NCAA Division I-A Football: crazy statistical analysis

I finally got around to doing a Bradley-Terry (aka KRACH) analysis of the Division I-A football silliness. I knew that Ohio State and Boise State, being undefeated, would have "infinite" BT ratings that couldn't be compared to each other, and that Michigan, having only lost to OSU, would have an "infinite" rating that's infinitely worse than OSU and incomparible with BSU. I didn't realize that Wisconsin had only lost to Michigan, and is therefore infinitely worse than OSU and Michigan but incomparible with BSU and infinitely beter than everybody else. This complicates things, since it means Michigan and BSU actually have the same RRWP if we do the usual of assigning a .500 HHWP to BSU with the three teams with whom they're incomparible. The situation is nicely illustrated by the following chart (numbers shown are projected round-robin winning percentages):

"Everybody else" fits on a traditional Bradley-Terry scale:

  # Team                BT    RRWP  W- L   W/L   SOS  RPI
  5 Florida             79836 .948 11- 1 11.00  7258 .680
  6 LSU                 33011 .928 10- 2 5.000  6602 .623
  7 Auburn              27231 .922 10- 2 5.000  5446 .611
  8 Southern Cal        24329 .919 10- 2 5.000  4866 .649
  9 Arkansas            21699 .915  9- 3 3.000  7233 .599
 10 Notre Dame          19169 .911 10- 2 5.000  3834 .611
 11 Tennessee           14154 .899  9- 3 3.000  4718 .607
 12 California          9701  .883  8- 3 2.667  3638 .602
 13 Oregon St           7104  .868  8- 4 2.000  3552 .592
 14 Louisville          5505  .854 11- 1 11.00 500.4 .636
 15 Penn State          4542  .843  7- 4 1.750  2595 .571
 16 UCLA                3744  .831  7- 5 1.400  2675 .571
 17 Oregon              2886  .814  6- 5 1.200  2405 .551
 18 Arizona             2562  .806  5- 6 .8333  3075 .553
 19 Georgia             2494  .804  7- 4 1.750  1425 .548
 20 Arizona St          2453  .803  6- 5 1.200  2045 .533
 21 Washington St       2315  .799  6- 6 1.000  2315 .525
 22 South Carolina      2145  .793  6- 5 1.200  1788 .570
 23 West Virginia       1976  .787  9- 2 4.500 439.1 .615
 24 Rutgers             1816  .781  9- 2 4.500 403.6 .608
 25 Kentucky            1688  .775  6- 5 1.200  1406 .562
 26 Oklahoma            1638  .773 11- 2 5.500 297.7 .599
 27 Wake Forest         1539  .768 10- 2 5.000 307.8 .576
 28 Virginia Tech       1456  .764  9- 2 4.500 323.5 .599
 29 Washington          1152  .744  5- 7 .7143  1613 .520
 30 Georgia Tech        854.2 .719  8- 4 2.000 427.1 .561
 31 Boston College      795.9 .712  8- 3 2.667 298.5 .583
 32 Hawai`i             727.4 .704  9- 3 3.000 242.5 .532
 33 Brigham Young       669.8 .697 10- 2 5.000 134.0 .566
 34 Texas               666.0 .696  8- 3 2.667 249.8 .602
 35 Clemson             630.8 .691  8- 4 2.000 315.4 .542
 36 Cincinnati          572.2 .682  6- 5 1.200 476.8 .575
 37 Alabama             538.5 .676  6- 6 1.000 538.5 .498
 38 Maryland            486.3 .666  7- 4 1.750 277.9 .557
 39 Minnesota           421.8 .652  5- 6 .8333 506.2 .545
 40 Purdue              376.4 .640  7- 5 1.400 268.9 .524
 41 South Florida       375.5 .640  7- 4 1.750 214.6 .526
 42 Texas A&M           366.8 .638  8- 3 2.667 137.6 .569
 43 Nebraska            355.9 .634  8- 4 2.000 178.0 .571
 44 Navy                258.7 .601  8- 3 2.667 97.00 .494
 45 TCU                 225.6 .586  9- 2 4.500 50.14 .538
 46 Missouri            198.6 .571  7- 4 1.750 113.5 .551
 47 Vanderbilt          160.7 .547  3- 8 .3750 428.4 .467
 48 Indiana             153.8 .542  5- 6 .8333 184.5 .525
 49 Iowa                138.8 .530  5- 6 .8333 166.6 .514
 50 Houston             138.1 .530  9- 3 3.000 46.02 .541
 51 Florida St          137.9 .530  6- 6 1.000 137.9 .528
 52 Mississippi         136.7 .529  3- 8 .3750 364.6 .469
 53 San José St         123.2 .516  7- 4 1.750 70.41 .476
