Lacrosse bracketology

Some really interesting analysis in this bracketology thread at laxpower: [network.laxpower.com]

As I recall, the three ranking lists linked to in laf's initial post use calculations very consistent with those provided to the tournament committee by the NCAA.

It looks like we have a solid chance of not only getting in, but also being a top-10 seed. So we might be looking at a first-round playoff game at home. And if we win that, wouldn't we also be at home for the second round, since one of the QF sites is Ithaca?

I wonder how our Friday game at Hobart plays into all of this. Would a loss make a difference?

Thanks to the Darts, our string of Ivy League championships (shared or outright) continues...

FarEastLax
I wonder how our Friday game at Hobart plays into all of this. Would a loss make a difference?

I think we'll need a win to get a seed and a home game in the first round. And, yes, I'd expect they'd set up the brackets so that a first-round win would put Cornell in Ithaca for the quarterfinals--maybe against Syracuse.

Hobart has been moving up the RPI charts of late such that, if things stay as they are, the Hobart game will give us a slight boost in strength-of-schedule, with Hobart replacing Binghamton as the tenth and last of the ten teams counted by the NCAA in determining SOS. Hobart's players will likely be foaming at the mouth after the recent Division III announcement. It will likely be a tough game Friday night. Video available here [www.pennatlantic.com] for $5.50.

Hobart's been playing well of late, and given the demotion announcement, I think this will be a very tough game.

As that thread has evolved over the past few days, another potential scenario is surfacing: assuming that we win the Friday game at Hobart (not going to be easy), we would get a #5 seed and open at home against Colgate. If we win that game, we would take on the winner of Carolina vs. UMBC--also in Ithaca.

The NCAA has all kinds of things that need to be factored into the first round pairings. Teams cannot be forced to take more than a certain number of flights (would that include connections on the same trip? ); attendance should be maximized; if you're a host team, you get to play at home should you get that far; etc. Some of these might work in our favor this year.

All of this is speculation right now, but having an outside shot at facing Carolina again in 2008--this time at home--is very interesting.

Posted by the NCAA this morning: [web1.ncaa.org]?

Cornell's "quality win/loss" point score is also reasonably strong. A win Friday night could get the Red a 5-8 seed. As of 4/29, Cornell's losses are to two 1-5 RPI teams and an 11-15 team. Best wins over three 11-15 RPI teams, one 16-20, and two 26-30.

If Loyola beats JHU, does that knock Hopkins out of the tournament?

ugarte
If Loyola beats JHU, does that knock Hopkins out of the tournament?

Don't think so. Might knock 'em out of a top eight seed, though. Hop will still have a high RPI and SOS.

Al DeFlorio

ugarte
If Loyola beats JHU, does that knock Hopkins out of the tournament?

Don't think so. Might knock 'em out of a top eight seed, though. Hop will still have a high RPI and SOS.

Right. You only need to be .500 to make it and Hop is 7-5 with one to play and strong SOS (which counts for 35% straight up plus is factored heavily into QW). The crazy thing about Hop and 'Cuse is that they can schedule 10 top flight teams and 3-5 crummy teams and skate into the tourney if they win enough tough games to be .500.

The fact that SOS is based on top 10 toughest games and teams don't have nearly a standard number of games is absurd. And don't get me started on the ACC love-in. At the very least Duke shouldn't have HALF it's SOS numbers based on playing MD,NC,UVa,NC,UVa. Is it too hard to only count unique opponents?

Chris '03
The fact that SOS is based on top 10 toughest games and teams don't have nearly a standard number of games is absurd. And don't get me started on the ACC love-in. At the very least Duke shouldn't have HALF it's SOS numbers based on playing MD,NC,UVa,NC,UVa. Is it too hard to only count unique opponents?

I think they may have reduced the weighting of SOS in the formula, but the NCAA seems to keep that stuff a mystery. Seems to me if they count all games in RPI and quality win/loss points they should count 'em all in SOS.

The ACC tournament is simply preposterous. Four teams play a regular-season round-robin and then a four-team tournament to determine a league winner that doesn't get an automatic bid to the NCAAs. For what purpose other than to boost their rankings in the selection/seeding criteria?

I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.

