I finally got around to doing a Bradley-Terry (aka KRACH) analysis of the Division I-A football silliness. I knew that Ohio State and Boise State, being undefeated, would have "infinite" BT ratings that couldn't be compared to each other, and that Michigan, having only lost to OSU, would have an "infinite" rating that's infinitely worse than OSU and incomparible with BSU. I didn't realize that Wisconsin had only lost to Michigan, and is therefore infinitely worse than OSU and Michigan but incomparible with BSU and infinitely beter than everybody else. This complicates things, since it means Michigan and BSU actually have the same RRWP if we do the usual of assigning a .500 HHWP to BSU with the three teams with whom they're incomparible. The situation is nicely illustrated by the following chart (numbers shown are projected round-robin winning percentages):
(http://elf.elynah.com/file.php?7,file=184)
"Everybody else" fits on a traditional Bradley-Terry scale:
# Team BT RRWP W- L W/L SOS RPI
5 Florida 79836 .948 11- 1 11.00 7258 .680
6 LSU 33011 .928 10- 2 5.000 6602 .623
7 Auburn 27231 .922 10- 2 5.000 5446 .611
8 Southern Cal 24329 .919 10- 2 5.000 4866 .649
9 Arkansas 21699 .915 9- 3 3.000 7233 .599
10 Notre Dame 19169 .911 10- 2 5.000 3834 .611
11 Tennessee 14154 .899 9- 3 3.000 4718 .607
12 California 9701 .883 8- 3 2.667 3638 .602
13 Oregon St 7104 .868 8- 4 2.000 3552 .592
14 Louisville 5505 .854 11- 1 11.00 500.4 .636
15 Penn State 4542 .843 7- 4 1.750 2595 .571
16 UCLA 3744 .831 7- 5 1.400 2675 .571
17 Oregon 2886 .814 6- 5 1.200 2405 .551
18 Arizona 2562 .806 5- 6 .8333 3075 .553
19 Georgia 2494 .804 7- 4 1.750 1425 .548
20 Arizona St 2453 .803 6- 5 1.200 2045 .533
21 Washington St 2315 .799 6- 6 1.000 2315 .525
22 South Carolina 2145 .793 6- 5 1.200 1788 .570
23 West Virginia 1976 .787 9- 2 4.500 439.1 .615
24 Rutgers 1816 .781 9- 2 4.500 403.6 .608
25 Kentucky 1688 .775 6- 5 1.200 1406 .562
26 Oklahoma 1638 .773 11- 2 5.500 297.7 .599
27 Wake Forest 1539 .768 10- 2 5.000 307.8 .576
28 Virginia Tech 1456 .764 9- 2 4.500 323.5 .599
29 Washington 1152 .744 5- 7 .7143 1613 .520
30 Georgia Tech 854.2 .719 8- 4 2.000 427.1 .561
31 Boston College 795.9 .712 8- 3 2.667 298.5 .583
32 Hawai`i 727.4 .704 9- 3 3.000 242.5 .532
33 Brigham Young 669.8 .697 10- 2 5.000 134.0 .566
34 Texas 666.0 .696 8- 3 2.667 249.8 .602
35 Clemson 630.8 .691 8- 4 2.000 315.4 .542
36 Cincinnati 572.2 .682 6- 5 1.200 476.8 .575
37 Alabama 538.5 .676 6- 6 1.000 538.5 .498
38 Maryland 486.3 .666 7- 4 1.750 277.9 .557
39 Minnesota 421.8 .652 5- 6 .8333 506.2 .545
40 Purdue 376.4 .640 7- 5 1.400 268.9 .524
41 South Florida 375.5 .640 7- 4 1.750 214.6 .526
42 Texas A&M 366.8 .638 8- 3 2.667 137.6 .569
43 Nebraska 355.9 .634 8- 4 2.000 178.0 .571
44 Navy 258.7 .601 8- 3 2.667 97.00 .494
45 TCU 225.6 .586 9- 2 4.500 50.14 .538
46 Missouri 198.6 .571 7- 4 1.750 113.5 .551
47 Vanderbilt 160.7 .547 3- 8 .3750 428.4 .467
48 Indiana 153.8 .542 5- 6 .8333 184.5 .525
49 Iowa 138.8 .530 5- 6 .8333 166.6 .514
50 Houston 138.1 .530 9- 3 3.000 46.02 .541
51 Florida St 137.9 .530 6- 6 1.000 137.9 .528
52 Mississippi 136.7 .529 3- 8 .3750 364.6 .469
53 San José St 123.2 .516 7- 4 1.750 70.41 .476
