2 years ago I had a fever and body aches, felt terrible. Wondering if it was the flu, I got tested. It was negative and as soon as my fever was gone and I felt up to it, I went back to work. If I had the flu, I probably would have stayed out a couple of days more.

Early detection is important in infectious diseases.

I'll yield to your expertise, Jim, but I do think given the number of required hospitalizations required with this virus, the number of beds available could be overwhelmed, especially on a local basis.  Certainly, that's what they've seen in other countries.

I also think the financial costs to individuals will be devastating and could in fact inhibit people from getting tested or treated.  Yet another flaw of our capitalism-based health system.

The issue with the lack of testing is a real problem.  I read somewhere (BBC?) that the number of people tested in the UK is 5-10 times that of people tested in the US, and the UK has far fewer cases at the moment, never mind a much smaller population.

+1

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: SwampyWe're hearing summary statistics, like the virus's death rate, estimated by WHO at 3.4% (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/07/upshot/how-deadly-is-coronavirus-what-we-know.html). But besides the presence of other medical conditions, if age is a predictor of the disease's mortality rate, then won't the death rate depend on an area's demographics? And, more to the point, won't it also depend on a country's healthcare system?

For example, the "Amenable Mortality Rate" measures what proportion of a country's population dies each year from preventable diseases. The U.S. ranks around 55th (https://pnhp.org/news/americas-ranking-on-amenable-mortality-is-an-embarrassment/), just below Croatia and Estonia, and just above Montenegro and Lebanon. So someone seeking care in the U.S. faces several impediments. It's not the germ's fault; it's the system's.

It most certainly does, and the one thing we're seeing in this country is that the healthcare system and the government are woefully unprepared for this.  Sadly we're going to find out how unprepared as time goes by.

I don't know that the healthcare system is unprepared, most of the issues seem to be related to the feds.

At least in Syracuse the system seems ready, but they don't have enough tests to check anyone who is ill. They still have to do the screening process, which is silly. If you want to get good stats, reassure the populace and isolate early cases, you need to test people who are sick and worried.

2 years ago I had a fever and body aches, felt terrible. Wondering if it was the flu, I got tested. It was negative and as soon as my fever was gone and I felt up to it, I went back to work. If I had the flu, I probably would have stayed out a couple of days more.

Early detection is important in infectious diseases.

I'll yield to your expertise, Jim, but I do think given the number of required hospitalizations required with this virus, the number of beds available could be overwhelmed, especially on a local basis.  Certainly, that's what they've seen in other countries.

I also think the financial costs to individuals will be devastating and could in fact inhibit people from getting tested or treated.  Yet another flaw of our capitalism-based health system.

The issue with the lack of testing is a real problem.  I read somewhere (BBC?) that the number of people tested in the UK is 5-10 times that of people tested in the US, and the UK has far fewer cases at the moment, never mind a much smaller population.

I totally agree with what you're saying including the issue of overwhelming the hospitals ability to treat. But some of that goes to our inability to test and find early cases. Doing that would minimize the number of cases and thus the number of hospital admissions.

Meaning we didn't have the ability to attack this aggressively very early on. If we had, we could have been better able to control it sooner.

Also the feds should make testing free, including for uninsured. When asked about that at the press conference yesterday, they (Pence, et. al.) just walked out of the room.

That's the problem, and why our costs just keep on rising.

The Ivy League basketball tournaments (men's and women's) have been canceled.

https://ivyleague.com/news/2020/3/10/general-ivy-league-cancels-basketball-tournaments-limits-spectators-at-all-sporting-events.aspx

QuoteEffective immediately, the League is also implementing highly-restrictive, in-venue spectator limitations for all other upcoming campus athletics events. The League is also canceling all out-of-season practices and competitions.

And, here's the bad news:

https://cornellbigredtickets.universitytickets.com/

Wow that stinks. Why ban lacrosse? Not exactly packed into Schoelkopf like sardines.

They're claiming it's League policy.
Either way it stinks, was looking forward to Lax on Saturday.

Buuuuuul-shit!  

Lynah Closed for Playoffs (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/10_Cornell-Closing-Lynah-Rink.php) ::cuss::

Quote from: The RancorBuuuuuul-shit!  

Lynah Closed for Playoffs (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/10_Cornell-Closing-Lynah-Rink.php) ::cuss::

Assholes!!!!!

Just my opinion, but all of this is stupid. We have no cases for a couple hundred miles.

But yes there might be someone who travels from a virus area. The likely risk of that is very small.

And why is this an Ivy League policy? Shouldn't each school decide? Or since these are ECAC games, shouldn't they decide.

Now if Q decides it's okay, how can Yale go there and play in front of fans? Shouldn't they be restricted by Ivy policy?

I suspect this is risk adverse worry. No one wants to take the tiny chance that someone will get sick. Heavens, they'd probably sue the school and both leagues.

In case someone needs newspapers and/or Snickers, let me know. :-D I suddenly have an overabundance of both.

Quote from: getredAnd, here's the bad news:

https://cornellbigredtickets.universitytickets.com/

Well there's a serious dent in our home ice advantage now.

This will probably offend some folks but needs to be said:

FUCKING LAWYERS!!!!

They drive the mentality that forced this decision....   Jesus Christ!!!!!

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: getredAnd, here's the bad news:

https://cornellbigredtickets.universitytickets.com/

Well there's a serious dent in our home ice advantage now.

Maybe they recorded past chants and can pipe them in.

Quote from: Jim HylaBut yes there might be someone who travels from a virus area. The likely risk of that is very small.

i mean, beeeej would have been there and he touches his face CONSTANTLY

I wonder what this means for the championships in Lake Placid. I imagine Lake Placid relies on the tourism revenue from that weekend quite a bit. Perhaps that will allow them to make a more rational decision.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: getredAnd, here's the bad news:

https://cornellbigredtickets.universitytickets.com/

Well there's a serious dent in our home ice advantage now.

Maybe they recorded past chants and can pipe them in.

Or maybe we could just infect the visiting teams with the virus and quarantine them so they can't play.

Quote from: andyw2100I wonder what this means for the championships in Lake Placid. I imagine Lake Placid relies on the tourism revenue from that weekend quite a bit. Perhaps that will allow them to make a more rational decision.

Hotel prices in Placid haven't dropped yet.

I guess the next "logical" step is to cancel all classes and close the campus down.  If they can't be in Lynah, why are they allowed in lecture halls, cafeterias, etc??

Just saw they're putting a "containment" around New Rochelle.  I guess the school overreacted since now all those Orthodox Jews from there won't be able to spend their Shabbos at Lynah or Schoellkopf.  ::wank::

all the fans should show up as the PU buses show up and yell from outside the building- into microphones running through the PA.

Quote from: The Rancorall the fans should show up as the PU buses show up and yell from outside the building- into microphones running through the PA.

I actually wondered about the possibility of a bunch of fans showing up to watch the game on ESPN+ from just outside Lynah. I'm guessing, though, since Cornell is still private property Campus Police would disperse any crowd.

Quote from: andyw2100

Quote from: The Rancorall the fans should show up as the PU buses show up and yell from outside the building- into microphones running through the PA.

I actually wondered about the possibility of a bunch of fans showing up to watch the game on ESPN+ from just outside Lynah. I'm guessing, though, since Cornell is still private property Campus Police would disperse any crowd.

Work it out, I'd go.

Quote from: andyw2100I wonder what this means for the championships in Lake Placid. I imagine Lake Placid relies on the tourism revenue from that weekend quite a bit. Perhaps that will allow them to make a more rational decision.

If the powers that be in New York State are pulling any of the strings resulting in the fan-cancel culture we may be in for bad news. ORDA (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olympic_Regional_Development_Authority)

QuoteNow if Q decides it's okay, how can Yale go there and play in front of fans? Shouldn't they be restricted by Ivy policy?

Ixne on that logic please with LP and the NC$$s coming.

Quote from: Jim HylaIn case someone needs newspapers and/or Snickers, let me know. :-D I suddenly have an overabundance of both.

I hope that the Snickers don't get stale waiting for 20-21.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Just saw they're putting a "containment" around New Rochelle.  I guess the school overreacted since now all those Orthodox Jews from there won't be able to spend their Shabbos at Lynah or Schoellkopf.  ::wank::

We do have Stienberg.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Just saw they're putting a "containment" around New Rochelle.  I guess the school overreacted since now all those Orthodox Jews from there won't be able to spend their Shabbos at Lynah or Schoellkopf.  ::wank::

We do have Stienberg.

It actually made me look up whether there was even a Jewish community in Halifax.  There is!  Whaddya know!

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Just saw they're putting a "containment" around New Rochelle.  I guess the school overreacted since now all those Orthodox Jews from there won't be able to spend their Shabbos at Lynah or Schoellkopf.  ::wank::

We do have Stienberg.

add his name to speling

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Just saw they're putting a "containment" around New Rochelle.  I guess the school overreacted since now all those Orthodox Jews from there won't be able to spend their Shabbos at Lynah or Schoellkopf.  ::wank::

We do have Stienberg.

add his name to speling

Yep...it's Stienburg, with a "u".

And knowing ugarte, I'm assuming the misspelling of "speling" was intentional?

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82And knowing ugarte, I'm assuming the misspelling of "speling" was intentional?

look at the list!

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82And knowing ugarte, I'm assuming the misspelling of "speling" was intentional?

I'm sure it is, since that's the actual name of the section over there in the right-hand column of this page.  ----->

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82And knowing ugarte, I'm assuming the misspelling of "speling" was intentional?

look at the list!

D'oh!  I actually never looked at the title of the list closely.

Off the ice

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/410980/covid-19-cases-silent-transmission-could-already-be-happening-expert

Quote from: Jim Hyla... snip ...

And why is this an Ivy League policy? Shouldn't each school decide? Or since these are ECAC games, shouldn't they decide.

Now if Q decides it's okay, how can Yale go there and play in front of fans? Shouldn't they be restricted by Ivy policy?

... snip ...

In a showing of solidarity, the ECAC should cowpoke up and ban fans from all playoff venues.

RPI has also banned fans from the quarterfinal it's hosting (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/08_RPI-First-to-Close-Arena-.php). This leaves Clarkson and Quinnipiac. As Jim mentioned, out of fairness to the other Ivies in the tourney, if nothing else (like consistency), the Ivy League should tell Yale it cannot play if Q allows fans at the event. (Harvard plays at RPI.)

This leaves Clarkson. In its remote, rural setting one might make the case that a fanban is unnecessary. But then why should Clarkson gain a home ice advantage just because it's located where nobody wants to live? And if some teams in the league are prohibited from allowing fans because they have league-within-a-league membership, then if the ECAC truly wants to include that league-within-a-league shouldn't it make the ban ECAC-wide. Think of the legend of Christian X (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/a-star-is-borne/).

The ECAC could smooth all this out, displaying both substanial precaution and a desire to demonstrate the ECAC wants parity of treatment rather than a heavy thumb on the scale in favor of its non-Ivy teams, by simply extending the Ivy fanban.

Quote from: iceOff the ice

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-highlights-ease-spread-covid-19-viruses

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/410980/covid-19-cases-silent-transmission-could-already-be-happening-expert

I'm not quite sure what you're trying to say by posting those links. Some of the discussion is absolute bs. They mention the same 1 million cases that Adam talked about. This data comes from "according to several epidemiological studies". However the link goes to only one study from China in January. Well the new case rate from China has dropped markedly. So what about data from the last 6 weeks.

