It starts. Here's the first from USCHO's Jayson Moy. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/08/10-weeks-out-and-hockey-east-has-a-strong-presence-in-the-bracket/)
QuoteSince USCHO has begun the PairWise Rankings, we have correctly identified all of the teams that have been selected to the NCAA tournament.
I'm the only national prognosticator that has correctly predicted each of the last three brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have interpreted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/08/10-weeks-out-and-hockey-east-has-a-strong-presence-in-the-bracket/#ixzz2puj2DRVd
Here's the first outcome:
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul)
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
11 Clarkson vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
14 Vermont vs. 3 St. Cloud State
9 Michigan vs. 5 Union
East Regional (Bridgeport)
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Ferris State
10 Northeastern vs. 6 Quinnipiac
Northeast Regional (Worcester)
15 Wisconsin vs. 2 Boston College
12 Cornell vs. 7 Providence
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 6
ECAC Hockey — 4
Big Ten — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
NCHC — 1
WCHA — 1
Union is the eastern team that get's screwed this time.
Stop the season right now! I'll take this.
Quote from: BMacStop the season right now! I'll take this.
Was thinking the same thing. It also gives the chance of an all-ECAC Frozen Four, which would make the head of every USCHO poster west of Buffalo asplode.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: BMacStop the season right now! I'll take this.
Was thinking the same thing. It also gives the chance of an all-ECAC Frozen Four, which would make the head of every USCHO poster west of Buffalo asplode.
Probably everyone east of Hamden too.
Quote from: Jim HylaUnion is the eastern team that get's screwed this time.
If you've got to get screwed in a bracket it's best to do so in January...
Some differences in Pairwise between the USCHO site and CHN app. Possibly related to road wins/home losses adjustments to RPI?
The latest. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/15/nine-weeks-out-and-we-can-get-a-good-regional-bracket/)
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul)
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 5 St. Cloud State
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
15 Michigan vs. 3 Ferris State
10 Wisconsin vs. 6 Union
East Regional (Bridgeport)
13 New Hampshire vs. 4 Quinnipiac
12 Yale vs. 8 Providence
Northeast Regional (Worcester)
14 Clarkson vs. 2 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 7 Northeastern
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 5
Big Ten — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
NCHC — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: Yale
Out: Vermont
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/15/nine-weeks-out-and-we-can-get-a-good-regional-bracket/#ixzz2qVKttGlS
Some volatility in the Pairwise at the bubble. After last night Yale and New Hampshire would be out, Maine and Notre Dame in.
CHN and USCHO have been showing different Pairwise Rankings.
Cqn anyone enlighten us as to why they may be different?
Quote from: jkahnCHN and USCHO have been showing different Pairwise Rankings.
Cqn anyone enlighten us as to why they may be different?
Differences in calculating RPI. CHN (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php) page has this note: This chart is updated as each game result comes in. The final RPI does not currently reflect home/road weighting.
USCHO (http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/) has this to say in the Bracketology (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/15/nine-weeks-out-and-we-can-get-a-good-regional-bracket/) column: "In calculation of the index, wins on the road and losses at home have a weighting factor of 1.2. Wins at home and losses on the road have a weighting factor of 0.8. All neutral-site games have a weighting factor of 1.0. A tie is one-half of a win and one-half of a loss, so home/road ties are treated accordingly for the teams involved." And this: "There is a quality wins bonus for wins against teams in the top 20 of the RPI. A win against the No. 1 team in the RPI is worth 0.05 points, and is scaled down by 0.0025 points for each place until you reach No. 20, where a bonus of 0.0025 points will be given."
This weeks edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/22/eight-weeks-out-and-intraconference-matchups-cause-a-headache/)
West Regional (St. Paul)
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 8 St. Cloud State
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
[b][u]15 Michigan vs. 4 Union[/u][/b]
11 Notre Dame vs. 5 Ferris State
East Regional (Bridgeport)
[b][u]14 Yale vs. 3 Quinnipiac
12 Clarkson vs. 6 Providence[/u][/b]
Northeast Regional (Worcester)
[u][b]13 Cornell vs. 2 Boston College[/b][/u]
10 Wisconsin vs. 7 Northeastern
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 5[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
NCHC — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: Notre Dame
Out: New Hampshire
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/22/eight-weeks-out-and-intraconference-matchups-cause-a-headache/#ixzz2rDt1PtWs
Yale v. Quinnipiac in the first round? Just to "protect" Minnesota?
Quote from: nyc94Yale v. Quinnipiac in the first round? Just to "protect" Minnesota?
1-16 and 3-14 are the natural pairings. The only swap breaks up us versus Union (4-13), and it helps attendance in both regionals, so it makes sense to me.
We just need to move up to the 3-band and then it all goes away. :-P
Who is the Bridgeport host? Edit: acc. to below, it's Yale.
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: nyc94Yale v. Quinnipiac in the first round? Just to "protect" Minnesota?
1-16 and 3-14 are the natural pairings. The only swap breaks up us versus Union (4-13), and it helps attendance in both regionals, so it makes sense to me.
We just need to move up to the 3-band and then it all goes away. :-P
2003 rules: swap Mercyhurst and Yale. Edit: Never mind. Yale is a host. I keep forgetting that even though it was mentioned three or more times in the article. Only other option would be to swap Quinnipiac and BC and then Mercyhurst with Cornell which they would never do and would really suck for us.
For selfish reasons, I need us to move up to the 3 band or hope Yale drops out. I already have my tickets for Bridgeport (though I suppose I could double up with Worcester depending on start times).
I would think the odds are probably fairly good that one of {Clarkson, Cornell, Yale} will wind up outside. Adds just a little more urgency to the Saturday game.
Quote from: TrotskyI would think the odds are probably fairly good that one of {Clarkson, Cornell, Yale} will wind up outside. Adds just a little more urgency to the Saturday game.
Yale lost to Brown 3-1 last night and drops to 20. Colgate beat Clarkson 3-2 and is now on the bubble at 16. Clarkson holding on at 14 (tie with Notre Dame).