54 Pittsburgh 123.0 .516 5- 6 .8333 147.5 .503
55 Texas Tech 119.7 .513 6- 5 1.200 99.76 .529
56 Nevada 116.1 .509 8- 4 2.000 58.07 .485
57 Miami FL 114.3 .507 5- 6 .8333 137.2 .496
58 Central Michigan 108.0 .501 9- 4 2.250 48.01 .529
59 Tulsa 103.8 .496 7- 4 1.750 59.30 .533
60 Stanford 97.58 .489 1-11 .0909 1073 .450
61 Kansas St 92.27 .482 6- 5 1.200 76.89 .507
62 Connecticut 89.49 .478 3- 8 .3750 238.6 .497
63 Oklahoma St 86.93 .475 5- 6 .8333 104.3 .529
64 Rice 86.28 .474 7- 5 1.400 61.63 .510
65 Southern Miss 84.97 .472 7- 5 1.400 60.70 .523
66 Syracuse 71.91 .452 4- 8 .5000 143.8 .480
67 Utah 68.11 .445 6- 5 1.200 56.76 .502
68 East Carolina 65.24 .440 7- 5 1.400 46.60 .491
69 Northwestern 56.87 .423 4- 7 .5714 99.53 .478
70 Michigan St 56.66 .423 4- 8 .5000 113.3 .466
71 Western Michigan 54.26 .417 8- 4 2.000 27.13 .489
72 Mississippi St 51.53 .411 2- 9 .2222 231.9 .454
73 Virginia 50.02 .407 5- 7 .7143 70.03 .462
74 Ohio U. 48.90 .405 8- 4 2.000 24.45 .499
75 Kansas 46.74 .399 5- 6 .8333 56.08 .463
76 Wyoming 40.70 .382 6- 6 1.000 40.70 .475
77 Middle Tennessee St 40.39 .381 6- 5 1.200 33.66 .494
78 New Mexico 40.01 .380 6- 5 1.200 33.34 .478
79 Baylor 34.62 .363 3- 8 .3750 92.31 .459
80 SMU 24.53 .322 5- 6 .8333 29.44 .461
81 Northern Illinois 23.84 .319 6- 5 1.200 19.87 .471
82 Tulane 22.76 .313 4- 8 .5000 45.52 .453
83 Troy 21.66 .308 6- 5 1.200 18.05 .451
84 Air Force 21.41 .306 4- 8 .5000 42.82 .461
85 Iowa St 19.28 .295 3- 8 .3750 51.42 .435
86 Marshall 17.84 .286 4- 7 .5714 31.23 .435
87 Ball St 17.37 .283 5- 6 .8333 20.85 .461
88 North Carolina St 17.04 .281 2- 9 .2222 76.69 .442
89 North Carolina 16.89 .280 2- 9 .2222 76.02 .449
90 UTEP 16.49 .277 5- 7 .7143 23.09 .425
91 Colorado 15.47 .270 2- 9 .2222 69.59 .415
92 Central Florida 14.67 .264 3- 8 .3750 39.13 .431
93 Illinois 13.95 .259 1-10 .1000 139.5 .435
94 Fresno St 13.62 .256 4- 8 .5000 27.24 .438
95 San Diego St 13.09 .252 3- 8 .3750 34.90 .441
96 Arkansas St 11.61 .240 6- 6 1.000 11.61 .419
97 Louisiana-Lafayette 10.38 .228 5- 6 .8333 12.45 .441
98 Colorado St 10.15 .226 3- 8 .3750 27.05 .406
99 Alabama-Birmingham 9.757 .222 3- 9 .3333 29.27 .398
100 Akron 9.259 .217 5- 7 .7143 12.96 .427
101 Florida Atlantic 8.982 .214 4- 7 .5714 15.72 .413
102 Army 8.802 .212 2- 9 .2222 39.61 .417
103 Toledo 8.671 .210 4- 7 .5714 15.17 .413
104 Idaho 8.275 .206 3- 8 .3750 22.07 .419
105 Kent St 8.141 .204 6- 6 1.000 8.141 .411
106 Louisiana-Monroe 4.818 .158 3- 8 .3750 12.85 .390
107 UNLV 3.399 .131 1-10 .1000 33.99 .384
108 New Mexico St 3.141 .126 2- 8 .2500 12.56 .391
109 Memphis 2.808 .118 1-10 .1000 28.08 .365
110 North Texas 2.632 .114 3- 9 .3333 7.895 .371
111 Miami OH 2.605 .113 2-10 .2000 13.02 .372
112 Louisiana Tech 2.461 .109 2-10 .2000 12.30 .403
113 Bowling Green 2.296 .105 4- 8 .5000 4.593 .395
114 Buffalo 1.801 .091 2-10 .2000 9.005 .405
115 Utah St 1.420 .079 1-11 .0909 15.62 .396
116 Eastern Michigan 1.345 .076 1-11 .0909 14.79 .364
117 Temple 1.255 .073 1-11 .0909 13.81 .395
I have some ideas for a Bayesian approach where results modify a prior reflecting ignorance about the strengths of the teams; these may get tested depending on how my vacation goes.
Wow. Guess JTW didn't have a lot of last-minute shopping to do.
