ELynah Forum

General Category => Hockey => Topic started by: Chris '03 on March 14, 2014, 09:35:28 AM

Title: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Chris '03 on March 14, 2014, 09:35:28 AM
Conference Tournaments:

Thursday:
Big Ten:
MSU v. OSU
PSU v. Michigan

Friday:
Big Ten:
TBD v. Wisconsin
TBD v. Minnesota

AHA:
Niagara v. RMU
Canisius v. Mercyhurst

HEA:
UNH v. PC
ND v. UML

WCHA:
UAA v. FSU
BGSU v. MSU-M
FSU winning this tournament is important. UAA and Bowling Green would vulture bids. Cornell and Mankato are in the group fighting for at large. A BG win on Friday goes a long way to ending Mankato's season but also buts BG closer to stealing a bid.

NCHC:
Miami v. ND
DU v. WMU




With Cornell's NCAA chances still hanging in the balance, there's a lot of non-conference scoreboard watching to be done over the next two weeks. Cornell's rooting interests are for a) whatever helps PWR b) whatever eliminates bubble teams and c) whatever minimizes outlier auto-bids eating up the 13-15 seeds. Teams who it seems Cornell should root for this weekend are in bold.  Any others?

Conference Quarters (all best of three)

AHA  
Canisius @ Bentley (CAN 2-1)
RMU @ UConn (RMU 2-0)
Niagara @ AFA (NIA 2-1)
Holy Cross @ Mercyhurst (MC 2-0)

HEA  
Northeastern @ UNH (NE 2-0)
Maine @ Providence (PC 2-0)
Notre Dame @ BC (ND 2-1)
UVM @ UML (UML 2-1)

WCHA
MTU @ BGU
Bemidji @ Ferris (FSU 2-1)
Northern Michigan @ MSU-Mankato (MSU-M 2-0)
UAA @ UAF (UAF 1-0)

NCHC
Western Michigan @ Duluth (WMU 2-0)
Denver @ UNO (Denver 2-1)
Miami @ SCSU (Miami 2-0)
CC @ North Dakota (ND 2-1)


Big Ten Regular season (two games each):
Minnesota @ Michigan (1-1)
OSU @ PSU (1-1)
Wisconsin @ MSU (1-1)
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: nyc94 on March 14, 2014, 10:38:15 AM
I think if Cornell sweeps and BC sweeps Notre Dame we can move ahead of Notre Dame.  Same if Maine were to sweep Providence - it does significant damage to Providence's chances and while it improves Maine's they shouldn't be a threat to us.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 14, 2014, 11:18:50 AM
FWIW, UNO beating Denver last night moved our RPI from 0.5412 to 0.5415.  Sounds to me, the bigger impact is what we do and what the teams near us do.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 14, 2014, 11:25:50 AM
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82FWIW, UNO beating Denver last night moved our RPI from 0.5412 to 0.5415.  Sounds to me, the bigger impact is what we do and what the teams near us do.

Here are the teams +/- .01 RPICH:

.5482 Notre Dame at BC: WON
.5468 North Dakota vs CC: WON
.5462 Providence vs Maine: WON
.5418 Vermont at Lowell: LOST
.5415 Cornell vs Clarkson: WON
.5406 Michigan vs Minnesota: LOST
.5393 Northeastern at UNH: LOST
.5356 Colgate vs St. Lawrence: WON
.5364 Mankato vs Northern Michigan: WON
.5344 Yale at Quinnipiac: LOST
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 14, 2014, 10:53:29 PM
Not a game of PWR interest, but tonight the Bemidji goaltender had 15 saves and gave up 8 goals.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Beeeej on March 14, 2014, 11:08:44 PM
Quote from: TrotskyNot a game of PWR interest, but tonight the Bemidji goaltender had 15 saves and gave up 8 goals.

Speaking of which, with most results now in the books, we're up to #12 in the PWR.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 15, 2014, 05:28:57 AM
Quote from: Beeeej
Quote from: TrotskyNot a game of PWR interest, but tonight the Bemidji goaltender had 15 saves and gave up 8 goals.

Speaking of which, with most results now in the books, we're up to #12 in the PWR.

Still pretty volatile tho.  At one point in the evening Colgate was at 12 and we were 13.  Once the St. Cloud loss came in, they dropped back to 15 and we moved up.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Al DeFlorio on March 15, 2014, 07:51:25 AM
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82
Quote from: Beeeej
Quote from: TrotskyNot a game of PWR interest, but tonight the Bemidji goaltender had 15 saves and gave up 8 goals.