CM cWo 44
I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.

If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head. If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it. Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way. Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule. If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion. It ain't over 'til it's over.

Al DeFlorio

CM cWo 44
I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.

If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head. If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it. Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way. Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule. If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion. It ain't over 'til it's over.

Yes, I know the automatic bid scenarios. I just don't see why lax is the only Ivy sport that uses a regular season tiebreaker to determine its NCAA Championships entrant.

CM cWo 44

Al DeFlorio

CM cWo 44
I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.

If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head. If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it. Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way. Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule. If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion. It ain't over 'til it's over.

Yes, I know the automatic bid scenarios. I just don't see why lax is the only Ivy sport that uses a regular season tiebreaker to determine its NCAA Championships entrant.

Sorry, I read your post incorrectly.

It may be a timing issue. With Princeton and Brown playing Saturday in the season finale and the selection being done Sunday, when would they have the playoff? The lacrosse season now starts in the middle of winter in order to be finished in time for the three-weekend tournament. Might really have to squeeze things to finish the season early enough "just in case" there's a tie for the championship and the need for a playoff.

Al DeFlorio

CM cWo 44

Al DeFlorio

CM cWo 44
I don't see why lax doesn't have a playoff in the event of a tie. I know Ivy is anti-league postseason, but baseball and softball have playoffs, and basketball has a tie-breaking playoff.

It looks like CU is in either way, but it could be unfair say we tie Bruno and they are on the outside looking in, without the at-large to fall back on. Seems like it's inconsistent with other sports.

If we tie Brown, we get the automatic bid, based on head-to-head. If we tie Princeton, Princeton gets it. Go Brown.

Not clear if we're in either way. Last night's UMBC and Albany wins knocked us down a couple of notches in strength of schedule. If UMBC beats Albany and Cornell loses to Hobart, Cornell may fall behind UMBC in the quality win/loss points criterion. It ain't over 'til it's over.

Yes, I know the automatic bid scenarios. I just don't see why lax is the only Ivy sport that uses a regular season tiebreaker to determine its NCAA Championships entrant.

Sorry, I read your post incorrectly.

It may be a timing issue. With Princeton and Brown playing Saturday in the season finale and the selection being done Sunday, when would they have the playoff? The lacrosse season now starts in the middle of winter in order to be finished in time for the three-weekend tournament. Might really have to squeeze things to finish the season early enough "just in case" there's a tie for the championship and the need for a playoff.

So clearly we need Brown and Princeton to fight to the death...and tie.

What are the RS tie rules for lacrosse?

French Rage
What are the RS tie rules for lacrosse?

There are no ties, it goes to sudden death OT. Not sure if there is a limit on the number of OTs, but I don't think i've seen any go past 3 ( I believe they are 4 minute periods).

Jacob '06

French Rage
What are the RS tie rules for lacrosse?

There are no ties, it goes to sudden death OT. Not sure if there is a limit on the number of OTs, but I don't think i've seen any go past 3 ( I believe they are 4 minute periods).

Which makes me wonder why Laxpower has a column for ties on all their pages that list teams' records.

Josh '99

Jacob '06

French Rage
What are the RS tie rules for lacrosse?

There are no ties, it goes to sudden death OT. Not sure if there is a limit on the number of OTs, but I don't think i've seen any go past 3 ( I believe they are 4 minute periods).

Which makes me wonder why Laxpower has a column for ties on all their pages that list teams' records.

I wondered the same thing, so I figured there might be some limit...not that I found anyone with anything other than zero in the ties column.

Never ever heard of a tie in lacrosse. OTs until there's a goal, but in a relatively high scoring sport we're not talking about a marathon of OTs. No idea why Laxpower has the column - maybe they just took the script to generate the standings from some other sport or a generic one.

Killer

Josh '99

Jacob '06

French Rage
What are the RS tie rules for lacrosse?

There are no ties, it goes to sudden death OT. Not sure if there is a limit on the number of OTs, but I don't think i've seen any go past 3 ( I believe they are 4 minute periods).

Which makes me wonder why Laxpower has a column for ties on all their pages that list teams' records.

I wondered the same thing, so I figured there might be some limit...not that I found anyone with anything other than zero in the ties column.

