ELynah Forum

General Category => Hockey => Topic started by: Trotsky on February 15, 2013, 08:18:43 AM

Title: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 15, 2013, 08:18:43 AM
Quick fan temperature check.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 15, 2013, 08:20:48 AM
The idea of this poll is to get an idea of how fans are feeling about, paradoxically, *this* year.  Is the losing streak and the poor performance an anomaly or the beginning of a slide?
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Ben on February 15, 2013, 12:20:09 PM
I was very tempted to vote 12th, but because I'm pretty sure my optimism bucket will be full to the brim by next October, I went with 4th.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: KeithK on February 15, 2013, 02:10:52 PM
Just curious why there is no way to just View Results without voting?  I don't have a strong feeling right now but I was curious what everyone else thought.  So I voted #1, thinking that might be an outlier, but either 5 other folks had the same idea or else I was misreading general fan opinion around here.

I will go out on a limb and predict that we will make the playoffs next year.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 15, 2013, 02:20:51 PM
Quote from: KeithKJust curious why there is no way to just View Results without voting?  I don't have a strong feeling right now but I was curious what everyone else thought.  So I voted #1, thinking that might be an outlier, but either 5 other folks had the same idea or else I was misreading general fan opinion around here.

I will go out on a limb and predict that we will make the playoffs next year.

I wanted to force a "gut reaction" without the idea that this is actually a poll about interpreting the current season "infecting" the results.

(I also had the thought of excluding both the 1's and 12's as either Irrational Exuberance or trolling, but they seem to be canceling each other out.  :) )

In retrospect, I should have used a "Just Show Me The Answers" option.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: French Rage on February 15, 2013, 03:17:44 PM
Quote from: KeithKJust curious why there is no way to just View Results without voting?  I don't have a strong feeling right now but I was curious what everyone else thought.  So I voted #1, thinking that might be an outlier, but either 5 other folks had the same idea or else I was misreading general fan opinion around here.

I will go out on a limb and predict that we will make the playoffs next year.

Hah, I did the exact same thing and was just about to ask myself.  If I admit it, it doesn't count as woofing.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: ftyuv on February 15, 2013, 07:35:16 PM
I don't mean to troll -- I really don't -- but what makes people so optimistic? The team is struggling this year despite a roster of raw talent that many thought would make them a top-tier team. What's going to change next year?
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: KeithK on February 15, 2013, 08:10:53 PM
Quote from: ftyuvI don't mean to troll -- I really don't -- but what makes people so optimistic? The team is struggling this year despite a roster of raw talent that many thought would make them a top-tier team. What's going to change next year?
The fact that we will still have a hell of a lot of talent on the squad next year.  This isn't a team that should be 11th in the league.  Will Schafer be able to get the team to live up to that talent? I don't know but it's certainly not unreasonable to think so. Or at least to hope so.

As noted above, I voted a fake #1 simply to see the results and post in this thread. I'm not sure what I really expect for next season.  But I think fighting for a first round bye is a lot more likely than the cellar.

If we're having this discussion next season after another horrible second half then it'll be a different story for 2014-15.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: ugarte on February 20, 2013, 11:19:07 AM
Quote from: ftyuvI don't mean to troll -- I really don't -- but what makes people so optimistic? The team is struggling this year despite a roster of raw talent that many thought would make them a top-tier team. What's going to change next year?
The team is near the bottom but the standings are (Q notwithstanding) pretty compact and the team isn't getting blown out much. Random variance can account for some of the difference between this team being in 11th instead of, say, 4th. Another year of hockey isn't going to hurt this squad.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 20, 2013, 11:24:51 AM
So, with the poll closed:

141 responses, mean 4.11

Excluding the 1s and 12s:

119 responses, mean 4.12
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: underskill on February 20, 2013, 12:23:49 PM
but if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: MattS on February 20, 2013, 12:44:56 PM
Quote from: underskillbut if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 20, 2013, 01:13:57 PM
From what (little) I've been able to piece together on the ETA of our prospects, we could be getting a significantly larger (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2013/2013_Future_Players.html) (11?!) incoming than outgoing (6 plus Omar) class.  Whether that's because of anticipated defections or just poor information (i.e., several of those guys will be deferring) I can't speculate.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: pfibiger on February 20, 2013, 02:49:43 PM
Quote from: TrotskyFrom what (little) I've been able to piece together on the ETA of our prospects, we could be getting a significantly larger (http://www.tbrw.info/?/seasons/2013/2013_Future_Players.html) (11?!) incoming than outgoing (6 plus Omar) class.  Whether that's because of anticipated defections or just poor information (i.e., several of those guys will be deferring) I can't speculate.

