ELynah Forum

General Category => Hockey => Topic started by: andyw2100 on January 28, 2010, 12:27:15 PM

Title: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: andyw2100 on January 28, 2010, 12:27:15 PM
I just got around to looking at this week's polls. They are copied below (excuse the formatting):

1/25 USA Today

1   Miami University   507   (30)   2   16-4-6
2   University of Wisconsin   472   (3)   3   14-6-4
3   University of Denver   446   (1)   1   14-6-4
4   University of North Dakota   356      6   13-8-5
5   St. Cloud State University   322      12   16-7-3
6   Bemidji State University   281      14   17-5-2
7   Yale University   272      5   11-5-3
8   Cornell University   269      7   10-5-3
9   University of Minnesota Duluth   250      4   16-9-1
10   Ferris State University   244      9   17-7-2
11   Colorado College   188      8   14-9-3
12   University of New Hampshire   144      NR   12-7-4
13   Michigan State University   128      11   16-8-4
14   University of Massachusetts   74      15   15-9-0
15   Boston College   67      10   12-8-2


1/25 USCHO

1   Miami   (37)   16-4-6   984   2
2   Wisconsin   ( 8)   14-6-4   938   3
3   Denver   ( 5)   14-6-4   917   1
4   North Dakota      13-8-5   748   5
5   St. Cloud State      16-7-3   679   12
6   Yale      11-5-3   637   6
7   Bemidji State      17-5-2   633   14
8   Cornell      10-5-3   631   9
9   Minnesota-Duluth      16-9-1   622   4
10   Ferris State      17-7-2   601   8
11   Colorado College      14-9-3   590   7
12   Michigan State      16-8-4   480   10
13   New Hampshire      12-7-4   436   16
14   Boston College      12-8-2   345   11
15   Massachusetts      15-9-0   326   15
16   Mass.-Lowell      14-9-2   226   19
17   Vermont      12-8-2   214   17
18   Union      13-6-5   210   13
19   Maine      11-9-2   69   20
20   Michigan      14-11-1   68   NR


So...in the USA Today poll, Cornell drops from 7th to 8th for splitting with the 6th place team,and the 6th place team moves up to 4th for splitting with the 7th place team? How does that make sense?

The USCHO poll is much more reasonable, with both Cornell and UND moving up a spot.

I know these are polls,and trying to understand the logic behind them is silly, but this oddness just really jumped out at me, and I had to vent. Figured this was the right place.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: CM cWo 44 on January 28, 2010, 12:31:49 PM
Some hockey writer noticed the same thing. This phenomena is mentioned in the following ECAC notebook from INCH, under "Rankings Outrage"

http://insidecollegehockey.com/inch/category/ecachockey/
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: andyw2100 on January 28, 2010, 12:49:03 PM
Quote from: CM cWo 44Some hockey writer noticed the same thing. This phenomena is mentioned in the following ECAC notebook from INCH, under "Rankings Outrage"

http://insidecollegehockey.com/inch/category/ecachockey/

Thanks for the link. The writer actually erroneously weakens his point by saying UND moved from 5th to 4th when it was actually from 6th to 4th. Even so, glad to see someone else noticed and thought it was odd.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: CowbellGuy on January 28, 2010, 12:52:32 PM
WHAT?! Polls don't make sense?! The very foundation of my being has been shattered by this revelation! I'm going to go sit quietly in the corner for a bit to contemplate this.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: billhoward on January 28, 2010, 01:08:32 PM
Maybe there is logic. Each team won a game, but North Dakota looked really good both nights. Maybe the poll voters were looking beyond the scores when ir came to moving up ND. Is there anybody who'd like to see Cornell-ND as a first-round NCAA matchup if we could defer that bracket possibility until, say, the final four? That explains North Dakota. On the other hand, we shut them out Friday (even if that was lucky - you don't win many games when you're outshot 2-1) and Saturday gave up a fluke goal, a goal that should have been a ND penalty 5 seconds earlier, and an empty net goal. So our GAA against a top five team effectively was, should have been, 0.50.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: Jim Hyla on January 28, 2010, 01:14:57 PM
Quote from: CowbellGuyWHAT?! Polls don't make sense?! The very foundation of my being has been shattered by this revelation! I'm going to go sit quietly in the corner for a bit to contemplate this.
or, to say it another way, who cares, why do you care?

Now to jump to an equally ridiculous idea, the Troy Record has an article on RPI-Union playing an outdoor game. (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/01/28/sports/doc4b6124038f828499165216.txt) I'm reading about "the first outdoor AHL game" being played in Syracuse, and I wonder why the Syr Crunch don't spend more time on trying to figure out how to win some games. Polls and outdoor hockey games are similar, they're nice to talk about but they have no meaning.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: KeithK on January 28, 2010, 01:16:25 PM
North Dakota played on the road, so they deserve more credit for the split than Cornell does.  USA Today voters may have decided that we were a bit over ranked before. You can come up with reasons if you think about it.