There is no limit on overtimes, but I couldn't find any anything in the rules about how to handle a game that ends prematurely due to weather, even though there is a whole appendix on the subject of lightning.
By the way, they use the politically correct term "sudden-victory overtime."

Rule Book
SECTION 5. In the event of a tie at the end of the regulation game, play shall be continued, after a two-minute intermission, with sudden-victory overtime.
In sudden-victory overtime, teams shall play periods of four minutes each until a goal is scored, thus deciding a winner. The game ends upon the scoring of the first goal. There will be a two-minute intermission between sudden-victory periods.

Sudden-Victory Overtime Play
SECTION 30. In the event of a tie at the end of the regulation game, a coin shall be flipped by the referee, with the captain who wins the toss selecting the goal his team wishes to defend. Play shall continue after an intermission of two minutes.
All sudden-victory overtime periods shall be started with a faceoff.
(Exception: Rule 4-3.) Play shall proceed for a four-minute period or until a goal is scored. At the end of the four-minute period, there shall be a two minute intermission and the teams shall change goals. Four-minute periods shall be continued in this manner until a goal is scored. Each team is entitled to one timeout per sudden-victory period.

Josh '99

Jacob '06

French Rage
What are the RS tie rules for lacrosse?

There are no ties, it goes to sudden death OT. Not sure if there is a limit on the number of OTs, but I don't think i've seen any go past 3 ( I believe they are 4 minute periods).

Which makes me wonder why Laxpower has a column for ties on all their pages that list teams' records.

They may have picked up a packaged stats program that allows for ties.

David Harding
By the way, they use the politically correct term "sudden-victory overtime."

Always look on the briiight side of life! Dadum, dadum dadum dadum.

DeltaOne81
Never ever heard of a tie in lacrosse. OTs until there's a goal, but in a relatively high scoring sport we're not talking about a marathon of OTs. No idea why Laxpower has the column - maybe they just took the script to generate the standings from some other sport or a generic one.

There are not supposed to be ties in baseball either, but if the game is in extra-innings and the skies open up or it gets too late, the game can end in a tie. I suppose that could happen in lax also. If lax teams would play through rain, substitute "lightning storm" or "earthquake". Of course, it happens rarely enough in MLB that the newspapers don't bother with a T column.

UMBC tonight came back from 2-11 (not a typo) to beat Albany and win its league, 14-13.

The committee is really going to have its hands full this year both in selecting and seeding. Tomorrow's GWLL championship game probably won't help clarify things much.

ugarte
There are not supposed to be ties in baseball either, but if the game is in extra-innings and the skies open up or it gets too late, the game can end in a tie. I suppose that could happen in lax also. If lax teams would play through rain, substitute "lightning storm" or "earthquake". Of course, it happens rarely enough in MLB that the newspapers don't bother with a T column.

I can't claim to know the details of the ins and out of NCAA rules to say what would happen in lax, but in MLB I'm pretty darn sure they would finish off the game at a later date.

DeltaOne81

ugarte
There are not supposed to be ties in baseball either, but if the game is in extra-innings and the skies open up or it gets too late, the game can end in a tie. I suppose that could happen in lax also. If lax teams would play through rain, substitute "lightning storm" or "earthquake". Of course, it happens rarely enough in MLB that the newspapers don't bother with a T column.

I can't claim to know the details of the ins and out of NCAA rules to say what would happen in lax, but in MLB I'm pretty darn sure they would finish off the game at a later date.

There are circumstances in which the game is a tie and just gets replayed, but the statistics of the original game count.

jtwcornell91

DeltaOne81

ugarte
There are not supposed to be ties in baseball either, but if the game is in extra-innings and the skies open up or it gets too late, the game can end in a tie. I suppose that could happen in lax also. If lax teams would play through rain, substitute "lightning storm" or "earthquake". Of course, it happens rarely enough in MLB that the newspapers don't bother with a T column.

I can't claim to know the details of the ins and out of NCAA rules to say what would happen in lax, but in MLB I'm pretty darn sure they would finish off the game at a later date.

There are circumstances in which the game is a tie and just gets replayed, but the statistics of the original game count.