Remember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Two goalies out, two goalies in. If Cimetta defers (he seems most likely based on age), we bring in three defensemen (Sade, McCarron, Lewis) to replace three (Brisson, D'Agostino, Birch).

We bring in five (Buckles, Freschi, Weidner, Kubiak, Rauter) forwards to replace four (Esposito, Miller, Mihalek, Axell). Given that Schafer played Stoick at F when we were thin I wouldn't be surprised to see us add a forward overall.

So, it's a big class, but not outrageous.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 20, 2013, 03:09:30 PM
Quote from: pfibigerRemember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Not what I was getting at.  I was trying to say that we may bring in 11 slots to replace 7 in the current configuration.  I agree it would be more accurate to separate the goalies and say it's 9/2 for 6/1.  Given that the C. Espo and Hogan band aids will presumably immediately drop from the roster, it's 9/2 for 7/2, a pick up of 2 slots.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 20, 2013, 03:17:45 PM
BTW, the largest recent incoming classes (http://www.tbrw.info/reports/pdf/rpt_Players_First_Season.pdf) were:

9 2012 (Spring of entering year)
9 2010
9 2008
9 2006
9 2004
9 1998

You have to go back to 1993 and its insane 14 for a bigger class than 11, so I would say it is quite an unusually large class (if it happens).
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: underskill on February 20, 2013, 03:17:57 PM
Quote from: MattS
Quote from: underskillbut if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: scoop85 on February 20, 2013, 03:33:46 PM
Quote from: underskillbut if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

Ferlin and Lowry certainly seem to be playing their butts off from what I'm seeing. Not that this would of itself preclude them from leaving early, but if either or both left early, I don't think it would be because they aren't buying in.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: marty on February 20, 2013, 03:35:25 PM
Quote from: pfibigerRemember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Two goalies out, two goalies in. If Cimetta defers (he seems most likely based on age), we bring in three defensemen (Sade, McCarron, Lewis) to replace three (Brisson, D'Agostino, Birch).

We bring in five (Buckles, Freschi, Weidner, Kubiak, Rauter) forwards to replace four (Esposito, Miller, Mihalek, Axell). Given that Schafer played Stoick at F when we were thin I wouldn't be surprised to see us add a forward overall.

So, it's a big class, but not outrageous.

I don't even follow this "chef of the future" speculation that well, but isn't McCarron off to W. Mich or N. Mich because he couldn't get accepted ? Do I have my M's mixed?
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: pfibiger on February 20, 2013, 03:37:45 PM
Quote from: martyI don't even follow this "chef of the future" speculation that well, but isn't McCarron off to W. Mich or N. Mich because he couldn't get accepted ? Do I have my M's mixed?

You got your McCarrons mixed up. This is Patrick McCarrron, St. Michael's Buzzers defenseman, unrelated (afaik) to Mike and John. Mike McCarron is committed now to WMU
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: marty on February 20, 2013, 03:42:29 PM
Thanks, P.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: pfibiger on February 20, 2013, 03:44:38 PM
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: pfibigerRemember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Not what I was getting at.  I was trying to say that we may bring in 11 slots to replace 7 in the current configuration.  I agree it would be more accurate to separate the goalies and say it's 9/2 for 6/1.  Given that the C. Espo and Hogan band aids will presumably immediately drop from the roster, it's 9/2 for 7/2, a pick up of 2 slots.

