Cornell 16th in PWR after Fri night

A few more wins, maybe a trip to the ECAC Final, even with an unlucky loss and they still might have a shot at an at large bid.

I wish, but it's not likely.

If you look at the teams ahead of them, they have to catch Mighican State, Providence, St. Cloud, and Colgate. The best we're going to do on TUC wins (assuming we don't win the ECAC tourney) is 5-8-2 and that won't catch MSU or Colgate. The only way we catch Colgate is to get another head-to-head win, and that only happens if we win the tournament. Plus our RPI aint that great, and the other teams can't worsen with the new set up.

Let's just win it all, and not worry about the PWR!

JH

Also not that we're tied for 16th with Providence, who win the individual comparison with us, and also have a higher RPI. So we're really 17th.

And we need to get to 13th. So... close, but no cigar without the whatever-it's-called trophy. Whitelaw?

Not that it reall changes anything but I think we could win the comparison with St. Cloud.
From USCHO currently
St. Cloud State vs Cornell
.5405 1 RPI 0 .5244
7-11-2 .4000 1 TUC 0 .3846 4-7-2
3-2-0 .6000 0 COp 1 .8333 5-1-0
0-0-0 0 H2H 0 0-0-0
2 TOT 1

If St. Cloud loses to Minnesota this afternoon their TUC record falls to 7-12-2 or .3810 which flips the entire comparison. Not much we can hope for in the others.

Problem with Cornell playing in the ECAC is we have the easiest schedule year in, year out because Cornell doesn't don't have to play Cornell. The ECAC as a group did not do a lot against non-ECAC teams.

Colgate could get an at large big losing to Cornell in the ECAC finals better, I think, than Cornell could losing to Colgate in the finals. I still think Cornell has the ability to march all the way through the ECACs unbeaten. Cornell *can* beat every ECAC team. It just hasn't done it. You never know if this is a one, two, or three goal night for the Big Red on offense.

If there's an ECAC at large team, it probably gets shipped off to the middle of nowhere to play North Dakota in the first round. The seeding committee has a lot of discretionary authority to place teams as it sees fit for the good of the game, once it satisfies all its other rules. Or in order to satisfy its other rules.

Cornell should become host of the East regionals. (You don't have to have your college in Albany. You just have to be the declared host.) One of the inviolate rules is the host team, if it qualifies, stays in its own region. Michigan makes out like a bandit half the years by being host to the regionals held in Grand Rapids.

Problem with Cornell playing in the ECAC is we have the easiest schedule year in, year out because Cornell doesn't don't have to play Cornell. The ECAC as a group did not do a lot against non-ECAC teams.

Colgate could get an at large big losing to Cornell in the ECAC finals better, I think, than Cornell could losing to Colgate in the finals. I still think Cornell has the ability to march all the way through the ECACs unbeaten. Cornell *can* beat every ECAC team. It just hasn't done it. You never know if this is a one, two, or three goal night for the Big Red on offense.

If there's an ECAC at large team, it probably gets shipped off to the middle of nowhere to play North Dakota in the first round. The seeding committee has a lot of discretionary authority to place teams as it sees fit for the good of the game, once it satisfies all its other rules. Or in order to satisfy its other rules.

Cornell should become host of the East regionals. (You don't have to have your college in Albany. You just have to be the declared host.) One of the inviolate rules is the host team, if it qualifies, stays in its own region. Michigan makes out like a bandit half the years by being host to the regionals held in Grand Rapids.

Problem with Cornell playing in the ECAC is we have the easiest schedule year in, year out because Cornell doesn't don't have to play Cornell. The ECAC as a group did not do a lot against non-ECAC teams.

Colgate could get an at large big losing to Cornell in the ECAC finals better, I think, than Cornell could losing to Colgate in the finals. I still think Cornell has the ability to march all the way through the ECACs unbeaten. Cornell *can* beat every ECAC team. It just hasn't done it. You never know if this is a one, two, or three goal night for the Big Red on offense.

If there's an ECAC at large team, it probably gets shipped off to the middle of nowhere to play North Dakota in the first round. The seeding committee has a lot of discretionary authority to place teams as it sees fit for the good of the game, once it satisfies all its other rules. Or in order to satisfy its other rules.