MLB Rules
4.10 (d) If a regulation game is called with the score tied, it shall become a suspended game. See Rule 4.12.

4.12 Suspended Games
(b)(4) Any suspended game not completed prior to the last scheduled game between the two teams during the championship season shall become a called game. If such game becomes a called game and ...
(ii) has progressed far enough to become a regulation game, and the score is tied, the game shall be declared a “tie game.” A tie game is to be replayed in its entirety, unless the league president determines that playing the rescheduled game is not necessary to affect the league championship.

#8 seed, hosting Ohio State in the first round. Bracketed with #1 Duke.

Josh '99
#8 seed, hosting Ohio State in the first round. Bracketed with #1 Duke.

OSU won't be an easy out, but I would love another crack at Duke. It would be nice to finally get them on our home field -- and getting them in the tournament is probably the only way we'd get them to play in Ithaca.

#1 Duke (16-1) vs. Loyola (7-6)
#8 Cornell (11-3) vs. Ohio State (10-5)

#5 Hopkins (8-5) vs. Hofstra (10-5)
#4 North Carolina (8-5) vs. Navy (9-5)

#3 Syracuse (12-2) vs. Canisius (10-5)
#6 Notre Dame (13-2) vs. Colgate (11-5)

#7 Maryland (9-5) vs. Denver (10-6)
#2 Virginia (12-3) vs. UMBC (12-3)

Josh '99
#1 Duke (16-1) vs. Loyola (7-6)
#8 Cornell (11-3) vs. Ohio State (10-5)

#5 Hopkins (8-5) vs. Hofstra (10-5)
#4 North Carolina (8-5) vs. Navy (9-5)

#3 Syracuse (12-2) vs. Canisius (10-5)
#6 Notre Dame (13-2) vs. Colgate (11-5)

#7 Maryland (9-5) vs. Denver (10-6)
#2 Virginia (12-3) vs. UMBC (12-3)

Three GWLL teams. One Ivy.

Denver getting in is a shock.. one decent win all year. now you have to wonder if we get in without the AQ.. would the win over Denver have gotten us in over them?

Duke got a terrible draw. As a reward for earning the top seed, they get a pretty dangerous Loyola team in the first round. If they win, they get the longest road trip of any seeded team to their quarterfinal venue, where (if the seeded teams hold serve) they'll play the No. 8 seed at the lower seed's home stadium.

Georgetown fans are going to fume. Looking at the other seeds, our position is about right, even though Hopkins seems inexplicably high IMHO. What have they done except lose to good teams? Best wins over UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland--way to go, guys.

Typical.

And I think you're completely right about Duke's draw, Hillel. That immediately stuck out, compared to Syracuse's Canisius gift.

Probably not. Head-to-head competition matters not in the formula used by the committee. Just ask Georgetown; I'm not a big fan of the G-men, but I can't understand how a team like Denver would get in, while the G-men will sit at home.

Scersk '97
What have they done except lose to good teams? Best wins over UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland--way to go, guys.

Don't you know, that's the single most important thing you can do in lacrosse! Johns Hopkins really landed a big recruiting win when they got that high-sought after AD's administrative assistant to handle their scheduling.

I understand that it's not about head-to-head, but isn't it all about your wins vs. teams at various RPI levels? I mean, yes, Hop has a great SOS, but their QWs? Not so much. (UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland's RPIs were not exactly stellar this year)

Yeah, clearly SOS is now 75% of the final seedings; hence, Maryland's similarly inflated seeding.

Scersk '97
Yeah, clearly SOS is now 75% of the final seedings; hence, Maryland's similarly inflated seeding.

The 3 main criteria are RPI, SoS, and QWs.

RPI is mathematically 75% SoS. SoS is of course 100% SoS. And QW factor is highly highly dependent on SoS, considering that 'quality losses' are penalized in only the tiniest bit.

So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.

Scersk '97
Georgetown fans are going to fume. Looking at the other seeds, our position is about right, even though Hopkins seems inexplicably high IMHO. What have they done except lose to good teams? Best wins over UMBC, Princeton, and Maryland--way to go, guys.

Typical.

And I think you're completely right about Duke's draw, Hillel. That immediately stuck out, compared to Syracuse's Canisius gift.

