Thoughts on lax tourney bid

Shoot. That's my first thought.

Harvard (17), Notre Dame (20), and Lehigh (22) are all out of the top 15 for now. And Duke is officially 26.

Leaving our sole win over the top 15 teams to be #9 Army. Would 0-1-0 do it? Very possibly not. 0-0-1? Almost certainly not. Of course, we're #2 in RPI. So would the committee leave a potential top 5 team out because we didn't have enough big wins? You're damn right they would. Let hope we don't have to find out.

And neither Brown nor Hobart could give us a quality win.


Princeton... is... huge. That's my second thought.

Our post-season is very possibly riding on the line on Saturday. Autobid wise obviously. If Princeton wins, they seal it. If we win, we "only" need to beat a
mediocre Brown team the next week. But Penn only beat them by one, so not counting anything there.

At large-wise, Princeton is currently sitting right behind us at #3. Meaning it would probably be a top 5 win. That's at least 1-1-0 or 1-0-1 are more likely to keep us in the post-season.

If they don't win Saturday, they'll need to rely on some RPI-related sympathy from the committee, or at least Harvard having a good run to finish out the season and getting back into the top 15. Or perhaps both.

And don't feel too bad for Princeton. They beat #7 JHU and #12 Penn. 0-1-1 gives them a decent shot to get there anyway. But even if they don't, I can't feel too bad for them and all their national titles .


Final thought: 3 Ivy teams? 4?

Doesn't look impossible. And its riding on Harvard, in multiple ways. They have wins over #12 Denver, #13 Penn, and #15 Stony Brook. 0-0-3 can getcha in, even if they're out of the top 15 themselves.

They also have a game against current #6 Hosftra. As well as Yale & Dartmouth. If they can beat Hofstra, and then beat Yale and Dartmouth like they should, Harvard should be at least 1-0-2.

Not only that, but that should certainly send them into the top 15 again, giving both Princeton and us a boost. Making us something like x-1-1 and Princeton x-1-2 (x = 1 for the winner on Saturday, 0 for the loser).

With a potential Cornell win, 1-1-1, 0-1-2, and 1-0-2 (or 1-0-3), all seem hard to leave out. So pull for Sucks the rest of the way - if you can.


Penn's current only top 15 win is us. They also play Maryland last week of the season. Add that win in and we could be talking about 4 Ivy teams. For some reason I'm not holding my breath on that, but we'll see. Of course, then I'd start getting worried that the committee will toss one out to spread it around, and without the Ivy title, it could be us.

Soooo, 0-0-1 is not (win-loss-tie) but (wins over top 5-wins over five through ten-wins over ten through fifteen), right?

Liz '05
Soooo, 0-0-1 is not (win-loss-tie) but (wins over top 5-wins over five through ten-wins over ten through fifteen), right?

Yeah.

Well, 1-5, 6-10, 11-5... as you doubled up 5 and 10 there

Army is rising fast in the Ratings Percentage Index. Nice. They're knocking on the door of 6-10.

Army 1, Navy 0 mid-first period. Game on CSTV Sunday noon.

Hillel Hoffmann
Army is rising fast in the Ratings Percentage Index. Nice. They're knocking on the door of 6-10.

Not only that, but Harvard and ND are both in the 11-15 range currently (14 & 15).

Making us 1-0-3 with a potential for 1-1-2. That should earn us a nice seed, especially if they look at RPI too (which those articles about Duke imply they are). Of course, with the ways teams have been movign around, 0-1- isn't impossible either.

Navy beat Army, 8-5. Don't yet know impact on Cadets' RPI. They still have Ohio State to play.

Al DeFlorio
Army 1, Navy 0 mid-first period. Game on CSTV Sunday noon.

Navy 8 Army 5, Final.

Al DeFlorio
Navy beat Army, 8-5. Don't yet know impact on Cadets' RPI. They still have Ohio State to play.

And we won't find out on laxpower until tomorrow. They generally update overnight.

DeltaOne81

Hillel Hoffmann
Army is rising fast in the Ratings Percentage Index. Nice. They're knocking on the door of 6-10.

Not only that, but Harvard and ND are both in the 11-15 range currently (14 & 15).

Making us 1-0-3 with a potential for 1-1-2. That should earn us a nice seed, especially if they look at RPI too (which those articles about Duke imply they are). Of course, with the ways teams have been movign around, 0-1- isn't impossible either.