Cornell should become host of the East regionals. (You don't have to have your college in Albany. You just have to be the declared host.) One of the inviolate rules is the host team, if it qualifies, stays in its own region. Michigan makes out like a bandit half the years by being host to the regionals held in Grand Rapids.

[Q]billhoward Wrote:

Cornell should become host of the East regionals. (You don't have to have your college in Albany. You just have to be the declared host.) One of the inviolate rules is the host team, if it qualifies, stays in its own region. Michigan makes out like a bandit half the years by being host to the regionals held in Grand Rapids. [/Q]

Western Michigan is the host when the regionals are in Grand Rapids. Michigan has hosted a lot of regional in Ann Arbor, which is an even bigger advantage because it's on campus.

It's too bad the War Memorial is such a dump, or Cornell could host the regionals in Syracuse. At the intersection of two interstates and with a decent-sized airport. Not to mention Dinosaur Bar-B-Que.

[Q]billhoward Wrote:
If there's an ECAC at large team, it probably gets shipped off to the middle of nowhere to play North Dakota in the first round. The seeding committee has a lot of discretionary authority to place teams as it sees fit for the good of the game, once it satisfies all its other rules. Or in order to satisfy its other rules.
[/Q]

Well, before considering intraconference matchups in the first round, the top two seeds should be playing the CHA and Atlantic Hockey autobids. If North Dakota stays number one in the Pairwise and BC and Maine stay two and three, then the number fourteen team would in all likelihood be sent to Albany to play Maine in the first round.

[Q]nyc94 Wrote:
Well, before considering intraconference matchups in the first round, the top two seeds should be playing the CHA and Atlantic Hockey autobids.
[/Q]
Except that's not how it works. As we saw graphically last season, avoiding first round matchups and keeping the teams in their "bands" are priorities which trump the overall seeding. We "should" have played Wayne State but got Mankato instead because there were two 1-seeds and two 4-seeds from the WCHA, so they couldn't be matched up in the first round.

[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote:

nyc94 Wrote:
Well, before considering intraconference matchups in the first round, the top two seeds should be playing the CHA and Atlantic Hockey autobids.

Except that's not how it works. As we saw graphically last season, avoiding first round matchups and keeping the teams in their "bands" are priorities which trump the overall seeding. We "should" have played Wayne State but got Mankato instead because there were two 1-seeds and two 4-seeds from the WCHA, so they couldn't be matched up in the first round.

[/Q]

That is why the first line of my post was "before considering intraconference matchups in the first round". In fact, that was the only part of my post you quoted! I further qualified it by saying "should".

Interesting concept for Cornell to "host" a regional. Obiviously Lynah is too small for such an event, however USCHO notes that Rochester is hosting a regional in 2007

East Regional: Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, N.Y. (March 23-24, 2007)

That would be a lot closer to Ithaca than Albany. Does anyone know who the host is for this regional?

[Q]finchphil Wrote:

Interesting concept for Cornell to "host" a regional. Obiviously Lynah is too small for such an event, however USCHO notes that Rochester is hosting a regional in 2007

East Regional: Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, N.Y. (March 23-24, 2007)

That would be a lot closer to Ithaca than Albany. Does anyone know who the host is for this regional?


Edited 1 times. Last edit at 03/06/2004 4:58pm. [/Q]

Niagara or Cansius maybe?

[Q]nyc94 Wrote:

If St. Cloud loses to Minnesota this afternoon their TUC record falls to 7-12-2 or .3810 which flips the entire comparison. Not much we can hope for in the others. [/Q]

Minnesota 4 - SCSU 2 Final.

Now just wait for the PWR to update...

To host an NCAA regional means the school agrees to be the sponsor and do some of the background donkey-work. It does not mean you get to host it in your home rink. Thus Cornell could as easily be host of a regional in Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo, or Albany as could Canisus or RPI. If as Michigan does you host them every couple years and your team qualifies for the NCAA say every other year, the odds favor your playing at home in front of your fans because one of the first two or three must-do clauses for the seeding committee is to keep the home team home.