 54 Pittsburgh          123.0 .516  5- 6 .8333 147.5 .503
 55 Texas Tech          119.7 .513  6- 5 1.200 99.76 .529
 56 Nevada              116.1 .509  8- 4 2.000 58.07 .485
 57 Miami FL            114.3 .507  5- 6 .8333 137.2 .496
 58 Central Michigan    108.0 .501  9- 4 2.250 48.01 .529
 59 Tulsa               103.8 .496  7- 4 1.750 59.30 .533
 60 Stanford            97.58 .489  1-11 .0909  1073 .450
 61 Kansas St           92.27 .482  6- 5 1.200 76.89 .507
 62 Connecticut         89.49 .478  3- 8 .3750 238.6 .497
 63 Oklahoma St         86.93 .475  5- 6 .8333 104.3 .529
 64 Rice                86.28 .474  7- 5 1.400 61.63 .510
 65 Southern Miss       84.97 .472  7- 5 1.400 60.70 .523
 66 Syracuse            71.91 .452  4- 8 .5000 143.8 .480
 67 Utah                68.11 .445  6- 5 1.200 56.76 .502
 68 East Carolina       65.24 .440  7- 5 1.400 46.60 .491
 69 Northwestern        56.87 .423  4- 7 .5714 99.53 .478
 70 Michigan St         56.66 .423  4- 8 .5000 113.3 .466
 71 Western Michigan    54.26 .417  8- 4 2.000 27.13 .489
 72 Mississippi St      51.53 .411  2- 9 .2222 231.9 .454
 73 Virginia            50.02 .407  5- 7 .7143 70.03 .462
 74 Ohio U.             48.90 .405  8- 4 2.000 24.45 .499
 75 Kansas              46.74 .399  5- 6 .8333 56.08 .463
 76 Wyoming             40.70 .382  6- 6 1.000 40.70 .475
 77 Middle Tennessee St 40.39 .381  6- 5 1.200 33.66 .494
 78 New Mexico          40.01 .380  6- 5 1.200 33.34 .478
 79 Baylor              34.62 .363  3- 8 .3750 92.31 .459
 80 SMU                 24.53 .322  5- 6 .8333 29.44 .461
 81 Northern Illinois   23.84 .319  6- 5 1.200 19.87 .471
 82 Tulane              22.76 .313  4- 8 .5000 45.52 .453
 83 Troy                21.66 .308  6- 5 1.200 18.05 .451
 84 Air Force           21.41 .306  4- 8 .5000 42.82 .461
 85 Iowa St             19.28 .295  3- 8 .3750 51.42 .435
 86 Marshall            17.84 .286  4- 7 .5714 31.23 .435
 87 Ball St             17.37 .283  5- 6 .8333 20.85 .461
 88 North Carolina St   17.04 .281  2- 9 .2222 76.69 .442
 89 North Carolina      16.89 .280  2- 9 .2222 76.02 .449
 90 UTEP                16.49 .277  5- 7 .7143 23.09 .425
 91 Colorado            15.47 .270  2- 9 .2222 69.59 .415
 92 Central Florida     14.67 .264  3- 8 .3750 39.13 .431
 93 Illinois            13.95 .259  1-10 .1000 139.5 .435
 94 Fresno St           13.62 .256  4- 8 .5000 27.24 .438
 95 San Diego St        13.09 .252  3- 8 .3750 34.90 .441
 96 Arkansas St         11.61 .240  6- 6 1.000 11.61 .419
 97 Louisiana-Lafayette 10.38 .228  5- 6 .8333 12.45 .441
 98 Colorado St         10.15 .226  3- 8 .3750 27.05 .406
 99 Alabama-Birmingham  9.757 .222  3- 9 .3333 29.27 .398
100 Akron               9.259 .217  5- 7 .7143 12.96 .427
101 Florida Atlantic    8.982 .214  4- 7 .5714 15.72 .413
102 Army                8.802 .212  2- 9 .2222 39.61 .417
103 Toledo              8.671 .210  4- 7 .5714 15.17 .413
104 Idaho               8.275 .206  3- 8 .3750 22.07 .419
105 Kent St             8.141 .204  6- 6 1.000 8.141 .411
106 Louisiana-Monroe    4.818 .158  3- 8 .3750 12.85 .390
107 UNLV                3.399 .131  1-10 .1000 33.99 .384
108 New Mexico St       3.141 .126  2- 8 .2500 12.56 .391
109 Memphis             2.808 .118  1-10 .1000 28.08 .365
110 North Texas         2.632 .114  3- 9 .3333 7.895 .371
111 Miami OH            2.605 .113  2-10 .2000 13.02 .372
112 Louisiana Tech      2.461 .109  2-10 .2000 12.30 .403
113 Bowling Green       2.296 .105  4- 8 .5000 4.593 .395
114 Buffalo             1.801 .091  2-10 .2000 9.005 .405
115 Utah St             1.420 .079  1-11 .0909 15.62 .396
116 Eastern Michigan    1.345 .076  1-11 .0909 14.79 .364
117 Temple              1.255 .073  1-11 .0909 13.81 .395

I have some ideas for a Bayesian approach where results modify a prior reflecting ignorance about the strengths of the teams; these may get tested depending on how my vacation goes.