Thanks for this analysis, though: it gives those of us who think it should be OSU-Michigan in the title game another reason to consider ourselves right.
I also like the "Hawai'i"
Neat. Thanks, John.
And it's also another reason for those of us who think it should be Boise against Ohio State to believe WE'RE right. :-P
Yeah Boise State!! It was very nice to see BSU take down Oklahoma, especially after listening to the pundits on espn radio saying that they didn't have a shot to win and their best chance was to lose by 10 points or less.
Some very gutsy calls that paid off big.
[quote Rita]Yeah Boise State!! It was very nice to see BSU take down Oklahoma, especially after listening to the pundits on espn radio not saying that they didn't have a shot to win and their best chance was to lose by 10 points or less. Some very gutsy calls that paid off big.[/quote]
Cheer for the neutral fan, arms pointing: "Football factory. Potato factory." Score one for the little guy.
What database did you use for the results to all D-1 college football games? Also, how do games against non D-1 schools factor into the calc?
Games against non-D1 schools don't count. Scores from http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/scores.htm and team list from http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/conferences.htm
[quote jtwcornell91]I finally got around to doing a Bradley-Terry (aka KRACH) analysis of the Division I-A football silliness. I knew that Ohio State and Boise State, being undefeated, would have "infinite" BT ratings that couldn't be compared to each other, and that Michigan, having only lost to OSU, would have an "infinite" rating that's infinitely worse than OSU and incomparible with BSU. I didn't realize that Wisconsin had only lost to Michigan, and is therefore infinitely worse than OSU and Michigan but incomparible with BSU and infinitely beter than everybody else. This complicates things, since it means Michigan and BSU actually have the same RRWP if we do the usual of assigning a .500 HHWP to BSU with the three teams with whom they're incomparible. The situation is nicely illustrated by the following chart (numbers shown are projected round-robin winning percentages):
(http://elf.elynah.com/file.php?7,file=184)
"Everybody else" fits on a traditional Bradley-Terry scale:
[code]
# Team BT RRWP W- L W/L SOS RPI
5 Florida 79836 .948 11- 1 11.00 7258 .680
6 LSU 33011 .928 10- 2 5.000 6602 .623[/quote]
Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?
Michigan and Wisconsin can be placed in the body of the chart now, right?
[quote Trotsky]Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?[/quote]
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm
184 out of 706. Poor Principia...
so now does florida come out on top?
[quote Dpperk29]so now does florida come out on top?[/quote]
Boise State all the way!
[quote Jacob '06][quote Dpperk29]so now does florida come out on top?[/quote]
Boise State all the way![/quote]
Right, because Boise State is the only undefeated team.
[quote Scersk '97][quote Trotsky]Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?[/quote]
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm
184 out of 706. Poor Principia...[/quote]
Interesting. Several D-II conferences rank above I-AA. The Ivies are the 16th-strongest conference, so I guess when we hit about 75 bowl game (in, say, 2012), Ivies will start to get bids.
[quote Scersk '97][quote Trotsky]Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?[/quote]
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm
184 out of 706. Poor Principia...[/quote]
They claim they use Bradley-Terry yet undefeated Boise State is 7th. Explanation?
[quote DeltaOne81][quote Scersk '97][quote Trotsky]Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?[/quote]
http://prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu/cfootball/ratings.htm
184 out of 706. Poor Principia...[/quote]
They claim they use Bradley-Terry yet undefeated Boise State is 7th. Explanation?[/quote]One way to get around the infinite rating issue is to add a fictitious team to the rankings who has played and tied all teams. This gives everyone a non-zero and non-perfect winning percentage. I can easily imagine Boise State's SoS factors driving them to 7th if this were done.