That's a freaking cakewalk for SU, in tournament terms. The toughest team in the way to Foxboro will be either Notre Dame or Colgate (who beat them, but they've seen before).

Before the bracket was revealed, I knew I was rooting for 2 things: Cornell to win and Duke to lose. Why not us? Duke coming to Schoellkopf. Now that would be a chance to vent. To them and to the NCAA. Is it too early to start a "anti-Duke signs" thread? I'll start it with "eligibility schmeligibility"

I know zilch about tOSU other than what their record tells me. They beat UNC 14-11 three weeks ago. Their only losses before last week were OT losses to tournament teams: Navy, Bucknell (3OT), and UMBC (2OT). Then they lost to Notre Dame twice in the past week: 17-12 and 9-2. The ND goalie had 18 saves today.

If the NCAA schedules the first round games to only allow two flights, those have to be Denver-Maryland and Colgate-ND. That means OSU has to get on a bus for Ithaca. Also, anyone want to crank up the snow machine for May?

That's a long trip for Colgate fans making their first tournament. Would've been nicer to send them to the slaughter at the Carrier Dome, but Canisius (also a 1st timer) get that honor.

DeltaOne81

Scersk '97
Yeah, clearly SOS is now 75% of the final seedings; hence, Maryland's similarly inflated seeding.

The 3 main criteria are RPI, SoS, and QWs.

RPI is mathematically 75% SoS. SoS is of course 100% SoS. And QW factor is highly highly dependent on SoS, considering that 'quality losses' are penalized in only the tiniest bit.

So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.

But then we've known that for years now. That's always been the problem with comparing JHU and SU and the 4 ACC teams to the rest. Their SOS, I prefer all caps since it's such a help to those that have it, has always given them the edge.

Keep in mind Maryland beat two top five RPI teams, UNC and Virginia. Only others to do that are Duke and Virginia.

Hopkins also has a win over Navy. Army's slipping out of the 11-15 RPI bracket hurt us.

I'm guessing our seeding came about this way: Duke and Syracuse were easy choices as #1 and #3. The two other seeded teams they wanted to play in Ithaca were Notre Dame and Cornell, so one had to be #6 and the other #8 to match up with Duke and Syracuse. I'm not sure why ND got #6 over us, unless they didn't want two central NY teams in the same quarterfinal game. ND edged Cornell in RPI and quality win/loss points (at least based on laf's calculations on laxpower) but Cornell's strength of schedule was much higher (16 vs. 23). Maybe the NCAA did the quality points differently this year.

Cornell and ND were ahead of Hopkins in both RPI and quality points (again, using laf's numbers for the latter) but Hopkins had stronger schedule. So Hop got a big push from schedule over ND and Cornell, but we didn't get the same push from SOS in the comparison with Notre Dame. Ah, the mysteries of life...and NCAA lax seeding.

[Edit: Or, maybe it was simple. To get Virginia, UNC, Hopkins, and Maryland playing the quarters in Annapolis, Hopkins and Maryland had to be #5 and #7 to match up with #2 and #4. Hop beat Maryland head-to-head and had higher RPI, SOS, and quality win points, so they got #5.]

Well, step one is to get past an Ohio State team that beat UNC and Colgate.

DeltaOne81
So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.

And our two esteemed independent friends are pretty much guaranteed a seeded slot, provided they can stay above .500 after piecing together whatever sweet schedule they please. I have no doubt that Syracuse would've been seeded in 2007 had they finished over .500. As it was, they had a losing record, and were out.

RichH

DeltaOne81
So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.

And our two esteemed independent friends are pretty much guaranteed a seeded slot, provided they can stay above .500 after piecing together whatever sweet schedule they please. I have no doubt that Syracuse would've been seeded in 2007 had they won one more game. As it was, they had a losing record, and were out.

Syracuse would have needed two more wins last year (record was 5-8) but, otherwise, you're probably right.

Al DeFlorio

RichH

DeltaOne81
So your 3 criteria basically boil down to SoS, SoS, and SoS.

And our two esteemed independent friends are pretty much guaranteed a seeded slot, provided they can stay above .500 after piecing together whatever sweet schedule they please. I have no doubt that Syracuse would've been seeded in 2007 had they won one more game. As it was, they had a losing record, and were out.