Ithaca to Rochester is 95 miles. You wouldn't even have to miss an afternoon class for a Thursday or Friday game.

Cornell moved up one and wins the comparison with SCSU

14 Colgate 13 9 19-10-5 .6324 19 .5217
15 St. Cloud State 11 24 18-14-4 .5556 12 .5375
Cornell 11 11 15-8-6 .6207 17 .5244
17 Providence 10 23 15-11-7 .5606 14 .5326

What happens if Harvard wins a couple of more games and gets their RPI over .500 (currently .493) and thus becomes a TUC. That has to help somehow, but I don't really understand all the details of this system.

But in the end, one more loss will likely kill us. We pretty much have to win out.

[Q]finchphil Wrote:

What happens if Harvard wins a couple of more games and gets their RPI over .500 (currently .493) and thus becomes a TUC. That has to help somehow, but I don't really understand all the details of this system.

But in the end, one more loss will likely kill us. We pretty much have to win out. [/Q]

According to USCHO, BU, with a 9-15-9 record going into tonight's game (and in real danger of being the lone team not to make the HE tournament), will be a TUC after this weekend's pair of games with New Hampshire--win, lose, or draw. If this isn't a flawed criterion, I don't know what is.

Agreed. I can understand how a team that is like 16-15-1 and plays in a strong conference could make the argument that they are better than their record indicates. But the system is flawed if it allows a bad team (like this year's BU team) to continually lose to teams and be given credit for losses just because the teams they are losing to have good records. A combo of .500 RPI and .500 winning percentage, might help this situation.

[Q]finchphil Wrote:

A combo of .500 RPI and .500 winning percentage, might help this situation. [/Q]


Agree. Northeastern is also now a TUC. Either NU or BU ends its season tonight. Only Merrimack from HE is not a TUC.

Unless Harvard makes it to Albany, their RPI will stay below 0.500. If they win tonight, they will still be slightly less than 0.500, which means they need to be above .500 in the next round. The only way to do that is to win that round, probably against Brown. Big task. But it might also knock Brown out of TUC, but it'll be close.

More interesting is Western Mich. They will either play Fairbanks if Northern Mich. doesn't win tonight or Notre Dame if Northern wins. Either way, they're away. If they lose one game, their RPI will be just over 0.500. If they lose two, they're likely below 0.500, and no longer a TUC. That helps us as we drop a loss and tie from our TUC rating.

Hmmm. I'm starting to think this could happen

???

Maybe not.

JH

[Q]jtwcornell91 Wrote:
Except that's not how it works. As we saw graphically last season, avoiding first round matchups and keeping the teams in their "bands" are priorities which trump the overall seeding. We "should" have played Wayne State but got Mankato instead because there were two 1-seeds and two 4-seeds from the WCHA, so they couldn't be matched up in the first round. [/Q]

I understand what you are saying about last year's situation. Adam Wodon wrote an article after the selection show in which he stated that the committee really did appear to bracket the tournament as #1 vs. #16, #2 vs. #15, etc and then made only the changes necessary to avoid intraconference matchups in the first round and keep the host schools at home.
[www.uscho.com]

But "if the season ended today" this wouldn't come into play. St. Cloud's loss today puts them out of the NCAA tournament as defined by the pairwise (unmodified RPI and with the .005-.003-.001 bonus). The number one seeds would be North Dakota, BC, Maine, and Minnesota-Duluth (two Hockey East and two WCHA). The number four seeds would be the CHA, Atlantic Hockey, and ECAC champions as well as either Notre Dame or Michigan State (tied for 12). Since both of those teams are in the CCHA there would be no intraconference matchups between bands one and four. Under these conditions, I really doubt the selection committee would do anything other than bracket #1 against #16, etc. Based on the committee's desire to put the one seeds close to home, BC should be in Manchester and Maine in Albany which means the #14 team should play Maine in Albany. The only other criteria I can think of that might mess this up is the attendance issue and I think the NCAA would not move Colgate or Cornell out of Albany if the bracket as I described here were to hold up. And if the NCAA really wants to maintain the integrity of the bands then the second and third bands should have no impact on first and fourth.

