Betting lines for Cornell-Duke

Anyone know the line on Cornell-Duke?

No odds, but according to TeamRankings, Duke should win by 31.4

I took a glance at what I could find on Google and I don't see any lines for anything further in advance than tomorrow (1/3, technically today since I'm writing this after midnight). Could be that if there'll be a line, it won't be posted until Friday.

I've never understood the point of betting the spread on games that are this lopsided. Seems to me that in a more evenly matched game the likely margin of victory is more rationally related to relative team strengths, because both teams will compete hard throughout. In a lopsided game like this it seems less rational. You're betting not only on relative strengths but the likelihood of the better team putting in reserves for significant amounts of time or simply coasting because they know the game is in hand.

Just an idle comment.

KeithK
I've never understood the point of betting the spread on games that are this lopsided.

Agreed, but bettors factor that into their decision, and the line isn't fixed. If the betting is Cornell-heavy, that line will tighten up quickly. As I'm sure you know, the line is designed to get equal money bet on both sides so there is no risk to the book and all the money is made on the vig (and volume).

Yeah, I understand why the bookies take the bets. If they do their job setting the spread they'll make money, as you say. My point is that it seems like the betting line is less likely to be a good predictor of reality in this type of game than in a closely matched one. So it's harder to make a rational decision about which bet is the right one.

Then again, I'd guess that "rational" bettors (the ones that are trying to make money in net by winning 60% of their bets) probably don't bet on these games.

KeithK
Then again, I'd guess that "rational" bettors (the ones that are trying to make money in net by winning 60% of their bets) probably don't bet on these games.

"Rational" bettors put their money in the stock market. Oh, wait...

anyone get a line?

I found an early line for Duke -29.0 and an over/under of 158.

[www.vegasinsider.com]

The initial line isn't supposed to predict reality, it's supposed to predict the betting pattern. It then immediately gets pulled into true by the betting volume.

My problem is with lines on games like, say, Duke-Cornell, where one team is obscure. How do they put together the initial line on such a game? Presumably, betting will be much lighter than on games involving two nationally-known teams, so I would think the bookie is at far greater risk of a skew and thus a risk of actually losing money.

While you're absolutely right, Greg, that the betting line on games like this must be harder to set, and less likely to predict reality, I would have to imagine that there are enough games like this each year that the bookies have enough data on games like this to make a pretty good guess on how the betting would go. Afterall, if they couldn't set them profitably, they wouldn't set them at all. The fact that they apparently still do so much means they've reasonably figured it out.

With light betting the bookies' exposure is much less, too.

David Harding
With light betting the bookies' exposure is much less, too.

Anyone find a money line on this game?

Trotsky
The initial line isn't supposed to predict reality, it's supposed to predict the betting pattern. It then immediately gets pulled into true by the betting volume.

My problem is with lines on games like, say, Duke-Cornell, where one team is obscure. How do they put together the initial line on such a game? Presumably, betting will be much lighter than on games involving two nationally-known teams, so I would think the bookie is at far greater risk of a skew and thus a risk of actually losing money.

If the betting starts to skew, the bookie both move the line in order to balance the ledger and lay off the money, hedging against the lopsided betting to keep from getting squeezed if a line moves quickly from, say 10 to 12 and the favorite wins by 11, giving wins to early bettors on the favorite and late bettors on the dog.

Just put in my bet. Got Cornell +29.

CM cWo 44
Just put in my bet. Got Cornell +29.

What site do you use?

Nicely done. Hope ya made a bundle.