ELynah Forum

Quote from: TrotskyI can drive to Allentown.  I'm cool with that.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: TrotskyI can drive to Allentown.  I'm cool with that.

I can walk to Allentown.  Mind you, the arena is about 2.5 miles from me, and it's mostly uphill.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: TrotskyI can drive to Allentown.  I'm cool with that.

I can walk to Allentown.  Mind you, the arena is about 2.5 miles from me, and it's mostly uphill.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: TrotskyI can drive to Allentown.  I'm cool with that.

I can walk to Allentown.  Mind you, the arena is about 2.5 miles from me, and it's mostly uphill.

both ways

Quote from: Jim HylaThis week's brackets (http://www.uscho.com/2018/01/24/bracketology-whos-whos-ncaa-tournament-started-today/)

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
9 Minnesota vs. 8 Western Michigan

East Regional (Bridgeport):
15 Boston College vs. 2 Cornell
11 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Ohio State

West Regional (Sioux Falls):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 6 Minnesota State

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Omaha vs. 4 Clarkson
10 Providence vs. 5 Denver
Conference breakdowns

NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

This week's movement:

Out: Penn State

In: Boston College

Quote from: TrotskyCornell needs to start "hosting" Albany regionals, whatever that bullsh-t entails.  Ideally hosting would be banned, but while we still have this stupid system we might as well use it.

Quote from: TrotskyCornell needs to start "hosting" Albany regionals, whatever that bullsh-t entails.  Ideally hosting would be banned, but while we still have this stupid system we might as well use it.

Quote from: CU2007

Quote from: TrotskyCornell needs to start "hosting" Albany regionals, whatever that bullsh-t entails.  Ideally hosting would be banned, but while we still have this stupid system we might as well use it.

What are the criteria for a host city? There's an AHL rink and lots of hotels in Syracuse, Rochester, etc.

Elmira? Binghamton?

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82It's all wrong.  BC leading Hockey East is just a way to rationalize having another eastern team in the bracketology.  And with BC in the bracketology, it shifts us into New England on the justification of attendance.

Quote from: SwampyIn terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: SwampyIn terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: SwampyIn terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

You are correct.

I assumed the word "current" in my first sentence made this clear: everything is based on data available today and as if the season ended today. Obviously the assumption was wrong.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: SwampyIn terms of winning % in league, current conference leaders are:² Canisius (31), Notre Dame (1), Clarkson (4t)/Cornell (1t), BC (17t), Denver (4t), and Minnesota State (6). Of these, Canisius & BC are not in the top ten, so they must win their conferences to make the NCAA's.

This would be more accurately stated as "...so if the regular season ended today, they would have to win their conferences to make the NCAAs." Canisius may not have a path to an at-large, but BC certainly has the mathematical opportunity to get there, especially if there aren't any serious upsets in the conference tourney title games.

You are correct.

I assumed the word "current" in my first sentence made this clear: everything is based on data available today and as if the season ended today. Obviously the assumption was wrong.

It was actually the word "current" that made me parse the next sentence the way I did. :-) Doesn't matter, we agree on what the reality is.

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

I'm pretty sure this playoffstatus predictor is heavily flawed. It does not appear to sufficiently account for the inherent variance of a hockey game and considers a good team losing to a lesser team an extremely unlikely event. For example, it gives Cornell a 96% chance of making Lake Placid (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html), which is obviously absurd. It also gives Cornell a 71% chance of getting the 1-seed (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecacstandings.html) in the ECAC and Clarkson a 27% chance, despite only one point separating them with eight games remaining and the two teams playing each other one more time. (Plus the game is at Clarkson and Clarkson crushed us the last time we played, which I assume the model doesn't take into account.)

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

I'm pretty sure this playoffstatus predictor is heavily flawed. It does not appear to sufficiently account for the inherent variance of a hockey game and considers a good team losing to a lesser team an extremely unlikely event. For example, it gives Cornell a 96% chance of making Lake Placid (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html), which is obviously absurd. It also gives Cornell a 71% chance of getting the 1-seed (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecacstandings.html) in the ECAC and Clarkson a 27% chance, despite only one point separating them with eight games remaining and the two teams playing each other one more time. (Plus the game is at Clarkson and Clarkson crushed us the last time we played, which I assume the model doesn't take into account.)

Can't agree more. These "odds" sites that calculate and blend data down for any league you can think of really don't have any insight or context baked in.

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

I'm pretty sure this playoffstatus predictor is heavily flawed. It does not appear to sufficiently account for the inherent variance of a hockey game and considers a good team losing to a lesser team an extremely unlikely event. For example, it gives Cornell a 96% chance of making Lake Placid (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html), which is obviously absurd. It also gives Cornell a 71% chance of getting the 1-seed (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecacstandings.html) in the ECAC and Clarkson a 27% chance, despite only one point separating them with eight games remaining and the two teams playing each other one more time. (Plus the game is at Clarkson and Clarkson crushed us the last time we played, which I assume the model doesn't take into account.)

Can't agree more. These "odds" sites that calculate and blend data down for any league you can think of really don't have any insight or context baked in.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

I'm pretty sure this playoffstatus predictor is heavily flawed. It does not appear to sufficiently account for the inherent variance of a hockey game and considers a good team losing to a lesser team an extremely unlikely event. For example, it gives Cornell a 96% chance of making Lake Placid (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html), which is obviously absurd. It also gives Cornell a 71% chance of getting the 1-seed (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecacstandings.html) in the ECAC and Clarkson a 27% chance, despite only one point separating them with eight games remaining and the two teams playing each other one more time. (Plus the game is at Clarkson and Clarkson crushed us the last time we played, which I assume the model doesn't take into account.)

Can't agree more. These "odds" sites that calculate and blend data down for any league you can think of really don't have any insight or context baked in.

They're also not really designed to predict the probability of a particular outcome - they're designed to predict the probability of a particular outcome assuming everything between now and then pretty much goes the way it's gone up until now.

Quote from: jfeath17I prefer this site. Shows where in the pairwise each team will finish based versus how many of their remaining games they win.

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

Quote from: jfeath17I prefer this site. Shows where in the pairwise each team will finish based versus how many of their remaining games they win.

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

I'm pretty sure this playoffstatus predictor is heavily flawed. It does not appear to sufficiently account for the inherent variance of a hockey game and considers a good team losing to a lesser team an extremely unlikely event. For example, it gives Cornell a 96% chance of making Lake Placid (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html), which is obviously absurd. It also gives Cornell a 71% chance of getting the 1-seed (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecacstandings.html) in the ECAC and Clarkson a 27% chance, despite only one point separating them with eight games remaining and the two teams playing each other one more time. (Plus the game is at Clarkson and Clarkson crushed us the last time we played, which I assume the model doesn't take into account.)

Can't agree more. These "odds" sites that calculate and blend data down for any league you can think of really don't have any insight or context baked in.

They're also not really designed to predict the probability of a particular outcome - they're designed to predict the probability of a particular outcome assuming everything between now and then pretty much goes the way it's gone up until now.

Quote from: adamwI think we had this discussion here last year. ... FWIW - as someone who wrote something similar for CHN (haven't published this year's yet - a couple more weeks until we do) ... I agree with everything Greg wrote.  Except I also agree with some of the criticisms, in that, I certainly believe it's possible to put some better metrics into the equation and come up with a better output.  Or - more precisely - I think the model could use some uncertainty fuzziness baked into it, so long as it's mathematically-based uncertainty.  And that is beyond my capabilities.

So if anyone wants to contribute any formulas, code or ideas to what we're doing on CHN - feel free. All ears.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: andyw2100We are now at a 90% probability of getting a 1-seed!

http://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

I'm pretty sure this playoffstatus predictor is heavily flawed. It does not appear to sufficiently account for the inherent variance of a hockey game and considers a good team losing to a lesser team an extremely unlikely event. For example, it gives Cornell a 96% chance of making Lake Placid (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html), which is obviously absurd. It also gives Cornell a 71% chance of getting the 1-seed (http://www.playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecacstandings.html) in the ECAC and Clarkson a 27% chance, despite only one point separating them with eight games remaining and the two teams playing each other one more time. (Plus the game is at Clarkson and Clarkson crushed us the last time we played, which I assume the model doesn't take into account.)

Can't agree more. These "odds" sites that calculate and blend data down for any league you can think of really don't have any insight or context baked in.

They're also not really designed to predict the probability of a particular outcome - they're designed to predict the probability of a particular outcome assuming everything between now and then pretty much goes the way it's gone up until now.

I don't agree at all with any of this line of criticism.  Roughly in order:

1. Just because intuitions disagree with odds doesn't mean the odds are wrong or the methodology is flawed.

2.  We operate with a host of perception biases and our monkey brains are notoriously terrible at assigning relative likelihoods and proportions because we are strongly influenced by anecdotal experience.

3. A model will of course "assume things keep on going as they have been" because that's the best guess of what will happen.  As long as the methodologically-correct degree of uncertainty (error) is built into the model, it's doing its job right.

Why is a 96% chance of making Lake Placid "obviously" absurd?  Sure, it seems high, but what it means is 19 times out of 20 team x with our profile would advance.  That's still once in 20 that it doesn't.  That may well be in accord with historical actuals.

The problem with models isn't modeling per se -- modeling works really well or Armstrong wouldn't have hit the moon.  What matters is taking care in choosing metrics and getting the probabilities right.  Statistics and probability theory have been working on each of those tasks respectively for a hundred years and as uncomfortable as it may be they now do a much, much better job of predicting than the eye test or common sense.

For a longer dissertation just read this entire site (https://youarenotsosmart.com/).

Quote from: KGR11My big problem with playoffstatus is that their methodology isn't clear. How can I agree or disagree without knowing how they did it?

IIRC, CHN does a Monte Carlo analysis based on KRACH. I'm on board with that.

Quote from: TrotskyI love his little trend thingy (https://collegehockeyranked.com/rankings/pwr/).

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: KGR11My big problem with playoffstatus is that their methodology isn't clear. How can I agree or disagree without knowing how they did it?

IIRC, CHN does a Monte Carlo analysis based on KRACH. I'm on board with that.

That is correct. I take the two KRACH values, and just use a random number generator to get the winner for that game, and every game. Then run it around 50,000 times, or as much as possible overnight.  But I do agree that KRACH might exaggerate things at the margins, given the relatively small sample sizes of past results we're dealing with.