I never managed to write it all up, but if you look at things from a Bayesian point of view, the usual Bradley-Terry (complete with undefined ML estimates) arises from the choice of a Jeffreys prior on each team's rating (uniform in the logarithm). If you use a prior which is instead uniform in the HHWP of each team vs the "fictitious team" with a rating of 100, the MLE automatically exists, and looks like the thing Ken used to do, only you get two games against the fictitious team: one win and one loss. The
pre-bowl rankings look like this (the first column is the rating, the second is the common log of the rating divided by 100, the next two--identical because of an internal check I never got around to putting out--are the one-sigma errorbar on that logarithm, holding all the other ratings fixed at their maximum-likelihood values, and the last one is the one-sigma errorbar after marginalizing over all the other ratings):
Ohio State 2450 3.199 .8043 .8043 .8615
Michigan 1510 2.715 .6218 .6218 .6973
Florida 1506 2.712 .5775 .5775 .6483
Boise St 1125 2.420 .7939 .7939 .8362
Louisville 912.2 2.211 .5798 .5798 .6324
Southern Cal 879.6 2.174 .4893 .4893 .5527
LSU 785.6 2.061 .5329 .5329 .6030
Wisconsin 726.7 1.983 .6377 .6377 .7000
Auburn 712.7 1.964 .5374 .5374 .6045
Notre Dame 682.7 1.921 .5359 .5359 .5834
Arkansas 572.1 1.744 .5086 .5086 .5812
Tennessee 530.2 1.668 .4882 .4882 .5552
West Virginia 518.2 1.645 .5219 .5219 .5798
Rutgers 501.6 1.613 .5257 .5257 .5858
Oklahoma 494.2 1.598 .4894 .4894 .5406
California 469.5 1.547 .4638 .4638 .5330
Wake Forest 452.7 1.510 .5075 .5075 .5643
Virginia Tech 442.1 1.486 .5124 .5124 .5665
Oregon St 371.4 1.312 .4458 .4458 .5217
Texas 349.3 1.251 .4999 .4999 .5542
Brigham Young 332.5 1.202 .5094 .5094 .5574
Boston College 315.1 1.148 .4811 .4811 .5373
Penn State 278.3 1.023 .5283 .5283 .5915
UCLA 260.8 .9587 .4259 .4259 .4945
Texas A&M 255.5 .9380 .4804 .4804 .5367
Georgia 247.9 .9079 .4895 .4895 .5474
Georgia Tech 247.0 .9041 .4584 .4584 .5135
TCU 241.2 .8805 .5174 .5174 .5694
Nebraska 236.6 .8612 .4573 .4573 .5127
Hawai`i 225.1 .8112 .5056 .5056 .5582
South Carolina 219.6 .7868 .4680 .4680 .5280
Oregon 218.3 .7807 .4469 .4469 .5193
Clemson 216.4 .7718 .4618 .4618 .5182
Maryland 215.1 .7658 .4616 .4616 .5190
Kentucky 211.8 .7503 .4818 .4818 .5385
Cincinnati 208.1 .7327 .4867 .4867 .5447
Arizona St 192.4 .6545 .4463 .4463 .5176
Houston 191.0 .6472 .4498 .4498 .5033
Arizona 187.6 .6294 .4434 .4434 .5138
South Florida 186.1 .6209 .4876 .4876 .5435
Missouri 176.9 .5705 .4465 .4465 .4970
Navy 176.8 .5697 .5225 .5225 .5599
Washington St 169.5 .5279 .4388 .4388 .5069
Central Michigan 162.5 .4858 .4664 .4664 .5179
Purdue 155.9 .4438 .4439 .4439 .5065
Tulsa 140.2 .3377 .4530 .4530 .5041
Minnesota 139.0 .3293 .4870 .4870 .5451
Washington 129.1 .2556 .4344 .4344 .5032
Texas Tech 128.9 .2537 .4489 .4489 .5005
Southern Miss 125.6 .2275 .4545 .4545 .5110
Florida St 121.9 .1983 .4403 .4403 .4910
Alabama 120.8 .1889 .5084 .5084 .5614
Nevada 118.0 .1654 .4805 .4805 .5370
Rice 116.8 .1553 .4275 .4275 .4754
Ohio U. 115.3 .1422 .4639 .4639 .5159
Kansas St 114.2 .1328 .4541 .4541 .5059
Indiana 113.9 .1300 .4679 .4679 .5254
Western Michigan 111.7 .1110 .4390 .4390 .4927
Iowa 107.2 .0697 .4712 .4712 .5275