Wow. Guess JTW didn't have a lot of last-minute shopping to do.

Thanks for this analysis, though: it gives those of us who think it should be OSU-Michigan in the title game another reason to consider ourselves right.

I also like the "Hawai'i"

Neat. Thanks, John.

And it's also another reason for those of us who think it should be Boise against Ohio State to believe WE'RE right.

Yeah Boise State!! It was very nice to see BSU take down Oklahoma, especially after listening to the pundits on espn radio saying that they didn't have a shot to win and their best chance was to lose by 10 points or less.

Some very gutsy calls that paid off big.

Rita
Yeah Boise State!! It was very nice to see BSU take down Oklahoma, especially after listening to the pundits on espn radio not saying that they didn't have a shot to win and their best chance was to lose by 10 points or less. Some very gutsy calls that paid off big.

Cheer for the neutral fan, arms pointing: "Football factory. Potato factory." Score one for the little guy.

What database did you use for the results to all D-1 college football games? Also, how do games against non D-1 schools factor into the calc?

Games against non-D1 schools don't count. Scores from [prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu] and team list from [prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu]

jtwcornell91
I finally got around to doing a Bradley-Terry (aka KRACH) analysis of the Division I-A football silliness. I knew that Ohio State and Boise State, being undefeated, would have "infinite" BT ratings that couldn't be compared to each other, and that Michigan, having only lost to OSU, would have an "infinite" rating that's infinitely worse than OSU and incomparible with BSU. I didn't realize that Wisconsin had only lost to Michigan, and is therefore infinitely worse than OSU and Michigan but incomparible with BSU and infinitely beter than everybody else. This complicates things, since it means Michigan and BSU actually have the same RRWP if we do the usual of assigning a .500 HHWP to BSU with the three teams with whom they're incomparible. The situation is nicely illustrated by the following chart (numbers shown are projected round-robin winning percentages):

"Everybody else" fits on a traditional Bradley-Terry scale:

  # Team                BT    RRWP  W- L   W/L   SOS  RPI
  5 Florida             79836 .948 11- 1 11.00  7258 .680
  6 LSU                 33011 .928 10- 2 5.000  6602 .623

Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?

Michigan and Wisconsin can be placed in the body of the chart now, right?

Trotsky
Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?

[prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu]

184 out of 706. Poor Principia...

so now does florida come out on top?

Dpperk29
so now does florida come out on top?

Boise State all the way!

Jacob '06

Dpperk29
so now does florida come out on top?

Boise State all the way!

Right, because Boise State is the only undefeated team.

Scersk '97

Trotsky
Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?

[prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu]

184 out of 706. Poor Principia...

Interesting. Several D-II conferences rank above I-AA. The Ivies are the 16th-strongest conference, so I guess when we hit about 75 bowl game (in, say, 2012), Ivies will start to get bids.

Scersk '97

Trotsky
Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?

[prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu]

184 out of 706. Poor Principia...

They claim they use Bradley-Terry yet undefeated Boise State is 7th. Explanation?

DeltaOne81

Scersk '97

Trotsky
Screw these teams, where does Cornell finish? There are some IA-IAA match-ups. Doesn't that broaden the set of teams enough to allow us to determine whether Cornell is, say, 307th or 319th?

[prwolfe.bol.ucla.edu]

184 out of 706. Poor Principia...

They claim they use Bradley-Terry yet undefeated Boise State is 7th. Explanation?

One way to get around the infinite rating issue is to add a fictitious team to the rankings who has played and tied all teams. This gives everyone a non-zero and non-perfect winning percentage. I can easily imagine Boise State's SoS factors driving them to 7th if this were done.

I never managed to write it all up, but if you look at things from a Bayesian point of view, the usual Bradley-Terry (complete with undefined ML estimates) arises from the choice of a Jeffreys prior on each team's rating (uniform in the logarithm). If you use a prior which is instead uniform in the HHWP of each team vs the "fictitious team" with a rating of 100, the MLE automatically exists, and looks like the thing Ken used to do, only you get two games against the fictitious team: one win and one loss. The pre-bowl rankings look like this (the first column is the rating, the second is the common log of the rating divided by 100, the next two--identical because of an internal check I never got around to putting out--are the one-sigma errorbar on that logarithm, holding all the other ratings fixed at their maximum-likelihood values, and the last one is the one-sigma errorbar after marginalizing over all the other ratings):