Speaking of which, with most results now in the books, we're up to #12 in the PWR.

Still pretty volatile tho.  At one point in the evening Colgate was at 12 and we were 13.  Once the St. Cloud loss came in, they dropped back to 15 and we moved up.
With all the complexity and adjustments for this, that and the other thing, the fact is the PWR tracks the much reviled RPI almost perfectly, with only two irrelevant flip-flops pretty far down in the rankings.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: ChipJ on March 15, 2014, 01:59:37 PM
I was blown away that the Irish beat BC 7-2 at BC last night.
BC is not going to sweep that series!
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 15, 2014, 07:03:02 PM
Saturday night's +/- .01 RPICH:

09 .5519 Notre Dame at BC: LOST
10 .5486 Providence vs Maine: WON
11 .5465 North Dakota vs CC: LOST
12 .5431 Cornell vs Clarkson: LOST
13 .5387 Mankato vs Northern Michigan: WON
14 .5380 Vermont at Lowell: WON
15 .5372 Colgate vs St. Lawrence: WON
16 .5368 Michigan vs Minnesota: WON
17 .5357 Northeastern at UNH: WON
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Beeeej on March 15, 2014, 09:25:36 PM
As of the end of game two, we're #16 in the Pairwise. We pretty much have to win out now.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: scoop85 on March 15, 2014, 09:27:52 PM
Quote from: BeeeejAs of the end of game two, we're #16 in the Pairwise. We pretty much have to win out now.

I was afraid today's loss would give us a big hit, and I was right. No margin for error now.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 15, 2014, 09:39:23 PM
Quote from: BeeeejAs of the end of game two, we're #16 in the Pairwise. We pretty much have to win out now.

A win tomorrow and a win against #3 Union might gain us back enough breathing room to make it,  but let's be on the safe side and just win the whole fucking thing.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: jkahn on March 15, 2014, 10:31:10 PM
With St. Cloud getting eliminated in the NCHC playoffs tonight, it's now also more likely someone below us might grab a spot by winning the NCHC playoffs.  That's not good news for us (or Colgate).
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 15, 2014, 11:28:28 PM
The late results hurt us (now 17) but completely fucked Colgate (now 16 despite their sweep).
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: dwakelin on March 16, 2014, 09:14:43 AM
It seems if Cornell wins tonight against Clarkson and should both Colgate and Cornell lose their semifinal games at Lake Placid
both team could very easily be eliminated. The decision not to play a consolation game could really bite the league right in the ass not
allowing one of the teams a win to secure an NCAA spot.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: KGR11 on March 16, 2014, 10:17:55 AM
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: BeeeejAs of the end of game two, we're #16 in the Pairwise. We pretty much have to win out now.

A win tomorrow and a win against #3 Union might gain us back enough breathing room to make it,  but let's be on the safe side and just win the whole fucking thing.

We might not need to beat Union.  This link (http://playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html) shows our probability to make it to the ECAC semifinals, while This link  (http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournseedprob.html) show our probability of making different NCAA seeds.  Our probability of losing tonight is 38% and our probability of missing the NCAA tournament is 40%.  Since it's incredibly unlikely that we make the NCAA tournament AND lose tonight, doesn't that mean that our likelihood of NOT making the NCAA tournament if we lose to Union in the semis is around 2% or 3%?

This low percentage goes against my gut, but I'm not sure if it's my logic that's off or the probabilities provided by the website.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: upprdeck on March 16, 2014, 11:51:02 AM
win tonight, but there will be many teams around us lose next week just like we likely will.  who knows.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: nyc94 on March 16, 2014, 06:29:47 PM
Hockey East games had early starts today.
Notre Dame 4 BC 2 F
Lowell 2 Vermont 1 F
UNH 5 Northeastern 4 F
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Icy on March 16, 2014, 06:55:20 PM
BC loses, UNH wins
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Beeeej on March 16, 2014, 06:56:59 PM
Quote from: IcyBC loses, UNH wins

...which drops us back to #17.

Anybody else getting dizzy?
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 16, 2014, 10:52:57 PM
The win puts us back at 16.

The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a vulture, so the line is currently at 15.

The other conference survivors are:

Big N: (11) Michigan; Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC: (3) Union, (6) Quinnipiac, (15) Colgate, (16) Cornell
HE: (7) Lowell, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Providence; UNH
WCHA: (4) Ferris, (12) Mankato; Bowling Green, UAA
NCHC: (13) North Dakota; Miami, WMU, Denver

So there could be up to four additional vultures, dropping the line to 11.  Two seem likely.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jim Hyla on March 16, 2014, 11:34:33 PM
Quote from: TrotskyThe win puts us back at 16.