After Saturday, Colgate in at 15, Clarkson out at 16. Yale is 18.
Today's edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/29/seven-weeks-out-and-theres-a-path-to-a-good-bracket-for-geography/) I like it a lot.
West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Massachusetts-Lowell vs. 6 St. Cloud State
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Union[/u][/b]
12 Notre Dame vs. 5 Ferris State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
[b][u]15 Colgate vs. 2 Boston College[/u][/b]
10 Michigan vs. 8 Northeastern
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]14 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 3 Quinnipiac
11 Cornell vs. 7 Providence[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 4[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: Minnesota-Duluth, [b][u]Colgate[/u][/b]
[b][u]Out: Clarkson, Yale[/u][/b]
Attendance woes?
None.
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/29/seven-weeks-out-and-theres-a-path-to-a-good-bracket-for-geography/#ixzz2rpSX7RCF
Quote from: Jim HylaToday's edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/29/seven-weeks-out-and-theres-a-path-to-a-good-bracket-for-geography/) I like it a lot.
Guh, why? Considering how we do against elite goaltenders, I'd like to avoid Gillies as long as possible.
Quote from: RichHQuote from: Jim HylaToday's edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/29/seven-weeks-out-and-theres-a-path-to-a-good-bracket-for-geography/) I like it a lot.
Guh, why? Considering how we do against elite goaltenders, I'd like to avoid Gillies as long as possible.
Because Witt of NE is also very good, and if we get buy either of those, I'd much prefer Q over BC. I think it would be a better path to FF.
As long as we're in Bridgeport I don't care who we play. (Sub-caveat: as long as we make the tournament I don't care where we play but also Bridgeport, please.)
Quote from: ugarteAs long as we're in Bridgeport I don't care who we play. (Sub-caveat: as long as we make the tournament I don't care where we play but also Bridgeport, please.)
Eh I'd prefer we play whatever makes us most likely to get to Broad Street.
Quote from: Jim HylaQuote from: RichHQuote from: Jim HylaToday's edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/01/29/seven-weeks-out-and-theres-a-path-to-a-good-bracket-for-geography/) I like it a lot.
Guh, why? Considering how we do against elite goaltenders, I'd like to avoid Gillies as long as possible.
Because Witt of NE is also very good, and if we get buy either of those, I'd much prefer Q over BC. I think it would be a better path to FF.
It is an even year, that means that BC will win the national championship. So if we have to meet BC, let it be in the finals so we can break this pattern.
BC NCAA Tournament Championships (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_College_Eagles_men%27s_ice_hockey)
1949, 2001, 2008, 2010, 2012
Quote from: css228I'd prefer we play whatever makes us most likely to get to Broad Street.
First time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: css228I'd prefer we play whatever makes us most likely to get to Broad Street.
First time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.
Think that also applied to Valley Forge as well. Not to mention I'd rather be in Philly right now.
Quote from: css228Quote from: TrotskyFirst time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.
Think that also applied to Valley Forge
tws*s
* Peggy Shippen
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: css228Quote from: TrotskyFirst time someone really would rather be in Philadelphia.
Think that also applied to Valley Forge
tws*s
* Peggy Shippen
Had to look that one up.
Bridgeport would be great as I already have 2 tickets and plan on going there! If Cornell makes it there WONDERFUL - LGR
This week. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/05/six-weeks-out-and-this-bracket-doesnt-need-much-work/)
West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 Northeastern vs. 8 Michigan
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Wisconsin vs. 4 Union
12 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 5 Ferris State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 North Dakota vs. 2 Boston College
10 St. Cloud State vs. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 New Hampshire vs. 3 Quinnipiac
11 Providence vs. 6 Cornell
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
ECAC Hockey — 3
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 3
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: New Hampshire, North Dakota
Out: Clarkson, Notre Dame
Attendance woes?
Some uneasiness in Cincinnati.
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/05/six-weeks-out-and-this-bracket-doesnt-need-much-work/#ixzz2sU82jkCs
I like it, I like it.
Quote from: Jim HylaSome uneasiness in Cincinnati.
Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...
Quote from: KeithKQuote from: Jim HylaSome uneasiness in Cincinnati.
Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...
We who skate on slushy ponds ought not throw ice cubes....
Quote from: Jayson MoyA good bracket
Yes, that. Season end now.
Quote from: RobbQuote from: KeithKQuote from: Jim HylaSome uneasiness in Cincinnati.
Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...
We who skate on slushy ponds ought not throw ice cubes....
:)
Quote from: RitaQuote from: RobbQuote from: KeithKQuote from: Jim HylaSome uneasiness in Cincinnati.
Wait a second... When did they decide to let Cincinnati host a regional? Of course, there's uneasiness there - they'renot sure if they know how to keep the rink frozen...
We who skate on slushy ponds ought not throw ice cubes....
:)
Ah, good point. But seriously, I just today noticed that there was a Cinci regional and it brought back memories.
With Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak (http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1314/national/d1m) in the country:
Current Unbeaten Streak: W- L- T Games
Boston College 12- 0- 1 13
Cornell 5- 0- 4 9
Robert Morris 6- 0- 1 7
Minnesota Duluth 3- 0- 2 5
Michigan 3- 0- 1 4
UMass Lowell 3- 0- 0 3
Ohio State 3- 0- 0 3
Alaska 2- 0- 0 2
Michigan Tech 2- 0- 0 2
New Hampshire 2- 0- 0 2
Holy Cross 1- 0- 1 2
Mercyhurst 1- 0- 1 2
Niagara 1- 0- 1 2
Wisconsin 1- 0- 1 2
Wisconsin's win moved them up to 11 in Pairwise and in a perfect bracket they would get us in the first round. And BC is the top seed now.
Quote from: TrotskyWith Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak (http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1314/national/d1m) in the country:
Woof woof. You should know better Greg.
Quote from: KenPQuote from: TrotskyWith Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak (http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1314/national/d1m) in the country:
Woof woof. You should know better Greg.