Ohio State     2450 3.199 .8043 .8043 .8615
Michigan       1510 2.715 .6218 .6218 .6973
Florida        1506 2.712 .5775 .5775 .6483
Boise St       1125 2.420 .7939 .7939 .8362
Louisville    912.2 2.211 .5798 .5798 .6324
Southern Cal  879.6 2.174 .4893 .4893 .5527
LSU           785.6 2.061 .5329 .5329 .6030
Wisconsin     726.7 1.983 .6377 .6377 .7000
Auburn        712.7 1.964 .5374 .5374 .6045
Notre Dame    682.7 1.921 .5359 .5359 .5834
Arkansas      572.1 1.744 .5086 .5086 .5812
Tennessee     530.2 1.668 .4882 .4882 .5552
West Virginia 518.2 1.645 .5219 .5219 .5798
Rutgers       501.6 1.613 .5257 .5257 .5858
Oklahoma      494.2 1.598 .4894 .4894 .5406
California    469.5 1.547 .4638 .4638 .5330
Wake Forest   452.7 1.510 .5075 .5075 .5643
Virginia Tech 442.1 1.486 .5124 .5124 .5665
Oregon St     371.4 1.312 .4458 .4458 .5217
Texas         349.3 1.251 .4999 .4999 .5542
Brigham Young 332.5 1.202 .5094 .5094 .5574
Boston College 315.1 1.148 .4811 .4811 .5373
Penn State    278.3 1.023 .5283 .5283 .5915
UCLA          260.8 .9587 .4259 .4259 .4945
Texas A&M     255.5 .9380 .4804 .4804 .5367
Georgia       247.9 .9079 .4895 .4895 .5474
Georgia Tech  247.0 .9041 .4584 .4584 .5135
TCU           241.2 .8805 .5174 .5174 .5694
Nebraska      236.6 .8612 .4573 .4573 .5127
Hawai`i       225.1 .8112 .5056 .5056 .5582
South Carolina 219.6 .7868 .4680 .4680 .5280
Oregon        218.3 .7807 .4469 .4469 .5193
Clemson       216.4 .7718 .4618 .4618 .5182
Maryland      215.1 .7658 .4616 .4616 .5190
Kentucky      211.8 .7503 .4818 .4818 .5385
Cincinnati    208.1 .7327 .4867 .4867 .5447
Arizona St    192.4 .6545 .4463 .4463 .5176
Houston       191.0 .6472 .4498 .4498 .5033
Arizona       187.6 .6294 .4434 .4434 .5138
South Florida 186.1 .6209 .4876 .4876 .5435
Missouri      176.9 .5705 .4465 .4465 .4970
Navy          176.8 .5697 .5225 .5225 .5599
Washington St 169.5 .5279 .4388 .4388 .5069
Central Michigan 162.5 .4858 .4664 .4664 .5179
Purdue        155.9 .4438 .4439 .4439 .5065
Tulsa         140.2 .3377 .4530 .4530 .5041
Minnesota     139.0 .3293 .4870 .4870 .5451
Washington    129.1 .2556 .4344 .4344 .5032
Texas Tech    128.9 .2537 .4489 .4489 .5005
Southern Miss 125.6 .2275 .4545 .4545 .5110
Florida St    121.9 .1983 .4403 .4403 .4910
Alabama       120.8 .1889 .5084 .5084 .5614
Nevada        118.0 .1654 .4805 .4805 .5370
Rice          116.8 .1553 .4275 .4275 .4754
Ohio U.       115.3 .1422 .4639 .4639 .5159
Kansas St     114.2 .1328 .4541 .4541 .5059
Indiana       113.9 .1300 .4679 .4679 .5254
Western Michigan 111.7 .1110 .4390 .4390 .4927
Iowa          107.2 .0697 .4712 .4712 .5275
San José St   105.0 .0484 .4876 .4876 .5476
Oklahoma St   104.1 .0401 .4404 .4404 .4948
East Carolina 102.2 .0220 .4320 .4320 .4838
Utah          99.99 -  0   .4794 .4794 .5392
Pittsburgh    99.14 -  0   .4569 .4569 .5085
Miami FL      93.33 -.0691 .4901 .4901 .5414
Middle Tennessee St 91.71 -.0866 .4857 .4857 .5371
New Mexico    80.18 -.2208 .4527 .4527 .5122
Northern Illinois 73.70 -.3052 .4772 .4772 .5357
Wyoming       73.32 -.3104 .4452 .4452 .5032
Kansas        71.34 -.3377 .4417 .4417 .4939
Troy          66.56 -.4071 .4579 .4579 .5117
Connecticut   66.52 -.4077 .4857 .4857 .5356
Virginia      66.21 -.4124 .4320 .4320 .4830
Syracuse      65.57 -.4221 .4647 .4647 .5148
Northwestern  62.58 -.4687 .5104 .5104 .5648
SMU           58.92 -.5290 .4329 .4329 .4859
Mississippi   58.33 -.5391 .5105 .5105 .5627
Michigan St   57.47 -.5539 .4799 .4799 .5349
Ball St       57.15 -.5595 .4661 .4661 .5254
Vanderbilt    54.21 -.6122 .5487 .5487 .6010
Baylor        48.82 -.7170 .4782 .4782 .5278
Louisiana-Lafayette 47.25 -.7497 .4802 .4802 .5375
Air Force     47.22 -.7504 .4628 .4628 .5224
Tulane        47.08 -.7533 .4431 .4431 .4974
Arkansas St   46.81 -.7591 .4394 .4394 .4975
Marshall      44.49 -.8100 .4602 .4602 .5156
UTEP          43.99 -.8211 .4250 .4250 .4777
Kent St       42.68 -.8514 .4389 .4389 .5013
Akron         41.25 -.8854 .4391 .4391 .4954
Mississippi St 40.49 -.9041 .5366 .5366 .5844
Iowa St       38.95 -.9429 .4872 .4872 .5347
Fresno St     38.85 -.9455 .4789 .4789 .5454
Florida Atlantic 36.38 -1.011 .4675 .4675 .5267
Central Florida 35.16 -1.045 .4831 .4831 .5366
Toledo        35.01 -1.050 .4432 .4432 .4996
San Diego St  34.05 -1.077 .4804 .4804 .5419
North Carolina St 33.19 -1.103 .5116 .5116 .5584
North Carolina 32.55 -1.122 .5615 .5615 .6131
Stanford      32.44 -1.126 .5845 .5845 .6324
Idaho         29.48 -1.221 .5049 .5049 .5727
Colorado      29.41 -1.224 .5117 .5117 .5590
Colorado St   28.36 -1.260 .4708 .4708 .5334
Alabama-Birmingham 26.71 -1.320 .4609 .4609 .5158
Army          25.71 -1.358 .5033 .5033 .5414
Louisiana-Monroe 24.80 -1.394 .4945 .4945 .5537
Illinois      23.17 -1.462 .5895 .5895 .6387
Bowling Green 21.29 -1.547 .4799 .4799 .5505
New Mexico St 18.11 -1.709 .5346 .5346 .6047
North Texas   17.72 -1.730 .4744 .4744 .5316
Miami OH      16.24 -1.818 .4960 .4960 .5558
Louisiana Tech 16.20 -1.820 .5306 .5306 .5979
Buffalo       15.85 -1.842 .5203 .5203 .5889
UNLV          13.55 -1.999 .5799 .5799 .6345
Memphis       12.52 -2.078 .5771 .5771 .6250
Temple        12.31 -2.095 .5938 .5938 .6462
Utah St       11.07 -2.200 .5954 .5954 .6640
Eastern Michigan 10.54 -2.250 .5672 .5672 .6153
Duke          8.795 -2.431 .7844 .7844 .8234
Florida Int'l 3.891 -3.246 .7636 .7636 .8061