Quote from: jfeath17"The outcome of each game in each simulation is determined by random draw, with the probability of victory for each team set by their relative KRACH ratings. So, if the simulation set included a contest between team A with KRACH 300 and team B with KRACH 100, team A will win the game in very close to 75% of the simulations. I don't simulate ties or home ice advantage." Do the KRACH rating update after each game?  Or do you take today's number and hold constant?

https://blog.collegehockeyranked.com/2018/01/12/first-2018-pwr-forecasts-available/

Seems to be pretty much the same methodology as CHN.

Quote from: jfeath17I may be wrong, but I spent some time playing with the conference standings and I believe Cornell can clinch a first round bye with a sweep this weekend.

Quote from: TrotskyI don't agree at all with any of this line of criticism.  Roughly in order:

1. Just because intuitions disagree with odds doesn't mean the odds are wrong or the methodology is flawed.

Quote2.  We operate with a host of perception biases and our monkey brains are notoriously terrible at assigning relative likelihoods and proportions because we are strongly influenced by anecdotal experience.

Quote3. A model will of course "assume things keep on going as they have been" because that's the best guess of what will happen.  As long as the methodologically-correct degree of uncertainty (error) is built into the model, it's doing its job right.

QuoteWhy is a 96% chance of making Lake Placid "obviously" absurd?  Sure, it seems high, but what it means is 19 times out of 20 team x with our profile would advance.  That's still once in 20 that it doesn't.  That may well be in accord with historical actuals.

QuoteThe problem with models isn't modeling per se -- modeling works really well or Armstrong wouldn't have hit the moon.  What matters is taking care in choosing metrics and getting the probabilities right.  Statistics and probability theory have been working on each of those tasks respectively for a hundred years and as uncomfortable as it may be they now do a much, much better job of predicting than the eye test or common sense.

Quote from: jkahn

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: KGR11My big problem with playoffstatus is that their methodology isn't clear. How can I agree or disagree without knowing how they did it?

IIRC, CHN does a Monte Carlo analysis based on KRACH. I'm on board with that.

That is correct. I take the two KRACH values, and just use a random number generator to get the winner for that game, and every game. Then run it around 50,000 times, or as much as possible overnight.  But I do agree that KRACH might exaggerate things at the margins, given the relatively small sample sizes of past results we're dealing with.

I agree that using Adam's stated methodology is probably the best available way to look at it.  However, based upon last year, I do still believe there may be some flaws in the programming of the model.  Last year the model said we had a 98% chance of making the NCAA's going into the Clarkson series.  We had a 35% chance of losing Game 1 to Clarkson.  When we lost Game 1, our NCAA odds dropped to 65% per the model.  While I realize that there were other results that Friday night, if we had a 35% chance of being at 65% after the game, there's no way our odds before the game should have been any higher than 88%, and certainly not 98%.  If 98% were truly correct, than the 35% chance of a loss should have only dropped us to 94% at an average (35% of 94 plus 65% of 100 = 98).
Adam - it might be worthwhile looking into how the model handles playoff rounds and that fact that some series may go two games while others go three.  Does it automatically generate the third game only when necessary?  And does it appropriately handle subsequent match-ups?

Quote from: jfeath17I prefer this site. Shows where in the pairwise each team will finish based versus how many of their remaining games they win.

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: TrotskyI don't agree at all with any of this line of criticism.  Roughly in order:

1. Just because intuitions disagree with odds doesn't mean the odds are wrong or the methodology is flawed.

No one is arguing this. But sometimes the odds are so, for lack of a better term, at odds with what we perceive to be true that heavy skepticism is warranted.

Quote2.  We operate with a host of perception biases and our monkey brains are notoriously terrible at assigning relative likelihoods and proportions because we are strongly influenced by anecdotal experience.

Even my monkey brain can see that of our four games against our most likely second round opponents, Quinnipiac and Princeton, three of those games could have gone either way. The first Q game was decided on a crazy fluke goal. We were outshot 29-20. In the second game against Quinnipiac, we again won by one goal and were outshot 28-20. The first Princeton game we were outshot 25-22 and won on a goal with under seven minutes left. I put a lot of stake in models, far more than I do in my or any "expert's" "analysis," but this particular model is flawed. And as jkahn pointed out, it yields mathematically inconsistent results in addition to failing the eye test.

Quote3. A model will of course "assume things keep on going as they have been" because that's the best guess of what will happen.  As long as the methodologically-correct degree of uncertainty (error) is built into the model, it's doing its job right.

Right, and my point is that the degree of uncertainty is not methodologically correct. (http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2017/10/06/on-salad-and-predicting-hockey-games/)

QuoteWhy is a 96% chance of making Lake Placid "obviously" absurd?  Sure, it seems high, but what it means is 19 times out of 20 team x with our profile would advance.  That's still once in 20 that it doesn't.  That may well be in accord with historical actuals.

A math major should check me on this, but I believe having a 96% chance of winning a best-of-three series requires having an 88% chance of winning a single game. Even if Cornell were to finish the regular season as the best team in the country, I have a very hard time believing it would win almost 9/10 games against a middle-of-the-pack team. But we don't even know where the Red will finish.

QuoteThe problem with models isn't modeling per se -- modeling works really well or Armstrong wouldn't have hit the moon.  What matters is taking care in choosing metrics and getting the probabilities right.  Statistics and probability theory have been working on each of those tasks respectively for a hundred years and as uncomfortable as it may be they now do a much, much better job of predicting than the eye test or common sense.

I love models. This particular model just isn't very good.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: jfeath17I prefer this site. Shows where in the pairwise each team will finish based versus how many of their remaining games they win.

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

says something about our SOS that we can win out and still drop to third (before the conference tournaments start).

Quote from: nshapiro

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: jfeath17I prefer this site. Shows where in the pairwise each team will finish based versus how many of their remaining games they win.

https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrbywins/

says something about our SOS that we can win out and still drop to third (before the conference tournaments start).

I take these rankings with a BIG grain of salt, especially when https://collegehockeyranked.com/forecast/pwrchart/cornell/endofseason/ says there is a 100% certainty that going 1-7 means we finished exactly 10th in the pairwise.

Quote from: KGR11I checked your math, 88% for a single game is correct. But if we're the #1 team in the ECAC, we wouldn't be playing against the middle of the pack; we'd be playing against the worst team left, so the highest team we'd play is #8. On average, we're probably playing #9.

Quote from: KGR11It sounds like Bearlover would prefer a model that incorporated more context on the games played. I'm imagining is some kind of weighted Scoring margin where you weight each goal for based on how good the opponents defense is and each goal against based on how opponents offense is. Not sure how easy that is to create, though.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: KGR11I checked your math, 88% for a single game is correct. But if we're the #1 team in the ECAC, we wouldn't be playing against the middle of the pack; we'd be playing against the worst team left, so the highest team we'd play is #8. On average, we're probably playing #9.

Sorry, I meant "middle of the pack" as in the PWR, not the ECAC, because I was talking about us being the best team in the country (which is about where the PWR has us now), not the best team in the ECAC.

Quote from: KGR11It sounds like Bearlover would prefer a model that incorporated more context on the games played. I'm imagining is some kind of weighted Scoring margin where you weight each goal for based on how good the opponents defense is and each goal against based on how opponents offense is. Not sure how easy that is to create, though.

I'd love a model like that, though that's not my biggest gripe with this model. Rather, the clearest problem is that the model does not sufficiently account for the natural randomness of a hockey game. It apparently treats slight favorites as big favorites, big favorites as overwhelming favorites, etc. Others in this thread have argued that maybe those big favorites are big favorites, and that the #1 seed in the ECAC is overwhelmingly likely to beat a team that's 30th in the PWR, but I have never seen odds for a hockey game even come close to assigning one team an 88% chance of winning. Someone who gambles should verify, but I would wager there hasn't been an NHL game this season where the odds were more than 70% in one direction.

Re-linking to this article (http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2017/10/06/on-salad-and-predicting-hockey-games/), which states: " the better NHL team can expect to win 57% of matches played against an opponent on neutral ice."

It is true that there is a greater disparity between NCAA teams than there is between NHL teams, but 88% against an average team is just nuts.

Quote from: KGR11

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: KGR11I checked your math, 88% for a single game is correct. But if we're the #1 team in the ECAC, we wouldn't be playing against the middle of the pack; we'd be playing against the worst team left, so the highest team we'd play is #8. On average, we're probably playing #9.

Sorry, I meant "middle of the pack" as in the PWR, not the ECAC, because I was talking about us being the best team in the country (which is about where the PWR has us now), not the best team in the ECAC.

Quote from: KGR11It sounds like Bearlover would prefer a model that incorporated more context on the games played. I'm imagining is some kind of weighted Scoring margin where you weight each goal for based on how good the opponents defense is and each goal against based on how opponents offense is. Not sure how easy that is to create, though.

I'd love a model like that, though that's not my biggest gripe with this model. Rather, the clearest problem is that the model does not sufficiently account for the natural randomness of a hockey game. It apparently treats slight favorites as big favorites, big favorites as overwhelming favorites, etc. Others in this thread have argued that maybe those big favorites are big favorites, and that the #1 seed in the ECAC is overwhelmingly likely to beat a team that's 30th in the PWR, but I have never seen odds for a hockey game even come close to assigning one team an 88% chance of winning. Someone who gambles should verify, but I would wager there hasn't been an NHL game this season where the odds were more than 70% in one direction.

Re-linking to this article (http://www.corsica.hockey/blog/2017/10/06/on-salad-and-predicting-hockey-games/), which states: " the better NHL team can expect to win 57% of matches played against an opponent on neutral ice."

It is true that there is a greater disparity between NCAA teams than there is between NHL teams, but 88% against an average team is just nuts.

I think the easiest methodology would be to analyze how KRACH's pseudo-win-loss records match up with what actually happens. I'm imagining a dampening factor or equation could make it a better predictor.

Does anyone know if this has been tried?