That's a historical fact - woofs (wooves?) have to do with overconfidence about future events. Now, if he's messing with your superstitions, that's another story...
Quote from: TrotskyWith Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak (http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1314/national/d1m) in the country:
Current Unbeaten Streak: W- L- T Games
Boston College 12- 0- 1 13
Cornell 5- 0- 4 9
Robert Morris 6- 0- 1 7
Minnesota Duluth 3- 0- 2 5
Michigan 3- 0- 1 4
UMass Lowell 3- 0- 0 3
Ohio State 3- 0- 0 3
Alaska 2- 0- 0 2
Michigan Tech 2- 0- 0 2
New Hampshire 2- 0- 0 2
Holy Cross 1- 0- 1 2
Mercyhurst 1- 0- 1 2
Niagara 1- 0- 1 2
Wisconsin 1- 0- 1 2
I hate that BU loss so SO much.
Quote from: RobbQuote from: KenPQuote from: TrotskyWith Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak (http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1314/national/d1m) in the country:
Woof woof. You should know better Greg.
That's a historical fact - woofs (wooves?) have to do with overconfidence about future events. Now, if he's messing with your superstitions, that's another story...
I meant no offense against Them. la ilaha illa-llahockey, harknessun rasulu-llah.
Quote from: RichHI hate that BU loss so SO much.
I'm not sure this is a consolation, but not losing the Colgate game that followed it was a gift. I'd call those games a push, and we stole the point against a primary threat for the 4-slot so I'm cool with it.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: RichHI hate that BU loss so SO much.
I'm not sure this is a consolation, but not losing the Colgate game that followed it was a gift. I'd call those games a push, and we stole the point against a primary threat for the 4-slot so I'm cool with it.
And Cornell probably stole at least one of the UNO games to start the season, which helps our PWR standing a good amount.
BUT STILL.
FYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan :) - so have at it.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/
Quote from: adamwFYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan :) - so have at it.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/
Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.
Quote from: nyc94Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.
That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.
Just win out, baby.
Quote from: TrotskyThat way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.
I must say, that is probably not the case anymore, due to the changes in the way the Pairwise is calculated.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: nyc94Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.
That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.
Just win out, baby.
If that UMass game had been played, a tie would have us currently sitting in 10th. A loss drops us to 12th. Had we won, we're still in 6th. Bullet dodged.
Even a tie in that BU game puts us in 4th. Winning that BU game and losing the Colgate tie moves us up to 5th, to complete a prior conversation.
Quote from: RichHQuote from: TrotskyQuote from: nyc94Probably best not to play with the customized Pairwise. Just switching the Dartmouth game from Tie to Win makes Cornell the four seed.
That way lies madness. It is as likely that tweaking some obscure third party Lake State vs Western Michigan result throws us wildly up or down via the butterfly effect.
Just win out, baby.
If that UMass game had been played, a tie would have us currently sitting in 10th. A loss drops us to 12th. Had we won, we're still in 6th. Bullet dodged.
Even a tie in that BU game puts us in 4th. Winning that BU game and losing the Colgate tie moves us up to 5th, to complete a prior conversation.
Yes, madness.
Quote from: KenPQuote from: TrotskyWith Minnesota's loss, we now have the second-longest active unbeaten streak (http://www.collegehockeystats.net/1314/national/d1m) in the country:
Woof woof. You should know better Greg.
Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.
Quote from: css228Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.
"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey
Or for you young'uns:
"Luck can only get you so far." -- Hermione Granger,
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Success is equal thirds ability, luck, and work. But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.
Quote from: TrotskySuccess is equal thirds ability, luck, and work. But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.
If you don't believe me, come play blackjack at my house over the next few days.
Quote from: adamwFYI - it's been a few weeks now that our Pairwise has correctly incorporated all of the new weightings/bonus for this year. And this is the only one that is written by your friend and mine, John Whelan :) - so have at it.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/
Adam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject. (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/03_bracket_abcs_early_edition.php)
Quote from: toddloseQuote from: TrotskySuccess is equal thirds ability, luck, and work. But we might as well pretend it's all the only one we can control, since then if we succeed we can be maximally smug.
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe.
Thank you for proving my point.
Quote from: Give My RegardsQuote from: css228Or we could just believe that most winning streaks are not only a combination of skill but also lucky bounces going our way. Going forward the most you can expect out of luck in any game is that it will be neutral, so that even if we play the same caliber hockey that we have been playing during the undefeated streak, we have probably been lucky, and therefore as our luck regresses to neutral we're more likely to to lose a game or two. And this often happens at about the time fans notice a stretch of outlying results.
"Luck is the residue of design." -- Branch Rickey
Or for you young'uns:
"Luck can only get you so far." -- Hermione Granger, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Think you're missing the point of regression. By dominating possession play, you give yourself the best chance to win because assuming neutral shooting luck the team with more shots wins. But while we know that in any single game, luck is biggest deciding factor in who wins. over the long run with neutral luck, the best team should win most of the time. A 9 game streak is not the long run.
Welp, thus far that shitshow has only cost us a slip to 8.
Quote from: TrotskyWelp, thus far that shitshow has only cost us a slip to 8.
Helped by a zero-point weekend coming from only one game. Does anybody know if we can pick up the NSA feed from the men's locker room at Lynah? That would be must-see TV.
This week's edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/12/five-weeks-out-and-a-lot-of-moves-make-for-good-story-lines/)
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 2 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 7 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]14 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State[/u][/b]
10 Michigan vs. 8 St. Cloud State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
[b][u]9 Cornell vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell[/u][/b]
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Providence vs. 3 Union
11 Northeastern vs. 5 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 4[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: Vermont, [b][u]Colgate[/u][/b]
Out: New Hampshire, North Dakota
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/12/five-weeks-out-and-a-lot-of-moves-make-for-good-story-lines/#ixzz2t9JXDgTm
Quote from: Jim HylaThis week's edition. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/12/five-weeks-out-and-a-lot-of-moves-make-for-good-story-lines/)
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
13 Minnesota-Duluth vs. 2 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 7 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]14 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State[/u][/b]
10 Michigan vs. 8 St. Cloud State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
[b][u]9 Cornell vs. 6 Massachusetts-Lowell[/u][/b]
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Providence vs. 3 Union
11 Northeastern vs. 5 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 4[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: Vermont, [b][u]Colgate[/u][/b]
Out: New Hampshire, North Dakota
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/12/five-weeks-out-and-a-lot-of-moves-make-for-good-story-lines/#ixzz2t9JXDgTm
I know there's all the mixing for various reasons, but weird to see the lowest 1 seed have the (presumably) easiest bracket.