Note (for those of you who got this far) that that errorbar is not actually what you really want; what's interesting is the distribution of the ratio of two teams' ratings, marginalizing ober all the others'.

And here's "everybody else":

  # Team                BT    RRWP  W- L   W/L   SOS  RPI
  2 Florida            106464 .975 12- 1 12.00  8872 .698
  3 Ohio State          63212 .965 12- 1 12.00  5268 .642
  4 LSU                 29549 .945 11- 2 5.500  5372 .633
  5 Michigan            24880 .940 11- 2 5.500  4524 .651
  6 Wisconsin           24871 .939 11- 1 11.00  2261 .597
  7 Auburn              22963 .937 11- 2 5.500  4175 .620
  8 Southern Cal        16721 .925 11- 2 5.500  3040 .654
  9 Arkansas            12523 .914  9- 4 2.250  5566 .597
 10 Louisville          8539  .896 12- 1 12.00 711.6 .652
 11 Notre Dame          6750  .884 10- 3 3.333  2025 .595
 12 Tennessee           6615  .883  9- 4 2.250  2940 .597
 13 California          4221  .858  9- 3 3.000  1407 .603
 14 Penn State          4095  .856  8- 4 2.000  2047 .573
 15 Oregon St           3118  .838  9- 4 2.250  1386 .596
 16 West Virginia       2999  .836 10- 2 5.000 599.8 .627
 17 Georgia             2840  .832  8- 4 2.000  1420 .568
 18 Rutgers             2301  .817 10- 2 5.000 460.3 .611
 19 South Carolina      2012  .807  7- 5 1.400  1437 .581
 20 Kentucky            1989  .806  7- 5 1.400  1421 .578
 21 Wake Forest         1477  .783 10- 3 3.333 443.1 .573
 22 Oklahoma            1277  .771 11- 3 3.667 348.3 .593
 23 Virginia Tech       1250  .769  9- 3 3.000 416.8 .584
 24 Arizona             1156  .762  5- 6 .8333  1387 .550
 25 Brigham Young       1049  .754 11- 2 5.500 190.8 .572
 26 Boston College      1043  .753  9- 3 3.000 347.6 .591
 27 UCLA                1027  .752  7- 6 1.167 879.9 .552
 28 Oregon              968.7 .747  6- 6 1.000 968.7 .544
 29 Washington St       923.9 .743  6- 6 1.000 923.9 .521
 30 Georgia Tech        771.7 .726  8- 5 1.600 482.3 .555
 31 Texas               759.6 .725  9- 3 3.000 253.2 .591
 32 Arizona St          742.1 .723  6- 6 1.000 742.1 .525
 33 Hawai`i             721.2 .720 10- 3 3.333 216.4 .539
 34 Cincinnati          670.7 .713  7- 5 1.400 479.1 .582
 35 Maryland            666.0 .712  8- 4 2.000 333.0 .563
 36 Clemson             610.2 .704  8- 5 1.600 381.4 .530
 37 Washington          506.1 .686  5- 7 .7143 708.5 .515
 38 South Florida       461.2 .676  8- 4 2.000 230.6 .541
 39 Texas A&M           392.2 .660  8- 4 2.000 196.1 .558
 40 Nebraska            386.3 .658  8- 5 1.600 241.4 .563
 41 TCU                 299.9 .631 10- 2 5.000 59.98 .547
 42 Florida St          255.5 .614  7- 6 1.167 219.0 .538
 43 Alabama             196.6 .584  6- 7 .8571 229.3 .486
 44 Purdue              194.4 .583  7- 6 1.167 166.6 .513
 45 Missouri            193.9 .583  7- 5 1.400 138.5 .532
 46 Navy                178.8 .573  8- 4 2.000 89.40 .486
 47 Texas Tech          176.0 .572  7- 5 1.400 125.7 .531
 48 Miami FL            171.4 .568  6- 6 1.000 171.4 .508
 49 Minnesota           152.8 .555  5- 7 .7143 213.9 .524
 50 Houston             136.3 .542  9- 4 2.250 60.56 .531
 51 Oklahoma St         135.1 .541  6- 6 1.000 135.1 .527
 52 Central Michigan    122.7 .529 10- 4 2.500 49.09 .531
 53 Pittsburgh          120.9 .527  5- 6 .8333 145.0 .508
 54 San José St         107.9 .513  8- 4 2.000 53.93 .489
 55 Kansas St           102.1 .507  6- 6 1.000 102.1 .506
 56 Vanderbilt          101.7 .506  3- 8 .3750 271.2 .463