Syracuse would have needed two more wins last year (record was 5-8) but, otherwise, you're probably right.

Yeah, yeah, Al. It was corrected before you posted. I figured someone here was fact-checking me simultaneously. *grumble*

Jim Hyla
But then we've known that for years now. That's always been the problem with comparing JHU and SU and the 4 ACC teams to the rest. Their SOS, I prefer all caps since it's such a help to those that have it, has always given them the edge.

On the one hand, I agree with you - what with the insularity of scheduling, the ACC teams will always have that SOS edge.

On the other hand, the ACC was 38-7 (0.844 winning percentage) in their non-conference games. UVA was 1-3 in conference and 11-0 against everyone else. UNC was 0-3 in conference and 8-2 against everyone else. They're clearly a strong group of teams. This year, in any case, there seems to be much more of an argument about Hopkins having a huge edge in seeding due to their strength of schedule than the ACC teams.

Josh '99
UNC was 0-3 in conference and 8-2 against everyone else.

UNC's only out-of-conference loss was to...gulp...Ohio State.

I can't complain much about this year's bracket. We had a good--but not outstanding--year, and for our efforts we get a home game in the first round against Ohio State. And if we can win that one, we're looking at another home game in the quarter-final round. Do any other teams have a realistic shot at consecutive home games in the first two rounds?

If we beat the Buckeyes, our second-round opponent is--unfortunately-- likely to be Duke, a scary team that has completely dismantled virtually every team they've played this year. One good thing is that we've seen that team four times since 2005, so at least we're familiar with them and their style of play.

Hillel is right: Duke didn't get much of a reward for their season. And how about the G-men? They were the only team to beat Duke. And they beat Navy, but Navy gets in.

FarEastLax
And how about the G-men? They were the only team to beat Duke. And they beat Navy, but Navy gets in.

Georgetown was #18 in RPI and #25 in SOS. They had to win their league's AQ. (Navy was #13 and #10, respectively.)

I'm no fan of the NCAA's formula, but just telling it like it is.

Al DeFlorio

Josh '99
UNC was 0-3 in conference and 8-2 against everyone else.

UNC's only out-of-conference loss was to...gulp...Ohio State.

Oh, sorry, I slipped up there. That 8-2 nonconference record includes their loss to Duke in the ACC tournament.

Al DeFlorio
Georgetown was #18 in RPI and #25 in SOS. They had to win their league's AQ. (Navy was #13 and #10, respectively.)

I'm no fan of the NCAA's formula, but just telling it like it is.

What SOS measure is that? By Laxpower's reckoning Georgetown had the #9 SOS. Looking at it qualitatively it's Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, Navy, Loyola and a pile of crap. The win over Duke looks great, the losses to Loyola and Penn State not so much. The overtime win over fellow bubble team Navy suggests, if anything, that Georgetown is also a bubble team. Really, everything else about this schedule just SCREAMS that the win over Duke was a fluke.

Hee. Really, Duke is a victim of its own "perfection," and Syracuse's (intentional?) imperfection. Had Syracuse not lost to Colgate, one could make a specious argument, based on some hand-waving like better worst loss or something, that the Cruisers deserve the #1 seed. Then the committee could've matched us up with Syracuse and sent a "new" game, for example Virginia/Notre Dame, north.

As it is, Duke had to be the #1 seed, and we are clearly (if seeded at all) the #8. Haha on Duke.

Myself, I'm glad (though I won't be able to attend) that those in Ithaca have the distinct possibility of seeing Cornell, Colgate, and Syracuse--quite a little CNY party.

Josh '99
What SOS measure is that? By Laxpower's reckoning Georgetown had the #9 SOS. Looking at it qualitatively it's Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, Navy, Loyola and a pile of crap. The win over Duke looks great, the losses to Loyola and Penn State not so much. The overtime win over fellow bubble team Navy suggests, if anything, that Georgetown is also a bubble team. Really, everything else about this schedule just SCREAMS that the win over Duke was a fluke.

This one: [www.laxpower.com]

The one you're looking at uses the laxpower computer rating to determine SOS. The one linked to above uses RPI. The NCAA uses RPI.