San José St 105.0 .0484 .4876 .4876 .5476
Oklahoma St 104.1 .0401 .4404 .4404 .4948
East Carolina 102.2 .0220 .4320 .4320 .4838
Utah 99.99 - 0 .4794 .4794 .5392
Pittsburgh 99.14 - 0 .4569 .4569 .5085
Miami FL 93.33 -.0691 .4901 .4901 .5414
Middle Tennessee St 91.71 -.0866 .4857 .4857 .5371
New Mexico 80.18 -.2208 .4527 .4527 .5122
Northern Illinois 73.70 -.3052 .4772 .4772 .5357
Wyoming 73.32 -.3104 .4452 .4452 .5032
Kansas 71.34 -.3377 .4417 .4417 .4939
Troy 66.56 -.4071 .4579 .4579 .5117
Connecticut 66.52 -.4077 .4857 .4857 .5356
Virginia 66.21 -.4124 .4320 .4320 .4830
Syracuse 65.57 -.4221 .4647 .4647 .5148
Northwestern 62.58 -.4687 .5104 .5104 .5648
SMU 58.92 -.5290 .4329 .4329 .4859
Mississippi 58.33 -.5391 .5105 .5105 .5627
Michigan St 57.47 -.5539 .4799 .4799 .5349
Ball St 57.15 -.5595 .4661 .4661 .5254
Vanderbilt 54.21 -.6122 .5487 .5487 .6010
Baylor 48.82 -.7170 .4782 .4782 .5278
Louisiana-Lafayette 47.25 -.7497 .4802 .4802 .5375
Air Force 47.22 -.7504 .4628 .4628 .5224
Tulane 47.08 -.7533 .4431 .4431 .4974
Arkansas St 46.81 -.7591 .4394 .4394 .4975
Marshall 44.49 -.8100 .4602 .4602 .5156
UTEP 43.99 -.8211 .4250 .4250 .4777
Kent St 42.68 -.8514 .4389 .4389 .5013
Akron 41.25 -.8854 .4391 .4391 .4954
Mississippi St 40.49 -.9041 .5366 .5366 .5844
Iowa St 38.95 -.9429 .4872 .4872 .5347
Fresno St 38.85 -.9455 .4789 .4789 .5454
Florida Atlantic 36.38 -1.011 .4675 .4675 .5267
Central Florida 35.16 -1.045 .4831 .4831 .5366
Toledo 35.01 -1.050 .4432 .4432 .4996
San Diego St 34.05 -1.077 .4804 .4804 .5419
North Carolina St 33.19 -1.103 .5116 .5116 .5584
North Carolina 32.55 -1.122 .5615 .5615 .6131
Stanford 32.44 -1.126 .5845 .5845 .6324
Idaho 29.48 -1.221 .5049 .5049 .5727
Colorado 29.41 -1.224 .5117 .5117 .5590
Colorado St 28.36 -1.260 .4708 .4708 .5334
Alabama-Birmingham 26.71 -1.320 .4609 .4609 .5158
Army 25.71 -1.358 .5033 .5033 .5414
Louisiana-Monroe 24.80 -1.394 .4945 .4945 .5537
Illinois 23.17 -1.462 .5895 .5895 .6387
Bowling Green 21.29 -1.547 .4799 .4799 .5505
New Mexico St 18.11 -1.709 .5346 .5346 .6047
North Texas 17.72 -1.730 .4744 .4744 .5316
Miami OH 16.24 -1.818 .4960 .4960 .5558
Louisiana Tech 16.20 -1.820 .5306 .5306 .5979
Buffalo 15.85 -1.842 .5203 .5203 .5889
UNLV 13.55 -1.999 .5799 .5799 .6345
Memphis 12.52 -2.078 .5771 .5771 .6250
Temple 12.31 -2.095 .5938 .5938 .6462
Utah St 11.07 -2.200 .5954 .5954 .6640
Eastern Michigan 10.54 -2.250 .5672 .5672 .6153
Duke 8.795 -2.431 .7844 .7844 .8234
Florida Int'l 3.891 -3.246 .7636 .7636 .8061
Note (for those of you who got this far) that that errorbar is not actually what you really want; what's interesting is the distribution of the ratio of two teams' ratings, marginalizing ober all the others'.
(http://elf.elynah.com/file.php?7,file=205)
And here's "everybody else":
# Team BT RRWP W- L W/L SOS RPI
2 Florida 106464 .975 12- 1 12.00 8872 .698
3 Ohio State 63212 .965 12- 1 12.00 5268 .642
4 LSU 29549 .945 11- 2 5.500 5372 .633
5 Michigan 24880 .940 11- 2 5.500 4524 .651
6 Wisconsin 24871 .939 11- 1 11.00 2261 .597
7 Auburn 22963 .937 11- 2 5.500 4175 .620
8 Southern Cal 16721 .925 11- 2 5.500 3040 .654
9 Arkansas 12523 .914 9- 4 2.250 5566 .597
10 Louisville 8539 .896 12- 1 12.00 711.6 .652
11 Notre Dame 6750 .884 10- 3 3.333 2025 .595