Of course, our esteemed host has the real answer here.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: KeithK on January 28, 2010, 01:22:57 PM
Quote from: Jim HylaNow to jump to an equally ridiculous idea, the Troy Record has an article on RPI-Union playing an outdoor game. (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/01/28/sports/doc4b6124038f828499165216.txt) I'm reading about "the first outdoor AHL game" being played in Syracuse, and I wonder why the Syr Crunch don't spend more time on trying to figure out how to win some games. Polls and outdoor hockey games are similar, they're nice to talk about but they have no meaning.
I wonder how many people who go to minor league hockey games care about who wins. I mean the game, not the fights.

Having been to a lot of minor league baseball games I can safely say that it's spectacle that sells tickets. Sure there are plenty of real fans who care about the sport and follow the game action. The excitement of an outdoor hockey game probably brings in a whole lot of cash.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: Jim Hyla on January 28, 2010, 01:24:50 PM
Quote from: KeithK
Quote from: Jim HylaNow to jump to an equally ridiculous idea, the Troy Record has an article on RPI-Union playing an outdoor game. (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/01/28/sports/doc4b6124038f828499165216.txt) I'm reading about "the first outdoor AHL game" being played in Syracuse, and I wonder why the Syr Crunch don't spend more time on trying to figure out how to win some games. Polls and outdoor hockey games are similar, they're nice to talk about but they have no meaning.
I wonder how many people who go to minor league hockey games care about who wins. I mean the game, not the fights.

Having been to a lot of minor league baseball games I can safely say that it's spectacle that sells tickets. Sure there are plenty of real fans who care about the sport and follow the game action. The excitement of an outdoor hockey game probably brings in a whole lot of cash.
Read the Record article, only if you get a whole lot of underwriting.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: andyw2100 on January 28, 2010, 02:34:30 PM
Quote from: Jim Hylaor, to say it another way, who cares, why do you care?

I don't care that much, but I'll be honest and admit that I do care a little. Why? Well, mainly because when I'm talking to (or these days Facebooking with) old Cornell friends, some of whom are the most casual of Cornell hockey fans, being able to say, "We're ranked fifth in the country", gets their attention, and gets them excited about following Cornell hockey, even if it's just for a little while. To a casual fan, a national ranking in the top 10 is one pretty simple way to understand that Cornell is doing well.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: RichH on January 28, 2010, 02:57:03 PM
Quote from: andyw2100So...in the USA Today poll, Cornell drops from 7th to 8th for splitting with the 6th place team,and the 6th place team moves up to 4th for splitting with the 7th place team? How does that make sense?

OK, you're making it seem like all the pollsters go into the same room and as a block decide where to slot teams depending on what happened the previous week.  It's a lot more random than that.  The polls are determined by assigning point values to each slot and totaling the points.  Some voters could've had us #3, and some could have us at #14 for all we know.  Maybe we landed high or low last week due to something else...  Some voters might actually take a careful look at the results & statistics from last week, and some may scribble down names on a napkin at last call depending on how teams "feel" to them.  Maybe one voter took all the 5-loss teams and listed them in reverse alphabetical order...who knows?  Actually looking at the point totals tell us something as well...look at how there's a tight bunching between 6-8 in USCHO.  You're also putting our results in a vacuum.  Other teams played and there's a bit of interconnectedness in it all.

And yeah, blah blah blah
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: Robb on January 28, 2010, 03:08:04 PM
It's also about that time of year when the pollsters start to put some stock in the PWR and/or KRACH, and our poll position will suffer predictably.  Frankly, I'm surprised we've stayed so high so long given the entire season's body of work.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: KeithK on January 28, 2010, 03:35:23 PM
Quote from: RobbIt's also about that time of year when the pollsters start to put some stock in the PWR and/or KRACH, and our poll position will suffer predictably.  Frankly, I'm surprised we've stayed so high so long given the entire season's body of work.
We've stayed so high all year because we have been annointed a "top program" by the collective college hockey world. (Or at least a quality program.)  This makes me happy.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: KeithK on January 28, 2010, 03:40:08 PM
Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: KeithK
Quote from: Jim HylaNow to jump to an equally ridiculous idea, the Troy Record has an article on RPI-Union playing an outdoor game. (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/01/28/sports/doc4b6124038f828499165216.txt) I'm reading about "the first outdoor AHL game" being played in Syracuse, and I wonder why the Syr Crunch don't spend more time on trying to figure out how to win some games. Polls and outdoor hockey games are similar, they're nice to talk about but they have no meaning.
I wonder how many people who go to minor league hockey games care about who wins. I mean the game, not the fights.

Having been to a lot of minor league baseball games I can safely say that it's spectacle that sells tickets. Sure there are plenty of real fans who care about the sport and follow the game action. The excitement of an outdoor hockey game probably brings in a whole lot of cash.
Read the Record article, only if you get a whole lot of underwriting.
OK, fair enough.  Putting together a temporary outside rink isn't cheap. However, the point still stands that those who run minor league sports usually put a lot of focus on spectacle formarketing rather than wins and losses.