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: No new teams in or out, but matchups starting to get interesting (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/07/bracketology-no-new-teams-matchups-starting-get-interesting/)

This week's brackets

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Western Michigan vs. 4 Cornell
11 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State

West Regional (Sioux Falls):
15 Boston College vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 North Dakota

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 Denver
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson

Conference breakdowns

NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

This week's movement:

Out: None

In: None

Quote from: scoop85

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: No new teams in or out, but matchups starting to get interesting (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/07/bracketology-no-new-teams-matchups-starting-get-interesting/)

This week's brackets

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Western Michigan vs. 4 Cornell
11 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State

West Regional (Sioux Falls):
15 Boston College vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 North Dakota

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 Denver
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson

Conference breakdowns

NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

This week's movement:

Out: None

In: None

In the "be careful what you wish for" category, that looks like a dream regional to me.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: scoop85

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: No new teams in or out, but matchups starting to get interesting (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/07/bracketology-no-new-teams-matchups-starting-get-interesting/)

This week's brackets

Midwest Regional (Allentown):
16 Canisius vs. 1 Notre Dame
10 Omaha vs. 6 Ohio State

East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Western Michigan vs. 4 Cornell
11 Providence vs. 5 Minnesota State

West Regional (Sioux Falls):
15 Boston College vs. 2 St. Cloud State
9 Minnesota vs. 8 North Dakota

Northeast Regional (Worcester):
13 Northeastern vs. 3 Denver
12 Minnesota Duluth vs. 7 Clarkson

Conference breakdowns

NCHC — 6
Big Ten — 3
Hockey East — 3
ECAC Hockey — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey – 1

This week's movement:

Out: None

In: None

In the "be careful what you wish for" category, that looks like a dream regional to me.

like when we ended up in a Regional with Bemidji.

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

I'm contractually obligated to point out that South Dakota isn't North Dakota, and as NoDak is only in 12th right now, there's some hope they fall out of consideration and we have a Nazi free Sioux Falls regional.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

I'm contractually obligated to point out that South Dakota isn't North Dakota, and as NoDak is only in 12th right now, there's some hope they fall out of consideration and we have a Nazi free Sioux Falls regional.

I would rather that they continue to win.  If they drop to 13th or 14th, then they can't play St. Cloud or Denver in the first round.  That means that either we or Notre Dame will have to go out to Sioux Falls to play them.  If we're not #1, then it'll likely be us.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

I'm contractually obligated to point out that South Dakota isn't North Dakota, and as NoDak is only in 12th right now, there's some hope they fall out of consideration and we have a Nazi free Sioux Falls regional.

I would rather that they continue to win.  If they drop to 13th or 14th, then they can't play St. Cloud or Denver in the first round.  That means that either we or Notre Dame will have to go out to Sioux Falls to play them.  If we're not #1, then it'll likely be us.

Do they get to stay in Sioux Falls as a host or something? Would there be any chance that they get shipped East as a 4?

Because Sioux Falls is like six hours from Grand Forks.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

I'm contractually obligated to point out that South Dakota isn't North Dakota, and as NoDak is only in 12th right now, there's some hope they fall out of consideration and we have a Nazi free Sioux Falls regional.

I would rather that they continue to win.  If they drop to 13th or 14th, then they can't play St. Cloud or Denver in the first round.  That means that either we or Notre Dame will have to go out to Sioux Falls to play them.  If we're not #1, then it'll likely be us.

Do they get to stay in Sioux Falls as a host or something? Would there be any chance that they get shipped East as a 4?

Because Sioux Falls is like six hours from Grand Forks.

They're host.  They bought the right to stay.  Which is bullshit, but that's a different topic.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

I'm contractually obligated to point out that South Dakota isn't North Dakota, and as NoDak is only in 12th right now, there's some hope they fall out of consideration and we have a Nazi free Sioux Falls regional.

I would rather that they continue to win.  If they drop to 13th or 14th, then they can't play St. Cloud or Denver in the first round.  That means that either we or Notre Dame will have to go out to Sioux Falls to play them.  If we're not #1, then it'll likely be us.

Quote from: NCAA seeding & placement guidelinesIn setting up the tournament, the committee begins with a list of priorities to ensure a successful tournament on all fronts, including competitive equity, financial success and the likelihood of a playoff-type atmosphere at each regional site. For this model, the following is a basic set of priorities:

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: TrotskyAnywhere but the Nazi Regional.

I'm contractually obligated to point out that South Dakota isn't North Dakota, and as NoDak is only in 12th right now, there's some hope they fall out of consideration and we have a Nazi free Sioux Falls regional.

I would rather that they continue to win.  If they drop to 13th or 14th, then they can't play St. Cloud or Denver in the first round.  That means that either we or Notre Dame will have to go out to Sioux Falls to play them.  If we're not #1, then it'll likely be us.

Do they get to stay in Sioux Falls as a host or something? Would there be any chance that they get shipped East as a 4?

Because Sioux Falls is like six hours from Grand Forks.

They're host.  They bought the right to stay.  Which is bullshit, but that's a different topic.

As the Fighting Hawk Sioux flies, 6 hours is nothing.  UND fans travel really well.

Quote from: billhowardCornell might get 2,000 fans (more?) to Allentown.

Quote from: billhowardCornell might get 2,000 fans (more?) to Allentown.

Quote from: Scersk '97The tix for Allentown are cheap. (Lowest bracket is $44.50 for both days, I think; Bridgeport is $70 plus fees.)

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: billhowardCornell might get 2,000 fans (more?) to Allentown.

NYC to Allentown is a 2-hour drive and a $32 bus ticket.

Plus I can drive to it.

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: billhowardCornell might get 2,000 fans (more?) to Allentown.

NYC to Allentown is a 2-hour drive and a $32 bus ticket.

Plus I can drive to it.

NYC to Bridgeport is a 90 minute train ride for under $20, and you can walk to the arena from the station. Also accessible from Boston/Providence via Amtrak. Long Island via Ferry. And parking is under I-95 for the drivers. (Or rather, parking is ON I-95 most of the time).

I can get to either Bridgeport or Worcester in an hour. I would also be excited for Allentown, since I lived there while on an internship/co-op in the '90s. I'd love to see all the changes.

Anywhere but Sioux Falls, indeed.

Quote from: Jim HylaEast Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Omaha vs. 3 Cornell
9 Providence vs. 8 Minnesota

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

Quote from: Chris '03

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

I have the opposite feeling. It'd probably be a fun atmosphere. But just win, baby.

Quote from: TrotskyGood question.  No idea whether Pedo State travels for hockey.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: TrotskyGood question.  No idea whether Pedo State travels for hockey.

They don't need to travel so much as that there's bazillions of sports-crazed Penn State grads littered throughout the state. When Penn State has games at the Wells Fargo Center (the big arena in Philly) there are usually about 10,000 Penn State people there going nuts, even though it's 3 hours away. And it's not travelling students.

Plus, Penn State has had a head start on ticket sales, knowing they are going to be there (if they make it).  That said, Cornell fans have a much greater opportunity to buy tix and travel to Allentown than Sioux Falls.  And as good as Penn State's following may be in Pennsylvania, it would not match the sheer lunacy of North Dakota fans - who have already sold out Sioux Falls and will be loud. Heck, North Dakota got 8,000 people or so to show up for a mid-season game in New York City.

Quote from: TrotskyPoint taken on Pedo State.  We don't need any of that if we can avoid it by getting to Worcester or Bridgeport.

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

Quote from: adamwOh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today.  I don't see the point in the exercise.

But by all means - keep posting it - don't mean to stop you :)

FWIW ... I posted an article yesterday where, as I do each year, just write about the different possibilities and caveats. I do make a projection, but at least it's based upon The Matrix, which plays out the rest of the season.

So - have at it.

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2018/02/27_Bracket-ABCs-Late-February.php

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

you do not know penn state. they are huge and they are dedicated if the program is any good. if we play penn state at the garden again it will be MUCH harder to get tickets now that the program is more established.

Quote from: Chris '03

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

I have the opposite feeling. It'd probably be a fun atmosphere. But just win, baby.

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: toddlose

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jim HylaBracketology: This week's movement shows Penn State in, Omaha out (http://www.uscho.com/2018/02/28/bracketology-weeks-movement-shows-penn-state-omaha/)

I'd suspect quite the crowd for Allentown.

Oh, great, now there's two regional hosts who might get de facto home games against unlucky much higher seeds.

This is such a fucked-up system!!

I have a feeling our attendance would be significantly higher than psu. I would take it.

you do not know penn state. they are huge and they are dedicated if the program is any good. if we play penn state at the garden again it will be MUCH harder to get tickets now that the program is more established.

I'm friends with close to a dozen psu alum. They are all football nuts. When it comes to their hockey team, I am the one keeping them informed. They are all clueless on how their hockey team is doing.

I follow Cornell hockey more than any other Cornell sport (as many here also do), but I know what  other teams are doing well and, more commonly, not so well.

Quote from: toddloseRandom question (as I was not there that year):

How was the penn state turn out for the msg game vs Cornell a few years ago? In regards to percentage of crowd.

Quote from: LGR14PSU sells every single one of its games.  I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: LGR14PSU sells every single one of its games.  I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.

Allentown is 175 miles from State College.  The same distance as Ithaca.

Quote from: LGR14

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: LGR14PSU sells every single one of its games.  I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.

Allentown is 175 miles from State College.  The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

Quote from: LGR14

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: LGR14PSU sells every single one of its games.  I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.

Allentown is 175 miles from State College.  The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

Quote from: adamwOh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today.  I don't see the point in the exercise.

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwOh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today.  I don't see the point in the exercise.

The point is I sit down waiting for dinner, open my phone to a 3 page discussion. Need I say more?

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: LGR14

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: LGR14PSU sells every single one of its games.  I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.

Allentown is 175 miles from State College.  The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: adamwOh yeah - this is the area where I usually give Jim grief, not the polls :) .... I just cannot stand - for decades at this point - the idea of posting "bracketology" articles based on "what it would be if the season ended today" - because ...... it doesn't end today.  I don't see the point in the exercise.

The point is I sit down waiting for dinner, open my phone to a 3 page discussion. Need I say more?

The point is there are too many days in between games that we need to find things to obsess about.

Please eliminate Tuesdays.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: LGR14

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: LGR14PSU sells every single one of its games.  I'm not sure why all of you think that they won't attend an NCAA regional being hosted on their own campus.

Allentown is 175 miles from State College.  The same distance as Ithaca.

Ah I have been overlooking the "Allentown" part this whole time. I join the calls that it is inane to call PSU (or any team) the "host."

175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

Those are western miles.  In the west you drive ten miles to your mailbox.

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.

Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan).  NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well.  Like Wisco fans.  I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.

Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan).  NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well.  Like Wisco fans.  I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.

Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan).  NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well.  Like Wisco fans.  I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: Dafatone175 miles? Sioux Falls is 320 miles from NoDak.

As has been proven time and again, North Dakota fans would travel 10,000 people to Jupiter to see their team play.

Sure. I just hate them.

Plenty of fan bases out there to really hate (Minny, BC, Maine, Michigan).  NoDak always seems to me to be just really into their team and really know the sport well.  Like Wisco fans.  I mean, plus the whole Nazi thing.

Several years ago when we played a two-game series out there, a bunch of Cornell fans left the arena to find that someone had poured water all over their cars in deeply sub-freezing weather.

You know those scenes in movies when the protagonists, usually modern-day city-folk walk into a Western saloon or some other "fish-out-of-water" situation and everyone in the bar stops what they're doing and follows them with their heads and usually one old guy chews really slowly?  THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED TO US IN GRAND FORKS when we went to bars and restaurants with our red gear on. Eventually one brave guy came over to ask us an innocuous question and saw that we weren't assholes then it was mostly all good and we made friends with a few tentative groups who still looked at us with suspicion.

Quote from: KenPhttp://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

Quote from: BearLoverI'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than  their NCAA seeding.

Quote from: KenPhttp://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: KenPhttp://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than  their NCAA seeding.

Quote from: TrotskySeems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site.  St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right?  (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game."  If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked.  I would expect that to be the 4.  If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud.  The West is big.).

Quote from: adamwWe already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: TrotskySeems to me that HC winning would be a godsend for the committee since it locks down a presumptive patsy and a site.  St. Cloud gets the Bemidji 2009 Memorial Reward and goes to Worcester and the committee only has to worry about the 1/4 permutations of the other 3 sites.

It's iron clad that the committee will never cross over a tier line, right?  (e.g., they would never move the #4 overall to a 2-seed to duck a North Dakota "4 seed home game."  If that's set in stone I don't see a lot of chaos -- just somebody getting inevitably and deterministically well and truly fucked.  I would expect that to be the 4.  If Mankato sneaks into the 4 I'd practically guarantee it -- Mankato is closer to Sioux Falls than is NoDak (as is, for that matter, St. Cloud.  The West is big.).

That is correct - not crossing over is sacrosanct - though I've argued many times it shouldn't be, in extreme cases.

You're right that it's not chaos, in the sense that it makes things obvious about who goes where, but it is messier, for sure.  Even if North Dakota doesn't make it, but Holy Cross does ... it means that instead of (relatively) nearby Sioux Falls, St. Cloud will be forced to go to Worcester.  We already know St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls if North Dakota was there - but Holy Cross' involvement would be an extra scenario where St. Cloud can't go to Sioux Falls.

Quote from: KGR11I can understand that host schools should be rewarded for their efforts

Quote from: upprdeckWhat am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Quote from: upprdeckany school can host, it just may not be super local..  Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Quote from: scoop85

Quote from: upprdeckany school can host, it just may not be super local..  Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Were we to ever host (fat chance, I know), I think either Syracuse or Binghamton would be the possible venues.  Both cities have AHL rinks that would seem suitable.

Quote from: upprdeckany school can host, it just may not be super local..  Cornell would do it(Buff/albany/pitt?) but our Ath Dept can barely run our own venue let alone organize one someplace else.

But Holy cross is not winning their tourney

What am I missing, why would SCS fly if ND is not in it.  wouldnt they just try to flip around some other #4 seed?

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: KenPhttp://www.playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html

St. Cloud has basically wrapped up the #1 overall.  Cornell is one of the next five teams vying for #2-6, with the rest of the pack looking at #7 and lower.

Interesting to see the gradual decline in our chances for a #1 seed.  Still pretty good... but the odds of a #2 seed are now up to 28%.  

Also interesting also that Penn State is now virtually a lock with high probability of being a #3 seed.

"Oh no, here comes BearLover with another one of his rants about the prediction model." This model is helpful in that it informs us what our range of PWR outcomes is. But don't put too much faith in that 28% number. The model is overrating our chances of beating each of our opponents in the ECAC tournament.

Unfortunately, it's likely the Atlantic Hockey auto bid will be the only significantly easier matchup this year, so I'm personally focusing on Cornell hoisting the Whitelaw Cup, rather than  their NCAA seeding.

Quote from: upprdeckanyone heard any more about the effort to go back on site for the first round?

Quote from: upprdeckAlways hope, and the fact they are holding off with 2020 site announcements.I know its a long shot, just seemed after multiple stories last spring nothing has been announced either way. perhaps waiting to see attendance again this year.

"The three new options that are expected to be discussed are allowing home venues to bid on predetermined regional sites, moving the four regionals to the home venue of the No. 1 seed or turning the first weekend into eight best-of-three series on the campus of the higher seed."

Quote from: upprdeckI am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3.

Quote from: upprdeck"The three new options that are expected to be discussed are (1) allowing home venues to bid on predetermined regional sites, (2) moving the four regionals to the home venue of the No. 1 seed or (3) turning the first weekend into eight best-of-three series on the campus of the higher seed."

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: upprdeckI am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3.

In a perfect world the 1R and QF are best of 3 at campus site.  The F4 is perfect the way it already is.

Quote from: TrotskyKeep the regionals.  Get rid of hosts and intraconference restriction and concentrate on seeding by actual region.   Have a very tight rotation around 2-3 true regional sites

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: upprdeckI am all in on best of 3.. in a best world all the rounds would be best of 3.

In a perfect world the 1R and QF are best of 3 at campus site.  The F4 is perfect the way it already is.

Ugh. No, I'm with Al: No best of 3. The NCAA basketball tournament is so popular BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSETS. Cornell could have advanced in 1991 after an incredible victory, but instead it's just a footnote in all the "Why Yost Rules" legends. The top teams already have tons of advantages...why give them more?  

I'm all on board with your 4th suggestion.

Quote from: TrotskyThere's a 4th solution, too.  Keep the regionals.  Get rid of hosts and intraconference restriction and concentrate on seeding by actual region.  Have a very tight rotation around 2-3 true regional sites:

West: St. Paul, Denver
Central: Chicago, Detroit
East: Albany, Worcester
Northeast: Manchester, Boston

Break the PWR standings into 4 bands; within band, start with the best team and seed to the closest site.  Rinse and repeat.

So, right now (guessing at mileage):

Sioux Falls

1. (1) St. Cloud
2. (5) Mankato
3. (9) Minn-Duluth
4. (13) Minnesota

Allentown

1. (2) Notre Dame
2. (6) Denver
3. (11) Penn State
4. (14) UNO

Worcester

1. (3) Cornell
2. (7) Ohio State
3. (10) Northeastern
4. (15) North Dakota

Bridgeport

1. (4) Ohio State
2. (8) Clarkson
3. (12) Providence
4. (22) Mercyhurst

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82OOC, isn't the Bracketology "rule" that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference?  if so, why is anybody dealing with North Dakota?  BC is in first place in Hockey East, despite their PWR position. So they are the 15 seed, not NoDak.

JH

Quote from: adamwThe Yale point is a perfect encapsulation of why best-of-3 on-campus regionals are bad, as I've argued ad nauseum forever. ... My argument comes down to this ... The Pairwise is not precise enough to give the higher seeded teams such an advantage. The Pairwise is an imprecise tool. This isn't conference standings where everyone plays each other during the season and they "earn" the higher seed. The Pairwise is good enough for selecting the field, but once in there, it's unfair to give double advantages. The higher seeded teams often get the benefit through the year of playing more home games than the "smaller" schools. So - Yale got the chance to beat North Dakota and Minnesota in the Regionals on neutral ice, in front of friends and family. So be it.

Quote from: adamwThe Pairwise is good enough for selecting the field, but once in there, it's unfair to give double advantages. The higher seeded teams often get the benefit through the year of playing more home games than the "smaller" schools. So - Yale got the chance to beat North Dakota and Minnesota in the Regionals on neutral ice, in front of friends and family. So be it.

Quote from: RichHAlso, Holy Cross over Minnesota.

Quote from: TrotskyThat's a little disingenuous since it cherry picks one case that fits your narrative.  We would need an exhaustive list of the times that higher seeds were f-cked by playing in situations advantageous to lower seeds.

Quote from: TrotskyI could live with that.

Quote from: upprdeckOk. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again?  Is the argument that  PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it?  Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

if best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

and TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service..  best of 3 means more games. more revenue ersatz Viagra commercials, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

Quote from: upprdeckOk. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again?  Is the argument that  PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it?  Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

Quote from: upprdeckif best of 3 is bad then why do we do it in the 1st round where it has the least chance of being an upset?

Quote from: upprdeckand TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service..  best of 3 means more games. more revenue, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

Quote from: upprdeckif it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

Quote from: upprdeckOk. so explain the anti 3 game home series thing to me again?  Is the argument that  PWR is flawed so you give a team home ice that doesnt deserve it?  Dont we do that now in the current system by trying to keep teams close to home anyway and then completely reward and undeserving team by playing at home if they get in?

Quote from: upprdeckand TV could care less about knowing sites in advance, they are a content driven service..  best of 3 means more games. more revenue, also some more cost.. hosting on home campus helps keep that cost down since they could actually have hosts have a break even model not a profit model. 8 teams would not have to travel instead of 16 traveling.

if it is all about upsets then keep the current system, but attendance is down across the board and this may prop it up a bit maybe not. but it would add to the excitement in the building and not so many empty seats, which is also a bad thing for TV.

Quote from: upprdeckI have talked with ESPN about the tv issues and crowd issues as well and thats not the answer i got in either case..  the fact they are even looking at this switch is completely crowd/ticket related. The Lax model may come into pay as well.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82OOC, isn't the Bracketology "rule" that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference?  if so, why is anybody dealing with North Dakota?  BC is in first place in Hockey East, despite their PWR position. So they are the 15 seed, not NoDak.

JH

The "rule" is that we assume the conference leader is the AQ for that conference if nobody from that conference would qualify for AL.  It's a convention for reserving the slot for the conference (essentially, it is the Atlantic Hockey Quota).  Northeastern is #10 (and Providence #12) so we don't consider BC.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Oh.
 OK, I did not know that.  That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Trotsky

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82That's not how USCHO is doing it...see Jim's post with the most recent bracketology.  They have BC, not NoDak.