The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a vulture, so the line is currently at 15.

The other conference survivors are:

Big N: (11) Michigan; Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC: (3) Union, (6) Quinnipiac, (15) Colgate, (16) Cornell
HE: (7) Lowell, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Providence; UNH
WCHA: (4) Ferris, (12) Mankato; Bowling Green, UAA
NCHC: (13) North Dakota; Miami, WMU, Denver

So there could be up to four additional vultures, dropping the line to 11.  Two seem likely.

Umm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Rita on March 17, 2014, 12:12:22 AM
Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: TrotskyThe win puts us back at 16.

The Atlantic Hockey winner will be a vulture, so the line is currently at 15.

The other conference survivors are:

Big N: (11) Michigan; Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State
ECAC: (3) Union, (6) Quinnipiac, (15) Colgate, (16) Cornell
HE: (7) Lowell, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Providence; UNH
WCHA: (4) Ferris, (12) Mankato; Bowling Green, UAA
NCHC: (13) North Dakota; Miami, WMU, Denver

So there could be up to four additional vultures, dropping the line to 11.  Two seem likely.

Umm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

Yeah, 6 team "Big 6/10/12/14" conference and everyone gets to play in their conference tourney (very ACC-Lax-like, eh?). Minnesota and Wisconsin get a bye. The teams Trotsky listed play Thursday night with the winners getting the gophers and badgers.

Yeah, I know that the ECAC and almost every other conference lets everyone in, but considering they are only 6 teams and already have played each other 4 times, it seems a bit redundant.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: mikek on March 17, 2014, 12:18:00 AM
Cornell can make it with a loss to Union. Need NoDak and Ferris to win their tournaments. Colgate needs to lose. New Hampshire can't win hockey east. Need Minnesota St to lose. Bit of a long shot... Even a win against Union doesn't guarantee a bid if there upsets in other leagues.

Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk   W-L-T Win %  
1 Minnesota 58 .6021 1   27-5-6 .7895  
2 Boston College 57 .5892* 2   26-7-4 .7568  
3 Union 55 .5863* 3   28-6-4 .7895  
4 Ferris State 55 .5680* 4   29-9-3 .7439  
5 Wisconsin 54 .5608* 5   23-11-2 .6667  
6 Quinnipiac 53 .5593 7   25-9-6 .7000  
7 Mass.-Lowell 52 .5608* 6   25-10-4 .6923  
8 Notre Dame 51 .5542* 8   23-14-2 .6154  
9 St. Cloud State 50 .5485* 9   21-10-5 .6528  
10 Providence 48 .5451* 10   21-10-6 .6486  
11 North Dakota 48 .5445 11   24-12-3 .6538  
12 Michigan 46 .5406 12   19-13-4 .5833  
13 Vermont 46 .5400 13   20-14-3 .5811  
14 Northeastern 44 .5359 14   19-14-4 .5676  
15 Cornell 44 .5356 15   17-10-5 .6094  
16 Colgate 43 .5352 16   19-13-5 .5811  
17 New Hampshire 42 .5303 18   22-18-1 .5488  
18 Minnesota State 41 .5347 17   24-14-1 .6282  
19 Yale 40 .5268 19   17-11-5 .5909  
20 Western Michigan 40 .5257 20   20-15-5 .5625  
21 Ohio State 38 .5218 21   17-14-5 .5417  
22 Minnesota-Duluth 38 .5197 22   16-16-4 .5000  
23 Maine 35 .5185 23   16-15-4 .5143  
24 Bowling Green 35 .5172 24   19-15-6 .5500  
25 Clarkson 33 .5141 26   21-17-4 .5476  
26 Alaska-Anchorage 33 .5122 27   18-16-4 .5263  
27 Alaska-Fairbanks 32 .5068 29   18-15-4 .5405  
28 Denver 31 .5161 25   19-16-6 .5366  
29 Mercyhurst 30 .5079 28   23-12-7 .6310  
30 Rensselaer 29 .5048 30   15-16-6 .4865  
31 Nebraska-Omaha 29 .5045 31   17-18-2 .4865  
32 St. Lawrence 28 .5003 32   15-19-4 .4474  
33 Lake Superior 27 .4994 33   16-19-1 .4583  
34 Michigan Tech 25 .4935 34   14-19-7 .4375  
35 Miami 24 .4934 35   14-21-3 .4079  
36 Air Force 24 .4922 36   21-14-4 .5897  
37 Michigan State 22 .4878 37   11-18-7 .4028  
38 Brown 21 .4872 38   11-17-3 .4032  
39 Northern Michigan 19 .4832 40   15-21-2 .4211  
40 Harvard 19 .4810 41   10-17-4 .3871  
41 Bentley 17 .4858 39   19-14-4 .5676  
42 Dartmouth 17 .4784 42   10-20-4 .3529  
43 Connecticut 16 .4776 43   18-14-4 .5556  
44 Boston University 15 .4728 44   10-21-4 .3429  
45 Bemidji State 14 .4704 45   10-21-7 .3553  
46 Massachusetts 13 .4696 46   8-22-4 .2941  
47 Robert Morris 12 .4664 47   18-18-5 .5000  
48 Merrimack 12 .4601 48   8-22-3 .2879  
49 Canisius 10 .4601 49   16-21-3 .4375  
50 Niagara 9 .4588 50   15-20-5 .4375  
51 Colorado College 8 .4537 51   7-24-6 .2703  
52 Penn State 7 .4484 52   7-26-2 .2286  
53 Holy Cross 6 .4465 53   14-22-3 .3974  
54 RIT 5 .4449 54   12-20-5 .3919  
55 Princeton 4 .4320 55   6-26-0 .1875  
56 Sacred Heart 4 .4282 56   12-24-0 .3333  
57 American Int'l 2 .4176 57   10-25-1 .2917  
58 Alabama-Huntsville 1 .3955 58   2-35-1 .0658  
59 Army 0 .3887 59   6-28-0 .1765  