 57 Utah                100.9 .505  7- 5 1.400 72.08 .516
 58 Indiana             98.13 .502  5- 6 .8333 117.8 .508
 59 Mississippi         97.73 .501  3- 8 .3750 260.6 .465
 60 Southern Miss       90.32 .492  8- 5 1.600 56.45 .524
 61 Iowa                83.43 .482  5- 7 .7143 116.8 .500
 62 Connecticut         80.98 .478  3- 8 .3750 215.9 .498
 63 Tulsa               73.07 .466  7- 5 1.400 52.19 .513
 64 Nevada              68.07 .457  8- 5 1.600 42.55 .476
 65 Syracuse            66.02 .453  4- 8 .5000 132.0 .482
 66 Rice                58.73 .438  7- 6 1.167 50.34 .491
 67 Stanford            55.85 .432  1-11 .0909 614.4 .444
 68 East Carolina       55.21 .431  7- 6 1.167 47.32 .481
 69 Virginia            55.00 .430  5- 7 .7143 77.00 .458
 70 Kansas              52.46 .424  5- 6 .8333 62.95 .455
 71 Western Michigan    48.68 .415  8- 5 1.600 30.42 .481
 72 Wyoming             44.02 .403  6- 6 1.000 44.02 .477
 73 Baylor              40.22 .391  3- 8 .3750 107.3 .456
 74 Middle Tennessee St 40.06 .391  6- 6 1.000 40.06 .495
 75 Mississippi St      39.54 .389  2- 9 .2222 178.0 .458
 76 New Mexico          37.35 .382  6- 6 1.000 37.35 .474
 77 Troy                37.19 .382  7- 5 1.400 26.57 .465
 78 Michigan St         37.02 .381  4- 8 .5000 74.03 .453
 79 Northwestern        35.68 .377  4- 7 .5714 62.45 .466
 80 Ohio U.             35.66 .377  8- 5 1.600 22.29 .486
 81 SMU                 22.66 .322  5- 6 .8333 27.19 .452
 82 Air Force           22.29 .320  4- 8 .5000 44.58 .455
 83 Tulane              20.01 .307  4- 8 .5000 40.02 .448
 84 Iowa St             19.47 .304  3- 8 .3750 51.91 .425
 85 Northern Illinois   19.16 .302  6- 6 1.000 19.16 .465
 86 North Carolina      18.93 .301  2- 9 .2222 85.20 .440
 87 North Carolina St   18.01 .295  2- 9 .2222 81.06 .438
 88 Marshall            16.72 .287  4- 7 .5714 29.26 .430
 89 Colorado            16.59 .286  2- 9 .2222 74.67 .407
 90 UTEP                15.16 .276  5- 7 .7143 21.22 .417
 91 Ball St             14.68 .272  5- 6 .8333 17.61 .450
 92 San Diego St        13.48 .263  3- 8 .3750 35.96 .445
 93 Central Florida     13.43 .262  3- 8 .3750 35.81 .429
 94 Arkansas St         13.12 .260  6- 6 1.000 13.12 .420
 95 Louisiana-Lafayette 12.03 .250  5- 6 .8333 14.44 .437
 96 Fresno St           11.41 .245  4- 8 .5000 22.81 .438
 97 Florida Atlantic    10.73 .238  4- 7 .5714 18.78 .413
 98 Colorado St         10.13 .232  3- 8 .3750 27.01 .405
 99 Illinois            9.561 .227  1-10 .1000 95.61 .426
100 Alabama-Birmingham  9.353 .224  3- 9 .3333 28.06 .396
101 Army                8.460 .214  2- 9 .2222 38.07 .407
102 Akron               8.449 .214  5- 7 .7143 11.83 .426
103 Toledo              7.880 .207  4- 7 .5714 13.79 .408
104 Kent St             7.023 .197  6- 6 1.000 7.023 .402
105 Idaho               6.684 .192  3- 8 .3750 17.82 .421
106 Louisiana-Monroe    5.564 .176  3- 8 .3750 14.84 .389
107 UNLV                3.449 .137  1-10 .1000 34.49 .384
108 North Texas         2.793 .122  3- 9 .3333 8.380 .369
109 New Mexico St       2.691 .120  2- 8 .2500 10.76 .390
110 Memphis             2.667 .119  1-10 .1000 26.67 .356
111 Miami OH            2.206 .107  2-10 .2000 11.03 .365
112 Louisiana Tech      2.181 .106  2-10 .2000 10.90 .398
113 Bowling Green       1.993 .101  4- 8 .5000 3.987 .389
114 Buffalo             1.546 .087  2-10 .2000 7.729 .403
115 Utah St             1.233 .076  1-11 .0909 13.56 .398
116 Eastern Michigan    1.177 .074  1-11 .0909 12.94 .354
117 Temple              1.071 .070  1-11 .0909 11.79 .387