One must remember last year's lesson: The selection committee seemed to have a formula that took into account wins AND losses against teams in the various RPI tiers. There also is some evidence that the they don't stop at the 11-15 tier -- "record" against the 16-20 tier may be incorporated.

DirecTV 629; perhaps others, too.

Cornell now at #4. Princeton passes Maryland to #5. Army down to #12. Harvard at #14 and Notre Dame at #15.

Cornell's two losses to #3 Syracuse and #17 Penn.

The seeds that matter:

- Make the tournament
- First round home field
- Seeded in the other bracket from Virginia.

It feels as if Cornell has the ability to beat any team on any given day but in the case of the Cavs I'd prefer not to test that theory for as long as possible.

billhoward
The seeds that matter:

- Make the tournament
- First round home field
- Seeded in the other bracket from Virginia.

It feels as if Cornell has the ability to beat any team on any given day but in the case of the Cavs I'd prefer not to test that theory for as long as possible.

I don't really care when Cornell matches up with UVa. I do care that they are in the North bracket with regionals at Stony Brook where Cornell can manage more of a fan showing than at Towson. It's likely that the two will be hand in hand (UVa will stay south) but that's where my thinking is anyway. Given the committees propensity for regional matchups, it wouldn't shock me if the road to Philly went through Harvard and Princeton with seeds aligning:
South- UVa/Georgetown & JHU/Maryland
North- Syracuse/Hofstra & Cornell/Princeton

It'd be some run to a title through H, P, Syracuse, and Virginia.

Chris '03

billhoward
The seeds that matter:

- Make the tournament
- First round home field
- Seeded in the other bracket from Virginia.

It feels as if Cornell has the ability to beat any team on any given day but in the case of the Cavs I'd prefer not to test that theory for as long as possible.

I don't really care when Cornell matches up with UVa. I do care that they are in the North bracket with regionals at Stony Brook where Cornell can manage more of a fan showing than at Towson. It's likely that the two will be hand in hand (UVa will stay south) but that's where my thinking is anyway. Given the committees propensity for regional matchups, it wouldn't shock me if the road to Philly went through Harvard and Princeton with seeds aligning:
South- UVa/Georgetown & JHU/Maryland
North- Syracuse/Hofstra & Cornell/Princeton

It'd be some run to a title through H, P, Syracuse, and Virginia.

For those in Ithaca, it's marginally shorter to Stony Brook than Towson, 280 miles vs. 330. For students already home, no question there are more Cornellians in the Metro NY area than Washington-Baltimore.

Regional matchups are okay by me. We know we're within one goal either way of Syracuse and Princeton. Hofstra's a challenge, but bring it on. Oh, um, Hofstra is in Stony Brook's back yard. That might help their fans turn out. Does anyone know attendance at Hofstra home games?

Worth looking over for those interested in the criteria, rankings, etc.

[www.laxpower.com]

To paraphrase the article, it sees Cornell as the solid #3 seed behind Virginia and Hofstra, with a loss at Hobart costing Cornell a top-four seed.

This is more iffy, but it sees Princeton at #8 and thus in line for a quarterfinal game against Virginia, excepting that we've been talking about how the NCAA likes regional matchups. OTOH, Princeton is just about equidistant between the two sites even if it's a North team.

billhoward
To paraphrase the article, it sees Cornell as the solid #3 seed behind Virginia and Hofstra, with a loss at Hobart costing Cornell a top-four seed.

This is more iffy, but it sees Princeton at #8 and thus in line for a quarterfinal game against Virginia, excepting that we've been talking about how the NCAA likes regional matchups. OTOH, Princeton is just about equidistant between the two sites even if it's a North team.

It's possible they'll put Virginia into the Stony Brook bracket. May depend on whether three (Cornell, Hofstra, Princeton) or four (add Syracuse) "northern" teams are seeded 1-8. I suspect they'll want to target Hopkins, Georgetown, and Maryland for Towson. Navy, too, if they gift them with a 1-8 seed. I think Syracuse is more deserving, but it wouldn't surprise me to see it be Navy instead.

If Syracuse were to sneak in instead of Navy, there'd be four "northern" teams and four "southern." The NCAA could revert back to the 1971 inaugural and have an "all-north" bracket and an "all-south" bracket, but I think they'll mix up the seedings so that two of the quarterfinal games will be "mixed" (barring first-round upsets, of course). Lots of grumblings in 1971 by the Ballmer types that the championship would in fact be determined by the "southern" semifinal. That--plus the 1970 hose job--made 1971 all the sweeter.