Oh.
 OK, I did not know that.  That's a perverse decision, but I am certainly down with perversity.

I'm not sure what to think about that.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Still a lot of question marks.  One week to go.

• Cornell wins out AND
• St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)

• ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
• ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
• WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
• Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
• NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
• NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
• NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
• NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

Quote from: KenPCornell gets the #1 overall IF:

• Cornell wins out AND
• St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)

The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR.  Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:

• ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
• ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
• WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
• Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
• NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
• NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
• NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
• NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82If BC wins out, Minnesota is out, we get the CHA autobid and St. Cloud gets Penn State. But if St. Cloud finishes first, they get the CHA autobid and we get Penn State.

Quote from: SwampyIn a way, given how Cornell has played most games against teams that are highly regarded (H/D weekend, all 4 Q games, BU, 2nd K game) versus teams that might be regarded as meh (2nd Brown game, RPI, 1st Miami game), I'm beginning to think I'd prefer Cornell to play, say, Minnesota rather than a team our guys might subconsciously think is a cupcake, like one from AH. Remember Bemidji State.

Quote from: KenP15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes.   I'd be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

Quote from: ursusminor

Quote from: KenP15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes.   I'd be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

Isn't it 2^14 * 3 = 98,304?

Quote from: KenP

Quote from: ursusminor

Quote from: KenP15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes.   I'd be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

Isn't it 2^14 * 3 = 98,304?

ummmmmmmmmm... i think it's time for some random emoji.....  ::burnout:: ::crazy:: ::panic::
Actually, it's 49,152.

Quote from: KenP15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes.   I'd be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: KenP15 games left, one can be a tie. That means 2^15 + 1 = 32,769 possible outcomes.   I'd be curious to see a version of the CHN Pairwise Probability Matrix that ignores KRACH and simply shows haw many (or what percentage of) scenarios work out to who is in the tourney at what seeding.

I tried this a bunch of times before giving up on figuring out a good way to code out, and going with the Monte Carlo method.

It's probably better with Monte Carlo anyway, since not all scenarios are equally likely, so it doesn't do much good to treat them as such.

But yes, I would love to be able to run something that goes through all scenarios. It's easier now than in years past, when everyone had semis this weekend and therefore there were over 3 million permutations. Now, with two conferences already to their finals, there's far fewer. So I could brute force it.  But it's still a programming struggle.  Someone with much more experience in this area could probably help me out - but I googled endlessly on it and came up empty.

Quote from: KenPCornell gets the #1 overall IF:

• Cornell wins out AND
• St. Cloud is held to one point or less (semi-final loss AND loss or tie in the consolation game)

The CHN Monte Carlo simulation shows a non-zero chance of Cornell at the #5 PWR.  Denver needs to beat St. Cloud in the finals AND Ohio State needs to lose AND all RPI factors work to bump Ohio State up to #4 despite a loss:

• ECAC Semifinal #1: Princeton def. Cornell
• ECAC Semifinal #2: Harvard def. Clarkson
• ECAC Championship: Harvard def. Princeton
• Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College def. Boston University
• Hockey East Semifinal #2: Northeastern def. Providence
• Hockey East Championship: Northeastern def. Boston College
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Robert Morris def. Mercyhurst
• Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Air Force def. Canisius
• Atlantic Hockey Championship: Robert Morris def. Air Force
• WCHA Championship: Michigan Tech def. Northern Michigan
• Big Ten Championship: Notre Dame def. Ohio State
• NCHC Semifinal #1: St. Cloud State def. North Dakota
• NCHC Semifinal #2: Denver def. Minnesota-Duluth
• NCHC Championship: Denver def. St. Cloud State
• NCHC Consolation: North Dakota ties Minnesota-Duluth

Quote from: DafatoneIf Sucks beats Clarkson, I believe North Dakota is out.

Quote from: DafatoneIf Sucks beats Clarkson, I believe North Dakota is out.

Quote from: RichHIf Clarkson loses, North Dakota is out.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: RichHIf Clarkson loses, North Dakota is out.

NoDak has a consolation game tomorrow--not sure if you were factoring that into your calculations.

Quote from: DafatoneSo, North Dakota gets in if they win their consolation game AND Clarkson wins AND the winner of Northeastern and Providence beats BU.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneSo, North Dakota gets in if they win their consolation game AND Clarkson wins AND the winner of Northeastern and Providence beats BU.

But I assume the selection committee would send one of the western teams (ND/Ohio State) west to play them?

Quote from: martyIsn't Denver about to push us to #5 in the computer rankings?

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: martyIsn't Denver about to push us to #5 in the computer rankings?

They're too far behind us, believe it or not.

Quote from: marty

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: martyIsn't Denver about to push us to #5 in the computer rankings?

They're too far behind us, believe it or not.

Good news unless it leads to Sioux Falls.

Quote from: Chris '03

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneSo, North Dakota gets in if they win their consolation game AND Clarkson wins AND the winner of Northeastern and Providence beats BU.

But I assume the selection committee would send one of the western teams (ND/Ohio State) west to play them?

If the 1s are scsu, notre dame, osu, cornell and the 4s are Minnesota, North Dakota, WCHA, AHA, I think Cornell would go west. Top two would get the autobids and osu can't play Minnesota.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: marty

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: martyIsn't Denver about to push us to #5 in the computer rankings?

They're too far behind us, believe it or not.

Good news unless it leads to Sioux Falls.

Yup. Root for Princeton, Minnesota-Duluth, and/or (not)BU.

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: marty

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: martyIsn't Denver about to push us to #5 in the computer rankings?

They're too far behind us, believe it or not.

Good news unless it leads to Sioux Falls.

Yup. Root for Princeton, Minnesota-Duluth, and/or (not)BU.

Doesn't a BU win take away another at-large slot, meaning NoDak gets bounced?

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Chris '03

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneSo, North Dakota gets in if they win their consolation game AND Clarkson wins AND the winner of Northeastern and Providence beats BU.

But I assume the selection committee would send one of the western teams (ND/Ohio State) west to play them?

If the 1s are scsu, notre dame, osu, cornell and the 4s are Minnesota, North Dakota, WCHA, AHA, I think Cornell would go west. Top two would get the autobids and osu can't play Minnesota.

What does OSU not playing Minnesota have to do with Cornell going west? OSU not playing Minnesota means OSU would play NoDak and therefore go west instead of us, who play Minnesota, right?

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Why would we end up in Sioux Falls and not Ohio State/Note Dame?

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Why would we end up in Sioux Falls and not Ohio State/Note Dame?

That's a good point. I figure if we wind up in 4th, we get the least preferential regional, Not a lot of sense in sending Notre Dame or Ohio State to Worcester or Bridgeport, I suppose.

On a related note, Allentown isn't Midwest.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Why would we end up in Sioux Falls and not Ohio State/Note Dame?

That's a good point. I figure if we wind up in 4th, we get the least preferential regional, Not a lot of sense in sending Notre Dame or Ohio State to Worcester or Bridgeport, I suppose.

On a related note, Allentown isn't Midwest.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Why would we end up in Sioux Falls and not Ohio State/Note Dame?

That's a good point. I figure if we wind up in 4th, we get the least preferential regional, Not a lot of sense in sending Notre Dame or Ohio State to Worcester or Bridgeport, I suppose.

On a related note, Allentown isn't Midwest.

There will only be one eastern 1-seed this year. So why send them to the only western regional if not doing so would mess up the "serpentine order" (1v16, 2v15, etc.) only marginally or not at all?

Quote from: redGrinchMight be a bigger risk if DU wins and gets a 1 seed.  neither DU or SCSU can plan North Dakota.  So would they send Notre Dame there?  even still, I can't imagine the NCAA sending the only #1 seed that can bus to a regional out west.

Quote from: DafatoneSo the question is, does the committee think that an eastern regional or a western regional is more "home" to OSU and ND?

Quote from: Josh 03Of course if Denver knocks Cornell to the #5 spot, none of that matters.

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

Quote from: Chris H82What time will the regionals be announced on Sunday?

Quote from: Chris H82What time will the regionals be announced on Sunday?

Quote from: RichH

Quote from: DafatoneTo summarize, it looks like NoDak gets in if NoDak, Clarkson, and Providence win. If NoDak gets in and Ohio State wins, we (likely) wind up in Sioux Falls.

I say likely because I'm not 100% certain they won't pull some sort of rabbit out of a hat to avoid that.

The North Dakota Won't Ever Dies are leading 2-0, of course.

Quote from: Jim HylaSo is it correct that if either BU or Princeton win, ND is out?

Quote from: jaybertSo...what are the chances Cornell ends up in Bridgeport?

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82So does Michigan Tech.

And Princeton is hanging on to a 1-0 lead.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82So does Michigan Tech.

And Princeton is hanging on to a 1-0 lead.

Clarkson scores 6-on-4 with 6.4 seconds left to tie it up. Going to OT.

Quote from: andyw2100

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82So does Michigan Tech.

And Princeton is hanging on to a 1-0 lead.

Clarkson scores 6-on-4 with 6.4 seconds left to tie it up. Going to OT.

It was 6 on 5. The penalty had expired about twenty seconds earlier.

Quote from: upprdeckstill need ND to win to stay top 4 seed, but does that matter the way they play the game

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Assuming Denver wins (and they're ahead 3-0), here's what I see:

If OSU and Clarkson win, we finish 4th. Likely we play Minn. Duluth.
If Notre Dame and Clarkson win, we finish 3rd (with Denver 4th).  Likely we play BU.

If OSU and Princeton win, we finish 4th. Likely we play BU.
If Notre Dame and Princeton win, we finish 3rd (with Denver 4th).  Since Princeton would be the natural bracket partner for #3, we can't play them.  Probably they swap Michigan Tech to us and give Princeton to Notre Dame.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: upprdeckstill need ND to win to stay top 4 seed, but does that matter the way they play the game

Who needs a ND win to stay a top 4 seed?

Quote from: BeeeejPRINCETON WINS

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BeeeejPRINCETON WINS

I read Adam's column from this morning. Does this mean the Goofers are out?

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BeeeejPRINCETON WINS

I read Adam's column from this morning. Does this mean the Goofers are out?

No, Minnesota-Duluth is out. Minnesota should be the lowest at-large now.

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BeeeejPRINCETON WINS

I read Adam's column from this morning. Does this mean the Goofers are out?