You'll like this week. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/19/four-weeks-out-and-either-michigan-or-north-dakota-has-to-move-east/)
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
[b][u]14 Cornell vs. 2 Minnesota[/u][/b]
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
15 Notre Dame vs. 4 St. Cloud State
12 North Dakota vs. 8 Ferris State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
10 Michigan vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]13 Vermont vs. 3 Union
11 Maine vs. 6 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 6
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
In: North Dakota, Notre Dame, Maine
Out: Minnesota-Duluth, [b][u]Colgate[/u][/b], Providence
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/19/four-weeks-out-and-either-michigan-or-north-dakota-has-to-move-east/#ixzz2to7X90OZ
Minnesota was inevitable.
While we wait for Jason, I gave this week a shot:
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Minnesota
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 AHA vs. 1 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Michigan vs. 3 Union
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Quinnipiac
Reasoning:
The regional distribution of 1-seeds is obvious.
The natural pattern of the 2-seeds (1/8, 2/7...) has a regional attendance problem which is solved by swapping 6 Wisconsin and 7 Quinnipiac.
The natural pattern of the 3-seeds (8/9, 7/10...) is illegal since 9 Northeastern is not allowed to face Lowell in the Northeast. Surveying the entire 3-seed pool for the best fit, I keep the only western team (10 North Dakota) in the West. This leaves one of the 2 HE teams to be screwed to the Midwest (Cornell can't be since they have to take the Northeast slot), so I screw the worst seed (12 Vermont).
The natural pattern of the 4-seeds (1/16, 2/15..) is legal.
Quote from: TrotskyWhile we wait for Jason, I gave this week a shot:
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
15 Notre Dame vs. 2 Minnesota
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 Colgate vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 AHA vs. 1 Boston College
11 Cornell vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
14 Michigan vs. 3 Union
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Quinnipiac
Reasoning:
The regional distribution of 1-seeds is obvious.
The natural pattern of the 2-seeds (1/8, 2/7...) has a regional attendance problem which is solved by swapping 6 Wisconsin and 7 Quinnipiac.
The natural pattern of the 3-seeds (8/9, 7/10...) is illegal since 9 Northeastern is not allowed to face Lowell in the Northeast. Surveying the entire 3-seed pool for the best fit, I keep the only western team (10 North Dakota) in the West. This leaves one of the 2 HE teams to be screwed to the Midwest (Cornell can't be since they have to take the Northeast slot), so I screw the worst seed (12 Vermont).
The natural pattern of the 4-seeds (1/16, 2/15..) is legal.
I came up with about the same thing. I left Wisconsin and Quiny where they were but moved us to Worcester to fix the Hockey East matchup problem.
Here we are: (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/26/three-weeks-out-and-we-can-build-a-better-west-regional/)
Definately an eastern flavor and it's nice to see someone else have to make the Minny trip.
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
[b][u]13 Colgate vs. 2 Minnesota[/u][/b]
10 North Dakota vs. 6 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
14 Michigan vs. 4 Ferris State
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Boston College
[b][u]11 Cornell vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell[/u][/b]
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Notre Dame vs. 3 Union
9 Northeastern vs. 7 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 4[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
WCHA — 1
On the move
[b][u]In: Colgate[/u][/b]
Out: Maine
Attendance woes?
No issues for me.
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/02/26/three-weeks-out-and-we-can-build-a-better-west-regional/#ixzz2uSyVx799
Humble in victory. Skilled in building a spreadsheet.
Quote from: Jason (Hockey's Mr. 538) MoyFor the past three years, I am the only prognosticator to have correctly predicted the exact brackets for the NCAA tournament, meaning that I have predicted how the committee thought when putting together the brackets.
Or his cousin works for NSA
Quote from: Jim HylaNo issues for me.
Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.
Quote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaNo issues for me.
Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.
Please explain, I don't know what you mean.
Quote from: Jim HylaQuote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaNo issues for me.
Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.
Please explain, I don't know what you mean.
Usually we get stuck playing Minnesota in Minneapolis or Wisconsin in Green Bay, but it isn't until the second round. This projects us in Worcester, where we've got Lowell in the first round and if we get past them, BC.
Quote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaQuote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaNo issues for me.
Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.
Please explain, I don't know what you mean.
Usually we get stuck playing Minnesota in Minneapolis or Wisconsin in Green Bay, but it isn't until the second round. This projects us in Worcester, where we've got Lowell in the first round and if we get past them, BC.
Based on our string of 2 wins on the road, we're peaking. The glass is half full and there's a pony nearby. With Dustin Mowrey up.
But seriously, if playoff atmosphere is worth seeding and regional points, then Cornell stays East unless there's a horrible conflict out west that can't be resolved without putting Cornell on a plane.
Quote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaQuote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaNo issues for me.
Oh, good, a road game in the first round too. That's a new one.
Please explain, I don't know what you mean.
Usually we get stuck playing Minnesota in Minneapolis or Wisconsin in Green Bay, but it isn't until the second round. This projects us in Worcester, where we've got Lowell in the first round and if we get past them, BC.
You got me with the "No issues for me." quote. Although I didn't make it clear, that's Jason Moy's quote, not mine. That's why it's before the USCHO link. I don't look at the Worcester pick the same as out west, as our fan base can travel there, if they want to. Sure it's easier for the New England teams, but if we went to Bridgeport, it's marginally easier for Q. The only non-home team road trip is Cincy, and while that's better than St. Paul, I'd be happy with either eastern site.