User-Specified Results
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Mercyhurst def. Canisius
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Robert Morris def. Niagara
•Atlantic Hockey Championship: Mercyhurst def. Robert Morris
•Big Ten Semifinal #1: Minnesota def. Ohio State
•Big Ten Semifinal #2: Wisconsin def. Michigan
•Big Ten Championship: Minnesota def. Wisconsin
•Big Ten Play-in #1: Michigan def. Penn State
•Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
•ECAC Semifinal #1: Union def. Cornell
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
•ECAC Championship: Union def. Quinnipiac
•Hockey East Semifinal #1: Mass.-Lowell def. Notre Dame
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire def. Providence
•Hockey East Championship: Mass.-Lowell def. New Hampshire
•NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Miami
•NCHC Semifinal #2: Western Michigan def. Denver
•NCHC Championship: North Dakota def. Western Michigan
•NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Miami
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Ferris State def. Alaska-Anchorage
•WCHA Semifinal #2: Bowling Green def. Minnesota State
•WCHA Championship: Ferris State def. Bowling Green
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 17, 2014, 06:10:26 AM
Bigger long shot:  If Penn Sate can upset Mighigan again, we can still get in if Minnesota State wins.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 17, 2014, 06:27:16 AM
Quote from: RitaUmm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

I did forget them.  They help a lot since they significantly lessen the chance of a Big N vulture.

Vulture likelihoods (source (http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockey.html)):

AH: 100%
NCHA: 70%
Big N: 8%
WCHA: 32%
HE: 10% (roughly, they haven't updated yet)
ECAC: 0%
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Chris '03 on March 17, 2014, 07:55:57 AM
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: RitaUmm, I think you forgot Minny and Wisc. Not that they're important.

I did forget them.  They help a lot since they significantly lessen the chance of a Big N vulture.

Vulture likelihoods (source (http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockey.html)):

AH: 100%
NCHA: 70%
Big N: 8%
WCHA: 32%
HE: 10% (roughly, they haven't updated yet)
ECAC: 0%

Big Ten tournament is for bragging rights, no? I didn't think they had an aq yet.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 17, 2014, 11:08:03 AM
Quote from: Chris '03Big Ten tournament is for bragging rights, no? I didn't think they had an aq yet.
Really?  I had no idea.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Chris '03 on March 17, 2014, 11:28:22 AM
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: Chris '03Big Ten tournament is for bragging rights, no? I didn't think they had an aq yet.
Really?  I had no idea.

Maybe not...

QuoteThe winner of the 2014 Big Ten Men's Ice Hockey Tournament will receive the conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Championship.
http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/big10-m-hockey-tournament-13-14.html

I must be getting my lax and hockey realignment auto-qualifiers mixed up or something.  

Nothing to see here... move along.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 17, 2014, 11:36:40 AM
Quote from: Chris '03I must be getting my lax and hockey realignment auto-qualifiers mixed up or something.
IIRC PSU is not able to qualify this year.  Maybe you're thinking of that?
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jim Hyla on March 18, 2014, 12:37:19 PM
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union. Need NoDak and Ferris to win their tournaments. Colgate needs to lose. New Hampshire can't win hockey east. Need Minnesota St to lose. Bit of a long shot... Even a win against Union doesn't guarantee a bid if there upsets in other leagues.

Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk   W-L-T Win %  
1 Minnesota 58 .6021 1   27-5-6 .7895  
2 Boston College 57 .5892* 2   26-7-4 .7568  
3 Union 55 .5863* 3   28-6-4 .7895  
4 Ferris State 55 .5680* 4   29-9-3 .7439  
5 Wisconsin 54 .5608* 5   23-11-2 .6667  
6 Quinnipiac 53 .5593 7   25-9-6 .7000  
7 Mass.-Lowell 52 .5608* 6   25-10-4 .6923  
8 Notre Dame 51 .5542* 8   23-14-2 .6154  
9 St. Cloud State 50 .5485* 9   21-10-5 .6528  
10 Providence 48 .5451* 10   21-10-6 .6486  
11 North Dakota 48 .5445 11   24-12-3 .6538  
12 Michigan 46 .5406 12   19-13-4 .5833  
13 Vermont 46 .5400 13   20-14-3 .5811  
14 Northeastern 44 .5359 14   19-14-4 .5676  
15 Cornell 44 .5356 15   17-10-5 .6094  
16 Colgate 43 .5352 16   19-13-5 .5811  
17 New Hampshire 42 .5303 18   22-18-1 .5488  
18 Minnesota State 41 .5347 17   24-14-1 .6282  
19 Yale 40 .5268 19   17-11-5 .5909  
20 Western Michigan 40 .5257 20   20-15-5 .5625  
21 Ohio State 38 .5218 21   17-14-5 .5417  
22 Minnesota-Duluth 38 .5197 22   16-16-4 .5000  
23 Maine 35 .5185 23   16-15-4 .5143  
24 Bowling Green 35 .5172 24   19-15-6 .5500  
25 Clarkson 33 .5141 26   21-17-4 .5476  
26 Alaska-Anchorage 33 .5122 27   18-16-4 .5263  
27 Alaska-Fairbanks 32 .5068 29   18-15-4 .5405  
28 Denver 31 .5161 25   19-16-6 .5366  
29 Mercyhurst 30 .5079 28   23-12-7 .6310  
30 Rensselaer 29 .5048 30   15-16-6 .4865  
31 Nebraska-Omaha 29 .5045 31   17-18-2 .4865  
32 St. Lawrence 28 .5003 32   15-19-4 .4474  
33 Lake Superior 27 .4994 33   16-19-1 .4583  
34 Michigan Tech 25 .4935 34   14-19-7 .4375  
35 Miami 24 .4934 35   14-21-3 .4079  
36 Air Force 24 .4922 36   21-14-4 .5897  
37 Michigan State 22 .4878 37   11-18-7 .4028  
38 Brown 21 .4872 38   11-17-3 .4032  
39 Northern Michigan 19 .4832 40   15-21-2 .4211  
40 Harvard 19 .4810 41   10-17-4 .3871  
41 Bentley 17 .4858 39   19-14-4 .5676  
42 Dartmouth 17 .4784 42   10-20-4 .3529  
43 Connecticut 16 .4776 43   18-14-4 .5556  
44 Boston University 15 .4728 44   10-21-4 .3429  
45 Bemidji State 14 .4704 45   10-21-7 .3553  
46 Massachusetts 13 .4696 46   8-22-4 .2941  
47 Robert Morris 12 .4664 47   18-18-5 .5000  
48 Merrimack 12 .4601 48   8-22-3 .2879  
49 Canisius 10 .4601 49   16-21-3 .4375  
50 Niagara 9 .4588 50   15-20-5 .4375  
51 Colorado College 8 .4537 51   7-24-6 .2703  
52 Penn State 7 .4484 52   7-26-2 .2286  
53 Holy Cross 6 .4465 53   14-22-3 .3974  
54 RIT 5 .4449 54   12-20-5 .3919  
55 Princeton 4 .4320 55   6-26-0 .1875  
56 Sacred Heart 4 .4282 56   12-24-0 .3333  
57 American Int'l 2 .4176 57   10-25-1 .2917  
58 Alabama-Huntsville 1 .3955 58   2-35-1 .0658  
59 Army 0 .3887 59   6-28-0 .1765  