No, Minnesota-Duluth is out. Minnesota should be the lowest at-large now.

You are the committee (which seems to be struggling a bit right now) had UMD in and Minnesota out, in one combination. Might rely on a few things.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Dafatone

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BeeeejPRINCETON WINS

I read Adam's column from this morning. Does this mean the Goofers are out?

No, Minnesota-Duluth is out. Minnesota should be the lowest at-large now.

You are the committee (which seems to be struggling a bit right now) had UMD in and Minnesota out, in one combination. Might rely on a few things.

Fair enough - at this moment, Minnesota is barely in #12 ahead of UMD. I'm not gonna do the permutations, someone else can.

QuoteMinnesota-Duluth's spot is more precarious than it seemed a few days ago thanks to its semifinal loss to Denver. If Duluth loses the NCHC consolation game, and the ECAC and Hockey East champs steal the 13th and 14 slots, then UMD is out because it would drop below Minnesota in the Pairwise.

If UMD manages to stay in, then Minnesota would be out in the above scenario.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Yeah, the Goofers would be #12.

So it looks like we get either Michigan Tech or BU.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Yeah, the Goofers would be #12.

So it looks like we get either Michigan Tech or BU.

Edit.  I take that back.  If Notre Dame wins, Duluth is #12 and the Goofers are out.  If OSU wins, Minny is #12 and Duluth is out.

Quote from: BigRedHockeyFanOhio St. outplaying ND.  4:40 left in 3rd.

Quote from: BigRedHockeyFanAudio from ND

http://www.und.com/collegesportslive/?media=572755

Quote from: upprdeckso a nd win makes us a 3 and go to CT, an osu win makes us a 4 and go to  MA.. seems like playing BU in CT would be just a small bit better

Quote from: upprdeckshould be interesting seeding though if ND wins and PSU has to go to allentown .

SCS - Mich - MD - air force
ND -  Prov - psu - Princ
cornell - Minn St - Ne - BU
OSU - Denver - Clark - MTech

thats a bit messed up though. could easily have 3 all conf finals.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: upprdeckshould be interesting seeding though if ND wins and PSU has to go to allentown .

SCS - Mich - MD - air force
ND -  Prov - psu - Princ
cornell - Minn St - Ne - BU
OSU - Denver - Clark - MTech

thats a bit messed up though. could easily have 3 all conf finals.

There's only so much you can do to prevent that with 4 or 5 teams from a single conference going. They only really care about avoiding intraconference in the first round. I'd be fine with an all-ECAC championship game again, as long as Cornell's one of the teams.

Quote from: upprdeckreally makes no sense to reward BU with a home game though as a 4 seed.

strange how PWR changed though since that same set of winners an hr ago left us a 3..

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: upprdeckreally makes no sense to reward BU with a home game though as a 4 seed.

strange how PWR changed though since that same set of winners an hr ago left us a 3..

According to CHN, we're still a 3.

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

I think he's matching the #1 seeds according to their finish in the pairwise: 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, & 4-13.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

I think he's matching the #1 seeds according to their finish in the pairwise: 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, & 4-13.

Cornell is the 3 matched with the 13 in this

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

I think he's matching the #1 seeds according to their finish in the pairwise: 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, & 4-13.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

I think he's matching the #1 seeds according to their finish in the pairwise: 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, & 4-13.

Cornell is the 3 matched with the 13 in this

Yes, but we can't play Princeton in the first round, so you make as few switches as possible to fix that.

Quote from: SwampyI think Jeff has it right, with the ND group in Worcester. If you're going to reward a team with what's essentially a home game, reward #7 instead of #13.

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

I think he's matching the #1 seeds according to their finish in the pairwise: 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, & 4-13.

Cornell is the 3 matched with the 13 in this

Yes, but we can't play Princeton in the first round, so you make as few switches as possible to fix that.

Right, and my example above is the same number of switches as this example

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: SwampyI think Jeff has it right, with the ND group in Worcester. If you're going to reward a team with what's essentially a home game, reward #7 instead of #13.

To be fair, I'm not sure Bridgeport is any less a home game for Providence than Worcester.  It's an hour's drive versus about 45 minutes.  But I agree with your sentiment.  That said #13 just won the head-to-head against #7, so who's to say they don't reward that.

Quote from: upprdeckreally makes no sense to reward BU with a home game though as a 4 seed.

strange how PWR changed though since that same set of winners an hr ago left us a 3..

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Swampy

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Notre Dame wins.  

I think two brackets are set:

1. SCSU - 8. Michigan - 9. Northeastern - 16. Air Force (Sioux Falls)
2. Notre Dame - 7. Providence - 10. Clarkson - 15. Mich. Tech

the other two Brackets are a bit trickier.  My guess is it's.

3. Cornell - 6 Mankato - 12. Duluth - 13. BU
4. OSU  - 5. Denver - 11. Penn State - 14. Princeton (Allentown)

So it comes down to whether you put us and BU in Worcester and Notre Dame / Providence / Clarkson in Bridgeport or vice versa.

Couldn't you just as easily give Cornell Mich Tech, give Ohio State BU, and give Notre Dame Princeton?

I think he's matching the #1 seeds according to their finish in the pairwise: 1-16, 2-15, 3-14, & 4-13.

Cornell is the 3 matched with the 13 in this

Yes, but we can't play Princeton in the first round, so you make as few switches as possible to fix that.

Right, and my example above is the same number of switches as this example

Unless I'm missing something, you have to move one of those teams twice to get the result you're talking about, and there's no reason to move them the second time. In any event, this is still all speculation, and we'll know in 12 hours and 47 minutes.

Quote from: BigRedHockeyFanOne Possibility

Sioux Falls
St. Cloud(1) Vs. AF(16)
Michigan(8) vs. Northeastern(9)

Allentown
Notre Dame(2) vs. Mich Tech(15)
Minn St.(6) vs. Clarkson(10)

Worcester
Cornell(3) vs BU(13)
Providence(7) vs. Penn St.(11)

Bridgeport
Ohio St.(4) vs. Princeton(14)
Denver(5) vs. Minn Duluth(12)

Quote from: BigRedHockeyFanOne Possibility

Sioux Falls
St. Cloud(1) vs. AF(16)
Michigan(8) vs. Northeastern(9)

Allentown
Notre Dame(2) vs. Mich Tech(15)
Minn St.(6) vs. Clarkson(10)

Worcester
Cornell(3) vs BU(13)
Providence(7) vs. Penn St.(11)

Bridgeport
Ohio St.(4) vs. Princeton(14)
Denver(5) vs. Minn Duluth(12)

Quote from: BigRedHockeyFanOne Possibility

Sioux Falls
St. Cloud(1) Vs. AF(16)
Michigan(8) vs. Northeastern(9)

Allentown
Notre Dame(2) vs. Mich Tech(15)
Minn St.(6) vs. Clarkson(10)

Worcester
Cornell(3) vs BU(13)
Providence(7) vs. Penn St.(11)

Bridgeport
Ohio St.(4) vs. Princeton(14)
Denver(5) vs. Minn Duluth(12)

Quote from: BearLoverWTF why does everyone keep pairing Cornell vs BU? Pair them vs Michigan Tech, an equally valid opponent, and one that Cornell won't be sub-45% to beat... ::crazy::

Quote from: BeeeejDoesn't Penn State have to stay in Allentown?

Quote from: BearLoverWTF why does everyone keep pairing Cornell vs BU? Pair them vs Michigan Tech, an equally valid opponent, and one that Cornell won't be sub-45% to beat... ::crazy::

Quote from: BigRedHockeyFan

Quote from: BeeeejDoesn't Penn State have to stay in Allentown?

That causes other problems but you are probably right.

Quote from: upprdeckmost posts i see think cornell plays BU in Mass..  still don't see them doing that with bu being such a low seed and cornell so high

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverWTF why does everyone keep pairing Cornell vs BU? Pair them vs Michigan Tech, an equally valid opponent, and one that Cornell won't be sub-45% to beat... ::crazy::

Because typically you assign teams to the regionals in order from highest seed to lowest, so BU will get assigned before MTU.

Quote from: upprdeckmost posts i see think cornell plays BU in Mass..  still dont see them doing that with bu being such a low seed and cornell so high

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverWTF why does everyone keep pairing Cornell vs BU? Pair them vs Michigan Tech, an equally valid opponent, and one that Cornell won't be sub-45% to beat... ::crazy::

Because typically you assign teams to the regionals in order from highest seed to lowest, so BU will get assigned before MTU.

There's no rule you have to assign them that way. There are 16 teams here, it's not rocket science. We/the selection committee are smart enough to figure it out without such heuristics.

Quote from: BeeeejAdam's "final" projection:

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2018/03/17_Bracket-ABCs-Final-Projection.php

Sioux Falls
1. St. Cloud State vs. 16. Air Force
8. Michigan vs. 9. Northeastern

Allentown
3. Cornell vs. 15. Michigan Tech
5. Denver vs. 11. Penn State

Worcester
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Boston University
6. Minnesota State vs. 12. Minnesota-Duluth

Bridgeport
2. Notre Dame vs. 14. Princeton
7. Providence vs. 10. Clarkson

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverWTF why does everyone keep pairing Cornell vs BU? Pair them vs Michigan Tech, an equally valid opponent, and one that Cornell won't be sub-45% to beat... ::crazy::

Because typically you assign teams to the regionals in order from highest seed to lowest, so BU will get assigned before MTU.

There's no rule you have to assign them that way. There are 16 teams here, it's not rocket science. We/the selection committee are smart enough to figure it out without such heuristics.

I didn't say there's a rule. I said typically. You're aiming for a particular result, the committee has a process. You asked, and I answered.

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: BeeeejAdam's "final" projection:

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2018/03/17_Bracket-ABCs-Final-Projection.php

Sioux Falls
1. St. Cloud State vs. 16. Air Force
8. Michigan vs. 9. Northeastern

Allentown
3. Cornell vs. 15. Michigan Tech
5. Denver vs. 11. Penn State

Worcester
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Boston University
6. Minnesota State vs. 12. Minnesota-Duluth

Bridgeport
2. Notre Dame vs. 14. Princeton
7. Providence vs. 10. Clarkson

From his mouth to God's ears!  I would take that in a heartbeat.  That saves me vacation time, fuel costs, and I get to sleep in my own bed.  