And with the regularizing prior:

Florida        2253 3.115 .5771 .5771 .6380
Boise St       1610 2.779 .7847 .7847 .8221
Ohio State     1467 2.685 .6223 .6223 .6717
Louisville     1245 2.522 .5744 .5744 .6249
Southern Cal   1050 2.351 .4880 .4880 .5428
LSU            1033 2.335 .5272 .5272 .5856
Michigan      995.0 2.298 .5244 .5244 .5828
Auburn        903.9 2.202 .5352 .5352 .5910
Wisconsin     874.4 2.168 .6136 .6136 .6643
West Virginia 669.4 1.901 .5169 .5169 .5716
Rutgers       595.0 1.783 .5265 .5265 .5806
Notre Dame    534.5 1.676 .4886 .4886 .5333
Arkansas      533.8 1.675 .4854 .4854 .5461
California    508.5 1.626 .4564 .4564 .5141
Tennessee     467.0 1.541 .4578 .4578 .5137
Oklahoma      438.2 1.477 .4601 .4601 .5085
Oregon St     418.3 1.431 .4411 .4411 .5049
Wake Forest   412.7 1.417 .4726 .4726 .5241
Brigham Young 404.7 1.398 .5017 .5017 .5469
Boston College 372.6 1.315 .4631 .4631 .5123
Virginia Tech 360.0 1.281 .4627 .4627 .5122
Texas         359.1 1.278 .4785 .4785 .5253
Georgia       340.7 1.226 .4762 .4762 .5288
Penn State    329.4 1.192 .4972 .4972 .5500
Kentucky      285.3 1.048 .4669 .4669 .5183
TCU           281.4 1.035 .5115 .5115 .5565
South Carolina 274.4 1.010 .4520 .4520 .5048
Hawai`i       271.4 .9985 .4970 .4970 .5445
Maryland      258.4 .9493 .4457 .4457 .4959
Cincinnati    246.7 .9029 .4671 .4671 .5199
Georgia Tech  230.6 .8356 .4328 .4328 .4839
South Florida 229.5 .8307 .4794 .4794 .5309
Texas A&M     224.3 .8079 .4497 .4497 .4989
Nebraska      219.3 .7853 .4392 .4392 .4882
UCLA          210.6 .7450 .4069 .4069 .4647
Clemson       193.9 .6620 .4360 .4360 .4861
Oregon        189.9 .6415 .4305 .4305 .4933
Arizona       188.3 .6330 .4496 .4496 .5129
Central Michigan 179.8 .5868 .4551 .4551 .5002
Washington St 167.5 .5158 .4426 .4426 .5031
Houston       166.4 .5094 .4212 .4212 .4702
Arizona St    163.3 .4904 .4294 .4294 .4918
Florida St    154.7 .4361 .4237 .4237 .4688
Missouri      153.9 .4310 .4250 .4250 .4708
Texas Tech    148.9 .3984 .4303 .4303 .4764
Navy          147.1 .3860 .4874 .4874 .5238
Southern Miss 136.7 .3126 .4367 .4367 .4866
Purdue        132.7 .2832 .4271 .4271 .4789
Washington    127.0 .2387 .4342 .4342 .4960
San José St   125.0 .2233 .4746 .4746 .5285
Utah          124.6 .2196 .4612 .4612 .5136
Oklahoma St   120.0 .1822 .4171 .4171 .4662
Miami FL      117.7 .1626 .4592 .4592 .5045
Tulsa         111.9 .1124 .4280 .4280 .4753
Minnesota     109.8 .0936 .4633 .4633 .5102
Kansas St     108.3 .0802 .4425 .4425 .4899
Pittsburgh    105.5 .0533 .4661 .4661 .5142
Indiana       103.8 .0376 .4642 .4642 .5150
Alabama       102.9 .0282 .4841 .4841 .5302
Nevada        100.5   0   .4502 .4502 .5022