Initial data from outbreaks is known to be poor, and when the author mentions "several... studies" and links to only one, I have to cry foul.

Unfortunately it's this type of hysterical writing that leads to bad outcomes.

If our government had tried to set up a plan back in January, at the latest, and had calmly laid it all out to the public, we wouldn't be in this mess.

I guess that concert crowds are either not as important, or stronger immunologically, or NYS is not as afraid of lawsuits as are universities.

I have a concert at The Egg, on the NYS government campus in Albany tomorrow night. It's essentially sold out and I've heard nothing about it being cancelled.

I wonder why that is?

Please strictly limit this thread to a discussion of closures at hockey games, or move it to JSID.

I like you people.  The more I read you on anything but hockey the less I like you.  

I want to keep liking you.

So in the last 30 minutes Cornell is informing students that all in-person classes are cancelled the rest of the year.  Have no idea what this means for the rest of our sports seasons, but I can't think it's good news.

https://twitter.com/cornellsun/status/1237484464940486657

Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

I can't imagine games will continue.  That would leave the university wide open to litigation if and when somebody tests positive.  And a lot of Cornellians have New Jersey lawyer parents.

Not the hockey players, though.  Canadians aren't assholes so let them play.  :-)

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

how many kids will go home if you have a place off campus you are paying for?

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

We only need add 800 student ticket holders as players.  That gives us 2400 additional guests.

Quote from: upprdeckhow many kids will go home if you have a place off campus you are paying for?

The ones whose parents tell them to get a job, so, mine.  :-)

Quote from: TrotskyI can't imagine games will continue.  That would leave the university wide open to litigation if and when somebody tests positive.  And a lot of Cornellians have New Jersey lawyer parents.

Not the hockey players, though.  Canadians aren't assholes so let them play.  :-)

Sure, probably wishful thinking on my part.

At this point, I'm not worried about fans. Fans are gravy. I just hope the season gets a conclusion.

At least, the fan in me hopes that. The less hockey-crazed part of me generally thinks these more drastic measures are the right thing to do.

What would be the incentive league wise if attendance is restricted from here on out ?  No ticket revenue or concession revenue with all the same expenditures.  This really sucks for the team, I'm just glad it's Princeton and not Harvard or Clarkson that they are playing from fans perspective.

Quote from: Cop at LynahWhat would be the incentive league wise if attendance is restricted from here on out ?  No ticket revenue or concession revenue with all the same expenditures.  This really sucks for the team, I'm just glad it's Princeton and not Harvard or Clarkson that they are playing from fans perspective.

Honor their commitment to the student-athletes?

What?

Stop laughing!

Quote from: upprdeckhow many kids will go home if you have a place off campus you are paying for?

i don't think cornell is kicking you out of the city

Quote from: TrotskyI can't imagine games will continue.  That would leave the university wide open to litigation if and when somebody tests positive.  And a lot of Cornellians have New Jersey lawyer parents.

Not the hockey players, though.  Canadians aren't assholes so let them play.  :-)

The president of Cornell literally just released a statement, posted above by scoop85, stating that each athlete can invite three people to sporting events. From this you conclude that it is unimaginable that games will continue? The mortality rate of a 21-year-old D1 athlete from the virus is probably below .01%. What exactly is the risk of letting them play?

Someone teach one of the parents the cowbell - quick.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: TrotskyI can't imagine games will continue.  That would leave the university wide open to litigation if and when somebody tests positive.  And a lot of Cornellians have New Jersey lawyer parents.

Not the hockey players, though.  Canadians aren't assholes so let them play.  :-)

The president of Cornell literally just released a statement, posted above by scoop85, stating that each athlete can invite three people to sporting events. From this you conclude that it is unimaginable that games will continue? The mortality rate of a 21-year-old D1 athlete from the virus is probably below .01%. What exactly is the risk of letting them play?

So if they are allowing games to continue (fingers crossed), I assume the freshmen who live in the dorms will have to move in with some upper class teammates. Lots of logistical hurdles.

I would venture a guess that pretty much everyone who lives off-campus stays in Ithaca. What sounds better, living care-free with your friends because you don't ever have to go to class or living with your parents?

the mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

That's ... interesting

Would think that would have a very drastic impact on the local economy.

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Explain, what city, Ithaca? And who's meant by everyone, city employees, students?

The games are going on this weekend, just with very limited fan attendance. I don't think anyone can predict just yet what the situation will be with Lake Placid or the NCAA tournament

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Explain, what city, Ithaca? And who's meant by everyone, city employees, students?

If it's Ithaca's mayor, he's a certified idiot!   So, I wouldn't be to moved by any of his actions.

Quote from: redice

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Explain, what city, Ithaca? And who's meant by everyone, city employees, students?

If it's Ithaca's mayor, he's a certified idiot!   So, I wouldn't be to moved by any of his actions.

How about keeping it reasonable, and spelling correctly.:-D

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: redice

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Explain, what city, Ithaca? And who's meant by everyone, city employees, students?

If it's Ithaca's mayor, he's a certified idiot!   So, I wouldn't be to moved by any of his actions.

How about keeping it reasonable, and spelling correctly.:-D

Screw you, Jim!!

Sorry - posted this without noticing someone beat me to it earlier...

Students have been told to not come back from Spring Break and "attend" classes remotely. Not sure what that means for athletics. Here's an excerpt of the announcement:

Most significantly, we will move to virtual instruction. We are asking faculty to begin that transition now so that after spring break all instruction – for the rest of the semester – will be online. We will be asking all undergraduate students and many professional degree students to leave campus at the start of spring break and to remain at their permanent home residence, completing their semesters remotely. (When essential, we will honor requests for exemptions).

Quote from: nmcorm83Sorry - posted this without noticing someone beat me to it earlier...

Students have been told to not come back from Spring Break and "attend" classes remotely. Not sure what that means for athletics. Here's an excerpt of the announcement:

Most significantly, we will move to virtual instruction. We are asking faculty to begin that transition now so that after spring break all instruction – for the rest of the semester – will be online. We will be asking all undergraduate students and many professional degree students to leave campus at the start of spring break and to remain at their permanent home residence, completing their semesters remotely. (When essential, we will honor requests for exemptions).

Evacuate Ithaca.  If no one is in town no one will be infected.

The occupy somewhere else movement?

Quote from: marty

Quote from: nmcorm83Sorry - posted this without noticing someone beat me to it earlier...

Students have been told to not come back from Spring Break and "attend" classes remotely. Not sure what that means for athletics. Here's an excerpt of the announcement:

Most significantly, we will move to virtual instruction. We are asking faculty to begin that transition now so that after spring break all instruction – for the rest of the semester – will be online. We will be asking all undergraduate students and many professional degree students to leave campus at the start of spring break and to remain at their permanent home residence, completing their semesters remotely. (When essential, we will honor requests for exemptions).

Evacuate Ithaca.  If no one is in town no one will be infected.

The occupy somewhere else movement?

About as logical as the rest this nonsense.

This is getting ridiculous.  The annual charity tournament I was supposed to play in this weekend consisting of local pick-up hockey players like myself just got cancelled.  I'm sure the dense population around Middlebury, VT is a real hotbed for risk.

We play at the public rink, not the college.  I also just saw Middlebury College has not only cancelled classes like Cornell, they have also cancelled all spring sports until further notice.

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Makes perfect sense, especially in the Trump era. Mayor declares martial law and sends Ithaca police, backed by mobs of townie vigilantes, to kick all studentS out of their apartments and send them home to Westchester. Their leases on their apartments are still in effect, so the students must still send in the rent or forfeit their security deposits.

To make up for the hit on the local economy, the mayor initiates public works projects and builds a wall around Tompkins County.

What could possibly go wrong?

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: upprdeckthe mayor told everyone to go home this afternoon as well.

Makes perfect sense, especially in the Trump era. Mayor declares martial law and sends Ithaca police, backed by mobs of townie vigilantes, to kick all studentS out of their apartments and send them home to Westchester. Their leases on their apartments are still in effect, so the students must still send in the rent or forfeit their security deposits.

To make up for the hit on the local economy, the mayor initiates public works projects and builds a wall around Tompkins County.

What could possibly go wrong?

Those wetbacks from Elmira, that's what!

So if Cornell gets to rd 1 in Albany probably no fans.. Wonder what happens in Allentown.

Albany has banned fans?

I'd put the odds of having fans at Lake Placid or any NCAA games at 0.47%

math

So I was thinking these steps were overreaction, but the situation seems to be deteriorating rapidly, and large gatherings have been banned in many places, so I think these recommendations are now coming from the health authorities.  The pro hockey leagues in Germany have cancelled (not just no fans, no games) the rest of their playoffs, because several states were banning gatherings of over 1000 people.  I would guess that the average attendee is not at much risk of exposure, maybe interacting closely with 5-10 other people.  But multiply that by four or five thousand, and the odds of some transmission occurring are a lot higher.  So it seems like it's in the interest of jurisdictions to cancel events, even if it's not in the interest of individuals to skip them.

Interestingly, RIT has not cancelled classes yet, although there's been a lot of contingency planning about what we'd do if we had to.  Given that we have a lot of online courses already (like mine), we're probably better suited to pull it off than most universities.

Quote from: TrotskyAlbany has banned fans?

No and speculation is king in the state Capital.  

Jim's observation that he is attending a concert at "The Egg" is a hopeful sign.  That venue isn't a stone's throw from the Times Union Center, but a hard slap shot would make it.

How realistic is it that you could keep some of these events open and just ensure people spread out a bit? Like some sort of rule that you can only sell 25% of the tickets of the usual capacity. Something like that

Quote from: marty

Quote from: TrotskyAlbany has banned fans?

No and speculation is king in the state Capital.  

Jim's observation that he is attending a concert at "The Egg" is a hopeful sign.  That venue isn't a stone's throw from the Times Union Center, but a hard slap shot would make it.

For reference (https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/519845-longest-ice-hockey-pass/).

QuoteThe longest ice hockey pass is 275.63 m (904.33 ft), and was achieved by Zach Lamppa and Tom Chorske (both USA) on Lake of the Isles in Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA, on 20 November 2018.

I came to this thread to post how it's a shame we (fans, alumni fans) can't come to Ithaca and get in to watch what will be one of the best Cornell sports weekends ever, with MHockey, WHockey and MLax ranked 1, 1 and 2 in the nation, all playing national caliber opponents.

But some of the let's-blame/kill-the lawyers reaction here and similar comments is overboard. Fear of legal liability is a concern but Cornell is also acting in the interest of public safety. Ithaca may not have any/many cases of Covid-19, but with fans coming in from everywhere, the odds suggest somebody might be a carrier, and all of a sudden of the other 5,000 hockey-hockey-lax fans spread it further. Who'd want to sit next to a fan coming in from New Rochelle?

I'd like to push our unhappiness in another direction: Get Cornell to add a reverse angle camera in Lynah so we can see better than if we were there in person. Nobody ever knows what's happening in the corner near the band.

Lastly, you can see lax game sort of okay from the top level of the parking garage.

The camera experience could vastly improved at Lynah for very little cost.  You could add some remote controlled cameras or even a couple at center ice pointing back towards each goal and that would add a lot to what you can see.

Well at least our guys will know what it feels like this weekend if they went to Harvard instead. Actually, any of the ECAC teams that played last weekend by crowd sizes I saw on tv.

I don't know if this is too pie-in-the-sky, but would there be a way to set up something like a Zoom meeting with the game broadcasting?  That way, you can hear all of the other fans while the game is going on, sort of like a VR rink experience?