Al DeFlorio

Josh '99
What SOS measure is that? By Laxpower's reckoning Georgetown had the #9 SOS. Looking at it qualitatively it's Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, Navy, Loyola and a pile of crap. The win over Duke looks great, the losses to Loyola and Penn State not so much. The overtime win over fellow bubble team Navy suggests, if anything, that Georgetown is also a bubble team. Really, everything else about this schedule just SCREAMS that the win over Duke was a fluke.

This one: [www.laxpower.com]

The one you're looking at uses the laxpower computer rating to determine SOS. The one linked to above uses RPI. The NCAA uses RPI.

Ah. That's what I was figuring it must be that you were citing, I just couldn't find it. Thanks.

Josh '99

Al DeFlorio

Josh '99
What SOS measure is that? By Laxpower's reckoning Georgetown had the #9 SOS. Looking at it qualitatively it's Duke, Maryland, Syracuse, Navy, Loyola and a pile of crap. The win over Duke looks great, the losses to Loyola and Penn State not so much. The overtime win over fellow bubble team Navy suggests, if anything, that Georgetown is also a bubble team. Really, everything else about this schedule just SCREAMS that the win over Duke was a fluke.

This one: [www.laxpower.com]

The one you're looking at uses the laxpower computer rating to determine SOS. The one linked to above uses RPI. The NCAA uses RPI.

Ah. That's what I was figuring it must be that you were citing, I just couldn't find it. Thanks.

This chart ( [www.laxpower.com] ) purports to summarize the three criteria, where it appears the top team in each category is normalized to 1.00. It isn't clear to me how the "Total" column is calculated from the other three (RPI, SOS, QW). If you go down the list and check off the first nine non-AQ teams, they're the ones selected for the tournament.

Not sure how Maryland got seeded rather than OSU based on this list. Maybe Maryland's Virginia and UNC wins weighed heavily, or maybe the NCAA used a different QW calculation. Somewhere I read the NCAA was going to weigh road wins more heavily than home wins this year. (Doesn't it work that way in hockey?) That would have hurt Cornell, as only Penn, Harvard, and Hobart were road wins, with six wins at home and two at neutral sites. (Wonder if they might have considered Gillette Stadium a neutral site rather than a road game?)

Al DeFlorio
I'm not sure why ND got #6 over us, unless they didn't want two central NY teams in the same quarterfinal game. ND edged Cornell in RPI and quality win/loss points (at least based on laf's calculations on laxpower) but Cornell's strength of schedule was much higher (16 vs. 23). Maybe the NCAA did the quality points differently this year.

I've been too tied up finishing school to crunch the numbers but I don't think the laxpower numbers are right. They overstate banding. Based on Cottle's disclosures last year I was able to reverse engineer the seeds pretty easily. QW points were determined by RPI rank to the single place (so beating #1 gains 58 points, losing to #1 is a loss of 1, #2 is a -57/+2).I'll have time later in the week to see if my formula last year still works.

Chris '03

Al DeFlorio
I'm not sure why ND got #6 over us, unless they didn't want two central NY teams in the same quarterfinal game. ND edged Cornell in RPI and quality win/loss points (at least based on laf's calculations on laxpower) but Cornell's strength of schedule was much higher (16 vs. 23). Maybe the NCAA did the quality points differently this year.

I've been too tied up finishing school to crunch the numbers but I don't think the laxpower numbers are right. They overstate banding. Based on Cottle's disclosures last year I was able to reverse engineer the seeds pretty easily. QW points were determined by RPI rank to the single place (so beating #1 gains 58 points, losing to #1 is a loss of 1, #2 is a -57/+2).I'll have time later in the week to see if my formula last year still works.

QW is the only criterion where laxpower's numbers could differ from the NCAA's. RPI and SOS are pretty straightforward. I'd be interested in what you find.

FarEastLax
Do any other teams have a realistic shot at consecutive home games in the first two rounds?

No, it's impossible because the other quarterfinal site is Navy, and they start on the road at UNC.

Finally got around to reading last week's Swami. He is probably going to be apoplectic about G'town and very surprised by Cornell's seed, even though it is lower than his own rating for the team (6).