Who is hosting the upcoming regional which is being held in Rochester, NY?

[Q]Petunia Wrote:

Who is hosting the upcoming regional which is being held in Rochester, NY?
[/Q]

From
[www.ncaasports.com]

FUTURE SITES 2007

Regionals (4):

East: Blue Cross Arena 
Rochester, New York 
Eastern College Athletic Conference, host 
March 23-24, 2007 

The ECAC alone is hosting? Does that mean that the ECAC tourney winner (or any other ECAC team, for that matter) automatically go to the Rochester regional?

[Q]Will Wrote:

The ECAC alone is hosting? Does that mean that the ECAC tourney winner (or any other ECAC team, for that matter) automatically go to the Rochester regional?

-------------------------
I'm just...One of the guys... [/Q]

Long way from Centerville.

Harvards win tonight moves them from .493 to .4947. It'll take more than one more win for them to get over .500

If Harvard becomes a TUC and Brown and Western Michigan fall out of the TUC category, all real possibilities, our record against TUCs will improve quite a bit. Cornell has 2 quality wins which will also help our RPI. Unfortunately Notre Dame at 14th has 3 quality wins, and Michigan State took 3 of 4 points against Michigan this weekend to move up to 12th. Both of these teams will have home ice in the 1st round of the CCHA. We may need to pass one or both of those teams to get up to 13th, so our best chance at the NCAA is still to win the ECAC championship. It's nice to know that an at large bid is at least remotely possible as a backup. To everyone who thinks it's impossible I have two questions:
1. Would you have believed Cornell could have moved up to 15th in the PWR this weekend without even playing?
2. Wasn't everyone saying a month ago that Colgate (now 13th not accounting for bonus points) needed to win all their games up to the ECAC final to even have a remote shot at an at large bid?

I think there is like 50-50 chance that cornell finishes in the top 14 PWR if they sweep next weekend, lose in the semis, and win the consolation. But really, just win the ECAC so we can avoid all the number crunching.

I think there is like 50-50 chance that cornell finishes in the top 14 PWR if they sweep next weekend, lose in the semis, and win the consolation. But really, just win the ECAC so we can avoid all the number crunching.

yes, let cornell win the ecacs. i want a repeat of last year, not the year before
there are some teams that may be hovering around 500 pwr/rpi to become or drop below consideration for tuc that may play a big part as was stated. we shall see.

[Q]calgARI '07 wrote:
I think there is like 50-50 chance that cornell finishes in the top 14 PWR if they sweep next weekend, lose in the semis, and win the consolation. But really, just win the ECAC so we can avoid all the number crunching.[/Q]
In the event that Cornell wins the Whitelaw Trophy again, sneaking to #12 in the PWR would make a big difference with NCAA tournament seeding. If Cornell beats Clarkson, numbers will be crunched, especially after JTW sets up his You Be the Committee algorithm.

[Q]cbuckser Wrote:

In the event that Cornell wins the Whitelaw Trophy again, sneaking to #12 in the PWR would make a big difference with NCAA tournament seeding. If Cornell beats Clarkson, numbers will be crunched, especially after JTW sets up his You Be the Committee algorithm. [/Q]

Whoa...now I *know* we're getting ahead of ourselves. Let's not jinx it for the team.

St. Cloud is ahead of us again, presumably because Bemidji State is now a TUC (split with Niagara this weekend) and St. Cloud took two from them in February. Their TUC record is now 9-12-2 .435

If you do the math you'll see that Western Michigan cannot drop from TUC even if swept this weekend.

If Brown is swept by Hahvahd then the Crimson do become TUC, but unless there are some other significant and unlikely happenings to effect Brown's Opp and Opp Opp percentages Brown stays TUC. (for example, Brown's Opp % is currently .4694. Even getting swept by Hahvahd increases that to about .4714, and Opp % is 50% of the RPI)

Cornell can pick up, at most, 3 comparisons (Providence, St Cloud, Mich. St.) which would get them to 14 comparisons won and a tie for 14th in the PWR with Notre Dame, who we lose to in a H2H comparsion for the 14 spot.