Quote from: French RageI don't know if this is too pie-in-the-sky, but would there be a way to set up something like a Zoom meeting with the game broadcasting?  That way, you can hear all of the other fans while the game is going on, sort of like a VR rink experience?

That sounds horrible.  I'm in!  :-)

Quote from: adamwI'd put the odds of having fans at Lake Placid or any NCAA games at 0.47%

math

Based on how many Monte Carlo simulations? :)

Quote from: KGR11

Quote from: adamwI'd put the odds of having fans at Lake Placid or any NCAA games at 0.47%

math

Based on how many Monte Carlo simulations? :)

At least 20,000 in my head - given how it is spinning.

Quote from: jtwcornell91So I was thinking these steps were overreaction, but the situation seems to be deteriorating rapidly, and large gatherings have been banned in many places, so I think these recommendations are now coming from the health authorities.  The pro hockey leagues in Germany have cancelled (not just no fans, no games) the rest of their playoffs, because several states were banning gatherings of over 1000 people.  I would guess that the average attendee is not at much risk of exposure, maybe interacting closely with 5-10 other people.  But multiply that by four or five thousand, and the odds of some transmission occurring are a lot higher.  So it seems like it's in the interest of jurisdictions to cancel events, even if it's not in the interest of individuals to skip them.

Interestingly, RIT has not cancelled classes yet, although there's been a lot of contingency planning about what we'd do if we had to.  Given that we have a lot of online courses already (like mine), we're probably better suited to pull it off than most universities.

So far I've not seen any health authorities from this part of Upstate NY saying anything about fans not being allowed at sporting events.

As an example, Colgate is still holding the Patriot League Basketball Championship game tonight and my concert in Albany is still on for tonight. Sadly we can't go. I've put my tickets up on StubHub, but if anyone here wants Zappa tickets, you can have them for free. Get in touch.

No sadly all that is going on is not based upon science, or sometimes maybe not even rational thinking.

College basketball looks to be going on and pro sports are competing in arenas.

They've closed their locker rooms to protect their players. But I guess they don't feel the need to close the stands to protect their fans. I wonder why?????

No I don't think most of these decisions are from health authorities, rather we're seeing a herd effect.

As far as our NCAA games, I don't see how they can close them, if they don't first close basketball. But we do know which end calls the shots.

Just got an email from Tickets about my refund. They are giving back $6/ticket, which seems low, but I'll have to look at my season ticket prices.

Some teams get fans, some don't. The life has been sucked out of the season. I'm on board with just cancelling the season at this point and declaring the team currently #1 the National Champ.

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

For how much are the players selling the guest passes?

Quote from: ithacatSome teams get fans, some don't. The life has been sucked out of the season. I'm on board with just cancelling the season at this point and declaring the team currently #1 the National Champ.

#1 in the polls or #1 in the pairwise?

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: ithacatSome teams get fans, some don't. The life has been sucked out of the season. I'm on board with just cancelling the season at this point and declaring the team currently #1 the National Champ.

#1 in the polls or #1 in the pairwise?

One game to rule them all.

Quote from: Jim Hylaif anyone here wants Zappa tickets, you can have them for free

If anyone here wants Zappa tickets you're about 27 years too late.  :-/

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

For how much are the players selling the guest passes?

It shouldn't be decided by price.  Instead, it should be decided based on commitment; there should be some sort of line that is formed and maybe a camp-out to see how long people are willing to stick around.

You all laughed at me for making a costume that looked like a wooden bench at Lynah, but this Friday when I'm the only one who will be able to sneak in and watch the ECAC QFs, who'll be laughing now, huh?!?!

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

For how much are the players selling the guest passes?

It shouldn't be decided by price.  Instead, it should be decided based on commitment; there should be some sort of line that is formed and maybe a camp-out to see how long people are willing to stick around.

Oldest ticket stub.  I have one from 1981.  Jim may have one chiseled from marble.

Quote from: French RageYou all laughed at me for making a costume that looked like a wooden bench at Lynah, but this Friday when I'm the only one who will be able to sneak in and watch the ECAC QFs, who'll be laughing now, huh?!?!

I've seen some of the parents.  We'll be the ones laughing when they sit on you.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

For how much are the players selling the guest passes?

It shouldn't be decided by price.  Instead, it should be decided based on commitment; there should be some sort of line that is formed and maybe a camp-out to see how long people are willing to stick around.

Oldest ticket stub.  I have one from 1981.  Jim may have one chiseled from marble.

I probably have one from '78.  I wasn't planning on coming to the games this weekend, so I'll sell it to the highest bidder!

Quote from: toddloseWell at least our guys will know what it feels like this weekend if they went to Harvard instead. Actually, any of the ECAC teams that played last weekend by crowd sizes I saw on tv.

 (https://www.ithacajournal.com/story/sports/college/2020/03/10/cornell-mens-hockey-frozen-four-ncaa-lynah-ithaca/4957030002/)

Quote from: Ithaca Journal"Our guys will not experience anything crazier than Lynah Rink, they'll never face a bigger venue than Madison Square Garden, they won't face any more distractions than Las Vegas," said head coach Mike Schafer, referencing two of his team's road trips this season.

[/url]

But are they prepared for an absolutely silent Lynah Rink? Does the team practice Zen meditation?

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: toddloseWell at least our guys will know what it feels like this weekend if they went to Harvard instead. Actually, any of the ECAC teams that played last weekend by crowd sizes I saw on tv.

 (https://www.ithacajournal.com/story/sports/college/2020/03/10/cornell-mens-hockey-frozen-four-ncaa-lynah-ithaca/4957030002/)

Quote from: Ithaca Journal"Our guys will not experience anything crazier than Lynah Rink, they'll never face a bigger venue than Madison Square Garden, they won't face any more distractions than Las Vegas," said head coach Mike Schafer, referencing two of his team's road trips this season.

[/url]

But are they prepared for an absolutely silent Lynah Rink?

They've played at Brown.

I think if the only people allowed in the barn were the parents that would be incredibly sweet and maybe make them play even harder.  Imagine a whole game that was just a gift to your mom and dad.

Or the players on the bench can learn some cheers!

Suggest Those who dismiss the severity and risk of coronavirus in hockey arenas or in general read Poe's "The Masque of the Red Death".

Quote from: osorojoSuggest Those who dismiss the severity and risk of coronavirus in hockey arenas or in general read Poe's "The Masque of the Red Death".

Quote from: billhowardWho'd want to sit next to a fan coming in from New Rochelle?

For some of the altacockers (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=altacocker) on this list it's been so long since Cornell has won a major nation championship, that if we were confident Cornell is going to do it this year, we'd gladly do it, and if need be die happily.

And with 3 teams ranked in the top 2 of their sport the odds are as good as they've ever been.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: osorojoSuggest Those who dismiss the severity and risk of coronavirus in hockey arenas or in general read Poe's "The Masque of the Red Death".

Quote from: billhowardWho'd want to sit next to a fan coming in from New Rochelle?

For some of the altacockers (https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=altacocker) on this list it's been so long since Cornell has won a major nation championship, that if we were confident Cornell is going to do it this year, we'd gladly do it, and if need be die happily.

And with 3 teams ranked in the top 2 of their sport the odds are as good as they've ever been.

+1 for the use of "alte cockers!"

ECAC tickets were $15 a piece from what i can gather.

Uh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

Really really hoping that we just make it to no spectators and go from there. Cancelling the remainder of the season would be so brutal for these teams.

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

The secret is just to be the last to forfeit, then you don't have to!

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

Yeah, and WHO officially calling this a global pandemic today is not going to help.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

Yeah, and WHO officially calling this a global pandemic today is not going to help.

While we'd all miss going to the games, they should do what Ivy basketball did and award the title to the regular season champion.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: French Rage

Quote from: scoop85Here's Pollack's notification to the Cornell community (https://statements.cornell.edu/2020/20200310-coronavirus-update.cfm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf).  Interestingly it doesn't say all athletic events will be cancelled, but rather that each member will be strictly limited to 3 guests per participant. So maybe there's a little hope that the games can continue.

So how do we expand the hockey roster to roughly 1000 players?

For how much are the players selling the guest passes?

It shouldn't be decided by price.  Instead, it should be decided based on commitment; there should be some sort of line that is formed and maybe a camp-out to see how long people are willing to stick around.

Oldest ticket stub.  I have one from 1981.  Jim may have one chiseled from marble.

I have half a ticket from the early 70's (vs Brown with the winning score in pen on the back). No Zappa tickets.

https://twitter.com/Ugarles/status/1237815974277124099

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

"Sucks",  sucks.

Quote from: marty

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

"Sucks",  sucks.

Even before logging in, and having seen no other news that past 90 minutes, I had an inkling that we were going to see the end of our sports seasons.  Just too many schools going to online only classes, and I'd heard Harvard was going to cancel their sports seasons. Trutfully hen Amherst and then the rest of the NESCAC started shutting down yesterday, it seemed only a matter of time.

If the remaining hockey season is cancelled, any chance players can get that year of eligibility back?

For the record, the Ivy League statement said individual institutions will get to decide on Winter sports seasons. Given how near the end is for both the Men's and Women's teams and assuming the NCAA still has the event in some fashion (whether it's in front of empty stadiums, etc.), I very much doubt we'll make the move to end those seasons.

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: semsoxUh oh...

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1237809478776610823

This isn't going to end well. Once one domino falls...

Holy.  Shit.

Quote from: semsoxFor the record, the Ivy League statement said individual institutions will get to decide on Winter sports seasons. Given how near the end is for both the Men's and Women's teams and assuming the NCAA still has the event in some fashion (whether it's in front of empty stadiums, etc.), I very much doubt we'll make the move to end those seasons.

I really wouldn't be counting on anything at this point.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: semsoxFor the record, the Ivy League statement said individual institutions will get to decide on Winter sports seasons. Given how near the end is for both the Men's and Women's teams and assuming the NCAA still has the event in some fashion (whether it's in front of empty stadiums, etc.), I very much doubt we'll make the move to end those seasons.

I really wouldn't be counting on anything at this point.

Except uncertainty  ::demented::

It occurs to me that with Harvard out they should reseed.

7 Yale at 4 RPI
8 Colgate at 3 Quinnipiac
11 Princeton at 2 Clarkson
1 Cornell bye

Quote from: TrotskyIt occurs to me that with Harvard out they should reseed.

7 Yale at 4 RPI
8 Colgate at 3 Quinnipiac
11 Princeton at 2 Clarkson
1 Cornell bye

interesting. less hockey before it all goes away but interesting.

NCAA is recommending everything be played in empty arenas with skeleton staff https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/statement-ncaa-covid-19-advisory-panel-ncaa-events

Quote from: ugarteNCAA is recommending everything be played in empty arenas with skeleton staff https://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/statement-ncaa-covid-19-advisory-panel-ncaa-events

Ah, shit.

lets just hope they keep playing

Quote from: upprdecklets just hope they keep playing

This is where I'm at. I'm all for drastic measures, and I think barring fans is the right move.

But playing the games in front of an empty crowd seems low risk enough.

can you really think that the kids are more at risk playing than sitting around? if they play in empty arenas is that more of an issue than going to the grocery store?

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: upprdecklets just hope they keep playing

This is where I'm at. I'm all for drastic measures, and I think barring fans is the right move.

But playing the games in front of an empty crowd seems low risk enough.

Yeah at this point I'd come to peace with not being there in person, but I still want there to be games.