Western Michigan 99.06 -  0   .4212 .4212 .4711
Ohio U.       94.83 -.0530 .4382 .4382 .4864
Rice          93.43 -.0679 .4054 .4054 .4522
Iowa          91.03 -.0939 .4513 .4513 .5005
East Carolina 89.32 -.1130 .4145 .4145 .4639
Middle Tennessee St 85.53 -.1564 .4648 .4648 .5129
Troy          82.49 -.1925 .4386 .4386 .4874
Wyoming       77.11 -.2600 .4501 .4501 .5040
New Mexico    72.55 -.3208 .4336 .4336 .4899
Kansas        71.02 -.3422 .4413 .4413 .4904
Connecticut   68.64 -.3763 .4905 .4905 .5371
Virginia      68.02 -.3854 .4320 .4320 .4793
Syracuse      68.01 -.3855 .4714 .4714 .5182
Northern Illinois 63.96 -.4469 .4587 .4587 .5114
Mississippi   59.99 -.5110 .5151 .5151 .5623
Northwestern  58.38 -.5382 .5092 .5092 .5574
Vanderbilt    56.10 -.5781 .5546 .5546 .6010
SMU           56.03 -.5792 .4304 .4304 .4814
Michigan St   54.00 -.6162 .4760 .4760 .5262
Ball St       53.62 -.6233 .4645 .4645 .5198
Baylor        49.42 -.7047 .4793 .4793 .5250
Arkansas St   47.99 -.7343 .4420 .4420 .4976
Air Force     47.70 -.7402 .4627 .4627 .5178
Louisiana-Lafayette 47.64 -.7415 .4795 .4795 .5340
Tulane        45.37 -.7903 .4427 .4427 .4951
Marshall      43.45 -.8335 .4610 .4610 .5145
Mississippi St 42.61 -.8530 .5456 .5456 .5893
UTEP          42.14 -.8643 .4225 .4225 .4739
Akron         40.44 -.9053 .4412 .4412 .4957
Kent St       39.99 -.9166 .4355 .4355 .4962
Fresno St     39.50 -.9288 .4803 .4803 .5434
Iowa St       37.91 -.9699 .4854 .4854 .5309
Florida Atlantic 37.52 -.9803 .4685 .4685 .5243
San Diego St  35.54 -1.034 .4847 .4847 .5430
Central Florida 34.42 -1.067 .4839 .4839 .5360
Toledo        33.86 -1.083 .4442 .4442 .4985
North Carolina St 33.81 -1.085 .5129 .5129 .5565
North Carolina 33.23 -1.102 .5601 .5601 .6078
Stanford      31.42 -1.158 .5827 .5827 .6258
Idaho         29.94 -1.206 .5068 .5068 .5712
Colorado      29.22 -1.230 .5112 .5112 .5564
Colorado St   28.91 -1.241 .4720 .4720 .5313
Alabama-Birmingham 26.57 -1.325 .4617 .4617 .5155
Louisiana-Monroe 25.31 -1.374 .4950 .4950 .5517
Army          24.86 -1.392 .5014 .5014 .5388
Illinois      21.92 -1.518 .5890 .5890 .6342
Bowling Green 20.48 -1.586 .4796 .4796 .5483
New Mexico St 18.20 -1.703 .5346 .5346 .6027
North Texas   17.80 -1.726 .4735 .4735 .5288
Louisiana Tech 16.31 -1.813 .5298 .5298 .5945
Miami OH      15.39 -1.871 .4949 .4949 .5528
Buffalo       15.18 -1.885 .5211 .5211 .5879
UNLV          13.83 -1.978 .5813 .5813 .6331
Memphis       12.17 -2.106 .5756 .5756 .6219
Temple        11.71 -2.145 .5927 .5927 .6433
Utah St       11.44 -2.168 .5983 .5983 .6648
Eastern Michigan 9.941 -2.309 .5658 .5658 .6120
Duke          8.956 -2.413 .7843 .7843 .8208
Florida Int'l 3.979 -3.224 .7652 .7652 .8070