12 Tennessee 6615 .883 9- 4 2.250 2940 .597
13 California 4221 .858 9- 3 3.000 1407 .603
14 Penn State 4095 .856 8- 4 2.000 2047 .573
15 Oregon St 3118 .838 9- 4 2.250 1386 .596
16 West Virginia 2999 .836 10- 2 5.000 599.8 .627
17 Georgia 2840 .832 8- 4 2.000 1420 .568
18 Rutgers 2301 .817 10- 2 5.000 460.3 .611
19 South Carolina 2012 .807 7- 5 1.400 1437 .581
20 Kentucky 1989 .806 7- 5 1.400 1421 .578
21 Wake Forest 1477 .783 10- 3 3.333 443.1 .573
22 Oklahoma 1277 .771 11- 3 3.667 348.3 .593
23 Virginia Tech 1250 .769 9- 3 3.000 416.8 .584
24 Arizona 1156 .762 5- 6 .8333 1387 .550
25 Brigham Young 1049 .754 11- 2 5.500 190.8 .572
26 Boston College 1043 .753 9- 3 3.000 347.6 .591
27 UCLA 1027 .752 7- 6 1.167 879.9 .552
28 Oregon 968.7 .747 6- 6 1.000 968.7 .544
29 Washington St 923.9 .743 6- 6 1.000 923.9 .521
30 Georgia Tech 771.7 .726 8- 5 1.600 482.3 .555
31 Texas 759.6 .725 9- 3 3.000 253.2 .591
32 Arizona St 742.1 .723 6- 6 1.000 742.1 .525
33 Hawai`i 721.2 .720 10- 3 3.333 216.4 .539
34 Cincinnati 670.7 .713 7- 5 1.400 479.1 .582
35 Maryland 666.0 .712 8- 4 2.000 333.0 .563
36 Clemson 610.2 .704 8- 5 1.600 381.4 .530
37 Washington 506.1 .686 5- 7 .7143 708.5 .515
38 South Florida 461.2 .676 8- 4 2.000 230.6 .541
39 Texas A&M 392.2 .660 8- 4 2.000 196.1 .558
40 Nebraska 386.3 .658 8- 5 1.600 241.4 .563
41 TCU 299.9 .631 10- 2 5.000 59.98 .547
42 Florida St 255.5 .614 7- 6 1.167 219.0 .538
43 Alabama 196.6 .584 6- 7 .8571 229.3 .486
44 Purdue 194.4 .583 7- 6 1.167 166.6 .513
45 Missouri 193.9 .583 7- 5 1.400 138.5 .532
46 Navy 178.8 .573 8- 4 2.000 89.40 .486
47 Texas Tech 176.0 .572 7- 5 1.400 125.7 .531
48 Miami FL 171.4 .568 6- 6 1.000 171.4 .508
49 Minnesota 152.8 .555 5- 7 .7143 213.9 .524
50 Houston 136.3 .542 9- 4 2.250 60.56 .531
51 Oklahoma St 135.1 .541 6- 6 1.000 135.1 .527
52 Central Michigan 122.7 .529 10- 4 2.500 49.09 .531
53 Pittsburgh 120.9 .527 5- 6 .8333 145.0 .508
54 San José St 107.9 .513 8- 4 2.000 53.93 .489
55 Kansas St 102.1 .507 6- 6 1.000 102.1 .506
56 Vanderbilt 101.7 .506 3- 8 .3750 271.2 .463
57 Utah 100.9 .505 7- 5 1.400 72.08 .516
58 Indiana 98.13 .502 5- 6 .8333 117.8 .508
59 Mississippi 97.73 .501 3- 8 .3750 260.6 .465
60 Southern Miss 90.32 .492 8- 5 1.600 56.45 .524
61 Iowa 83.43 .482 5- 7 .7143 116.8 .500
62 Connecticut 80.98 .478 3- 8 .3750 215.9 .498
63 Tulsa 73.07 .466 7- 5 1.400 52.19 .513
64 Nevada 68.07 .457 8- 5 1.600 42.55 .476
65 Syracuse 66.02 .453 4- 8 .5000 132.0 .482
66 Rice 58.73 .438 7- 6 1.167 50.34 .491
67 Stanford 55.85 .432 1-11 .0909 614.4 .444
68 East Carolina 55.21 .431 7- 6 1.167 47.32 .481
69 Virginia 55.00 .430 5- 7 .7143 77.00 .458
70 Kansas 52.46 .424 5- 6 .8333 62.95 .455
71 Western Michigan 48.68 .415 8- 5 1.600 30.42 .481
72 Wyoming 44.02 .403 6- 6 1.000 44.02 .477
73 Baylor 40.22 .391 3- 8 .3750 107.3 .456
74 Middle Tennessee St 40.06 .391 6- 6 1.000 40.06 .495
75 Mississippi St 39.54 .389 2- 9 .2222 178.0 .458
76 New Mexico 37.35 .382 6- 6 1.000 37.35 .474
77 Troy 37.19 .382 7- 5 1.400 26.57 .465
78 Michigan St 37.02 .381 4- 8 .5000 74.03 .453
79 Northwestern 35.68 .377 4- 7 .5714 62.45 .466
80 Ohio U. 35.66 .377 8- 5 1.600 22.29 .486
81 SMU 22.66 .322 5- 6 .8333 27.19 .452
82 Air Force 22.29 .320 4- 8 .5000 44.58 .455