Quote from: Jim HylaJust got an email from Tickets about my refund. They are giving back $6/ticket, which seems low, but I'll have to look at my season ticket prices.

Our local newspaper tries a similar stunt (if your newspaper is not delivered)...   They offer up a $.058 refund for a Sunday newspaper that costs $3 on the newstand.   Thieves!!   When I object and point out that I paid $3 for a replacement newspaper AND, that the newspaper is probably actually worth far less, they will cough up the full $3 refund.   I guess you can't hate them for trying (to screw me).

i am still trying to find anything that says how much the ecac tickets really cost.. But I know the tickets were not $6 this week

Quote from: upprdeckcan you really think that the kids are more at risk playing than sitting around? if they play in empty arenas is that more of an issue than going to the grocery store?

+1

Just got this email.

WEAR YOUR RED FOR PLAYOFF WEEKEND!

MARCH 13TH - 15TH

Help us make Lynah Rink a "C" of Red for the HOME PLAYOFF games
We want ALL in attendance wearing RED.
Please wear a RED Cornell hockey jersey, a RED sweatshirt, a RED jacket or anything RED to show your team spirit and support our team!
#YellCornell

Mike Schafer
mcs14@cornell.edu
607-327-1069

Martha's email to campus would imply life goes on as normal until break and thats after hockey gets thru to the end of the ECAC so Cornell should at least finish that much.   After that things may be worse or better and re-address.

Quote from: Jim HylaJust got this email.

WEAR YOUR RED FOR PLAYOFF WEEKEND!

MARCH 13TH - 15TH

Help us make Lynah Rink a "C" of Red for the HOME PLAYOFF games
We want ALL in attendance wearing RED.
Please wear a RED Cornell hockey jersey, a RED sweatshirt, a RED jacket or anything RED to show your team spirit and support our team!
#YellCornell

Mike Schafer
mcs14@cornell.edu
607-327-1069

Yeah, I received that too. Guessing someone pre-scheduled the delivery of those and forgot they had done that.

Nothing like rubbing some salt in the wound...

Quote from: upprdecki am still trying to find anything that says how much the ecac tickets really cost.. But I know the tickets were not $6 this week

A friend of mine bought tix for Friday's game @ $20 each.   They told him that he will be refunded the full $20 per ticket.   It just doesn't seem right that season ticketholders would be refunded an amount so far below face-value.

I found my notes from last year and $6 was that refund too..  I just cant believe thats what we were really charged last summer when they came out but maybe.

Quote from: upprdeckI found my notes from last year and $6 was that refund too..  I just cant believe thats what we were really charged last summer when they came out but maybe.

Just because they got away with thievery last year, doesn't make it right THIS YEAR!   They're going to make a bundle on this game without allowing many people to see the game live.  That's a sin!

not sure how they are making money on the game if thats what they really charged though. And its not their money anyway.. None of the playoff money goes to Cornell.

Just saw on Huffington Post that the NCAA will play the Basketball tourney in closed houses (family and critical personnel only).  

I think we can assume there will be no more spectators at hockey games, either in LP or the NCAA's.

And no fans in regionals or FF: NCAA announcement (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-11/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-releases-statement-limiting)

Quote from: Chris H82And no fans in regionals or FF: NCAA announcement (https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2020-03-11/ncaa-president-mark-emmert-releases-statement-limiting)

Yeah, I read the statement after I posted.

Quote from: upprdecknot sure how they are making money on the game if thats what they really charged though. And its not their money anyway.. None of the playoff money goes to Cornell.

If it's $20 face-value ticket and they're refunding only $6 to the customer, SOMEBODY is making money!!!   And, I don't give a damn if it's Cornell or whomever.   It's being taken from the customer (we fans)!!  That's wrong!!

To be clear, this is common practice in many areas of business; both athletics & non-athletics.  It is a "screw you, customer, we're going to do it and we don't care if you like/dislike it!" mentality....  In some cases, I discontinue doing business with businesses that pull that crap..   I enjoy Cornell Hockey too much to do that.   I know pulling my business does not affect the business.  But, it removes my exposure to their thievery.   I prefer to do business with honorable business people... They are becoming harder to find.

but I cant find where we really paid $20 for it.  we could have gotten a deal.  the question is what was face value for all the regular tickets.

Quote from: redice

Quote from: upprdecknot sure how they are making money on the game if thats what they really charged though. And its not their money anyway.. None of the playoff money goes to Cornell.

If it's $20 face-value ticket and they're refunding only $6 to the customer, SOMEBODY is making money!!!   And, I don't give a damn if it's Cornell or whomever.   It's being taken from the customer (we fans)!!  That's wrong!!

To be clear, this is common practice in many areas of business; both athletics & non-athletics.  It is a "screw you, customer, we're going to do it and we don't care if you like/dislike it!" mentality....  In some cases, I discontinue doing business with businesses that pull that crap..   I enjoy Cornell Hockey too much to do that.   I know pulling my business does not affect the business.  But, it removes my exposure to their thievery.   I prefer to do business with honorable business people... They are becoming harder to find.

Jim can do the math.  It's a season ticket.  They are usually less than the cost of individual games.  If Cornell increases the price for the quarterfinals vs the rest of the games this doesn't change what a season ticket holder paid in September.

I am not saying we are not getting ripped off either... I just dont think its as simple as $20 vs $6.  Cornell could have charged us $10 and sent $6 to the ECAC for their cut months ago too and maybe thats what the ECAC sends them back..   The hard part is not really knowing since it seems to be hidden in the costs up front.   Have to try and remember if you can remove the ECAC package up front next yr so its easier to see. Or maybe in 2-3 yrs hen hockey starts up again.

Quote from: upprdeckI am not saying we are not getting ripped off either... I just dont think its as simple as $20 vs $6.  Cornell could have charged us $10 and sent $6 to the ECAC for their cut months ago too and maybe thats what the ECAC sends them back..   The hard part is not really knowing since it seems to be hidden in the costs up front.   Have to try and remember if you can remove the ECAC package up front next yr so its easier to see. Or maybe in 2-3 yrs hen hockey starts up again.

I agree that it'd not a simple $14 ripoff.  But, they ARE ripping us off and saying it's in the hands of someone else (ECACHL) doesn't make it more tolerable.  They need to make us whole.  It's only a few dollars for each of us.  But, for the whole crowd, somebody is making a bundle for providing NOTHING!!

Quote from: redice

Quote from: upprdeckI am not saying we are not getting ripped off either... I just dont think its as simple as $20 vs $6.  Cornell could have charged us $10 and sent $6 to the ECAC for their cut months ago too and maybe thats what the ECAC sends them back..   The hard part is not really knowing since it seems to be hidden in the costs up front.   Have to try and remember if you can remove the ECAC package up front next yr so its easier to see. Or maybe in 2-3 yrs hen hockey starts up again.

I agree that it'd not a simple $14 ripoff.  But, they ARE ripping us off and saying it's in the hands of someone else (ECACHL) doesn't make it more tolerable.  They need to make us whole.  It's only a few dollars for each of us.  But, for the whole crowd, somebody is making a bundle for providing NOTHING!!

I'm guessing the season tickets are no longer available with/without playoffs.  Back when that was the case, it was easy to tell what the differential cost of the playoff games was.

Quote from: Jim HylaJust got an email from Tickets about my refund. They are giving back $6/ticket, which seems low, but I'll have to look at my season ticket prices.

Löwen Frankfurt are offering a deal where playoff tickets can be replaced with the same tickets to the first two games next season, and we get a commemorative t-shirt (which they were going to sell for 5€ at the games) for free.  Notwithstanding the price difference between playoff and regular season tickets, I don't know if we'll be here in the fall, or if the first two RS games will fit our schedule (we can basically only blow the kiddo's bedtime for Friday night games), so I'll go for the refund.  But I may still buy the t-shirt for the playoffs that weren't.

Obviously we're all praying that winter sports will be allowed to continue through the championships until early April. But it looks like we're going to have to watch the games on TV unless (a) as individuals we can score guest passes or (b) they develop a vaccine.

So this brings up the logical next question, will TV crews be allowed in to televise the games? And if they are, do they have to wear hazmat suits?

Quote from: redice

Quote from: upprdecki am still trying to find anything that says how much the ecac tickets really cost.. But I know the tickets were not $6 this week

A friend of mine bought tix for Friday's game @ $20 each.   They told him that he will be refunded the full $20 per ticket.   It just doesn't seem right that season ticketholders would be refunded an amount so far below face-value.

do you pay full single-game price for a season ticket? if not, it's not entirely unreasonable to refund less than the single-game price for a voided playoff ticket.

Per CHN (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/11_Yale-Joins-Harvard-in-Withdrawing.php): The ECAC will reseed, and with Yale following Harvard's lead, top-seeded Cornell and No. 2 Clarkson will have byes to the semifinals. The league still plans to allow fans into 1980 Olympic Arena, but the report rightly notes that "it's a fluid situation changing very rapidly."

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: redice

Quote from: upprdecki am still trying to find anything that says how much the ecac tickets really cost.. But I know the tickets were not $6 this week

A friend of mine bought tix for Friday's game @ $20 each.   They told him that he will be refunded the full $20 per ticket.   It just doesn't seem right that season ticketholders would be refunded an amount so far below face-value.

do you pay full single-game price for a season ticket? if not, it's not entirely unreasonable to refund less than the single-game price for a voided playoff ticket.

The issue with this sort of thing is that usually there's a discounted price per game for a season ticket, but all games are not equal. If all games were equal, then divide the price of a season's ticket by the number of games, and you have the per-game price. But two problems arise. (1) Clearly a playoff game has greater value than most ordinary in-season games. If this is reflected in the per-game pricing, then the refund value of a playoff game for a season ticket holder should be proportionate to the price of an individual playoff ticket compared to that of an ordinary game.

But (2) makes this much more complicated. (2) At the beginning of the season there's no guarantee the team will be playing in the playoffs, particularly at home. So the fact that a season ticket includes home playoff games, if any, involves a gamble.

I'm sure jtw can figure out an equitable way to place a value on the gamble, but unfortunately Cornell's Athletic Department cannot. Besides, who ever heard of the house giving even odds on a gamble?

Quote from: SwampyI'm sure jtw can figure out an equitable way to place a value on the gamble, but unfortunately Cornell's Athletic Department cannot. Besides, who ever heard of the house giving even odds on a gamble?

my formula for the "fair" "value" of a playoff ticket to a season ticketholder is this:

(season ticket price - (single-game price x regular season games)) / number of playoff games

there are more generous formulations but that is minimum fairness

Quote from: kingpin248Per CHN (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/11_Yale-Joins-Harvard-in-Withdrawing.php): The ECAC will reseed, and with Yale following Harvard's lead, top-seeded Cornell and No. 2 Clarkson will have byes to the semifinals. The league still plans to allow fans into 1980 Olympic Arena, but the report rightly notes that "it's a fluid situation changing very rapidly."

Interesting development and probably the right approach to this. Assuming LP happens (and as we have seen that may be a big if) our guys will have a lot of time off.

so did yale just give up on the bball team as well and harvard .dang maybe cornell can make it if a few more give up

Quote from: kingpin248Per CHN (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/11_Yale-Joins-Harvard-in-Withdrawing.php): The ECAC will reseed, and with Yale following Harvard's lead, top-seeded Cornell and No. 2 Clarkson will have byes to the semifinals. The league still plans to allow fans into 1980 Olympic Arena, but the report rightly notes that "it's a fluid situation changing very rapidly."