Quote from: Jim HylaAdam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject. (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/03_bracket_abcs_early_edition.php)
Our new Bracket ABCs article is here:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/25_bracket_abcs_late_regular.php
Jim - I didn't think the bonus wasn't publicly stated. The committee itself released how it was done, in English - and we reference it in our Primer. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi ... What are you looking to know?
Quote from: adamwQuote from: Jim HylaAdam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject. (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/03_bracket_abcs_early_edition.php)
Our new Bracket ABCs article is here:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/25_bracket_abcs_late_regular.php
Jim - I didn't think the bonus wasn't publicly stated. The committee itself released how it was done, in English - and we reference it in our Primer. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi ... What are you looking to know?
With all respect to all the hockey writers/fanatics who publish their bracket predictions, Adam's is easier to read, the boilerplate is at the end, and there's more about each team, which is what fans of those teams want. And it makes the point that the If The Season Ended Today pairings are pointless because it changes so much, but what the heck we'll publish it anyway because that's what being a fan is about.
Fans are curious to see how much emphasis the seeding committee places on good of the game, competitive atmosphere, or whatever euphemism there is for reducing empty seats in the regionals by placing teams closer to their fans. For many teams in the East / Northeaast, what matters is not getting sent to Cincinnati or St Paul (9 hours and 16 hours from Ithaca). Bridgeport and Worcester, the two eastern sites, are 115 miles apart. Cincinnati and St Paul, the two midwest/west sites, are 700 miles apart.
Quote from: billhowardWith all respect to all the hockey writers/fanatics who publish their bracket predictions, Adam's is easier to read, the boilerplate is at the end, and there's more about each team, which is what fans of those teams want. And it makes the point that the If The Season Ended Today pairings are pointless because it changes so much, but what the heck we'll publish it anyway because that's what being a fan is about.
Thanks Bill. I've been making that point for about 15 years - that it's pointless - and I've been doing those Bracket articles for CHN since we started in 2006 ... but that is the first time I gave in a little and showed a "bracket as it currently stands" just as a launching point for discussion of it. Which is often what I do in the text of the article even if not showing an actual bracket. I cannot for the life of me see the allure of dissecting a bracket as of today, since it won't be that way. But to each their own.
Quote from: adamwI cannot for the life of me see the allure of dissecting a bracket as of today, since it won't be that way. But to each their own.
At the end of long day it can be cathartic to rage at a theoretical committee for sending Cornell out to Minnesota again...
Additionally, Adam wrote a good state-of-the-team article on Cornell.
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/27_cornell_makes_its_move.php
My only pedantic comment being that the Neiley cheap-shot of Bardreau happened a few seconds after the final horn, not in the handshake line (which didn't happen).
Quote from: RichHMy only pedantic comment being that the Neiley cheap-shot of Bardreau happened a few seconds after the final horn, not in the handshake line (which didn't happen).
My less pedantic comment is that the team doesn't need to win two games for home ice; we need two points, however attained, given our tiebreak win over Yale and tiebreak tie with Q. (I.e., we win the three-way quite soundly.)
Sorry about the handshake line thing - I mis-remembered and fixed it.
The other comment about "needing two wins" wasn't meant to be that literal.
"In order to lock up a home-ice spot for the ECAC tournament, the Big Red need to win two games."
"In order to," "need"--if you're not being literal, don't write so declaratively!
PS If you change "two games" to "one game," it won't even screw up the flow of the paragraph. Indeed, it makes what you say afterward even more relevant, because no one in a Cornell sweater should ever take games against Dartmouth (a perennial bugaboo, particularly of the early 00s teams) or Harvard anything other than seriously.
Quote from: adamwQuote from: Jim HylaAdam, at some point will you state how you figured the bonus? For those who are wondering what I'm referring to, I'd ask them to read your article on the subject. (http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/03_bracket_abcs_early_edition.php)
Our new Bracket ABCs article is here:
http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/02/25_bracket_abcs_late_regular.php
Jim - I didn't think the bonus wasn't publicly stated. The committee itself released how it was done, in English - and we reference it in our Primer. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/info/?d=pwcrpi ... What are you looking to know?
Adam, I've been referring to this:
QuoteIt gets pretty technical, but essentially, you can apply the weighting against the team's winning percentage only, or against the entire RPI (which consists of winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponents winning percentage).
I've looked through the articles again, and I don't see how you've chosen to do it. Considering all the description, I could have missed it, but?
Quote from: adamwQuote from: billhowardWith all respect to all the hockey writers/fanatics who publish their bracket predictions, Adam's is easier to read, the boilerplate is at the end, and there's more about each team, which is what fans of those teams want. And it makes the point that the If The Season Ended Today pairings are pointless because it changes so much, but what the heck we'll publish it anyway because that's what being a fan is about.
Thanks Bill. I've been making that point for about 15 years - that it's pointless - and I've been doing those Bracket articles for CHN since we started in 2006 ... but that is the first time I gave in a little and showed a "bracket as it currently stands" just as a launching point for discussion of it. Which is often what I do in the text of the article even if not showing an actual bracket. I cannot for the life of me see the allure of dissecting a bracket as of today, since it won't be that way. But to each their own.
Lot's of things we do every day are pointless. Hell, my posting is pointless to most, and maybe even to me. But we do it because it's fun. I certainly don't think it means anything to post the "Bracketology" every week, but it's kind of fun to see who might get "screwed" by having to play Minny in St. Paul. That's it, I think.
Quote from: Jim HylaAdam, I've been referring to this:
QuoteIt gets pretty technical, but essentially, you can apply the weighting against the team's winning percentage only, or against the entire RPI (which consists of winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponents winning percentage).
I've looked through the articles again, and I don't see how you've chosen to do it. Considering all the description, I could have missed it, but?
That's home/road weighting - not Quality Win Bonus. Two different things. When you said "bonus," I thought you were referring to QWB, which is spelled out pretty definitively.
The home/road weighting is being applied to all three components of the RPI.
