The good news is we've clinched a #1 seed, even if we lose tomorrow.
But...I've done a whole bunch of permutations and the ECAC consolation tomorrow does have an impact on our seeding if we lose and our potential opponent if we win.
Some results (assuming Mercyhurst beats Quinnipiac, and Mankato beats UMD):
If CC wins and we win, the top 4 seeds are 1) CC, 2) CU, 3) UNH, and 4) Maine. In addition, if Dartmouth wins the consy and Michigan wins the CCHA, Providence edges St. Cloud in the PWR (i.e. we can get stuck with Providence at Providence).
If we lose and CC wins, we finish #3 if Dartmouth wins, and #2 if Brown wins. If Michigan also wins the CCHA, Ohio State wins the CCHA consy and Dartmouth wins (all three must happen), Providence is in.
If Minnesota wins and we win: we are #1 in the PWR and Providence is out. The other three #1 seeds are CC, Minnesota, and UNH, in some order. The CCHA results are irrelevant to our standing or Providence's presence.
If Minnesota wins and we lose: If Dartmouth wins, we finish 4th. If Brown wins, we finish third (actually we tie UNH in PWR and lose to them on RPI) tho we might sneak up to #2 with bonus points. Providence is still out
Bottom line, worse scenarios occur for us if Dartmouth wins tomorrow. Root for Brown.
JH
JH
In the scenario where we finish fourth (we lose, Minn beats CC, Dartmouth wins) we're still the number 2 Eastern team (after UNH) which should get us #1 in Providence or Worcester (since BU falls to a 2 seed), although not against a MAAC or CHA team in the first round.
Also, for the fans of the UHN women in Worcester last year, on the television broadcast there was a middle aged woman dancing in the stands with her "Let's Go Harvard" sign upside down.
What are you using for bonus weights? Most of the guesses I've seen are comparable (.004/.002/.001, .005/.003/.001, .003/.002/.001), so if the NCAA's on the same page as the rest of us, that'll be a better guess than all zeros.
I had been using all zeros, John, but using some bonus points simplifies things and works in our favor.
I tried 005, 003, 001 and 003, 002, 001 and found little difference between the two as it applies to our seeding.
We win: We pass CC and move to #1, whether CC wins or loses.
We lose and CC wins: We are #2
We lose and Minn wins: We are #1 if Ohio State wins the CCHA consy,
We are #3 if Ohio State loses the CCHA consy.
In many cases, there are ties on PWR comparisons, and we get our position by RPI, sometimes by as little as 0.0002 points!
Also, bonus points eliminate Providence. Plus, they can allow BU to stay a #1 seed, which I think will go over like a real turd in the punchbowl.
JH
Does anyone know if the NCAA will release the final ranking order? I am guessing they won't release the final numbers, as then the bonus numbers could be inferred by guys like Whelan, who are good at that kind of thing. But what about the order? Will we even know if we actually did wind up higher than CC, if say, we both win.
Andy W. '86
Update - The WCHA consy matters a little. I kept 3/2/1 bonus points and had UMD win instead of MSU.
If CC wins, there is no change from my previous post.
If Minn wins and we win, there is no change.
If Minn wins and we lose, a Brown win in the ECAC consy makes us #1 by 0.0003 points over CC, a Dartmouth win in the ECAC consy makes us #3.
Furthermore, if the bonus points are 5/3/1, the ECAC consy does not matter if Minn wins and we lose - we finish #1
JH
In answer to Andy's question, we should be able to figure out the final rankings of the top four, even if they are not officially announced. That's because the committee has stated that they will bracket the tournament such that if all four #1's advance, the semis would have 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3.
Just one last result. Quinnipiac is better than Mercyhurst for us.
If we lose and Minn wins, with Quinnipiac winning, the ECAC consy can shift us from #3 (Dartmouth win) to #1 (Brown win).
I'll quit now. My head hurts.
JH