Shit! ::pain::

I woke up this morning looking forward to watching four high-level Cornell games this coming weekend. Now, I'm down to one!

Maybe a silver lining will be that everyone who would ordinarily view or attend the men's hockey games and/or lacrosse match but skip the women's game will now view the women's NC$$ quarterfinal at 2 PM this Saturday.

It is going to be televised, isn't it? Somebody please tell me "Yes." ::cry::

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: kingpin248Per CHN (https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2020/03/11_Yale-Joins-Harvard-in-Withdrawing.php): The ECAC will reseed, and with Yale following Harvard's lead, top-seeded Cornell and No. 2 Clarkson will have byes to the semifinals. The league still plans to allow fans into 1980 Olympic Arena, but the report rightly notes that "it's a fluid situation changing very rapidly."

Shit! ::pain::

I woke up this morning looking forward to watching four high-level Cornell games this coming weekend. Now, I'm down to one!

Maybe a silver lining will be that everyone who would ordinarily view or attend the men's hockey games and/or lacrosse match but skip the women's game will now view the women's NC$$ quarterfinal at 2 PM this Saturday.

It is going to be televised, isn't it? Somebody please tell me "Yes." ::cry::

Yes, there's a link on the Cornell Women's thread.

So the NBA season is now suspended after Rudy Gobert of the Jazz tested positive for the virus (why he was tested I have no idea, since he said he was feeling well enough to play). Hard to see any sports events going forward at this point.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: redice

Quote from: upprdecki am still trying to find anything that says how much the ecac tickets really cost.. But I know the tickets were not $6 this week

A friend of mine bought tix for Friday's game @ $20 each.   They told him that he will be refunded the full $20 per ticket.   It just doesn't seem right that season ticketholders would be refunded an amount so far below face-value.

do you pay full single-game price for a season ticket? if not, it's not entirely unreasonable to refund less than the single-game price for a voided playoff ticket.

That's obvious.   But, I'm pretty sure I didn't pay just $6 per ticket for the playoff ticket.  There's an inequity here.  That's my point!

Wormer dropped the Big One. (https://www.uscho.com/2020/03/11/frozen-four-will-be-played-as-planned-but-spectators-not-allowed-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak/)  Only a matter of time til Lake Placid does it.

NBA suspends season.  Not sure if MLB will cancel Spring Training.

Quote from: TrotskyWormer dropped the Big One. (https://www.uscho.com/2020/03/11/frozen-four-will-be-played-as-planned-but-spectators-not-allowed-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak/)  Only a matter of time til Lake Placid does it.

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

Quote from: andyw2100Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

I figure they have to give partial refunds on housing. As to tuition itself, they're probably safe but who knows.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: andyw2100Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

I figure they have to give partial refunds on housing. As to tuition itself, they're probably safe but who knows.

Was just reading an article in the NYT about that.  A bigger issue is foreign students whose student visas don't allow them to take online classes.

Not sure I agree that reseeding the ecacs is good for us.

-we'll be off for three weeks by the time the ecac semi rolls around.  That's an awful lot of rust to shake off before game time in LP.

-wonder what the pwr implications are from not playing the extra two games.  We are so close to the #2 spot would 2 more wins be enough to nudge us up in rpi? Or would they not help since Princeton is such a bad team?

Then again, probably much more pwr downside from the tiny chance we drop a game than from the quick sweep?

Quote from: scoop85So the NBA season is now suspended after Rudy Gobert of the Jazz tested positive for the virus (why he was tested I have no idea, since he said he was feeling well enough to play). Hard to see any sports events going forward at this point.

I suppose if no player/coach in the sport has caught it yet, there's a chance it goes on.  But the NBA certainly is going to set a precedent that if anyone close to it comes down with the virus that the hammer will come down.

Quote from: abmarksNot sure I agree that reseeding the ecacs is good for us.

-we'll be off for three weeks by the time the ecac semi rolls around.  That's an awful lot of rust to shake off before game time in LP.

-wonder what the pwr implications are from not playing the extra two games.  We are so close to the #2 spot would 2 more wins be enough to nudge us up in rpi? Or would they not help since Princeton is such a bad team?

Then again, probably much more pwr downside from the tiny chance we drop a game than from the quick sweep?

I have to figure there's some, but very little, upside to winning in the pairwise. And if we lose, it'd hurt bad.

I'm worried about the rust. I'm more worried about whether we play the rest of the season. And I'm even more worried about getting through this damned thing while minimizing the crisis.

But the rust, too.

The pep band has been told they are done for the year FWIW.

Someone asked if it's any more dangerous for the players to play a game vs going to the supermarket and so far everyone responding to that agreed it's the same risk.   But that's nonsense. You get the virus via eyes, nose, or mouth and it's transmitted in mucus though not sweat, right?

So what's higher risk-waiting in line at the grocery store or grinding for the puck on the boards with one or more opponents in the middle of the third period? It's got to be that the game is much higher risk and with those close quarters like that.

Though if I were a player that used a wire cage, I'd be swapping for the clear shield asap since itd block far more flying bits of stuff.

Also, arguably the risk isn't in playing a game.  Isn't there way more close contact and equipment sharing in the locker room or weight room every day during practices than you'd get in a game?   Just look how common it is for teams to have a bunch of people go down with the flu once one guy gets it.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: andyw2100Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

I figure they have to give partial refunds on housing. As to tuition itself, they're probably safe but who knows.

I'm assuming most affected organizations have business interruption insurance like what kicked in after Katrina. But I wonder if this will sink the insurance companies with everyone filling claims everywhere all at once.

Quote from: jtwcornell91

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: andyw2100Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

I figure they have to give partial refunds on housing. As to tuition itself, they're probably safe but who knows.

I'm assuming most affected organizations have business interruption insurance like what kicked in after Katrina. But I wonder if this will sink the insurance companies with everyone filling claims everywhere all at once.

what are you even talking about? Insurance won't pay tips to waiters, wages to cooks and taxi/uber drivers. Won't pay shit to nobody that needs it.

Quote from: jtwcornell91

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: andyw2100Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

I figure they have to give partial refunds on housing. As to tuition itself, they're probably safe but who knows.

I'm assuming most affected organizations have business interruption insurance like what kicked in after Katrina. But I wonder if this will sink the insurance companies with everyone filling claims everywhere all at once.

My agent said our business interruption insurance won't cover us for this type of situation. I need to review our policy carefullly.

Another cancellation, Friday's Coach's Club Luncheon. The reason, CU won't allow a luncheon of more than 100 people, which usually happens.

So rather than limit it to the first 98, they cancel it?

Quote from: scoop85

Quote from: jtwcornell91

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: andyw2100Lots of discussion about $6 refunds on $20 (or close to it) tickets. But let's look at the big numbers / big issues as they apply not only to Cornell but to all the schools that are canceling "in-person" classes and sending the students home. Will the schools be issuing partial tuition refunds? The students did not pay for "distance learning." It doesn't seem at all fair to charge as much for that type of education as for what the student expected when the tuition was paid. What about housing? Are the schools going to issue partial refunds on housing, meal plans, etc.

There is some serious money at stake here.

I figure they have to give partial refunds on housing. As to tuition itself, they're probably safe but who knows.

I'm assuming most affected organizations have business interruption insurance like what kicked in after Katrina. But I wonder if this will sink the insurance companies with everyone filling claims everywhere all at once.

My agent said our business interruption insurance won't cover us for this type of situation. I need to review our policy carefullly.

I've read most insurance companies won't cover pandemics. You need to buy that separately. Not too shocking to me after years of dealing with them as a business owner.

So can Kaldis still set the games played record?

Ever since the Coach induced flop in the 73 Semi's I have been waiting for an opportunity to cheer the Red on In Person at the Frozen Four.
This was to be the year.  fly to Detroit city, sit in the Arena ON THE GODAMN GLASS NO LESS, and whoop it up.
But NOOOO
Do not Fly up from south Florida, do not enter the arena, and hope like hell that the NCAA refunds my money in a timely fashion.

SIGH
TWS, ILR '74

Quote from: abmarksThe pep band has been told they are done for the year FWIW.

Someone asked if it's any more dangerous for the players to play a game vs going to the supermarket and so far everyone responding to that agreed it's the same risk.   But that's nonsense. You get the virus via eyes, nose, or mouth and it's transmitted in mucus though not sweat, right?

So what's higher risk-waiting in line at the grocery store or grinding for the puck on the boards with one or more opponents in the middle of the third period? It's got to be that the game is much higher risk and with those close quarters like that.

Though if I were a player that used a wire cage, I'd be swapping for the clear shield asap since itd block far more flying bits of stuff.

Also, arguably the risk isn't in playing a game.  Isn't there way more close contact and equipment sharing in the locker room or weight room every day during practices than you'd get in a game?   Just look how common it is for teams to have a bunch of people go down with the flu once one guy gets it.

Your analogy is faulty. If they could ban going to the grocery store too, they would.

And the issue is not primarily the risk to the players. Instead, it's the risk they transmit it to others outside the team. Of course, in a contact sport, with both teammates and opponents, the transmission probability is higher than that of grocery shopping, except perhaps for  cucumbers (https://youtu.be/p9ZjOCSLYlc)

Besides limiting the overall number of cases, it's important to slow the rate at which the disease is transmitted. This is because our medical system can't handle its current case load PLUS the additional load from the pandemic unless the latter is slowed. Part of Italy's problem is its geographic lack of capacity relative to need.

Quote from: cufanEver since the Coach induced flop in the 73 Semi's I have been waiting for an opportunity to cheer the Red on In Person at the Frozen Four.
This was to be the year.  fly to Detroit city, sit in the Arena ON THE GODAMN GLASS NO LESS, and whoop it up.
But NOOOO
Do not Fly up from south Florida, do not enter the arena, and hope like hell that the NCAA refunds my money in a timely fashion.

SIGH
TWS, ILR '74

That's the next question:  How much of our money does the greedy NC$$ refund?   I'm betting that it won't be 100% of what I sent to them!!::asshole::

Quote from: nshapiroSo can Kaldis still set the games played record?

Assuming nothing else gets cancelled, the Big Red has a maximum of 6 games left (2 LP, 4 NCAA).  So yes.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: abmarksThe pep band has been told they are done for the year FWIW.

Someone asked if it's any more dangerous for the players to play a game vs going to the supermarket and so far everyone responding to that agreed it's the same risk.   But that's nonsense. You get the virus via eyes, nose, or mouth and it's transmitted in mucus though not sweat, right?

So what's higher risk-waiting in line at the grocery store or grinding for the puck on the boards with one or more opponents in the middle of the third period? It's got to be that the game is much higher risk and with those close quarters like that.

Though if I were a player that used a wire cage, I'd be swapping for the clear shield asap since itd block far more flying bits of stuff.

Also, arguably the risk isn't in playing a game.  Isn't there way more close contact and equipment sharing in the locker room or weight room every day during practices than you'd get in a game?   Just look how common it is for teams to have a bunch of people go down with the flu once one guy gets it.

Your analogy is faulty. If they could ban going to the grocery store too, they would.

And the issue is not primarily the risk to the players. Instead, it's the risk they transmit it to others outside the team. Of course, in a contact sport, with both teammates and opponents, the transmission probability is higher than that of grocery shopping, except perhaps for  cucumbers (https://youtu.be/p9ZjOCSLYlc)

Besides limiting the overall number of cases, it's important to slow the rate at which the disease is transmitted. This is because our medical system can't handle its current case load PLUS the additional load from the pandemic unless the latter is slowed. Part of Italy's problem is its geographic lack of capacity relative to need.