Quote from: adamwQuote from: Jim HylaAdam, I've been referring to this:
QuoteIt gets pretty technical, but essentially, you can apply the weighting against the team's winning percentage only, or against the entire RPI (which consists of winning percentage, opponent's winning percentage, and opponent's opponents winning percentage).
I've looked through the articles again, and I don't see how you've chosen to do it. Considering all the description, I could have missed it, but?
That's home/road weighting - not Quality Win Bonus. Two different things. When you said "bonus," I thought you were referring to QWB, which is spelled out pretty definitively.
The home/road weighting is being applied to all three components of the RPI.
Thanks, sorry about the confusion.
Looks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.
Quote from: ugarteLooks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.
CHN has us at 12.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: ugarteLooks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.
CHN has us at 12.
maybe late returns moved us back up
EDIT: yep, USCHO has us at 12 also
Quote from: ugarteQuote from: TrotskyQuote from: ugarteLooks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.
CHN has us at 12.
maybe late returns moved us back up
EDIT: yep, USCHO has us at 12 also
We do
not want to fall down to the four-band. That's a sure trip out west assuming BC stays #1.
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: ugarteQuote from: TrotskyQuote from: ugarteLooks like losing to Dartmouth destroyed our RPI. Down to 14 in Pairwise.
CHN has us at 12.
maybe late returns moved us back up
EDIT: yep, USCHO has us at 12 also
We do not want to fall down to the four-band. That's a sure trip out west assuming BC stays #1.
This sort of thing is why I pay attention to the Pairwise before the end of the season.
Edit: BC lost to Notre Dame and Minnesota takes over the top spot for now. They would get the Atlantic Hockey autobid.
Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.
Quote from: nyc94Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.
And I don't see any attendance changes moving us east. If they swapped us with Notre Dame (Bridgeport) it would put us against Quinny. The only attendance move is Michigan to Cincinnati and Vermont to Bridgeport.
Good news: It'll change 25 times between now and Selection Sunday.
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: nyc94Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.
And I don't see any attendance changes moving us east. If they swapped us with Notre Dame (Bridgeport) it would put us against Quinny. The only attendance move is Michigan to Cincinnati and Vermont to Bridgeport.
Good news: It'll change 25 times between now and Selection Sunday.
so when it comes to Minneapolis, you're saying there's still a chance???
Quote from: RobbQuote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: nyc94Currently 12. First round vs. St. Cloud in Cincinnati before changes for attendance.
And I don't see any attendance changes moving us east. If they swapped us with Notre Dame (Bridgeport) it would put us against Quinny. The only attendance move is Michigan to Cincinnati and Vermont to Bridgeport.
Good news: It'll change 25 times between now and Selection Sunday.
so when it comes to Minneapolis, you're saying there's still a chance???
Sadly, yes.
Edit: And it's changed already! Michigan's Sunday afternoon win over tOSU moves them to 12th and shoves everyone else down a slot. We're now 13 and will have to move to Worcester to avoid Northeastern or Vermont playing BC.
CHN Pairwise
Rank Team PCWs RPI Rk preRPI QWB-† W-L-T Win % Wgtd Win % - ‡
1 Minnesota 58 .6012 2 .5922 .0090 23-4-5 .7969 .7872
2 Boston College 57 .6012 1 .5932 .0080 25-5-4 .7941 .8047
[b][u]3 Union 55 .5818 3 .5772 .0046 24-6-4 .7647 .7688[/u][/b]
4 St. Cloud State 55 .5602 4 .5546 .0055 19-8-5 .6719 .6606
5 Wisconsin 54 .5586 5 .5538 .0048 19-9-2 .6667 .6538
6 Ferris State 53 .5584 6 .5576 .0008 23-9-3 .7000 .7246
[b][u]7 Quinnipiac 52 .5542 8 .5496 .0046 22-8-6 .6944 .6903[/u][/b]
8 Mass.-Lowell 51 .5546 7 .5506 .0040 21-9-4 .6765 .6766
9 North Dakota 50 .5516 9 .5487 .0030 19-10-3 .6406 .6369
10 Notre Dame 49 .5458 10 .5399 .0059 20-12-2 .6176 .5975
11 Providence 47 .5456 11 .5417 .0039 19-9-6 .6471 .6404
12 Michigan 46 .5430 12 .5393 .0037 16-10-4 .6000 .6069
[b][u]13 Cornell 45 .5407 13 .5388 .0019 15-8-5 .6250 .6259[/u][/b]
14 Vermont 45 .5392 14 .5366 .0026 18-12-3 .5909 .5833
15 Northeastern 44 .5387 15 .5324 .0063 18-12-4 .5882 .5901
[b][u]16 Colgate 43 .5351 17 .5277 .0074 17-12-5 .5735 .5632[/u][/b]
We need to figure in one or maybe two losses en route to the NCAAs: two wins or two out of three against Clarkson (most likely) and then an uphill game against Union in the ECAC semis Friday. Magic could happen and we run the table in the ECACs; anything seems possible after the Harvard comeback.
Time is getting closer. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/05/two-weeks-out-and-one-swap-creates-a-regional-of-familiar-foes/)
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
9 North Dakota vs. 5 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]13 Cornell vs. 4 St. Cloud State[/u][/b]
12 Michigan vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
15 Minnesota State vs. 2 Boston College
10 Notre Dame vs. 6 Ferris State
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]14 Vermont vs. 3 Union
11 Providence vs. 7 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
In: Providence, Minnesota State
Out: Northeastern, [b][u]Colgate[/u][/b]
Attendance woes?
[b][u]I am worried a bit about Cincinnati and Worcester.[/u][/b]
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/05/two-weeks-out-and-one-swap-creates-a-regional-of-familiar-foes/#ixzz2v7zuDLE6
But if Ferris beats Mankato in the WCHA tournament, then Northeastern is in and we go to Worcester.
Quote from: Jim HylaTime is getting closer. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/05/two-weeks-out-and-one-swap-creates-a-regional-of-familiar-foes/)
Wrong. (http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/3flVn_NxpDQ/hqdefault.jpg)
Quote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaTime is getting closer.