Right, that's what I was getting at. It's 9/2 for 7/2, and I'd be stunned if we don't see one deferral, and the whole thing ends up being a net +1. The class is huge, the resulting team is big but not outrageous. I do wonder if we'll see the team get bigger over the following classes to even things out when these incoming freshmen leave?
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 20, 2013, 03:52:35 PM
Quote from: pfibiger
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: pfibigerRemember if you're saying 6 + Omar, it's really 6 + Omar and Marozzi and Brisson.

Not what I was getting at.  I was trying to say that we may bring in 11 slots to replace 7 in the current configuration.  I agree it would be more accurate to separate the goalies and say it's 9/2 for 6/1.  Given that the C. Espo and Hogan band aids will presumably immediately drop from the roster, it's 9/2 for 7/2, a pick up of 2 slots.

Right, that's what I was getting at. It's 9/2 for 7/2, and I'd be stunned if we don't see one deferral, and the whole thing ends up being a net +1. The class is huge, the resulting team is big but not outrageous. I do wonder if we'll see the team get bigger over the following classes to even things out when these incoming freshmen leave?

We seem to follow a big class / small class cycle, which would predict a small incoming class in Fall 2014.  I've always felt those waves were best smoothed out so there isn't a huge dislocation from one season to the next.  This coming year, for example, with the combination of the potentially large class, the influx of goalies of the future, and the needed turnaround from this year's clusterfuck, could make the Class of 2017 the most "make or break" in the last decade of Cornell hockey.  That's scary.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Tom Lento on February 20, 2013, 04:48:15 PM
Quote from: underskill
Quote from: MattS
Quote from: underskillbut if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

Apparently he is doing quite nicely in Vienna, averaging nearly a point per game, but that's hardly the pinnacle of professional hockey success. He's young enough that he could find his way back to the NHL, but I don't know that his odds are better than they were when he was a solid second line winger in Bridgeport.

More importantly, he went major junior, which I imagine is a different sort of decision. It's also more likely to come after a freshman year than a sophomore season, no matter how disappointing. Major junior teams can carry only 2 non-Canadians/non-US players, and 20 is the age limit. This makes Willcox and Stoick the only players on the roster with meaningful eligibility (Bardreau, MacDonald, and Ryan have a year). Realistically speaking, most of the players on this team have limited options for early departure. Their alternatives for junior level development are basically gone, so assuming they still want to play hockey the only temptation to jump ship is going to come from the NHL or from other college teams. The former is rarely an issue for late round picks, and the latter involves a transfer process and losing a year of eligibility.

(edited to reflect the rule correction Weder pointed out below, and again to remove a bit that I'm not sure about after 3 minutes of Googling for CHL eligibility)
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Jim Hyla on February 20, 2013, 05:13:20 PM
I'm not particularly surprised about having larger classes coming in. There have been times when we had no extras, and injuries were a problem. Coach has said he wants to correct that and he's been doing it. I don't know how many extra is too many, but I suspect 1-2 more is OK. Also he may bring in some that he feels would do better practicing for a year, and then be ready for when we have a large exodus. I guess what I'm saying is, I don't think you can speculate about leaving early based upon incoming class sizes. He definitely wants guys who end up being healthy scratches.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Weder on February 20, 2013, 06:18:45 PM
Quote from: Tom Lento
Quote from: underskill
Quote from: MattS
Quote from: underskillbut if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

Apparently he is doing quite nicely in Vienna, averaging nearly a point per game, but that's hardly the pinnacle of professional hockey success. He's young enough that he could find his way back to the NHL, but I don't know that his odds are better than they were when he was a solid second line winger in Bridgeport.

More importantly, he went major junior, which I imagine is a different sort of decision. It's also more likely to come after a freshman year than a sophomore season, no matter how disappointing. Major junior teams can carry only 2 non-Canadians, and 20 is the age limit. This makes Willcox the only player on the roster with meaningful eligibility (Stoick will also have at least 2 years, and Bardreau, MacDonald, and Ryan have a year, but they're not Canadian). Realistically speaking, most of the players on this team have limited options for early departure. Their alternatives for junior level development are basically gone, so assuming they still want to play hockey the only temptation to jump ship is going to come from the NHL or from other college teams. The former is rarely an issue for late round picks, and the latter involves a transfer process and losing a year of eligibility.