User-Specified Results
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: Mercyhurst def. Canisius
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Robert Morris def. Niagara
•Atlantic Hockey Championship: Mercyhurst def. Robert Morris
•Big Ten Semifinal #1: Minnesota def. Ohio State
•Big Ten Semifinal #2: Wisconsin def. Michigan
•Big Ten Championship: Minnesota def. Wisconsin
•Big Ten Play-in #1: Michigan def. Penn State
•Big Ten Play-in #2: Ohio State def. Michigan State
•ECAC Semifinal #1: Union def. Cornell
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
•ECAC Championship: Union def. Quinnipiac
•Hockey East Semifinal #1: Mass.-Lowell def. Notre Dame
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire def. Providence
•Hockey East Championship: Mass.-Lowell def. New Hampshire
•NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Miami
•NCHC Semifinal #2: Western Michigan def. Denver
•NCHC Championship: North Dakota def. Western Michigan
•NCHC Consolation: Denver def. Miami
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Ferris State def. Alaska-Anchorage
•WCHA Semifinal #2: Bowling Green def. Minnesota State
•WCHA Championship: Ferris State def. Bowling Green

I just ran this again and we're 17. Did I do something wrong, or has it changed?
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 18, 2014, 12:41:01 PM
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union.
The probabilities analysis on the other thread shows that we make it with a loss to Union in just 0.2% of all permutations.

We may want to think about winning...
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: ugarte on March 18, 2014, 12:42:47 PM
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union.
The probabilities analysis on the other thread shows that we make it with a loss to Union in just 0.2% of all permutations.

We may want to think about winning...
The agenda is set but if you bring it up at the meeting I'll give you some time to make your case.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: andyw2100 on March 18, 2014, 02:05:35 PM
Quote from: ugarte
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union.
The probabilities analysis on the other thread shows that we make it with a loss to Union in just 0.2% of all permutations.

We may want to think about winning...
The agenda is set but if you bring it up at the meeting I'll give you some time to make your case.

I haven't crunched the numbers, but unless I am mistaken, winning would also have the added benefit of significantly increasing our chances of winning the ECAC championship.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: KeithK on March 18, 2014, 03:59:02 PM
Quote from: andyw2100
Quote from: ugarte
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union.
The probabilities analysis on the other thread shows that we make it with a loss to Union in just 0.2% of all permutations.

We may want to think about winning...
The agenda is set but if you bring it up at the meeting I'll give you some time to make your case.

I haven't crunched the numbers, but unless I am mistaken, winning would also have the added benefit of significantly increasing our chances of winning the ECAC championship.
You mean they cancelled cancelled the loser's bracket too?  Geez.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: mikek on March 18, 2014, 07:20:36 PM
Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union. Need NoDak and Ferris to win their tournaments. Colgate needs to lose. New Hampshire can't win hockey east. Need Minnesota St to lose. Bit of a long shot... Even a win against Union doesn't guarantee a bid if there upsets in other leagues.

I just ran this again and we're 17. Did I do something wrong, or has it changed?

Looks like it changed...  I can't duplicate the result, nor can I find one where Cornell gets in with a loss.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jim Hyla on March 18, 2014, 07:34:29 PM
Quote from: mikek
Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: mikekCornell can make it with a loss to Union. Need NoDak and Ferris to win their tournaments. Colgate needs to lose. New Hampshire can't win hockey east. Need Minnesota St to lose. Bit of a long shot... Even a win against Union doesn't guarantee a bid if there upsets in other leagues.

I just ran this again and we're 17. Did I do something wrong, or has it changed?

Looks like it changed...  I can duplicate the result, nor can I find one where Cornell gets in with a loss.

That's what I thought, although I did it before and got us in. It was after all games of the weekend, so I don't understand what changed.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Rita on March 20, 2014, 12:56:12 PM
Does anyone know if there is a free audio link for this afternoon's Big 6/10/12/14 play-in game between Michigan and Penn State? It is a 3 pm face-off.

I found this link on the Michigan site (http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-hockey/spec-rel/ihm-berenson-2013-14.html), so it will be trial and error to see if any of them stream for free on the internet.

Go Nittany Lions!
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Michigan v. Penn State
Post by: Rita on March 20, 2014, 03:24:57 PM
free audio:

http://www.mgoblue.com/allaccess/

midway through the first, 0-0.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Michigan v. Penn State
Post by: Beeeej on March 20, 2014, 03:31:59 PM
Quote from: Ritafree audio:

http://www.mgoblue.com/allaccess/

midway through the first, 0-0.

Also airing live right now on the Big Ten Network for TeeVee fans. Penn State comes up empty on a power play, still 0-0.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 20, 2014, 03:56:56 PM
WE ARE...
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: RichH on March 20, 2014, 04:22:28 PM
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82WE ARE...

