There are only 3145728 possible outcomes left before the tournament selections. Fortunately, somebody ran them all, computed the pairwise and figured out who's in and out of the NCAA tournament for each outcome:
http://collegehockeyranked.com/2014/03/17/in-contention-teams-tournament-probabilities/
According to this analysis, Cornell has about a 50/50 chance to get in the tournament (based solely on outcomes that get them in the tournament - no account for the likelihood each team wins a given game). Beating Union goes a long way to get Cornell in the tournament without winning the ECAC championship.
This doesn't list the scenarios that gets Cornell to 14th in the pairwise after losing to Union, but apparently there are roughly 3145 such scenarios. The most likely outcome if losing to Union is finishing 17th in the pairwise and starting golf and slow-pitch softball season.
It would be cool if this analysis was combined with the KRACH to predict the results of each game.
FSM bless whoever did that analysis.
Agreed, the KRACH combination would have been outstanding as well. I guess we just say "well it's the post-season so throw those odds out the window." ;)
Quote from: TrotskyFSM bless whoever did that analysis.
Agreed, the KRACH combination would have been outstanding as well. I guess we just say "well it's the post-season so throw those odds out the window." ;)
Really hoping that 100% guarantee of a bid saps some of Union's interest in playing all-out. Beat the best at their best? FEH.
Cornell's odds of making the tournament with 0 wins is less than 1%. With 1 win it goes up to 84.7%.
Based on KRACH Ratings (216.6 and 437.6), Cornell has a roughly 1-in-3 chance of beating Union. Factoring those together, our odds of making the tournament are closer to 30%.
Bottom line remains that we lost our cushion on Saturday night. Win Friday or go start the bus.
Quote from: KenPCornell's odds of making the tournament with 0 wins is less than 1%. With 1 win it goes up to 84.7%.
Based on KRACH Ratings (216.6 and 437.6), Cornell has a roughly 1-in-3 chance of beating Union. Factoring those together, our odds of making the tournament are closer to 30%.
Bottom line remains that we lost our cushion on Saturday night. Win Friday or go start the bus.
Well if they're supposed to win about 2 out of 3 and they already have the 2...
Quote from: Chris '03Quote from: KenPCornell's odds of making the tournament with 0 wins is less than 1%. With 1 win it goes up to 84.7%.
Based on KRACH Ratings (216.6 and 437.6), Cornell has a roughly 1-in-3 chance of beating Union. Factoring those together, our odds of making the tournament are closer to 30%.
Bottom line remains that we lost our cushion on Saturday night. Win Friday or go start the bus.
Well if they're supposed to win about 2 out of 3 and they already have the 2...
"Gamblers' Fallacy, you are cleared for takeoff..."
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: Chris '03Quote from: KenPCornell's odds of making the tournament with 0 wins is less than 1%. With 1 win it goes up to 84.7%.
Based on KRACH Ratings (216.6 and 437.6), Cornell has a roughly 1-in-3 chance of beating Union. Factoring those together, our odds of making the tournament are closer to 30%.
Bottom line remains that we lost our cushion on Saturday night. Win Friday or go start the bus.
Well if they're supposed to win about 2 out of 3 and they already have the 2...
"Gamblers' Fallacy, you are cleared for takeoff..."
If Cornell beats Union their KRACH rises which clearly means they increase their chance of winning the ECAC Championship game. Similarly, a loss on Friday decreases their chance of winning on Saturday... ::blush::
Quote from: KenPCornell's odds of making the tournament with 0 wins is less than 1%. With 1 win it goes up to 84.7%.
Based on KRACH Ratings (216.6 and 437.6), Cornell has a roughly 1-in-3 chance of beating Union. Factoring those together, our odds of making the tournament are closer to 30%.
Bottom line remains that we lost our cushion on Saturday night. Win Friday or go start the bus.
i wonder what the real odds are. us beating union is a 30% shot so that will happen a decent number of times. of the 3145728 there are a good number created on things that will happen like 10% of the time i would think.. if you removed those and we win our chances have to be somewhat better, more like 90%..
To quote Han Solo -- "Never tell me the odds!"