Wrong.
Oh, I dunno. Space is getting older.
Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaTime is getting closer.
Wrong.
Oh, I dunno. Space is getting older.
"And Leon's getting larger!"
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaTime is getting closer.
Wrong.
Oh, I dunno. Space is getting older.
"And Leon's getting larger!"
+1
Quote from: Jeff Hopkins '82Quote from: TrotskyQuote from: ugarteQuote from: Jim HylaTime is getting closer.
Wrong.
Oh, I dunno. Space is getting older.
"And Leon's getting larger!"
There's a sale at Pennys!
If Vermont beats UMass tonight they should move ahead of us (ignoring others results) dropping us to 14. If they lose they are probably done for the year as the Hockey East first round is single elimination.
Quote from: nyc94If Vermont beats UMass tonight they should move ahead of us (ignoring others results) dropping us to 14. If they lose they are probably done for the year as the Hockey East first round is single elimination.
Crap! UVM wins 2-1, scoring the winning goal with about a minute left.
Right now on CHN we are 13, one ten-thousandth of a point above UVM.
Quote from: TrotskyRight now on CHN we are 13, one ten-thousandth of a point above UVM.
Minnesota-Duluth beats Nebraska-Omaha so we're back to 14. Would still get BC in Worcester either way.
... aaaaand back to 13.
As if it weren't obvious, Cornell needs to win two this weekend to stay alive nationally. This summary is worth a look: http://collegehockeyranked.com/2014/03/12/final-regular-season-pairwise-forecast/
Quote from: Jim Dahl#13 Cornell is the highest ranked team with very little chance of staying in contention if swept this weekend, with a ranking of #18-#20 most likely if swept or #16-#19 most likely with a single win. Winning the round would keep Cornell in contention, most likely landing between #10-#15 (the broad range is attributable to two wins being achievable with either zero or one losses).
(http://collegehockeyranked.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/cornell1.png)
how does this calculate what happens with the schools behind us? if we lose 2 and colgate does or others as well how far do teams behind move up?
Quote from: upprdeckhow does this calculate what happens with the schools behind us? if we lose 2 and colgate does or others as well how far do teams behind move up?
Pretty sure he just does a Monte Carlo (based on KRACH?) so of the trials he ran where we lost 2, we ended up 16th in the PWR only about 1% of the time.
Here we are. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/)
This week's brackets
How does all this look? Looks good to me. I would love to swap Cornell and Michigan,
but I can't because of the Big Ten matchup. So we have to leave this as is.
West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud State
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]13 Cornell vs. 4 Wisconsin[/u][/b]
11 Providence vs. 6 Ferris State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Michigan vs. 2 Boston College
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Northeastern vs. 3 Union
9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 6
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
In: Northeastern
Out: Minnesota State
Attendance woes?
I do have some concerns now because of the way teams are spread out.
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/#ixzz2vq9igvBF
Quote from: Jim HylaHere we are. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/)
This week's brackets
How does all this look? Looks good to me. I would love to swap Cornell and Michigan,
but I can't because of the Big Ten matchup. So we have to leave this as is.
West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
12 Vermont vs. 5 St. Cloud State
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
[b][u]13 Cornell vs. 4 Wisconsin[/u][/b]
11 Providence vs. 6 Ferris State
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
14 Michigan vs. 2 Boston College
10 North Dakota vs. 8 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]15 Northeastern vs. 3 Union
9 Notre Dame vs. 7 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 6
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 1
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
In: Northeastern
Out: Minnesota State
Attendance woes?
I do have some concerns now because of the way teams are spread out.
Read more: http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/12/one-week-out-and-the-no-3-seeds-pose-some-challenges/#ixzz2vq9igvBF
I'd love it if he could swap Cornell and Michigan, too.
Despite all the bracketology, making the NCAA tournament is still not an easy task for us.
If we beat Clarkson in 3 and get beaten in the ECAC semis, the W/L% component of RPI will cause our RPI to drop .0039. That would pt us 15th today, and certainly put us in jeopardy of not qualifying.
if we go with us winning in 3, then say colgate wins in 3, likely yale loses. so 2 teams right behind us wont pass us. so many variables.
Minn St probably sweeps.
alasks wins in 3.
Minn sweeps Mich would help
NE/UNH both just behind us
lowell beating Vermont in a sweep would help
prov beating maine
minn - duluth/west mich toss up.
col college beating UND might help us as well.
Are we guaranteed an NCAA slot if we sweep Clarkson and make the final?
Self-answer: yes (http://playoffstatus.com/ncaahockey/ncaahockeytournpartprob.html).
Probabilities for making the field by winning out minus the conference final:
1.00 Uni
.99 Qpc
1.00 Cor
.98 Col
.99 Yal
The other 3 ECAC teams are listed as "X," which I guess means this metric was projected from the beginning of the playoffs (surprising -- seems simple to make it from the current moment onwards).
Quote from: TrotskyAre we guaranteed an NCAA slot if we sweep Clarkson and make the final?
Probably too early to tell.
i think we hope we sweep clarkson and then live with whatever that brings us.. probably 50/50 we sweep at best. what are the odds we then beat union 10-20%?
Quote from: upprdecki think we hope we sweep clarkson and then live with whatever that brings us.. probably 50/50 we sweep at best. what are the odds we then beat union 10-20%?
Don't rule out the chance of Yale advancing and Cornell ducking Union until the final (should they beat clarkson and colgate).
Odds of each team (http://playoffstatus.com/ecachockey/ecachockeypostseasonprob.html) advancing:
.97 Uni
.68 Qpc
.71 Col
Therefore the odds of, having advanced, playing Union in the SF are just 47%.
Scenarios:
Uni, Col, Qpc = Uni .47
Uni, Col, Yal = Col .21
Uni, SLU, Qpc = Qpc .18
Uni, SLU, Yal = Yal .08
Drt, Col, Qpc = Qpc .0145
Drt, Col, Yal = Yal .0064
Drt, SLU, Qpc = SLU .0059
Drt, SLU, Yal = Drt .0026
SF Opponent:
.47 Uni
.21 Col
.19 Qpc
.09 Yal
.0059 SLU
.0026 Drt
(Various rounding issues from source data.)