Pretty sure it's two non-North Americans; there are plenty of CHL teams with more than two U.S. players.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Tom Lento on February 20, 2013, 08:48:33 PM
Quote from: Weder
Quote from: Tom Lento
Quote from: underskill
Quote from: MattS
Quote from: underskillbut if there's some behind the scenes stuff going on, I wouldn't be shocked if we see some early departures either next year (Ferlin, Lowry, etc.)

I have wondered about this also. I think there are two ways to look at it strictly from a hockey standpoint... First, nobody has shown this season that they are able to consistently compete at a high level thus making a jump to a more competitive situation unwise. On the other hand, since their on-ice performance and skill are not seemingly improving thus staying at a place where one is not better themselves at the game hockey is unwise. It's a tough call either way and then throw in the CU education factor....

My guess is that everyone stays.

Tony Romano???

Apparently he is doing quite nicely in Vienna, averaging nearly a point per game, but that's hardly the pinnacle of professional hockey success. He's young enough that he could find his way back to the NHL, but I don't know that his odds are better than they were when he was a solid second line winger in Bridgeport.

More importantly, he went major junior, which I imagine is a different sort of decision. It's also more likely to come after a freshman year than a sophomore season, no matter how disappointing. Major junior teams can carry only 2 non-Canadians, and 20 is the age limit. This makes Willcox the only player on the roster with meaningful eligibility (Stoick will also have at least 2 years, and Bardreau, MacDonald, and Ryan have a year, but they're not Canadian). Realistically speaking, most of the players on this team have limited options for early departure. Their alternatives for junior level development are basically gone, so assuming they still want to play hockey the only temptation to jump ship is going to come from the NHL or from other college teams. The former is rarely an issue for late round picks, and the latter involves a transfer process and losing a year of eligibility.

Pretty sure it's two non-North Americans; there are plenty of CHL teams with more than two U.S. players.

You're right, my mistake - I clearly didn't read the requirement very carefully. I'd still be shocked to see the players on the eligibility borderline go the major junior route, but I guess it's more likely than if they were, say, Finnish.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: jtwcornell91 on February 21, 2013, 08:48:52 AM
Quote from: TrotskyBTW, the largest recent incoming classes (http://www.tbrw.info/reports/pdf/rpt_Players_First_Season.pdf) were:

9 2012 (Spring of entering year)
9 2010
9 2008
9 2006
9 2004
9 1998

You have to go back to 1993 and its insane 14 for a bigger class than 11, so I would say it is quite an unusually large class (if it happens).

Yeah, but it's not like the class of '97 accomplished much as upperclassmen. :-D
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: Trotsky on February 21, 2013, 09:22:54 AM
Quote from: jtwcornell91
Quote from: TrotskyBTW, the largest recent incoming classes (http://www.tbrw.info/reports/pdf/rpt_Players_First_Season.pdf) were:

9 2012 (Spring of entering year)
9 2010
9 2008
9 2006
9 2004
9 1998

You have to go back to 1993 and its insane 14 for a bigger class than 11, so I would say it is quite an unusually large class (if it happens).

Yeah, but it's not like the class of '97 accomplished much as upperclassmen. :-D

'96.  It's the Spring of the entry year.
Title: Re: Next Year's Finish (Poll)
Post by: ugarte on February 24, 2013, 09:02:50 AM
Quote from: ugarte
Quote from: ftyuvI don't mean to troll -- I really don't -- but what makes people so optimistic? The team is struggling this year despite a roster of raw talent that many thought would make them a top-tier team. What's going to change next year?
The team is near the bottom but the standings are (Q notwithstanding) pretty compact and the team isn't getting blown out much. Random variance can account for some of the difference between this team being in 11th instead of, say, 4th. Another year of hockey isn't going to hurt this squad.
The last two weekends are exactly why I think our team underperformed this year and we can expect a better result next year even from the exact same level of performance due strictly to variance.