Swampy- pretty sure my post supports your argument in the first place.

It's not my analogy.  I was responding to others and pointing out that, regardless of the grocery store risk level, playing a game is worse, and not just because of the single game, but because the leadup to the game requires all those practice sessions.

You're correct that transmission is the real issue. But the argument is the same whether you're talking about risk of players being exposed to the virus or the players becoming transmitters.  

Playing the games at all will make the players more likely to be both patients and transmitters.

Quote from: abmarksPlaying the games at all will make the players more likely to be both patients and transmitters.

Hey!  Ixne on the actsfe.

It appears that controlling your environment: the people you encounter, the duration of your encounter, and the distance of your encounter - are the critical factors in transmission of the coronavirus. These are factors for which statisticians can provide credible and useful information for hockey playoff schedulers (?!!) and hockey fans.

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: abmarksThe pep band has been told they are done for the year FWIW.

Someone asked if it's any more dangerous for the players to play a game vs going to the supermarket and so far everyone responding to that agreed it's the same risk.   But that's nonsense. You get the virus via eyes, nose, or mouth and it's transmitted in mucus though not sweat, right?

So what's higher risk-waiting in line at the grocery store or grinding for the puck on the boards with one or more opponents in the middle of the third period? It's got to be that the game is much higher risk and with those close quarters like that.

Though if I were a player that used a wire cage, I'd be swapping for the clear shield asap since itd block far more flying bits of stuff.

Also, arguably the risk isn't in playing a game.  Isn't there way more close contact and equipment sharing in the locker room or weight room every day during practices than you'd get in a game?   Just look how common it is for teams to have a bunch of people go down with the flu once one guy gets it.

Your analogy is faulty. If they could ban going to the grocery store too, they would.

And the issue is not primarily the risk to the players. Instead, it's the risk they transmit it to others outside the team. Of course, in a contact sport, with both teammates and opponents, the transmission probability is higher than that of grocery shopping, except perhaps for  cucumbers (https://youtu.be/p9ZjOCSLYlc)

Besides limiting the overall number of cases, it's important to slow the rate at which the disease is transmitted. This is because our medical system can't handle its current case load PLUS the additional load from the pandemic unless the latter is slowed. Part of Italy's problem is its geographic lack of capacity relative to need.

Swampy- pretty sure my post supports your argument in the first place.

It's not my analogy.  I was responding to others and pointing out that, regardless of the grocery store risk level, playing a game is worse, and not just because of the single game, but because the leadup to the game requires all those practice sessions.

You're correct that transmission is the real issue. But the argument is the same whether you're talking about risk of players being exposed to the virus or the players becoming transmitters.  

Playing the games at all will make the players more likely to be both patients and transmitters.

Doh. I found the disconnect between me and Swampy.  When I read a previous post somewhere way back in these discussions I took the question about  "playing a game and going to the grocery store" in a different way.

Pretty sure Swampy, if not most on here would have looked through the lens of the fans... and arguing the relative dangers of grocery shopping and in person game attendance.

 I read "playing a game and going to the grocery store" as referring to the risks to the players of playing vs. risk to the players from their regular grocery shooping.

As I understand it, one of the reasons to cancel spring sports like lax was that you'd be having all those  practices every day which gather all the players together as well as require coaches and support staff to come in close contact.  And by extension, if we're practicing then obviously the student athletes are still concentrated on or near campus at a time when the universities are trying to empty campuses by sending students home.

So I was thinking about the risks specifically to players that might result from continuing their seasons, vs. the risk those players face from going to the grocery store (which they'd be doing regularly whether they are playing hockey or not.)

Quote from: osorojoIt appears that controlling your environment: the people you encounter, the duration of your encounter, and the distance of your encounter - are the critical factors in transmission of the coronavirus. These are factors for which statisticians can provide credible and useful information for hockey playoff schedulers (?!!) and hockey fans.

Real men use the eyeball test for epidemiology.

https://twitter.com/chnews/status/1238143075538567172

Quote from: osorojoIt appears that controlling your environment: the people you encounter, the duration of your encounter, and the distance of your encounter - are the critical factors in transmission of the coronavirus. These are factors for which statisticians can provide credible and useful information for hockey playoff schedulers (?!!) and hockey fans.

Pretty sure that epidemiologists and CDC etc are doing just that to the extent that we know things.  But since it's a new virus, what we don't know yet dwarfs what we do know since, especially in the states, we are woefully behind in getting people tested.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: abmarksPlaying the games at all will make the players more likely to be both patients and transmitters.

Hey!  Ixne on the actsfe.

Normally I would lol.  But the last 48 hours have been a head-turner.  The frozen four is 30 days out and with how wide this likely spreads in that time, I'm starting to bet against it getting played. Once one D1 bball player tests positive, or for sure if a D1 hockey player tests positive, my money is on the remainder of any tournaments being cancelled.

Look at it this way.  Come to terms now with the tourneys getting a washout, and if by some miracle the NC game gets played, just think how much more exciting it'll be then the other way 'round.    (To polish that turd if at all possible).

A 2-loss season and finishing with a 9-game wining streak wouldn't be bad.

But man this would be disappointing.

Yes, it's the prudent thing to do.

Stupid prudence.

and maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

Quote from: TrotskyA 2-loss season and finishing with a 9-game wining streak wouldn't be bad.

But man this would be disappointing.

Yes, it's the prudent thing to do.

Stupid prudence.

+1

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

How about a two day tournament with the top four in the pairwise?

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

How about a two day tournament with the top four in the pairwise?

fine by me, just make sure Barron hasn't signed w the Rangers before that

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

How about a two day tournament with the top four in the pairwise?

And we're now in the "bargaining" phase of grief.

Quote from: underskill

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

How about a two day tournament with the top four in the pairwise?

fine by me, just make sure Barron hasn't signed w the Rangers before that

You're assuming NHL season continues....

Quote from: KenP

Quote from: underskill

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

How about a two day tournament with the top four in the pairwise?

fine by me, just make sure Barron hasn't signed w the Rangers before that

You're assuming NHL season continues....

NHL suspended. ECAC tournament canceled. Only NCAAS holding out at the moment....

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

And before someone says the pairwise, that's only a formula designed specifically for picking and seeding the tournament, not for determining who people feel is the best team.  For that, you have to go to the polls!

(We all buying this?)

The NHL officially "pauses" their season, leaving the door open to potentially resume and complete the playoffs later this spring:
https://twitter.com/PR_NHL/status/1238156578731294721/photo/1

I just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

I don't know why nobody here has stated the obvious...the corona virus is an evil plot created to insure that Cornell never again wins a national championship.  It is the only logical explanation.

Quote from: nshapiroI don't know why nobody here has stated the obvious...the corona virus is an evil plot created to insure that Cornell never again wins a national championship.  It is the only logical explanation.

It goes without saying.

Hockey East Tournament cancelled

https://www.si.com/college/bostoncollege/hockey/hockey-east-tournament-cancelled-coronavirus

Duke and Kansas pulling out of March Madness which will kill March Madness.  

That'll be a wrap on Cornell's hockey season.

Wasn't Allentown's entire economy depending on this?

Quote from: TrotskyWasn't Allentown's entire economy depending on this?

Judging by the usual heavy traffic on Rte. 22 right now, no.

The only fair solution is to award the 2020 National Championship to the 1970 Cornell hockey team.

Quote from: TrotskyA 2-loss season and finishing with a 9-game wining streak wouldn't be bad.

With the last game being just about the most complete 60 minutes of quality play/all-out effort from Cornell that I can recall from recent memory.

(Looking for the silver lining...)

Quote from: JasonN95

Quote from: TrotskyA 2-loss season and finishing with a 9-game wining streak wouldn't be bad.

With the last game being just about the most complete 60 minutes of quality play/all-out effort from Cornell that I can recall from recent memory.

(Looking for the silver lining...)

We know who the ECAC champion is.

Quote from: TrotskyThe only fair solution is to award the 2020 National Championship to the 1970 Cornell hockey team.

Will Ken Dryden accept the trophy? ::whistle::

Quote from: ursusminor

Quote from: TrotskyThe only fair solution is to award the 2020 National Championship to the 1970 Cornell hockey team.

Will Ken Dryden accept the trophy? ::whistle::

B-] Who the hell has that belt anyway.  I haven't the mental energy to look elsewhere.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: JasonN95

Quote from: TrotskyA 2-loss season and finishing with a 9-game wining streak wouldn't be bad.

With the last game being just about the most complete 60 minutes of quality play/all-out effort from Cornell that I can recall from recent memory.

(Looking for the silver lining...)

We know who the ECAC champion is.

My serious post: The current situation reminds me of those record books that have asterisks by the years for WWII.

My gallows humor post:

     Goddamnit! Yesterday I woke up looking forward to Cornell being a serious NC contender in 3 sports! That's never happened before.

     If only the f'n corona virus had waited until a season when our teams suck, like the fall.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: JasonN95

Quote from: TrotskyA 2-loss season and finishing with a 9-game wining streak wouldn't be bad.

With the last game being just about the most complete 60 minutes of quality play/all-out effort from Cornell that I can recall from recent memory.

(Looking for the silver lining...)

We know who the ECAC champion is.

My serious post: The current situation reminds me of those record books that have asterisks by the years for WWII.

My gallows humor post:

     Goddamnit! Yesterday I woke up looking forward to Cornell being a serious NC contender in 3 sports! That's never happened before.

     If only the f'n corona virus had waited until a season when our teams suck, like the fall.

Why couldn't this happen the year that Union was really good?!

Quote from: marty

Quote from: ursusminor

Quote from: TrotskyThe only fair solution is to award the 2020 National Championship to the 1970 Cornell hockey team.

Will Ken Dryden accept the trophy? ::whistle::

B-] Who the hell has that belt anyway.  I haven't the mental energy to look elsewhere.

Cornell holds the New York State Belt, the Ivy Belt, the ECAC Belt, and The Belt.

MLB suspends.

Jesus, people are gonna have to talk to each other.  ::bolt::

Quote from: SwampyThe current situation reminds me of those record books that have asterisks by the years for WWII.

(https://www.si.com/.image/t_share/MTY4MTA2ODU5Mjg1NTIxNjgx/stanley-cup-1919-influenzajpg.jpg)

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

Quote from: TrotskyMLB suspends.

Jesus, people are gonna have to talk to each other.  ::bolt::

Or post on hockey forum boards  ::popcorn::

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: underskilland maybe award the NC to the team that finished #1 in the polls...

How about a two day tournament with the top four in the pairwise?

Just send the captains of each team and Rochambeau for it, best of 7.

well fuck.

it's over. NCAA cancelled all winter sports championships.

https://twitter.com/NCAA/status/1238197201928667136

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You want facts etc, yet you don't cite your own.   Name them and/or stop trolling

Quote from: TrotskyMLB suspends.

Jesus, people are gonna have to talk to each other.  ::bolt::

Via Skype though?

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

And bearlover not only breaks the Mendoza line, he hits for the cycle

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

And bearlover not only breaks the Mendoza line, he hits for the cycle

It's a hockey board.  Stick to hockey metaphors.

Officially over.  Damn.

https://www.ncaa.com/live-updates/ncaa-cancels-remaining-winter-and-spring-championships-due-coronavirus-concerns?utm_campaign=hp-rr-links

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

And bearlover not only breaks the Mendoza line, he hits for the cycle

It's a hockey board.  Stick to hockey metaphors.