83 Tulane 20.01 .307 4- 8 .5000 40.02 .448
84 Iowa St 19.47 .304 3- 8 .3750 51.91 .425
85 Northern Illinois 19.16 .302 6- 6 1.000 19.16 .465
86 North Carolina 18.93 .301 2- 9 .2222 85.20 .440
87 North Carolina St 18.01 .295 2- 9 .2222 81.06 .438
88 Marshall 16.72 .287 4- 7 .5714 29.26 .430
89 Colorado 16.59 .286 2- 9 .2222 74.67 .407
90 UTEP 15.16 .276 5- 7 .7143 21.22 .417
91 Ball St 14.68 .272 5- 6 .8333 17.61 .450
92 San Diego St 13.48 .263 3- 8 .3750 35.96 .445
93 Central Florida 13.43 .262 3- 8 .3750 35.81 .429
94 Arkansas St 13.12 .260 6- 6 1.000 13.12 .420
95 Louisiana-Lafayette 12.03 .250 5- 6 .8333 14.44 .437
96 Fresno St 11.41 .245 4- 8 .5000 22.81 .438
97 Florida Atlantic 10.73 .238 4- 7 .5714 18.78 .413
98 Colorado St 10.13 .232 3- 8 .3750 27.01 .405
99 Illinois 9.561 .227 1-10 .1000 95.61 .426
100 Alabama-Birmingham 9.353 .224 3- 9 .3333 28.06 .396
101 Army 8.460 .214 2- 9 .2222 38.07 .407
102 Akron 8.449 .214 5- 7 .7143 11.83 .426
103 Toledo 7.880 .207 4- 7 .5714 13.79 .408
104 Kent St 7.023 .197 6- 6 1.000 7.023 .402
105 Idaho 6.684 .192 3- 8 .3750 17.82 .421
106 Louisiana-Monroe 5.564 .176 3- 8 .3750 14.84 .389
107 UNLV 3.449 .137 1-10 .1000 34.49 .384
108 North Texas 2.793 .122 3- 9 .3333 8.380 .369
109 New Mexico St 2.691 .120 2- 8 .2500 10.76 .390
110 Memphis 2.667 .119 1-10 .1000 26.67 .356
111 Miami OH 2.206 .107 2-10 .2000 11.03 .365
112 Louisiana Tech 2.181 .106 2-10 .2000 10.90 .398
113 Bowling Green 1.993 .101 4- 8 .5000 3.987 .389
114 Buffalo 1.546 .087 2-10 .2000 7.729 .403
115 Utah St 1.233 .076 1-11 .0909 13.56 .398
116 Eastern Michigan 1.177 .074 1-11 .0909 12.94 .354
117 Temple 1.071 .070 1-11 .0909 11.79 .387
And with the regularizing prior:
Florida 2253 3.115 .5771 .5771 .6380
Boise St 1610 2.779 .7847 .7847 .8221
Ohio State 1467 2.685 .6223 .6223 .6717
Louisville 1245 2.522 .5744 .5744 .6249
Southern Cal 1050 2.351 .4880 .4880 .5428
LSU 1033 2.335 .5272 .5272 .5856
Michigan 995.0 2.298 .5244 .5244 .5828
Auburn 903.9 2.202 .5352 .5352 .5910
Wisconsin 874.4 2.168 .6136 .6136 .6643
West Virginia 669.4 1.901 .5169 .5169 .5716
Rutgers 595.0 1.783 .5265 .5265 .5806
Notre Dame 534.5 1.676 .4886 .4886 .5333
Arkansas 533.8 1.675 .4854 .4854 .5461
California 508.5 1.626 .4564 .4564 .5141
Tennessee 467.0 1.541 .4578 .4578 .5137
Oklahoma 438.2 1.477 .4601 .4601 .5085
Oregon St 418.3 1.431 .4411 .4411 .5049
Wake Forest 412.7 1.417 .4726 .4726 .5241
Brigham Young 404.7 1.398 .5017 .5017 .5469
Boston College 372.6 1.315 .4631 .4631 .5123
Virginia Tech 360.0 1.281 .4627 .4627 .5122
Texas 359.1 1.278 .4785 .4785 .5253
Georgia 340.7 1.226 .4762 .4762 .5288
Penn State 329.4 1.192 .4972 .4972 .5500
Kentucky 285.3 1.048 .4669 .4669 .5183
TCU 281.4 1.035 .5115 .5115 .5565
South Carolina 274.4 1.010 .4520 .4520 .5048
Hawai`i 271.4 .9985 .4970 .4970 .5445
Maryland 258.4 .9493 .4457 .4457 .4959
Cincinnati 246.7 .9029 .4671 .4671 .5199
Georgia Tech 230.6 .8356 .4328 .4328 .4839
South Florida 229.5 .8307 .4794 .4794 .5309
Texas A&M 224.3 .8079 .4497 .4497 .4989
Nebraska 219.3 .7853 .4392 .4392 .4882
UCLA 210.6 .7450 .4069 .4069 .4647
Clemson 193.9 .6620 .4360 .4360 .4861
Oregon 189.9 .6415 .4305 .4305 .4933
Arizona 188.3 .6330 .4496 .4496 .5129
Central Michigan 179.8 .5868 .4551 .4551 .5002