So it'll never happen.  ::bang::

Quote from: andyw2100

Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82

Quote from: BeeeejAdam's "final" projection:

https://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2018/03/17_Bracket-ABCs-Final-Projection.php

Sioux Falls
1. St. Cloud State vs. 16. Air Force
8. Michigan vs. 9. Northeastern

Allentown
3. Cornell vs. 15. Michigan Tech
5. Denver vs. 11. Penn State

Worcester
4. Ohio State vs. 13. Boston University
6. Minnesota State vs. 12. Minnesota-Duluth

Bridgeport
2. Notre Dame vs. 14. Princeton
7. Providence vs. 10. Clarkson

From his mouth to God's ears!  I would take that in a heartbeat.  That saves me vacation time, fuel costs, and I get to sleep in my own bed.  

So it'll never happen.  ::bang::

From a "fairness" standpoint, Adam's bracket makes sense.

Cornell benefits from playing a seed one lower than the "right" one in the first round, but should they advance, they play a seed one higher than the right one in the second round. (Assuming the higher seed wins.)

In the other affected regional, OSU has to play a team seeded one higher than the right seed in the first round, but should they advance they then get to play a team one lower than the right seed in the regional championship. (Again, assuming the higher seed wins.)

Quote from: upprdeckif we get allentown and PSU tickets might be scarce they are already gone on ticketmaster, some on stubhub and who knows how many CU gets

Quote from: andyw2100Who would have thought, at the beginning of the season, that we'd be staying up tonight discussing which regional Cornell was going to be sent to --AS A 1-SEED-- and that while there are still three possible regional sites being discussed, they are all no more than a few hours --DRIVE-- from Ithaca, the NYC metro area, etc.? How cool is --THAT--?

Quote from: BUCUhockeyWhat are the game times for Bridgeport, Allentown and Worcester ?

Quote from: toddloseQuestion for the Bridgeport arena (if sent there). How tough is it to get there by train? Is there a stop within walking distance? Considering all options not involving traveling on 95 north from NJ.

Quote from: Chris '03

Quote from: toddloseQuestion for the Bridgeport arena (if sent there). How tough is it to get there by train? Is there a stop within walking distance? Considering all options not involving traveling on 95 north from NJ.

It's walkable from the train or the ferry from port Jeff.

Quote from: KenPIf you are trying to maximize ticket sales AND Penn State has effectively sold out Allentown already, then Cornell in Bridgeport makes most sense.

Quote from: upprdeckone good thing mich fans are split with bball going to sweet 16

Quote from: BearLoverCasually getting screwed every single year.

Quote from: upprdeckcornell is taking requests in the cornell allotment thru email.

Quote from: upprdecksuch a strange bracket though.. they didnt even attempt to keep bracket integrity , nor protect the high seeds

Quote from: upprdeckworcester seats 12k.  if harvard/bc/prov didnt bring anyone in 2016. i dont think finding tickets will be issue. i doubt BU/NE bring much more.  Mich may well travel but how many?

Quote from: marty

Quote from: upprdecksuch a strange bracket though.. they didnt even attempt to keep bracket integrity , nor protect the high seeds

As I explained in an earlier post, they protected Notre Dame and gave them the 2 vs 15 matchup they deserved. That means Cornell gets BU.

As far as the seeding of 5-8 vs 1-4 second game possibles there seemed to be shifting for attendance.

My only complaint is that Notre Dame belongs in Allentown sending TOSU to Bridgeport.

And screw BU!

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: marty

Quote from: upprdecksuch a strange bracket though.. they didnt even attempt to keep bracket integrity , nor protect the high seeds

As I explained in an earlier post, they protected Notre Dame and gave them the 2 vs 15 matchup they deserved. That means Cornell gets BU.

As far as the seeding of 5-8 vs 1-4 second game possibles there seemed to be shifting for attendance.

My only complaint is that Notre Dame belongs in Allentown sending TOSU to Bridgeport.

And screw BU!

I think they were trying to get the Princeton fans in Allentown :)

Quote from: marty

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: marty

Quote from: upprdecksuch a strange bracket though.. they didnt even attempt to keep bracket integrity , nor protect the high seeds

As I explained in an earlier post, they protected Notre Dame and gave them the 2 vs 15 matchup they deserved. That means Cornell gets BU.

As far as the seeding of 5-8 vs 1-4 second game possibles there seemed to be shifting for attendance.

My only complaint is that Notre Dame belongs in Allentown sending TOSU to Bridgeport.

And screw BU!

I think they were trying to get the Princeton fans in Allentown :)

I'm sure you're right. But even though  I am not a Notre Dame fan,  why should they have to travel to New England two years in a row?

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: marty

Quote from: Jim Hyla

Quote from: marty

Quote from: upprdecksuch a strange bracket though.. they didnt even attempt to keep bracket integrity , nor protect the high seeds

As I explained in an earlier post, they protected Notre Dame and gave them the 2 vs 15 matchup they deserved. That means Cornell gets BU.

As far as the seeding of 5-8 vs 1-4 second game possibles there seemed to be shifting for attendance.

My only complaint is that Notre Dame belongs in Allentown sending TOSU to Bridgeport.

And screw BU!

I think they were trying to get the Princeton fans in Allentown :)

I'm sure you're right. But even though  I am not a Notre Dame fan,  why should they have to travel to New England two years in a row?

Actually I was trying to be funny.::cry::There may be fewer Princeton fans, than Harvard fans. So I doubt they were trying to help them, but this is the NCAA, so..............

Quote from: Josh 03

Quote from: martyI'm sure you're right. But even though  I am not a Notre Dame fan,  why should they have to travel to New England two years in a row?

Driving wise from South Bend, Bridgeport is not all that more of a drive for fans than Allentown. Maybe 11.5 hour drive for a local fan over a 9.5 hour drive. Bridgeport is more friendly for Irish fans in the New York and New England hubs to attend than Allentown. And as has been widely discussed here, Allentown will be very Penn State partisan with them hosting while Bridgeport, though it will include Providence, is a bit more neutral. There's not another city that makes more sense.

If they put in a successful bid to host in a city closet to home, they would be close to home. Without that, you get sent where the committee thinks makes the most sense.

Quote from: underskilldidn't we beat BC in Worcester in 2003?

Quote from: djk26I think we would find reason to complain if Cornell's regional were Brown, RIT and Alaska Anchorage.  And the games were played at Lynah Rink.  "That's not fair...the other regions get better preparation for the Frozen Four."

It's the NCAA tournament.  There are no easy games.  We lost in the semifinals of our conference tournament, we have a loss to RPI (#58 in the Pairwise) on our resume and we are a #1 seed, we did't get sent west, and our opponent is a team we have beaten this season.

I realize I am oversimplifying a lot, and BU is a LOT better than they were in November.  I really expect Cornell to lose (just based on previous NCAA tournaments), but I will still cheer them on.  I just never expect that we will get an "easy" regional (and really no team ever draws a cakewalk), especially when the committee has to work around the "no intraconference matchups in the first round" rule.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: djk26I think we would find reason to complain if Cornell's regional were Brown, RIT and Alaska Anchorage.  And the games were played at Lynah Rink.  "That's not fair...the other regions get better preparation for the Frozen Four."

It's the NCAA tournament.  There are no easy games.  We lost in the semifinals of our conference tournament, we have a loss to RPI (#58 in the Pairwise) on our resume and we are a #1 seed, we did't get sent west, and our opponent is a team we have beaten this season.

I realize I am oversimplifying a lot, and BU is a LOT better than they were in November.  I really expect Cornell to lose (just based on previous NCAA tournaments), but I will still cheer them on.  I just never expect that we will get an "easy" regional (and really no team ever draws a cakewalk), especially when the committee has to work around the "no intraconference matchups in the first round" rule.

i said this to beeeej offline but i am disturbed less by our getting screwed than by bu getting the benefit of a home game, even though obviously i feel the pain more acutely because cornell gets the short end of the stick. if you aren't the "official" host - an already dubious way of earning a home game - it is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: djk26I think we would find reason to complain if Cornell's regional were Brown, RIT and Alaska Anchorage.  And the games were played at Lynah Rink.  "That's not fair...the other regions get better preparation for the Frozen Four."

It's the NCAA tournament.  There are no easy games.  We lost in the semifinals of our conference tournament, we have a loss to RPI (#58 in the Pairwise) on our resume and we are a #1 seed, we did't get sent west, and our opponent is a team we have beaten this season.

I realize I am oversimplifying a lot, and BU is a LOT better than they were in November.  I really expect Cornell to lose (just based on previous NCAA tournaments), but I will still cheer them on.  I just never expect that we will get an "easy" regional (and really no team ever draws a cakewalk), especially when the committee has to work around the "no intraconference matchups in the first round" rule.

i said this to beeeej offline but i am disturbed less by our getting screwed than by bu getting the benefit of a home game, even though obviously i feel the pain more acutely because cornell gets the short end of the stick. if you aren't the "official" host - an already dubious way of earning a home game - it is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: djk26I think we would find reason to complain if Cornell's regional were Brown, RIT and Alaska Anchorage.  And the games were played at Lynah Rink.  "That's not fair...the other regions get better preparation for the Frozen Four."

It's the NCAA tournament.  There are no easy games.  We lost in the semifinals of our conference tournament, we have a loss to RPI (#58 in the Pairwise) on our resume and we are a #1 seed, we did't get sent west, and our opponent is a team we have beaten this season.

I realize I am oversimplifying a lot, and BU is a LOT better than they were in November.  I really expect Cornell to lose (just based on previous NCAA tournaments), but I will still cheer them on.  I just never expect that we will get an "easy" regional (and really no team ever draws a cakewalk), especially when the committee has to work around the "no intraconference matchups in the first round" rule.

i said this to beeeej offline but i am disturbed less by our getting screwed than by bu getting the benefit of a home game, even though obviously i feel the pain more acutely because cornell gets the short end of the stick. if you aren't the "official" host - an already dubious way of earning a home game - it is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.

Quote from: DafatoneYeah but ticket sales.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: ugartei said this to beeeej offline but i am disturbed less by our getting screwed than by bu getting the benefit of a home game, even though obviously i feel the pain more acutely because cornell gets the short end of the stick. if you aren't the "official" host - an already dubious way of earning a home game - it is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.