So you're saying he's moved up from the checking line to the top power play unit?

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

And bearlover not only breaks the Mendoza line, he hits for the cycle

It's a hockey board.  Stick to hockey metaphors.

So you're saying he's moved up from the checking line to the top power play unit?

I was thinking something along the lines of a Gordie Howe Hat Trick, but yours works better.  ::drunk::

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

And bearlover not only breaks the Mendoza line, he hits for the cycle

It's a hockey board.  Stick to hockey metaphors.

So you're saying he's moved up from the checking line to the top power play unit?

If I remember, Jeff Malott scored a hat trick late in his freshman year after not having scored all season. Maybe it's something like that?

A Gordie Howe hat trick then?

Woops, didn't see Jeff's post.  That's what I get for posting before finishing scrolling through the thread.

Quote from: TrotskyThe only fair solution is to award the 2020 National Championship to the 1970 Cornell hockey team.

+1

Yeah, but am I dumber than the guy who did NOTHING to deal with the coronavirus for three whole months, right up to a week ago?

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: abmarks

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: osorojoI just read a revered expert's proclamation from a week ago that the coronavirus is less virulent than the Asian Flu of some years back, and the college hockey playoffs during the Asian Flu epidemic went on uninterrupted. This proposed cancelation is sounding like a liberal con-job.

You are officially the dumbest poster on this forum. Even dumber than me.

And bearlover not only breaks the Mendoza line, he hits for the cycle

It's a hockey board.  Stick to hockey metaphors.

So you're saying he's moved up from the checking line to the top power play unit?

If I remember, Jeff Malott scored a hat trick late in his freshman year after not having scored all season. Maybe it's something like that?

I had a joke here, but it involved remembering how to spell "Jiri Kloubocek", so never mind.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: ithacatSome teams get fans, some don't. The life has been sucked out of the season. I'm on board with just cancelling the season at this point and declaring the team currently #1 the National Champ.

#1 in the polls or #1 in the pairwise?

Polls! Isn't that how it was done in the old days?

Quote from: TrotskyMLB suspends.
Jesus, people are gonna have to talk to each other.  ::bolt::

The guy down in the Village who owns an independent bookstore and brings his cat to work, believes there'll be a big uptick in bored people buying print books.

The pursuit of excellence is the motive for a love of sports. I detest attempts to digitize excellence in life, women or sports. Turn off your computers and watch the GAME! And when it's over don't digitalize it, chop it into little pieces, rearrange them, and spit them back out.

Quote from: osorojoThe pursuit of excellence is the motive for a love of sports. I detest attempts to digitize excellence in life, women or sports. Turn off your computers and watch the GAME! And when it's over don't digitalize it, chop it into little pieces, rearrange them, and spit them back out.

Alternative hypothesis: people who demand everyone think like they do are insecure unimaginative authoritarian fucktards.

Also.  "Women"?  Srsly?

"Turn off your computers!" he typed.

Quote from: osorojoTurn off your computers and watch the GAME!

Quote from: Trotsky"Turn off your computers!" he typed.

Also, with most college hockey games, if you turn off the computer, then you CAN'T watch the game.

Quote from: osorojoAnd when it's over don't digitalize it, chop it into little pieces, rearrange them, and spit them back out.

osorojo, you should know that Cornell hockey led the nation this year in scoring margin from the second half of the second period to the first third of the third period, on alternate Saturdays*, and as a Cornell fan, I'm damned proud of that.

* I've checked these stats carefully. (narrator voice: He hasn't.)

Proud? I'm pleased, not proud - since I had no influence upon this team to be proud of. I watched my first men's Cornell hockey game in Lynah Rink in 1959 and have followed the team closely ever since. I love the game, support the team and my alma mater, and rejoice when they excel. I'm old and cranky and don't appreciate multi-page attempts to turn athletic competition into a binary enterprise - not that it isn't!

Looks like 1 million is gonna be light. Announced cases have increased by a factor of 10 in one week since I said that. Most likely, actual cases are 100 times what's known. That gives us less than a week before we hit 1 million. Hope everyone is taking it seriously now. This all sucks. And yes, the federal government effed it up

Quote from: adamwLooks like 1 million is gonna be light. Announced cases have increased by a factor of 10 in one week since I said that. Most likely, actual cases are 100 times what's known. That gives us less than a week before we hit 1 million. Hope everyone is taking it seriously now. This all sucks. And yes, the federal government effed it up

If you want to be optimistic, if there are tons and tons of asymptomatic uninfected out there, maybe that means the percentages of people who get hit hard by this is a lot lower than we think.

That's not to downplay the threat. Everyone should stay safe and stay home as much as possible. We'll get back to hockey next year.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: adamwLooks like 1 million is gonna be light. Announced cases have increased by a factor of 10 in one week since I said that. Most likely, actual cases are 100 times what's known. That gives us less than a week before we hit 1 million. Hope everyone is taking it seriously now. This all sucks. And yes, the federal government effed it up

If you want to be optimistic, if there are tons and tons of asymptomatic uninfected out there, maybe that means the percentages of people who get hit hard by this is a lot lower than we think.

That's not to downplay the threat. Everyone should stay safe and stay home as much as possible. We'll get back to hockey next year.

Various articles I've read from statisticians and epidemiologists suggest that the percentage of asymptomatic cases is rather high, but clearly undercounted due to the testing shortages.  In fact, one article I read suggested that the transmission rate and the rate of asymptomaticity (if that's a word) are actually comparable to conventional flu.  Another said that genetically this virus is 80% identical to the original SARS and he expected that the rate of transmission would be comparable, i.e. not especially high.  However, a key difference is that the fatality rate was so high with that SARS, that it extinguished itself a lot faster than this one, where this one has such a high rate of asymptomaticity which allows a broader spread.

However, they're still suggesting that we continue "distancing" to reduce the contact between asymptomatic people and uninfected people in order to reduce the spread.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Various articles I've read from statisticians and epidemiologists suggest that the percentage of asymptomatic cases is rather high, but clearly

From what I've read here, mother effing statheads have ruined everything and must be cast into the rising oceans.

From the Smithsonian magazine a sobering article on the 1919 Stanley Cup:   "When the Stanley Cup Final Was Canceled Because of a Pandemic" (https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/when-stanley-cup-finals-was-cancelled-because-pandemic-180974439/?utm_source=pocket-newtab)

Yeah, that story has been in the news out here in Seattle.

still sadly doubling every couple of days.

Quote from: adamwstill sadly doubling every couple of days.

I've gotten over the worst sadness.  But expect April 11th to be another "down" day as I'll know in my heart that I'm missing an inevitable highlight of my life.  And, yes, the way this team was performing, I do think it was inevitable.  Now, it's just an impossible dream.

Quote from: redice

Quote from: adamwstill sadly doubling every couple of days.

I've gotten over the worst sadness.  But expect April 11th to be another "down" day as I'll know in my heart that I'm missing an inevitable highlight of my life.  And, yes, the way this team was performing, I do think it was inevitable.  Now, it's just an impossible dream.

I'm not sure about "inevitable" but no doubt it was about the best shot we've had since 2003

Quote from: adamwstill sadly doubling every couple of days.

But the country will be back on track by Easter. If only POTUS took the advice of Jared and Ivanka to open things for business by Passover (4/8), we could have gone straight from the end of the RS and some first round league playoffs ... to Detroit with teams 1-4 playing at Little Caesars.

Let's not do politics here, please.

Clearly the corona "Cornell - one" virus was engineered to stop the #1 ranked mens and womens hockey teams and mens lacrosse team from winning 3 national championships ...

I blame Harvard.

Quote from: billhoward

Quote from: adamwstill sadly doubling every couple of days.

But the country will be back on track by Easter. If only POTUS took the advice of Jared and Ivanka to open things for business by Passover (4/8), we could have gone straight from the end of the RS and some first round league playoffs ... to Detroit with teams 1-4 playing at Little Caesars.

Yeah. And if there's still no toilet paper, we can just eat matzot.

don't know what cornell's plan is but i hope they step up https://twitter.com/Sej_Singh/status/1243575072167809024

Ice rinks across the U.S.A., Canada, the World are closed today, and tomorrow, and . . . Current speculations, even those featuring pages of scores, shots, saves etc. have lost whatever relevance they might ever have had. How about some scientific, numerical predictions on the probability of ANY college hockey games next fall?

Quote from: osorojoIce rinks across the U.S.A., Canada, the World are closed today, and tomorrow, and . . . Current speculations, even those featuring pages of scores, shots, saves etc. have lost whatever relevance they might ever have had. How about some scientific, numerical predictions on the probability of ANY college hockey games next fall?

With fans? zero.

If colleges come up with solid plans for dealing with all of this, students can go back to school and there can be fanless events. But that will require organized leadership that I haven't seen.

We have no idea right now where we'll be next October.  Supposedly human trials for an (as yet non-existent) vaccine won't be complete for 6 months after it is created.  After that we'll need mass production and distribution.

I wouldn't count on hockey before 2021-22.

Quote from: TrotskyWe have no idea right now where we'll be next October.  Supposedly human trials for an (as yet non-existent) vaccine won't be complete for 6 months after it is created.  After that we'll need mass production and distribution.

I wouldn't count on hockey before 2021-22.

I've started taking a MOOC on COVID-19 taught by immunologists at Imperial College London. This week we read:

   Ferguson, N., D. Laydon, G. Nedjati Gilani, N. Imai, K. Ainslie, M. Baguelin, S. Bhatia, et al. 2020. "Report 9: Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) to Reduce COVID19 Mortality and Healthcare Demand." Report. https://doi.org/10.25561/77482.

This study has gotten a lot of attention lately. It suggests Trotsky's right. Until there's a vaccine we're likely to see repeated waves of the virus. The report suggests this first period of shutdown has to last until late August or September. But without a vaccine repeat waves are likely to reoccur a few weeks later. And this assumes the entire U.S. is doing the maximum to suppress the virus. The report was written before its authors learned that over here we have ::asshole::s like Brian Kemp (https://nypost.com/2020/04/02/georgia-governor-brian-kemp-didnt-know-coronavirus-could-be-spread-without-symptoms/) and Rod DeSantis (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/coronavirus-florida-stay-at-home-governor-church-pastor-rodney-howard-browne-social-distancing-a9444486.html), whose shit-for-brains is likely to increase the likelihood, intensity, and frequency with which the waves repeat nationally.

Meanwhile, here in Shanghai people are close to acting like things are business as normal, so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
1) In theory everyone is required to present a green/yellow/red QR code on their phone to gain access to buildings.  QR code is meant to change color based on big papa govt. tracking of proximity to known cases.  In practice they are making people like me (blond, blue eyes, big nose) display a code but if you look ethnically Chinese you just get waived through.  This includes people who are now free to travel from Hubei province who may/may not be asymptomatic carriers.
2) I have yet to see a single person in my office building make even an attempt at washing their hands correctly.
3) While in theory everyone is supposed to wear masks, some do not, and those that do are just recycling the same basic surgical mask with no attempt to follow any kind of sterile guidelines.
4) Temperatures are taken upon entrance to many buildings but the thermometer calibration is so far off as to be useless.  My temperature this morning was 32 deg C...I'm pretty sure that means I should be starring in a Weekend at Bernie's remake.
5) My physician friends in SH and BJ suggest that hospital ICU beds are currently heavily utilized but they are very careful about what they say and where they say it as they don't want to suddenly be peeling garlic in a reeducation center in Xinjiang.