So dumb you have to keep repeating your own identity wherever you go?
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Rita on March 20, 2014, 04:41:19 PM
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82WE ARE...

good at holding a 1 goal lead in the 3rd period?

yup, PSU up 1-0 after two.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Trotsky on March 20, 2014, 04:43:06 PM
So, we are rooting for... (all guessing)

Thurs

Big Ten

MSU > OSU
PSU > Mich

Friday

AH

We don't care

ECAC

Cor > Uni
Qpc > Col

HE

Prv > UNH  (?)
ND > Lowell

NCHC

Mia > NoDak
Den > WMU

WCHA

FSU > UAA
BGSU > Mank
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 20, 2014, 05:01:04 PM
Nope, we don't want anybody but NoDak to win the NCHC.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 20, 2014, 05:03:02 PM
Quote from: Rita
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82WE ARE...

good at holding a 1 goal lead in the 3rd period?

yup, PSU up 1-0 after two.

Nope. Now tied at 1.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Michigan v. Penn State
Post by: Rita on March 20, 2014, 06:06:46 PM
after 1 OT, still tied at 1. The Michigan announcers are really happy that the tie will be resolved by "real hockey" and not the shoot-out that they use in the regular season. Go Lions!
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Michigan v. Penn State
Post by: Rita on March 20, 2014, 06:43:03 PM
According live box and twitter feeds, Penn State wins 2-1!.

The free michigan audio cut out after the first OT. Bummer about that, but the end result was sweet.

We are now #15 PWR, Michigan drops to #16
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Michigan v. Penn State
Post by: trainbow on March 20, 2014, 07:20:16 PM
Using CHN, when I put the Penn State result in, CU is 15 and Michigan is 18.
In any case, losing three times to Penn State this year is not going to do Michigan any favors with the committee.

Lastly, for my wife's alma mater I say  LGR!
For my alma mater I say  We Are ... !
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: trainbow on March 20, 2014, 07:47:32 PM
Quote from: RichH
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82WE ARE...

So dumb you have to keep repeating your own identity wherever you go?

Here's the background story behind Penn State's chant:

"In 1948, [Wallace] Triplett became the first African-American to play in the Cotton Bowl Classic, catching the tying touchdown in Penn State's 13-13 tie with Southern Methodist University. It has been suggested Penn State's now-famous 'We Are Penn State!' stadium cheer has its origins in SMU's request for a meeting to protest the participation of Penn State's two black players (Triplett and Hoggard). Team captain Steve Suhey was said to have responded, 'We are Penn State. There will be no meetings.'"
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wallace_Triplett]

As further context, I should note that through the 1940's, when northern colleges played in the south, black players on the northern teams were not allowed to participate.  Penn State refused to comply.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Michigan v. Penn State
Post by: Jeff Hopkins '82 on March 20, 2014, 09:11:19 PM
Quote from: trainbowUsing CHN, when I put the Penn State result in, CU is 15 and Michigan is 18.
In any case, losing three times to Penn State this year is not going to do Michigan any favors with the committee.

Lastly, for my wife's alma mater I say  LGR!
For my alma mater I say  We Are ... !

PENN STATE!!!

It's my dad's Alma Mater, too.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: mikek on March 21, 2014, 09:35:37 PM
Still possible to make it... though I think Cornell needs these exact results.

http://goo.gl/o5dWI9 (http://goo.gl/o5dWI9)

Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk   W-L-T Win %  
1 Minnesota 58 .5930 1   25-6-6 .7568  
2 Boston College 57 .5881* 2   26-7-4 .7568  
3 Union 55 .5877* 3   28-6-4 .7895  
4 Wisconsin 55 .5661* 4   24-10-2 .6944  
5 Mass.-Lowell 53 .5617* 5   25-10-4 .6923  
6 Quinnipiac 53 .5581 7   25-9-6 .7000  
7 Ferris State 52 .5610* 6   28-10-3 .7195  
8 Notre Dame 51 .5518* 8   23-14-2 .6154  
9 St. Cloud State 50 .5495* 9   21-10-5 .6528  
10 Minnesota State 49 .5476* 10   26-13-1 .6625  
11 Providence 47 .5472* 11   21-10-6 .6486  
12 North Dakota 47 .5449 12   24-12-3 .6538  
13 Vermont 46 .5398 13   20-14-3 .5811  
14 Michigan 44 .5367 14   18-13-4 .5714  
15 Cornell 44 .5351 15   17-10-5 .6094  
--------------------------------------------
16 Northeastern 42 .5351 16   19-14-4 .5676  
17 Colgate 42 .5348 17   19-13-5 .5811  
18 New Hampshire 42 .5282 18   22-18-1 .5488  
19 Yale 40 .5266 19   17-11-5 .5909  
20 Ohio State 39 .5265 20   18-14-5 .5541  