At this point, though, the only reasonable way to do that is to swap the entire Worcester regional with the entire Bridgeport regional, and even then I don't think you've accomplished much by moving BU an extra 100 miles. The only real alternative is swapping BU for Michigan Tech, and I don't really believe you value punishing BU for "squeaking in" (by winning their conference tournament, btw) more than you value the overall #2 seed's right to play the overall #15.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: DafatoneYeah but ticket sales.

bah. this is an excuse but not a good reason since it is antithetical to "earning" your seed on the ice.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: ugartei said this to beeeej offline but i am disturbed less by our getting screwed than by bu getting the benefit of a home game, even though obviously i feel the pain more acutely because cornell gets the short end of the stick. if you aren't the "official" host - an already dubious way of earning a home game - it is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.

At this point, though, the only reasonable way to do that is to swap the entire Worcester regional with the entire Bridgeport regional, and even then I don't think you've accomplished much by moving BU an extra 100 miles. The only real alternative is swapping BU for Michigan Tech, and I don't really believe you value punishing BU for "squeaking in" (by winning their conference tournament, btw) more than you value the overall #2 seed's right to play the overall #15.

As you know, swapping the regionals was literally my proposal. DRIVE THOSE 100 MILES, TERRIER FANS! Obviously Notre Dame earned their #2 overall place and we shouldn't get to benefit at their expense.

Quote from: ugarteit is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.

Quote from: BearLoverThe best matchup we could get per the pairwise was Michigan Tech. There's nothing in the pairwise that says the 2nd-best team getting the 14th-best team is any more unjust than the 3rd-best team getting the 13th-best team.

Quote from: BearLoverHas Cornell ever gotten a positive outcome from a subjective selection committee decision? They get the 3rd overall seed and get sent to a Massachusetts regional against a Boston team in the first round and possibly another Boston team in the second round? I would predict Cornell is about 15% to win this regional.

Quote from: adamwFWIW - I personally believe swapping the opponents of the 2-3 seeds (Notre Dame/Cornell) is "more just" than swapping 3-4 -- solely because the difference between BU/Princeton is much greater than the difference between Princeton/Tech.  But that is solely an opinion, since their respective final Pairwise ranks are 15-18-21.  I actually asked the Committee Chair this directly, and I basically got a lot of mumbo jumbo back that led me to believe he didn't really understand the nuance of my question. So I'm guessing they "protected" Notre Dame, and then just swapped OSU/Cornell because they had to. And didn't put much further thought into it.

I will also say this - because I had this discussion with certain Cornell people who were annoyed at having to play "at" BU .... The idea that BU is going to pack throngs of people into Worcester is somewhat silly these days. It won't happen. It doesn't happen. There should be plenty of Cornell fans there. If there aren't - shame on Cornell fans.  This isn't 1972. OR even 1992.  BU is not packing tons of people into there.  The only concern I would have is that BU is hot, and they certainly have the inner talent.  So, bad matchup from that standpoint.  But the crowd and the "getting screwed" factor, I wouldn't worry about.

Quote from: DafatoneIf I ruled the world, I'd ditch the host team concept entirely, and then I'd let teams play conference opponents in the first round.

Quote from: adamw

Quote from: BearLoverHas Cornell ever gotten a positive outcome from a subjective selection committee decision? They get the 3rd overall seed and get sent to a Massachusetts regional against a Boston team in the first round and possibly another Boston team in the second round? I would predict Cornell is about 15% to win this regional.

Well, their then-AD, who was then-Committee Chair, Laing Kennedy - did somehow get Cornell in the tournament in 1991 when it probably had blown its chance.  So there's that.  Thus was born the Pairwise.

Quote from: TrotskyComparing the 1st band teams and projecting chalk except for them advancing:

Code Select Expand

By straight PWR:

1 St. Cloud   27  6  4  2   39
2 Notre Dame  21  7  3  1   32
3 Cornell     15  8  2  1   26
4 Ohio State  18  5  1  2   26

By offset from 1st band team seed:

1 St. Cloud   26  5  3  1   35
2 Notre Dame  19  5  1 -1   24
3 Cornell     12  5 -1 -2   14
4 Ohio State  14  1 -3 -2   10


Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverThe best matchup we could get per the pairwise was Michigan Tech. There's nothing in the pairwise that says the 2nd-best team getting the 14th-best team is any more unjust than the 3rd-best team getting the 13th-best team.

Sure there is. It's called finishing in 2nd, which is slightly higher than 3rd, and gets slightly better treatment. The only way you can justify giving us MTU instead of BU is that you think the #3 deserves better treatment than the #2. You're also forgetting that MTU just won their tournament, something we (badly) failed to do ourselves. You think if we were playing MTU, they'd be easier to beat because they'd only have a couple hundred fans in the building?

How many different ways are you guys gonna find to say exactly the same thing?

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverThe best matchup we could get per the pairwise was Michigan Tech. There's nothing in the pairwise that says the 2nd-best team getting the 14th-best team is any more unjust than the 3rd-best team getting the 13th-best team.

Sure there is. It's called finishing in 2nd, which is slightly higher than 3rd, and gets slightly better treatment. The only way you can justify giving us MTU instead of BU is that you think the #3 deserves better treatment than the #2.

Quote from: BeeeejYou're also forgetting that MTU just won their tournament, something we (badly) failed to do ourselves.

Quote from: BeeeejYou think if we were playing MTU, they'd be easier to beat because they'd only have a couple hundred fans in the building?

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverThe best matchup we could get per the pairwise was Michigan Tech. There's nothing in the pairwise that says the 2nd-best team getting the 14th-best team is any more unjust than the 3rd-best team getting the 13th-best team.

Sure there is. It's called finishing in 2nd, which is slightly higher than 3rd, and gets slightly better treatment. The only way you can justify giving us MTU instead of BU is that you think the #3 deserves better treatment than the #2.

No, that is wrong. What you're effectively saying is that the gap between 2 and 3 matters more than the gap between 3 and 4. ND finished higher than Cornell, who finished higher than Ohio State. Due to the no-intraconference-matchups rule, either #2 or #3 is getting a harder matchup, and either #3 or #4 is getting an easier matchup. Here, #4 benefited at the expense of #3, but #3 could just have easily benefited at the expense of #2, and the Pairwise says nothing about which outcome it prefers.

Quote from: BeeeejYou're also forgetting that MTU just won their tournament, something we (badly) failed to do ourselves.

We outshot and, overall, outplayed Princeton. It wasn't a horrible showing. We lost, but that's going to happen in an individual hockey game even when you're the better team. The entire point of the Pairwise is to not let the result of one game crowd out all the others in evaluating a team.

Quote from: BeeeejYou think if we were playing MTU, they'd be easier to beat because they'd only have a couple hundred fans in the building?

No...I think they'd be easier to beat because they're clearly and by all objective measures not as good as BU. You're also conflating the pairing issue with the home-ice-for-the four-seed issue. The former is less unjust but more impactful; the latter is more unjust but less impactful.

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLover

Quote from: Beeeej

Quote from: BearLoverThe best matchup we could get per the pairwise was Michigan Tech. There's nothing in the pairwise that says the 2nd-best team getting the 14th-best team is any more unjust than the 3rd-best team getting the 13th-best team.

Sure there is. It's called finishing in 2nd, which is slightly higher than 3rd, and gets slightly better treatment. The only way you can justify giving us MTU instead of BU is that you think the #3 deserves better treatment than the #2.

No, that is wrong. What you're effectively saying is that the gap between 2 and 3 matters more than the gap between 3 and 4. ND finished higher than Cornell, who finished higher than Ohio State. Due to the no-intraconference-matchups rule, either #2 or #3 is getting a harder matchup, and either #3 or #4 is getting an easier matchup. Here, #4 benefited at the expense of #3, but #3 could just have easily benefited at the expense of #2, and the Pairwise says nothing about which outcome it prefers.

Quote from: BeeeejYou're also forgetting that MTU just won their tournament, something we (badly) failed to do ourselves.

We outshot and, overall, outplayed Princeton. It wasn't a horrible showing. We lost, but that's going to happen in an individual hockey game even when you're the better team. The entire point of the Pairwise is to not let the result of one game crowd out all the others in evaluating a team.

Quote from: BeeeejYou think if we were playing MTU, they'd be easier to beat because they'd only have a couple hundred fans in the building?

No...I think they'd be easier to beat because they're clearly and by all objective measures not as good as BU. You're also conflating the pairing issue with the home-ice-for-the four-seed issue. The former is less unjust but more impactful; the latter is more unjust but less impactful.

What you're claiming I mean isn't at all what I've actually said, and that leads me to believe you still genuinely don't understand how the committee does this. Yet we've already spent way more energy and time on this than it was worth, and I have no desire to waste more trying to clarify. I hope to see you in Worcester, and I hope to enjoy that interaction considerably more than I've enjoyed this one.

Quote from: BeeeejIt's called finishing in 2nd, which is slightly higher than 3rd, and gets slightly better treatment. The only way you can justify giving us MTU instead of BU is that you think the #3 deserves better treatment than the #2.

Quote from: BeeeejYet we've already spent way more energy and time on this than it was worth, and I have no desire to waste more trying to clarify. I hope to see you in Worcester, and I hope to enjoy that interaction considerably more than I've enjoyed this one.

Quote from: ugarte

Quote from: djk26I think we would find reason to complain if Cornell's regional were Brown, RIT and Alaska Anchorage.  And the games were played at Lynah Rink.  "That's not fair...the other regions get better preparation for the Frozen Four."

It's the NCAA tournament.  There are no easy games.  We lost in the semifinals of our conference tournament, we have a loss to RPI (#58 in the Pairwise) on our resume and we are a #1 seed, we did't get sent west, and our opponent is a team we have beaten this season.

I realize I am oversimplifying a lot, and BU is a LOT better than they were in November.  I really expect Cornell to lose (just based on previous NCAA tournaments), but I will still cheer them on.  I just never expect that we will get an "easy" regional (and really no team ever draws a cakewalk), especially when the committee has to work around the "no intraconference matchups in the first round" rule.

i said this to beeeej offline but i am disturbed less by our getting screwed than by bu getting the benefit of a home game, even though obviously i feel the pain more acutely because cornell gets the short end of the stick. if you aren't the "official" host - an already dubious way of earning a home game - it is bullshit that as a 4 seed you still get to play in your own backyard. if you squeak into the tournament, pack your bags.