There's plenty of political spin and stupid going around here as well, I think we are in for a long ride.

Quote from: cu155Meanwhile, here in Shanghai people are close to acting like things are business as normal, so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
1) In theory everyone is required to present a green/yellow/red QR code on their phone to gain access to buildings.  QR code is meant to change color based on big papa govt. tracking of proximity to known cases.  In practice they are making people like me (blond, blue eyes, big nose) display a code but if you look ethnically Chinese you just get waived through.  This includes people who are now free to travel from Hubei province who may/may not be asymptomatic carriers.
2) I have yet to see a single person in my office building make even an attempt at washing their hands correctly.
3) While in theory everyone is supposed to wear masks, some do not, and those that do are just recycling the same basic surgical mask with no attempt to follow any kind of sterile guidelines.
4) Temperatures are taken upon entrance to many buildings but the thermometer calibration is so far off as to be useless.  My temperature this morning was 32 deg C...I'm pretty sure that means I should be starring in a Weekend at Bernie's remake.
5) My physician friends in SH and BJ suggest that hospital ICU beds are currently heavily utilized but they are very careful about what they say and where they say it as they don't want to suddenly be peeling garlic in a reeducation center in Xinjiang.

There's plenty of political spin and stupid going around here as well, I think we are in for a long ride.

Meantime, back here, we're a country with 4.25% of the world's population but 25% of its COVID-19 cases. OK, we're still only doing diagnostic testing. Oh wait, expanding testing here could only increase our share of the world's COVID-positives. Maybe other countries are testing even less than we are, so they have more cases than they're reporting. But it's harder to fake death: we currently have 12% of the world's deaths, even though we got started late.

The gaslight dujour here is to compare us with China and then claim China is cooking the books. I suspect even if we took China out of the world totals and compared us to what's left, we'd still look awful. But besides your direct observations, do you have any sense of whether China is indeed cooking the books on the total numbers infected and dead from the disease, either for China as a whole or for individual cities like Shanghai?

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: cu155Meanwhile, here in Shanghai people are close to acting like things are business as normal, so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
1) In theory everyone is required to present a green/yellow/red QR code on their phone to gain access to buildings.  QR code is meant to change color based on big papa govt. tracking of proximity to known cases.  In practice they are making people like me (blond, blue eyes, big nose) display a code but if you look ethnically Chinese you just get waived through.  This includes people who are now free to travel from Hubei province who may/may not be asymptomatic carriers.
2) I have yet to see a single person in my office building make even an attempt at washing their hands correctly.
3) While in theory everyone is supposed to wear masks, some do not, and those that do are just recycling the same basic surgical mask with no attempt to follow any kind of sterile guidelines.
4) Temperatures are taken upon entrance to many buildings but the thermometer calibration is so far off as to be useless.  My temperature this morning was 32 deg C...I'm pretty sure that means I should be starring in a Weekend at Bernie's remake.
5) My physician friends in SH and BJ suggest that hospital ICU beds are currently heavily utilized but they are very careful about what they say and where they say it as they don't want to suddenly be peeling garlic in a reeducation center in Xinjiang.

There's plenty of political spin and stupid going around here as well, I think we are in for a long ride.

Meantime, back here, we're a country with 4.25% of the world's population but 25% of its COVID-19 cases. OK, we're still only doing diagnostic testing. Oh wait, expanding testing here could only increase our share of the world's COVID-positives. Maybe other countries are testing even less than we are, so they have more cases than they're reporting. But it's harder to fake death: we currently have 12% of the world's deaths, even though we got started late.

The gaslight dujour here is to compare us with China and then claim China is cooking the books. I suspect even if we took China out of the world totals and compared us to what's left, we'd still look awful. But besides your direct observations, do you have any sense of whether China is indeed cooking the books on the total numbers infected and dead from the disease, either for China as a whole or for individual cities like Shanghai?

Google "China funeral urns".

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: cu155Meanwhile, here in Shanghai people are close to acting like things are business as normal, so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop.
1) In theory everyone is required to present a green/yellow/red QR code on their phone to gain access to buildings.  QR code is meant to change color based on big papa govt. tracking of proximity to known cases.  In practice they are making people like me (blond, blue eyes, big nose) display a code but if you look ethnically Chinese you just get waived through.  This includes people who are now free to travel from Hubei province who may/may not be asymptomatic carriers.
2) I have yet to see a single person in my office building make even an attempt at washing their hands correctly.
3) While in theory everyone is supposed to wear masks, some do not, and those that do are just recycling the same basic surgical mask with no attempt to follow any kind of sterile guidelines.
4) Temperatures are taken upon entrance to many buildings but the thermometer calibration is so far off as to be useless.  My temperature this morning was 32 deg C...I'm pretty sure that means I should be starring in a Weekend at Bernie's remake.
5) My physician friends in SH and BJ suggest that hospital ICU beds are currently heavily utilized but they are very careful about what they say and where they say it as they don't want to suddenly be peeling garlic in a reeducation center in Xinjiang.

There's plenty of political spin and stupid going around here as well, I think we are in for a long ride.

Meantime, back here, we're a country with 4.25% of the world's population but 25% of its COVID-19 cases. OK, we're still only doing diagnostic testing. Oh wait, expanding testing here could only increase our share of the world's COVID-positives. Maybe other countries are testing even less than we are, so they have more cases than they're reporting. But it's harder to fake death: we currently have 12% of the world's deaths, even though we got started late.

The gaslight dujour here is to compare us with China and then claim China is cooking the books. I suspect even if we took China out of the world totals and compared us to what's left, we'd still look awful. But besides your direct observations, do you have any sense of whether China is indeed cooking the books on the total numbers infected and dead from the disease, either for China as a whole or for individual cities like Shanghai?

Google "China funeral urns".

Also learn about the Great Leap Forward.  The official position was that maybe a million people died.  Recently the archives opened, and the actual numbers were closer to 45 million.

Or a smaller example: about 10 years ago there was a major derailment on the main Beijing to Shanghai high speed rail line.  The initial response by the government was to bury the train cars, bodies and all, so there would be no evidence of the crash.  However, the locals stopped the bulldozers and eventually the bodies were recovered mostly by the people, not the government.  A 200-300 people were killed.  However, the "official" number was 38 people dead.  Why 38?  Because a law was passed a few years earlier that any incident above 40 people required an official investigation of the government and party leaders.  So 38 it was.

Do not trust any numbers or statistics from the CPC.

Hockey season is truly over now. Defending government incompetence in The U.S.A. by attacking the honesty of the Chinese leaders sounds like something they do at Harvard. I'm sure the dolts in attendance there accept this as whole cloth.

Every government is lying to look better. Here, there is a simultaneous dance where the Administration wants to make sure people take it seriously but not so seriously that they get mad at the government for waiting so long to take it seriously. We're intentionally undercounting our COVID-19 cases by under-testing and attributing anything that isn't a confirmed-by-test illness or death as a coronavirus case to something else. It's straight up juking the stats. Our numbers would look worse if we were being honest and it's pretty clear that China has been bullshitting for a while too. Japan lied about their numbers until it was clear that the Tokyo games couldn't go forward and then they started being a bit more honest. As bad as Italy is, it sounds like they avoid counting COVID cases too, so their numbers could be even worse.

South Korea and maybe Germany appear to be the only countries being genuinely honest about their methods and successes.

this is basically a repeat of a twitter thread here, and someone replied with evidence that Italy is juking the stats https://twitter.com/Ugarles/status/1246128308573614084

Thanks everyone. These are very helpful, knowledgeable posts.

But getting back to the simple calculations I reported, they're pretty damning. We have 4.25% of the world's population, 25% of the infections, and 12.5% of the deaths. What amazes me is that even the allegedly anti-Trump media (e.g., MSNBC) does not highlight such comparisons.

Ugarte, some smart masters student will decompose U.S. death statistics to figure out the gap. Use historical data to estimate a "normal" death rate. Attribute the entire increment to a higher rate to COVID-19. Subtract the "official" COVID death rate from it, and the residual is a combination of the juking and collateral damage (i.e., deaths from other causes but attributable to COVID; e.g., a heart attack patient who was never treated because there was no room at the hospital).

Oh, and we can adjust for China, or any other country, screwing around with the numbers by simply removing the China data from the world totals and recalculating.

Quote from: SwampyThe gaslight dujour here is to compare us with China and then claim China is cooking the books. I suspect even if we took China out of the world totals and compared us to what's left, we'd still look awful. But besides your direct observations, do you have any sense of whether China is indeed cooking the books on the total numbers infected and dead from the disease, either for China as a whole or for individual cities like Shanghai?

Swampy, I want to be clear my comments in my original post were definitely not meant in any way to deflect from the shamefully poor response of our Federal government and of many state governments.  I'm merely trying to provide some contrast in terms of what is being done on the ground here versus the US approach.  FWIW I've had Fox news anchors call me a 'panda hugger' so it's not that I'm blindly anti China or pro USA.

To answer your questions, yes I do have some direct understanding of what is happening here.  I know two hospital heads, one in Shanghai and one in Beijing who have told me privately that they are seeing a significant number of patients that are local transmission cases, not returning foreigners or Chinese nationals who are bringing the disease back.  To my understanding the numbers are significant but not to crisis level at this time.  I also know that an apartment complex (one complex might be home to 5000 plus people) in my district in China was recently re-quarantined due to positive tests.  However, those new positives have not been applied to my district's overall case numbers which have been kept at 6 for the past 2 months.  I also personally know more than 6 people who have tested positive so can say with some confidence that they are being cagey about the numbers.

The reality of the situation is that China did move fairly quickly but that a lot of what they are doing is window dressing and not completely effective.  However, their approach is still more than we are seeing in the US. But as with anything the government does in China optics are important.  

The Chinese government's overriding directive is always to maintain social stability.  They remember the Cultural Revolution and do not want to go back to that.  What I suspect is happening is that they are keeping numbers artificially low for a few reasons.  
1) They are worried about the economy and are hoping that they can get people back to work while at the same time keeping just enough controls in place to manage new cases.  
2) They are hoping that in doing this the number of new cases will be low enough that they can continue to under report numbers and keep the situation controlled until there is a vaccine.  
3) They want to be able to show China as a model of excellence in fighting the pandemic both for a domestic audience who were quite critical of the government when this first got bad, as well as to a global audience to show China as an alternative to the US.

China just had a national day of mourning for victims of the 'war' yesterday.  They played air raid sirens in all cities for ten minutes, and everyone driving stopped to honk their horns in solidarity.  They also played several documentaries from Wuhan.  What was interesting was how they approached the political angle.  The central message was effectively that the leaders of Wuhan let down the people and left the people to fend for themselves and so the people came together as one to care for each other, survive and sacrifice.  This is the central government's playbook in situations like this.  Blame the local government, blame the corrupt head of the high speed train network etc. (rightly or wrongly), then inject emotional stories about how the people and nation rallied together to help each other.

I don't know if we'll ever get totally accurate numbers if/when this whole situation resolves but I do hope that the US and China and other nations take a long hard look at what failed and what did work and implement best practices to prevent this in future.

Check out the Washington Post article:  Denial and Dysfunction plagued US Government as coronavirus raged ... (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/04/04/coronavirus-government-dysfunction/?arc404=true)  for a good press overview of things not going so well.

Darwin was right.

An excellent lesson (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWzbArPgo-o) on COVID-19 by a very effective teacher.