User-Specified Results
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara def. Robert Morris
•Atlantic Hockey Championship: Niagara def. Canisius
•Big Ten Semifinal #1: Ohio State def. Minnesota
•Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin def. Ohio State
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
•ECAC Championship: Union def. Quinnipiac
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire def. Providence
•Hockey East Championship: Mass.-Lowell def. New Hampshire
•NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Miami
•NCHC Championship: North Dakota def. Denver
•NCHC Consolation: Miami def. Western Michigan
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Ferris State def. Alaska-Anchorage
•WCHA Championship: Minnesota State def. Ferris State
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: gonyr on March 21, 2014, 10:07:50 PM
Quote from: mikekStill possible to make it... though I think Cornell needs these exact results.

http://goo.gl/o5dWI9 (http://goo.gl/o5dWI9)

Rk Team PCWs RPI Rk   W-L-T Win %  
1 Minnesota 58 .5930 1   25-6-6 .7568  
2 Boston College 57 .5881* 2   26-7-4 .7568  
3 Union 55 .5877* 3   28-6-4 .7895  
4 Wisconsin 55 .5661* 4   24-10-2 .6944  
5 Mass.-Lowell 53 .5617* 5   25-10-4 .6923  
6 Quinnipiac 53 .5581 7   25-9-6 .7000  
7 Ferris State 52 .5610* 6   28-10-3 .7195  
8 Notre Dame 51 .5518* 8   23-14-2 .6154  
9 St. Cloud State 50 .5495* 9   21-10-5 .6528  
10 Minnesota State 49 .5476* 10   26-13-1 .6625  
11 Providence 47 .5472* 11   21-10-6 .6486  
12 North Dakota 47 .5449 12   24-12-3 .6538  
13 Vermont 46 .5398 13   20-14-3 .5811  
14 Michigan 44 .5367 14   18-13-4 .5714  
15 Cornell 44 .5351 15   17-10-5 .6094  
--------------------------------------------
16 Northeastern 42 .5351 16   19-14-4 .5676  
17 Colgate 42 .5348 17   19-13-5 .5811  
18 New Hampshire 42 .5282 18   22-18-1 .5488  
19 Yale 40 .5266 19   17-11-5 .5909  
20 Ohio State 39 .5265 20   18-14-5 .5541  


User-Specified Results
•Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Niagara def. Robert Morris
•Atlantic Hockey Championship: Niagara def. Canisius
•Big Ten Semifinal #1: Ohio State def. Minnesota
•Big Ten Championship: Wisconsin def. Ohio State
•ECAC Semifinal #2: Quinnipiac def. Colgate
•ECAC Championship: Union def. Quinnipiac
•Hockey East Semifinal #2: New Hampshire def. Providence
•Hockey East Championship: Mass.-Lowell def. New Hampshire
•NCHC Semifinal #1: North Dakota def. Miami
•NCHC Championship: North Dakota def. Denver
•NCHC Consolation: Miami def. Western Michigan
•WCHA Semifinal #1: Ferris State def. Alaska-Anchorage
•WCHA Championship: Minnesota State def. Ferris State

Union over Q drops Northeastern to 18, but puts us in at #15 also. Seems more than a little unlikely for everything to fall exactly into place at this point.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Beeeej on March 21, 2014, 10:31:29 PM
Looks like the window's already closed because of other results.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: Rita on March 21, 2014, 10:40:48 PM
Since Cornell is out, I'm all for the underdog/bid-stealers in other conference. Let's see what a "hot" team that ran the table in their conference tournament can do in the NC$$. UNH, tOSU and Miami seem to be contenders.

I would like to see Colgate get in so that the ECAC has three representatives. I would like to see Michigan and Vermont knocked out.
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: John81 on March 22, 2014, 10:24:55 AM
Would a win in the cancelled game vs. Mass have had us in the 15 spot pending today's outcomes?
Title: Re: Conference Playoffs: Non-conference rooting interests
Post by: ugarte on March 23, 2014, 11:11:02 AM
Quote from: John81Would a win in the cancelled game vs. Mass have had us in the 15 spot pending today's outcomes?
Don't want to know the answer. Please don't figure this out. Or if you do, only report if the answer is "it wouldn't have mattered."