Not that this week's matters much to us. (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/19/just-days-out-and-moving-around-the-third-band-could-solve-some-attendance-issues/)
This week's brackets
West Regional (St. Paul):
16 Mercyhurst vs. 1 Minnesota
10 St. Cloud State vs. 5 Wisconsin
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati):
13 North Dakota vs. 4 Ferris State
11 Michigan vs. 8 Notre Dame
Northeast Regional (Worcester):
[b][u]15 Colgate vs. 2 Boston College[/u][/b]
12 Minnesota State vs. 7 Massachusetts-Lowell
East Regional (Bridgeport):
[b][u]14 Vermont vs. 3 Union
9 Providence vs. 6 Quinnipiac[/u][/b]
Conference breakdowns
Hockey East — 5
[b][u]ECAC Hockey — 3[/u][/b]
Big Ten — 3
NCHC — 2
WCHA — 2
Atlantic Hockey — 1
On the move
[b][u]In: Colgate[/u][/b], Minnesota State
[b][u]Out: Cornell[/u][/b], Northeastern
Attendance woes?
I do have some concerns now because of the way teams are spread out.
[url=http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2014/03/19_bracket_abcs_championship.php]And Adam's take.[/url] The Bracket
There is very little chance it happens exactly like this, but for instructional purposes, we can see what a bracket could look like if all the higher seeds win every game this weekend. First, let's place them in strict 1-16 serpentine order.
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Atlantic champ
8. Notre Dame vs. 9. Providence
2. Boston College vs. 15. Minnesota State
7. Quinnipiac vs. 10. St. Cloud State
3. Union vs. 14. Michigan
6. Wisconsin vs. 11. North Dakota
4. Ferris State vs. 13. Vermont
5. Mass.-Lowell vs. 12. Colgate
The first thing that must be changed is Notre Dame and Providence. As members of the same conference, they can't play each other. Given the attendance factor, this would be a no-brainer switch — Providence and St. Cloud State swap so that Providence plays in Worcester against Quinnipiac, and St. Cloud State plays in St. Paul against Notre Dame.
Otherwise, things are fine — though I could see the Committee doing one other swap: moving the Wisconsin-North Dakota game to Cincinnati, and the Lowell-Colgate game to Bridgeport. This, again, would maintain decent "bracket integrity" while also helping those teams' fans more easily make the games.
Keep checking in with CHN to see what happens, and our analysis of it.
So, Adam, this is what you mean. Why can't you put it down.:-D (Now watch it, I've probably screwed it up somewhere.)
St. Paul
1. Minnesota vs. 16. Atlantic champ
8. Notre Dame vs. 10. St. Cloud State
Worcester
2. Boston College vs. 15. Minnesota State
7. Quinnipiac vs. 9. Providence
Bridgeport
3. Union vs. 14. Michigan
5. Mass.-Lowell vs. 12. Colgate
Cincinnatti
4. Ferris State vs. 13. Vermont
6. Wisconsin vs. 11. North Dakota
Win, baby, win
I think that the brackets are easier to predict this year because of the increased number of leagues. There are less chances for first round conflicts.
Here is my bracket prediction.
Minnesota vs. Robert Morris
Notre Dame vs. St. Cloud
BC vs. Denver
Mass Lowell vs. Minn St.
Union vs. Vermont
QPac vs. Providence
Wisconsin vs. North Dakota
Ferris State vs. Colgate
The only question I had was whether North Dakota and Vermont would travel more or less and I kept them near home. The problem I see with my brackets is that the ECAC top two and Hockey East top two are in the same regional. I guess that could be flipped but QPac in Bridgeport makes sense for attendance and fairness to the Deerticks.
I just checked Jason Moy's prediction and see I agree with him. He has been correct many times and will likely be correct again. My analysis was simpler than Jason's as I used the CHN App calculator for pairwise and didn't realize there were any ties in ranking.
Jason's Blog (http://www.uscho.com/bracketology/2014/03/22/heres-our-final-prediction-for-the-ncaa-tournament-brackets/)
From CHN, with TV additions:
Road to Philadelphia
The 2014 NCAA tournament bracket is set, as 16 teams begin the march to the Frozen Four in Philadelphia.
West Regional (St. Paul, Minn.)
1. 3/29 5:30 ESPN2 Minnesota vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. 3/29 9:00 ESPNU Notre Dame vs. 9. St. Cloud State
3/30 7:30 FINALS ESPNU
Northeast Regional (Worcester, Mass.)
2. 3/29 4:00 ESPNU Boston College vs. 15. Denver
7. 3/29 7:30 ESPN3 Mass.-Lowell vs. 10. Minnesota State
3/30 5:00 FINALS ESPNU
East Regional (Bridgeport, Conn.)
3. 3/28 2:00 ESPNU Union vs. 13. Vermont
6. 3/28 5:30 ESPNU Quinnipiac vs. 11. Providence
3/29 3:00 FINALS ESPN2
Midwest Regional (Cincinnati)
4. 3/28 8:00 ESPNU Wisconsin vs. 14. North Dakota
5. 3/28 4:30 ESPN3 Ferris State vs. 12. Colgate
3/29 6:30 ESNU FINALS
VIEWING GUIDE
3/28 2:00 ESPNU E SEMI U-VER
4:30 ESPN3 MW SEMI GATE-FERRIS
5:30 ESPNU E SEMI Q-PROV
8:00 ESPNU MW SEMI NDAK-WISC
3/29 3:00 ESPN2 E FINALS
4:00 ESPNU NE SEMI DEN-BC
5:30 ESPN2 W SEMI MINN-RM
6:30 ESPNU MW FINALS
7:30 ESPN3 NE SEMI UML-MINNST
9:00 ESPNU W SEMI STCLD-NDAME
3/30 5:00 ESPNU NE FINALS
7:30 ESPNU W FINALS
ANY MISTAKES LET ME KNOW