Washington St 167.5 .5158 .4426 .4426 .5031
Houston 166.4 .5094 .4212 .4212 .4702
Arizona St 163.3 .4904 .4294 .4294 .4918
Florida St 154.7 .4361 .4237 .4237 .4688
Missouri 153.9 .4310 .4250 .4250 .4708
Texas Tech 148.9 .3984 .4303 .4303 .4764
Navy 147.1 .3860 .4874 .4874 .5238
Southern Miss 136.7 .3126 .4367 .4367 .4866
Purdue 132.7 .2832 .4271 .4271 .4789
Washington 127.0 .2387 .4342 .4342 .4960
San José St 125.0 .2233 .4746 .4746 .5285
Utah 124.6 .2196 .4612 .4612 .5136
Oklahoma St 120.0 .1822 .4171 .4171 .4662
Miami FL 117.7 .1626 .4592 .4592 .5045
Tulsa 111.9 .1124 .4280 .4280 .4753
Minnesota 109.8 .0936 .4633 .4633 .5102
Kansas St 108.3 .0802 .4425 .4425 .4899
Pittsburgh 105.5 .0533 .4661 .4661 .5142
Indiana 103.8 .0376 .4642 .4642 .5150
Alabama 102.9 .0282 .4841 .4841 .5302
Nevada 100.5 0 .4502 .4502 .5022
Western Michigan 99.06 - 0 .4212 .4212 .4711
Ohio U. 94.83 -.0530 .4382 .4382 .4864
Rice 93.43 -.0679 .4054 .4054 .4522
Iowa 91.03 -.0939 .4513 .4513 .5005
East Carolina 89.32 -.1130 .4145 .4145 .4639
Middle Tennessee St 85.53 -.1564 .4648 .4648 .5129
Troy 82.49 -.1925 .4386 .4386 .4874
Wyoming 77.11 -.2600 .4501 .4501 .5040
New Mexico 72.55 -.3208 .4336 .4336 .4899
Kansas 71.02 -.3422 .4413 .4413 .4904
Connecticut 68.64 -.3763 .4905 .4905 .5371
Virginia 68.02 -.3854 .4320 .4320 .4793
Syracuse 68.01 -.3855 .4714 .4714 .5182
Northern Illinois 63.96 -.4469 .4587 .4587 .5114
Mississippi 59.99 -.5110 .5151 .5151 .5623
Northwestern 58.38 -.5382 .5092 .5092 .5574
Vanderbilt 56.10 -.5781 .5546 .5546 .6010
SMU 56.03 -.5792 .4304 .4304 .4814
Michigan St 54.00 -.6162 .4760 .4760 .5262
Ball St 53.62 -.6233 .4645 .4645 .5198
Baylor 49.42 -.7047 .4793 .4793 .5250
Arkansas St 47.99 -.7343 .4420 .4420 .4976
Air Force 47.70 -.7402 .4627 .4627 .5178
Louisiana-Lafayette 47.64 -.7415 .4795 .4795 .5340
Tulane 45.37 -.7903 .4427 .4427 .4951
Marshall 43.45 -.8335 .4610 .4610 .5145
Mississippi St 42.61 -.8530 .5456 .5456 .5893
UTEP 42.14 -.8643 .4225 .4225 .4739
Akron 40.44 -.9053 .4412 .4412 .4957
Kent St 39.99 -.9166 .4355 .4355 .4962
Fresno St 39.50 -.9288 .4803 .4803 .5434
Iowa St 37.91 -.9699 .4854 .4854 .5309
Florida Atlantic 37.52 -.9803 .4685 .4685 .5243
San Diego St 35.54 -1.034 .4847 .4847 .5430
Central Florida 34.42 -1.067 .4839 .4839 .5360
Toledo 33.86 -1.083 .4442 .4442 .4985
North Carolina St 33.81 -1.085 .5129 .5129 .5565
North Carolina 33.23 -1.102 .5601 .5601 .6078
Stanford 31.42 -1.158 .5827 .5827 .6258
Idaho 29.94 -1.206 .5068 .5068 .5712
Colorado 29.22 -1.230 .5112 .5112 .5564
Colorado St 28.91 -1.241 .4720 .4720 .5313
Alabama-Birmingham 26.57 -1.325 .4617 .4617 .5155
Louisiana-Monroe 25.31 -1.374 .4950 .4950 .5517
Army 24.86 -1.392 .5014 .5014 .5388
Illinois 21.92 -1.518 .5890 .5890 .6342
Bowling Green 20.48 -1.586 .4796 .4796 .5483
New Mexico St 18.20 -1.703 .5346 .5346 .6027
North Texas 17.80 -1.726 .4735 .4735 .5288
Louisiana Tech 16.31 -1.813 .5298 .5298 .5945
Miami OH 15.39 -1.871 .4949 .4949 .5528
Buffalo 15.18 -1.885 .5211 .5211 .5879
UNLV 13.83 -1.978 .5813 .5813 .6331
Memphis 12.17 -2.106 .5756 .5756 .6219
Temple 11.71 -2.145 .5927 .5927 .6433
Utah St 11.44 -2.168 .5983 .5983 .6648
Eastern Michigan 9.941 -2.309 .5658 .5658 .6120
Duke 8.956 -2.413 .7843 .7843 .8208
Florida Int'l 3.979 -3.224 .7652 .7652 .8070