Besides, to what extent do the proprieters of the Syracuse Crunch actually have a say in the wins and losses side?  They're an AHL affiliate so I assume that most of their players (their good ones anyway) are provided by the big club. Maybe the coach too? To which one could reply, maybe they should look into getting a better parent club than the Blue Jackets.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: Jim Hyla on January 28, 2010, 03:50:11 PM
Quote from: KeithK
Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: KeithK
Quote from: Jim HylaNow to jump to an equally ridiculous idea, the Troy Record has an article on RPI-Union playing an outdoor game. (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/01/28/sports/doc4b6124038f828499165216.txt) I'm reading about "the first outdoor AHL game" being played in Syracuse, and I wonder why the Syr Crunch don't spend more time on trying to figure out how to win some games. Polls and outdoor hockey games are similar, they're nice to talk about but they have no meaning.
I wonder how many people who go to minor league hockey games care about who wins. I mean the game, not the fights.

Having been to a lot of minor league baseball games I can safely say that it's spectacle that sells tickets. Sure there are plenty of real fans who care about the sport and follow the game action. The excitement of an outdoor hockey game probably brings in a whole lot of cash.
Read the Record article, only if you get a whole lot of underwriting.
OK, fair enough.  Putting together a temporary outside rink isn't cheap. However, the point still stands that those who run minor league sports usually put a lot of focus on spectacle formarketing rather than wins and losses.

Besides, to what extent do the proprieters of the Syracuse Crunch actually have a say in the wins and losses side?  They're an AHL affiliate so I assume that most of their players (their good ones anyway) are provided by the big club. Maybe the coach too? To which one could reply, maybe they should look into getting a better parent club than the Blue Jackets.
That's exactly why the Syracuse Chiefs left Toronto and signed with Washington. ::screwy::But they did do better last year. Not enough to get me to go to a game though.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: jkahn on January 28, 2010, 04:49:03 PM
Quote from: andyw2100So...in the USA Today poll, Cornell drops from 7th to 8th for splitting with the 6th place team,and the 6th place team moves up to 4th for splitting with the 7th place team? How does that make sense?

The USCHO poll is much more reasonable, with both Cornell and UND moving up a spot.

I know these are polls,and trying to understand the logic behind them is silly, but this oddness just really jumped out at me, and I had to vent. Figured this was the right place.
The analysis on this thread is all in a Cornell - No. Dakota vacuum, forgetting the fact that there are other teams and other results.  In the USCHO poll, we were behind Colorado College and Ferris State last week.  They both also split games this weekend, but as their splits weren't as impressive to some voters as ours was, we passed them both.  CC and Ferris State were already behind us in the USA Today poll.  In both polls, St. Cloud and Bemidji moved ahead of us with their sweeps and UMD dropped behind us, being swept by Bemidji.  Hence, up one spot for USCHO and down one for USA Today.

Of course, Age's point that we shouldn't have an expectation of the polls being meaningful is also valid.

And, the only ranking that really matters in the end is PWR.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: marty on January 29, 2010, 08:47:25 AM
Quote from: Jim Hyla
Quote from: CowbellGuyWHAT?! Polls don't make sense?! The very foundation of my being has been shattered by this revelation! I'm going to go sit quietly in
 the corner for a bit to contemplate this.
or, to say it another way, who cares, why do you care?

Now to jump to an equally ridiculous idea, the Troy Record has an article on RPI-Union playing an outdoor game. (http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2010/01/28/sports/doc4b6124038f828499165216.txt) I'm reading about "the first outdoor AHL game" being played in Syracuse, and I wonder why the Syr Crunch don't spend more time on trying to figure out how to win some games. Polls and outdoor hockey games are similar, they're nice to talk about but they have no meaning.

Ed Weaver is a very nice man who occasionally writes cogent articles.   Not even close on this issue.  Why would cash strapped RPI or anyone else in the Capital District consider wasting money on a second rate outdoor rink?today's Times Union (http://www.timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=894730)
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: Trotsky on January 29, 2010, 08:58:19 AM
Quote from: KeithKWe've stayed so high all year because we have been annointed a "top program" by the collective college hockey world. (Or at least a quality program.)  This makes me happy.
Probably.  It could be the consensus of voters who have seen us play is that we're legitimately a strong team.  But Occam's Razor suggests voters are lazy and ignorant and just parrot back the rankings of other years, with minor adjustments for current record.
Title: Re: 1/25 Poll Weirdness
Post by: Al DeFlorio on January 29, 2010, 09:43:07 AM
Quote from: Trotsky
Quote from: KeithKWe've stayed so high all year because we have been annointed a "top program" by the collective college hockey world. (Or at least a quality program.)  This makes me happy.
Probably.  It could be the consensus of voters who have seen us play is that we're legitimately a strong team.  But Occam's Razor suggests voters are lazy and ignorant and just parrot back the rankings of other years, with minor adjustments for current record.
Certainly true in lacrosse.