Real geographic progress since last year, when only one of the eight seeds (UMass) was a "northern" team.

I may be wrong, but I suspect that laxpower.com's analysis is flawed because it does not seem to take into account the (tiered) effects of losses, nor does it seem to take into account the fact that the selection committee is likely to incorporate results against teams with end-of-season RPI rankings of lower than 15.

Although it's hard to make informed predictions because we don't know the relative weight that the committee will assign to the various RPI tiers, I'm willing to guess which teams that laxpower.com has overseeded or underseeded.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Johns Hopkins and Princeton seeded significantly higher than laxpower's preliminary analysis suggests.

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Maryland seeded significantly lower than forecasted by laxpower's first-blush analysis.

I suspect they may be right about Syracuse's position just outside the fraternity of seeded teams.

Edit: I have this funny feeling that Cornell is headed for a rematch with an Ivy opponent in the first and/or quarterfinal rounds of the tournament.

The lax broadcast announcers Friday mentioned again and again my pet theory (not that it's exactly original) that the key to success in 2006 is avoiding the Virginia showdown until the final game.

If they stay south, if we stay north, if Hofstra and Cornell are the 2-3 seeds, that's the key to being successful as long as possible. Presuming we get through the first round and quarterfinal games. LGR.

... and let's hope the seeding committee takes note of our defeat of the then #2 team in the nation.

billhoward
The lax broadcast announcers Friday mentioned again and again my pet theory (not that it's exactly original) that the key to success in 2006 is avoiding the Virginia showdown until the final game.

If they stay south, if we stay north, if Hofstra and Cornell are the 2-3 seeds, that's the key to being successful as long as possible. Presuming we get through the first round and quarterfinal games. LGR.

... and let's hope the seeding committee takes note of our defeat of the then #2 team in the nation.

A Penn win over Maryland today would help a lot. On CSTV at 1pm. Lacrosse Weekly at 12:30.

Princeton is dipping its toes into the RPI top five (#5 in Hymie and laxpower RPI, #6 in Wobus RPI).

Princeton beats Brown 6-5, to split the Ivy title.

And Darmouth 14, Harvard 13 in 3 OTs! Ouch.

Nice to not be worrying about getting the at large. And hopefully Hillel's right that they'll go beyond the top 15.

DeltaOne81
And hopefully Hillel's right that they'll go beyond the top 15.

If not, we could be slotted at #5, #6, or #7, behind some combination of Virginia, Maryland, Hopkins, Syracuse, Hofstra, and Georgetown.

DeltaOne81
And Darmouth 14, Harvard 13 in 3 OTs! Ouch.

Geez, Harvard outshot Dartmouth 73-36, won 26 of 31 faceoffs, and cleared 18 of 19 vs. 22 of 30 for Dartmouth. And still managed to lose.

Al DeFlorio

DeltaOne81
And Darmouth 14, Harvard 13 in 3 OTs! Ouch.

Geez, Harvard outshot Dartmouth 73-36, won 26 of 31 faceoffs, and cleared 18 of 19 vs. 22 of 30 for Dartmouth. And still managed to lose.

Harvard sucks.

Al DeFlorio

DeltaOne81
And hopefully Hillel's right that they'll go beyond the top 15.

If not, we could be slotted at #5, #6, or #7, behind some combination of Virginia, Maryland, Hopkins, Syracuse, Hofstra, and Georgetown.

Princeton is 7 and Notre dame is 10. But Harvard fell to 17 and Army to 19.

Making us 0-2-0(-2) and 5 in RPI.

That's the problem with the lax season being so short, is that the RPI never really settles down.


Everyone's talking as if Princeton's a shoe in, and based on RPI they may be if that's a strong factor (7), but for quality wins they only beat JHU, Penn, and Harvard, for 1-0-0(-1).

Penn only beat us and UMBC, for 1-0-1. RPI of 15. Probably squarely on the bubbe.

Harvard probably needed to prove something at the end, with wins only over Penn and Denver for 0-0-2. Their weak finish (result wise at least) and a RPI of 17 probably puts them on the outside looking in.


Note that ignored SoS as a factor (except as included in RPI), because I dunno how they'd calculate it, but laxpower shows it based on Power Rankings, which is almost certainly incorrect.